Log Date 08_25_99_12:08:14 ============= Transaction # 1 ============================================== Transaction #: 1 Transaction Code: 0 (New Host Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:08:21 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 2 ============================================== Transaction #: 2 Transaction Code: 35 (New Host Connected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:08:22 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 3 ============================================== Transaction #: 3 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:14:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma})" ============= Transaction # 4 ============================================== Transaction #: 4 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:14:05 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 5 ============================================== Transaction #: 5 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:14:44 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 6 ============================================== Transaction #: 6 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:16:13 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 7 ============================================== Transaction #: 7 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:16:26 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 8 ============================================== Transaction #: 8 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:17:19 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 9 ============================================== Transaction #: 9 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:03 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 10 ============================================== Transaction #: 10 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:15 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 11 ============================================== Transaction #: 11 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 12 ============================================== Transaction #: 12 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 13 ============================================== Transaction #: 13 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-10268 _AN-CBGA3AA0FT 920 207 FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i n sight for asthma sufferers By DELLA BRADSHAW A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t he way for a new range of anti-asthma drugs. Doctors at the Royal Brompton N ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London Chest Hospital have found that cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ rejection after transplant surg ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic asthma sufferers. At the momen t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can produce side eff ects. The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce lls in the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f or some time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing asthmatic symptoms. The results of their research, published in this week's The Lancet, mean drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e ffectively but are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments. Ro yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121. The Financial Times London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 14 ============================================== Transaction #: 14 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-3240 _AN-DFOCRAE8FT 9306 15 FT 15 JUN 93 / UK Company News: Fisons launches asthm a drug in US By PAUL ABRAHAMS FISON S, the healthcare and scientific instruments group, yesterday began marketin g Tilade, an asthma treatment, in the US. 'This is Fisons' last throw of the dice to remain a viable pharmaceutical entity,' said Mr Paul Woodhouse, dru gs analyst at Smith New Court. 'They have to make this launch work'. The com pany is co-promoting the product with Rhone-Poulenc Rorer. The groups aim to position the product for those with mild asthma who use a bronchodilator, s uch as Ventolin, more than three times a week. Whereas bronchodilators help improve symptoms, Tilade is designed to treat the underlying inflammation. F isons is co-promoting Azmacourt, RPR's inhaled steroid medicine, which is de signed for patients using bronchodilators more than three times a day. US do ctors have been reluctant to prescribe inhaled steroids because of potential side-effects. 'The group has a window of opportunity to establish this drug before safer second-generation inhaled steroids come on the market,' said M r Woodhouse. Tilade was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in Janu ary, but Fisons waited for the results of a further clinical trial to show i t was more effective than Intal, its other asthma treatment. Co mpanies:- Fisons. Rhone-Poulenc Rorer. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Ty pes:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 23 ============= Transaction # 15 ============================================== Transaction #: 15 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-17091 _AN-DACAXAB0FT 930 102 FT 02 JAN 93 / UK Company News: Three groups' shares rise on drugs approval By DANIEL GREEN THREE PRODUCTS from British drug companies have received approval for s ale in the US. The move could bring in combined revenues of Dollars 1.5bn (P ounds 980m) a year by 1998. In a year-end spate of approvals, the US Food an d Drug Administration gave the go-ahead for Paxil, an antidepressant made by SmithKline Beecham, Manoplax, a heart drug from Boots, and Tilade, an asthm a treatment developed by Fisons. Paxil, branded as Seroxat in Europe, should be the biggest seller of the three. Analysts believe it could become one of only a handful of 'blockbuster' drugs with sales of eventually of more than Dollars 1bn a year throughout the world. Sales in the US should begin in th e next few weeks. SmithKline Beecham shares rose 12p to 496p on New Year's E ve. The approval of Fisons' Tilade ends a long period of uncertainty for the company. The drug, upon which Fisons has pinned hopes for rapid growth in t he 1990s, has been awaiting US approval for almost six years. In a departure from the company's usual practice, it will co-promote Tilade with Rhone-Pou lenc Rorer, the US-based pharmaceuticals subsidiary of Rhone-Poulenc, the fr ench chemicals group. In return, Fisons will co-promote Azmacort, RPR's asth ma treatment, which works by a different mechanism. Tilade will not be launc hed in the US until the second quarter of 1993, but its shares advanced 15p to 245p on New Year's Eve. Fisons also announced that it was abandoning atte mpts to revamp production of one of the suspended drugs, Iron Dextran, a blo od product, to meet FDA requirements. Boots was given a bigger boost than it expected by the terms of the approval of Manoplax. The FDA's advisory commi ttee had recommended approval only for heart patients who could not tolerate the class of treatments called ACE inhibitors. The ruling allows Manoplax t o be given to any heart patient not responding to other treatments. Analysts forecast sales rising to Dollars 250m a year by 1998, and Boots shares resp onded with a gain of 12p to 561p. The FDA approved a fourth UK product, Indi clor, an imaging agent used in the treatment of cancer and made by Amersham International. Although sales are likely to be small in relation to the size of the company, Amersham shares rose 17p to 619p. Drug shares lifted, Page 13 Companies:- SmithKline Beecham. Boots. Fis ons. Rhone Poulenc Rorer. Countries:- GBZ United K ingdom, EC. USZ USA. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceu tical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products. TECH L icences. TECH Sales agreements. MKTS Market Data. The F inancial Times London Page 8 ============= Transaction # 16 ============================================== Transaction #: 16 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-163 _AN-BENBQAB8FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / International Company News: Astra jumps 45% before tax By JOHN BURTON STOCKHOLM ASTRA, the Swedish pharma-ceutical company, yesterday exceeded market expectations by posting a 45 per cent jump in pre- tax profits to SKr757m (Dollars 122.4m) for the first quarter of 1991 as sal es of its stomach ulcer drug Losec doubled. Analysts had predicted a 35 per cent growth in earnings for Astra, which was the best performer on the Stock holm bourse last year. The company, headed by Mr Hakan Mogren, had revised u pward its forecast for the year, saying profits would climb by 30 per cent t o SKr3.3bn. Its previous forecast had estimated growth at 25 per cent. Opera ting profits increased by 22 per cent to SKr598m. Improved net interest inco me from Astra's large cash reserves, which totalled SKr5bn at the end of Mar ch, and favourable exchange rates for income from its foreign subsidiaries c ontributed to the buoyant pre-tax earnings. Sales during the period increase d by 27 per cent to SKr2.74bn, with turnover from Losec, Astra's largest-sel ling product, increasing to SKr577m from SKr284m a year ago. Marketing of Lo sec by licensees, primarily Merck in the US, raised the drug's total sales t o SKr880m from SKr360m. Losec suffered a setback in the US in January when t he US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) refused to approve the drug for fir st-line treatment of all ulcers. Astra said yesterday that it is holding tal ks with the FDA on widening its approval of Losec usage and it predicted tha t the FDA will make a decision in the near future. Losec was also introduced last month in Japan, potentially the biggest national market for the drug a fter the US. Drugs for the treatment of gastrointestinal diseases, dominated by Losec, had total sales of SKr626m, a 88 per cent increase. Drugs for res piratory diseases, however, remain Astra's largest product group, with sales climbing to SKr643m, a 26 per cent rise. The Turbohaler, an inhaler which d elivers medication for asthma patients, has boosted sales for two asthma dru gs. Sales of the new asthma agent Pulmicort increased by 57 per cent to SKr2 64m, while sales for the older bronchial drug Bricanyl rose by 19 per cent t o SKr182m. The Financial Times London Page 25 Pho tograph Hakan Mogren, led Astra to exceed market forecasts (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 17 ============================================== Transaction #: 17 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-3241 _AN-DFOCRAE7FT 9306 15 FT 15 JUN 93 / UK Company News: Fisons launches asthm a drug in US By PAUL ABRAHAMS FISON S, the healthcare and scientific instruments group, yesterday began marketin g Tilade, an asthma treatment, in the US. 'This is Fisons' last throw of the dice to remain a viable pharmaceutical entity,' said Mr Paul Woodhouse, dru gs analyst at Smith New Court. 'They have to make this launch work.' Fisons' s shares closed up 6 1/2 p at 161 1/2 p. The company is co-promoting the pro duct with Rhone-Poulenc Rorer and is marketing Tilade with a combined sales force of 800 people. The groups aim to position the product for those with m ild asthma who use a bronchodilator, such as Ventolin, more than three times a week. Whereas bronchodilators help improve symptoms, Tilade is designed t o treat the underlying inflammation. Fisons is co-promoting Azmacourt, RPR's inhaled steroid medicine, which is designed for patients using bronchodilat ors more than three times a day. US doctors have been reluctant to prescribe inhaled steroids because of potential side-effects. 'The group has a window of opportunity to establish this drug before safer second-generation inhale d steroids come on the market,' says Mr Woodhouse. Tilade was approved by th e Food and Drug Administration in January, but the company waited for the re sults of a further clinical trial to show the medicine was more effective th an Intal, its other asthma treatment. Intal's sales last year were Pounds 19 0m. Tilade's were Pounds 26.1m. Companies:- Fisons. Rhone-Poulenc Rorer. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom , EC. USZ United States of America. Industries:- P 2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Product s & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 23 ============= Transaction # 18 ============================================== Transaction #: 18 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8155 _AN-CBSB3ACFFT 9202 19 FT 19 FEB 92 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drugs cl eared By DANIEL GREEN BETA AGONISTS , a class of asthma drugs attacked last year for possible deadly side effect s, were yesterday given a clean bill of health by the UK Committee on Safety and Health of Medicines. The news gave Glaxo a boost ahead of its interim f igures tomorrow - the company dominates UK sales of beta agonists with its p roducts Ventolin and Serevent. Glaxo's shares rose 8p to 848p. Other compani es selling them include Schering Plough of the US, Ciba-Geigy of Switzerland and Astra of Sweden. The CSM report runs counter to evidence revealed in Ca nadian studies last year which seemed to link the use of beta agonists with the deaths of some asthma sufferers. The controversy is likely to be revived shortly when the latest set of results from the Canadian studies are publis hed. Doctors expect them to repeat the findings first publicised last year. The CSM report says 'the evidence does not suggest that the use of beta agon ists is associated with asthma mortality'. It found that the death rate per 100,000 people from asthma was the same as 10 years ago, despite a trebling of the number of prescriptions in that time. It nevertheless recommends chan ges in the wording on the data sheets, which doctors use when prescribing dr ugs. 'Patients should be warned against repeatedly increasing the prescribed dose of a beta agonist without medical advice,' it says. Allen & Hanburys, a Glaxo subsidiary, said it would examine its data sheets 'to ensure consist ency with the CSM's recommendations'. Dr Michael Rudolph, of Ealing Hospital , London, a member of the International Asthma Council - a newly-formed grou p concerned about possible dangers of the class of drugs - said yesterday: ' Many people feel that beta agonists have been useful, but patients can over- use their medication'. In 1989 the National Health Service spent Pounds 217m , or 8 per cent of its drugs budget, on treatments for the country's 3m asth matics. The US Food and Drug Administration is still evaluating the class of drugs in the light of the Canadian and other studies. The Fina ncial Times London Page 22 ============= Transaction # 19 ============================================== Transaction #: 19 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-13201 _AN-EGVBQAASFT 940 721 FT 21 JUL 94 / Merck-Celltech dealon asthma drug By DANIEL GREEN The biggest corporate deal yet to be signed by a UK biotechnology company is set to be announced t oday between Celltech and Merck, the biggest US drugs manufacturer. The two will collaborate on an asthma drug invented by Celltech. Codenamed CDP840, i t has been successful in early clinical trials. Merck will largely pay for t he much more expensive later rounds of trials. The deal will bring Merck and Slough-based Celltech into direct competition with Europe's biggest drugs c ompany Glaxo, which has a deal with Icos, the Seattle-based biotechnology co mpany, to develop a similar drug. It reinforces Merck's challenge in asthma, a sector worth at least Dollars 4bn (Pounds 2.6bn) a year and growing at 15 per cent annually. Glaxo dominates with two drugs, Ventolin and Becotide. O ther big-selling products in the area are made by Astra, of Sweden, Fisons, of the UK, and Boehringer Ingelheim, of Germany. Merck has already signalled its intention to fight its way into the asthma sector and has a drug of its own in the later stages of clinical trials called MK-476. It would be launc hed a year or two before the Celltech product and both could be on the marke t by the end of the decade. For Celltech, the deal represents a vote of conf idence in its product pipeline, as well as bringing in cash. The drug belong s to a class, phosphodiesterase IV inhibitors, which holds out the promise o f a once-a-day tablet to replace steroid inhalers. Several other companies a re working on similar drugs, including Icos/Glaxo. Celltech claims that its drug is either further down the development route than rivals or performs be tter in clinical trials even at high doses. It has now completed phase I tri als at Guy's Hospital, London, and Phase II trials are scheduled to start in September. Celltech has been in talks with at least eight companies on coll aborating over the asthma drug since it decided last autumn that it wanted a large partner to shoulder the burden of running large-scale clinical trials . It already has a collaborative deal with the German chemicals company Baye r to develop a drug for treatment of septic shock. US drugs groups, Page 28 Companies:- Celltech. Merck and Co Inc. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. USZ United States of A merica. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. P8731 Commercial Physical Research. Types:- COMP Strategic links & Joint venture. TECH Products & Product use. The Financial Times London Page 23 ============= Transaction # 20 ============================================== Transaction #: 20 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-14029 _AN-CAQBUAFTFT 920 117 FT 17 JAN 92 / US drug regulator criticises Fisons p roduct By DANIEL GREEN FISONS' most promising product has been criticised by the US Food and Drug Administratio n (FDA), casting a shadow over the prospects for profits growth at the UK dr ug company. The FDA controls products which go on sale in the Dollars 60bn ( Pounds 33.50bn) a year US drugs market. Documents released under the Freedom of Information Act show that UK production of Tilade, an asthma drug for wh ich sales were once forecast by analysts to reach Pounds 500m a year by 1992 , has been breaking US regulations. The FDA said Tilade's production methods 'do not conform to NDAs (new drug application regulations)'. It criticised the manufacturing process of Tilade dispensers and said that testing of the drug during production was not accurate enough. The report also listed inade quacies in quality control of another asthma drug, Intal, as well as Opticro m, an eye treatment, and Imferon, an blood-iron treatment. Fisons said yeste rday: 'Tilade production issues raised by the FDA have been answered satisfa ctorily. There are no further undisclosed issues.' It hopes to get US approv al within months. Tilade is intended to replace Intal, which has been the ma instay of Fisons profits growth since the 1970s. However, Tilade has failed to secure US approval in spite of statements from Fisons on several occasion s over the past 18 months that approval was imminent. The drug is available in several countries, including the UK, but revenues in 1992 will probably b e less than Pounds 50m. The FDA has told Fisons that it might be committing a felony under US law if the drug were shipped to the US without changing th e production process. The criticisms of Tilade production have come to light two days after the resignation of Mr John Kerridge, Fisons' chairman and ch ief executive, on grounds of ill-health. His sickness had probably been exac erbated by controversy surrounding the company over the last four months, ac cording to Mr Patrick Egan, his temporary replacement at Fisons. The shares have lost one third of their value since the summer and the company issued a profits warning in December. FDA sets record on approvals, Page 14 The Financial Times London Page 19 ============= Transaction # 21 ============================================== Transaction #: 21 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-12903 _AN-CJSB0AABFT 921 019 FT 19 OCT 92 / Chemists call for right to sell more drugs over the counter By PAUL ABRAHAMS BRITAIN'S high street chemists have called for the right to add 51 popu lar drugs to the list of products they can sell over the counter without a d octor's prescription. The Royal Pharmaceutical Society, which represents and licenses pharmacists, says the drugs - which include Glaxo's anti-ulcer med icine Zantac, the world's best-selling drug with annual sales of Pounds 1.6b n - had a proven track-record of safety. Its recommendation follows a meetin g last week between the Medicines Control Agency, which licenses drugs in th e UK, and industry associations to discuss speeding-up procedures for switch ing drugs from prescription to over-the-counter status. The drugs include Za ntac's arch-rival Tagamet, marketed by SmithKline Beecham. Other leading pro ducts include Wellcome's best-selling herpes treatment Zovirax, which has al ready received OTC licences in Germany and New Zealand, its antihistamine dr ug Semprex, Schering-Plough's antihistamine drug Clarityn and SmithKline's a ntibiotic ointment Bactro-ban. Fisons' two asthma treatments, Intal and Tila de, are listed as are Pfizer's arthritis drug Feldane and the US group's ant i-fungal treatment Diflucan. The recommendations come at a time when governm ents, anxious to contain rising health costs, are increasingly keen to switc h prescription medicines which are largely paid for by government into OTC p roducts paid for by patients. Companies are keen to switch because they can extend drugs' revenue stream after their patents expire. In some cases, sale s can be multiplied more than fivefold, although the marketing costs of OTC products are higher than those of prescription medicines. A number of pharma ceutical groups are teaming up with consumer products companies to help them switch their products. These include SmithKline Beecham with Marion Merrell Dow of the US; Procter & Gamble, America's leading OTC company, with Syntex of the US; and Johnson & Johnson with Merck, both of the US. Wellcome has s aid it is looking for a European OTC partner. The Financial Tim es London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 22 ============================================== Transaction #: 22 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-3241 _AN-DIOCVABUFT 9309 15 FT 15 SEP 93 / World Trade News: Victory for Glaxo on asthma drug in US By PAUL ABRAHAMS GLAXO, Europe's biggest pharmaceutical group, will continue not to face gen eric competition in the US against its second best-selling drug, Ventolin, f ollowing a meeting of two Food and Drug Administration advisory committees y esterday. The committees, covering pulmonary and oncology affairs, and gener ic products, concluded they could not yet agree a way for generic companies to produce versions of off-patent asthma treatments delivered through inhale rs. Although Ventolin is off-patent in the US, there is no method for generi cs groups to manufacture a device that delivers the correct dosage into the lungs. The two bodies were concerned about both the safety and efficacy of g eneric inhaled asthma products. They decided further work was required to cr eate the protocols for generic devices to be licensed. The decision is posit ive for Glaxo, and Schering-Plough of the US, whose drug Proventil was also being considered. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. < XX> Countries:- USZ United States of America. Industri es:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- < TP>COMP Company News. The Financial Times London P age 10 ============= Transaction # 23 ============================================== Transaction #: 23 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:18 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-152 _AN-CL3BJACDFT 92123 0 FT 30 DEC 92 / Glaxo wins US approval for migraine dru g By DANIEL GREEN GLAXO, the UK's l argest pharmaceuticals company, yesterday secured approval in the US for the sale of what will be one of its biggest selling drugs of the 1990s, sumatri ptan, a migraine treatment. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which co ntrols drugs sold in the US, approved the injectable version. The tablets ar e likely to be approved late in 1993. Approval came more quickly than some o bservers had feared: the drug does not treat a life threatening condition an d so was thought to be low on the FDA's list of priorities. Approval helped Glaxo shares rise 27p to 774p. Trading was heavy in London and New York, whe re the shares are also quoted. Sumatriptan should be available on prescripti on in the US by late March under the name Imitrex, Glaxo said. Its brand nam e in most other markets is Imigran. Some 33 countries have already approved the drug, in spite of criticism, especially in France, of its price. Glaxo c an charge a high price - about Pounds 40 for two doses - because sumatriptan is much more effective than rival treatments for most patients. In Glaxo's last financial year, to June 1992, sales of sumatriptan reached Pounds 43m. Analysts believe sales for the current year will more than double. Within fi ve years, the drug could be a 'blockbuster', usually defined in the industry as having sales of more than Dollars 1bn (Pounds 600m) a year. About half s hould be in the US. US approval is important for Glaxo, the world's second l argest drug company, because its best-selling ulcer treatment, Zantac, is lo sing market share to a new rival, Losec, made by Swedish company Astra. Howe ver, sumatriptan is unlikely to replace Zantac as the company's main source of profit. Zantac sales are still growing, while sumatriptan is only one, al beit the most important, of a new generation of Glaxo drugs. The others are Serevent, an asthma treatment, Zofran, which reduces nausea in chemotherapy patients, and Flixonase, an anti-inflammatory designed to help people with a llergies. Between them, these four could account for 25 per cent of Glaxo's sales within five years, said Mr Jonathan Gelles, an analyst with New York s tockbroker, Wertheim Schroder. London Stock Exchange, Page 26 T he Financial Times London Page 11 ============= Transaction # 24 ============================================== Transaction #: 24 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:18:19 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 25 ============================================== Transaction #: 25 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:19:13 Selec. 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Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 27 ============================================== Transaction #: 27 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:19:56 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma ventolin})" ============= Transaction # 28 ============================================== Transaction #: 28 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:19:59 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 8390 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 29 ============================================== Transaction #: 29 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:20:51 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 8 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma ventolin}) and (title {gl axo})" ============= Transaction # 30 ============================================== Transaction #: 30 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:20:54 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 141 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 31 ============================================== Transaction #: 31 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:21:20 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 32 ============================================== Transaction #: 32 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:21:42 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1 ============= Transaction # 33 ============================================== Transaction #: 33 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:22:22 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 206926 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 34 ============================================== Transaction #: 34 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:23:39 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar}) and (title {glaxo})" ============= Transaction # 35 ============================================== Transaction #: 35 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:23:44 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: {ERR {Status 1} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {No matching records fo und} ============= Transaction # 36 ============================================== Transaction #: 36 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:23:53 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar})" ============= Transaction # 37 ============================================== Transaction #: 37 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:23:55 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 2046 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 38 ============================================== Transaction #: 38 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:24:06 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 39 ============================================== Transaction #: 39 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:24:07 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 40 ============================================== Transaction #: 40 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:26:07 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 41 ============================================== Transaction #: 41 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:26:16 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 42 ============================================== Transaction #: 42 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:26:47 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar import export})" ============= Transaction # 43 ============================================== Transaction #: 43 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:26:53 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 40632 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 44 ============================================== Transaction #: 44 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:27:07 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-3729 _AN-CIJB4AFOFT 9209 10 FT 10 SEP 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Pakistan can halt sugar imports By FARHAN BOKHARI < DATELINE> ISLAMABAD SURPLUS SUGAR stocks in Pakistan a re set to eliminate the country's need to import sugar, although the potenti al for export remains unclear. Pakistan's total production is expected to hi t 2.6m tonnes by the end of the 1992-93 fiscal year, up from 2.3m tonnes in 1991-92. Government officials estimate that private traders are holding 132, 000 tonnes of stocks, and that is expected to start rising next month as the new production season begins at sugar mills. The rise in sugar production h as partly resulted from an increase in the number of sugar mills as well as improvements in the recovery rate of sugar cane and beet. Pakistan started w ith 2 sugar mills with a daily sugar cane crushing capacity of 1,500 tonnes at the time of its independence in 1947; today there are 54, with an aggrega te capacity of 175,000 tonnes. The rise in production has allowed cuts in su gar imports. In June this year, imports of white refined sugar fell to just 538 tonnes, down from 3,480 tonnes in May. Last year, 36,819 tonnes was impo rted in June, following 48,290 tonnes in May. However, the country's sugar e xport potential remains unclear. With countries such as Brazil and Cuba havi ng lower costs of production, Pakistani sugar might not be able to compete, said one senior official. Up to 100,000 tonnes of sugar is estimated to be s muggled annually to neighbouring Iran and Afghanistan. That has made it diff icult to assess if a surplus will be left after meeting domestic consumption , including smuggling, in order to set aside large quantities for export. Ho wever, Pakistan will at least save valuable foreign exchange by meeting its sugar requirements domestically. Last year Dollars 36.8m was spent on import ing sugar, which was down from Dollars 160.5m, a year earlier. The Financial Times London Page 32 ============= Transaction # 45 ============================================== Transaction #: 45 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:27:16 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-12369 _AN-EKBD9AA5FT 941 102 FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies < /HEADLINE> By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER MOSCOW, HAVANA Russia has suspended shipments of oil to Cuba because the Caribbean state has not met its promised level of sugar exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov, the Russian trade minister, said yester day. The cut in supplies to a country which once enjoyed the closest links w ith the former Soviet Union is expected to further damage the recession-hit Cuban economy. The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count ries which once enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w orld market level - including former Soviet states which are now independent countries. Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba, but had received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the amount agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h ad agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t o the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to i mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the ba rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable. An official of the Cuban sugar organ isation, Cubazucar, said the deal, agreed last December, was still active - although only partly fulfilled. 'It doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho wever, Cuba would not be able to deliver sugar until December or January, af ter this year's harvest. Countries:- RUZ Russia, Eas t Europe. CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 46 ============================================== Transaction #: 46 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:27:51 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {sugar import export}) and (title {cuba})" ============= Transaction # 47 ============================================== Transaction #: 47 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:27:58 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 46 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 48 ============================================== Transaction #: 48 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:28:15 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11487 _AN-EG2DTAF1FT 940 729 FT 29 JUL 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Bumper Q ueensland sugar output set to topple Cuba from pole position By REUTERS BRISBANE Aust ralia is set to become the world's biggest raw sugar exporter this year, wit h a high sugar content cane crop in Queensland expected to push output beyon d the forecast 4.4m tonnes, reports Reuters from Brisbane. The state's sugar output is likely to rise to over 4.6m tonnes according to the Canegrowers g roup. Mr Ian Ballantyne, Canegrowers general manager, said that the signs af ter a month of harvesting indicated that the record crop of 32m tonnes of ca ne had above average sugar content and would beat earlier sugar production f orecasts. 'We have seen around a 10 per cent increase in the actual size of crop but about 15 per cent increase in the content of sugar,' he said. 'We d efinitely have 4.4m tonnes of sugar there but probably more.' About 85 per c ent of Australia's raw sugar is exported with 3.36m tonnes going overseas la st year. This made Australian sugar exports the world's second largest after Cuba's 3.6m tonnes. Australia is hoping to take the number one position thi s year with a third successive good crop and with Cuba's sugar production fa lling to about 4m tonnes. Last year Queensland produced 4.02m tonnes of suga r with the only other growing state, New South Wales, producing its annual a verage of around 200,000 tonnes. 'There is just no question that the 1994 gr owing season will produce a very good crop of sugar after a bit of a ragged start,' Mr Ballantyne said. So far, only about 20 per cent of the country's crop has been harvested. Countries:- AUZ Australia. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. P2061 Raw Cane Sugar. Types:- MKTS Production. T he Financial Times London Page 24 ============= Transaction # 49 ============================================== Transaction #: 49 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:28:43 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-12873 _AN-CDOBJAC3FT 920 415 FT 15 APR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba fac ed with worst sugar crop in years By REUTER HAVANA CUBA IS straining to finish what c ould be its worst sugar harvest in recent years because it says it needs eve ry tonne to help keep its crisis-hit economy afloat, reports Reuter from Hav ana. After maintaining a virtual news blackout on the 1991-1992 sugar crop f or five months, the Caribbean island's government is now making the harvest a national public issue. 'Our sole option. . . is not to lose a single tonne of sugar,' it said. The government urged the country's sugar workers to mak e a maximum effort over the next few weeks, a message reinforced by daily te levision propaganda spots focusing on the harvest. The official media descri be the current season as one of the most difficult ever experienced by Cuba, which has traditionally been the world's biggest exporter of sugar. The 199 1-1992 harvest started late and has been bedevilled by shortages of oil, lub ricants and spare parts that are essential to keep mechanical harvesters and mills running. Adding to the urgency is the possible onset of spring rains in May which could disrupt a late-finishing harvest. Even more worrying for Cuba, the difficulties come at a time when it needs every tonne of sugar it can produce to exchange for vital imports of oil, machinery spares and food. The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 50 ============================================== Transaction #: 50 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:29:10 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-16799 _AN-EAGC3AFBFT 940 107 FT 07 JAN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Washingt on holds key to Cuba's farming future - Agricultural exports could blossom i f the US lifted its embargo By CANUTE JAMES Cuban agriculture could become a significant force on markets, incl uding the US, if Washington's trade embargo on the Caribbean island was lift ed, according to a group of experts that discussed the island's agriculture at a recent conference in Miami on Central American and Caribbean trade. It also concluded, however, that it would take the country many years after the ending of an embargo to adjust to a global market very different from that which prevailed at the time of the 1959 revolution. It was also thought unli kely that the island republic would be able to regain any of the significant markets it lost, as these had been taken over by other producers who would not easily be dislodged. 'Cuba has not been sitting still in agriculture des pite the many setbacks,' said Mr John Lamb, associate director for internati onal trade of Chemonics International of the US. 'The sector employs 19 per cent of the country's workers and accounts for 75 per cent of its foreign ea rnings.' The changes to Cuba's agriculture that were implemented by the gove rnment last September were intended to deal with current problems of product ion shortfalls, and did not seek to lift production to find new markets, the experts concluded. The Cuban government has allowed increased private parti cipation in agriculture with the establishment of new co-operative farms and individually-run farms - but these still operate within the framework of th e state's continuing control of the economy. The sugar industry, the main pi llar of Cuban agriculture, would face some difficulty in regaining markets e ven if the embargo was lifted, Mr Lamb said. He noted that before the 1959 r evolution, Cuba had a half of the US sugar market at a time when US cane sug ar imports were about 6m tonnes a year. But US cane sugar consumption was no w only about 3m tonnes a year. The experts reasoned that, if the trade embar go ended, Cuba could be attractive to US investors in agriculture wanting an offshore location. Mr Lamb said the island had good soil and flat land, ade quate water, a large, trained labour force, minimal pest problems, good port s and a sound internal transportation infrastructure. The Cuban citrus indus try was supported by an extensive research system, said Mr Gene Albrigo, a h orticulturalist with the Citrus Research and Education Centre of the Univers ity of Florida. 'Over 60 per cent of the trees are under 15 years old. There are adequate facilities in the packing houses, of which there are 25, with two more being built. The industry has several forms of joint agreements wit h Chilean, British, Spanish, Israeli and Greek companies.' Cuba's impact on the US or other markets would not be immediate if the embargo was lifted, th e experts concluded. They expected that first efforts would be for an expans ion of domestic food crops for local consumption, and a rehabilitation of th e sugar industry because of its importance to the national economy. It would also take some time for the expected disputes over land tenure and land own ership to be resolved. The US government has warned prospective foreign inve stors in Cuba not to become involved with property that was seized by the go vernment and could be the subject of legal disputes if and when there is a c hange of government in the island. 'Salinity is also a very big and growing problem,' reported Mr Albrigo. 'This has reached a crisis in some parts of t he coast and across the centre of the island. If this continues it will be a disaster, particularly for fruit and vegetables.' In addition to expanded p roduction of the traditional commodities (sugar, citrus, coffee, tobacco) to satisfy a new market, Cuba has the potential to become an important source of horticultural products for North America. Some participants in the confer ence concluded that this was an area of the island's agriculture that could bloom in a post-embargo Cuba. 'Cuba was once a major exporter of vegetables, but the market has been taken over by Mexico since the embargo,' said Mr La mb. 'Cuban access to the US market in the future will have an adverse impact on producers in the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and Florida, especia lly in the production of vegetables and horticulture.' Mr Carlos Balerdi, a tropical fruit crops agent in the agricultural extension service of Dade Cou nty, Florida, thought that one major hurdle for Cuban agriculture if and whe n the embargo was lifted could be psychological. 'One problem is that agricu ltural work has been used as a penalty for dissidents and those trying to le ave the island,' he said. 'This may cause a very negative psychological reac tion to agriculture in a future Cuba.' Countries:- CU Z Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Su gar Beets. P0174 Citrus Fruits. P01 Agricultural Production-Crops. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Foreign tr ade. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 51 ============================================== Transaction #: 51 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:30:02 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-13478 _AN-DDWC9ABJFT 930 423 FT 23 APR 93 / World Trade News: Cuba barters its su gar By HAIG SIMONIAN MILAN < /DATELINE> ITALGRANI, the Italian cereals and foods group based in Na ples, has signed a L100bn (Pounds 42m) agreement with Cuba to supply semi-fi nished food products in return for sugar, writes Haig Simonian in Milan. The deal is a further sign of the current revival in countertrade for countries with problems obtaining hard currencies or in economic difficulties. The Cu ban economy has faced a growing crisis following the gradual withdrawal of a id and supplies from the former Soviet Union. It has also suffered from the fall in price of some raw-material exports, notably sugar. Italgrani will su pply cereals, vegetable oils and pasta products, worth about L100bn, in retu rn for Cuban sugar of a similar value. Italgrani's deal, double the size of a similar one between July and November last year, will take effect in the s econd half of this year. Companies:- Italgrani. Countries:- CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P2043 Cereal Breakfast Foods. Types:- COMP Buy -in & Buy-out. The Financial Times London Page 7 ============= Transaction # 52 ============================================== Transaction #: 52 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:30:25 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 53 ============================================== Transaction #: 53 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:30:33 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 54 ============================================== Transaction #: 54 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:30:56 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar})" ============= Transaction # 55 ============================================== Transaction #: 55 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:30:57 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 2046 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 56 ============================================== Transaction #: 56 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:31:02 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 57 ============================================== Transaction #: 57 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:31:13 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 58 ============================================== Transaction #: 58 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:31:17 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1 ============= Transaction # 59 ============================================== Transaction #: 59 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:32:04 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 207189 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 60 ============================================== Transaction #: 60 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:32:14 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 61 ============================================== Transaction #: 61 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:32:32 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 62 ============================================== Transaction #: 62 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:32:54 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-8150 _AN-DBUAKACNFT 9302 20 FT 20 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture (Week in t he markets): Sugar breaks into higher ground: By RIC HARD MOONEY A SERIES of bullish developments this week enab led the world sugar market to break free of the strait-jacket that had been confining prices for some time. Having traded mostly between 8 cents and 8.5 cents a lb since last autumn the prompt March futures position at New York' s Cocoa, Sugar and Coffee Exchange leapt in mid-week to 9 cents, a level las t seen on November 2, and moved on to a five-month high of 9.53 cents before edging back yesterday afternoon. Market sentiment has hardened in recent we eks as analysts' assessments of the likely sugar supply surplus in the 1992- 93 season have been reduced. London trader ED & F. Man now expects supply to exceed demand by some 1.5m tonnes (about 1.3 per cent of annual production) , compared with the 3.4m tonnes it was forecasting earlier. And this week C. Czarnikow, another London trade house, which in November was forecasting an 830,000-tonnes surplus, this week adjusted this to a 370,000-tonne deficit (after allowing for 'unrecorded disappearance' of 600,000 tonnes ). However, the factor that changed firmness into strength this week was talk circulati ng among traders that Cuba had been forced to buy 100,000 tonnes of sugar fr om Thailand to enable it to honour supply commitments to China and other Asi an countries. Cuban sugar minister Mr Juan Herrera warned earlier this month that lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the start-up of a significa nt number of mills'. Also supporting the market were: a surprise announcemen t of a 160,000-tonne Kenyan buying tender for next Monday; a 14,000-tonne Mo roccan buying tender; talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonnes sale to Indonesia; and a cut in Thailand's harvest forecast from 49.15m tonn es of cane to 43m tonnes. 'There have been several important changes in the statistical outlook for the 1992-93 crop cycle with adjustments to the suppl y side of the balance predominating,' said Czarnikow in the February 17 issu e of its Sugar Review. 'Production for the season has fallen by some 1.32m t onnes since our world forecasts in November and is now expected to slip belo w last season's output by some 1.87m tonnes.' The trade house now estimates world sugar production at 114.57m tonnes, compared with 115.89m in November, and consumption at 114.51m tonnes, compared with 114.46m tonnes. Cocoa pric es put in another steady performance as producers and consumers prepared for next week's International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) negotiations in Geneva. In late trading yesterday the New York market's May position was quoted at Dol lars 932 a tonne, up Dollars 7 on the week. In London, however, that firmnes s was obscured by the dollar's decline against sterling and the London Futur es and Options Exchange's May cocoa contract ended Pounds 3 down on the week at Pounds 734 a tonne. The Geneva meeting will mark the fourth and final at tempt to agree a price-stabilisation pact to replace the moribund one that e xpires on September 30. Delegates were moving towards agreement at the last session, in November, that efforts to steady the market should be based on t he withholding of between 330,000 and 380,000 tonnes of surplus beans from t he market. But they remained far apart on how that was to be financed and on what price range was to be defended. The existing ICCA, agreed in 1986, cea sed to operate as a market support pact early in 1988, when its buffer stock reached the 250,000-tonnes ceiling. All but one of the London Metal Exchang e's contracts finished down on the week, the biggest fall being in copper, w hich closed yesterday at Pounds 1,551.25 a tonne for three months delivery, down Pounds 30.50 on the week. But, as with cocoa's fall, the culprit was th e sterling rally, but for which the price would have been modestly higher. D ealers said the copper market was supported by concern over production stopp ages in Mexico and Papua New Guinea and the expectation of Chinese buying on any dip to Dollars 2,220 a tonne, about Dollars 7 below the dollar equivale nt of yesterday's close. But the market remained trapped in a narrow range, they added, with overhead resistance expected at Dollars 2,231 a tonne. Afte r most of an early fall had been recovered in mid-week the aluminium market ended on the downbeat, with the cash position closing yesterday at Dollars 1 ,204.50 a tonne, down Dollars 4 on the day and Dollars 7.75 on the week. The market had been steady in the morning, underpinned by talk of further produ ction cuts following Alumax's announcement on Thursday that it was reducing output by about 36,000 tonnes a year at its Mount Holly smelter. Fears that the Bonneville Power Administration restrictions could increase energy costs for some US smelters were also providing support. But prices again ran into overhead resistance and fell away during the afternoon. Among the precious metals platinum and palladium prices reversed last week's gains as confidenc e was rocked by nervousness about US economic policy and a report that Japan ese car makers were to cut imports of the metals, both of which are used in exhaust catalysts. Dollar weakness helped gold to mount another assault on t he upper end of its recent Dollars 327-Dollars 332 a troy ounce trading rang e on Tuesday. Once again it was repelled, as was a fresh attempt yesterday. ----------------------------------- LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (As at Thursday's close) ----------------------------------- tonnes ------------ ----------------------- Aluminium +2,100 to 1,650,550 Copper unchgd at 319,425 Lead -650 to 234,425 Nickel +1,176 to 82,164 Zinc +7,600 to 546,600 Tin +15 to 17,135 ----------------- ------------------ Countries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC. P1021 Copper Or es. P0722 Crop Harvesting. P1099 Metal Ores, NEC. P33 Primary Metal Industries. P5051 Metals Service Centers and Offices. T ypes:- MKTS Market data. COSTS Commodity prices. The Financial Times London Page 11 ============= Transaction # 63 ============================================== Transaction #: 63 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:33:37 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-11926 _AN-EKCEGAGJFT 941 103 FT 03 NOV 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba str uggles to revive sugar sector - A look at problems dogging the mainstay of t he country's economy By PASCAL FLETCHER Cuba's sugar harvest, mainstay of the island's economy, could soon begi n to level out after its recent nosedive, but a return to cruising altitude looks a long way off. Just five years ago output was running at a comfortabl e 8m tonnes a year. But then it went into a tailspin. The crop fell to a his toric low of 4m tonnes in 1993-94 from 4.2m tonnes in 1992-93 and 7m tonnes the previous year. This represented lost export earnings over two harvests o f Dollars 1bn, a heavy blow for a sugar-dominated, recession-hit economy who se total export revenue in 1993 was an estimated Dollars 1.7 bn. Faced with continuing severe input shortages and a reduced level of harvestable cane, t he best Cuba can hope for from the 1994-95 season is to slow the decline in its leading export industry. If it can do this, the island may be able to la y some foundations for a future recovery. But it will be a hard slog. Sugar market analysts, such as London trade house ED & F. Man, have already predic ted that Cuban output will continue to fall in 1994-95. Even the Cuban autho rities, normally loath to make any public pre-harvest forecasts, are signall ing that they expect a crop as low as or lower than last year. 'This is not a time for spectacular results measured in large volumes of sugar,' the offi cial workers' daily Trabajadores said in an October 10 editorial. 'Sugar pro duction suffers from a syndrome of cycles, either good or bad. . . if you ha d a bad previous harvest, recovery is difficult,' said Mr Juan Triana Cordov i, deputy director of Havana University's Centre for Studies on the Cuban Ec onomy. It was the sudden collapse after 1990 of crucial Soviet supplies of f uel, fertiliser, herbicides and spares that knocked Cuban sugar production o ff course. Recent harvests have also been buffeted by unseasonal bad weather and slowed by declining efficiency. The antidote proposed by Mr Nelson Torr es, Cuba's minister for sugar, is a short, sharp and above all efficient 199 4-95 harvest. This year's campaign, if it starts this month as usual, will n ot be allowed to extend beyond April. In another change of strategy, all of Cuba's more than 150 mills will be required to join the harvest to maximise production. Last season, more than a dozen below-par mills did not operate, with the result that their machinery was 'cannibalised' for other uses and t heir work forces dispersed. The over-extended 1993-94 harvest, which lasted well beyond May, cut into growing cane reserves and delayed field cultivatio n and mill repairs. Mill managers, struggling to meet pre-set production tar gets and to compensate for industrial breakdowns and inefficiency, harvested cane that could have been left for the coming season. Granma, the official Communist Party newspaper, said in a September 2 article: 'There is going to be once again - it's no secret - a serious shortage of cane'. That echoed a n August, ED & F. Man report warning that the protracted 1993-94 campaign, c ontinuing input shortages and reports of delays in the planting programme me ant that 'further degradation of (Cuba's) sugar production cannot be elimina ted'. As the start of the harvest approaches, sugar workers have been the ta rget of a blitz of official criticism. State media have accused them of duck ing out of eight-hour work schedules, using poor quality seed and failing to weed growing cane. 'Why is the cane in such poor state. . . so full of weed s?' state-run Radio Rebelde asked back in September. Especially targetted fo r criticism were the cane growing co-operatives, the so-called basic units o f co-operative production (UBPCs), created in September, 1993 as part of a d ecentralising reform of Cuba's state-run farming system. 'Why have these UBP Cs still not been able to contain and reverse the sharp collapse of the nati on's greatest resource?' Mr Trabajadores said six weeks ago. Reasons cited f or poor productivity in the cane co-operatives were the lack of incentives, delays in obtaining promised benefits like new housing and even shortages of work clothes like boots. Government officials were studying the possibility of introducing greater material incentives for sugar workers - whether in l ocal or hard currency or in access to consumer goods - like those already av ailable for workers in Cuba's tourist industry. To offset harvest manpower s hortages, Cuba's official trade union organisation, the CTC, is preparing to mobilise 61,000 cane cutters across the island, 25,000 more than last year. This manual cutting force will also help to compensate for cutbacks in mach ine harvesting resulting from shortages of fuel, lubricants and spare parts. On the commercial front, Cuba has maintained a hermetic silence over the st ate of its strategic sugar trade contracts with Russia and China. Traders in London and New York reported as early as June that the country might have p roblems meeting all of its export commitments because of the second consecut ive low harvest. The Cubans were expected to have sought to roll over many o f their commitments into the next crop period, a tactic widely used even whe n the island was producing harvests of about 8m tonnes. The roll-over mechan ism is considerably less drastic than the force majeure declared by Cuba in June, 1993, when torrential rains devastated an already flagging harvest. Countries:- CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries :- P2062 Cane Sugar Refining. P2061 Raw Cane Sugar. P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. Types:- CMMT Comment & Anal ysis. MKTS Production. The Financial Times Lon don Page 35 ============= Transaction # 64 ============================================== Transaction #: 64 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:34:13 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-8550 _AN-DBRCKAF9FT 9302 18 FT 18 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Talk of C uban buying helps to keep sugar price surge going By DAVID BLACKWELL WORLD SUGAR prices continued to surge yest erday as a spate of bullish news this week pushed the market out of the narr ow trading range of recent months. New York's May raw sugar contract, which rose by 0.5 cents on Tuesday, was a further 0.18 ahead in early trading yest erday at 9.69 cents a lb before easing towards the close. At the beginning o f the month it was trading at 8.5 cents. Cuba has been reported buying 100,0 00 tonnes of sugar from Thailand to meet its commitments in China and elsewh ere in Asia. Cuba's harvest is being delayed once again by problems with the country's infrastructure. Mr Juan Herrera, the Cuban sugar minister, said e arlier this month that a lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the star t-up of a significant number of mills'. Thailand, which in November forecast a record 1992-93 harvest of 49.15m tonnes, now expects only 43m tonnes of c ane, compared with 47.43m tonnes last year. Kenya surprised the market with the announcement that it would hold a tender next Monday for 160,000 tonnes of white sugar. Morocco is tendering for 14,000 tonnes of raws, and there is talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonne sale to Indonesia. 'Th ere is a buoyant physical sector, and that has brought the funds back into N ew York,' said one US analyst yesterday. 'Fund buying spurred the market thr ough stubborn resistance at 8.65 to 8.70, and then took it through 9 cents.' 'Basically the market is looking a lot better,' said a London trader. 'Good news has arrived when the market was at its weakest.' He pointed out that e stimates for the world sugar surplus in 1992-93 were coming down. ED &. F. M an, the London trade house, has reduced its forecast surplus from 3.4m tonne s to 1.5m tonnes. Countries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P0722 Crop Harvesting. P2062 Cane Sugar Refining. Types:- COSTS Commodity prices. MKTS Market data . The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 65 ============================================== Transaction #: 65 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:35:54 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-8550 _AN-DBRCKAF9FT 9302 18 FT 18 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Talk of C uban buying helps to keep sugar price surge going By DAVID BLACKWELL WORLD SUGAR prices continued to surge yest erday as a spate of bullish news this week pushed the market out of the narr ow trading range of recent months. New York's May raw sugar contract, which rose by 0.5 cents on Tuesday, was a further 0.18 ahead in early trading yest erday at 9.69 cents a lb before easing towards the close. At the beginning o f the month it was trading at 8.5 cents. Cuba has been reported buying 100,0 00 tonnes of sugar from Thailand to meet its commitments in China and elsewh ere in Asia. Cuba's harvest is being delayed once again by problems with the country's infrastructure. Mr Juan Herrera, the Cuban sugar minister, said e arlier this month that a lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the star t-up of a significant number of mills'. Thailand, which in November forecast a record 1992-93 harvest of 49.15m tonnes, now expects only 43m tonnes of c ane, compared with 47.43m tonnes last year. Kenya surprised the market with the announcement that it would hold a tender next Monday for 160,000 tonnes of white sugar. Morocco is tendering for 14,000 tonnes of raws, and there is talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonne sale to Indonesia. 'Th ere is a buoyant physical sector, and that has brought the funds back into N ew York,' said one US analyst yesterday. 'Fund buying spurred the market thr ough stubborn resistance at 8.65 to 8.70, and then took it through 9 cents.' 'Basically the market is looking a lot better,' said a London trader. 'Good news has arrived when the market was at its weakest.' He pointed out that e stimates for the world sugar surplus in 1992-93 were coming down. ED &. F. M an, the London trade house, has reduced its forecast surplus from 3.4m tonne s to 1.5m tonnes. Countries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P0722 Crop Harvesting. P2062 Cane Sugar Refining. Types:- COSTS Commodity prices. MKTS Market data . The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 66 ============================================== Transaction #: 66 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:36:02 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-3603 _AN-CCMBUADIFT 9203 13 FT 13 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Problems piling up for Caribbean sugar sector - A wave of labour unrest is adding to the woes of a struggling industry, writes Canute James By CANUTE JAMES A WAVE of industrial unrest in the Carib bean sugar industry has compounded earlier problems caused by falling produc tion and changes in important markets. Exporters are having difficulty in re taining traditional markets and no new ones are available; some export quota s have been reduced while some export commitments are not being fulfilled. T he pain is most evident in Barbados, for which the sugar industry is a relat ively small but important pillar of the troubled economy. An eight-week stri ke that delayed the start of this year's harvest has reduced production at a time when the financially strapped industry has been trying to catch its br eath. The industry was shut down late last year because it ran out of money. The privately-owned Barbados Sugar Industry Ltd, which operates the island' s mills, owes a state-owned bank about USDollars 87m. New money has not been available because the government is under pressure to reduce state spending . It took a loan of Pounds 5m from Barclays Bank of the UK to get the indust ry up on its feet again, but preparations by millers to start processing can e in January were frustrated by a strike. Unions demanded an increase in wag es but the millers said they were unable to pay because of their weak financ es. It took the intervention of the country's prime minister to break the im passe. The industry is forecasting production of 50,000 tonnes for this year , which will not be enough to meet its quotas to the European Community and the US while satisfying domestic demand, for which about 73,000 tonnes would be needed. Failure to fill export quotas has also been a major worry for th e Guyanese sugar industry. In each of the past three years the country has p leaded force majeure on scheduled shipments to the European Community as pro duction has faltered because of strikes and poor weather. The industry expec ts to meet its EC quota of 167,000 tonnes this year although production was only 155,000 tonnes last year, 25,000 tonnes more than in 1990. Like other c ountries that fear a loss of their quotas if they do not meet the supply sch edules, Guyana and Barbados may be forced to import sugar for the domestic m arket. 'The logic here is quite simple,' explains a Jamaican trade official. 'The preferential markets such as the EC pay more than the exporters would get on the world market. So they ensure they meet their quotas and then buy cheaply on the world market for domestic consumption. The EC and the US do n ot like this practice, but it is done fairly often.' In Guyana and Barbados efforts are being made to improve the management of the sugar industry and r aise productivity. Booker Tate, a subsidiary of Booker of the UK, is managin g the state-owned industry in Guyana, and will begin running the Barbados in dustry later this year. The marginal improvement in output by the Jamaican i ndustry over the past two years was halted by a two-week strike at the islan d's nine mills that ended this week. This year's target of 230,000 tonnes, i f it is achieved, will allow the island to meet its quota commitments. The a dministrators of the industry in the Caribbean complain that region's market ing and production plans are being adversely affected by changing conditions in important markets, such as the US, where adjustments to import quotas ar e frequent. In the current crop year, for example, most of the Caribbean pro ducers have had their US quota cut by 35 per cent, and others by 10 per cent . These changes, which are influenced mainly by the level of domestic US pro duction, are expected to reduce the Caribbean region's earnings by about USD ollars 70m. The reduction is hitting hardest in the Dominican Republic, wher e industry has been in decline for the past decade. The cut of 35 per cent i n its US quota to 232,500 tonnes this year might have been less painful had it not been for uncertainty over another valuable market. The Dominicans had been supplying between 50,000 tonnes and 225,000 tonnes a year to the Sovie t Union. But with the break-up of the union Dominican industry officials and bankers say there is uncertainty about future of sales to the Commonwealth of Independent States, as it is now called. Like most of the other Caribbean producers, production costs in the Dominican Republic, which produced 628,0 00 tonnes last year, exceed world market prices. Strikes and production cost s are not likely to be among the problems facing the sugar sector in Cuba, t he region's largest producer. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union, which was the island's major market, short term contracts with members of the CIS have brought some relief. But a significant reduction in output is likely th is year because of a late start to harvesting and a shortage of fuel which h as overtaken the embattled economy. There are indications that output this y ear will be about 1m tonnes less than last year's 7.6m tonnes. The US indust ry, however, is already weighing the consequences of the changes in Cuba's m arkets, with suggestions that this could leave the island with millions of t onnes to dispose of on the world market. Depression of prices would be compo unded by a likely loss of market for some of Cuba's neighbours, particularly if there were political changes on the island. 'In a post-Castro Cuba, the US would try to assist a new government if it is democratic,' suggests Mr Ju lio Herrera, president of the Caribbean Basin Sugar Producers Group. 'Cuba w ill inevitably turn to the US as a market for its sugar. The US will be told that it has a moral obligation to buy Cuban sugar.' The Financ ial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 67 ============================================== Transaction #: 67 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:36:35 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-1721 _AN-BECBBACTFT 9105 03 FT 03 MAY 91 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar sur plus estimate soars By DAVID BLACKWELL THE WORLD sugar supply and demand balance is heading for a surplus of 4. 6m tonnes for 1990-91 - the biggest surplus since 1982-83, according to ED & F. Man, the London trade house. Man's sharp upward revision of the surplus from an estimate of 1.9m tonnes comes in a week when sugar prices hit their lowest levels for more than three years. On Tuesday the London Daily Price f or raws was Dollars 194 a tonne, the lowest level since November 1987. The l atest estimate compares with a 3.33m tonne surplus predicted by FO Licht, th e German statistician, in February, and a surplus of 1.2m tonnes made in the same month by Czarnikow, another large London trade house, which is expecte d to revise its estimate upwards later this month. Man's latest monthly suga r review predicts that prices will be further depressed by the 'weight of th e existing, as well as the impending supply surpluses'. When added to a revi sed surplus of 1.7m tonnes for 1989-90, the total accumulation of sugar from the two seasons is 6.3m tonnes. Production this season is now put at 113.8m tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of 110.4m tonnes and 1989-90 prod uction of 108.7m tonnes. 'This is the largest annual increase since 1981-82; with beet production increasing by over 5 per cent and cane by 4.4 per cent and it is a testimony to the response of sugar producers to the higher worl d prices in 1989 and 1990,' says the review. Adjustments to production estim ates for China, India and Thailand account for 2.1m tonnes or more than 60 p er cent of the total increase. The consumption forecast is little changed at 109.2m tonnes. About two thirds of this season's forecast surplus is held i n stock by traditional importing countries such as the US, India and Mexico, says Man. Usually these countries only re-export at times of high world pri ces, but this season, 'influenced more by logistical and domestic financial considerations', both India and Mexico have sold sugar. Recent talk of Mexic an sales to China has been one of the factors depressing prices. Man believe s that any purchases would be surplus to China's domestic needs, and that it is rebuilding depleted stocks. The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 68 ============================================== Transaction #: 68 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:36:49 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 207189 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 69 ============================================== Transaction #: 69 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:37:04 Selec. Rec. #: 14 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-6585 _AN-DE0B8AG0FT 9305 27 FT 27 MAY 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar pri ce down further despite lower Cuban crop By DAVID BL ACKWELL FINAL CONFIRMATION that Cuba's sugar crop will be o nly 4.2m tonnes compared with last year's 7m tonnes did not prevent a furthe r decline in New York raw sugar prices, writes David Blackwell. In late trad ing yesterday the July contract was down 0.63 at 11.15 cents a lb - well off the high of 13.26 on May 17. The fall came in spite of Monday night's annou ncement from Cubazucar, which put the outcome of the troubled harvest well b elow all recent trade estimates. Czarnikow, the London trade house, last wee k estimated Cuban production at 5.5m tonnes, a figure matched this week by E D & F. Man, also of London. Production in Cuba, the world's biggest exporter , has been hit by bad weather and problems with the country's crumbling infr astructure. Falls in production in Cuba, Thailand and India have led to earl y predictions of a world surplus this year being changed to predictions of a deficit, averaging around 2m tonnes below consumption. This has been enough to drive prices sharply higher after a flat period between last September a nd February, when nearby New York traded between 8 and 9 cents a lb. However , the market has eased back recently as physical demand for sugar has not be en evident, partly because of the high prices. Countries:- CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcan e and Sugar Beets. Types:- COSTS Commodity prices. The Financial Times London Page 34 ============= Transaction # 70 ============================================== Transaction #: 70 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:37:23 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-12623 _AN-CDPBOADHFT 920 416 FT 16 APR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Supply f ears buoy sugar prices By DAVID BLACKWELL FEARS OF a tighter sugar supply/demand balance in 1992-93 are support ing the world market, according to reports from two London trade houses. Raw sugar prices have recently touched eight-month highs, nudging 10 cents a lb in the New York market, on fears of tight nearby supplies following damage to the South African crop because of drought. The trade houses, ED & F. Man and Czarnikow, both point out in reports published today that in the short t erm the changing export potential in several countries will keep the lid on prices. The increasing likelihood of a 1m-tonne increase in Thailand's crop, compared with the previous season, together with the availability of export able surpluses from India and Cuba, should 'keep significant advances at bay ', Man's latest sugar report says. Man believes that reports of a catastroph ic Cuban crop this season at 5m to 5.5m tonnes are unsupported by the eviden ce and estimates that the crop will come in at about 6.5m tonnes. It is fore casting a crop of more than 5m tonnes in Thailand and 12.6m tonnes in India. The overall balance for the 1991-92 season remains marginally in surplus, M an says, but it suggests that the situation is likely to be even more tightl y balanced in 1992-93. Czarnikow's sugar review points out that the extent o f the South African drought has raised questions about the timing and covera ge of the El Nino weather phenomenon. 'Already a major drought is developing in Thailand which, if relief does not arrive this month, could have serious implications for the next crop,' the Czarnikow review says. 'If this is par t of a regional phenomenon there might be problems later in the year with th e monsoon in India and this will need to be monitored carefully.'

The Financial Times London Page 38 ============= Transaction # 71 ============================================== Transaction #: 71 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:37:47 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-9759 _AN-EEMC4AGHFT 9405 13 FT 13 MAY 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Crop setb acks put Indian sugar trade into reverse - Imports are now needed so that a presence can be maintained in the export market By K UNAL BOSE India's sugar crop hopes are continuing to fade. Having already been lowered to 10.5m tonnes from 11m, the production estimat e for the 1993-94 season (October-September) has recently been cut to not mo re than 9.8m tonnes. Last year, the country produced 10.6m tonnes of sugar, down from the 1991-92 record of 13.4m. A concerned federal government has al lowed duty-free imports of white sugar so that the domestic production short fall does not lead to a runaway inflation in sugar prices. According to indu stry officials, between the Indian Sugar & General Industry Exim Corporation and the trade, nearly 500,000 tonnes of sugar have already been contracted for import. And import contracts for another 300,000 tonnes are likely to be signed in the next few weeks. The imported sugar has started arriving at In dian ports and to facilitate its distribution the government has told the tr ade that it will be exempted from the 'stock-holding limit and turnover time applicable to sugar produced within the country'. Earlier the government al lowed the import of raw sugar for processing and re-export at a minimum valu e addition of 7.5 per cent. This was done in response to the suggestion by t he Indian Sugar Mills Association that India, which reappeared as a sugar ex porter in 1990-91 should maintain a presence in the world market in spite of the production setback. The ISGIEC, the industry's trading arm, has already imported 12,000 tonnes of raw sugar, and the seller has the option to suppl y the same quantity by June 1994. Meanwhile, ISMA has told the government th at in view of the worsening domestic supply situation the imported raw sugar should be allowed to be marketed within the country after processing withou t attracting any levy. And the government is expected to accept the proposal . Hit by a severe drought, Maharashtra, the biggest sugar producing state, w here crushing of cane is almost over, will end the season with production of 2.7m tonnes, compared with last year's 3.36m. The setback to production in Uttar Pradesh to 2.66m tonnes from 2.86m is blamed on large-scale diversion of cane to production of gur and khandsari, traditional sweeteners for the l ocal peasant market. According to ISMA, 'a good 500,000 tonnes of sugar has been lost in Uttar Pradesh because of the cane diversion'. The production lo ss in Bihar is because of damage caused to the standing crop by floods and e xcessive rains. There will also be production shortfall in the two north Ind ian states of Punjab and Haryana. Gujarat, however, is expected to step up p roduction to 970,000 tonnes from 751,000. Production will also be higher in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The expected production of 9.8m tonnes will no t meet domestic consumption, which the government is seeking to restrict to about 12m tonnes through the monthly sugar release mechanism. The total avai lability of sugar in the current season will be, however, around 13.8m tonne s, including the carry forward stocks of 3.2m tonnes and imports of 800,000 tonnes. Though the Indian sugar season begins in October, production gains m omentum only from the end of November, so the new season should ideally star t with stocks equal to the sugar requirement for at least two and a half mon ths. This is not going to happen in 1994-95. In the meantime, new cane plant ation has started. According to industry official plantings will be 20 to 25 per cent higher than last year's. But the first crop forecast and the likel y sugar production in the next season will not be available till June by whe n the monsoon has set in. Countries:- INZ India, Asi a. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. Types:- MKTS Production. CMMT Comment & Analysis. M KTS Foreign trade. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 72 ============================================== Transaction #: 72 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:38:09 Selec. Rec. #: 17 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-15800 _AN-CAHBJAC3FT 920 108 FT 08 JAN 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar es timate cut, but by less than expected By REUTER WORLD SUGAR output in the 1991-92 crop year is forecast to reac h 113.1m tonnes, raw value, according to FO Licht, the influential German st atistics agency, in its second production estimate, reports Reuter. This com pares with a previous forecast for 1991 - 92 of 114.06m tonnes made last Oct ober and a revised 1990-91 output estimate of 113.76m tonnes. All the figure s are based on national crop years. The announcement pushed world sugar futu res prices down in New York because the production forecast was higher than traders had expected. 'The estimate was down by almost 1m tonnes but we were looking for a downward revision of up to 2m tonnes,' one analyst said. 'The drop in the Cuban output numbers (that) we expected apparently didn't come through.' At the London Futures and Options Exchange, the May raw sugar posi tion was down Dollars 2 at Dollars 186 a tonne in late afternoon trading. The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 73 ============================================== Transaction #: 73 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:38:14 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-8462 _AN-CEMBDAC9FT 9205 13 FT 13 MAY 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar org anisation cuts estimate of surplus output By REUTER THE INTERNATIONAL Sugar Organistion's secretariat has cut i ts estimate of the world sugar surplus in 1991-92 (October/September) to 510 ,000 tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 1.4m tonnes, reports R euter. Production is seen totalling only 112.20m tonnes, compared with the p revious estimate of 112.84m tonnes while the consumption estimate has been l ifted to 111.69m tonnes from 111.44m tonnes. Estimates for Cuba, South Afric a and Zimbabwe were all reduced sharply to 6.85m, 2.20m and 90,000 tonnes re spectively, from 7.3m, 2.4m and 390,000 tonnes. The ISO said the Cuban estim ate reflected export indications and the country's declared intention to har vest 'every last tonne of sugar'. 'Although this is higher than other analys ts we feel it is too early to reduce it further when the crop is still in pr ogress,' the secretariat said. Cuban figures received by the ISO showed expo rts between November and January totalled 994,700 tonnes, up from 976,700 to nnes in the same period the previous year. Shipments to Japan rose to 159,90 0 tonnes from 64,600 while Portugal's rose from nothing to received 66,400 t onnes. Cuban exports to the CIS fell to 286,200 tonnes from 464,200 tonnes. The Financial Times London Page 32 ============= Transaction # 74 ============================================== Transaction #: 74 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:38:50 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-8462 _AN-CEMBDAC9FT 9205 13 FT 13 MAY 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar org anisation cuts estimate of surplus output By REUTER THE INTERNATIONAL Sugar Organistion's secretariat has cut i ts estimate of the world sugar surplus in 1991-92 (October/September) to 510 ,000 tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 1.4m tonnes, reports R euter. Production is seen totalling only 112.20m tonnes, compared with the p revious estimate of 112.84m tonnes while the consumption estimate has been l ifted to 111.69m tonnes from 111.44m tonnes. Estimates for Cuba, South Afric a and Zimbabwe were all reduced sharply to 6.85m, 2.20m and 90,000 tonnes re spectively, from 7.3m, 2.4m and 390,000 tonnes. The ISO said the Cuban estim ate reflected export indications and the country's declared intention to har vest 'every last tonne of sugar'. 'Although this is higher than other analys ts we feel it is too early to reduce it further when the crop is still in pr ogress,' the secretariat said. Cuban figures received by the ISO showed expo rts between November and January totalled 994,700 tonnes, up from 976,700 to nnes in the same period the previous year. Shipments to Japan rose to 159,90 0 tonnes from 64,600 while Portugal's rose from nothing to received 66,400 t onnes. Cuban exports to the CIS fell to 286,200 tonnes from 464,200 tonnes. The Financial Times London Page 32 ============= Transaction # 75 ============================================== Transaction #: 75 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:39:07 Selec. Rec. #: 22 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-16392 _AN-CACBJAD7FT 920 103 FT 03 JAN 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Soviet i mports 'key to commodity prospects' By DAVID BLACKWE LL IMPORTS BY the former Soviet Union in the coming year wi ll be the key factor in soft commodity prices, according to the Economist In telligence Unit. Some commodities are likely to benefit from the Soviet coll apse, including wheat, maize, barley and oilseed meals. Others, such as suga r, will suffer from depressed demand. The EIU points out that in 1989-90 Sov iet imports accounted for 25 per cent of world trade in maize and barley, 20 per cent of the sugar trade, 16 per cent of wheat trade and 15 per cent of soyabean meal trade. 'Its ability to feed itself to a greater or lesser degr ee is a matter of concern to exporters of those commodities, and to importer s competing for the same supplies.' The latest figure for the 1991 Soviet gr ain harvest - 156.3m tonnes - is also the most alarming, sharply down on ear lier estimates of between 180m and 190m tonnes. However, that figure could b e unduly pessimistic as the Soviet authorities have a vested interest in pai nting the picture as black as possible in order to strengthen their case for requesting food aid. In any case, predictions of famine have been exaggerat ed, the EIU believes. The 1990 Soviet harvest was good, and it is likely tha t a fair amount of Soviet grain, still on the farms, will find its way in to use. In addition, the realistic pricing of bread has reduced consumption, p rincipally because there is less waste now the cost is not derisory. The EIU estimates that the most the Soviet Union will be physically able to import in 1991-92 will be about 40m tonnes, 2m tonnes more than the 1989-90 figure. 'That amount would keep the international trade nicely topped up without bl owing prices through the roof.' The Soviet Union needs imports not to avoid famine, but to avoid paying decent prices for home produced goods, the EIU s uggests. 'The fact that state grain procurement late in October was only a q uarter of the projected harvest and only half what was needed to feed the po pulation through the winter months is an indication that Soviet farmers are in revolt, and are holding back supplies until farm-gate food prices are rai sed substantially in real terms.' The EIU believes that farmers' dissatisfac tion contributed to the poor 1991 harvest, and points out that the authoriti es do not have long to motivate them for the 1992 harvest. However, in the l ong run the Soviet Union will again be an agricultural exporter. Soviet suga r imports are not expected to exceed 4m tonnes in 1992, compared with 4.6m t onnes in 1991. The EIU cites the shortage of hard currency, the transition t o a market economy and the prospects of a better domestic crop. Of subsidiar y importance is the Soviets' ability to afford luxuries such as cocoa and co ffee. However, from the coffee and cocoa producers' viewpoint, the Soviet Un ion and eastern Europe are among the best potential markets. Consumption rat es for coffee in the Soviet Union are low, averaging only 0.24 kg a head in 1988, compared with saturation rates of more than 10 kg a head in some Europ ean countries, the EIU points out. Soviet cocoa grindings are estimated to h ave fallen to a 20-year low of 75,000 tonnes in 1990-91. International Cocoa Organisation figures show Soviet consumption at 0.71 kg a head, compared wi th Switzerland's 4.62 kg. However, in both commodities the EIU predicts that the shortage of hard currency will prevent any big improvement in Soviet co nsumption figures for at least another year. World Commodity Outlook 1992 - Food, Feedstuffs & Beverages. EIU, 40 Duke Street, London W1A 1DW. Price, in cl postage: Pounds 145 in Europe, Middle East and Africa; USDollars 275 in t he Americas and Asia/Pacific region. The Financial Times London Page 14 ============= Transaction # 76 ============================================== Transaction #: 76 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:39:36 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {sugar trade export import})" ============= Transaction # 77 ============================================== Transaction #: 77 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:39:47 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 75173 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 78 ============================================== Transaction #: 78 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:39:52 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-4601 _AN-EFIC8ABNFT 9406 09 FT 09 JUN 94 / World Trade News: Mexico-US sugar row looms - A potential trade dispute with its roots in Nafta By TED BARDACKE A planned switch by Mexico's Coca-Col a bottlers from domestically produced refined sugar to imported corn syrup i s threatening to set off a trade dispute between the US and Mexico, the worl d's largest per capita consumer of soft drinks. It all began with last-minut e changes to the sugar export provisions of the North American Free Trade Ag reement, which both the US and Mexico argued were necessary to win ratificat ion of the accord in the US Congress. The original rules gave Mexico an annu al sugar export quota of 250,000 tonnes, which the US promised to lift autom atically if Mexico proved to be a net sugar exporter for two consecutive yea rs. This rule was designed to prevent Mexico from importing cheap sugar to s atisfy national demand while exporting domestically produced sugar to the US market where tariffs keep prices high. Under the revised provisions, Mexico agreed that imports of corn syrup would be included, thus preventing soft d rink bottlers and other industrial users from switching to imported corn syr up to free up sugar for export. A third of Mexico's average 4m-tonne annual sugar production is consumed by industries that could switch to cheaper corn syrup. Now, as Coca-Cola bottlers study plans to switch - for a capital out lay of between Dollars 1m and Dollars 2m per bottling plant they can save se veral million dollars a year on raw materials and transportation costs - the y and the US Corn Refiners Association are accusing Mexican trade officials, sugar producers and Pepsi bottlers of erecting an embargo against corn syru p. The CRA has alleged that the Mexican sugar industry with the support of D r Jaime Serra Puche, Mexico's minister of trade, has put pressure on Mexican bottlers not to use high-fructose corn syrup. It also alleges that bottlers have been threatened with a boycott by sugar suppliers - which would mean t hey would have to convert 100 per cent to a sugar replacement - if they do n ot co-operate. The trade ministry is under political pressure to protect the domestic sugar industry. Militant sugar workers hurt by the industry's priv atisation have taken over various mills while others are permanently camped in front of the presidential palace in Mexico City. Coca-Cola bottlers say t hat sooner or later competition from low-cost imported soft drinks made with corn syrup will force them to move away from refined sugar. The boycott thr eat would be real only if domestic sugar producers can limit the amount of s ugar traded on Mexico's sugar futures market, which began operations in Marc h. So far only 38 per cent of monthly sugar purchases are taking place on th e market. The rest is sold directly by mills to industrial users and by midd lemen who still control about 30 per cent of the sugar trade. Coca-Cola bott lers say that with such little volume traded on the new market, they would b e forced to pay even higher prices for their principal raw material should m ills cancel their direct contracts. The current average price of refined sug ar traded on the futures market - Dollars 656 a tonne - is already about 7 p er cent higher than industrial users pay in their direct contracts with refi ners. Countries:- USZ United States of America. MXZ Mexico. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. P2062 Cane Sugar Refining. Types:- MKTS Foreign tr ade. The Financial Times London Page 7 ============= Transaction # 79 ============================================== Transaction #: 79 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:01 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8261 _AN-CBRBMAFXFT 9202 18 FT 18 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: World sug ar market 'at the crossroads' By DAVID BLACKWELL THE WORLD sugar market is at the crossroads, forcing many prod ucers to review their sugar policies in the light of changing international trade patterns, the Gatt, and other trade liberalisation issues, according t o the latest sugar report from ED & F. Man, the London trade house. Should t he Gatt talks be successful, cuts in support mechanisms by 1999 'should acce lerate the fall in the EC's net exports as marginal producers fail to cover their average production costs. The same argument applies to some of the hig h cost/less efficient producers in the US.' This will open up new opportunit ies for many producers in Africa and the Caribbean, but they will need to ex amine their long-term cost structure and efficiency. Man points out that und er preferential access to the US and EC markets, their production costs and efficiency deteriorated to the extent that some have failed even to meet the ir quota allocations. The increase in international trade will not, however, increase the transparency of the market. The uncertainty of Russsia's effec tive imports, Cuba's exports and the pattern of trade elsewhere in eastern E urope have 'turned the clock back some 40 years to a time when information a bout import demand and export availabiltiy was lacking'. Meanwhile sugar pri ces - which recently fell below 8 cents a lb - are expected to come under fu rther pressure as exportable surpluses come on to the market from Brazil, Cu ba, Thailand and the EC. The Financial Times Lond on Page 36 ============= Transaction # 80 ============================================== Transaction #: 80 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:18 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-9759 _AN-EEMC4AGHFT 9405 13 FT 13 MAY 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Crop setb acks put Indian sugar trade into reverse - Imports are now needed so that a presence can be maintained in the export market By K UNAL BOSE India's sugar crop hopes are continuing to fade. Having already been lowered to 10.5m tonnes from 11m, the production estimat e for the 1993-94 season (October-September) has recently been cut to not mo re than 9.8m tonnes. Last year, the country produced 10.6m tonnes of sugar, down from the 1991-92 record of 13.4m. A concerned federal government has al lowed duty-free imports of white sugar so that the domestic production short fall does not lead to a runaway inflation in sugar prices. According to indu stry officials, between the Indian Sugar & General Industry Exim Corporation and the trade, nearly 500,000 tonnes of sugar have already been contracted for import. And import contracts for another 300,000 tonnes are likely to be signed in the next few weeks. The imported sugar has started arriving at In dian ports and to facilitate its distribution the government has told the tr ade that it will be exempted from the 'stock-holding limit and turnover time applicable to sugar produced within the country'. Earlier the government al lowed the import of raw sugar for processing and re-export at a minimum valu e addition of 7.5 per cent. This was done in response to the suggestion by t he Indian Sugar Mills Association that India, which reappeared as a sugar ex porter in 1990-91 should maintain a presence in the world market in spite of the production setback. The ISGIEC, the industry's trading arm, has already imported 12,000 tonnes of raw sugar, and the seller has the option to suppl y the same quantity by June 1994. Meanwhile, ISMA has told the government th at in view of the worsening domestic supply situation the imported raw sugar should be allowed to be marketed within the country after processing withou t attracting any levy. And the government is expected to accept the proposal . Hit by a severe drought, Maharashtra, the biggest sugar producing state, w here crushing of cane is almost over, will end the season with production of 2.7m tonnes, compared with last year's 3.36m. The setback to production in Uttar Pradesh to 2.66m tonnes from 2.86m is blamed on large-scale diversion of cane to production of gur and khandsari, traditional sweeteners for the l ocal peasant market. According to ISMA, 'a good 500,000 tonnes of sugar has been lost in Uttar Pradesh because of the cane diversion'. The production lo ss in Bihar is because of damage caused to the standing crop by floods and e xcessive rains. There will also be production shortfall in the two north Ind ian states of Punjab and Haryana. Gujarat, however, is expected to step up p roduction to 970,000 tonnes from 751,000. Production will also be higher in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The expected production of 9.8m tonnes will no t meet domestic consumption, which the government is seeking to restrict to about 12m tonnes through the monthly sugar release mechanism. The total avai lability of sugar in the current season will be, however, around 13.8m tonne s, including the carry forward stocks of 3.2m tonnes and imports of 800,000 tonnes. Though the Indian sugar season begins in October, production gains m omentum only from the end of November, so the new season should ideally star t with stocks equal to the sugar requirement for at least two and a half mon ths. This is not going to happen in 1994-95. In the meantime, new cane plant ation has started. According to industry official plantings will be 20 to 25 per cent higher than last year's. But the first crop forecast and the likel y sugar production in the next season will not be available till June by whe n the monsoon has set in. Countries:- INZ India, Asi a. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. Types:- MKTS Production. CMMT Comment & Analysis. M KTS Foreign trade. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 81 ============================================== Transaction #: 81 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:40:34 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {sugar trade export import cuba})" ============= Transaction # 82 ============================================== Transaction #: 82 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:44 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 75336 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 83 ============================================== Transaction #: 83 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:49 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8261 _AN-CBRBMAFXFT 9202 18 FT 18 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: World sug ar market 'at the crossroads' By DAVID BLACKWELL THE WORLD sugar market is at the crossroads, forcing many prod ucers to review their sugar policies in the light of changing international trade patterns, the Gatt, and other trade liberalisation issues, according t o the latest sugar report from ED & F. Man, the London trade house. Should t he Gatt talks be successful, cuts in support mechanisms by 1999 'should acce lerate the fall in the EC's net exports as marginal producers fail to cover their average production costs. The same argument applies to some of the hig h cost/less efficient producers in the US.' This will open up new opportunit ies for many producers in Africa and the Caribbean, but they will need to ex amine their long-term cost structure and efficiency. Man points out that und er preferential access to the US and EC markets, their production costs and efficiency deteriorated to the extent that some have failed even to meet the ir quota allocations. The increase in international trade will not, however, increase the transparency of the market. The uncertainty of Russsia's effec tive imports, Cuba's exports and the pattern of trade elsewhere in eastern E urope have 'turned the clock back some 40 years to a time when information a bout import demand and export availabiltiy was lacking'. Meanwhile sugar pri ces - which recently fell below 8 cents a lb - are expected to come under fu rther pressure as exportable surpluses come on to the market from Brazil, Cu ba, Thailand and the EC. The Financial Times Lond on Page 36 ============= Transaction # 84 ============================================== Transaction #: 84 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:41:07 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-3729 _AN-CIJB4AFOFT 9209 10 FT 10 SEP 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Pakistan can halt sugar imports By FARHAN BOKHARI < DATELINE> ISLAMABAD SURPLUS SUGAR stocks in Pakistan a re set to eliminate the country's need to import sugar, although the potenti al for export remains unclear. Pakistan's total production is expected to hi t 2.6m tonnes by the end of the 1992-93 fiscal year, up from 2.3m tonnes in 1991-92. Government officials estimate that private traders are holding 132, 000 tonnes of stocks, and that is expected to start rising next month as the new production season begins at sugar mills. The rise in sugar production h as partly resulted from an increase in the number of sugar mills as well as improvements in the recovery rate of sugar cane and beet. Pakistan started w ith 2 sugar mills with a daily sugar cane crushing capacity of 1,500 tonnes at the time of its independence in 1947; today there are 54, with an aggrega te capacity of 175,000 tonnes. The rise in production has allowed cuts in su gar imports. In June this year, imports of white refined sugar fell to just 538 tonnes, down from 3,480 tonnes in May. Last year, 36,819 tonnes was impo rted in June, following 48,290 tonnes in May. However, the country's sugar e xport potential remains unclear. With countries such as Brazil and Cuba havi ng lower costs of production, Pakistani sugar might not be able to compete, said one senior official. Up to 100,000 tonnes of sugar is estimated to be s muggled annually to neighbouring Iran and Afghanistan. That has made it diff icult to assess if a surplus will be left after meeting domestic consumption , including smuggling, in order to set aside large quantities for export. Ho wever, Pakistan will at least save valuable foreign exchange by meeting its sugar requirements domestically. Last year Dollars 36.8m was spent on import ing sugar, which was down from Dollars 160.5m, a year earlier. The Financial Times London Page 32 ============= Transaction # 85 ============================================== Transaction #: 85 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:41:33 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-2957 _AN-CCQBDAC4FT 9203 17 FT 17 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar pri ces forecast to remain in narrow range By DAVID BLAC KWELL WORLD SUGAR prices are set to remain locked in the 'd esperately narrow' 1.5 cents a lb trading range of the last 12 months, accor ding to the latest sugar report from ED & F. Man, the London trade house. Th e resistance to movement in spite of a volatile trading environment is due t o fear of uncertainty at a time of revolutionary change in the eastern Europ ean and Cuban markets, Man suggests. It also coincides with 'an unprecedente d convergence of views about the overall supply and demand balance'. While u ncertainty surrounds crop prospects in both Cuba, the biggest exporter, and the CIS, the biggest importer, the convergence can be explained by favourabl e growing conditions in many exporting countries. Output in Brazil, Thailand and India in the year to the end of last month has exceeded the previous ye ar by 24, 30 and 8 per cent respectively. 'The full impact of these potentia lly bumper crops has not as yet been felt on the market,' says Man. The Financial Times London Page 32 ============= Transaction # 86 ============================================== Transaction #: 86 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:41:43 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 87 ============================================== Transaction #: 87 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:42:24 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 75336 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 88 ============================================== Transaction #: 88 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:44:05 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 89 ============================================== Transaction #: 89 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:44:10 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 90 ============================================== Transaction #: 90 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:44:16 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 91 ============================================== Transaction #: 91 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:44:43 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {birth rate decline})" ============= Transaction # 92 ============================================== Transaction #: 92 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:44:52 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 93 ============================================== Transaction #: 93 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:09 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11076 _AN-EHBDUAAYFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks By ROBERT GRAHAM ROME Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends con tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths outnumbering the newly born for the first time this century outside the first world war. According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the number of births fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of Italy. In contra st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992, the birth rate f ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend continues, one recent re search paper suggests Italy's population could fall from 57m to 12m by the y ear 2100. However, the south continues to be prolific and its baby 'surplus' almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the centre and north. Increased wea lth is the main explanation for the decline. But unlike northern European co untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant population with a high birth ra te. Countries:- ITZ Italy, EC. Industries :- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London P age 3 ============= Transaction # 94 ============================================== Transaction #: 94 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:12 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 95 ============================================== Transaction #: 95 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:41 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 96 ============================================== Transaction #: 96 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:48:02 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 97 ============================================== Transaction #: 97 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:49:24 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 98 ============================================== Transaction #: 98 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:50:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 99 ============================================== Transaction #: 99 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:26 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 100 ============================================== Transaction #: 100 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:35 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 101 ============================================== Transaction #: 101 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:38 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11076 _AN-EHBDUAAYFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks By ROBERT GRAHAM ROME Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends con tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths outnumbering the newly born for the first time this century outside the first world war. According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the number of births fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of Italy. In contra st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992, the birth rate f ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend continues, one recent re search paper suggests Italy's population could fall from 57m to 12m by the y ear 2100. However, the south continues to be prolific and its baby 'surplus' almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the centre and north. Increased wea lth is the main explanation for the decline. But unlike northern European co untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant population with a high birth ra te. Countries:- ITZ Italy, EC. Industries :- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London P age 3 ============= Transaction # 102 ============================================== Transaction #: 102 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:38 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 103 ============================================== Transaction #: 103 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:38 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 104 ============================================== Transaction #: 104 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:38 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 105 ============================================== Transaction #: 105 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:38 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 106 ============================================== Transaction #: 106 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:42 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 107 ============================================== Transaction #: 107 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:53 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 108 ============================================== Transaction #: 108 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:52:10 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {birth rate decline population})" ============= Transaction # 109 ============================================== Transaction #: 109 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:52:19 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 58330 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 110 ============================================== Transaction #: 110 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:53:40 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {birth rate decline population}) not (title {un})" ============= Transaction # 111 ============================================== Transaction #: 111 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:50 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 58184 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 112 ============================================== Transaction #: 112 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:54:56 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 113 ============================================== Transaction #: 113 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:55:33 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {birth rate decline population}) not (title {birth}) not (ti tle {un})" ============= Transaction # 114 ============================================== Transaction #: 114 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:55:43 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 58277 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 115 ============================================== Transaction #: 115 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:56:50 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-2291 _AN-BEABLAA0FT 9105 01 FT 01 MAY 91 / Migrants halt decline in Scottish popu lation By JAMES BUXTON, Scottish Correspondent THE long-running gentle decline in the Scottish population was r eversed last year for the first time since the mid-1970s as Scotland, normal ly a reliable source of emigrants, received an influx of migrants. In the ye ar to June 30 1990 the estimated population rose by 11,700 to 5,102,400, acc ording to Scotland's registrar general. A net 13,500 people migrated into Sc otland, most of them from the rest of Britain, but also from abroad. This of fset a natural fall in the population of 1,400 caused by a high number of de aths from influenza in the winter of 1989-90 and a relatively low number of births. The gradual decline in the Scottish population and, until recently, high levels of emigration have long been a matter of concern to the governme nt, as well as a source of political point scoring by opposition parties, no tably the Scottish National party. The Financial Times < PAGE> London Page 8 ============= Transaction # 116 ============================================== Transaction #: 116 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:58:02 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 58277 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 117 ============================================== Transaction #: 117 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:59:21 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 58277 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 118 ============================================== Transaction #: 118 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:01:02 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 119 ============================================== Transaction #: 119 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:01:25 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 1 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robotic})" ============= Transaction # 120 ============================================== Transaction #: 120 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:01:27 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 284 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 121 ============================================== Transaction #: 121 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:03:04 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 122 ============================================== Transaction #: 122 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:04:09 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robotic technology})" ============= Transaction # 123 ============================================== Transaction #: 123 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:04:12 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 12427 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 124 ============================================== Transaction #: 124 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:05:28 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-2950 _AN-DIPCOAC9FT 9309 16 FT 16 SEP 93 / Technology: A robot that makes the cof fee By VICTORIA GRIFFITH Science fi ction often features machines which respond obediently to orders barked out by humans. In the imaginary world, robots fetch slippers, cook dinner and pe rform the role of high-technology 'slaves'. A robot which can perform comple x tasks still exists only in the realm of dreams, but scientists say we may not be far from the day when we can wake up, shout out 'Temperature 72`F] Co ffee-maker on] Toaster on]' and get up 15 minutes later to a warm house, fre sh coffee and breakfast. What might make this dream reality is the developme nt of 'voice-recognition' technology, which enables machines to understand s poken commands. Bringing voice-activated devices to the mass market is the m ission of Voice Powered Technology. The group already produces a VCR program mer which operates by voice command, and will launch another speech-activate d device, a 'date-reminder', in the autumn. Just how many people will prefer to use their voice instead of their fingers in operating home appliances is not yet certain, but the new VCR programmer has caught the attention of Phi lips Consumer Electronics. The US subsidiary of the Dutch electronics giant has contracted with Voice Powered Technology to use the voice-activated prog ramming device in two of its Magnavox VCR models, and as a stand-alone remot e control accessory. 'An overwhelming number of consumers still have trouble programming their VCRs,' says Jim Newbrough, vice-president of marketing at Philips, 'and the use of voice enables us to differentiate our products.' T he VCR programmer prompts the user by flashing questions on the television s creen. In response to the question 'Which?', for instance, the user would sa y a number. The user can also make the programmer skip over commercials in a recording by saying 'Zap it]' The 'date-reminder' device, which will come o ut this autumn, works in the following manner: the user says a phrase such a s 'Don't forget to call John Doe, Monday at 9.00 am'. The date-reminder reco gnises the words Monday and 9.00 am, and records the rest of the message. On Monday at nine, the machine will beep and spit out the recording. The techn ology used in these devices is relatively simple. The video programmer, for instance, has a vocabulary of just 31 words. Both are operated by an eight-b it microprocessor, instead of the heavy digital signal processor that most v oice-recognition technology relies on. 'This enabled us to offer the product as a battery-operated device,' says Jerry Gutterman, of Voice Powered Techn ology. The group hopes the simplicity of its technology will allow it to be applied to a number of domestic appliances. 'We are taking voice-recognition to the masses,' says Gutterman, 'and this technology can be applied to a nu mber of products, including CD players, coffee machines and microwaves.' The day a machine can be commanded to cook a meal may not be so far off, after all. Countries:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Ana lysis. The Financial Times London Page 24 < /DOC> ============= Transaction # 125 ============================================== Transaction #: 125 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:09:38 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 126 ============================================== Transaction #: 126 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:11:41 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 12427 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 127 ============================================== Transaction #: 127 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:12:41 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8893 _AN-CBNB3AE8FT 9202 14 FT 14 FEB 92 / Technology: Machine replaces milkmaid By STEVEN SONSINO For the last thre e years Professor Jim Hewit's team in the Department of Mechanical Engineeri ng at the Loughborough University of Technology has been looking at cows' ud ders with more than a passing interest. Talking to colleagues at the Agricul tural and Food Research Council they discovered that if cows could be milked as often as the cows themselves wanted, milk production would increase. The stress on the cows of being rounded up for milking would also be reduced, w hich could improve milk quality. And farmers would need less equipment, as m ilking would be spread throughout the day, not compressed into the tradition al early and late shifts. The Loughborough team has developed a robotic mach ine to milk the cows automatically. The system incorporates a thermal imagin g system attached to a contraption of booms and telescopic tubing. The solut ion appeared by accident. Hewit discovered a thermal imaging system in the l ab from a previous project. Wondering whether this might distinguish cold te ats from hot udders, the team tested it on cows on an Oxfordshire farm. Not only did it pick out the teats on the cow when the animal entered the milkin g stall, without the need for human guidance, it also picked out a teat dise ased with mastitis, which appeared black to the imaging system. The cow's ow ner was shocked, but grateful, and so were the Loughborough engineers: in a surprise spin-off the robot had become a dual milking and diagnostic imaging system. Work will begin in May on the remaining hurdle: making the imaging systems rugged enough and cheap enough for life on the farm. At present an e ffective imaging system costs around Pounds 30,000, says Hewit, and he is wo rried that a roaring trade in robot rustling might develop. Eventually he be lieves unattended milking stalls will appear on the farm. Cows will wander i n as they please or be called in by the tape-recorded lowings of suckling ca lves. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 128 ============================================== Transaction #: 128 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:13:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robotic technology}) not (title {technology})" ============= Transaction # 129 ============================================== Transaction #: 129 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:13:03 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 10082 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 130 ============================================== Transaction #: 130 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:13:11 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robotic technology}) and (title {technology})" ============= Transaction # 131 ============================================== Transaction #: 131 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:13:15 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 2345 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 132 ============================================== Transaction #: 132 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:13:53 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(title {technology}) and (title {robot})" ============= Transaction # 133 ============================================== Transaction #: 133 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:13:55 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 14 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 134 ============================================== Transaction #: 134 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:14:51 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-3682 _AN-CCMBUABBFT 9203 13 FT 13 MAR 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Robotic e yes see the light 'ROBOTIC eyes' can now be made from a p hotosensitive protein called bacteriorhodopsin (BR) found in salt-saturated water such as the Dead Sea. A team from Fuji Photo Film in Japan has develop ed a retina-like light sensor which rivals the most sophisticated silicon de vices. It mimics some of the functions of the eye in a simpler, less costly and more compact package. The sensor is constructed by wedging a thin film o f the protein between two oxide electrodes in an electrically conductive gel . When light hits the sensor the BR molecules react by changing shape, gener ating a quick electric pulse that travels through the electrode. But if the light remains constant the protein returns to its original shape. No charge is generated until the light level changes again. Potential applications inc lude recognition systems for security purposes and factory automation. Fuji Photo Film: Japan, 04 6573 7070. The Financial Times London Page 12 ============= Transaction # 135 ============================================== Transaction #: 135 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:15:23 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-7109 _AN-CBYA2AA4FT 9202 25 FT 25 FEB 92 / Technology: Robots pick up the call - Peggy Hollinger speaks to a computerised telephone operator By PEGGY HOLLINGER Most telephone operators who wor k for Colorgraphic, the Leicester-based direct marketing services group, are devoid of personality, never get sick or take days off. Nick Winks, chief e xecutive, wants to keep it that way. Winks is speaking of his robot operator s, which are 60 times more productive than humans. The speech interactive sy stem recently introduced at the company's Decisions Voice Response subsidiar y, based in Bristol, can handle up to 120,000 calls a day compared with 2,00 0 taken by a staff of 16 humans. Speech interactive is the simple term for a system which recognises letters, numbers and words as spoken by a caller. T he computer then matches combinations of words, letters and/or numbers to a database which provides information to be translated back into a voice respo nse. The commercial use of speech interactive systems is gaining ground in t he UK as consumers lose their inhibitions about talking to computers and as the direct marketing industry matures. Until recently, most computer voice s ystems had been the preserve of business-to-business transactions, says Jeff Williams of Datapoint, which designs telemarketing software. However, the s uccess of the 24-hour telephone bank, First Direct - although not a speech i nteractive system - has shown that the consumer-to-computer market is waitin g to be tapped. The biggest challenge to telemarketing in recent years has b een volume. With 90 per cent of the response to a television advertisement, for example, coming in within 15 minutes of the broadcast, it is almost impo ssible to staff a switchboard at a viable cost. So the answer has been to ad vertise at unsocial hours - when most of your potential audience will be asl eep. Yet computer-operated marketing can solve that problem. Everything from financial dealing to booking holidays could be organised by computer, say t elemarketing enthusiasts. In Colorgraphic's case, the computer is used to de vise packages for clients, including a car insurance quotation system and ch arity fundraising. Winks says his software is at least 12 months ahead of an ything used in the UK. He claims it is even more advanced than anything used in the US, as most systems there are based on the touchtone phone rather th an the speech interactive method. What makes the Colorgraphic system unique is its ability to recognise almost any accent, ask questions, interpret the answers, provide a customer profile within seconds, and even make an appoint ment to call back if the lines are too busy. Colorgraphic, which handles the calls for client telephone campaigns, can also gain access to several outsi de databases at the same time. 'That's where Colorgraphic has really scored, ' says Williams. 'It has written a sophisticated software package.' For exam ple, one of Colorgraphic's clients is a leading UK insurer. Within minutes c allers can receive a quote for car insurance by ringing the Colorgraphic com puters which dip into the insurer's own database for the criteria to compile the quote. The program is due to be launched in the spring. The cost for su ch an exercise can be a low as Pounds 2.15, compared with Pounds 6 using a l ive operator. Other services include house insurance quotes, motor advertisi ng campaigns where a caller can be referred to the nearest dealer, and stock ordering for retailers where the computer checks credit worthiness, alerts the warehouse and issues a delivery note. If the system is unsure of what it has heard, it is able to flag the call for a human 'verifier' who replays t he tape and types in the correct words. At any stage the system can divert t o a live operator if it, or the caller, chooses. Developing the system cost Pounds 1m. To leap the accent hurdle, charities around the country were offe red Pounds 1 per phone call to gather a sample of 500 different accents for each letter of the alphabet and the numbers zero to nine. Now Colorgraphic h opes to draw in advertisers and is working on custom-made software to meet t heir needs. For advertisers, the benefits of any such system are in the imme diate response: 'We are looking to turn the operation round, from the TV cam paign to the letter in the post, in a two-hour window,' says Colin Bond, Col orgraphic's business development director. The Financial Times London Page 12 ============= Transaction # 136 ============================================== Transaction #: 136 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:17:45 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 14 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 2 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 137 ============================================== Transaction #: 137 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:19:17 Selec. Rec. #: 14 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11018 _AN-EHBDUACKFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work - Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population By ANDREW FISHER A nifty little robot d arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it into a truck. Inside a power station, another robot carries out vital maintenance work. A hard-pres sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and patients. Hard to imagine thoug h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on such applications - an d on robots for the home - although it will probably not be until well into the next century that they can be put into practice. Labour will be in short supply in coming years. The 125m population is ageing and will slowly decli ne as the birth rate falls. 'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio ns in Japan,' says Kazuo Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory at Fujitsu, the Japanese computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy stems to replace young people.' Most people do not want to do the so-called '3K' jobs - denoting the Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous' - such as working in hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati ons and cleaning. Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for handling mail and other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home. T he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer syste ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The robots wi ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to adapt to th eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous systems using neural networks,' says Asakawa. In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president of the University of Tokyo, robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e conomic and social problems. 'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated labour force to invent these kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in dustry must look ahead to new products such as these to prepare for a future in which over-production and over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth. Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high co sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common w ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of 'ho llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up productio n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The electronics companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car makers have been expanding their overseas operations. 'We must change the direction of e ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in engineering design theory. He thi nks industry should lean towards more automation of services such as healthc are and cleaning. He talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service s', with intelligent, computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward and dirty work now done by humans. In other countries, where unemployment i s high, this is less of an issue. But Japan's unemployment rate is less than 3 per cent, kept low by the tradition of lifetime employment and the high l evel of consensus and discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re cession after the bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s. Japane se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the world. In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than 280,000 were advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or learning controls ), according to latest statistics from the United Nations and the Internatio nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000 (42,000 advanced) in t he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany. The electronics industry is the bigges t user of robots in Japan, followed by cars. But the advanced applications e nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and others are still at the pilot stage. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry supports some of them. Work is progessing on robots to take the backache out of nurses' lifting work and on micromachines to help doctors operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic ine to certain parts of the body. The rubbish-collecting robots described by Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social robots' - are still at the basic research stage. 'I can't say when they will be ready. The direction of research is t o invent new robotics for use on the roads and streets of a city. I hope thi s will be completed in five to 10 years.' A programme to develop robots to e nter the containment vessels of nuclear power plants and carry out maintenan ce work began in 1978, he says. The first prototype was too heavy at 400kg. Toshiba then made a more sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work. But power companies are reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for work in which safety and reliability is essential. 'My idea is first mainten ance, then social and then home robots,' says Yoshikawa. All these areas, he feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through intelligent automation. Ultimat ely, the home could be the biggest market for robots. But to do household cl eaning and other work, they must be made of softer materials than metal and have more flexible gear systems to fit in with the random pattern of life in the home. Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But he adds that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s hown considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer programs for domestic use. Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur rying around Japanese streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo bs and taking some of the strain out of daily life. Countries:- JPZ Japan, Asia. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. Types:- CMMT Comment & Ana lysis. TECH Products & Product use. MGMT Management & Marketing. < /TP> The Financial Times London Page 11