Log date 08_27_99_12:31:37 ============= Transaction # 1 ============================================== Transaction #: 1 Transaction Code: 0 (New Host Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:37:02 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 2 ============================================== Transaction #: 2 Transaction Code: 35 (New Host Connected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:37:04 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 3 ============================================== Transaction #: 3 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:38:11 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma})" ============= Transaction # 4 ============================================== Transaction #: 4 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:38:15 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 5 ============================================== Transaction #: 5 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:38:59 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 6 ============================================== Transaction #: 6 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Review Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:22 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 7 ============================================== Transaction #: 7 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:29 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 8 ============================================== Transaction #: 8 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:39 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 9 ============================================== Transaction #: 9 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:40:46 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 10 ============================================== Transaction #: 10 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:41:56 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 11 ============================================== Transaction #: 11 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:42:02 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 12 ============================================== Transaction #: 12 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:42:16 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 13 ============================================== Transaction #: 13 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:44:26 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 14 ============================================== Transaction #: 14 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:44:56 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {birth rate decline})" ============= Transaction # 15 ============================================== Transaction #: 15 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:45:04 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 16 ============================================== Transaction #: 16 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:45:22 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11076 _AN-EHBDUAAYFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks By ROBERT GRAHAM ROME Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends con tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths outnumbering the newly born for the first time this century outside the first world war. According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the number of births fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of Italy. In contra st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992, the birth rate f ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend continues, one recent re search paper suggests Italy's population could fall from 57m to 12m by the y ear 2100. However, the south continues to be prolific and its baby 'surplus' almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the centre and north. Increased wea lth is the main explanation for the decline. But unlike northern European co untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant population with a high birth ra te. Countries:- ITZ Italy, EC. Industries :- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London P age 3 ============= Transaction # 17 ============================================== Transaction #: 17 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:45:26 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11076 _AN-EHBDUAAYFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks By ROBERT GRAHAM ROME Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends con tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths outnumbering the newly born for the first time this century outside the first world war. According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the number of births fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of Italy. In contra st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992, the birth rate f ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend continues, one recent re search paper suggests Italy's population could fall from 57m to 12m by the y ear 2100. However, the south continues to be prolific and its baby 'surplus' almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the centre and north. Increased wea lth is the main explanation for the decline. But unlike northern European co untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant population with a high birth ra te. Countries:- ITZ Italy, EC. Industries :- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London P age 3 ============= Transaction # 18 ============================================== Transaction #: 18 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:45:28 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-11076 _AN-EHBDUAAYFT 940 802 FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks By ROBERT GRAHAM ROME Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends con tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths outnumbering the newly born for the first time this century outside the first world war. According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the number of births fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of Italy. In contra st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992, the birth rate f ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend continues, one recent re search paper suggests Italy's population could fall from 57m to 12m by the y ear 2100. However, the south continues to be prolific and its baby 'surplus' almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the centre and north. Increased wea lth is the main explanation for the decline. But unlike northern European co untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant population with a high birth ra te. Countries:- ITZ Italy, EC. Industries :- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London P age 3 ============= Transaction # 19 ============================================== Transaction #: 19 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:45:50 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 20 ============================================== Transaction #: 20 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:07 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 21 ============================================== Transaction #: 21 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:20 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 22 ============================================== Transaction #: 22 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:41 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 23 ============================================== Transaction #: 23 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:43 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 24 ============================================== Transaction #: 24 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:46:43 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 25 ============================================== Transaction #: 25 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:47:04 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5793 _AN-EICAFABGFT 9409 02 FT 02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni ng By PAUL ADAMS LAGOS In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow th, Nigeria at 90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa. Until 1988 , when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a national population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled tag as t he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they regarded high population growth as healthy and saw little point in controlling the r ate of growth. Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti ng it among the 10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused a surprise: Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat ed numbers by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol itical clout and revenue allocation. The United Nations Population Fund has projected the average population growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe r cent (which would double the population in about 30 years) with the birth rate at 45 per 1,000 persons and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in fant mortality rate of 96). The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child ren per woman, while the national policy set a target of only four. Since th e 1970s the urban population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t he rate of growth in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent. Generalising about Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very diverse cultures, is often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to education and the rol e of women. In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are far higher than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio n of birth control is not widely accepted. In the south-east there is a high percentage of Catholics especially among the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin e in social services during the 1990s has halted the progress towards family planning clinics and universal primary education, especially in the north, bolstering the influence of the Koranic schools. Even nationally, the UN pai nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in Nigeria has improved little ove r the last decade. In general, they are considered second-class citizens not by law but because of the social and cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19 93 review of the national programme. The literacy rate for women was 31 per cent (54 per cent for men) and more than half of all Nigerian women were mar ried at the age of 15. The problem of education lies not just with women. As a prominent women's group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f our children per woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that figure. If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out look for economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t he 1970s, the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the level of 1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i ncome to a level three times that of Nigeria. In January's budget speech the finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented on three years of political unc ertainty, capital flight government over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt her decline in GDP growth rate from 4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in 1993. A comparison with the average growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d emonstrates the enormity of the task involved in resuscitating the economy i n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr Kalu. Since then strikes, shortages and a d earth of foreign exchange have taken the economy further down hill. Nigeria accounts for about half of West Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on ce poured into Nigeria for a better life, the chances of reverse migration l ook more likely. Countries:- NGZ Nigeria, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra ms. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financia l Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 26 ============================================== Transaction #: 26 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:47:20 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 27 ============================================== Transaction #: 27 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:47:22 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 28 ============================================== Transaction #: 28 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:47:24 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 29 ============================================== Transaction #: 29 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:48:06 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-13724 _AN-DAVB3AA6FT 930 122 FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply By EDWARD MORTIMER THE population exp losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading French demographer, P rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer. Birth rates in the region are falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood of Arab immigrants are wildly exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in Brussels yesterday. In fact, he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia will le vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will begin to decre ase. 'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign wor kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where labour will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export demands.' Mr C ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes Demographique s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the Mediterranean at th e Centre for European Policy Studies. The decrease in fertility in the Maghr eb countries is acknowledged by the UN and the World Bank, he said, but thos e organisations had not yet taken the full measure of the decline. The UN ha d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries. Countries:- XMZ Africa. Industries:- P99 N onclassifiable Establishments. Types:- PEOP Personnel News. The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 30 ============================================== Transaction #: 30 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:48:13 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-10784 _AN-EEIC5AC6FT 940 509 FT 09 MAY 94 / Observer: Green surprise Europe's 'green' parties come in all sorts of political shades, but n one comes near to matching the performance of the Hungarian 'greens'. Instea d of campaigning for population control, the Hungarian greens' TV broadcasts call on Hungarian men to do the 'daily triple' with their wives. The party does not spell out in detail what it is Hungarian men should do three times a day. But party officials believe it would 'increase the birth rate and lea d to a decline in homosexuality, prostitution and the divorce rate'. However , this brave rallying cry has yet to capture the imagination of the Hungaria n electorate. Early returns suggest that the party has as much chance of cap turing a seat as Britain's Screaming Lord Sutch. Countries:- HUZ Hungary, East Europe. Industries:- P8651 P olitical Organizations. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 31 ============================================== Transaction #: 31 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:48:26 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 32 ============================================== Transaction #: 32 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:48:33 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 33 ============================================== Transaction #: 33 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:49:31 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 34 ============================================== Transaction #: 34 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:49:40 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 35 ============================================== Transaction #: 35 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:50:07 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 36 ============================================== Transaction #: 36 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:50:08 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-14657 _AN-CAOBBABPFT 920 115 FT 15 JAN 92 / The Lex Column: UK economy The trouble with declining inflation is that it is a mixed blessing when nominal interest rates are stuck at a high level. Yesterday's UK produ cer price figures showed both a healthy decline - to a year-on-year rate of 3.8 per cent - in underlying output price inflation and a welcome 12-month d rop in input prices. Admittedly the data only cover the manufacturing sector : services inflation is more stubborn, thanks to the likes of British Rail w ith its annual fare increases. But producer price trends still point in theo ry to a gentle economic stimulus from declining manufacturing costs and to s cope for an eventual sharp fall in interest rates as decelerating wholesale inflation feeds through to the retail level. All the more so, since the annu al rate of producer price increases should fall even more sharply next month as last January's exceptionally large 1.2 per cent rise falls out of the eq uation. Unfortunately membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism means UK int erest rates are affected less by domestic inflation than by their differenti al with those of Germany. Recent French experience suggests that is unlikely to change even if headline UK inflation falls below that of Germany in Febr uary or March. With a showdown over wages looming in the German steel indust ry, the Bundesbank is unlikely to start cutting rates soon. Until it does, d eclining inflation in the UK will simply mean higher real interest rates. Th at in turn is likely to negate any economic benefit from weak commodity pric es. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 37 ============================================== Transaction #: 37 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:50:32 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9415 _AN-EBODHADOFT 9402 15 FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire land's economy By GARRET FITZGERALD European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best E U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also h as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for som e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest expo rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union. This state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of its av erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country - Portug al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in the wor ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food consum ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of female part icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in Britain and the EU respectively. The state in question is Ireland. Of course, this is n ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the Irish state which are equally notable and less positive: its average level of living standards, m easured in terms of its disposable income per head of population, is 22 per cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its unemployment rate is higher th an in any other EU country except Spain. Both of these features are, however , largely time-lagged consequences of a very high birth rate, which as recen tly as the late 1970s was as much as four-fifths higher than in many other E uropean countries. However, this exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t he past. For, despite the increase of more than half in the number of young people in its population during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t he fertility rate has reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi s was brought about by the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi ces, in disregard of the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q uite possible that within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind of very low level that prevails in countries in southern Europe. Why has the Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing ultimately a countr y's living standards as internationally measured? For the simple reason that a country whose birth rate has been very high in the recent past is bound t o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers: not only children and s tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is because there is a limit to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb very large flows of young people emerging annually from the education system. This is why the Irish s tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100 workers as against about 130 dependen ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157 per 100 in the EU as a whole. Vis a vis the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of output p er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross domestic produc t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the UK, the level of disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at purchasing power pariti es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than that of Scandinavia. T he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high b irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years a go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the sam e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will con tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish labour force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3 per cent in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a fifth of 1 per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer than 52,000 i n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this problem will ha ve largely solved itself within about 15 years. Meanwhile, the short-term gr owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably better even than forecast b y the European Commission. There are now marked signs of a recovery in consu mer demand, which will generate increased employment later this year. This i s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a moderately stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax reliefs. The au thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- CHANGES 1988-1993 % - ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Ireland UK ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------- GDP +26 +2 GDP per worker +23 +6.5 Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5 Employ ment +5 -18 Real wages +16 +9 Consumer prices +13 +30.5 Investment +11.5 -7.5 Person al consumption +16 +3.5 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Percentage of GDP 1993 --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Public borrowing 2.5 7.2 Current external balance +6.5 -2.3 ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- Countries:- IEZ Irelan d, EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta ry Policy. Types:- STATS Statistics. ECON Gross d omestic product. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 38 ============================================== Transaction #: 38 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:07 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9415 _AN-EBODHADOFT 9402 15 FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire land's economy By GARRET FITZGERALD European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best E U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also h as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for som e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest expo rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union. This state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of its av erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country - Portug al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in the wor ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food consum ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of female part icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in Britain and the EU respectively. The state in question is Ireland. Of course, this is n ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the Irish state which are equally notable and less positive: its average level of living standards, m easured in terms of its disposable income per head of population, is 22 per cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its unemployment rate is higher th an in any other EU country except Spain. Both of these features are, however , largely time-lagged consequences of a very high birth rate, which as recen tly as the late 1970s was as much as four-fifths higher than in many other E uropean countries. However, this exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t he past. For, despite the increase of more than half in the number of young people in its population during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t he fertility rate has reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi s was brought about by the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi ces, in disregard of the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q uite possible that within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind of very low level that prevails in countries in southern Europe. Why has the Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing ultimately a countr y's living standards as internationally measured? For the simple reason that a country whose birth rate has been very high in the recent past is bound t o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers: not only children and s tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is because there is a limit to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb very large flows of young people emerging annually from the education system. This is why the Irish s tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100 workers as against about 130 dependen ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157 per 100 in the EU as a whole. Vis a vis the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of output p er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross domestic produc t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the UK, the level of disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at purchasing power pariti es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than that of Scandinavia. T he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high b irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years a go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the sam e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will con tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish labour force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3 per cent in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a fifth of 1 per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer than 52,000 i n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this problem will ha ve largely solved itself within about 15 years. Meanwhile, the short-term gr owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably better even than forecast b y the European Commission. There are now marked signs of a recovery in consu mer demand, which will generate increased employment later this year. This i s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a moderately stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax reliefs. The au thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- CHANGES 1988-1993 % - ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Ireland UK ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------- GDP +26 +2 GDP per worker +23 +6.5 Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5 Employ ment +5 -18 Real wages +16 +9 Consumer prices +13 +30.5 Investment +11.5 -7.5 Person al consumption +16 +3.5 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Percentage of GDP 1993 --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Public borrowing 2.5 7.2 Current external balance +6.5 -2.3 ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- Countries:- IEZ Irelan d, EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta ry Policy. Types:- STATS Statistics. ECON Gross d omestic product. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 39 ============================================== Transaction #: 39 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:51:15 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 40 ============================================== Transaction #: 40 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:08 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 41 ============================================== Transaction #: 41 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:15 Selec. Rec. #: 17 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-388 _AN-CI2B1AAKFT 92092 9 FT 29 SEP 92 / The ERM and Maastricht: Swedish bank cu ts overnight lending rate By ROBERT TAYLOR STOCKHOLM SWEDEN'S central bank cut its ma rginal overnight lending rate to commercial banks from 50 per cent to 40 per cent yesterday in a cautious adjustment towards a 'more normal interest rat e level'. It said the reduction had been made possible by declining turbulen ce on the international foreign exchange markets and a drop in Sweden's mone y market interest rates. But Svenska Handelsbanken, a leading commercial ban k, warned yesterday in its latest economic forecast that for at least the ne xt six months interest rates would remain above the levels existing before t he financial crisis began. However, it suggested a Swedish export recovery w ould strengthen overseas market confidence in the country's fixed exchange r ate policy and the interest rate differential rate between Sweden and German y would narrow. It predicts a further drop of 0.4 per cent in GNP next year after an estimated decline of 1.7 per cent this year. The forecast shows onl y a modest 1.5 per cent recovery in 1994. It also predicts a sizeable declin e in property investment of 46.5 per cent, but a strong recovery in the trad e balance and the balance of payments. Swedes, however, will see real income s fall next year by 1.9 per cent, with only a 0.7 per cent improvement in 19 94. The Financial Times London Page 2 ============= Transaction # 42 ============================================== Transaction #: 42 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:30 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-13122 _AN-EA0DIACDFT 940 127 FT 27 JAN 94 / Family loses out in social changes: M ore people live alone - Sharp increase in divorce rate By ALAN PIKE, Social Affairs Correspondent An apparently unequal struggle between the conventional family and social and demographic change is shown today in Social Trends, the Central Statistical Office's an nual compendium of British life. Political controversies over the future of the welfare state and the causes of crime have brought the role of tradition al family values into sharp focus. But Social Trends shows that, while the d ebate continues, so does the decline of the traditional family. Couples with dependent children formed the majority of households as recently as the ear ly 1970s. By 1992 they constituted less than 40 per cent, and it is now incr easingly likely that such couples will not be married. One significant reaso n for the change is a growing proportion of people living alone. Single peop le now account for more than a quarter of all households - there has been a threefold increase in the proportion of people living alone during the past 30 years. The biggest recent growth has been among men of working age, but t he ageing of the population is another factor that will fuel a continuing in crease in single-person households. By the year 2031 there will be more than 16m people of pensionable age in Britain's population - more than double th e 1961 number. Recent years have seen an even more striking rise in the prop ortion of lone-parent families - these have quadrupled since the early 1960s . The government's General Household Survey, also published this week, shows that 21 per cent of families were headed by lone parents in 1992. The main increase in single-parent households occurred during the 1970s and 1980s, an d there has been little further change in the proportion since 1990, the gov ernment's household survey adds. Allied to this change is Social Trends' now -familiar soaring graph showing the remarkable rise in births outside marria ge. Unmarried mothers now account for almost one-in-three births - an increa se from the one-in-20 level that, apart from the two world wars, had persist ed throughout the century until the 1960s. In Scotland and the north-east of England, 90 per cent of mothers under 20 were unmarried in 1992. The propor tion of births outside marriage more than doubled during the 1980s alone. Bu t the children do not all grow up in single-parent families - in 1992, 75 pe r cent of babies born outside marriage were registered by both parents. Divo rce, as well as births outside marriage, is contributing to the growth in si ngle-parent households. Marriages have declined by nearly 16 per cent during the past 20 years, while divorces have more than doubled. Some politicians hope that a renewed appreciation of the importance of community involvement will fill the gaps created by fragmenting family relationships. However, evi dence in Social Trends suggests that this may be wishful thinking. Surveys s how that only 4 per cent of the population has taken an active part in a pol itical campaign. The proportion of churchgoers is, at 15 per cent, lower tha n in many other European countries. Almost 75 per cent of the population has done no recent voluntary work. Some of the active minority who do volunteer put in more than 10 hours a month - but this compares with nearly 27 hours a week spent by the average citizen watching television. Social Trends 24. H MSO. Pounds 27. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P8732 Commercial Nonphysical Research. Types:- STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London Page 8 ============= Transaction # 43 ============================================== Transaction #: 43 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:49 Selec. Rec. #: 19 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-2767 _AN-BD0APAD9FT 9104 27 FT 27 APR 91 / Fall in US output indicates recession is growing worse By MICHAEL PROWSE WASHINGTON TOTAL US output fell at an annual rate of 2.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, confirming a worsening of the recession since Christmas, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. The fall in inflation-adjusted gross national product was larger than many e conomists expected and will provide further ammunition for the White House, which is pressing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Earlier this we ek, news of a 6 per cent decline in durable goods orders last month dampened hopes of an early recovery from recession. Most forecasters, however, still expect the recession to bottom out sometime during the summer. The 2.8 per cent annual rate of decline in real GNP in the first quarter follows an annu al rate of decline of 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. Two s uccessive quarterly declines in GNP - the conventional yardstick of a recess ion - were last registered during the 1981-82 downturn. This week, the Natio nal Bureau of Economic Research, a group of prominent American economists, f ormally dated the onset of recession to last July. It said the business cycl e peak of that month ended an expansion lasting 92 months, the longest since the 1960s and the second longest since 1854. The bureau's pronouncements ca rry considerable weight. However, its timing of the onset of recession clash es with that of the White House and Federal Reserve. Both have argued that I raq's invasion of Kuwait in August - and the subsequent rise in oil prices a nd collapse of consumer confidence - triggered the recession. The first-quar ter figures indicate that the profile of the recession is changing. Personal consumption spending, which accounts for about two thirds of economic activ ity, declined at an annual rate of only 1.4 per cent, compared with 3.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year. But the positive impact of this slow ing in the decline of consumption was offset by a sharp downturn in capital spending and a stalling of export growth. Non-residential fixed investment d eclined at an annual rate of 14 per cent in the first quarter compared with growth of 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. The Financial Times London Page 2 ============= Transaction # 44 ============================================== Transaction #: 44 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:53:59 Selec. Rec. #: 20 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-12270 _AN-DA3AKAD0FT 930 129 FT 29 JAN 93 / S Africa inflation at 15-year low By PHILIP GAWITH JOHANNESBURG < /DATELINE> SOUTH AFRICA'S inflation rate has dropped into single figu res for the first time in nearly 15 years, reviving hopes of a turnround in the economy, writes Philip Gawith in Johannesburg. Figures released by the C entral Statistical Service (CSS) show that the rate of inflation, measured b y the consumer price index, declined to 9.6 per cent in December from 11 per cent in November. This is the lowest rate of inflation since June 1978. The CPI declined by five percentage points in the second half of 1992, having s tood at 16.2 at the end of 1991. Economists have long been predicting a furt her drop in interest rates, and the most recent inflation figures have bolst ered their case. Dr Chris Stals, governor of the Reserve Bank, said yesterda y that the bank was re-examining its monetary policy - often a signal for a cut in rates. The prime lending rate currently stands at 17.25 per cent. Mr Dave Mohr, chief economist at the Old Mutual group, said the decline in the inflation rate, which was sharper than predicted, was partly a function of l arge increases in the CPI in the second half of 1991, and partly the result of very small increases in the corresponding period in 1992. He cited lower meat and vegetable prices, and falling mortgage rates as important contribut ory factors. Other factors include a fairly strong exchange rate, and firm m onetary policy with real interest rates now running at about 7.5 per cent. M r Mohr said inflation, which is a lagging indicator, reflected the weak stat e of the economy for most of 1992. Countries:- ZAZ S outh Africa, Africa. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxat ion, and Monetary Policy. Types:- ECON Inflation. ECON Gross domestic product. The Financial Times L ondon Page 4 ============= Transaction # 45 ============================================== Transaction #: 45 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:54:22 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 46 ============================================== Transaction #: 46 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:54:38 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-2291 _AN-BEABLAA0FT 9105 01 FT 01 MAY 91 / Migrants halt decline in Scottish popu lation By JAMES BUXTON, Scottish Correspondent THE long-running gentle decline in the Scottish population was r eversed last year for the first time since the mid-1970s as Scotland, normal ly a reliable source of emigrants, received an influx of migrants. In the ye ar to June 30 1990 the estimated population rose by 11,700 to 5,102,400, acc ording to Scotland's registrar general. A net 13,500 people migrated into Sc otland, most of them from the rest of Britain, but also from abroad. This of fset a natural fall in the population of 1,400 caused by a high number of de aths from influenza in the winter of 1989-90 and a relatively low number of births. The gradual decline in the Scottish population and, until recently, high levels of emigration have long been a matter of concern to the governme nt, as well as a source of political point scoring by opposition parties, no tably the Scottish National party. The Financial Times < PAGE> London Page 8 ============= Transaction # 47 ============================================== Transaction #: 47 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:54:54 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-2291 _AN-BEABLAA0FT 9105 01 FT 01 MAY 91 / Migrants halt decline in Scottish popu lation By JAMES BUXTON, Scottish Correspondent THE long-running gentle decline in the Scottish population was r eversed last year for the first time since the mid-1970s as Scotland, normal ly a reliable source of emigrants, received an influx of migrants. In the ye ar to June 30 1990 the estimated population rose by 11,700 to 5,102,400, acc ording to Scotland's registrar general. A net 13,500 people migrated into Sc otland, most of them from the rest of Britain, but also from abroad. This of fset a natural fall in the population of 1,400 caused by a high number of de aths from influenza in the winter of 1989-90 and a relatively low number of births. The gradual decline in the Scottish population and, until recently, high levels of emigration have long been a matter of concern to the governme nt, as well as a source of political point scoring by opposition parties, no tably the Scottish National party. The Financial Times < PAGE> London Page 8 ============= Transaction # 48 ============================================== Transaction #: 48 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:55:40 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-5103 _AN-CFBA3ADDFT 9206 02 FT 02 JUN 92 / Survey of The Earth Summit (8): Popula tion surge is a crucial issue - There may well be 10bn people on the earth b y the year 2050 By HILARY DE BOERR THE WORLD'S population is growing at an unprecedented rate, consuming more r esources than ever - nearly a billion people will be added to the planet dur ing the 1990s, according to the Worldwatch Institute. As the number of poor people is increasing, human migration is growing and renewable resources, su ch as water and land are increasingly under threat. Such realities make the population issue a crucial one for sustainable development. There are about 5.5bn people in the world, with an average annual increase of 97m projected for the coming decade. International experts agree that population growth ra tes will have to be reduced, and the pattern of human activities changed, if ecological catastrophe is to be averted. The two go hand-in-hand because it is not simply high population growth rates that are threatening the environ ment. Developed countries, with relatively low birth rates, consume most of the world's resources. A Bangladeshi, for example, consumes energy equivalen t to three barrels of oil a year, a US citizen 55 barrels. As Oxfam puts it: 'Industrialised countries generate significantly more damage per person to the global environment than do people in developing countries.' Sustainable development therefore calls for a fairer distribution of the benefits of dev elopment among the world's people. High population growth rates in developin g countries - where 80 per cent of the world's population lives - will, neve rtheless, put even greater pressure on the world's resources. The higher the population in developing countries, the higher their energy use and polluti on, especially as economies develop. More water is needed, more forests are cleared, inappropriate agricultural practices increase and wildlife species disappear. Population growth in developing countries is responsible for abou t 79 per cent of deforestation, 72 per cent of arable land expansion and 69 per cent of the growth in livestock numbers. Such problems are further compo unded by the increasing migration of people - to urban areas and to environm entally sensitive inland areas - in search of productive land and jobs. Addr essing high birth rates means addressing poverty in such countries, say inte rnational agencies. More than 1bn people live in absolute poverty without ad equate food, clothing or housing. North-South relationships regarding debt, trade, aid and technology transfer are seen as longer-term means of tackling poverty. Programmes to tackle high birth rates focus on improving third wor ld health and education, and providing readily available and affordable fami ly planning. Practice shows that birth rates can be reduced voluntarily by r aising the status of women through education and providing them with opportu nities other than the traditional child bearing role. It is thought that mor e than one in five births in developing countries may be unwanted. The worst case scenario for the population explosion is that there could be 12.5bn pe ople in the world by 2050 if immediate action is not taken. The most likely scenario is a figure of 10bn people. Fertility patterns can change in just o ne decade. Development and consumption patterns will have to follow suit, sa ys the United Nations Population Fund. 'World resources are adequate for the sustained development of the planet - if they are carefully used,' it warns . The Financial Times London Page V ============= Transaction # 49 ============================================== Transaction #: 49 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:56:05 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 50 ============================================== Transaction #: 50 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 12:56:31 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1,2,3,6,8,9,15,16,28 ============= Transaction # 51 ============================================== Transaction #: 51 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:58:21 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210157 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 52 ============================================== Transaction #: 52 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:58:46 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-892 _AN-DC1AGAB2FT 93032 7 FT 27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi gration has focused attention on soaring world population By BRONWEN MADDOX Industrialised countries will be co nfronted with an unprecedented influx of would-be immigrants in the next few decades, putting their economies under enormous pressure. That is the messa ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of the United Nations Population F und (UNFPA), to the UN conference on European population this week in Geneva . More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and Czechoslov akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward migration. This is quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik warned. Migration, many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the factor spur ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the world's soaring p opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's Earth Summit in Ri o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of the natural environ ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda. The Vatican's resistanc e to including population in the talks was unsurprising, but the Philippines and some Middle Eastern countries with high birth rates also proved obstruc tive. Environmental pressure groups, wary of telling developing countries ho w to manage their affairs, were also quiet. Such reticence is difficult to u nderstand in the light of UN population projections - one puts the world's p opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M r Miroslav Macura, demographer with the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r eminded the conference that the total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i f fertility rates turned out to differ even marginally from the model's assu mptions. Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two de cades. India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi ldren per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third in the last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family size, has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children per woman which maintains a static population. But across much of sub-Sahara n Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than 6. Recent studies, although based on less than perfect data, suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti ng only 1 percentage point off population growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren t famine, still has a fertility rate of about 3. According to Mr Fred Sai, p resident of the International Planned Parenthood Federation and chairman of Ghana's population council, African countries now recognise that family plan ning is a tool for health improvement. But the answers to restraining a high growth rate of population are not clear-cut. Recent evidence shows that the traditional assumption that family size falls with economic progress does n ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria and Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relatively low prosperity, whil e the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe riod of sharply rising wealth. 'For every level of prosperity, you can find an enormous range of fertility rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni versity. 'The things that really bring down family size are more complex, to do with culture and education'. Contraceptive programmes do help though, th e UNFPA, maintains: it called last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5 bn spent worldwide on family planning programmes to double by 2000. But even if such measures are successful, the population of developing countries wil l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries. Fertility rates i n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per woman - the UK rate is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below West German levels of 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the Federal Population Inst itute of Germany. The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c urrently outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t he number of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, and could reach 310m in 2025. The idea that any resulting labour gap could b e filled by immigration is disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p er cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working, an d there is plenty of slack.' Past immigration can adversely affect the host country, he added. The availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high-technology industries, he said . It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg e to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences. ----------- ------------------------------------- Immigration pressure on developed coun tries from growth in developing countries' population --------------------- --------------------------- Pop in Increase (million) 1991 by 2005 ---------------------------------------------- -- Western Europe 379 4 Eastern Europe 124 11 E x-Soviet Union 209 10 US 253 81 Medit erranean* 186 158 Latin America 451 289 Tropical Africa 531 826 South Asia 1,206 920 ------------ ------------------------------------ Source: D Coleman, Oxford University *s outh-east Mediterranean ------------------------------------------------ Countries:- QOZ Developed Countries. Indust ries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- G OVT Government News. The Financial Times London Pa ge 9 ============= Transaction # 53 ============================================== Transaction #: 53 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:59:13 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-36 _AN-EI3DUAH3FT 940930 FT 30 SEP 94 / Survey of World Economy and Finance - Tr ade and the World Economy (34): A host of future problems - Population / Bro nwen Maddox analyses results of the Cairo conference By BRONWEN MADDOX Alarm and hope: those are governments' t win reactions to the latest batch of projections from the United Nations on how many people will be occupying the planet in the next century. One messag e behind the figures is that high population growth in developing countries remains a threat to their prosperity, and through migration, to that of deve loped countries as well. But other messages are that growing populations nee d not represent the apocalypse which has been predicted by many, and that th ere is much governments can do to slow down the increase. This month's UN co nference on population and development in Cairo, the first to tackle the con tentious subject for a decade, stirred up controversy on many fronts. The Va tican formally registered its reservations to nearly half the chapters in th e final text, on the grounds that it condoned abortion as a form of contrace ption. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), which organised the conference, denie d that the text had that interpretation, but several Catholic countries in L atin America also lodged reservations to sections. However, despite an infor mal alliance between the Vatican and Moslem governments in the run-up to Cai ro, governments achieved a much greater degree of agreement at Cairo on resp onses to the threat of population growth than seemed possible at the previou s UN conferences in 1984 or 1974. The final document set a target for annual spending on family planning of Dollars 17bn a year by 2000, from national p rogrammes and international aid, which marks a threefold increase on present levels. Most governments acknowledged at Cairo that it is in their own inte rest to take steps to help people limit the sizes of their families, given t he formidable projections of the world's population. According to the UNFPA' s annual report, published in August, the total is set to reach a sobering 1 0bn by the middle of the next century, up from 5.7bn at present. The UNFPA's projection assumes that the average number of children born to each woman w ill continue to fall, as it has done for several decades; other assumptions, only slightly different, produce estimates of the total number of people in 2050 between 7.8bn and 12.5bn. These increases will put increasing strains on natural resources of all kinds, both global resources, such as the atmosp here and seas, and regional. Water, in particular, may prove 'an increasing cause of friction' between countries and regions, the UNFPA suggests. The im plications of these projections for the distribution of wealth between count ries and continents are also considerable. The World Bank estimates, in a re port released ahead of Cairo, that 61 per cent of the world's population wil l live in countries with per capita incomes of below Dollars 350 a year (in 1990 money values). That compares with 57 per cent in 1985. Over the same pe riod, the proportion of people living in countries with per capita incomes o ver Dollars 19,590 will fall from 16 per cent to 11 per cent. Moreover, the bank warns that by 2100, 10 out of 11 people will live in the developing wor ld, compared to four out of five at present, and two out of three in 1950. M uch of the increase will come in Africa: the present annual growth in the co ntinent's population of 2.9 per cent a year is the highest in the world. Tha t rate outstrips by some way the annual Asian and Latin American growth of l ess than 2 per cent, according to the UNFPA. Within developing countries, pe ople will drift to the cities in search of jobs, prompted by competition for land and water in rural areas. The World Bank estimates that in 2025, 57 pe r cent of the population in developing countries will live in cities, compar ed to less than half now. As a result of those pressures, developed countrie s should prepare to face growing pressures for immigration, the bank warns. As their populations are growing slowly, they should expect their share of t he world's population to shrink. While North America's population is edging up at 1 per cent a year, the rate is only 0.5 per cent a year in the former Soviet Union and 0.3 per cent a year in western Europe. Meanwhile, their pop ulations are ageing: the UNFPA expects the proportion of people aged 65 and over in industrialised countries to rise from the present 12.7 per cent to 1 8.4 per cent by 2025. To set against those threats, UN figures provide some ammunition to counter fears of a global food shortage, of the kind voiced by the 'Club of Rome' school of forecasters some 20 years ago. The UNFPA obser ves that 'during the past 10 years, the world's food production has increase d by 24 per cent, outpacing the rate of population growth'. But the improvem ent in food production has been unevenly distributed, the UNFPA also points out. In Africa, food production fell by 5 per cent while population rose by a third. While the UN maintains that food supplies 'should be sufficient to meet all needs for the foreseeable future', the poorer regions and countries will face severe shortages. Reason to worry, then; but the past two decades also provide grounds for hope that governments can help bring down populati on growth rates. Most developing countries - even, in the past few years, th ose in sub-Saharan Africa - have seen fertility rates fall. According to UNF PA officials, a decade ago many African countries saw growing populations as a useful tool to increase prosperity. Now, seeing the growth jeopardise the fruits of investment in health, education, infrastructure and agriculture, they are showing a greater readiness to promote family planning. The UNFPA s ays that governments now appreciate that making contraception more widely av ailable helps bring down fertility rates, even if economic development has b een slow. Demographers' new message is that if people are given the means to control the number of children they have, even in the poorest countries the y frequently choose to have fewer. The past decade has shown governments the threat which uncurbed population growth can pose to prosperity. But it has also helped generate confidence among governments that growth rates can be t ackled, and broad agreement on ways to do that. Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Administr ation of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page XX ============= Transaction # 54 ============================================== Transaction #: 54 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 12:59:49 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-12411 _AN-EA4DIAAPFT 940 131 FT 31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2 ): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections By BRONWEN MADDOX According to United Nations forecasts, the population of the world is likely to double - to more than 1 0bn people - by the middle of the next century. This will be one of the bigg est forces shaping living standards of future generations. Although growth w ill take place almost entirely in developing countries, few countries will b e able to insulate themselves from the effects. However, population growth w as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, although it is the source of increasing pressure on natural resources and the environment in many regi ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity of the issue was so great - provo king debates about differing cultural and religious values - that it would f rustrate attempts to reach agreement on other fronts. Even at the time of th e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as Prince Charles pointed out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although countries put their name s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and bio-diversity (the variety of the world's wildlife), many have found difficulty in drawing up realistic pl ans for curbing environmental damage. The omission has also allowed the noti on of 'sustainable development' to remain confused. That principle, which go vernments attending Rio pledged to observe, does not define whether resource s are to be preserved at a certain level for each person or simply for each country. Countries with rapidly growing populations will find it almost impo ssible to preserve resources - however defined - on a per capita basis. But although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably larg e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago. Prominent among 1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food, energy and raw m aterials would run out. Since then, food production has increased while popu lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many countries now looks li ke one of the development successes of the past two decades. Many Asian and Latin American countries have had particular success in bringing down the ra te of population growth. India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the average number of children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of about four. That figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de cades - although still higher than the figure of just over two children per woman which would maintain a static population. However, across much of sub- Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than six children per woman. Demographers studying why some countries have had more success th an others point out that there is no straightforward formula to apply. Longs tanding assumptions that as a country develops, its birth rate falls, fail t o explain some of the patterns now observed. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relativ ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than three children per woman during a period of fast economic growth. Instead, demographers are having to put together a more complex picture, in which access to contraception, the level of female education and the availa bility of jobs for women all play a part. There has also been international concern about the measures sometimes employed to restrain birth rates, parti cularly in China, which has fiercely applied limits on family size. The scal e of China's problem is undeniable: China now has nearly a quarter of the wo rld's population on about 7 per cent of the world's arable land. According t o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to about 1.9 f rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as western Europe an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the measures used by the Chinese government - including limiting urban families to one child - ha ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is infringing human rights . Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav e outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn agai nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right. They p oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put severe pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment. They also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised countries an d the steady fall in the average age of the population in developing countri es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years old currently outnu mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North America. But pensioners wi ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, t he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has said. Mr David Coleman, a demo grapher at Oxford University, says that environmental degradation, pressure on resources and the search for jobs will cause industrialised countries to be confronted with an unprecedented influx of immigrants from poorer countri es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures - even taking account only those who have already been born. More than 2m imm igrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. So far, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, but political ch aos in Russia could intensify westward migration. Governments and internatio nal agencies for aid, development and the environment may still be coy about addressing issues of curbing population growth. But they will increasingly find the subject unavoidable. Worries about consumption of resources and deg radation of the environment are well-established. But migration may be the f actor which finally makes countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de veloping - face these questions. Countries:- QOZ Dev eloped Countries. XMZ Africa. INZ India, Asia. CNZ China, Asi a. XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin America. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times Survey YOU Pag e 2 ============= Transaction # 55 ============================================== Transaction #: 55 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:00:36 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210157 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 56 ============================================== Transaction #: 56 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:00:43 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-808 _AN-EI0DNAGMFT 94092 7 FT 27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe (3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im plications of an ageing population By EVA KALUZYNSKA Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati on is already aged 65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the rest of the world. 'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the century,' said Dr David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia lising in trends affecting Europe. There are relatively minor variations in birth and death rates among the 17 countries in the European Economic Area ( EEA), but the picture is very clear. Any company considering relocation will obviously factor in current levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre ece, Spain and the UK; highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer s must tune into demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l ong-term personnel policy off the ground. 'Companies may be thinking of movi ng now to a country where costs are low, but they must plan now to keep them low,' said employee-benefits specialist David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo wndes. The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro stat, in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na tural population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra te remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from 11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand. Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU) , are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only in Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor e children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year. Demographers are ringing alarm bells about the need to adjust policies now, both at company and government level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro stat's project on demography. 'In the next five to 10 years it is going to h ave the most acute problems in adjusting to an ageing workforce.' Italy and Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious in France , which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be mothers. The U K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what Cruijsen calls an abn ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen elsewhere in Europe. The o verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent, rather t han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the existing pool of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts agree on the need for two significant shifts in policy and attitude: postponing the age of re tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour force. 'Seniors will sta y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it. Many employees able to do so have retired early over the past decade, and many still expect to do so. 'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy and Japan are already plannin g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and other countries will follow suit, experts say. 'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne ss,' said Coleman. 'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th at a person is old and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.' The idea of older people giving up their places in the workforce to youngsters gathered favour during the recession, though without any significant effect in reduci ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend, rejuvenating their workforc es in the belief that younger people adapted better to new technologies. But Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities: 'Empl oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who have specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult, and fl exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees could be part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe people wil l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.' Employers cas ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make better use of women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent of the labour force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female participation, at 46 .6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2) and the UK(43.2). Ir eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All projections for modest gro wth in the labour force at the turn of the century come from increased level s of female participation,' says Coleman. Formosa thinks employers will come round to offering women with caring responsibilities for children or older people more flexible working arrangements, as they realise the value of doin g so. 'I believe employers will make more of an effort to keep women, as the re is more difficulty in finding replacements.' Coleman estimates that, if a ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female participation in the labour force, the recruits would more than make up for any shortfall. 'There is a hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will be mobilised as married wome n increasingly take up work or return to work.' Europe's ageing workforce ca n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher retirement ages as the ratio of taxpayers to recipients descends from the current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc entives to retire early will go, and the prospect of lower incomes will obli ge seniors to work on. Employers are likely to become involved in improving pension provisions, partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s chemes to which they are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo r later retirement. Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w hich pensions systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir ement will cut the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments. So me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the imbalance in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is no quick fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal migrants, other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he says: 'It se ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour, especially since future demand emphasises high skills.' Importing cheap young labour would ex acerbate one of Europe's biggest problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg ues that western Europe must deal with the impending crisis through making t he best use of its own resources. It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem ployment and invest in more capital-intensive processes to improve productiv ity. And it should mobilise more of its potential working population by maki ng it easier for women to work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren t retirement age. Canny employers can start planning now. Count ries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P9441 Admini stration of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pag e II ============= Transaction # 57 ============================================== Transaction #: 57 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:02:20 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-4933 _AN-ECICYACPFT 9403 09 FT 09 MAR 94 / Can Europe Compete?: Balance of econom ic power begins to shift - David Marsh sees opportunities in Europe's laggin g performance By DAVID MARSH Europe ans are no strangers to periods of lagging economic performance. The fortune s of ancient Egypt waxed and waned over 2,000 years, while most of Europe wa s a barbaric wilderness populated by goatherds. The cycles of world history have since accelerated and become interconnected, to a degree barely conceiv able even a generation ago. As it tackles the problem of fading dynamism, Eu rope must weather a phase of unsettling political and economic transition. ' Europe can be under no illusion that it faces very strong competition from t he US and Asia,' says Mr Ernst-Antoine Selliere, vice-president in charge of economic affairs at the French Patronat employers' organisation. 'But, prov ided we loosen constraints on our competitiveness, this can be an opportunit y.' The European nations that launched the manufacturing revolutions of the 18th and 19th centuries ceded industrial leadership to the US after the firs t world war. Now, as a result of global upheavals in technology and communic ations, another shift in the balance of economic power may be imminent - thi s time, towards the rapidly expanding economies of the Pacific Rim. Using Wo rld Bank data and its own assumptions about future growth, Union Bank of Swi tzerland (UBS) projects that, in the first decade of next century, purchasin g power income per head in Singapore and Korea will exceed that of the US. I ncomes in Singapore are already close to the west European average. Accordin g to similarly derived projections by UK accountants Coopers and Lybrand, th e share of world GDP taken by Asian developing countries (including both Chi na and India) could rise to 28 per cent in 2010 from 18 per cent in 1990. We stern Europe's share would fall to 17 per cent from 22 per cent, while the U S's would fall to 18 per cent from 23 per cent. This projection assumes annu al growth in both western Europe and the US of 2.5 per cent, against 6 per c ent in Asia. Even if the growth differential is less, Europe will drop down the economic rankings. But Europe's likely decline needs to be put into pers pective. First, it is natural that less well-off countries move closer to we althy ones. Over the past 20 years, the gulf between many rich and poor coun tries has widened. Where gaps have narrowed, they normally remain large. Acc ording to World Bank figures (based on constant dollar exchange rates rather than purchasing power parities), by 2000 the ratio between average GDP per capita in western Europe and east Asia will be an 18 to 1, compared with 48 to 1 in 1970. Second, as living standards rise in less developed countries, wealth should flow back to Europe through increased trade and investment. Pr ovided European companies match international advances in management and tec hnology, Europe can maintain a strong competitive advantage in goods and ser vices the rest of the world wants. This requires that borders remain open an d protectionist pressure is resisted. Professor Richard Portes, director of the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research, believes a narrowing o f the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world need not be disast rous. 'I'm very sceptical about the views of the doomsayers.' Differences in real wages between western Europe and other manufacturing regions will narr ow, he says, in the same way that US wages, relative to those in Europe, hav e fallen since the 1950s. This need not stop European living standards risin g. According to UBS's projections, western Europe's growth rate will pick up early in the 21st century, as the continent benefits from the 'catch up' ph enomenon, under which countries that lag adopt innovations from the leaders. A striking example of 'catch up' has been US success in the 1980s in reacti ng to the competitive threat from Japan by importing 'just-in-time' Japanese production technology, says Mr Bill Gasser, UBS's senior international econ omist. But, as it tries to adapt, Europe has one big disadvantage. The fast- increasing share of GDP taken by government spending in the past decade -a rise well under way before the onset of the European recession in 1992-93 - has imposed a growing burden on business. Social spending is the biggest sin gle portion of these outlays. The OECD says social security transfers in the EU will account for 21.5 per cent of GDP in 1994, up from 16.4 per cent in 1989 - double the percentage rise in the last downturn in 1979-1982. In rela tion to GDP, EU social transfers exceed US and Japanese levels by 50 per cen t and 78 per cent. As a community of nation states, western Europe faces gre ater difficulties than the US did a decade ago in adopting common policies t o recover dynamism. But Europe's diversity is also a trump card. Different p arts of the continent can draw upon varying strengths and specialisations. T here is little disagreement on the diagnosis of Europe's core problems. The task is to implement corrective measures: Growth of public spending on welfa re is placing intolerable strains on budget deficits - one reason for high t axes and interest rates. Beyond simply cutting benefits, governments need a new balance between public and private sector social security provision. The number of old people in Europe could outstrip resources to care for them. I maginative solutions will be required, returning the elderly to family envir onments and using technological advances to moderate medical costs. More fle xible labour markets are needed, including improved possibilities for part-t ime work and less rigid wage-bargaining mechanisms. The collapse in demand f or unskilled labour creates the potential for an integrated tax and welfare system allowing low-paid workers to be paid partly by employers and partly b y tax credits. Europe must overcome its technological lag. Companies at the forefront of scientific advance must improve links both to the markets they serve and the education establishments on which they draw. Europe needs a be tter balance between the costs and benefits of environmental regulation. Env ironmental rules have not yet been a significant spur to innovation or compe titive advantage. Plans for further integration, including widening (early n ext century) to central and eastern Europe, need to be based on liberal, ope n-market principles. Governments know Europe can prosper only if companies t hink globally. This can lead to some sharp modifications. Pointing to the la rge number of German companies shifting production abroad to escape high dom estic costs, Mr Ludolf von Wartenberg, general manager of the Federation of German Industry, says companies are moving away from a 'Made in Germany' tow ards a 'Designed in Germany' concept. German industry will regain competitiv eness, he says. But he admits doubts on how German society will cope with th e strain. This type of corporate reaction can be painful, but the absence of adjustment would have still more disturbing consequences. If European enter prises and employees can muster the flexibility to manage change and the fla ir to master it, salvation is assured. Countries:- US Z United States of America. JPZ Japan, Asia. QRZ European Economi c Community (EC). Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Market shares. ECON Gross domestic product. ECON Econom ic Indicators. The Financial Times London Page 14 < /PAGE> ============= Transaction # 58 ============================================== Transaction #: 58 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:03:16 Selec. Rec. #: 20 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-6848 _AN-EE0DLAHMFT 9405 27 FT 27 MAY 94 / Survey of Relocation in the UK (3): Po pulation grows grey / A look at how Britain compares with the rest of Europe By PHILIP COGGAN The UK population is growing. And, like that of much of western Europe, it is also greying. B ut while the increase in the pensioner population may cause problems in the middle of the 21st century, there is some good news in the shorter term. The number of people of working age (defined as men aged 16-64, and women aged 16-59) is still increasing, according to the Office of Population Censuses a nd Surveys. From around 35.5m in 1992, the working population is expected to increase to around 37.4m by 2011, while the overall UK population grows fro m just under 58m to 61.25m over the same period. The birth rate in the UK ha s edged up in recent years after the lows of the late 1970s and early 1980s; live births per 1,000 people were 13.5 in 1992, compared with an average of 12.9 in 1981-85. Nevertheless, the fertility rate is still below the replac ement level of 2.1. Children were 25 per cent of the population in 1971, but are expected to be only 18 per cent in 2031. It is only a low death rate, a s life expectancy marches ever upwards, that keeps the population growing. ( Immigration plays a small part. The UK had a net inflow of 34,000 people in 1992.) The average male born in 1990 had a life expectancy of 73 years, comp ared with 67.9 years in 1961; female life expectancy grew from 73.8 to 78.5 years over the same period. The UK's population profile is not too bad in Eu ropean terms. In terms of maintaining a future workforce, the key is the num ber of those aged 0-19 as a proportion of those people of working age. Here the champion is Ireland, which has more than one child for every person of w orking age, while the UK ranks seventh out of 17 countries surveyed by the O PCS in 1990-91. Bottom of the league is Germany, which has only one child fo r every three people of working age. The number of 16-year-olds joining the UK workforce has been steadily declining from a peak of 936,000 in 1981 and may have reached a trough of 628,000 in 1993. It is now expected to rise gen tly during the rest of the century. The UK does not rank quite so well on th e greying factor. There were 39 people aged over 60 for every 100 of working age in 1990-91, the third highest total of the European nations studied. (S weden was the greyest with 43 people over 60 for every 100 of working age.) According to the OPCS, there were 8.93m people of pensionable age in England and Wales in 1981, 18 per cent of the total; by 1991, there were 9.45m, 18. 5 per cent of the total. And within the ranks of the pensioners, the number of people aged over 75 increased from 2.93m (5.9 per cent of the total popul ation) in 1981 to 3.62m (7.1 per cent) in 1991. The growing numbers of the e lderly will undoubtedly create social costs (particularly in terms of health and pensions provision) which will probably be reflected in higher taxes fo r the working population. However, greying is a European-wide problem. About a fifth of the European Union's 320m citizens are aged over 60 (with 20m ag ed over 74). By 2010, the proportion of over-60s is projected to grow to 23 per cent and to 25 per cent by 2040. The only countries expected to have a p ensioner population of less than 20 per cent in 2010 are Portugal and Irelan d. Steps may be taken to alleviate potential problems by increasing the pens ionable age. In the UK, the plan is for the retirement age for women to be i ncreased to 65, to match that of men. This change will be phased in between the years 2010 and 2020. The effect, according to the OPCS, is that the numb er of pensioners in the UK will peak at 15.2m in 2038, compared with a total of 16.8m had the change not occurred. Within England, population rose in ev ery region bar two between 1981 and 1991. The exceptions were the north and the north-west, which experienced a fall of 0.1 per cent per year. East Angl ia and the south-west saw the fastest growth rates, at 0.9 and 0.7 per cent a year respectively. In 1992, the English region with the highest proportion of people of working age was the south-east with 61.2 per cent (64.1 per ce nt in greater London itself). The region with the lowest proportion was the south-west, with 59.2 per cent. In terms of the future, the region with the highest proportion of those under 16 is the north-west, with 21.2 per cent, while the south-west is the lowest with 19.2 per cent. Looking at the rest o f the UK, Northern Ireland has a higher proportion of children than any Engl ish region, at 25.7 per cent, while Scotland beats all the English regions i n terms of the proportion of people of working age, at 62 per cent. OPCS pro jections show that, in 2011, the south-east region will still have the lowes t proportion of pensioners and the highest proportion of those of working ag e in England; the south-west will still be at the opposite end of the scale on both counts. The south-east will also have moved to top the scale in term s of the proportion of children. However, a study of migration flows shows t hat people have been leaving the south-east for the rest of England. In the five years between 1988 and 1992, the south-east experienced a net migration outflow to the rest of the UK of 206,000. In fact, all of that and more was a loss from greater London, which had an outflow of 250,000. The region whi ch saw the biggest inflow was the south-west, which gained 119,000. The east midlands and East Anglia both gained, while the west midlands and the north -west were net losers. Within the UK as a whole, there has been a small migr ation from England to the other three countries. And there has been a steady shift away from cities towards more rural areas. Perhaps as the elderly ret reat from the towns to retire to 'rural bliss', this trend will continue. - -------------------------------------------------------------------- UK population (thousands) --------------------------------- ------------------------------------ Mid-year UK England Wales Scotland N Ireland figures -------------------------------------- ------------------------------- 1961* 52,807 43,561 2,635 5,184 1,427 1971* 55,928 46,412 2,740 5,236 1,540 1976* 56,216 46,660 2,799 5,233 1,52 4 1981* 56,352 46,821 2,813 5,180 1,538 1986* 56,850 47,342 2,820 5,121 1,567 1987* 57,008 47,488 2,833 5,112 1,575 1988* 57,159 47,633 2,854 5,094 1,578 1989* 57,352 47,809 2,869 5,091 1,583 1990* 57,561 47,992 2,878 5,102 1,589 1991* 57,801 48,208 2,891 5,107 1,594 1992* 57,998 48,378 2,899 5,111 1,610 o f which, percentages 0-4 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4 8.0 5-15 13.7 13.5 14.0 13.7 17.7 16-44 42.0 42.0 39.6 42.6 42.1 45-64M/59F 19.3 19.3 19.8 19.5 17.2 65M/60F-74 11 .4 11.3 12.6 11.5 9.8 75 and over 7.0 7.0 7.4 6.4 5.2 -------------------------------------------- ------------------------- Projections (based on mid-1992 population estimate s) 1996 58,784 49,067 2,930 5,146 1,642 2001 59,800 50,023 2,966 5,143 1,667 2006 60,610 50,814 2,993 5,115 1,687 2111 61,257 51,458 3,013 5,077 1,709 of which, percentages 0-4 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 6.7 5-15 13.5 13.5 12.9 13.6 15.3 16-44 37.4 37.5 35.9 36.2 39.7 45-64M/59F 23.6 23.6 23.2 24.5 21.2 65M/60F-74 12.0 11.9 13.4 12.4 10.7 75 and over 7.8 7.8 9.0 7.9 6.4 --- ------------------------------------------------------------------ *=Estimat es --------------------------------------------------------------------- So urce: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys --------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P9441 Administr ation of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Co mment & Analysis. STATS Statistics. The Financial Times London Page II ============= Transaction # 59 ============================================== Transaction #: 59 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:03:52 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210157 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 60 ============================================== Transaction #: 60 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:04:01 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-35 _AN-CI3CBAE1FT 920930 FT 30 SEP 92 / Survey of Finland (2): Perhaps the worst is over - After a deep recession, there are signs that the economy is start ing to recover THE Finnish economy is going through its d eepest and longest recession for over 60 years. In 1991 the country's real g ross domestic product plummeted by 6.5 per cent, the sharpest drop Finland h as known this century in peacetime. There will be a negative growth rate - o f at least a further minus 1.5 per cent - this year. Production in manufactu ring sank by as much as 10.7 per cent last year while there was a 12.1 per c ent decline in production in the construction sector. Unemployment, only 3.5 per cent in 1990, climbed to 7.6 per cent last year and is now over 14 per cent. This winter the number of jobless is expected to peak at about 350,000 or 15 per cent of the population. Finland's current account deficit will to tal FM18bn in the current year, 3.3 per cent of GDP. The collapse of the cou ntry's trade with the former Soviet Union has been particularly painful with a fall of no less than 65 per cent last year alone. The textile sector suff ered a 30 per cent contraction in its exports as a result. The squeeze on li ving standards has been severe. With a rise of only 2.2 per cent in real ear nings in 1991 and an expected zero increase this year, household real dispos able income rose by 0.7 per cent last year and fell by 5.5 per cent in 1992. During this year, Finland has started to pull itself painfully out of its s lump. 'Today we have rather a schizophrenic economy,' observes Dr Pentti Var tia, head of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla). A number of key indicators suggests that the worst could be over: Last November's 12. 3 per cent devaluation of the markka has helped the competitiveness of Finla nd's main export industries - pulp and paper and engineering. The volume of exports is likely to rise this year by 18 per cent. Although Finland's overs eas markets - Sweden and Britain - have been sluggish, both Germany and Fran ce have provided good export opportunities. Over the first six months of thi s year the country's metal and engineering sector enjoyed a rise of more tha n 20 per cent in its export earnings to FM25bn. The recovery has been partic ularly noticeable in the electro-technical and electronic sector as well as transport equipment while the export of steel and metals also improved. The picture has been less satisfactory in mechanical engineering. Fimet, Finland 's engineering federation, believes the demand abroad for goods from the cou ntry's metal and engineering sector will strengthen during 1993. This may co mpensate to a certain extent for the decline in the domestic market which lo oks like continuing into next year. Finland is likely to improve its labour productivity this year by 5.5 per cent and by a further 4 per cent in 1993, according to Ministry of Finance forecasts. There is expected to be an actua l 0.5 per cent decline in real earnings next year with an 8 per cent fall in labour costs in manufacturing measured by unit of output this year, with a further decline of 1.5 per cent in 1993. Inflation is going to be at histori cally low levels with a rise in next year's consumer price index of 2.5 per cent, half of which will be caused by increases in indirect taxes and public charges. The price competitiveness of Finland looks impressive for once. Bu t there is also a darker side to Finland's present economic outlook. Investm ent prospects remain bleak, according to the forecasts which suggest it may be 1994 before any upturn can be expected. As Etla says in its latest report : 'The commencement of investment activity is being hampered by the low capa city utilisation rate, high indebtedness and financing difficulties. The inv estment ratio will remain exceptionally low for several years and the capita l stock will be reduced.' The biggest single economic headache for the Finni sh government is the rapid escalation of its own debt. At the end of 1991 it amounted to 18.3 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. With loc al authority spending, the debt amounted to 23 per cent of GDP, at FM117bn. This year it is expected to have risen to FM160bn. The projections for the n ext few years suggest that without a much tighter government fiscal policy t he budget deficit and the funding of it will swallow up most of Finland's GD P by the middle of the decade. Why has the government's debt risen so fast? Part of the trouble stems from the decline in tax revenues as the recession has deepened. But Mr Aho, the prime minister, also blames the cost of financ ing rising unemployment and the banks' problems that have already forced the government to put aside about FM28bn to assist those in trouble. There is l ittle doubt that the public sector grew too fast in the carefree 1980s. By N ordic standards, Finland has a relatively small public sector. This year it accounts for 48 per cent of total output but the trend of public consumption since 1970 has been ever upwards. Taxes have risen as a proportion of GDP f rom 31.1 per cent in 1970 to 37.1 per cent today. 'Ordinary people understan d we cannot go on the way we were doing,' says Mr Iivo Viinanen, the country 's finance minister. Mr Jaakko Iloniemi, head of the Centre for Finnish Busi ness and Policy (Eva), agrees. 'There is a much greater national awareness o f the need for radical adjustments,' he says. 'It is up to us to clear up ou r own mess.' Most policy-makers accept the country's public sector must be r educed but the troubles centre over the precise detail on what has to be cut . The government is working on a medium-term strategy to reduce its spending programmes up to 1995. Next year the cuts already agreed by ministers amoun t to FM18bn, 10 per cent less than in 1992 with further cuts proposed of FM2 0bn-30bn for 1994 and 1995. Mr Viinanen warns that this will mean slicing aw ay at the state's large cash support for agriculture as well as a contractio n in the value of many social benefits and financial support for local autho rities. 'It is going to be hard to do this but anybody else would have to do the same,' he adds. 'The chickens are coming home to roost,' declares Mr Ja rl Kohler, head of the forestry employers' association. 'There is now a good rapport between government and industry. We are talking constructively toge ther now. Everybody accepts the reality.' Although the pulp and paper sector benefited competitively from last November's devaluation, Mr Kohler has no enthusiasm at all for the floating markka. The weak dollar has hit the indus try, as 20 per cent of its business is invoiced in that currency. Forestry's foreign debts total an estimated FM30bn. At present, Finnish paper mills op erate at only 81 per cent of capacity. Mr Kohler warns: 'We will only invest in new capacity when there is a market for the product and it is profitable .' Despite the turbulence of the markets and continuing anxieties over the f inancial sector, the Finnish economy should ease gradually upwards next year . Total output, according to government estimates, should improve by 3 per c ent in 1993 with a continuing strong export performance. The current account deficit looks set to fall to around FM10.5bn next year, or 2 per cent of GD P. There is also expected to be a modest recovery in investment in machinery and equipment of around 2.5 per cent. Industrial production looks set to gr ow by 5.5 per cent next year with a particularly sharp improvement in minera ls of 12.5 per cent and a 6.5 per cent increase in manufacturing. Inflation is set to rise slightly to 4 per cent through a further 10 per cent deprecia tion of the markka when it is eventually pegged again to the European Curren cy Unit. But Finnish average living standards will stagnate at best, if not decline further as unemployment stays high and domestic demand is squeezed. Wage 'flexibility' is expected to cut most real incomes despite a rise in la bour costs of around 4 to 5 per cent in engineering and forestry. After the spread of financial chaos across the European money markets last month, Finn ish policy-makers feel less harassed and apologetic about their decision to float the markka. They believe the European Commission in particular recogni ses they faced no alternative but to take such unorthodox action. However, F inland's economy remains more sensitive than most to the vagaries of the out side world. The size of the proposed government cuts package may go some way to calm the markets. But Mr Viinanen and his cabinet colleagues will need t o show greater determination if they hope to convince the foreign exchange d ealers that Finland is serious about coming to terms with more straitened ti mes. The Financial Times London Page II < /DOC> ============= Transaction # 61 ============================================== Transaction #: 61 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:04:51 Selec. Rec. #: 34 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-15170 _AN-DANCOADAFT 930 114 FT 14 JAN 93 / Economic Viewpoint: Give to me your s urplus workers By SAMUEL BRITTAN Pr esident-elect Bill Clinton owes his triumph not merely to the delayed recove ry from the US recession but also to a widespread belief that the American d ream is failing, and that the latest generation will not enjoy the same oppo rtunities as its parents and grandparents had. My inclination had been to sh rug off most of this talk as a reflection of the jaundiced attitude towards capitalism of the chattering classes on both sides of the Atlantic. Closer i nvestigation has impelled me to believe that there is something in the compl aints; but that there is little Clinton can do to remedy matters. Indeed, th e changes are an aspect of the reduction of income differences between Ameri can citizens and their geographical neighbours, which progressive politician s ought to welcome but seldom do. A standard analysis of the labour market d ata appears in an article by F Levy and R J Murnane in the September 1992 is sue of the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL). The authors' starting point is that real income per full-time employee was rising by 2.45 per cent per annum between 1947 and 1975, but by only 0.67 per cent in the 1973-88 period . The real median income of a 45-54-year-old man (this means that he is in t he middle of the income distribution) rose by more than 20 per cent in the d ecade to 1958, nearly 41 per cent in the decade to 1968, and by only 1 or 2 per cent in the decade to 1988. The near standstill in hourly pay is clearly associated with the much-discussed productivity slowdown. President George Bush's outgoing Council of Economic Advisers has suggested that a change of gear has taken place, from an underlying 3 per cent annual growth in busines s sector output per hour up to the early 1970s to 0.9 per cent since then. T he squeeze on hourly pay has not been reflected nearly as much in disposable income and spending. Higher participation rates have helped family income. There has also been an increase in the share of property or non-wage receipt s such as property returns or social security payments. According to the ort hodox tabulations, not only did pay grow more slowly in recent years; but th ere was among male, although not female, workers a pro-cess known as polaris ation or 'hollowing out'. The proportion increased of relatively highly paid men earning more than Dollars 40,000 in dollars of constant 1988 value. But so did the proportion at the bottom end, earning less than Dollars 20,000. It was the numbers in between that fell. The near standstill in earnings dat es back to 1973. But I wonder if a study based on families and lifetime earn ings, rather than snapshots of pay per worker at any one time, would have co me to such dismal findings. Nevertheless, the slogan is that the US has been producing fewer middle-class jobs, in the American popular sense of jobs af fording a single family house, car and associated expenditures. In Europe th e reference would be to upper-working or lower-middle class jobs - C1s or C2 s in media classification. Toleration of 'polarisation' or other disparities depends on the prevailing general trend. As the JEL authors point out, when polarisation of earnings increases around a rapidly rising average, then th e poor get richer and rich get richer faster. When it grows around a stagnan t mean, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer; and an outcry is to be expected. One explanation of polarisation is the shift away from manufacturi ng, where the better-paid middle-class jobs had been found. Another factor h as been the increased premium on educational qualifications. There has also been a growing differential in favour of middle-aged workers against younger ones, probably reflecting the disadvantages of newcomers in manufacturing, where there have been few new vacancies. Quite apart from these identifiable differences, there have been growing gaps in wages paid by different compan ies for workers with the same qualifications, which researchers have been un able to explain. The academic studies might have yielded more insights if th eir authors had looked beyond the US frontier. For we are really seeing a ne w chapter in a story made familiar ever since western economic growth began to slow down after the 1973 oil price explosion. The US has taken the pressu re in the form of stagnant earnings and increased pay disparities. Europe ha s taken it in the form of inadequate employment opportunities. In 1973, the total number of jobs was very similar in the US to what it was in a group of central and western European countries selected by the OECD. Between then a nd 1989 (thus excluding the recent recession years), employment in these Eur opean countries has risen by a bare 5m, while in the US it has risen by 32m. Even in the 1970s the growth of population of working age could only explai n half the difference in job growth between the two sides of the Atlantic. I n the 1980s, the demographic disparity explained almost none of the differen ce, which represents American superiority in finding jobs for a greater prop ortion of its labour force. In fact, US job growth might have been much grea ter than the official figures suggest because of the unrecorded influx of wo rkers from Mexico and elsewhere. If there is a large increase in unskilled a nd semi-skilled labour, relative to capital and other resources, one would e xpect pay per head to come under pressure in a flexible labour market, and a verage labour productivity to stagnate as well. These phenomena are a mark n ot of failure, but of successful absorption of many new workers. Something l ike this would have happened in Germany if centralised agreements had not pr evented wages from coming down to market clearing levels. One hope behind th e North American Free Trade Association is that imports of goods will replac e immigrant inflows into the US. Even if, against all the odds, this were to happen, pay among skilled workers would still suffer from the pressures of competitive imports. Free trade normally provides an increase in overall nat ional income, but not necessarily for every section of the population. The U S still produces much more per head than its main competitors, including Jap an, and even its labour market problems are a sign that the Statue of Libert y is, however grudgingly, beckoning workers and goods from less-favoured are as. The orthodox diagnosis of the OECD is that the US needs to save more and invest more, which soon comes back to the old slogan of reducing the budget deficit. My own suspicion is that President Clinton would do more for his c ountry if he left the economy alone and concentrated on removing the laws ag ainst soft drugs, and thus acted against the main force for the criminalisat ion of US society. -------------------------------------------------------- -------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL US GROWTH RATES (AT CONSTANT PRICES) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1959-69 69-79 79-89 Consumer expend iture per capita 2.8 2.2 1.8 Disposable income per capita 2.9 2.2 1.5 Savings ratio* 6.5 7.1 4.4 Employment to population ratio* 58.0 59.9 63.0 Hourly compensation** 0.4 0.3 0.5 Outp ut per hour** 2.4 1.3 0.8 ---------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Source: OECD, US Econ omy 1992; * end of period; **non-farm business sector --------------------- ------------------------------------------------- Countries:- < /XX> USZ USA. Industries:- P96 Administration of Economic Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment and Analysis. STATS Statistics. ECON Economic Indicators. The Financi al Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 62 ============================================== Transaction #: 62 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:05:02 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210157 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 63 ============================================== Transaction #: 63 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:06:46 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 64 ============================================== Transaction #: 64 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:07:07 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 1 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robots})" ============= Transaction # 65 ============================================== Transaction #: 65 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:07:08 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 284 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 66 ============================================== Transaction #: 66 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:07:20 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 67 ============================================== Transaction #: 67 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:10:00 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 68 ============================================== Transaction #: 68 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:10:04 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-4691 _AN-DIHB8ABGFT 9309 08 FT 08 SEP 93 / World Trade News: ABB robots deal with GM Europe By ANDREW BAXTER ABB Rob otics, part of Asea Brown Boveri, has won a 'breakthrough' order worth nearl y Dollars 20m to supply more than 200 industrial robots to General Motors Eu rope. The deal is ABB Robotics' first European order from GM, which has prev iously bought most of its robots from its former joint venture company, GMFa nuc Robotics. Last year, however, GM sold its 50 per cent stake in GMFanuc t o its partner, Fanuc of Japan, as part of its strategy to concentrate on its core business of vehicle production. The robots are part of substantial inv estments by GM at its plants in Belgium, Germany, Sweden and the UK. At leas t 120 of the robots ABB is supplying will go to the Vauxhall Motors plant in Luton. Most of the robots will be delivered next year, and will be mainly u sed for spot welding. ABB Robotics said the performance and cost efficiency of its product line were key factors in winning the order against fierce Jap anese competition. ABB Robotics' and the renamed Fanuc Robotics are the two biggest suppliers of robots to European industry. Over the past decade, the automotive industry has been the largest customer for industrial robots. It remains important to the robot industry even if growth opportunities are hig her in less robotised industrial sectors such as the food industry. Companies:- ABB Robotics. Countries:- BE Z Belgium, EC. DEZ Germany, EC. SEZ Sweden, West Europe. GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industr ial Machinery, NEC. Types:- MKTS Contracts. The Financial Times London Page 7 ============= Transaction # 69 ============================================== Transaction #: 69 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:10:52 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-18195 _AN-EJED5AA3FT 941 005 FT 05 OCT 94 / Industrial robots 'set to soar by one third': Potential for expansion enormous, says report By FRANCES WILLIAMS GENEVA The world's industrial robot population is forecast to soar by more than a thir d over the four years to 1997, according to a report published by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International Federation of Robotics yesterday.* The report, the first in an annual series, says sagging growth in robot investment bottomed out in 1993 and numbers are set to jump from 610,000 at the end of last year to more than 830,000 by the end of 199 7. Annual sales are predicted to rise from about 54,000 units in 1993 to mor e than 103,000 units in 1997. Japan accounts for more than half the world's robot stock, equivalent to 325 robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers . It is followed by Singapore (109), Sweden (73), Italy (70) and Germany (62 ). Use of robots is most widespread in the motor vehicle industry, which acc ounts for between a third and more than one-half of robots in use in countri es such as France, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan and Britain. Tho ugh Japan now has the highest number of robots in the electrical and electro nic industry, it remains the world leader by far in the use of robots for ve hicle manufacture. In the transport equipment sector, which includes motor v ehicles, Japan has 1,000 robots for every 10,000 workers, compared with 167 in Sweden, 110 in France and 63 in Britain. In most countries, especially th ose with big motor vehicle industries, robots are used most frequently for w elding. But in some countries machining is the most common application. In J apan 40 per cent of the robot stock is used for assembly, reflecting the lar ge-scale use of robots in the electronic sector. The potential for expansion of robotics is enormous. Numbers would explode if other industrialised coun tries were to reach Japan's robot densities and if industry in general were to reach only half the robot density of the motor vehicle sector. If all ind ustries in France and Britain had half as many robots as the motor industry in these countries, the robot stock would more than double. If it reached ha lf the density of the Japanese motor vehicle industry, it would increase mor e than 20-fold. *World Industrial Robots 1994: Statistics 1983-93 and foreca sts to 1997. Sales No. GV. E94.0.24, UN Sales section, Palais des Nations, C H-1211 Geneva 10, Dollars 120. Countries:- CHZ Switz erland, West Europe. Industries:- P3569 General Industr ial Machinery, NEC. P3548 Welding Apparatus. Types:- MKTS Market shares. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financia l Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 70 ============================================== Transaction #: 70 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:12:17 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 71 ============================================== Transaction #: 71 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:13:45 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 72 ============================================== Transaction #: 72 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:13:55 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 73 ============================================== Transaction #: 73 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:16:05 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 74 ============================================== Transaction #: 74 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:16:15 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 75 ============================================== Transaction #: 75 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:18:00 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 76 ============================================== Transaction #: 76 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:18:08 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 77 ============================================== Transaction #: 77 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:20:24 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 78 ============================================== Transaction #: 78 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:20:30 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 284 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 79 ============================================== Transaction #: 79 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:20:59 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-5669 _AN-EFCDVAC3FT 9406 03 FT 03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load BY MAX GLASKIN A robot fork lift truck t hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory floor could extend autom ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being tested maps its surroundings continuously and plots its routes. 'There is no system in the world that lo ads and unloads conventional trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe rts, director of Guidance Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four years ago that relied on mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las ers but now we don't need them.' Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p ark them accurately enough for a fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c opes with such variables and also detects changes in its surroundings - for instance, when a pallet is in its path. A central computer communicates the tasks by radio to the robot, which is otherwise autonomous. The robot uses a variety of sensors to detect its own location and the trailer. A laser syst em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning, ultrasound is accurate for between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is interpreted quickly by an off-th e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor cuts in when data of a higher res olution is needed - to cope with an odd-shaped load, for example. The robot analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force sensor and torq ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the sideways movement of the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against the trailer wall. 'A f ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative eas e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to be there later this year,' says Roberts. However, time is not the only cost fa ctor as robots are not so prone to accidental damage to loads. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. The Financial Times Londo n Page 14 ============= Transaction # 80 ============================================== Transaction #: 80 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:21:43 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-5669 _AN-EFCDVAC3FT 9406 03 FT 03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load BY MAX GLASKIN A robot fork lift truck t hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory floor could extend autom ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being tested maps its surroundings continuously and plots its routes. 'There is no system in the world that lo ads and unloads conventional trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe rts, director of Guidance Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four years ago that relied on mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las ers but now we don't need them.' Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p ark them accurately enough for a fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c opes with such variables and also detects changes in its surroundings - for instance, when a pallet is in its path. A central computer communicates the tasks by radio to the robot, which is otherwise autonomous. The robot uses a variety of sensors to detect its own location and the trailer. A laser syst em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning, ultrasound is accurate for between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is interpreted quickly by an off-th e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor cuts in when data of a higher res olution is needed - to cope with an odd-shaped load, for example. The robot analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force sensor and torq ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the sideways movement of the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against the trailer wall. 'A f ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative eas e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to be there later this year,' says Roberts. However, time is not the only cost fa ctor as robots are not so prone to accidental damage to loads. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. The Financial Times Londo n Page 14 ============= Transaction # 81 ============================================== Transaction #: 81 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:21:49 Selec. Rec. #: 14 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-15546 _AN-EANDNADMFT 940 114 FT 14 JAN 94 / Technology (Worth Watching): Robots g et their marching orders By ANDREW FISHER Robots are on the march. In the US, Frost & Sullivan Market Intellige nce forecasts that the robot market will double from Dollars 592m (Pounds 40 0m) in 1992 to Dollars 1.2bn by 1999. Pushing this expansion of nearly 11 pe r cent compound growth a year will be competitive pressures for greater prod uctivity and quality at lower cost. Robots will be used increasingly to repl ace workers in hazardous environments, partly in reaction to soaring medical compensation costs, and in complex automation systems. Until now, the US ha s lagged behind Europe and Japan (the world's largest buyer of robots) in th is market. Frost & Sullivan: US, 415 961 9000 UK, 71 730 3438. Countries:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. Types:- MKTS Market shares. The Financial Times Londo n Page 18 ============= Transaction # 82 ============================================== Transaction #: 82 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:22:04 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-11363 _AN-CJ0BMAC4FT 921 027 FT 27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie, 63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company wi th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design. Under his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of Engin eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused worl dwide interest. ***** Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d irector with Mecca Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM S in the UK in succession to Richard Hargrave. ***** Clive Ainsworth, former ly commercial director of Frontline, has been appointed md of Databit CCSL, a SIEMENS company. ***** Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq uare D, has been appointed divisional director of drives & standard products group of Siemens in the UK. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 83 ============================================== Transaction #: 83 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:22:36 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-11363 _AN-CJ0BMAC4FT 921 027 FT 27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie, 63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company wi th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design. Under his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of Engin eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused worl dwide interest. ***** Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d irector with Mecca Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM S in the UK in succession to Richard Hargrave. ***** Clive Ainsworth, former ly commercial director of Frontline, has been appointed md of Databit CCSL, a SIEMENS company. ***** Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq uare D, has been appointed divisional director of drives & standard products group of Siemens in the UK. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 84 ============================================== Transaction #: 84 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:22:44 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-13625 _AN-EAYDAACEFT 940 125 FT 25 JAN 94 / Technology: Robots ration costs By ANNA KOCHAN A new robot installation for packing military rations is helping the French army cut costs and could even earn it some money. The FFr60m (Pounds 6.8m) facility is automated and can respond quickly to sharp increases in demand at times of crisis. This co uld make it attractive to other armies and aid organisations, says Colonel H ugues Keller, head of the facility at Angers, south-west France. With an out put of 24 rations per minute, the plant easily satisfies the army's regular annual requirement for 2m rations and could produce two or three times as mu ch. Developed as part of the army's cost-cutting programme, the facility con centrates the production of military rations on one site. Before, there were two. Also, says Keller, 'we have seized the opportunity and installed state -of-the-art technology which will satisfy the needs not only of today's army but also that of the next century'. The robots fill cardboard cartons with the 18 constituents of a soldier's daily food allowance. The 14 possible men us include tinned cooked meals, chocolate bars, chewing gum, packet soup, wa ter purification tablets, dry crackers and paper tissues. Each package must be put in the right position in the box so it can be closed, sealed and cove red in plastic film, ready to be packed for shipment. At the centre of the s ystem is a line of nine small robots from Californian manufacturer Adept, ea ch responsible for loading two different components into the cartons from a conveyor. The larger, more robust items such as the tins are put into the ra tion carton first. These are removed from their boxes and fed directly to th e Adept line, one layer at a time, by three large robots from ABB Robotique France, part of the Swiss-Swedish group. The smaller items are then fed to t he Adept robots. Countries:- FRZ France, EC. < XX> Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P356 5 Packaging Machinery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times

London Page 12 ============= Transaction # 85 ============================================== Transaction #: 85 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:08 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-769 _AN-DF0AKAD0FT 93062 6 FT 26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th e operating theatre By CLIVE COOKSON YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai n tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical r evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over t he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses in struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be possi ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away, using a c ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality. The most striking sign of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting to welcome robotic assi stants into their operating theatres. Within the past few months, robots hav e helped to carry out hip replacements in California, prostate operations in London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later this year, gall bladder removal, hernia repair and a variety of other abdominal operations will be added to the list of robotic accomplishments. Despite this, even the most en thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be several years before they would c onsider leaving a robot to operate on its own. The late Hap Paul, chief inve ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We have to move very slowly and ca refully because one false move by a surgical robot - and this whole technolo gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the world's largest and best-finan ced project in medical robotics. Since November, 10 patients at Sutter gener al hospital in Sacramento have had hip replacements with the aid of Robodoc, a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve the cavity for an implant in the thi gh bone. Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical Systems, the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from IBM, is forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Adm inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in th ree US hospitals. Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the skilled hands of a human specialist? The most important reason is that an el ectronic arm is capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b est-trained surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat ients will be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot her receiving conventional hip replacements. Surgical robots promise more th an improvements in existing procedures, says Patrick Finlay, managing direct or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK medical robotics company based at B eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced collateral damage and greater precisio n of the robot will make it possible to do operations that would otherwise b e too risky to contemplate. For example, a tumour very close to the optic ne rve can be tackled without making the patient blind.' Several different type s of surgical robot are under development around the world. Robodoc is an 'a ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue. 'Orthopaedic work is an attrac tive application because the robot is working on hard tissue that doesn't mo ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an engineer specialising in medical robotics at Imperial College, London. Most operations, however, involve cutt ing soft tissues - a task that is more delicate than carving bone. So far, o nly 'passive' robots have been used for this type of surgery. They may move instruments inside the patient, under the surgeon's direction, but they do n ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam. An example is Laparobot, which Armstro ng Projects is developing with Mark Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic . Laparobot will give someone carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of 'walking around' inside the patient's body, using tele-presence techniques. A keyhole surgeon views the operating site with a miniature video camera at the end of a thin optical tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h ole (typically, in the tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope, projects the scene on to a TV screen above the patient. Normally, an assist ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the surgeon needs a differe nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of the surgeon's head and moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a foot button and moves h is head to the left, the robot will change the view inside the patient's bod y. For this year's initial trials at the London Clinic, Laparobot will work with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage will be for the surgeon to wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the impression of being immers ed in the operating environment. As he looks around, the scene will change a s though he were actually inside the abdominal cavity. Further in the future lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger movements to the control of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot will make the surgery more efficient - less stressful for the surgeon, faster and more accurate, and wi th less risk of damage to the patient,' says Ornstein. Armstrong is also wor king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National Hospital for Neurolog y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain surgery. By the end of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an 'image-guided robot' that wi ll help the surgeon position his instruments at the correct point in the bra in to perform the operation. The next stage will be for Neurobot itself to i nsert the instruments. A surgical robot is given as much prior information a s possible about relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o r MRI scan. Its computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. Although the surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o n the computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp ected events. Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's head. If it detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro mpt the surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak ing the new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until the surgeon has signalled his approval. Finlay says a good indicator of prog ress in surgical robotics will be the increasing amount of freedom given to the robot. 'Although the surgeon will never cease to participate, it is real istic to envisage a situation similar to the relationship between an airline r captain and his autopilot, in which the human provides a supervisory and m onitoring role and is available to take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa ys. The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo n uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of m iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot, althoug h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in case the system crashed. Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe ty. Yet, as Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo ts operating on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor k in metal cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa ctory robots going out of control shows the need for such rules). 'There are two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable to start ou t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level software system t o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure. But, in my view, t hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the robot from the bas ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every level.' That means givin g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with duplicated softwar e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond pre-defined limits. A nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising surgeon's hand to hit the stop button in time to avoid damage if all the safety systems fail. Demonstr ating safety is not enough, though. Growing concerns about the financial cos ts of medical care are forcing both public health authorities and private ho spitals to demand evidence that new technology will deliver benefits that ou tweigh its expense. Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la rge-scale clinical trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica l equipment have been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen t. A report on medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv isory Council on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep tion of pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because it 'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.' Peter Doyl e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical research committ ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that has been introdu ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says the National He alth Service should require all new medical devices to be assessed under con trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured. Miles Irving, pro fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital, says that such a ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face strong consumer p ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been properly evaluated .' Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc . 'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a publi city stunt for them.' Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U niversity, US experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its elf as an indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc e to prove its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and more flashy machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation. The introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi lar competitive pressures in the UK. ISS believes its clinical trial will en able orthopaedic hospitals to justify buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin g 400 hip replacements a year, on the basis that implants from robotic opera tions last longer than those inserted manually and so save money in the long run. But the recent history of medical research and technology, from antibi otics to diagnostic scanners, shows that while each development can be justi fied in isolation as being cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs tantially to the financial burden of health care by creating new demand from patients and adding to the number of elderly people in the population. Two decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a purely ma nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car factory, s urgical robots can only make the process more expensive. Enthusiastic medica l technologists can answer any question except one: how will we pay for it? Companies:- Armstrong Projects. Imperial Chemical Industries. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments. P38 42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies. P8099 Health and Allied Services, N EC. P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Finan cial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 86 ============================================== Transaction #: 86 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:49 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-769 _AN-DF0AKAD0FT 93062 6 FT 26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th e operating theatre By CLIVE COOKSON YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai n tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical r evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over t he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses in struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be possi ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away, using a c ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality. The most striking sign of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting to welcome robotic assi stants into their operating theatres. Within the past few months, robots hav e helped to carry out hip replacements in California, prostate operations in London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later this year, gall bladder removal, hernia repair and a variety of other abdominal operations will be added to the list of robotic accomplishments. Despite this, even the most en thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be several years before they would c onsider leaving a robot to operate on its own. The late Hap Paul, chief inve ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We have to move very slowly and ca refully because one false move by a surgical robot - and this whole technolo gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the world's largest and best-finan ced project in medical robotics. Since November, 10 patients at Sutter gener al hospital in Sacramento have had hip replacements with the aid of Robodoc, a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve the cavity for an implant in the thi gh bone. Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical Systems, the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from IBM, is forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Adm inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in th ree US hospitals. Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the skilled hands of a human specialist? The most important reason is that an el ectronic arm is capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b est-trained surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat ients will be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot her receiving conventional hip replacements. Surgical robots promise more th an improvements in existing procedures, says Patrick Finlay, managing direct or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK medical robotics company based at B eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced collateral damage and greater precisio n of the robot will make it possible to do operations that would otherwise b e too risky to contemplate. For example, a tumour very close to the optic ne rve can be tackled without making the patient blind.' Several different type s of surgical robot are under development around the world. Robodoc is an 'a ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue. 'Orthopaedic work is an attrac tive application because the robot is working on hard tissue that doesn't mo ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an engineer specialising in medical robotics at Imperial College, London. Most operations, however, involve cutt ing soft tissues - a task that is more delicate than carving bone. So far, o nly 'passive' robots have been used for this type of surgery. They may move instruments inside the patient, under the surgeon's direction, but they do n ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam. An example is Laparobot, which Armstro ng Projects is developing with Mark Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic . Laparobot will give someone carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of 'walking around' inside the patient's body, using tele-presence techniques. A keyhole surgeon views the operating site with a miniature video camera at the end of a thin optical tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h ole (typically, in the tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope, projects the scene on to a TV screen above the patient. Normally, an assist ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the surgeon needs a differe nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of the surgeon's head and moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a foot button and moves h is head to the left, the robot will change the view inside the patient's bod y. For this year's initial trials at the London Clinic, Laparobot will work with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage will be for the surgeon to wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the impression of being immers ed in the operating environment. As he looks around, the scene will change a s though he were actually inside the abdominal cavity. Further in the future lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger movements to the control of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot will make the surgery more efficient - less stressful for the surgeon, faster and more accurate, and wi th less risk of damage to the patient,' says Ornstein. Armstrong is also wor king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National Hospital for Neurolog y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain surgery. By the end of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an 'image-guided robot' that wi ll help the surgeon position his instruments at the correct point in the bra in to perform the operation. The next stage will be for Neurobot itself to i nsert the instruments. A surgical robot is given as much prior information a s possible about relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o r MRI scan. Its computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. Although the surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o n the computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp ected events. Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's head. If it detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro mpt the surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak ing the new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until the surgeon has signalled his approval. Finlay says a good indicator of prog ress in surgical robotics will be the increasing amount of freedom given to the robot. 'Although the surgeon will never cease to participate, it is real istic to envisage a situation similar to the relationship between an airline r captain and his autopilot, in which the human provides a supervisory and m onitoring role and is available to take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa ys. The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo n uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of m iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot, althoug h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in case the system crashed. Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe ty. Yet, as Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo ts operating on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor k in metal cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa ctory robots going out of control shows the need for such rules). 'There are two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable to start ou t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level software system t o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure. But, in my view, t hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the robot from the bas ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every level.' That means givin g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with duplicated softwar e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond pre-defined limits. A nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising surgeon's hand to hit the stop button in time to avoid damage if all the safety systems fail. Demonstr ating safety is not enough, though. Growing concerns about the financial cos ts of medical care are forcing both public health authorities and private ho spitals to demand evidence that new technology will deliver benefits that ou tweigh its expense. Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la rge-scale clinical trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica l equipment have been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen t. A report on medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv isory Council on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep tion of pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because it 'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.' Peter Doyl e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical research committ ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that has been introdu ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says the National He alth Service should require all new medical devices to be assessed under con trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured. Miles Irving, pro fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital, says that such a ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face strong consumer p ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been properly evaluated .' Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc . 'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a publi city stunt for them.' Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U niversity, US experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its elf as an indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc e to prove its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and more flashy machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation. The introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi lar competitive pressures in the UK. ISS believes its clinical trial will en able orthopaedic hospitals to justify buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin g 400 hip replacements a year, on the basis that implants from robotic opera tions last longer than those inserted manually and so save money in the long run. But the recent history of medical research and technology, from antibi otics to diagnostic scanners, shows that while each development can be justi fied in isolation as being cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs tantially to the financial burden of health care by creating new demand from patients and adding to the number of elderly people in the population. Two decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a purely ma nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car factory, s urgical robots can only make the process more expensive. Enthusiastic medica l technologists can answer any question except one: how will we pay for it? Companies:- Armstrong Projects. Imperial Chemical Industries. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments. P38 42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies. P8099 Health and Allied Services, N EC. P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Finan cial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 87 ============================================== Transaction #: 87 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 88 ============================================== Transaction #: 88 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 89 ============================================== Transaction #: 89 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 90 ============================================== Transaction #: 90 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 91 ============================================== Transaction #: 91 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 92 ============================================== Transaction #: 92 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-5669 _AN-EFCDVAC3FT 9406 03 FT 03 JUN 94 / Technology: Robot lifts the load BY MAX GLASKIN A robot fork lift truck t hat carries loads between lorry trailer and factory floor could extend autom ation to the loading bay. A prototype now being tested maps its surroundings continuously and plots its routes. 'There is no system in the world that lo ads and unloads conventional trailers fully autonomously,' says Malcolm Robe rts, director of Guidance Control Systems of the UK. 'We built a system four years ago that relied on mirrors in the trailers to reflect positioning las ers but now we don't need them.' Drivers of trailers up to 16m long cannot p ark them accurately enough for a fixed robot loader to work. The GCS robot c opes with such variables and also detects changes in its surroundings - for instance, when a pallet is in its path. A central computer communicates the tasks by radio to the robot, which is otherwise autonomous. The robot uses a variety of sensors to detect its own location and the trailer. A laser syst em scans ahead up to 25m; for local positioning, ultrasound is accurate for between 20cm and 2m. The ultrasound data is interpreted quickly by an off-th e-shelf transputer but an infra-red sensor cuts in when data of a higher res olution is needed - to cope with an odd-shaped load, for example. The robot analyses when it has nudged up close to a load using a force sensor and torq ue measurement on each wheel. More sensors control the sideways movement of the forks so that loads are deposited hard up against the trailer wall. 'A f ork-lift truck driver can unload a trailer in half an hour with relative eas e and our prototype hasn't yet shown it can work so quickly. We expect to be there later this year,' says Roberts. However, time is not the only cost fa ctor as robots are not so prone to accidental damage to loads. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3537 Industrial Trucks and Tractors. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. The Financial Times Londo n Page 14 ============= Transaction # 93 ============================================== Transaction #: 93 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-11363 _AN-CJ0BMAC4FT 921 027 FT 27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie, 63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company wi th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design. Under his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of Engin eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused worl dwide interest. ***** Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d irector with Mecca Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM S in the UK in succession to Richard Hargrave. ***** Clive Ainsworth, former ly commercial director of Frontline, has been appointed md of Databit CCSL, a SIEMENS company. ***** Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq uare D, has been appointed divisional director of drives & standard products group of Siemens in the UK. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 94 ============================================== Transaction #: 94 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:23:50 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-769 _AN-DF0AKAD0FT 93062 6 FT 26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th e operating theatre By CLIVE COOKSON YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai n tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical r evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over t he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses in struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be possi ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away, using a c ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality. The most striking sign of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting to welcome robotic assi stants into their operating theatres. Within the past few months, robots hav e helped to carry out hip replacements in California, prostate operations in London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later this year, gall bladder removal, hernia repair and a variety of other abdominal operations will be added to the list of robotic accomplishments. Despite this, even the most en thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be several years before they would c onsider leaving a robot to operate on its own. The late Hap Paul, chief inve ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We have to move very slowly and ca refully because one false move by a surgical robot - and this whole technolo gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the world's largest and best-finan ced project in medical robotics. Since November, 10 patients at Sutter gener al hospital in Sacramento have had hip replacements with the aid of Robodoc, a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve the cavity for an implant in the thi gh bone. Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical Systems, the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from IBM, is forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Adm inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in th ree US hospitals. Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the skilled hands of a human specialist? The most important reason is that an el ectronic arm is capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b est-trained surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat ients will be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot her receiving conventional hip replacements. Surgical robots promise more th an improvements in existing procedures, says Patrick Finlay, managing direct or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK medical robotics company based at B eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced collateral damage and greater precisio n of the robot will make it possible to do operations that would otherwise b e too risky to contemplate. For example, a tumour very close to the optic ne rve can be tackled without making the patient blind.' Several different type s of surgical robot are under development around the world. Robodoc is an 'a ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue. 'Orthopaedic work is an attrac tive application because the robot is working on hard tissue that doesn't mo ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an engineer specialising in medical robotics at Imperial College, London. Most operations, however, involve cutt ing soft tissues - a task that is more delicate than carving bone. So far, o nly 'passive' robots have been used for this type of surgery. They may move instruments inside the patient, under the surgeon's direction, but they do n ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam. An example is Laparobot, which Armstro ng Projects is developing with Mark Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic . Laparobot will give someone carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of 'walking around' inside the patient's body, using tele-presence techniques. A keyhole surgeon views the operating site with a miniature video camera at the end of a thin optical tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h ole (typically, in the tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope, projects the scene on to a TV screen above the patient. Normally, an assist ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the surgeon needs a differe nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of the surgeon's head and moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a foot button and moves h is head to the left, the robot will change the view inside the patient's bod y. For this year's initial trials at the London Clinic, Laparobot will work with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage will be for the surgeon to wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the impression of being immers ed in the operating environment. As he looks around, the scene will change a s though he were actually inside the abdominal cavity. Further in the future lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger movements to the control of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot will make the surgery more efficient - less stressful for the surgeon, faster and more accurate, and wi th less risk of damage to the patient,' says Ornstein. Armstrong is also wor king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National Hospital for Neurolog y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain surgery. By the end of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an 'image-guided robot' that wi ll help the surgeon position his instruments at the correct point in the bra in to perform the operation. The next stage will be for Neurobot itself to i nsert the instruments. A surgical robot is given as much prior information a s possible about relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o r MRI scan. Its computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. Although the surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o n the computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp ected events. Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's head. If it detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro mpt the surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak ing the new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until the surgeon has signalled his approval. Finlay says a good indicator of prog ress in surgical robotics will be the increasing amount of freedom given to the robot. 'Although the surgeon will never cease to participate, it is real istic to envisage a situation similar to the relationship between an airline r captain and his autopilot, in which the human provides a supervisory and m onitoring role and is available to take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa ys. The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo n uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of m iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot, althoug h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in case the system crashed. Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe ty. Yet, as Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo ts operating on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor k in metal cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa ctory robots going out of control shows the need for such rules). 'There are two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable to start ou t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level software system t o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure. But, in my view, t hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the robot from the bas ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every level.' That means givin g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with duplicated softwar e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond pre-defined limits. A nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising surgeon's hand to hit the stop button in time to avoid damage if all the safety systems fail. Demonstr ating safety is not enough, though. Growing concerns about the financial cos ts of medical care are forcing both public health authorities and private ho spitals to demand evidence that new technology will deliver benefits that ou tweigh its expense. Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la rge-scale clinical trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica l equipment have been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen t. A report on medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv isory Council on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep tion of pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because it 'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.' Peter Doyl e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical research committ ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that has been introdu ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says the National He alth Service should require all new medical devices to be assessed under con trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured. Miles Irving, pro fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital, says that such a ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face strong consumer p ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been properly evaluated .' Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc . 'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a publi city stunt for them.' Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U niversity, US experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its elf as an indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc e to prove its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and more flashy machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation. The introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi lar competitive pressures in the UK. ISS believes its clinical trial will en able orthopaedic hospitals to justify buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin g 400 hip replacements a year, on the basis that implants from robotic opera tions last longer than those inserted manually and so save money in the long run. But the recent history of medical research and technology, from antibi otics to diagnostic scanners, shows that while each development can be justi fied in isolation as being cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs tantially to the financial burden of health care by creating new demand from patients and adding to the number of elderly people in the population. Two decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a purely ma nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car factory, s urgical robots can only make the process more expensive. Enthusiastic medica l technologists can answer any question except one: how will we pay for it? Companies:- Armstrong Projects. Imperial Chemical Industries. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments. P38 42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies. P8099 Health and Allied Services, N EC. P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Finan cial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 95 ============================================== Transaction #: 95 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:24:14 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 284 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 96 ============================================== Transaction #: 96 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:24:24 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-135 _AN-BENBQAC0FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6 ): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce By LORI VALIGRA TOKYO IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa cturer replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se t up full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from g etting lonely. The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there are a few showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer' s factory near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact ories are realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f ocus their research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t he ever increasing number of machines working by their side. In past years m anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving machines to raise production. They focused on maximising the use of people, money, time and ma terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the complex machinery b eginning to surround them. 'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin es, so the man-machine interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats uyama, a manager at Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo. 'Japan ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production has s hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,' he sa ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery to be more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example, weldi ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as fuzzy l ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as finding an operational failure, through inferences, as humans do. The escalating skille d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth rate and a more afflue nt and highly educated society, makes robots an important component of facto ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some companies. Strong competition i n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of investment in labour- saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting tools, processing mach ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force is expected to be 0.8 per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall off by half to 0.4 per cent until 2000, according to Japanese government statistics. During that t ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual economic growth rate. 'T o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says Mr Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association (Jir a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the switch from a manufacturing to a service economy. Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer blue-collar workers in manufacturing b y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo ung people are a different breed of worker from those who laboured long hour s for little pay to build Japan's industrial miracle. They want to avoid so- called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai' (dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard) . 'Older men were very patient and had the Bushido (warrior) morale, but it is hard to find these people today,' says Mr Matsuyama. Replacing them with machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces programmable controlle rs and other electronics products, sees the improvements that can be made in factory automation as almost limitless and including diagnosing system fail ures and other management tasks. The improvements span a broad factory autom ation market valued at almost Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a product from design through production and inspection. The important compon ents of automating a factory are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of the market, as well as computer-aided design and manufacturing software and equipment, industrial robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse s, computers and automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou t a plant site. Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod uction components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin e tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power . Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16 per cent held by Germany. Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki, for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste r, in the UK which produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a ccording to industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing robot market is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst allations worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5 per cent. Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni cs and other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn ology, product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese manuf acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is litt le competition from imports. The electronics industry is the biggest user of automation technology. At its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To kyo, Toshiba uses its own laptop computers for design, development and assem bly of new Toshiba laptops. The laptops are used to compute how easily a new computer model can be assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget her one notebook-size Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important, because the company is making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s pan of each new product is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition . 'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is al ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga, who heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome. How ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a Jap anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it increasingly difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba replicates about 70 per cent of design work from current models in new ones. While it took Toshi ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops from scratch, it took only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook. Though its factory is about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the company often comment about the number of people still present on the manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s ays that with the fast-paced product life cycles, humans are needed. 'There are problems with automated systems. They can't catch up with new technology , so humans are acting as universal super robots,' he adds. Fuzzy logic may help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic, software that can help make a decision from unclear information, will help increase the versat ility of robots in the future by affording better control of their movements . Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed a test robot that can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd). In a New Year's address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president, identified fuzzy logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994, more than 20 pe r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of fuzzy logic. Accord ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As part of a computer-in tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in production and in mana ging the company. 'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person where computers are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge neration plant's circulation control system to clean water and to make decis ions. Perhaps the Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide d with these systems,' he says. Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots and other components, spell another technological advantage for Japan in th e future: being able to change small-scale production quickly, so that multi ple products can be produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya ma predicts Japanese manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale production, which is a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility. Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense that market information should be more effectively connected with the produc tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible production without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in Osaka. The com pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which more c losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they are r efined. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 97 ============================================== Transaction #: 97 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:25:56 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-8032 _AN-CEOAZAA9FT 9205 15 FT 15 MAY 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Helping h and at the dinner table By ANDREW BAXTER < TEXT> Help is at hand for many thousands of disabled people who are unable t o feed themselves, writes Andrew Baxter. Handy 1, designed by Mike Topping, development manager at the University of Keele's rehabilitation robotics pro ject, enables severely disabled people to eat unaided. The product, a roboti c arm with contoured spoon attached to an electronic control unit on an adju stable stand, allows users to eat at their own pace. A stalk switch mounted on a flexible gooseneck can be operated by hand or head movements, giving th e user control. Earlier this month, Handy 1 won the Pounds 7,000 Institution of Electrical Engineers Prize for Helping Disabled People. University of Ke ele, Case Unit: UK, 0782 712774. The Financial Times London Page 14 ============= Transaction # 98 ============================================== Transaction #: 98 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:26:32 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-8032 _AN-CEOAZAA9FT 9205 15 FT 15 MAY 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Helping h and at the dinner table By ANDREW BAXTER < TEXT> Help is at hand for many thousands of disabled people who are unable t o feed themselves, writes Andrew Baxter. Handy 1, designed by Mike Topping, development manager at the University of Keele's rehabilitation robotics pro ject, enables severely disabled people to eat unaided. The product, a roboti c arm with contoured spoon attached to an electronic control unit on an adju stable stand, allows users to eat at their own pace. A stalk switch mounted on a flexible gooseneck can be operated by hand or head movements, giving th e user control. Earlier this month, Handy 1 won the Pounds 7,000 Institution of Electrical Engineers Prize for Helping Disabled People. University of Ke ele, Case Unit: UK, 0782 712774. The Financial Times London Page 14 ============= Transaction # 99 ============================================== Transaction #: 99 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:26:43 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8893 _AN-CBNB3AE8FT 9202 14 FT 14 FEB 92 / Technology: Machine replaces milkmaid By STEVEN SONSINO For the last thre e years Professor Jim Hewit's team in the Department of Mechanical Engineeri ng at the Loughborough University of Technology has been looking at cows' ud ders with more than a passing interest. Talking to colleagues at the Agricul tural and Food Research Council they discovered that if cows could be milked as often as the cows themselves wanted, milk production would increase. The stress on the cows of being rounded up for milking would also be reduced, w hich could improve milk quality. And farmers would need less equipment, as m ilking would be spread throughout the day, not compressed into the tradition al early and late shifts. The Loughborough team has developed a robotic mach ine to milk the cows automatically. The system incorporates a thermal imagin g system attached to a contraption of booms and telescopic tubing. The solut ion appeared by accident. Hewit discovered a thermal imaging system in the l ab from a previous project. Wondering whether this might distinguish cold te ats from hot udders, the team tested it on cows on an Oxfordshire farm. Not only did it pick out the teats on the cow when the animal entered the milkin g stall, without the need for human guidance, it also picked out a teat dise ased with mastitis, which appeared black to the imaging system. The cow's ow ner was shocked, but grateful, and so were the Loughborough engineers: in a surprise spin-off the robot had become a dual milking and diagnostic imaging system. Work will begin in May on the remaining hurdle: making the imaging systems rugged enough and cheap enough for life on the farm. At present an e ffective imaging system costs around Pounds 30,000, says Hewit, and he is wo rried that a roaring trade in robot rustling might develop. Eventually he be lieves unattended milking stalls will appear on the farm. Cows will wander i n as they please or be called in by the tape-recorded lowings of suckling ca lves. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 100 ============================================== Transaction #: 100 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:26:57 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-8893 _AN-CBNB3AE8FT 9202 14 FT 14 FEB 92 / Technology: Machine replaces milkmaid By STEVEN SONSINO For the last thre e years Professor Jim Hewit's team in the Department of Mechanical Engineeri ng at the Loughborough University of Technology has been looking at cows' ud ders with more than a passing interest. Talking to colleagues at the Agricul tural and Food Research Council they discovered that if cows could be milked as often as the cows themselves wanted, milk production would increase. The stress on the cows of being rounded up for milking would also be reduced, w hich could improve milk quality. And farmers would need less equipment, as m ilking would be spread throughout the day, not compressed into the tradition al early and late shifts. The Loughborough team has developed a robotic mach ine to milk the cows automatically. The system incorporates a thermal imagin g system attached to a contraption of booms and telescopic tubing. The solut ion appeared by accident. Hewit discovered a thermal imaging system in the l ab from a previous project. Wondering whether this might distinguish cold te ats from hot udders, the team tested it on cows on an Oxfordshire farm. Not only did it pick out the teats on the cow when the animal entered the milkin g stall, without the need for human guidance, it also picked out a teat dise ased with mastitis, which appeared black to the imaging system. The cow's ow ner was shocked, but grateful, and so were the Loughborough engineers: in a surprise spin-off the robot had become a dual milking and diagnostic imaging system. Work will begin in May on the remaining hurdle: making the imaging systems rugged enough and cheap enough for life on the farm. At present an e ffective imaging system costs around Pounds 30,000, says Hewit, and he is wo rried that a roaring trade in robot rustling might develop. Eventually he be lieves unattended milking stalls will appear on the farm. Cows will wander i n as they please or be called in by the tape-recorded lowings of suckling ca lves. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 101 ============================================== Transaction #: 101 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:27:05 Selec. Rec. #: 30 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-3682 _AN-CCMBUABBFT 9203 13 FT 13 MAR 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Robotic e yes see the light 'ROBOTIC eyes' can now be made from a p hotosensitive protein called bacteriorhodopsin (BR) found in salt-saturated water such as the Dead Sea. A team from Fuji Photo Film in Japan has develop ed a retina-like light sensor which rivals the most sophisticated silicon de vices. It mimics some of the functions of the eye in a simpler, less costly and more compact package. The sensor is constructed by wedging a thin film o f the protein between two oxide electrodes in an electrically conductive gel . When light hits the sensor the BR molecules react by changing shape, gener ating a quick electric pulse that travels through the electrode. But if the light remains constant the protein returns to its original shape. No charge is generated until the light level changes again. Potential applications inc lude recognition systems for security purposes and factory automation. Fuji Photo Film: Japan, 04 6573 7070. The Financial Times London Page 12 ============= Transaction # 102 ============================================== Transaction #: 102 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:27:20 Selec. Rec. #: 31 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-12541 _AN-DA1B9AEAFT 930 128 FT 28 JAN 93 / JCB intent on putting the skids under its rivals: The engineering group's hope for its new product By ANDREW BAXTER IN AN industry which loves gossi ping about rivals' product plans, it was an open secret that JC Bamford Exca vators (JCB), the largest UK-owned earthmoving equipment maker, was about to enter a new product sector. The company, whose initials are a generic name for backhoe loaders - the big yellow machines with a loader bucket at the fr ont and a small excavator in the rear - this week made its long-awaited entr y into the fast-growing European market for skid-steer loaders. The launch o f the innovatively-designed JCB Robot is an important step for Staffordshire -based JCB, one of the UK's most successful privately-held engineering group s. It is also a rare piece of good news in an industry which has yet to see any hard evidence of the recession lifting in the UK, and may face worsening conditions on the Continent. JCB said recently it was producing constructio n equipment at about one third of the rate of four years ago, when the UK ma rket was booming. Skid-steer loaders are compact machines which can be used for anything from light civil engineering work to clearing out chicken coops . Their versatility, with the trend towards use of smaller machines, such as mini-excavators, in jobs where picks and shovels would have been used until recently, makes them relatively recession-proof. According to Mr David Phil lips of the London-based Corporate Intelligence Group, sales in Europe have surged from 3,600 units in 1985 to about 10,000 last year and could rise to between 12,000 and 14,000 in five years. JCB is known to have been looking a t the skid-steer market for a decade. Launching a new volume product in a re latively fast-growing sector, says Mr Phillips, is a much more realistic way for JCB to build sales than to attempt a 5 per cent increase in backhoe loa ders, where it is European leader with a 40 per cent market share. JCB has s pent three years and Pounds 4m developing the Robot, which will enter a mark et dominated by the Melroe Bobcat, produced by Clark Equipment of the US. JC B has set itself characteristically tough targets for the Robot. Mr John Bra dley, JCB's marketing director, says the company aims to become the second-b iggest supplier in the European skid-steer market in about three years, givi ng it about 10 per cent of the market. That could involve taking market shar e from Melroe, which has about 50 per cent of the market, and smaller suppli ers such as Gehl of Germany and FAI of Italy. Mr Phillips says the entry of another internationally-known company alongside Melroe may expand the market . Additionally, JCB is pinning its hopes on winning customers by redrawing t he conventional skid-steer design. The Robot's single boom allows the operat or access through a side door, cutting out the risk of injury when clamberin g over or under the bucket to reach the driving seat. Companies :- JC Bamford Excavators. Countries:- GBZ Un ited Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P353 Construction and R elated Machinery. Types:- TECH Products. CMMT Com ment and Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 103 ============================================== Transaction #: 103 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:27:39 Selec. Rec. #: 31 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-12541 _AN-DA1B9AEAFT 930 128 FT 28 JAN 93 / JCB intent on putting the skids under its rivals: The engineering group's hope for its new product By ANDREW BAXTER IN AN industry which loves gossi ping about rivals' product plans, it was an open secret that JC Bamford Exca vators (JCB), the largest UK-owned earthmoving equipment maker, was about to enter a new product sector. The company, whose initials are a generic name for backhoe loaders - the big yellow machines with a loader bucket at the fr ont and a small excavator in the rear - this week made its long-awaited entr y into the fast-growing European market for skid-steer loaders. The launch o f the innovatively-designed JCB Robot is an important step for Staffordshire -based JCB, one of the UK's most successful privately-held engineering group s. It is also a rare piece of good news in an industry which has yet to see any hard evidence of the recession lifting in the UK, and may face worsening conditions on the Continent. JCB said recently it was producing constructio n equipment at about one third of the rate of four years ago, when the UK ma rket was booming. Skid-steer loaders are compact machines which can be used for anything from light civil engineering work to clearing out chicken coops . Their versatility, with the trend towards use of smaller machines, such as mini-excavators, in jobs where picks and shovels would have been used until recently, makes them relatively recession-proof. According to Mr David Phil lips of the London-based Corporate Intelligence Group, sales in Europe have surged from 3,600 units in 1985 to about 10,000 last year and could rise to between 12,000 and 14,000 in five years. JCB is known to have been looking a t the skid-steer market for a decade. Launching a new volume product in a re latively fast-growing sector, says Mr Phillips, is a much more realistic way for JCB to build sales than to attempt a 5 per cent increase in backhoe loa ders, where it is European leader with a 40 per cent market share. JCB has s pent three years and Pounds 4m developing the Robot, which will enter a mark et dominated by the Melroe Bobcat, produced by Clark Equipment of the US. JC B has set itself characteristically tough targets for the Robot. Mr John Bra dley, JCB's marketing director, says the company aims to become the second-b iggest supplier in the European skid-steer market in about three years, givi ng it about 10 per cent of the market. That could involve taking market shar e from Melroe, which has about 50 per cent of the market, and smaller suppli ers such as Gehl of Germany and FAI of Italy. Mr Phillips says the entry of another internationally-known company alongside Melroe may expand the market . Additionally, JCB is pinning its hopes on winning customers by redrawing t he conventional skid-steer design. The Robot's single boom allows the operat or access through a side door, cutting out the risk of injury when clamberin g over or under the bucket to reach the driving seat. Companies :- JC Bamford Excavators. Countries:- GBZ Un ited Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P353 Construction and R elated Machinery. Types:- TECH Products. CMMT Com ment and Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 104 ============================================== Transaction #: 104 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:28:33 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 105 ============================================== Transaction #: 105 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:29:03 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar exports})" ============= Transaction # 106 ============================================== Transaction #: 106 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:29:07 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 16769 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 107 ============================================== Transaction #: 107 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 13:29:14 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 108 ============================================== Transaction #: 108 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:29:24 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 109 ============================================== Transaction #: 109 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:30:10 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 110 ============================================== Transaction #: 110 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:32:49 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-3008 _AN-EIPC9ABKFT 9409 16 FT 16 SEP 94 / World Trade News: UK in investment acc ord with Cuba By PASCAL FLETCHER HAVANA Britain has signalled strong official encoura gement for UK businesses to invest in Cuba with an investment promotion and protection agreement. The agreement was initialled on Wednesday by Britain's trade and technology minister, Mr Ian Taylor. Mr Taylor yesterday referred to Cuba as 'a very exciting market' at the end of a three-day visit, the fir st by a British minister to the island in almost 20 years. 'Clearly, the pot ential here is very considerable,' Mr Taylor said. 'The agreement will give confidence that Cuba is a market with which British businesses can deal.' He had led a British business delegation in talks on investment opportunities in air transport, construction, Cuba's sugar sector and insurance. Mr Taylor , clearly distancing British government policy from the US trade and financi al embargo against the island, underlined the fact that Britain had never cu t its trade links with Cuba. British exports for the first half of this year were up 180 per cent over last year. The 1993 export total was Pounds 14m, which was 50 per cent down from 1992. But he said many British companies had found it difficult to do business in the past because of Cuba's centrally-m anaged and highly regulated state economy. Cuba was moving to reform its eco nomy to adapt to world trading conditions after the collapse of the Soviet U nion, its main trading partner. 'I made it clear that British companies woul d find dealing with Cuba easier the further the reform process goes,' said M r Taylor, who had talks with President Fidel Castro. He said that while Cuba n reforms were at an early stage, he was assured by Mr Castro they would con tinue. He noted that British companies were already operating in Cuba in oil exploration and oil services, agrochemicals, lubricants, soap and detergent manufacture, citrus, financial services and the sugar industry. It can only get better, Page 16 Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P9611 Admin istration of General Economic Programs. Types:- NEWS G eneral News. The Financial Times London Page 6 ============= Transaction # 111 ============================================== Transaction #: 111 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:36:29 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 16769 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 112 ============================================== Transaction #: 112 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 13:37:22 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba sugar imports})" ============= Transaction # 113 ============================================== Transaction #: 113 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:37:28 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 32430 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 114 ============================================== Transaction #: 114 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:39:36 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 32430 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 115 ============================================== Transaction #: 115 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:40:35 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 116 ============================================== Transaction #: 116 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:48:30 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 117 ============================================== Transaction #: 117 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 13:48:32 Selec. 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