Log Date 08_26_99_09:34:29 ============= Transaction # 1 ============================================== Transaction #: 1 Transaction Code: 0 (New Host Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:42:44 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 2 ============================================== Transaction #: 2 Transaction Code: 35 (New Host Connected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 09:42:45 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 3 ============================================== Transaction #: 3 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:44:06 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma})" ============= Transaction # 4 ============================================== Transaction #: 4 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 09:44:09 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 5 ============================================== Transaction #: 5 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 09:45:26 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 6 ============================================== Transaction #: 6 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 09:46:41 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 7 ============================================== Transaction #: 7 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:47:12 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 8 ============================================== Transaction #: 8 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:48:48 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 9 ============================================== Transaction #: 9 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:49:05 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 10 ============================================== Transaction #: 10 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:50:34 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma ventolin})" ============= Transaction # 11 ============================================== Transaction #: 11 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:50:36 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 8390 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 12 ============================================== Transaction #: 12 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:51:20 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 8 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {drugs for the treatment of asthma ventolin}) and (title {gl axo})" ============= Transaction # 13 ============================================== Transaction #: 13 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:51:23 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 141 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 14 ============================================== Transaction #: 14 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:51:36 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-10709 _AN-EBHC6AE5FT 940 208 FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi ns US approval By DANIEL GREEN Glax o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products of th e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent. The US Food and Drug Adminis tration had been expected to approve the drug in December and Glaxo shares f ell when this did not happen. After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share s rose 15p to end the day with a net fall of 2p at 664p. The drug is importa nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the long standing big sel ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments are second in importanc e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic portfolio, accounting for almos t one quarter of total sales. The older drug has now lost much of its patent protection and the company is relying on Serevent to underpin its position in the market. The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually reach sales of Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In the last full year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort h Pounds 484m. The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove rnment healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis t of drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the ruling. Companies:- Glaxo Holdings. Countr ies:- USZ United States of America. Industries:- P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH P roducts & Product use. The Financial Times London P age 24 ============= Transaction # 15 ============================================== Transaction #: 15 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:51:53 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1 ============= Transaction # 16 ============================================== Transaction #: 16 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:52:29 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 206926 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 17 ============================================== Transaction #: 17 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:53:03 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 18 ============================================== Transaction #: 18 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:54:11 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 8 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba, sugar, exports, imports}) and (topic {cuba, sugar, ex ports, imports})" ============= Transaction # 19 ============================================== Transaction #: 19 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:54:20 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 19 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 20 ============================================== Transaction #: 20 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:55:13 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba, sugar, exports}) and (topic {cuba, sugar, exports})" ============= Transaction # 21 ============================================== Transaction #: 21 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:55:18 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 40 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 22 ============================================== Transaction #: 22 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:56:01 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba, sugar, imports}) and (topic {cuba, sugar,imports})" ============= Transaction # 23 ============================================== Transaction #: 23 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:56:08 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 36 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 24 ============================================== Transaction #: 24 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:57:04 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-5430 _AN-ELDARADKFT 9412 03 FT 03 DEC 94 / Behind Cuban smiles: When the Soviet U nion collapsed, Cuba's 'prosperity' vanished overnight. Nicholas Woodsworth walks the streets of Old Havana and today finds mostly inertia and neglect, decline and breakdown By NICHOLAS WOODSWORTH There is a quiet anger about Mercedes, a smouldering resentment wh ich on evenings with me she keeps damped down only with rum and cigarettes. It is the hospital wards she works in, she tells me - the shortage of medici nes and pain-killers, her inability to relieve suffering, the cries and moan s of patients which continue to pursue her long after her shift is over. Now , in the little room I have rented in the house of her friends Luis and Isab el, Mercedes administers her own pain-killer, large gulps of dark, caramel-t asting Paticruzados rum. Two whimsical, carefree sailors dance about the lab el of the bottle. It sits conveniently close, parked on a bedside table betw een a cheaply whirring Russian fan and a battered radio which sprays the hot Havana night with brassy rhythms - salsa, rumba, cha cha cha. After a few g lasses her gloom lifts, her smooth brown face lightens. She flirts and laugh s a little, shakes her shoulders in time to the music, takes on the brightne ss that in a more ordinary time and place would naturally be hers. We plan a day at the beach, a walk along the sea front promenade of the Malecon, ice- cream at La Coppelia in the smart part of town, and Mercedes seems happy. He r anger, though, I know, is still there, profound and indelible. It is not j ust anger over her work, for Fidel Castro's unwavering, catastrophic vision for her country, for Cuba's years of hardship and suffering. It is also dire cted at the outside world, at me. 'You know nothing,' she has already said t o me in a brief moment of unguarded bitterness. 'You tell me things have cha nged all over the world, that Cuba is a dinosaur, that things can only chang e here, too. You tell me democracy is around the corner. But you do not know Cuba.' Tonight, though, Mercedes has no fight in her, no room left for deba te. Like most Cubans, she is sick to death of ideology and the politics of s tate. She saves her energy for the true politics of Cuba - the strategies of day-to-day survival, the salvaging of small satisfactions from moral bankru ptcy and material collapse. She drains her glass, stubs out one of the Ameri can cigarettes she likes me to buy her. 'Toda politica es mentiras,' is all she will say, shaking her head. All politics is lies. She switches off the r adio and stands, swaying a little with music, drink and fatigue. 'Take me da ncing.' We walk out into the streets of Havana Vieja. Decayed and crumbling, Old Havana is an eerie, empty quarter at night. We stumble over rubble and around potholes, under hanging laundry and through tall, broad arcades built by the Spanish against Cuba's fierce tropical sun. Here and there are the r emnants of an imperial finery financed by slaves and sugar: an ornate stone church, a baroque opera house, a pillared convent, a wall of Seville Moorish tiles, and matching pairs of bronze lions along the tree-lined Prado. But m ostly there is inertia and neglect, decline and breakdown. We walk gingerly. There is little lighting - electricity is a precious commodity in Cuba toda y. Neither, in these still streets, is there much traffic - there is little petrol to fuel the hulking pre-revolutionary Buicks and Pontiacs, the tinny post-revolutionary Skodas and Ladas, that lie salt-corroded and rotting on e very corner. Nor is there any of the business, the exchange, the human trans action that is normally the heartbeat of a big city's life. Only occasionall y in the gloom do we pass a small boy raising water to an upper-floor apartm ent with a bucket and pulley, an old man smoking a fragrant cigar on the coo l of a doorstep. Old Havana is jammed with tens of thousands of tenement dwe llers; but with nowhere to go, no money to spend, and nothing to spend it on , they remain indoors, comforted in the blue glow of Cuba's last accessible past-time, the television soap opera. 'Nada . . . nada . . . nada . . . . ' mutters Mercedes as, one after another, we pass the meagre window displays o f government shops that have nothing left to sell. I find them pathetic. Mer cedes has little sense of pathos - but a good deal of contempt - for state e conomic planning that now fails to provide even the bare minimum needed for survival. The defiant gesturing continues, Castro's revolutionary avowals pe rsist. But, as the people of Cuba know to great personal cost, there are no provisions on any known communist chart or model for the plunge of the last four years. Even the name given to the post-Soviet age by the Cuban leadersh ip - the 'Special Period' - indicates its lack of certainty in the progress of the revolution. Well might the leaders lack confidence. Before the collap se of the Soviet Union in 1990, Cuba was consuming Dollars 8bn worth of good s annually, most of it garnered through special trade-and-aid agreements wit h the east bloc. Not only did the Soviet Union, happy with a permanent footh old on the very doorstep of the enemy camp, purchase Cuban sugar at above-wo rld-market prices, it also supplied the Caribbean client-state with subsidis ed oil, food, machinery, medicines, vehicles, military hardware, technical a dvice, and cheap loans. With the fall of the Soviet Union, it all vanished o vernight. The goodwill dried up, the teachers went home, the agreements were cancelled, the ships stopped calling in at Havana harbour. Without foreign exchange, Cuban imports have slowed to a trickle. Without raw materials, Cub an factories have stopped operating. Without fertilisers and pesticides, the Cuban sugar industry is floundering. Not only demanding payment of a Dollar s 30bn Cuban debt, Russia has now rejected as a risky deal even the simplest form of trade - the bartering of oil for sugar. US refusal to do business w ith its revolutionary neighbour remains as firm as ever. Like an air-filled balloon, Cuba's prosperity - such as it was - has suddenly blown up in the f ace of its people, leaving little trace behind. Cuba has stopped spending mo ney that did not belong to it - the value of annual consumption has shrunk f rom the equivalent of Dollars 8bn to Dollars 1bn, with shortage and need eve rywhere. Not long ago a comprehensive social safety net, universal health ca re and high educational standards made Cubans the envy of the third world. T oday they grub about in the wreckage of their economy, no better off than th e African disaster cases they used to assist, and wonder how long the 'Speci al Period' can possibly continue. Two rolls of bread a day, one box of match es a month, one bar of soap a month, two portions of mince-and-soya paste a month, two pairs of underwear a year . . . armed with her government-issue r ation book, such is the level of provision Mercedes now manages to obtain th rough the state. Often not even these meagre undertakings can be met. Merced es has not seen soap in the government shops for three months. 'Mierda de na da,' she whispers, for good measure. At the end of the dark street, on the e dge of Old Havana, we emerge into a rare constellation of lights, the Hotel Plaza. No one, of course, manages to live on the official ration, or on the official economy at all. It is around the foreigner-frequented hotels that a parallel mechanism - a dollar-based economy that pervades all sections of C uban society - can be found in its rawest, most distorted form. For Cubans, life is an unending struggle, a daily series of problems which must be resol ved. There is a catch-all verb they apply to any action helping them overcom e their straitened circumstances - it is, simply, resolver, or find a soluti on. One can, for example, like my hosts Luis and Isabel, resolve the questio n of the spare bedroom by illegally renting it to tourists. Consuelo down th e road from Luis, on the other hand, has found her own resolution in a suppl y of black market chickens that do not officially exist; much to Mercedes' a nd my satisfaction, she runs a paladar, an illicit back-room restaurant. I a m glad to have Mercedes by my side as we walk past the hotel entrance. She i s a sort of protection. For a good deal of 'resolving' in this part of town takes place on the street, and involves separating foreigners from their dol lars. Cubans will go to desperate lengths to get hold of dollars, for withou t them there is no meat, fuel, clothing, pharmaceuticals, electrical goods, household items or much of anything else. Some of the denizens lurking in th e shadows here simply beg. They want soap for their babies, milk powder for their mothers. I spot one who has already asked me for the shirt off my back . These are not professional street hustlers, but students, housewives, fath ers, and there is no artfulness to their approach. It makes their entreaties all the more painful. Others have something to offer - themselves. Prostitu tion is now widespread in Havana, although there is a wide gap between hard core professionals and those casual young women willing to stay the night af ter an evening's entertainment. Part of the problem is that there are many m ore single women in Havana than men; over the years conscription for the Ang olan war, the Mariel boat lift, the haemmorrhage of young men to Miami, has made available young men scarce. A young man with ready money in his pocket is even rarer. On my first visit to the Plaza I was ambushed by two teenage girls in risque attire who steered me straight to the bar. Were they after d aquiris, pina coladas, whisky, I wondered? Far from it. They craved the now- unavailable treats of their childhood. One demanded a glass of milk, the oth er a gooey, chocolate-covered marshmallow. Lounging outside the doors of the Plaza we meet Ramon and Anna, already acquaintances of mine. Like many of H avana's black marketeers, they are part of a well organised system of theft and resale that operates in almost every factory, warehouse, business and sh op in Cuba. Ramon sells PPG-5, the cholesterol-reducing miracle drug, fruit of Fidel's prestige medical research project. Coincidentally, it commands a high street value for its effects on male sexual potency. Anna acts as a str eet lookout for Ramon. Most societies would judge Ramon and Anna's professio n criminal, their behaviour corrupt. But in an official economy as maladjust ed to social needs as Cuba's, definitions of corruption hardly mean much; wh at counts for Cubans is a market-driven alternative that works. From the sid ewalk, Ramon tells me, he makes Dollars 5 to Dollars 10 dollars a day; in a state office or factory he would not make five dollars a month. Such a moral ity is widely accepted. Neither of Mercedes' parents work the street, but bo th steal from the state. Her mother, a cigar roller, smuggles cigars from th e factory where she works. Her father, a petrol-tanker driver, has an agreem ent with the depot foreman for the falsifying of way-bills. It is the only w ay to keep food in the house. Nor is the administration exempt from such beh aviour. Ramon could never ply his trade without the connivance of the police and his local Committee for the Defense of the Revolution, the organisation that regulates Cuban life on a city block-by-block basis. Ramon regularly t urns over a percentage of profits to his CDR chief. In its own interests the regime tolerates a certain level of black marketeering and petty corruption - it relieves pressure on the state to provide. It also relieves Mercedes a nd me of the task of finding an officially licensed taxi. Just outside the g low of the Plaza's lights a wheezing, fly-by-night Moscovitch skulks. We cli mb in and clatter along the Malecon sea front, six lanes of deserted city-ce ntre highway, to the 1830 Club. Through the doors of the dance club lies ano ther world, a brave and shiny new Cuba in which failure might never have exi sted. In a seaside garden of rustling palm trees and well-kept lawns, a crow d sits scattered around an outdoor dance floor. They are well off, wealthy e nough to spend in an evening what most Cubans earn in six months. They are y oung. The men are casual and tanned. They smile a lot. The women are sleek, well made up, alluring. This is not exactly the old elite, the senior milita ry, the party ideologues, the command economy captains who grew up fighting in the mountains with Fidel Castro. These are their children, the technocrat ic class, Cuba's new elite. They work for new joint ventures, in import-expo rt agencies, the tourist industry. They have access to dollars, to the outsi de world, to new ideas. Mercedes and I sip rum daquiris, wander in the garde n, dance to American disco music. There is a Tropicana-style floor show - al l sequins and legs. Then a fashion show - casual opulence and legs again. Mo re drinks, more dancing. Mercedes is entranced. Her eyes sparkle, rove over the clothing, the coloured cocktails, the happy couples. Returning from the dance floor I meet a small-time Swiss businessman, a maverick at the far edg e of emerging markets. His face is flushed with achievement - today through his Cuban partner he has purchased yet another downtown Havana apartment at a rock-bottom price. Cuba will change fast, he assures me. Already the signs are there, in the recently-opened private markets for farmer's produce, in a new European investment fund for Cuba, in rumours of foreign financing for the sugar industry. 'In two or three years all this unpleasantness between Cuba and the US will be patched up,' he beams with anticipation. 'Investment s will come rolling in. Then watch real estate prices rocket]' In the taxi b ack to Ramon and Isabel's I am perturbed. I am unable to make the link betwe en this gasping, exhausted city and the self-assured ease of the 1830 Club. It all seems make-believe, I tell Mercedes. I am still perturbed back in the room where the little table-fan whirs and the radio continues pumping hot L atin music into the night. Where will it end, I ask Mercedes. Surely somethi ng good must lie at the end of such hard times? The sparkle has left her eye s. 'You still don't understand,' she says quietly, reluctantly, shaking her head. 'That was not make-believe. That is the future. 'Do you think because our economy is in ruins the state is in ruins? There is something that count s more in Cuba than economics. It is political power. It is as strong as eve r, as absolute and privileged as ever. 'The men who run this country see the writing on the wall. They know the old times are gone forever. But do you t hink they will surrender their places to some new, local breed, or to Cubans screaming for their jobs from Miami?' She pours herself a last glass of Pat icruzados. 'Yesterday the men at the 1830 Club were good communists. Tomorro w they will be good capitalists. The lies will change, but the liars will be the same.' And what, I ask, will happen to her patients, her neighbours, he r compatriots, the people of Old Havana? Mercedes downs her glass, shivers, and closes her eyes. She is tired, and bitter, and has the chronic victim's calm certainty of the future. 'Nothing,' she replies 'the elite shall remain the elite, with all their power and privilege. The poor of Cuba shall remai n the poor.' She is whispering now, nearly asleep. 'It seems that is the way of the world. They say we are the last state of our kind on earth. But are we not, after all, much the same as everyone else?' Countries:- CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P9611 Adm inistration of General Economic Programs. P9721 International Affairs. P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times Lon don Page I ============= Transaction # 25 ============================================== Transaction #: 25 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:57:37 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba, sugar, exports, imports}) and (topic {cuba, sugar,exp orts, imports})" ============= Transaction # 26 ============================================== Transaction #: 26 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:57:45 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 19 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 27 ============================================== Transaction #: 27 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 09:59:30 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 8 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba, sugar, exports, imports}) and (topic {cuba, sugar,}) and (topic {exports, imports})" ============= Transaction # 28 ============================================== Transaction #: 28 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 09:59:39 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 19 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 29 ============================================== Transaction #: 29 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:03:04 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-5210 _AN-CK0B0AFQFT 9211 27 FT 27 NOV 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Barbadian collapse deepens shadow over Caribbean sugar - The region, faced with high costs and low productivity, relies on guaranteed market access < BYLINE> By CANUTE JAMES THE COLLAPSE of Barbados' sugar industry late last month is the latest indication of the sometimes terminal difficulties which beset Caribbean producers. The region is faced with high production costs and often low productivity, and is unable to survive withou t guaranteed access to markets such as the European Community and the US, an d which pay higher than prevailing world market prices. The problems caused by inefficiency and indebtedness are exacerbated by what many producers see as a threat to current preferential market arrangements. Many are worried by the recent reduction in US import quotas, and are uncertain how they will f are if the North American Free Trade Agreement is implemented and Mexican pr oduction becomes a market factor. In the case of Barbados, the island has be en unable to produce enough even to meet its quota obligations to these guar anteed markets. Efforts are under way to jump-start the industry after the s tate-owned Barbados National Bank, exercising tighter credit control as part of a government austerity programme, and which is owed Dollars 50m by the i ndustry, suspended all further loans. This followed production of 55,000 ton nes from the 1992 harvest, the lowest in 60 years, according to official fig ures. In order to make use of its opportunities on the EC and US markets the island has had to import sugar to meet domestic demand. Ironically, the col lapse of the industry came after indications that it was being put under new management by Booker Tate, a subsidiary of Booker, the UK food and farming group. The company has become an important factor in the region's troubled s ugar industry, and has been called in to help the industries in Guyana, Beli ze and St Kitts-Nevis, and to run two of Jamaica's nine mills. Trinidad and Tobago is the only producer in the Commonwealth Caribbean in which Booker Ta te is not involved. In all cases the company contracted to give corporate ma nagement and technical services to sugar industries in the five countries. I t provides engineers, technologists, agriculturalists, economists, marketing specialists and support staff. The industries in both Guyana and Jamaica ha ve attracted financial assistance from multilateral institutions as a result of the management contracts given to Booker Tate, But assessments to the co mpany's effectiveness differ in the two countries. Jamaican officials say th e performance of the two mills managed by the company since 1985 has been 'd isappointing'. Yet the case of Guyana shows that the regional sugar industry is not beyond redemption. From output of 330,000 tonnes a year in the mid-1 970s, Guyana's production, plagued by labour unrest and poor weather, slumpe d to 135,000 tonnes in 1990. The industry declared shortfalls on its Europea n Community quota for three years, and shipped none of its quota to the US. Booker Tate's takeover of the management of the industry has been followed, however, by a decisive turnaround. Production is up this year and export quo tas have been met. In the Dominican Republic, the region's second largest pr oducer after Cuba, the problems of financial viability have been compounded by a shortage of labour. Foreign criticism of the treatment of workers from neighbouring Haiti, and the subsequent expulsion of thousands of Haitian wor kers, has resulted in the state-owned producer suffering a painful drop in o utput. Production this year is 8 per cent less than the 326,000 tonnes of la st year and sugar has had to be imported to meet domestic demand. The outloo k for the industry, like that of others in the region, has been depressed by the recent reduction in global imports by the US. The Caribbean's cumulativ e quota has been reduced by 11 per cent to 276,341 tonnes, causing an estima ted Dollars 15m reduction in earnings. It is the second consecutive cut for the Caribbean holders of US quotas, which were allowed to supply 471,710 ton nes in 1991. Sugar industry officials in the region say one area of uncertai nty is Mexico's future access to the US market under the Nafta. They say Mex ico's current and modest US quota of 7,500 tonnes a year can be increased 20 -fold in seven years, at the expense of existing suppliers. Cuba's troubled industry has received a fillip with a new trade agreement between the island and the Russian republic. Cuba will receive 23m barrels of Russian oil a ye ar for 2m tonnes of sugar - significantly less than the country had sold in past years to the former Soviet Union. But the island's economic problems ha ve depressed output this year to just over 6.9m tonnes. ------------------- ------------------------------- Caribbean Sugar Production ('000 tonnes, raw value) ------------------------------------------ -------- 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 --------------- ----------------------------------- Barbados 81 69 57 Cuba 7,547 7,932 7,000 Dominican Rep. 758 632 670 French W. Indies 82 4 6 38 Guyana 178 135 238 Haiti 30 31 30 Jamaica 225 2 19 224 Trinidad 95 120 110 ----------- --------------------------------------- Source: ED and F. Man. ------------ -------------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 30 ============================================== Transaction #: 30 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:03:10 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-5210 _AN-CK0B0AFQFT 9211 27 FT 27 NOV 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Barbadian collapse deepens shadow over Caribbean sugar - The region, faced with high costs and low productivity, relies on guaranteed market access < BYLINE> By CANUTE JAMES THE COLLAPSE of Barbados' sugar industry late last month is the latest indication of the sometimes terminal difficulties which beset Caribbean producers. The region is faced with high production costs and often low productivity, and is unable to survive withou t guaranteed access to markets such as the European Community and the US, an d which pay higher than prevailing world market prices. The problems caused by inefficiency and indebtedness are exacerbated by what many producers see as a threat to current preferential market arrangements. Many are worried by the recent reduction in US import quotas, and are uncertain how they will f are if the North American Free Trade Agreement is implemented and Mexican pr oduction becomes a market factor. In the case of Barbados, the island has be en unable to produce enough even to meet its quota obligations to these guar anteed markets. Efforts are under way to jump-start the industry after the s tate-owned Barbados National Bank, exercising tighter credit control as part of a government austerity programme, and which is owed Dollars 50m by the i ndustry, suspended all further loans. This followed production of 55,000 ton nes from the 1992 harvest, the lowest in 60 years, according to official fig ures. In order to make use of its opportunities on the EC and US markets the island has had to import sugar to meet domestic demand. Ironically, the col lapse of the industry came after indications that it was being put under new management by Booker Tate, a subsidiary of Booker, the UK food and farming group. The company has become an important factor in the region's troubled s ugar industry, and has been called in to help the industries in Guyana, Beli ze and St Kitts-Nevis, and to run two of Jamaica's nine mills. Trinidad and Tobago is the only producer in the Commonwealth Caribbean in which Booker Ta te is not involved. In all cases the company contracted to give corporate ma nagement and technical services to sugar industries in the five countries. I t provides engineers, technologists, agriculturalists, economists, marketing specialists and support staff. The industries in both Guyana and Jamaica ha ve attracted financial assistance from multilateral institutions as a result of the management contracts given to Booker Tate, But assessments to the co mpany's effectiveness differ in the two countries. Jamaican officials say th e performance of the two mills managed by the company since 1985 has been 'd isappointing'. Yet the case of Guyana shows that the regional sugar industry is not beyond redemption. From output of 330,000 tonnes a year in the mid-1 970s, Guyana's production, plagued by labour unrest and poor weather, slumpe d to 135,000 tonnes in 1990. The industry declared shortfalls on its Europea n Community quota for three years, and shipped none of its quota to the US. Booker Tate's takeover of the management of the industry has been followed, however, by a decisive turnaround. Production is up this year and export quo tas have been met. In the Dominican Republic, the region's second largest pr oducer after Cuba, the problems of financial viability have been compounded by a shortage of labour. Foreign criticism of the treatment of workers from neighbouring Haiti, and the subsequent expulsion of thousands of Haitian wor kers, has resulted in the state-owned producer suffering a painful drop in o utput. Production this year is 8 per cent less than the 326,000 tonnes of la st year and sugar has had to be imported to meet domestic demand. The outloo k for the industry, like that of others in the region, has been depressed by the recent reduction in global imports by the US. The Caribbean's cumulativ e quota has been reduced by 11 per cent to 276,341 tonnes, causing an estima ted Dollars 15m reduction in earnings. It is the second consecutive cut for the Caribbean holders of US quotas, which were allowed to supply 471,710 ton nes in 1991. Sugar industry officials in the region say one area of uncertai nty is Mexico's future access to the US market under the Nafta. They say Mex ico's current and modest US quota of 7,500 tonnes a year can be increased 20 -fold in seven years, at the expense of existing suppliers. Cuba's troubled industry has received a fillip with a new trade agreement between the island and the Russian republic. Cuba will receive 23m barrels of Russian oil a ye ar for 2m tonnes of sugar - significantly less than the country had sold in past years to the former Soviet Union. But the island's economic problems ha ve depressed output this year to just over 6.9m tonnes. ------------------- ------------------------------- Caribbean Sugar Production ('000 tonnes, raw value) ------------------------------------------ -------- 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 --------------- ----------------------------------- Barbados 81 69 57 Cuba 7,547 7,932 7,000 Dominican Rep. 758 632 670 French W. Indies 82 4 6 38 Guyana 178 135 238 Haiti 30 31 30 Jamaica 225 2 19 224 Trinidad 95 120 110 ----------- --------------------------------------- Source: ED and F. Man. ------------ -------------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 30 ============= Transaction # 31 ============================================== Transaction #: 31 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:03:33 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-12369 _AN-EKBD9AA5FT 941 102 FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies < /HEADLINE> By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER MOSCOW, HAVANA Russia has suspended shipments of oil to Cuba because the Caribbean state has not met its promised level of sugar exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov, the Russian trade minister, said yester day. The cut in supplies to a country which once enjoyed the closest links w ith the former Soviet Union is expected to further damage the recession-hit Cuban economy. The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count ries which once enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w orld market level - including former Soviet states which are now independent countries. Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba, but had received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the amount agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h ad agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t o the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to i mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the ba rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable. An official of the Cuban sugar organ isation, Cubazucar, said the deal, agreed last December, was still active - although only partly fulfilled. 'It doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho wever, Cuba would not be able to deliver sugar until December or January, af ter this year's harvest. Countries:- RUZ Russia, Eas t Europe. CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 32 ============================================== Transaction #: 32 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:03:37 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-12369 _AN-EKBD9AA5FT 941 102 FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies < /HEADLINE> By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER MOSCOW, HAVANA Russia has suspended shipments of oil to Cuba because the Caribbean state has not met its promised level of sugar exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov, the Russian trade minister, said yester day. The cut in supplies to a country which once enjoyed the closest links w ith the former Soviet Union is expected to further damage the recession-hit Cuban economy. The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count ries which once enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w orld market level - including former Soviet states which are now independent countries. Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba, but had received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the amount agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h ad agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t o the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to i mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the ba rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable. An official of the Cuban sugar organ isation, Cubazucar, said the deal, agreed last December, was still active - although only partly fulfilled. 'It doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho wever, Cuba would not be able to deliver sugar until December or January, af ter this year's harvest. Countries:- RUZ Russia, Eas t Europe. CUZ Cuba, Caribbean. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 33 ============================================== Transaction #: 33 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:06:07 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-1295 _AN-EFXC1AF4FT 9406 24 FT 24 JUN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar ind ustries respond to adversity - Canute James reports on efforts to revive fla gging productivity in the Caribbean By CANUTE JAMES Sugar producers in the Caribbean Community, whose major mar ket is the European Union, have been having a difficult time, and some have been forced into financial and administrative restructuring to improve effic iency and production. The problems have raised questions about the ability o f some regional producers to meet their quota obligations to the EU and the US. Regional industries have benefitted from new loans, others from the canc ellation of debts, the servicing of which had been a burden on their operati ons. Elsewhere industries have called on new managements as part of their re structuring. These smaller producers in the Caribbean, unlike Cuba and the D ominican Republic, have been forced to concentrate on satisfying their lucra tive markets in Europe, and some have been driven to import sugar for domest ic use. Combined production in the Commonwealth Caribbean countries fell by 3 per cent to 732,000 tonnes last year, with St Kitts-Nevis, the smallest pr oducer, the only one to record an increase. The problems facing the region's industry are illustrated by the state of the sector in Barbados, which is u ndergoing a USDollars 30m rehabilitation programme. The aim is to improve th e industry's efficiency, increase the level of mechanisation and re-equip mi lls, to enable higher production. The island will have to import sugar this year to meet domestic demand because all output from the current harvest is being shipped to Europe to fulfil the quota to the EU. The industry will ach ieve its production target of 50,000 tonnes, but this is 4,000 tonnes less t han the country's EU quota. The additional sugar for Europe will come 'drawi ng down on carry-over stock from last year,' industry officials say. They de ny that sugar will be imported for transhipment to Europe as 'it would be in contravention of our legal agreement with the EU for supplying sugar'. The prospects for an improvement rest on the planned restructuring of the indust ry and the administrative skills of Booker Tate of the UK, which has been co ntracted to manage the industry. The Barbadians are clearly hoping that Book er Tate can emulate the success it has had in Guyana where production last y ear was slightly below that of 1992 but 50 per cent more than 1991. The impo rtation of management skills four years ago was followed by a World Bank loa n of USDollars 15m to the Guyanese industry for the rehabilitation of aspect s of the industry, and to improve productivity. There has also been improvem ent of irrigation and drainage systems in the industry. The growth in produc tion, which was dramatically evident in 1992, is continuing. Good weather an d higher productivity lifted the country's sugar production from the first o f the industry's two harvests to 109,000 tonnes, 14,000 tonnes more than the first harvest of last year. The industry is anticipating combined productio n from both harvests this year at 250,000 tonnes, and if this is achieved it will he the highest annual output in the past nine years, officials say. Gu yana will be able to meet its export commitments this year to the EU and the US, as well as satisfying domestic demand. The financial restructuring of t he industry in Trinidad and Tobago has also contributed to improved producti on. The government recently assumed debts of about USDollars 530m owed by th e state-owned Caroni, the country's sole producer. The company also recently received new funds of Dollars 21m for financing pre-harvest operations. Thi s relief, and an improvement in the quality of canes and reduced labour unre st, helped to lift the country's sugar production from the 1994 harvest to 1 27,612 tonnes, 17,000 tonnes more than last year, and the highest in 20 year s, according to industry spokesmen. This will allow the industry easily to m eet its export quotas to the EU and the US, and a further rise in production is forecast for next year. Jamaica's hopes for significantly higher output than last year's 224,000 tonnes have been set back by prolonged labour unres t and bad weather. A strike by the industry's field and mill workers earlier this year to protest at the slow pace of negotiations between their unions and mill owners, and unseasonably heavy rains, have cut production by about 25,000 tonnes. The industry had been forecasting output of 245,000 tonnes th is year. The expected improvement was based on improved efficiency in the in dustry following the sale in January of four of five state-owned mills to lo cal and foreign investors. Planned retooling of the mills and improvements t o another four, which have always been in private hands, has led the industr y to forecast national output in the next two years at about 350,000 tonnes a year. Countries:- XFZ Caribbean. BBZ Barbados , Caribbean. TTZ Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean. JMZ Jamaica, Cari bbean. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. Types:- MKTS Production. CMMT Comment & Analysis. < /TP> The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 34 ============================================== Transaction #: 34 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:06:09 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-1295 _AN-EFXC1AF4FT 9406 24 FT 24 JUN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar ind ustries respond to adversity - Canute James reports on efforts to revive fla gging productivity in the Caribbean By CANUTE JAMES Sugar producers in the Caribbean Community, whose major mar ket is the European Union, have been having a difficult time, and some have been forced into financial and administrative restructuring to improve effic iency and production. The problems have raised questions about the ability o f some regional producers to meet their quota obligations to the EU and the US. Regional industries have benefitted from new loans, others from the canc ellation of debts, the servicing of which had been a burden on their operati ons. Elsewhere industries have called on new managements as part of their re structuring. These smaller producers in the Caribbean, unlike Cuba and the D ominican Republic, have been forced to concentrate on satisfying their lucra tive markets in Europe, and some have been driven to import sugar for domest ic use. Combined production in the Commonwealth Caribbean countries fell by 3 per cent to 732,000 tonnes last year, with St Kitts-Nevis, the smallest pr oducer, the only one to record an increase. The problems facing the region's industry are illustrated by the state of the sector in Barbados, which is u ndergoing a USDollars 30m rehabilitation programme. The aim is to improve th e industry's efficiency, increase the level of mechanisation and re-equip mi lls, to enable higher production. The island will have to import sugar this year to meet domestic demand because all output from the current harvest is being shipped to Europe to fulfil the quota to the EU. The industry will ach ieve its production target of 50,000 tonnes, but this is 4,000 tonnes less t han the country's EU quota. The additional sugar for Europe will come 'drawi ng down on carry-over stock from last year,' industry officials say. They de ny that sugar will be imported for transhipment to Europe as 'it would be in contravention of our legal agreement with the EU for supplying sugar'. The prospects for an improvement rest on the planned restructuring of the indust ry and the administrative skills of Booker Tate of the UK, which has been co ntracted to manage the industry. The Barbadians are clearly hoping that Book er Tate can emulate the success it has had in Guyana where production last y ear was slightly below that of 1992 but 50 per cent more than 1991. The impo rtation of management skills four years ago was followed by a World Bank loa n of USDollars 15m to the Guyanese industry for the rehabilitation of aspect s of the industry, and to improve productivity. There has also been improvem ent of irrigation and drainage systems in the industry. The growth in produc tion, which was dramatically evident in 1992, is continuing. Good weather an d higher productivity lifted the country's sugar production from the first o f the industry's two harvests to 109,000 tonnes, 14,000 tonnes more than the first harvest of last year. The industry is anticipating combined productio n from both harvests this year at 250,000 tonnes, and if this is achieved it will he the highest annual output in the past nine years, officials say. Gu yana will be able to meet its export commitments this year to the EU and the US, as well as satisfying domestic demand. The financial restructuring of t he industry in Trinidad and Tobago has also contributed to improved producti on. The government recently assumed debts of about USDollars 530m owed by th e state-owned Caroni, the country's sole producer. The company also recently received new funds of Dollars 21m for financing pre-harvest operations. Thi s relief, and an improvement in the quality of canes and reduced labour unre st, helped to lift the country's sugar production from the 1994 harvest to 1 27,612 tonnes, 17,000 tonnes more than last year, and the highest in 20 year s, according to industry spokesmen. This will allow the industry easily to m eet its export quotas to the EU and the US, and a further rise in production is forecast for next year. Jamaica's hopes for significantly higher output than last year's 224,000 tonnes have been set back by prolonged labour unres t and bad weather. A strike by the industry's field and mill workers earlier this year to protest at the slow pace of negotiations between their unions and mill owners, and unseasonably heavy rains, have cut production by about 25,000 tonnes. The industry had been forecasting output of 245,000 tonnes th is year. The expected improvement was based on improved efficiency in the in dustry following the sale in January of four of five state-owned mills to lo cal and foreign investors. Planned retooling of the mills and improvements t o another four, which have always been in private hands, has led the industr y to forecast national output in the next two years at about 350,000 tonnes a year. Countries:- XFZ Caribbean. BBZ Barbados , Caribbean. TTZ Trinidad and Tobago, Caribbean. JMZ Jamaica, Cari bbean. Industries:- P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets. Types:- MKTS Production. CMMT Comment & Analysis. < /TP> The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 35 ============================================== Transaction #: 35 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:06:41 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 19 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 7 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 36 ============================================== Transaction #: 36 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:07:04 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba,exports, imports}) and (topic {cuba, }) and (topic {ex ports, imports})" ============= Transaction # 37 ============================================== Transaction #: 37 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:07:13 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 51 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 38 ============================================== Transaction #: 38 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:08:18 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {cuba,sugar,exports,}) and (topic {cuba, sugar}) and (topic {exports, })" ============= Transaction # 39 ============================================== Transaction #: 39 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:08:23 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 40 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 40 ============================================== Transaction #: 40 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:09:16 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 41 ============================================== Transaction #: 41 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:09:18 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-9644 _AN-CBKBQACWFT 9202 11 FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban sugar crop forecast By DAMIAN FRASER MEXICO CITY CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor ding to a group of sugar experts who gathered together in the Dominican repu blic under the auspices of the (moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom ica de los Amigos del Pais. The experts - who included a senior official fro m the US Department of Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as sorted academics - believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las t two months of 1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest by between 300,000 and 1m tonnes. In January harvesting appears to have bee n very slow. Even if the weather holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes this year, given the shortages of spare pa rts, poor maintenance of equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of rain would push the forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich t. In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m to nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates, suggested that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards as early as this week. The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt ered economy hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7 5 per cent of exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil l come as welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its elf for a flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the former-Soviet Union. In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1 5m tonnes of sugar, of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t onnes to China, about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t o assorted countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio n 4m tonnes of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An exchange that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo rld price of 8 cents a lb). This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate with ex-Soviet Union states. So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500, 000 tonnes of Cuban sugar, with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz akhstan will take another 200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes; and Latvia 50,000 tonnes. Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m tonnes of sugar that in the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product ion at the lower 6.5m tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op tions fully taken up. Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s tates that have yet to sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe rg, perhaps as much as 400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea. Nevertheless the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m tonnes of extra Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates still further. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 42 ============================================== Transaction #: 42 Transaction Code: 30 (Rel. Feedback Cancelled) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:09:26 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 43 ============================================== Transaction #: 43 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:10:59 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1 ============= Transaction # 44 ============================================== Transaction #: 44 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:11:44 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 207189 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 45 ============================================== Transaction #: 45 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:12:55 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 46 ============================================== Transaction #: 46 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:14:42 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {robotic technology}) or (topic {robotics}) or (topic {robot ic technology})" ============= Transaction # 47 ============================================== Transaction #: 47 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:14:46 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 12427 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 48 ============================================== Transaction #: 48 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:15:15 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 49 ============================================== Transaction #: 49 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:15:19 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-9444 _AN-CEGBFAFXFT 9205 07 FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in Europe By ANDREW BAXTER In the US f ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn look for de nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to the knee, thigh and seat areas. The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu gh manual spraying, but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac hieve. Now GMFanuc Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t imes faster than manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura cy of 0.03 inch, and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm ents. The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu strial robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar atively mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere. It is a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the European market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is much lower than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for non-automotive applic ations remains untapped. According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e ngineering and marketing at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial robots installed in Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per cent in electronics -the reverse of the situation in Japan. 'The automotiv e industry has more or less understood the potential of robots,' says Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest producer, although he stress es, along with other robot industry executives, the potential of robots in t he paint-spraying and final assembly area of European vehicle manufacturing. The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough t to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe re model changes are frequent. Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer ging in the European food, packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr ies. But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part ly on suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1 970s and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by euphoria over business prospects. There are other obstacles, too, for suppl iers to surmount. In Japan, one of the driving forces behind the growth in t he industrial robot population to 274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu lation in the former West Germany -has been labour shortages. 'Everything h as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel Gerhardt, an executiv e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robo t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is economical to do so. In J apan the question is often whether to produce with a robot or not to produce there at all.' Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots, for which the suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have tended to put in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says Demark. 'This is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.' Increasingly, robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads into the smal l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European industry - espec ially outside the automotive sector - they have to understand better the cu stomer's needs and worries. 'You have to enter into an economic calculation with the customer and demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt ucci. That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow n against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more se nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain its reputation. Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated automation package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry. Mattucci wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe r cent over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot ics for body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations. The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i s its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat) prog ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the auto mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will incor porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical alloy s and composites. A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b ase is in evidence at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's second biggest supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no w available in the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of less than a year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager. Robo tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly because it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean it wit hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its 'Wash down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food indust ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in washdown o r wipedown procedures. In the European electronics industry, robots are more frequent but applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su pplier of plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins talled an ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi de an attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th e Apple Macintosh. Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup ply lines if not kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo t to fire the spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim e. Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers' has te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have rel evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields. Laser w elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of industries, inclu ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike conventional spot welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of the part to be weld ed. Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for cutt ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the automotive industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels. In both ar eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which have devel oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities quicker. Co mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine tool builde r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB Robotics fo rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and market a r obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe. The search for a broader Europe an customer base coincides with a much more price-conscious attitude over th e past two to three years among customers, due as much to general business c onditions as to scepticism about the early claims made by robot suppliers. S uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the applications available from each model. These conditions give advantages and disadvantages in more or less equal measure to European suppliers and Japan ese/US importers, which control one third of the market. Demark and Mattucci strongly believe that the European suppliers benefit from a approach based on solutions rather than products. 'The Japanese do not have the solutions f or European needs,' says Mattucci flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b y the Japanese producers, but in a price-sensitive market the the Japanese d o have the advantage of size - investment in control systems, in particular, can be spread over a bigger sales base. Ultimately, though, all the robot s uppliers could benefit if they can persuade more European companies of the b enefits of robots. And that is likely to be a gradual process where technolo gy is only one factor in the equation. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 50 ============================================== Transaction #: 50 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:16:34 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 51 ============================================== Transaction #: 51 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:16:36 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4414 _AN-CFEA9AEEFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots By ANDREW BAXTER ROBOTS have become an e stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene over the past 15 years. T he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per cent of the 450,000 install ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is changing and applications ar e expanding. The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil lions of spot welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is still true, but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely to be grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid e range of models in quick succession. At the same time, smaller robots are increasingly being used in engine assembly, where their ability to do qualit y, repetitive work with a precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de mand. Robots are being used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s uppliers hope to be able to develop these markets now that the technology ha s been proven. There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv e sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as conf ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for their own work. The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition in the industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product development times, are changing the use and design of robots. The tradition al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may have been approp riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years. But with model liv es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep their robots for furth er models, and thus want increased flexibility, according to Dr Axel Gerhard t, a senior board member at the holding company for Kuka, Germany's largest robot supplier. Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated in Japan where labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob ots into industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie rs such as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot ive industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese counterpart. However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le ss prevalent in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi nce producers of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t he UK is a long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot s in the paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at GMFanuc Robotics. The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha t go beyond spot welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem bly of the Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai lgate, with the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c ockpit is picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro ugh the door and then bolted to the body by a second robot. Robots are used for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass exactly into th e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats are inserted by r obot after measuring the exact position of the body by means of tactile sens ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate refitted. Some of these tasks are difficult for robots because of the nature of final assembly. Robots ar e having to operate in a less structured environment, says Mr Wilson, and de al with less defined objects such as seats. Another problem, at least outsid e Japan, is that labour is available and costs less than in skilled manufact uring areas. So robot suppliers have to find applications that create added value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics. There are still opportun ities for greater use of robots further up the production line. Relatively n ew processes such as laser-cutting and water-jet cutting are likely to becom e more prevalent, in association with robots, especially for working with pl astics and new advanced composites. Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in automated arc-welding in the automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com au, the Italian robotics and systems group, expects some interesting investm ents in the body area, prompted by the increased need for new models, accord ing to Mr Massimo Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing. In paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface. L ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and Behr of Germany have strong positions. The flexibility of robots to handle m odel changes will be the key to their further implementation in the car body area. In engine and transmission production, robots are becoming better est ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests a new generation of engines prompted by t ougher environmental regulations could be the spur to further investment in robots. However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems likely to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha ses as customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments. In the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot refitt ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model changeo vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and productivity. < /TEXT> The Financial Times London Page III ============= Transaction # 52 ============================================== Transaction #: 52 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:17:20 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-769 _AN-DF0AKAD0FT 93062 6 FT 26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th e operating theatre By CLIVE COOKSON YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai n tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical r evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over t he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses in struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be possi ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away, using a c ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality. The most striking sign of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting to welcome robotic assi stants into their operating theatres. Within the past few months, robots hav e helped to carry out hip replacements in California, prostate operations in London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later this year, gall bladder removal, hernia repair and a variety of other abdominal operations will be added to the list of robotic accomplishments. Despite this, even the most en thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be several years before they would c onsider leaving a robot to operate on its own. The late Hap Paul, chief inve ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We have to move very slowly and ca refully because one false move by a surgical robot - and this whole technolo gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the world's largest and best-finan ced project in medical robotics. Since November, 10 patients at Sutter gener al hospital in Sacramento have had hip replacements with the aid of Robodoc, a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve the cavity for an implant in the thi gh bone. Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical Systems, the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from IBM, is forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Adm inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in th ree US hospitals. Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the skilled hands of a human specialist? The most important reason is that an el ectronic arm is capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b est-trained surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat ients will be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot her receiving conventional hip replacements. Surgical robots promise more th an improvements in existing procedures, says Patrick Finlay, managing direct or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK medical robotics company based at B eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced collateral damage and greater precisio n of the robot will make it possible to do operations that would otherwise b e too risky to contemplate. For example, a tumour very close to the optic ne rve can be tackled without making the patient blind.' Several different type s of surgical robot are under development around the world. Robodoc is an 'a ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue. 'Orthopaedic work is an attrac tive application because the robot is working on hard tissue that doesn't mo ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an engineer specialising in medical robotics at Imperial College, London. Most operations, however, involve cutt ing soft tissues - a task that is more delicate than carving bone. So far, o nly 'passive' robots have been used for this type of surgery. They may move instruments inside the patient, under the surgeon's direction, but they do n ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam. An example is Laparobot, which Armstro ng Projects is developing with Mark Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic . Laparobot will give someone carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of 'walking around' inside the patient's body, using tele-presence techniques. A keyhole surgeon views the operating site with a miniature video camera at the end of a thin optical tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h ole (typically, in the tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope, projects the scene on to a TV screen above the patient. Normally, an assist ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the surgeon needs a differe nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of the surgeon's head and moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a foot button and moves h is head to the left, the robot will change the view inside the patient's bod y. For this year's initial trials at the London Clinic, Laparobot will work with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage will be for the surgeon to wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the impression of being immers ed in the operating environment. As he looks around, the scene will change a s though he were actually inside the abdominal cavity. Further in the future lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger movements to the control of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot will make the surgery more efficient - less stressful for the surgeon, faster and more accurate, and wi th less risk of damage to the patient,' says Ornstein. Armstrong is also wor king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National Hospital for Neurolog y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain surgery. By the end of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an 'image-guided robot' that wi ll help the surgeon position his instruments at the correct point in the bra in to perform the operation. The next stage will be for Neurobot itself to i nsert the instruments. A surgical robot is given as much prior information a s possible about relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o r MRI scan. Its computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. Although the surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o n the computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp ected events. Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's head. If it detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro mpt the surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak ing the new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until the surgeon has signalled his approval. Finlay says a good indicator of prog ress in surgical robotics will be the increasing amount of freedom given to the robot. 'Although the surgeon will never cease to participate, it is real istic to envisage a situation similar to the relationship between an airline r captain and his autopilot, in which the human provides a supervisory and m onitoring role and is available to take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa ys. The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo n uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of m iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot, althoug h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in case the system crashed. Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe ty. Yet, as Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo ts operating on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor k in metal cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa ctory robots going out of control shows the need for such rules). 'There are two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable to start ou t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level software system t o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure. But, in my view, t hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the robot from the bas ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every level.' That means givin g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with duplicated softwar e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond pre-defined limits. A nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising surgeon's hand to hit the stop button in time to avoid damage if all the safety systems fail. Demonstr ating safety is not enough, though. Growing concerns about the financial cos ts of medical care are forcing both public health authorities and private ho spitals to demand evidence that new technology will deliver benefits that ou tweigh its expense. Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la rge-scale clinical trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica l equipment have been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen t. A report on medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv isory Council on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep tion of pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because it 'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.' Peter Doyl e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical research committ ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that has been introdu ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says the National He alth Service should require all new medical devices to be assessed under con trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured. Miles Irving, pro fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital, says that such a ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face strong consumer p ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been properly evaluated .' Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc . 'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a publi city stunt for them.' Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U niversity, US experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its elf as an indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc e to prove its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and more flashy machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation. The introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi lar competitive pressures in the UK. ISS believes its clinical trial will en able orthopaedic hospitals to justify buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin g 400 hip replacements a year, on the basis that implants from robotic opera tions last longer than those inserted manually and so save money in the long run. But the recent history of medical research and technology, from antibi otics to diagnostic scanners, shows that while each development can be justi fied in isolation as being cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs tantially to the financial burden of health care by creating new demand from patients and adding to the number of elderly people in the population. Two decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a purely ma nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car factory, s urgical robots can only make the process more expensive. Enthusiastic medica l technologists can answer any question except one: how will we pay for it? Companies:- Armstrong Projects. Imperial Chemical Industries. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments. P38 42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies. P8099 Health and Allied Services, N EC. P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Finan cial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 53 ============================================== Transaction #: 53 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:17:22 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-769 _AN-DF0AKAD0FT 93062 6 FT 26 JUN 93 / Calling Dr Dalek - your patient is wait ing: A revolution in surgery where robots are taking an increased role in th e operating theatre By CLIVE COOKSON YOU ARE about to have the anaesthetic before an operation to remove a brai n tumour. Would you feel happier knowing that the most delicate part of the procedure was to be carried out by the gently trembling hand of the world's most skilful surgeon - or by a rock-steady robot? That question will soon be more than a fantasy because surgery is in the early stages of a technical r evolution. The first step has been the spread of 'keyhole' operations over t he past five years. Instead of cutting open the patient, the surgeon uses in struments guided by telescope through tiny incisions. Soon, it will be possi ble to work by remote control on patients thousands of miles away, using a c ombination of telecommunications and virtual reality. The most striking sign of change, though, is the way surgeons are starting to welcome robotic assi stants into their operating theatres. Within the past few months, robots hav e helped to carry out hip replacements in California, prostate operations in London and brain surgery in Grenoble, France. Later this year, gall bladder removal, hernia repair and a variety of other abdominal operations will be added to the list of robotic accomplishments. Despite this, even the most en thusiastic surgeons say it is likely to be several years before they would c onsider leaving a robot to operate on its own. The late Hap Paul, chief inve ntor of California's Robodoc, cautioned: 'We have to move very slowly and ca refully because one false move by a surgical robot - and this whole technolo gy is set back by many years.' Robodoc is the world's largest and best-finan ced project in medical robotics. Since November, 10 patients at Sutter gener al hospital in Sacramento have had hip replacements with the aid of Robodoc, a 250 lb automaton programmed to carve the cavity for an implant in the thi gh bone. Although Paul died two months ago (at only 44), Integrated Surgical Systems, the company he founded with financial and scientific backing from IBM, is forging ahead. It is waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Adm inistration to carry out a clinical trial of Robodoc with 300 patients in th ree US hospitals. Why should a patient trust a robotic tool rather than the skilled hands of a human specialist? The most important reason is that an el ectronic arm is capable of precision well beyond that of the steadiest and b est-trained surgeon. ISS hopes to prove this through its trial, in which pat ients will be allocated at random into one group treated by Robodoc and anot her receiving conventional hip replacements. Surgical robots promise more th an improvements in existing procedures, says Patrick Finlay, managing direct or of Armstrong Projects, a fledgling UK medical robotics company based at B eaconsfield near London. 'The reduced collateral damage and greater precisio n of the robot will make it possible to do operations that would otherwise b e too risky to contemplate. For example, a tumour very close to the optic ne rve can be tackled without making the patient blind.' Several different type s of surgical robot are under development around the world. Robodoc is an 'a ctive' robot that actually cuts human tissue. 'Orthopaedic work is an attrac tive application because the robot is working on hard tissue that doesn't mo ve if you prod it,' notes Brian Davies, an engineer specialising in medical robotics at Imperial College, London. Most operations, however, involve cutt ing soft tissues - a task that is more delicate than carving bone. So far, o nly 'passive' robots have been used for this type of surgery. They may move instruments inside the patient, under the surgeon's direction, but they do n ot yet wield a scalpel or laser beam. An example is Laparobot, which Armstro ng Projects is developing with Mark Ornstein, a surgeon at the London Clinic . Laparobot will give someone carrying out keyhole surgery the impression of 'walking around' inside the patient's body, using tele-presence techniques. A keyhole surgeon views the operating site with a miniature video camera at the end of a thin optical tube, inserted into the body through a puncture h ole (typically, in the tummy button). This instrument, called a laparoscope, projects the scene on to a TV screen above the patient. Normally, an assist ant has to hold the laparoscope and move it when the surgeon needs a differe nt view. But Laparobot itself senses the position of the surgeon's head and moves the image accordingly. If the surgeon pushes a foot button and moves h is head to the left, the robot will change the view inside the patient's bod y. For this year's initial trials at the London Clinic, Laparobot will work with an existing TV monitor - but the next stage will be for the surgeon to wear a helmet-mounted display which will give the impression of being immers ed in the operating environment. As he looks around, the scene will change a s though he were actually inside the abdominal cavity. Further in the future lies the prospect of linking the surgeon's finger movements to the control of micro-instruments within the body. 'Laparobot will make the surgery more efficient - less stressful for the surgeon, faster and more accurate, and wi th less risk of damage to the patient,' says Ornstein. Armstrong is also wor king with Professor David Thomas, of London's National Hospital for Neurolog y, to develop Neurobot, a system for carrying out brain surgery. By the end of this year, they hope to have demonstrated an 'image-guided robot' that wi ll help the surgeon position his instruments at the correct point in the bra in to perform the operation. The next stage will be for Neurobot itself to i nsert the instruments. A surgical robot is given as much prior information a s possible about relevant parts of the patient's body - usually, from a CT o r MRI scan. Its computer converts this into a digital model of the patient. Although the surgeon works out in advance the path of the operation, based o n the computer model, the system must be flexible enough to respond to unexp ected events. Neurobot, for example, will have a sensor inside the patient's head. If it detects the presence of an unexpected blood vessel, it will pro mpt the surgeon for advice. Its software might propose a modified route, tak ing the new information into account, but the robot will not go ahead until the surgeon has signalled his approval. Finlay says a good indicator of prog ress in surgical robotics will be the increasing amount of freedom given to the robot. 'Although the surgeon will never cease to participate, it is real istic to envisage a situation similar to the relationship between an airline r captain and his autopilot, in which the human provides a supervisory and m onitoring role and is available to take over the critical manoeuvres,' he sa ys. The consultant need not be in the operating theatre with the patient. In tele-surgery projects under way in the US and France, an experienced surgeo n uses a video link to supervise a junior doctor in a hospital hundreds of m iles away. The surgeon could equally well supervise a distant robot, althoug h local medical and nursing staff would still have to be present in case the system crashed. Everyone involved in medical robotics is obsessed with safe ty. Yet, as Davies points out, there are no agreed safety standards for robo ts operating on people, whereas regulations require industrial robots to wor k in metal cages. (The fact that two workers in Japan have been killed by fa ctory robots going out of control shows the need for such rules). 'There are two views on safety,' says Davies. 'One is that it's acceptable to start ou t with an industrial robot provided you put in a top-level software system t o bring the thing to a halt in the event of some failure. But, in my view, t hat's not safe enough. I think you need to re-develop the robot from the bas ic servo level upwards, building in safety at every level.' That means givin g the surgical robot the equivalent of a metal cage, with duplicated softwar e and hardware constraints to prevent it moving beyond pre-defined limits. A nd it must move slowly enough for the supervising surgeon's hand to hit the stop button in time to avoid damage if all the safety systems fail. Demonstr ating safety is not enough, though. Growing concerns about the financial cos ts of medical care are forcing both public health authorities and private ho spitals to demand evidence that new technology will deliver benefits that ou tweigh its expense. Drugs have long had to justify their effectiveness in la rge-scale clinical trials but, until now, new surgical procedures and medica l equipment have been introduced with remarkably little systematic assessmen t. A report on medical research earlier this year by the UK government's Adv isory Council on Science and Technology (Acost) pointed out: 'With the excep tion of pharmaceuticals, demands for evaluation have been questioned because it 'stands to reason' that the new techniques will be 'better'.' Peter Doyl e, research director of ICI and chairman of Acost's medical research committ ee, gives keyhole surgery as an example of a procedure that has been introdu ced 'haphazardly' without proper evaluation. The report says the National He alth Service should require all new medical devices to be assessed under con trolled conditions, and their cost effectiveness measured. Miles Irving, pro fessor of surgery at Manchester University's Hope Hospital, says that such a ssessment is all the more necessary 'because surgeons face strong consumer p ressure to introduce new procedures before they have been properly evaluated .' Hap Paul felt that pressure when he was looking for sites to test Robodoc . 'Tertiary care centres in the US - the big university hospitals - see this as an advance that will help them attract patients,' he said. 'So, we have to be very careful in choosing our sites, to make sure it's not just a publi city stunt for them.' Indeed, says John Hutton, a health economist at York U niversity, US experience shows that patients regard hi-tech equipment in its elf as an indicator of quality, whether or not there is any clinical evidenc e to prove its superiority. Therefore, hospitals compete by buying more and more flashy machines - and their charges shoot up far faster than inflation. The introduction of an internal market in the NHS is likely to lead to simi lar competitive pressures in the UK. ISS believes its clinical trial will en able orthopaedic hospitals to justify buying a Dollars 750,000 Robodoc, doin g 400 hip replacements a year, on the basis that implants from robotic opera tions last longer than those inserted manually and so save money in the long run. But the recent history of medical research and technology, from antibi otics to diagnostic scanners, shows that while each development can be justi fied in isolation as being cost-effective, the overall result is to add subs tantially to the financial burden of health care by creating new demand from patients and adding to the number of elderly people in the population. Two decades from now, only second-class patients will choose to have a purely ma nual operation. But, in contrast to labour-saving robots in a car factory, s urgical robots can only make the process more expensive. Enthusiastic medica l technologists can answer any question except one: how will we pay for it? Companies:- Armstrong Projects. Imperial Chemical Industries. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3841 Surgical and Medical Instruments. P38 42 Surgical Appliances and Supplies. P8099 Health and Allied Services, N EC. P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Finan cial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 54 ============================================== Transaction #: 54 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:17:55 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 55 ============================================== Transaction #: 55 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:17:57 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 56 ============================================== Transaction #: 56 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:18:28 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 57 ============================================== Transaction #: 57 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:18:30 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 58 ============================================== Transaction #: 58 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:18:35 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind Default:1,2,3,4,5 ============= Transaction # 59 ============================================== Transaction #: 59 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:20:25 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210158 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 60 ============================================== Transaction #: 60 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:23:57 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4411 _AN-CFEA9AEHFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly By CHRIS BARRIE ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo st difficult to build and the chances are that he or she will name the engin e or the car body. In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive , task is when engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and fixed in the painted car body - a process known as final assembly. To please the customer the car company must offer many different options on each basi c car. Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line has to cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics, equipment, and tinted glass. Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo od plant on Merseyside. There are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit ted to this car depending on colour and specification. Similarly there are u p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60 variations in the door mirr ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the door trim panels according to the model mix being built at the plant. The complexity of choosing the righ t component and fitting it into the right model has left these areas of the factory dominated by men and women, not machines. It has also made this part of car construction the area where, on the surface, greatest efficiency gai ns should be possible. The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an international study carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog y - found that final assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va lue of the car, a significant proportion. Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho urs of assembly time per car to carry out final assembly, compared with four hours to paint the car and five to weld it together (direct labour only). B y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body cons truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese. There is no escape from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on final assembly. Custo mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options. And in any case it is n ot the complexity itself which makes a factory efficient. The IMVP study sug gested that the factories coping with the most complex cars were also the mo st productive, and they were Japanese. So what are the solutions to making f inal assembly more efficient? Needless to say, companies are choosing differ ent ways ahead. The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has already been done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men. Machines will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta ndards. The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f ewer people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan, m achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not. There is certa inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps carried out by automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In Japan the equivale nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per cent of its actio n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan. Automation suppliers are co nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai Warn, Brussels-based manag er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics, says automation is just bec oming cost-effective in final assembly. He estimates that the cost of robots has fallen by 30 per cent in the past five years while their performance ha s risen by the same amount over the same period. Mr Warn estimates that the real advance in automation will come in the next two to three years as new c ars come on stream having been designed with automation in mind. But it is w orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you make it ea sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at automating fin al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears to have ruled it out as still not cost effective. But there are companies that have automa ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo car on highly automated lines at Cassino i n Italy. The factory has more than 100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor e than 1200 wire guided trollies and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th e most highly automated factory in the world. Similarly, Volkswagen builds t he Golf on highly-automated lines, while Citroen uses automation to carry ou t large numbers of final assembly tasks on the XM executive car at Rennes in France. But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of sop histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet the c omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to indirect c osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems. Professor Dan Jones of Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will only be cost-effective if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means Fiat will need another l ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning Tipo production on and off according to fluctuating demand. Similarly, automation can inhibit new m odel design by forcing engineers to cut costs by using tooling installed for the old model. The Volkswagen Golf is often cited as a case in point. Inste ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to automat ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates tasks tha t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation should be us ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the labour-intensive pinchpoin ts on a production line where workforce numbers may be reduced but the autom ation left with an impossibly complicated job - and the people with an impos sibly boring set of simple jobs. Instead of being concerned with machines, s ome managers are turning to two sets of people for help: the workforce and t he supplier. Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective . Rover achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i t went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the manageme nt skill in running the factory efficiently. All car companies will simplify their own tasks by asking suppliers to do more. Instead of assembling cars under one roof, car companies will receive built-up modules such as dashboar ds, seats or mouldings ready for installation into the car. But whichever ro ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right. Automation can be hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 61 ============================================== Transaction #: 61 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:24:00 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4411 _AN-CFEA9AEHFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly By CHRIS BARRIE ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo st difficult to build and the chances are that he or she will name the engin e or the car body. In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive , task is when engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and fixed in the painted car body - a process known as final assembly. To please the customer the car company must offer many different options on each basi c car. Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line has to cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics, equipment, and tinted glass. Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo od plant on Merseyside. There are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit ted to this car depending on colour and specification. Similarly there are u p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60 variations in the door mirr ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the door trim panels according to the model mix being built at the plant. The complexity of choosing the righ t component and fitting it into the right model has left these areas of the factory dominated by men and women, not machines. It has also made this part of car construction the area where, on the surface, greatest efficiency gai ns should be possible. The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an international study carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog y - found that final assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va lue of the car, a significant proportion. Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho urs of assembly time per car to carry out final assembly, compared with four hours to paint the car and five to weld it together (direct labour only). B y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body cons truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese. There is no escape from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on final assembly. Custo mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options. And in any case it is n ot the complexity itself which makes a factory efficient. The IMVP study sug gested that the factories coping with the most complex cars were also the mo st productive, and they were Japanese. So what are the solutions to making f inal assembly more efficient? Needless to say, companies are choosing differ ent ways ahead. The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has already been done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men. Machines will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta ndards. The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f ewer people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan, m achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not. There is certa inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps carried out by automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In Japan the equivale nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per cent of its actio n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan. Automation suppliers are co nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai Warn, Brussels-based manag er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics, says automation is just bec oming cost-effective in final assembly. He estimates that the cost of robots has fallen by 30 per cent in the past five years while their performance ha s risen by the same amount over the same period. Mr Warn estimates that the real advance in automation will come in the next two to three years as new c ars come on stream having been designed with automation in mind. But it is w orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you make it ea sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at automating fin al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears to have ruled it out as still not cost effective. But there are companies that have automa ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo car on highly automated lines at Cassino i n Italy. The factory has more than 100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor e than 1200 wire guided trollies and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th e most highly automated factory in the world. Similarly, Volkswagen builds t he Golf on highly-automated lines, while Citroen uses automation to carry ou t large numbers of final assembly tasks on the XM executive car at Rennes in France. But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of sop histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet the c omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to indirect c osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems. Professor Dan Jones of Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will only be cost-effective if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means Fiat will need another l ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning Tipo production on and off according to fluctuating demand. Similarly, automation can inhibit new m odel design by forcing engineers to cut costs by using tooling installed for the old model. The Volkswagen Golf is often cited as a case in point. Inste ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to automat ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates tasks tha t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation should be us ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the labour-intensive pinchpoin ts on a production line where workforce numbers may be reduced but the autom ation left with an impossibly complicated job - and the people with an impos sibly boring set of simple jobs. Instead of being concerned with machines, s ome managers are turning to two sets of people for help: the workforce and t he supplier. Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective . Rover achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i t went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the manageme nt skill in running the factory efficiently. All car companies will simplify their own tasks by asking suppliers to do more. Instead of assembling cars under one roof, car companies will receive built-up modules such as dashboar ds, seats or mouldings ready for installation into the car. But whichever ro ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right. Automation can be hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 62 ============================================== Transaction #: 62 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:24:22 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210158 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 63 ============================================== Transaction #: 63 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:25:47 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 210158 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 64 ============================================== Transaction #: 64 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:26:53 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 65 ============================================== Transaction #: 65 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:26:56 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-129 _AN-BENBQAC6FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus trial sector By ANDREW BAXTER FOR a ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform manufact uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial scene - w ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world industrial robot populati on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of which 220,000 were in Japan , 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and -very roughly - 75,000 els ewhere. There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In the past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their i ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost be nefits. Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti ng Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost e ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not deve loped their products technologically as fast as they might have. 'There's ve ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says. However, the evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be changing. Those 388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from the end of 1988, a nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new orders of Dollars 517. 4m. The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi ally in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry - which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales. Mr Donald Vincent, executive v ice-president of the US Robotic Industries Association, recalls that 'when t he automotive industry quit buying in 1986 and 1987, it sent robotics into a deep spin.' This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede d concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now, it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB Robot ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint vent ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of Japa n. Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and precisi on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in the food industry, materials handling and packaging. The wellspring for this diversif ication into new markets, which has already begun, is computer power. In mec hanical terms, robots are relatively simple beasts, and robotic technology h as always been based on the use of computers to overcome mechanical limitati ons. Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't he major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing power which have become available as a result of the development of advance d microprocessors.' Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst ems offer only incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs t generation of microcomputer controllers. Current research is looking at ar eas such as greater use of sensing - of the robot's environment and internal state - more sophisticated control techniques offering greater speed and ac curacy, robotic mobility and improved control of the interface between the r obot and the workpiece. Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid erable interest in industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical ly change many applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f ar failed to make their mark. Previous forecasts for the population of visio n-equipped robots have not been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a s the IFR has, that the continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens ors, and their greater speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech nological and economic barriers. Many of the business trends in robotics ove r the past few years are illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which claims to be the world's biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf acturers might dispute. ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro botics business was an important step in the consolidation of the industry a round leading European and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB Robotics, says the Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust omer base and undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics. The nature of AB B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past five years it ha s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from 70-75 per cent of s ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from small and medium-si zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We may be supplying o nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr Demark. New markets in clude glass making, different kinds of process applications, and palletising . This effort is backed up by spending on research and development - 10 per cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of the pharmaceutical i ndustry. Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build more capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I RB 6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater flex ibility and capability than rival products. Because of these developments, M r Demark is optimistic about future growth prospects for ABB and the industr y. The view is shared by independent observers. In a report about to be publ ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international market research publishers, tot al world robot sales are forecast to rise from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small size of the industry at the end of the 1980s is a reflection of many of the factors mentioned above. F & S see s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65 per cent last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise from 15 to 20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the rest of the w orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent. The biggest growt h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese producers, but Europe, s ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the company's home base. F & S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m in 1990 to Dollars 687m in 1996, with Germany leading the way. Looking specifically at the European market, F & S comments that the 'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa ckage including sensors, user-friendly software and simple training and inst allation will achieve the best sales penetration.' ABB is probably justified in claiming that it offers more service and support to European buyers than the more product-based approach of the Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet her this will still be true in two years' time. On the other hand Europe, he says, is probably not one of the Japanese producers' priorities, given the better growth prospects in the Asia Pacific region. As for the balance of po wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are growing stronger, the big producers are getting bigger, and the smaller robotics companies, particula rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on niches and ancillary services. If the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s coul d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s. The Financial Times London Page VI Photograph (Omitted ). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark (right): important consolidations (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 66 ============================================== Transaction #: 66 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:10 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 67 ============================================== Transaction #: 67 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:12 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-1242 _AN-ECYC5AHGFT 9403 25 FT 25 MAR 94 / Ingenuity - The FT Engineering Review (2): Untouched by human hands - Intelligent machines are a familiar sight on motor production lines. Now they are expected to turn their 'hands' to the high-speed packing of food and drink / Robots By JOH N DUNN A PLATOON of raw recruits drafted in to the French a rmy to pack combat rations are having to look lively. Up to 10 different men us are needed each month. Each ration consists of 18 items ranging from a pa ck of biscuits and a tin of meat to purification tablets and a miniature sto ve. In order to keep the fighting troops fed, the new recruits have to pack rations at the rate of 24 a minute. The luckless legionnaires are 13 industr ial robots, part of a FFr25m automated packaging and palletising line built for the army by ABB Robotics. Three robots unload boxes of goodies from pall ets on to a conveyor which delivers them to the ration packing station. Here another nine machines, using videos cameras to recognise the right items, p ack them into ration boxes in just 2.5 seconds. The 13 robots stack the rati on boxes on to a pallet for delivery to the barracks. Five different menus c an be put on one pallet to match a barracks' order. David Marshall, responsi ble for customer training at ABB Robotics in Milton Keynes, fervently hopes that the food, drinks and confectionery industry - including even army ratio ns - will become the next big market for robots. 'The whole robot industry h as depended on the automotive industry since day one. Look at the figures - 80 per cent of the world market for robots is in the automotive and automoti ve supply industry. We are looking to the food industry to perform as well a s the automotive industry.' The reason for his optimism is that industrial r obots have become more attractive to the food industry for packing and handl ing, particularly in the light of new health and safety regulations restrict ing the weight of loads that can be lifted manually. They have become faster , reliable, more accurate, and easier to incorporate into a production line. Better motor control software has allowed ABB, for example, to squeeze 25 p er cent more performance out of the same robot. Robots are also simpler to p rogram, operate and maintain. And they can lift bigger loads. They can also be washed down with a hosepipe. And prices are coming down to a level where paybacks are acceptable to the food industry. 'The food, drink and confectio nery industry is surviving on low-cost female labour. Despite their flexibil ity, using people to pack those army rations would have been a nightmare,' s ays Marshall. Also, the industry is looking to cut costs. Although robots ar e flexible and reliable, so far they have been too slow and too expensive, s ays Marshall. But what is good for the food and drinks makers is good for ma nufacturing industry. Mike Wilson, marketing manager at Fanuc Robotics in Co ventry, says of the improvements in robot performance: 'Our new ARC Mate wel ding robot, for example, is 30 per cent cheaper in real terms than a similar model three years ago. And it is 20 per cent faster. A spot welding robot c an now do one spot weld every 1.5 seconds.' Ten years ago, says Wilson, it w ould have taken three. Some of the gain has come from the improved mechanica l performance of robots -faster acceleration and deceleration and better ov ershoot behaviour. And some has come from better integration of the robot in to the process, says Wilson. 'The spot welding gun will begin to close befor e it gets to the weld, for instance.' The load capacity and accuracy of robo ts has come on in leaps and bounds, too. 'The biggest robot we do carries 30 0kg. That was unheard of 10 years ago for an electric robot,' says Wilson. R eliability has also greatly improved, he says. An example is the arc welding robot. Weld wires occasionally get stuck in the solidified weld pool at the end of a weld. A few years ago, as the robot moved away it would rip the we lding torch off the arm. Today, says Wilson, 'wire-stick' sensors prevent th is and automatically send a pulse of current down the wire to burn it free. A similar example of improved capability is 'scratch start'. If a bead of si lica from the flux gets left on the end of the welding wire, it will not str ike an arc and has to be snipped off manually. Today's robot will sense this and scratch the tip of the wire along the component to rub the bead off. It will then go back to the correct place on the weld and start welding. Overa ll, says Wilson, the cost-to-performance ratio of robots today is considerab ly better than a few years ago. Most people now buy a robot 'package' which includes some process engineering expertise and an application software pack age. 'This avoids a lot of programming and makes them quicker to install and easier to operate.' When Vauxhall bought 120 Fanuc welding robots for its n ew Astra line at the Ellesmere Port plant a couple of years ago, it handed t hem on to six companies building the welding lines. 'We designed a software package for Vauxhall that would interface the robots with all the hardware a nd provide an operator interface. That forced all the line builders to use t he robots in the same way. It made maintenance a lot simpler and saved money . We only had to write the software once and copy it six times. Each line bu ilder would have had to develop their own.' Yet despite the advances in robo t technology, Britain has one of the smallest robot populations of all the i ndustrialised nations, around 7,600, compared with Germany's 39,000 and Japa n's staggering 350,000. Even the former USSR has more robots per employee in manufacturing industry than Britain. The problem is the 18 month to two yea r paybacks demanded in Britain, says Wilson, compared with as long as five y ears in Japan. 'It is very difficult to justify any capital expenditure on a n 18 month payback.' John Dunn is deputy editor of The Engineer Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC. P3556 Food Products Machi nery. Types:- TECH Products & Product use. CMMT C omment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 68 ============================================== Transaction #: 68 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:22 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-138 _AN-BENBQACXFT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3 ): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai ded Design, slower growth but healthy By ANDREW BAXT ER THE world market for Cadcam co mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but m any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years. After the phen omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at rates of a me re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to Dataquest, t he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth Dollars 13. 9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995. Most big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the level of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial sector to another. While this means that some markets will see only incremental gro wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful installations are keen to come back and buy more. Much of the growth in the next few years, th erefore, will come from a combination of new products and new applications t o tempt long-standing users, and new customers. In the latter category some UK machine tool companies, for example, are only now replacing their draught sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because the cost of the hardware is f alling but also because their clients demand it. As with robotics, the use o f Cadcam is spreading to smaller manufacturing companies, and particularly t he subcontractors in the automotive and aerospace industries. Mr Roger Smedl ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo International, rem arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than Pounds 1,000 per head in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and chair. Now, with some computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including software, capital exp enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number of design companies h ave gone out of business because they could not finance a switch to computer s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending Pounds 1.5m a year o n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based International Automotiv e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X system from Computervi sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build and prototyping service s to big automotive manufacturers. IAD has been a customer of Computervision , one of the world's leading Cadcam suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes , a UK marketing consultant for Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc h as Rover and Ford are asking their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc am systems are compliant - a trend that is being driven by the desire for co ncurrent engineering (design for manufacturing.) Computervision, part of Pri me Computer, is one of a handful of big players in an industry which continu es to see new niche products and companies emerging, and thus boasts dozens of companies with revenues so small that they hardly register at all. Most o f these are US companies, followed by European groups, with Japan back in th ird place. Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie s, even if sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l arger players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition. An example of the latter was the acquisition by Computervision of Massachusetts-based Premise, whose technology extends Cadcam back to the sketching, or back-of-an-envelo pe stage in the creation of a design. This process, known as conceptual engi neering, is generating widespread interest among manufacturers. There have b een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the late 1980s, caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits, has left sev eral companies by the wayside. The electronic design automation (EDA) sector in particular experienced particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst ems bought Cadnetics in 1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t o its bankruptcy filing in August. In January, the much stronger US company Intergraph snapped up Dazix for Dollars 14m. If the established companies pl ay their cards right, they ought to be able to avoid Dazix's fate. There are significant opportunities in many geographic and product markets, and the b ig suppliers with marketing muscle are best placed to exploit them. Mr Jim T ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35 per cent share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the biggest m arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of reunification. Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power network all of fer scope for Cadcam sales. Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil l see its share slip from 35 per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while Asia will maintain its 28 per cent share. In product sectors, Mr Tully sees the fastest growth in the geographic information systems (GIS) sector, where Intergraph is the undisputed leader. 'There's a great deal of interest in g etting maps on to computer systems,' he says. The mechanical sector, which i s by far the largest, is growing very slowly, but even here there are opport unities. In particular, users in this sector are interested in so-called kno wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An example is a system developed by the small US supplier Rasna, which will design products such as car bumpers vir tually automatically, minimising weight and performing stress analysis on th e basis of a few parameters and criteria. Two other trends look like becomin g increasingly significant for the industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys tems have been mutually incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their system have faced a difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch anging, because of 'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th ird-party Cadcam to be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli er's product line. 'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to a lift to growth,' he says. Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market place opening up - engineering data management. Cadcam, he says, was a reaso nably controlled environment in the early 1980s with the host mainframes loo king after files. But as engineering companies have been forced to move more quickly, it has become more important to find where information resides in a company. Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba sed on a workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for EDM to control data more closely. There is probably no better way of assessi ng the industry's prospects than to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing, the introduction of a new generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th e risk of design mistakes. The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p rogramme supplied by Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st ress analysis system. Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes , Catia will enable Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed completely on computer. The Financial Times Lond on Page II ============= Transaction # 69 ============================================== Transaction #: 69 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:24 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-138 _AN-BENBQACXFT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3 ): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai ded Design, slower growth but healthy By ANDREW BAXT ER THE world market for Cadcam co mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but m any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years. After the phen omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at rates of a me re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to Dataquest, t he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth Dollars 13. 9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995. Most big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the level of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial sector to another. While this means that some markets will see only incremental gro wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful installations are keen to come back and buy more. Much of the growth in the next few years, th erefore, will come from a combination of new products and new applications t o tempt long-standing users, and new customers. In the latter category some UK machine tool companies, for example, are only now replacing their draught sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because the cost of the hardware is f alling but also because their clients demand it. As with robotics, the use o f Cadcam is spreading to smaller manufacturing companies, and particularly t he subcontractors in the automotive and aerospace industries. Mr Roger Smedl ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo International, rem arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than Pounds 1,000 per head in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and chair. Now, with some computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including software, capital exp enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number of design companies h ave gone out of business because they could not finance a switch to computer s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending Pounds 1.5m a year o n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based International Automotiv e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X system from Computervi sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build and prototyping service s to big automotive manufacturers. IAD has been a customer of Computervision , one of the world's leading Cadcam suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes , a UK marketing consultant for Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc h as Rover and Ford are asking their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc am systems are compliant - a trend that is being driven by the desire for co ncurrent engineering (design for manufacturing.) Computervision, part of Pri me Computer, is one of a handful of big players in an industry which continu es to see new niche products and companies emerging, and thus boasts dozens of companies with revenues so small that they hardly register at all. Most o f these are US companies, followed by European groups, with Japan back in th ird place. Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie s, even if sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l arger players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition. An example of the latter was the acquisition by Computervision of Massachusetts-based Premise, whose technology extends Cadcam back to the sketching, or back-of-an-envelo pe stage in the creation of a design. This process, known as conceptual engi neering, is generating widespread interest among manufacturers. There have b een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the late 1980s, caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits, has left sev eral companies by the wayside. The electronic design automation (EDA) sector in particular experienced particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst ems bought Cadnetics in 1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t o its bankruptcy filing in August. In January, the much stronger US company Intergraph snapped up Dazix for Dollars 14m. If the established companies pl ay their cards right, they ought to be able to avoid Dazix's fate. There are significant opportunities in many geographic and product markets, and the b ig suppliers with marketing muscle are best placed to exploit them. Mr Jim T ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35 per cent share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the biggest m arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of reunification. Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power network all of fer scope for Cadcam sales. Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil l see its share slip from 35 per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while Asia will maintain its 28 per cent share. In product sectors, Mr Tully sees the fastest growth in the geographic information systems (GIS) sector, where Intergraph is the undisputed leader. 'There's a great deal of interest in g etting maps on to computer systems,' he says. The mechanical sector, which i s by far the largest, is growing very slowly, but even here there are opport unities. In particular, users in this sector are interested in so-called kno wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An example is a system developed by the small US supplier Rasna, which will design products such as car bumpers vir tually automatically, minimising weight and performing stress analysis on th e basis of a few parameters and criteria. Two other trends look like becomin g increasingly significant for the industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys tems have been mutually incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their system have faced a difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch anging, because of 'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th ird-party Cadcam to be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli er's product line. 'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to a lift to growth,' he says. Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market place opening up - engineering data management. Cadcam, he says, was a reaso nably controlled environment in the early 1980s with the host mainframes loo king after files. But as engineering companies have been forced to move more quickly, it has become more important to find where information resides in a company. Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba sed on a workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for EDM to control data more closely. There is probably no better way of assessi ng the industry's prospects than to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing, the introduction of a new generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th e risk of design mistakes. The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p rogramme supplied by Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st ress analysis system. Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes , Catia will enable Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed completely on computer. The Financial Times Lond on Page II ============= Transaction # 70 ============================================== Transaction #: 70 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:32 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-2017 _AN-DCXAWABGFT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Survey of Information and Communicatio ns Technology (23): Boost for productivity - Manufacturing industry By PEGGY SALZ-TRAUTMAN AS manufacturing ind ustry has sought in recent years to boost production and cut costs, it has o ften turned to the technocrats for solutions. Managers have believed that in vestment in information systems (IS) and manufacturing technologies alone wo uld improve the production process - the rest would take care of itself. Thi s limited view, according to the Frankfurt-based consultancy Diebold Germany , has led to further problems for industry - 'technology has changed the man ufacturing process forever, but manufacturers have failed to change with it, ' comments the managing director of Diebold Germany, Mr Wolfgang Dernbach. M anagement has insisted on 'putting the spotlight on automation,' he adds, 'b ut has often forgotten where human resources can and must fit in.' Computeri sed information offers tantalising benefits in the automated processes used in manufacturing. Plant managers have been increasingly excited by innovatio ns such as MRP (materials resource planning); JIT ('just-in-time' updating o f stock levels); OPT (optimised production technology); EDI (electronic data interchange - the exchange of data between manufacturers, suppliers and cus tomers); CAD, CAM and CAE (computer-aided design, manufacturing and engineer ing); and PIM (product information management), plus other buzzwords describ ed below. Wolfgang Dernbach argues that if manufacturing technology is to pr ovide a company with really productive solutions, 'then it had better be ins talled in such a way as to actively include - and not exclude - the workforc e.' In short, man and not the machine must be at the centre. At the Regensbu rg plant of BMW, Germany's leading motor manufacturer, Johann Schrafl, the h ead of product engineering, has a policy of 'targeted automation' which make s good business sense. In the late 1980s, Schrafl and his colleagues began t o look for ways to make the assembly line more 'intelligent' and, at the sam e time, relieve workers of tedious tasks. Rather than automate the entire pr oduction process, Schrafl chose to 'selectively' install manufacturing techn ologies without bypassing the individual. 'Machines will always make mistake s,' he stresses. 'And people will always be necessary to correct them. To he lp accomplish the company goal, BMW purchased a system from Robert Bosch, on e of Germany's leading electronics companies. The system relies on an electr onic spindle mechanism to attach and tighten all five screws on each vehicle wheel at one time - and 'feel' if the screws are tight enough. This improve ment cuts production time per vehicle by 1.4 minutes which translates into c ash-savings for the factory of DM200,000 a year. In addition, workers are sp ared having to lift a machine weighing 50lbs to tighten screws. And the Bosc h system has built-in quality controls. Whereas an earlier system at Regensb urg only indicated problems with warning lights, leaving the worker to figur e out which wheels had to be corrected, the Bosch system records mistakes in a production protocol and prints a sticker which is attached to a quality-c ontrol folder that accompanies each car start to finish on the assembly line . However, Schrafl sees little reason to be 'euphoric' about the advantages of automation. New manufacturing technologies, he emphasises, also have thei r 'drawbacks.' In short, they break down and make mistakes - 'but improvemen ts in the interface are serving to make intelligent solutions more attractiv e to implement.' For complex industrial projects, analysts argue that the em phasis should be more product information management (PIM) than just aspects of factory automation. Especially in the area of electronics and telecoms, the final version of a product depends on the priorities of managers, purcha sing departments, logistics supervisors, quality-control groups and inventor y directors, as well as designers and engineers. Because of the spread of PC s and workstations, more than 50 per cent of product information is in elect ronic form - data which can be easily accessed and amended via data transfer networks. But the more accessible the data, the greater the risk that the w rong data can find its way into the product development and manufacturing pr ocesses, bypassing formal release procedures. When this happens, engineering changes and re-working is then needed, research budgets over-run and qualit y declines. In the end, the product fails to reach its market on time - and the manufacturer pays the price. Rather than merely introduce more automatio n into its production processes, GPT, a leading maker of telecom equipment i n the UK, decided to rethink its entire design and manufacturing routine. As a result, the company in 1990 developed its own engineering manufacturing d ata system, (EMDS). This set of computer-integrated applications was designe d to provide the company with a common framework and a single access to all kinds of information, regardless of platform. In short, EMDS manages all des ign files, product configurations, engineering changes and component databas es throughout the product life-cycle. For GPT, engineering efficiency execut ive Mr Les Brooks, the EMDS allows the company to 'successfully manage chang e.' Indeed, he adds, 'we are able to make sure we design and build products right the first time and can properly manage the data generated by both proc esses.' Moreover, EMDS plays a significant role in company strategy, he says . The pay-off for GPT so far is a 'marked improvement' in the time-to-market and increased capacity to realise concurrent engineering - a practice where all functions involved in delivering a product to the customer (from R&D to field service) participate in the development process. Indeed, analysts agr ee, GPT is a market leader and well advanced in a ten-year development proje ct, in collaboration with Siemens, to produce the next generation of telecom switching systems. Sherpa, a leading software and services supplier, based in San Jose, California, is also the world's leading PIM supplier and the co mpany which provided GPT with the software for its EMDS. Sherpa believes tha t PIM is the 'next logical step' to CAD, CAM and CAE. According to Sherpa's European marketing manager, Doug Macdonald, PIM underlines the concept of 'a gile manufacturing' - the flexibility which companies seek. 'Many large comp anies have invested 'up to the hilt' in computer-aided design and similar to ols, but are stuck struggling to manage this information manually,' he says. Not all manufacturers can manage their information electronically, therefor e 'a lot of serious, costly mistakes are developing,' he adds. For example, a large electronics company lost much time and money after engineers sent ou tdated product information to the factory floor, resulting in the manufactur e of several hundred useless printed circuit boards - 'problems like this ca n happen in even the best-managed companies,' he notes. For this reason, Mac donald stresses, Sherpa concentrates only on supplying systems which integra te fully with a company's design and manufacturing systems. ACCORDING to the US-based consultancy CIMdata, a company specialising in product data manage ment (PDM), which is similar to PIN, and CAD/CAM technology and market issue s, Europe has the world's highest growth potential for PDM systems and servi ces. By 1995, European PDM revenues could exceed Dollars 250m, similar to th e figure for suppliers in North America. Sherpa will benefit considerably fr om the trend to more 'intelligent' data management, says the consultancy. Lo oking ahead, business process re-engineering, with the help of new, integrat ed production technologies, plus improved information systems, is a trend th at will spread rapidly to manufacturing processes, suggests Michael Bruce, a director of the London-based Moore Stephens Business Technology Group. Mean while, Japan's approach to automation generally seeks to avoid imbalances be tween new production technologies and manufacturing processes. Fanuc of Japa n, a leader in the automation of machine tools, supports its internal produc tion process with highly efficient management. Company engineers, clad in br ight yellow uniforms, carry out research in highly automated laboratories wh ile product managers oversee operations in high tech factories. In the elect ronics plant, for example, robots and computers are assigned tasks such as p arts' inspection, plus assembly and testing of printed circuit boards. In ot her futuristic plants, unmanned vehicles and robots assist each other in the production of machinery. Indeed, robots are at work -making robots. The co mpany, according to one analyst, offers a glimpse 'of where technology is ta king us in the years to come . . . the prime example of the truly automated factory and the outcome of a fully rational manufacturing process.' For Bruc e Potts, Fanuc's robotics Europe executive vice-president, based in Dusseldo rf, the 'revolution' in factory automation is in full swing because the robo t control system is becoming more user-friendly. According to the Internatio nal Federation of Robotics, the world industrial robot population in 1991 st ood at around 530,000 units. To date, Fanuc Robotics serve more than 2,000 c ustomers, including leading players in the automobile, machinery, food and p harmaceutical industries. But, says Mr Potts, computer-controlled robots and factory automation alone are not the answer if a manufacturer's problems if the basic production process is inefficient. 'We have to look at the entire process,' he adds. 'Then we can look for a solution.' Countrie s:- XAZ World. Industries:- P99 Nonclassif iable Establishments. Types:- TECH Processes. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pa ge XI ============= Transaction # 71 ============================================== Transaction #: 71 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:34 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-2017 _AN-DCXAWABGFT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Survey of Information and Communicatio ns Technology (23): Boost for productivity - Manufacturing industry By PEGGY SALZ-TRAUTMAN AS manufacturing ind ustry has sought in recent years to boost production and cut costs, it has o ften turned to the technocrats for solutions. Managers have believed that in vestment in information systems (IS) and manufacturing technologies alone wo uld improve the production process - the rest would take care of itself. Thi s limited view, according to the Frankfurt-based consultancy Diebold Germany , has led to further problems for industry - 'technology has changed the man ufacturing process forever, but manufacturers have failed to change with it, ' comments the managing director of Diebold Germany, Mr Wolfgang Dernbach. M anagement has insisted on 'putting the spotlight on automation,' he adds, 'b ut has often forgotten where human resources can and must fit in.' Computeri sed information offers tantalising benefits in the automated processes used in manufacturing. Plant managers have been increasingly excited by innovatio ns such as MRP (materials resource planning); JIT ('just-in-time' updating o f stock levels); OPT (optimised production technology); EDI (electronic data interchange - the exchange of data between manufacturers, suppliers and cus tomers); CAD, CAM and CAE (computer-aided design, manufacturing and engineer ing); and PIM (product information management), plus other buzzwords describ ed below. Wolfgang Dernbach argues that if manufacturing technology is to pr ovide a company with really productive solutions, 'then it had better be ins talled in such a way as to actively include - and not exclude - the workforc e.' In short, man and not the machine must be at the centre. At the Regensbu rg plant of BMW, Germany's leading motor manufacturer, Johann Schrafl, the h ead of product engineering, has a policy of 'targeted automation' which make s good business sense. In the late 1980s, Schrafl and his colleagues began t o look for ways to make the assembly line more 'intelligent' and, at the sam e time, relieve workers of tedious tasks. Rather than automate the entire pr oduction process, Schrafl chose to 'selectively' install manufacturing techn ologies without bypassing the individual. 'Machines will always make mistake s,' he stresses. 'And people will always be necessary to correct them. To he lp accomplish the company goal, BMW purchased a system from Robert Bosch, on e of Germany's leading electronics companies. The system relies on an electr onic spindle mechanism to attach and tighten all five screws on each vehicle wheel at one time - and 'feel' if the screws are tight enough. This improve ment cuts production time per vehicle by 1.4 minutes which translates into c ash-savings for the factory of DM200,000 a year. In addition, workers are sp ared having to lift a machine weighing 50lbs to tighten screws. And the Bosc h system has built-in quality controls. Whereas an earlier system at Regensb urg only indicated problems with warning lights, leaving the worker to figur e out which wheels had to be corrected, the Bosch system records mistakes in a production protocol and prints a sticker which is attached to a quality-c ontrol folder that accompanies each car start to finish on the assembly line . However, Schrafl sees little reason to be 'euphoric' about the advantages of automation. New manufacturing technologies, he emphasises, also have thei r 'drawbacks.' In short, they break down and make mistakes - 'but improvemen ts in the interface are serving to make intelligent solutions more attractiv e to implement.' For complex industrial projects, analysts argue that the em phasis should be more product information management (PIM) than just aspects of factory automation. Especially in the area of electronics and telecoms, the final version of a product depends on the priorities of managers, purcha sing departments, logistics supervisors, quality-control groups and inventor y directors, as well as designers and engineers. Because of the spread of PC s and workstations, more than 50 per cent of product information is in elect ronic form - data which can be easily accessed and amended via data transfer networks. But the more accessible the data, the greater the risk that the w rong data can find its way into the product development and manufacturing pr ocesses, bypassing formal release procedures. When this happens, engineering changes and re-working is then needed, research budgets over-run and qualit y declines. In the end, the product fails to reach its market on time - and the manufacturer pays the price. Rather than merely introduce more automatio n into its production processes, GPT, a leading maker of telecom equipment i n the UK, decided to rethink its entire design and manufacturing routine. As a result, the company in 1990 developed its own engineering manufacturing d ata system, (EMDS). This set of computer-integrated applications was designe d to provide the company with a common framework and a single access to all kinds of information, regardless of platform. In short, EMDS manages all des ign files, product configurations, engineering changes and component databas es throughout the product life-cycle. For GPT, engineering efficiency execut ive Mr Les Brooks, the EMDS allows the company to 'successfully manage chang e.' Indeed, he adds, 'we are able to make sure we design and build products right the first time and can properly manage the data generated by both proc esses.' Moreover, EMDS plays a significant role in company strategy, he says . The pay-off for GPT so far is a 'marked improvement' in the time-to-market and increased capacity to realise concurrent engineering - a practice where all functions involved in delivering a product to the customer (from R&D to field service) participate in the development process. Indeed, analysts agr ee, GPT is a market leader and well advanced in a ten-year development proje ct, in collaboration with Siemens, to produce the next generation of telecom switching systems. Sherpa, a leading software and services supplier, based in San Jose, California, is also the world's leading PIM supplier and the co mpany which provided GPT with the software for its EMDS. Sherpa believes tha t PIM is the 'next logical step' to CAD, CAM and CAE. According to Sherpa's European marketing manager, Doug Macdonald, PIM underlines the concept of 'a gile manufacturing' - the flexibility which companies seek. 'Many large comp anies have invested 'up to the hilt' in computer-aided design and similar to ols, but are stuck struggling to manage this information manually,' he says. Not all manufacturers can manage their information electronically, therefor e 'a lot of serious, costly mistakes are developing,' he adds. For example, a large electronics company lost much time and money after engineers sent ou tdated product information to the factory floor, resulting in the manufactur e of several hundred useless printed circuit boards - 'problems like this ca n happen in even the best-managed companies,' he notes. For this reason, Mac donald stresses, Sherpa concentrates only on supplying systems which integra te fully with a company's design and manufacturing systems. ACCORDING to the US-based consultancy CIMdata, a company specialising in product data manage ment (PDM), which is similar to PIN, and CAD/CAM technology and market issue s, Europe has the world's highest growth potential for PDM systems and servi ces. By 1995, European PDM revenues could exceed Dollars 250m, similar to th e figure for suppliers in North America. Sherpa will benefit considerably fr om the trend to more 'intelligent' data management, says the consultancy. Lo oking ahead, business process re-engineering, with the help of new, integrat ed production technologies, plus improved information systems, is a trend th at will spread rapidly to manufacturing processes, suggests Michael Bruce, a director of the London-based Moore Stephens Business Technology Group. Mean while, Japan's approach to automation generally seeks to avoid imbalances be tween new production technologies and manufacturing processes. Fanuc of Japa n, a leader in the automation of machine tools, supports its internal produc tion process with highly efficient management. Company engineers, clad in br ight yellow uniforms, carry out research in highly automated laboratories wh ile product managers oversee operations in high tech factories. In the elect ronics plant, for example, robots and computers are assigned tasks such as p arts' inspection, plus assembly and testing of printed circuit boards. In ot her futuristic plants, unmanned vehicles and robots assist each other in the production of machinery. Indeed, robots are at work -making robots. The co mpany, according to one analyst, offers a glimpse 'of where technology is ta king us in the years to come . . . the prime example of the truly automated factory and the outcome of a fully rational manufacturing process.' For Bruc e Potts, Fanuc's robotics Europe executive vice-president, based in Dusseldo rf, the 'revolution' in factory automation is in full swing because the robo t control system is becoming more user-friendly. According to the Internatio nal Federation of Robotics, the world industrial robot population in 1991 st ood at around 530,000 units. To date, Fanuc Robotics serve more than 2,000 c ustomers, including leading players in the automobile, machinery, food and p harmaceutical industries. But, says Mr Potts, computer-controlled robots and factory automation alone are not the answer if a manufacturer's problems if the basic production process is inefficient. 'We have to look at the entire process,' he adds. 'Then we can look for a solution.' Countrie s:- XAZ World. Industries:- P99 Nonclassif iable Establishments. Types:- TECH Processes. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pa ge XI ============= Transaction # 72 ============================================== Transaction #: 72 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:42 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-135 _AN-BENBQAC0FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6 ): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce By LORI VALIGRA TOKYO IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa cturer replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se t up full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from g etting lonely. The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there are a few showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer' s factory near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact ories are realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f ocus their research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t he ever increasing number of machines working by their side. In past years m anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving machines to raise production. They focused on maximising the use of people, money, time and ma terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the complex machinery b eginning to surround them. 'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin es, so the man-machine interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats uyama, a manager at Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo. 'Japan ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production has s hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,' he sa ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery to be more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example, weldi ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as fuzzy l ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as finding an operational failure, through inferences, as humans do. The escalating skille d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth rate and a more afflue nt and highly educated society, makes robots an important component of facto ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some companies. Strong competition i n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of investment in labour- saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting tools, processing mach ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force is expected to be 0.8 per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall off by half to 0.4 per cent until 2000, according to Japanese government statistics. During that t ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual economic growth rate. 'T o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says Mr Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association (Jir a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the switch from a manufacturing to a service economy. Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer blue-collar workers in manufacturing b y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo ung people are a different breed of worker from those who laboured long hour s for little pay to build Japan's industrial miracle. They want to avoid so- called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai' (dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard) . 'Older men were very patient and had the Bushido (warrior) morale, but it is hard to find these people today,' says Mr Matsuyama. Replacing them with machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces programmable controlle rs and other electronics products, sees the improvements that can be made in factory automation as almost limitless and including diagnosing system fail ures and other management tasks. The improvements span a broad factory autom ation market valued at almost Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a product from design through production and inspection. The important compon ents of automating a factory are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of the market, as well as computer-aided design and manufacturing software and equipment, industrial robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse s, computers and automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou t a plant site. Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod uction components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin e tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power . Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16 per cent held by Germany. Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki, for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste r, in the UK which produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a ccording to industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing robot market is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst allations worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5 per cent. Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni cs and other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn ology, product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese manuf acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is litt le competition from imports. The electronics industry is the biggest user of automation technology. At its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To kyo, Toshiba uses its own laptop computers for design, development and assem bly of new Toshiba laptops. The laptops are used to compute how easily a new computer model can be assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget her one notebook-size Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important, because the company is making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s pan of each new product is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition . 'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is al ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga, who heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome. How ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a Jap anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it increasingly difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba replicates about 70 per cent of design work from current models in new ones. While it took Toshi ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops from scratch, it took only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook. Though its factory is about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the company often comment about the number of people still present on the manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s ays that with the fast-paced product life cycles, humans are needed. 'There are problems with automated systems. They can't catch up with new technology , so humans are acting as universal super robots,' he adds. Fuzzy logic may help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic, software that can help make a decision from unclear information, will help increase the versat ility of robots in the future by affording better control of their movements . Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed a test robot that can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd). In a New Year's address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president, identified fuzzy logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994, more than 20 pe r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of fuzzy logic. Accord ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As part of a computer-in tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in production and in mana ging the company. 'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person where computers are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge neration plant's circulation control system to clean water and to make decis ions. Perhaps the Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide d with these systems,' he says. Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots and other components, spell another technological advantage for Japan in th e future: being able to change small-scale production quickly, so that multi ple products can be produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya ma predicts Japanese manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale production, which is a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility. Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense that market information should be more effectively connected with the produc tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible production without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in Osaka. The com pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which more c losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they are r efined. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 73 ============================================== Transaction #: 73 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:27:44 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-135 _AN-BENBQAC0FT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6 ): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce By LORI VALIGRA TOKYO IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa cturer replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se t up full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from g etting lonely. The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there are a few showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer' s factory near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact ories are realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f ocus their research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t he ever increasing number of machines working by their side. In past years m anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving machines to raise production. They focused on maximising the use of people, money, time and ma terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the complex machinery b eginning to surround them. 'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin es, so the man-machine interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats uyama, a manager at Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo. 'Japan ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production has s hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,' he sa ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery to be more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example, weldi ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as fuzzy l ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as finding an operational failure, through inferences, as humans do. The escalating skille d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth rate and a more afflue nt and highly educated society, makes robots an important component of facto ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some companies. Strong competition i n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of investment in labour- saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting tools, processing mach ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force is expected to be 0.8 per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall off by half to 0.4 per cent until 2000, according to Japanese government statistics. During that t ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual economic growth rate. 'T o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says Mr Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association (Jir a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the switch from a manufacturing to a service economy. Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer blue-collar workers in manufacturing b y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo ung people are a different breed of worker from those who laboured long hour s for little pay to build Japan's industrial miracle. They want to avoid so- called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai' (dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard) . 'Older men were very patient and had the Bushido (warrior) morale, but it is hard to find these people today,' says Mr Matsuyama. Replacing them with machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces programmable controlle rs and other electronics products, sees the improvements that can be made in factory automation as almost limitless and including diagnosing system fail ures and other management tasks. The improvements span a broad factory autom ation market valued at almost Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a product from design through production and inspection. The important compon ents of automating a factory are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of the market, as well as computer-aided design and manufacturing software and equipment, industrial robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse s, computers and automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou t a plant site. Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod uction components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin e tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power . Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16 per cent held by Germany. Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki, for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste r, in the UK which produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a ccording to industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing robot market is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst allations worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5 per cent. Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni cs and other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn ology, product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese manuf acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is litt le competition from imports. The electronics industry is the biggest user of automation technology. At its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To kyo, Toshiba uses its own laptop computers for design, development and assem bly of new Toshiba laptops. The laptops are used to compute how easily a new computer model can be assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget her one notebook-size Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important, because the company is making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s pan of each new product is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition . 'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is al ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga, who heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome. How ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a Jap anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it increasingly difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba replicates about 70 per cent of design work from current models in new ones. While it took Toshi ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops from scratch, it took only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook. Though its factory is about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the company often comment about the number of people still present on the manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s ays that with the fast-paced product life cycles, humans are needed. 'There are problems with automated systems. They can't catch up with new technology , so humans are acting as universal super robots,' he adds. Fuzzy logic may help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic, software that can help make a decision from unclear information, will help increase the versat ility of robots in the future by affording better control of their movements . Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed a test robot that can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd). In a New Year's address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president, identified fuzzy logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994, more than 20 pe r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of fuzzy logic. Accord ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As part of a computer-in tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in production and in mana ging the company. 'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person where computers are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge neration plant's circulation control system to clean water and to make decis ions. Perhaps the Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide d with these systems,' he says. Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots and other components, spell another technological advantage for Japan in th e future: being able to change small-scale production quickly, so that multi ple products can be produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya ma predicts Japanese manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale production, which is a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility. Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense that market information should be more effectively connected with the produc tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible production without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in Osaka. The com pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which more c losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they are r efined. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 74 ============================================== Transaction #: 74 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:02 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8066 _AN-EHSD0AB7FT 9408 19 FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and science By ANDREW FISHER Ever sinc e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the future, the idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed people. Today's computers, however impressive their calculating and processing power, are f ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed to mimic the brain and recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are penetrating deeply into the practical world. Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs t carried out in the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that the technology came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range from the monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin g, brewing or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f inancial markets and trends in consumer demand. Because of their complexity and the very term neural networks - which tends to conjure up the image of a mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen - such systems have met with sce pticism as well as approval. Some specialists prefer not to use the words wh en talking to customers. 'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if we say 'neural network',' says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London -based Right Information Systems, which produces software for commercial use at prices ranging from Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black box. Yet it's a bundle of equations like any other method.' These equations are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on neurons in the human brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons (nerve cells) linked in a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and memorise information and images from all the senses in a way computers cannot possibly match. Neural networks have only a few hundred or thousand neurons (or processing units). These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed c alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data - an d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human brain can supply. Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t o tricky problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a nd how effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing pr ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool in the toolbox.' The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & Sullivan, the US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo rk market is expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov er this decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e very area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate d with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable breakthro ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten character r ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.' As well as big names in the electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi and Intel, a host of smaller, specialised companies are working on neural computers and applicat ions. In many cases, neural networks are combined with other types of comput er technology such as genetic algorithms (copying biological mechanisms to p roduce evolving solutions) and rule induction systems (generating rules for specific tasks). In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy logic to help deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee n used to build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als o produced a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu y and sell Tokyo-quoted stocks. Both systems yielded a high degree of accura cy. Because of the extra analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m any banks and financial institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha nge and equity trading as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki ng, fraud detection and mortgage evaluation. Thus much of the recent emphasi s has been on applications in finance, although many bankers are hesitant ab out entrusting large sums of money to the judgments of a computer. Since it is very hard to work out why a neural network comes up with a particular ans wer or recommendation, this wariness is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact ors can come into play which have not been put into the system. Even so, fin ancial applications will continue to play an important role in this market. Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the worldwide ne ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by which time t he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn). Industrial uses sh ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with the defence share falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other applications, the medic al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per cent. Among the most p romising fields for neural network technology are retailing and market resea rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not to want to talk a bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market modelling for Kraft General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of tremendous use in he lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and the pricing and market ing of products. 'We build models of things like the way in which weather in Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact of coffee prices on con sumption.' The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ es of statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c offee price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. ' In coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price g yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models. On a narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central Resear ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure greater accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing customer records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which people ar e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other goods and whi ch are likely to respond to promotions. This has led to considerable savings on mailing costs. 'If you're going to look at market data analysis and see how to earn money, you have to recognise that some improvements can result i n a heck of a lot of money,' says Jeremy Severwright, business development m anager at CRL's advanced computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th rough very quickly.' Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us ers who can extract more profit from customers by using neural network techn iques. But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the c ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent s ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of self-lear ning robots for the office and home. Currently, however, neural network expe rts are preoccupied with the more basic concern that industry should adopt t he technology more widely. 'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says Suran Goonatilake, a research fellow at University College London. In Britai n, the DTI has been spreading the message through its awareness programme wh ich has spawned a number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan still have the lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl y. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- F orecast growth in neural networks market Revenue Growth Rate (%) ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 na 22.7 31.7 41. 4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: Frost & Sullivan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Co untries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P3571 Elec tronic Computers. P7372 Prepackaged Software. Types:- < TP>TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Mar ket shares. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 75 ============================================== Transaction #: 75 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:19 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4411 _AN-CFEA9AEHFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly By CHRIS BARRIE ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo st difficult to build and the chances are that he or she will name the engin e or the car body. In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive , task is when engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and fixed in the painted car body - a process known as final assembly. To please the customer the car company must offer many different options on each basi c car. Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line has to cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics, equipment, and tinted glass. Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo od plant on Merseyside. There are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit ted to this car depending on colour and specification. Similarly there are u p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60 variations in the door mirr ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the door trim panels according to the model mix being built at the plant. The complexity of choosing the righ t component and fitting it into the right model has left these areas of the factory dominated by men and women, not machines. It has also made this part of car construction the area where, on the surface, greatest efficiency gai ns should be possible. The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an international study carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog y - found that final assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va lue of the car, a significant proportion. Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho urs of assembly time per car to carry out final assembly, compared with four hours to paint the car and five to weld it together (direct labour only). B y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body cons truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese. There is no escape from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on final assembly. Custo mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options. And in any case it is n ot the complexity itself which makes a factory efficient. The IMVP study sug gested that the factories coping with the most complex cars were also the mo st productive, and they were Japanese. So what are the solutions to making f inal assembly more efficient? Needless to say, companies are choosing differ ent ways ahead. The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has already been done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men. Machines will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta ndards. The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f ewer people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan, m achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not. There is certa inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps carried out by automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In Japan the equivale nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per cent of its actio n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan. Automation suppliers are co nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai Warn, Brussels-based manag er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics, says automation is just bec oming cost-effective in final assembly. He estimates that the cost of robots has fallen by 30 per cent in the past five years while their performance ha s risen by the same amount over the same period. Mr Warn estimates that the real advance in automation will come in the next two to three years as new c ars come on stream having been designed with automation in mind. But it is w orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you make it ea sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at automating fin al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears to have ruled it out as still not cost effective. But there are companies that have automa ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo car on highly automated lines at Cassino i n Italy. The factory has more than 100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor e than 1200 wire guided trollies and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th e most highly automated factory in the world. Similarly, Volkswagen builds t he Golf on highly-automated lines, while Citroen uses automation to carry ou t large numbers of final assembly tasks on the XM executive car at Rennes in France. But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of sop histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet the c omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to indirect c osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems. Professor Dan Jones of Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will only be cost-effective if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means Fiat will need another l ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning Tipo production on and off according to fluctuating demand. Similarly, automation can inhibit new m odel design by forcing engineers to cut costs by using tooling installed for the old model. The Volkswagen Golf is often cited as a case in point. Inste ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to automat ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates tasks tha t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation should be us ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the labour-intensive pinchpoin ts on a production line where workforce numbers may be reduced but the autom ation left with an impossibly complicated job - and the people with an impos sibly boring set of simple jobs. Instead of being concerned with machines, s ome managers are turning to two sets of people for help: the workforce and t he supplier. Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective . Rover achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i t went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the manageme nt skill in running the factory efficiently. All car companies will simplify their own tasks by asking suppliers to do more. Instead of assembling cars under one roof, car companies will receive built-up modules such as dashboar ds, seats or mouldings ready for installation into the car. But whichever ro ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right. Automation can be hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 76 ============================================== Transaction #: 76 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:39 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4411 _AN-CFEA9AEHFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly By CHRIS BARRIE ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo st difficult to build and the chances are that he or she will name the engin e or the car body. In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive , task is when engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and fixed in the painted car body - a process known as final assembly. To please the customer the car company must offer many different options on each basi c car. Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line has to cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics, equipment, and tinted glass. Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo od plant on Merseyside. There are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit ted to this car depending on colour and specification. Similarly there are u p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60 variations in the door mirr ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the door trim panels according to the model mix being built at the plant. The complexity of choosing the righ t component and fitting it into the right model has left these areas of the factory dominated by men and women, not machines. It has also made this part of car construction the area where, on the surface, greatest efficiency gai ns should be possible. The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an international study carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog y - found that final assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va lue of the car, a significant proportion. Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho urs of assembly time per car to carry out final assembly, compared with four hours to paint the car and five to weld it together (direct labour only). B y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body cons truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese. There is no escape from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on final assembly. Custo mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options. And in any case it is n ot the complexity itself which makes a factory efficient. The IMVP study sug gested that the factories coping with the most complex cars were also the mo st productive, and they were Japanese. So what are the solutions to making f inal assembly more efficient? Needless to say, companies are choosing differ ent ways ahead. The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has already been done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men. Machines will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta ndards. The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f ewer people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan, m achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not. There is certa inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps carried out by automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In Japan the equivale nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per cent of its actio n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan. Automation suppliers are co nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai Warn, Brussels-based manag er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics, says automation is just bec oming cost-effective in final assembly. He estimates that the cost of robots has fallen by 30 per cent in the past five years while their performance ha s risen by the same amount over the same period. Mr Warn estimates that the real advance in automation will come in the next two to three years as new c ars come on stream having been designed with automation in mind. But it is w orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you make it ea sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at automating fin al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears to have ruled it out as still not cost effective. But there are companies that have automa ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo car on highly automated lines at Cassino i n Italy. The factory has more than 100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor e than 1200 wire guided trollies and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th e most highly automated factory in the world. Similarly, Volkswagen builds t he Golf on highly-automated lines, while Citroen uses automation to carry ou t large numbers of final assembly tasks on the XM executive car at Rennes in France. But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of sop histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet the c omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to indirect c osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems. Professor Dan Jones of Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will only be cost-effective if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means Fiat will need another l ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning Tipo production on and off according to fluctuating demand. Similarly, automation can inhibit new m odel design by forcing engineers to cut costs by using tooling installed for the old model. The Volkswagen Golf is often cited as a case in point. Inste ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to automat ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates tasks tha t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation should be us ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the labour-intensive pinchpoin ts on a production line where workforce numbers may be reduced but the autom ation left with an impossibly complicated job - and the people with an impos sibly boring set of simple jobs. Instead of being concerned with machines, s ome managers are turning to two sets of people for help: the workforce and t he supplier. Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective . Rover achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i t went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the manageme nt skill in running the factory efficiently. All car companies will simplify their own tasks by asking suppliers to do more. Instead of assembling cars under one roof, car companies will receive built-up modules such as dashboar ds, seats or mouldings ready for installation into the car. But whichever ro ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right. Automation can be hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 77 ============================================== Transaction #: 77 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:42 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4411 _AN-CFEA9AEHFT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (9): Scope for more machinery - Final Assembly By CHRIS BARRIE ASK A CAR buyer which bit of his car was mo st difficult to build and the chances are that he or she will name the engin e or the car body. In fact, the most time-consuming, and therefore expensive , task is when engine, gearbox, suspension and interior trim are placed and fixed in the painted car body - a process known as final assembly. To please the customer the car company must offer many different options on each basi c car. Apart from different engine sizes and gearboxes, the production line has to cater for a myriad of differences in interior trim: colours, fabrics, equipment, and tinted glass. Take Ford's latest Escort, built at the Halewo od plant on Merseyside. There are more than 100 variations in the bumper fit ted to this car depending on colour and specification. Similarly there are u p to 90 variations in the body side moulding, 60 variations in the door mirr ors, and between 140 and 260 variations in the door trim panels according to the model mix being built at the plant. The complexity of choosing the righ t component and fitting it into the right model has left these areas of the factory dominated by men and women, not machines. It has also made this part of car construction the area where, on the surface, greatest efficiency gai ns should be possible. The International Motor Vehicle Programme (IVMP) - an international study carried out by the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog y - found that final assembly accounts for about 15 per cent of the final va lue of the car, a significant proportion. Typically in Europe it takes 15 ho urs of assembly time per car to carry out final assembly, compared with four hours to paint the car and five to weld it together (direct labour only). B y contrast, according to the IMVP, a typical Japanese plant needs six hours of final assembly per car, two hours for paint and three hours for body cons truction - a clear competitive advantage to the Japanese. There is no escape from the complexity of the tasks to be carried out on final assembly. Custo mers will continue wanting more, not fewer, options. And in any case it is n ot the complexity itself which makes a factory efficient. The IMVP study sug gested that the factories coping with the most complex cars were also the mo st productive, and they were Japanese. So what are the solutions to making f inal assembly more efficient? Needless to say, companies are choosing differ ent ways ahead. The most obvious answer is to do to final assembly what has already been done elsewhere in the car factory: use machines instead of men. Machines will work flat out all day every day to uniformly high quality sta ndards. The rising cost of labour makes automation more attractive. And as f ewer people want to work in car factories these days, especially in Japan, m achines are having to be used, whether cost effective or not. There is certa inly scope for more machinery. The proportion of direct steps carried out by automation in Europe is, on average, just 3 per cent. In Japan the equivale nt is 7 per cent. The typical European bodyshop has 77 per cent of its actio n automated, compared with 86 per cent in Japan. Automation suppliers are co nfident that they can provide the answers. Mr Kai Warn, Brussels-based manag er of automotive sales support for ABB Robotics, says automation is just bec oming cost-effective in final assembly. He estimates that the cost of robots has fallen by 30 per cent in the past five years while their performance ha s risen by the same amount over the same period. Mr Warn estimates that the real advance in automation will come in the next two to three years as new c ars come on stream having been designed with automation in mind. But it is w orth adding a caveat: design a car for easier automation, and you make it ea sier for a man to assemble, too. Ford looked long and hard at automating fin al assembly of the Sierra replacement, the CDW27, and appears to have ruled it out as still not cost effective. But there are companies that have automa ted already. Fiat builds its Tipo car on highly automated lines at Cassino i n Italy. The factory has more than 100 computers, 400 robots, 24 lasers, mor e than 1200 wire guided trollies and 480 automatic guided vehicles. It is th e most highly automated factory in the world. Similarly, Volkswagen builds t he Golf on highly-automated lines, while Citroen uses automation to carry ou t large numbers of final assembly tasks on the XM executive car at Rennes in France. But there are constraints in such an approach. The high cost of sop histicated automation systems makes high production volume a must. Yet the c omplexity of the systems can mean frequent break-downs, adding to indirect c osts, as systems engineers wrestle with the problems. Professor Dan Jones of Cardiff Business School says the Cassino plant will only be cost-effective if it runs at full capacity. And that in turn means Fiat will need another l ess efficient car plant elsewhere capable of turning Tipo production on and off according to fluctuating demand. Similarly, automation can inhibit new m odel design by forcing engineers to cut costs by using tooling installed for the old model. The Volkswagen Golf is often cited as a case in point. Inste ad of trying to replace the workforce, some companies are turning to automat ion as a means of using people more effectively. Citroen automates tasks tha t are ergonomically awkward. And Jones suggests that automation should be us ed to tackle the simple repetitive tasks, not the labour-intensive pinchpoin ts on a production line where workforce numbers may be reduced but the autom ation left with an impossibly complicated job - and the people with an impos sibly boring set of simple jobs. Instead of being concerned with machines, s ome managers are turning to two sets of people for help: the workforce and t he supplier. Unlocking the skill in the workforce can be extremely effective . Rover achieved huge improvements to productivity and quality by asking its workforce to examine prototypes of the new Rover 800 executive car before i t went into production. Similarly, Nissan's car factory in Sunderland is one of the least automated but most efficient in Europe because of the manageme nt skill in running the factory efficiently. All car companies will simplify their own tasks by asking suppliers to do more. Instead of assembling cars under one roof, car companies will receive built-up modules such as dashboar ds, seats or mouldings ready for installation into the car. But whichever ro ute a company chooses it must get the cost analysis right. Automation can be hugely expensive. But so is failure to use the workforce. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 78 ============================================== Transaction #: 78 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:57 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8066 _AN-EHSD0AB7FT 9408 19 FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and science By ANDREW FISHER Ever sinc e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the future, the idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed people. Today's computers, however impressive their calculating and processing power, are f ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed to mimic the brain and recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are penetrating deeply into the practical world. Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs t carried out in the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that the technology came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range from the monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin g, brewing or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f inancial markets and trends in consumer demand. Because of their complexity and the very term neural networks - which tends to conjure up the image of a mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen - such systems have met with sce pticism as well as approval. Some specialists prefer not to use the words wh en talking to customers. 'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if we say 'neural network',' says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London -based Right Information Systems, which produces software for commercial use at prices ranging from Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black box. Yet it's a bundle of equations like any other method.' These equations are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on neurons in the human brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons (nerve cells) linked in a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and memorise information and images from all the senses in a way computers cannot possibly match. Neural networks have only a few hundred or thousand neurons (or processing units). These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed c alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data - an d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human brain can supply. Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t o tricky problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a nd how effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing pr ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool in the toolbox.' The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & Sullivan, the US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo rk market is expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov er this decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e very area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate d with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable breakthro ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten character r ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.' As well as big names in the electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi and Intel, a host of smaller, specialised companies are working on neural computers and applicat ions. In many cases, neural networks are combined with other types of comput er technology such as genetic algorithms (copying biological mechanisms to p roduce evolving solutions) and rule induction systems (generating rules for specific tasks). In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy logic to help deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee n used to build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als o produced a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu y and sell Tokyo-quoted stocks. Both systems yielded a high degree of accura cy. Because of the extra analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m any banks and financial institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha nge and equity trading as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki ng, fraud detection and mortgage evaluation. Thus much of the recent emphasi s has been on applications in finance, although many bankers are hesitant ab out entrusting large sums of money to the judgments of a computer. Since it is very hard to work out why a neural network comes up with a particular ans wer or recommendation, this wariness is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact ors can come into play which have not been put into the system. Even so, fin ancial applications will continue to play an important role in this market. Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the worldwide ne ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by which time t he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn). Industrial uses sh ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with the defence share falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other applications, the medic al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per cent. Among the most p romising fields for neural network technology are retailing and market resea rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not to want to talk a bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market modelling for Kraft General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of tremendous use in he lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and the pricing and market ing of products. 'We build models of things like the way in which weather in Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact of coffee prices on con sumption.' The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ es of statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c offee price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. ' In coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price g yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models. On a narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central Resear ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure greater accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing customer records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which people ar e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other goods and whi ch are likely to respond to promotions. This has led to considerable savings on mailing costs. 'If you're going to look at market data analysis and see how to earn money, you have to recognise that some improvements can result i n a heck of a lot of money,' says Jeremy Severwright, business development m anager at CRL's advanced computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th rough very quickly.' Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us ers who can extract more profit from customers by using neural network techn iques. But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the c ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent s ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of self-lear ning robots for the office and home. Currently, however, neural network expe rts are preoccupied with the more basic concern that industry should adopt t he technology more widely. 'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says Suran Goonatilake, a research fellow at University College London. In Britai n, the DTI has been spreading the message through its awareness programme wh ich has spawned a number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan still have the lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl y. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- F orecast growth in neural networks market Revenue Growth Rate (%) ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 na 22.7 31.7 41. 4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: Frost & Sullivan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Co untries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P3571 Elec tronic Computers. P7372 Prepackaged Software. Types:- < TP>TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Mar ket shares. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 79 ============================================== Transaction #: 79 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:28:59 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8066 _AN-EHSD0AB7FT 9408 19 FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and science By ANDREW FISHER Ever sinc e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the future, the idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed people. Today's computers, however impressive their calculating and processing power, are f ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed to mimic the brain and recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are penetrating deeply into the practical world. Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs t carried out in the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that the technology came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range from the monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin g, brewing or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f inancial markets and trends in consumer demand. Because of their complexity and the very term neural networks - which tends to conjure up the image of a mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen - such systems have met with sce pticism as well as approval. Some specialists prefer not to use the words wh en talking to customers. 'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if we say 'neural network',' says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London -based Right Information Systems, which produces software for commercial use at prices ranging from Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black box. Yet it's a bundle of equations like any other method.' These equations are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on neurons in the human brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons (nerve cells) linked in a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and memorise information and images from all the senses in a way computers cannot possibly match. Neural networks have only a few hundred or thousand neurons (or processing units). These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed c alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data - an d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human brain can supply. Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t o tricky problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a nd how effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing pr ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool in the toolbox.' The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & Sullivan, the US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo rk market is expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov er this decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e very area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate d with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable breakthro ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten character r ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.' As well as big names in the electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi and Intel, a host of smaller, specialised companies are working on neural computers and applicat ions. In many cases, neural networks are combined with other types of comput er technology such as genetic algorithms (copying biological mechanisms to p roduce evolving solutions) and rule induction systems (generating rules for specific tasks). In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy logic to help deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee n used to build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als o produced a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu y and sell Tokyo-quoted stocks. Both systems yielded a high degree of accura cy. Because of the extra analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m any banks and financial institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha nge and equity trading as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki ng, fraud detection and mortgage evaluation. Thus much of the recent emphasi s has been on applications in finance, although many bankers are hesitant ab out entrusting large sums of money to the judgments of a computer. Since it is very hard to work out why a neural network comes up with a particular ans wer or recommendation, this wariness is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact ors can come into play which have not been put into the system. Even so, fin ancial applications will continue to play an important role in this market. Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the worldwide ne ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by which time t he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn). Industrial uses sh ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with the defence share falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other applications, the medic al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per cent. Among the most p romising fields for neural network technology are retailing and market resea rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not to want to talk a bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market modelling for Kraft General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of tremendous use in he lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and the pricing and market ing of products. 'We build models of things like the way in which weather in Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact of coffee prices on con sumption.' The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ es of statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c offee price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. ' In coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price g yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models. On a narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central Resear ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure greater accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing customer records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which people ar e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other goods and whi ch are likely to respond to promotions. This has led to considerable savings on mailing costs. 'If you're going to look at market data analysis and see how to earn money, you have to recognise that some improvements can result i n a heck of a lot of money,' says Jeremy Severwright, business development m anager at CRL's advanced computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th rough very quickly.' Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us ers who can extract more profit from customers by using neural network techn iques. But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the c ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent s ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of self-lear ning robots for the office and home. Currently, however, neural network expe rts are preoccupied with the more basic concern that industry should adopt t he technology more widely. 'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says Suran Goonatilake, a research fellow at University College London. In Britai n, the DTI has been spreading the message through its awareness programme wh ich has spawned a number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan still have the lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl y. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- F orecast growth in neural networks market Revenue Growth Rate (%) ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 na 22.7 31.7 41. 4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: Frost & Sullivan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Co untries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P3571 Elec tronic Computers. P7372 Prepackaged Software. Types:- < TP>TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Mar ket shares. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 80 ============================================== Transaction #: 80 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:06 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-11658 _AN-CGWASAEJFT 920 723 FT 23 JUL 92 / Technology: More oil on the wheels - Financial pressures have forced Japan's auto makers to build in flexibility By STEVEN BUTLER Nissan Motor's kit chen-clean car assembly plant on Japan's southern Kyushu Island could easily pass for an exhibition of state-of-the-art robotics and computer-controlled manufacturing. Giant mechanical arms hoist seven stamped, steel panels into position and, amid a shower of sparks caused by 64 simultaneous welds, the main body of a car is created. Sixteen robots then go to work on the body, p erforming 600 spot welds in rapid succession in two stages. Today, productio n on the line is just getting going, but eventually the robots will handle u p to four different model styles, in eight different variations, all of it c ontrolled by computer. Production at the body assembly stage is 100 per cent automated. But more important than the automation itself is that Nissan has managed to build in flexibility, albeit at considerable cost. As Japanese c ar makers face a labour shortage that is forcing them to replace human versa tility with far less adaptable machines, flexibility in manufacturing - or r ather lack of it - has become a critical issue. Machines are not easily prog rammed to install different components for different cars coming down the li ne, and they still lack the dexterity of men. Market trends have also height ened this need. While the Japanese manufacturers increased sales sharply in the late 1980s, all but Toyota did this by selling more models in smaller pr oduction runs. Being able to assemble multiple models on a single line incre ases the utilisation rate of expensive equipment. Today, with consumer taste s shifting rapidly, some production lines are running flat out, unable to me et demand, while others making less popular models go underutilised. 'Our fo cus in production engineering is to enhance flexibility,' says Ryuichi Tsuka moto, executive vice president at Honda Engineering, a subsidiary of Honda M otor. 'Enhancing flexibility is the best way to get efficient production.' T sukamoto's strategy involves two broad approaches: one stresses the localisa tion of parts supply for an industry that has in a decade become global, and a second involves increasing the use of standardised parts and rethinking t he design process for cars to allow standardised robots to install functiona lly different components. Tsukamoto describes the idealised 'lean' Japanese manufacturing process as direct production, which is essentially similar to the production system pioneered by Toyota Motor in the 1950s. Tsukamoto trie s to match production capacity for parts and components suppliers precisely with the needs of the assembly line, with suppliers located near the assembl y factory and thus able to respond quickly to demands from the factory floor . Honda more or less achieved this in the 1970s at its two main assembly pla nts in Japan, in Sayama and Suzuka. However, the start of production in the US in the early 1980s, followed by a period of hectic growth, led Honda far from the ideal, as the US plants were dependent on a long umbilical cord to Japanese suppliers. 'Year by year we have been trying to localise parts supp ly and create direct production in the US,' he says. The US operation is sti ll 20 to 30 per cent dependent on Japan for parts supply. Honda intends to c arry the process further, and has recently established separate overseas ope rating divisions aimed at decentralising the international management in ord er to enhance local flexibility. Honda is the most advanced in giving a long leash to its overseas operations, but all the Japanese companies are headin g in the same direction. The redesign of parts and components themselves has recently become something of a hot topic in Japan, and Yoshifumi Tsuji, pre sident of Nissan, has been most vocal about the need to reduce the complexit y of cars, to use fewer parts, and to use more common parts in different mod els, thus allowing for greater economies of scale in manufacture. Companies like Nissan and Honda competed in recent years by bringing out new models, w hich were designed from scratch with little thought about economising on par ts supply. Honda's experience with the 1990 Accord, its bread-and-butter mid -sized car, however, caused the company to rethink the design process. The c ar was loaded with new technology, but was panned by the Japanese press for being old hat, mainly on styling grounds, and it flopped with consumers. Thi s begged the question: if consumers were unable to appreciate innovative eng ineering throughout the car, was it all necessary? Might not the use of more standardised parts in different models produce a car of equal appeal and qu ality? Tsukamoto is now leading a campaign within Honda to improve what he c alls 'commonality of design'. The idea is not just to put identical parts in to different models, but to set standards for installation, for example, put ting mounting holes in the same place on different models. The aim is to all ow a relatively inflexible robot to install a wide variety of parts. Flexibi lity in this case comes not from the production line itself, but from the de sign process. How far the process can be taken, however, remains an open que stion, particularly at a time when automobile technology is changing rapidly in response to tightening environmental and safety standards around the wor ld. New technology means changing parts designs that will stand in the way o f standardisation. Shoichiro Toyoda, president of Toyota Motor, is sceptical . 'We have been trying to use common parts for a long time, but have not bee n able to do it very well,' he admits. Toyoda says that while the concept of using common parts is attractive, in practice it is difficult to achieve wi thout compromising the quality of different models of cars, where the engine ering requirements are subtly different. To some extent, Toyoda's scepticism reflects the relative efficiency of Toyota's engineering and manufacturing process, which has for years set the standard for the industry. There may si mply be less room for improvement at Toyota. Toyota has a double advantage b ecause the scale of its operations is considerably bigger than the other com panies, already allowing for greater economies of scale. And Toyota's habit of adopting a cautious, gradualist approach to new technology, in order to a void making expensive errors, has served it well over the years. For the res t of the industry, however, the financial pressure to reinvent the engineeri ng process is intense. With the bloom having come off the car market, there is less to be gained from dazzling consumers with fancy new models. Car make rs have little choice but to try to match Toyota's efficiency - and to bette r it if they can. A previous article on Japanese engineering for flexibility appeared on the Technology Page on July 16. The Financial Time s London Page 12 ============= Transaction # 81 ============================================== Transaction #: 81 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:21 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8066 _AN-EHSD0AB7FT 9408 19 FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and science By ANDREW FISHER Ever sinc e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the future, the idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed people. Today's computers, however impressive their calculating and processing power, are f ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed to mimic the brain and recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are penetrating deeply into the practical world. Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs t carried out in the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that the technology came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range from the monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin g, brewing or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f inancial markets and trends in consumer demand. Because of their complexity and the very term neural networks - which tends to conjure up the image of a mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen - such systems have met with sce pticism as well as approval. Some specialists prefer not to use the words wh en talking to customers. 'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if we say 'neural network',' says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London -based Right Information Systems, which produces software for commercial use at prices ranging from Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black box. Yet it's a bundle of equations like any other method.' These equations are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on neurons in the human brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons (nerve cells) linked in a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and memorise information and images from all the senses in a way computers cannot possibly match. Neural networks have only a few hundred or thousand neurons (or processing units). These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed c alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data - an d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human brain can supply. Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t o tricky problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a nd how effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing pr ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool in the toolbox.' The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & Sullivan, the US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo rk market is expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov er this decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e very area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate d with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable breakthro ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten character r ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.' As well as big names in the electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi and Intel, a host of smaller, specialised companies are working on neural computers and applicat ions. In many cases, neural networks are combined with other types of comput er technology such as genetic algorithms (copying biological mechanisms to p roduce evolving solutions) and rule induction systems (generating rules for specific tasks). In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy logic to help deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee n used to build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als o produced a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu y and sell Tokyo-quoted stocks. Both systems yielded a high degree of accura cy. Because of the extra analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m any banks and financial institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha nge and equity trading as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki ng, fraud detection and mortgage evaluation. Thus much of the recent emphasi s has been on applications in finance, although many bankers are hesitant ab out entrusting large sums of money to the judgments of a computer. Since it is very hard to work out why a neural network comes up with a particular ans wer or recommendation, this wariness is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact ors can come into play which have not been put into the system. Even so, fin ancial applications will continue to play an important role in this market. Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the worldwide ne ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by which time t he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn). Industrial uses sh ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with the defence share falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other applications, the medic al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per cent. Among the most p romising fields for neural network technology are retailing and market resea rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not to want to talk a bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market modelling for Kraft General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of tremendous use in he lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and the pricing and market ing of products. 'We build models of things like the way in which weather in Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact of coffee prices on con sumption.' The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ es of statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c offee price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. ' In coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price g yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models. On a narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central Resear ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure greater accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing customer records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which people ar e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other goods and whi ch are likely to respond to promotions. This has led to considerable savings on mailing costs. 'If you're going to look at market data analysis and see how to earn money, you have to recognise that some improvements can result i n a heck of a lot of money,' says Jeremy Severwright, business development m anager at CRL's advanced computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th rough very quickly.' Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us ers who can extract more profit from customers by using neural network techn iques. But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the c ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent s ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of self-lear ning robots for the office and home. Currently, however, neural network expe rts are preoccupied with the more basic concern that industry should adopt t he technology more widely. 'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says Suran Goonatilake, a research fellow at University College London. In Britai n, the DTI has been spreading the message through its awareness programme wh ich has spawned a number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan still have the lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl y. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- F orecast growth in neural networks market Revenue Growth Rate (%) ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 na 22.7 31.7 41. 4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: Frost & Sullivan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Co untries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P3571 Elec tronic Computers. P7372 Prepackaged Software. Types:- < TP>TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Mar ket shares. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 82 ============================================== Transaction #: 82 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:22 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8066 _AN-EHSD0AB7FT 9408 19 FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and science By ANDREW FISHER Ever sinc e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the future, the idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed people. Today's computers, however impressive their calculating and processing power, are f ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed to mimic the brain and recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are penetrating deeply into the practical world. Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs t carried out in the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that the technology came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range from the monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin g, brewing or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f inancial markets and trends in consumer demand. Because of their complexity and the very term neural networks - which tends to conjure up the image of a mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen - such systems have met with sce pticism as well as approval. Some specialists prefer not to use the words wh en talking to customers. 'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if we say 'neural network',' says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London -based Right Information Systems, which produces software for commercial use at prices ranging from Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black box. Yet it's a bundle of equations like any other method.' These equations are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on neurons in the human brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons (nerve cells) linked in a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and memorise information and images from all the senses in a way computers cannot possibly match. Neural networks have only a few hundred or thousand neurons (or processing units). These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed c alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data - an d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human brain can supply. Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t o tricky problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a nd how effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing pr ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool in the toolbox.' The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost & Sullivan, the US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo rk market is expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov er this decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e very area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate d with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable breakthro ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten character r ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.' As well as big names in the electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi and Intel, a host of smaller, specialised companies are working on neural computers and applicat ions. In many cases, neural networks are combined with other types of comput er technology such as genetic algorithms (copying biological mechanisms to p roduce evolving solutions) and rule induction systems (generating rules for specific tasks). In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy logic to help deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee n used to build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als o produced a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu y and sell Tokyo-quoted stocks. Both systems yielded a high degree of accura cy. Because of the extra analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m any banks and financial institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha nge and equity trading as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki ng, fraud detection and mortgage evaluation. Thus much of the recent emphasi s has been on applications in finance, although many bankers are hesitant ab out entrusting large sums of money to the judgments of a computer. Since it is very hard to work out why a neural network comes up with a particular ans wer or recommendation, this wariness is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact ors can come into play which have not been put into the system. Even so, fin ancial applications will continue to play an important role in this market. Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the worldwide ne ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by which time t he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn). Industrial uses sh ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with the defence share falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other applications, the medic al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per cent. Among the most p romising fields for neural network technology are retailing and market resea rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not to want to talk a bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market modelling for Kraft General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of tremendous use in he lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and the pricing and market ing of products. 'We build models of things like the way in which weather in Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact of coffee prices on con sumption.' The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ es of statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c offee price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. ' In coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price g yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models. On a narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central Resear ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure greater accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing customer records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which people ar e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other goods and whi ch are likely to respond to promotions. This has led to considerable savings on mailing costs. 'If you're going to look at market data analysis and see how to earn money, you have to recognise that some improvements can result i n a heck of a lot of money,' says Jeremy Severwright, business development m anager at CRL's advanced computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th rough very quickly.' Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us ers who can extract more profit from customers by using neural network techn iques. But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the c ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent s ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of self-lear ning robots for the office and home. Currently, however, neural network expe rts are preoccupied with the more basic concern that industry should adopt t he technology more widely. 'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says Suran Goonatilake, a research fellow at University College London. In Britai n, the DTI has been spreading the message through its awareness programme wh ich has spawned a number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan still have the lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl y. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- F orecast growth in neural networks market Revenue Growth Rate (%) ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 na 22.7 31.7 41. 4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Source: Frost & Sullivan ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Co untries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P3571 Elec tronic Computers. P7372 Prepackaged Software. Types:- < TP>TECH Products & Product use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS Mar ket shares. The Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 83 ============================================== Transaction #: 83 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:28 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-12990 _AN-CGPA3ABBFT 920 716 FT 16 JUL 92 / Technology: Driven back to basics - A s Japanese car makers strive to cut costs, priorities on the production line have changed By STEVEN BUTLER Yosh ifumi Tsuji, Nissan Motor's new president, has a straightforward message to his staff: build it simple. Tsuji wants to cut down by half the multiple var ieties of parts - such as optional steering wheels - that can go into a Niss an car. He wants to use more common parts among different car models, and is even looking to bring down costs by sourcing major components jointly with rival car makers. If the 1980s was the decade when the Japanese automobile c ompanies dazzled the world with rapid expansion and a seemingly endless prol iferation of new models, the 1990s is forcing the industry back to its engin eering basics in an effort to improve profits. Following last year's dismal financial performance, the industry has come under real pressure for the fir st time since 1986, when the rapid appreciation of the yen forced the compan ies into a round of severe cost cutting. Operating margins at Nissan Motor's parent company in Japan last year fell to 0.8 per cent, while Mazda was at 0.9 per cent and Honda at 1.8 per cent. Toyota has yet to report for the yea r ending in June, but is unlikely to match Honda. The cause of poor profitab ility is not inefficient manufacturing per se. Indeed Japan's car makers are probably the most efficient in the world. Yet the weak state of automobile markets leaves the companies with little choice but to cut costs, and some c ompanies believe that considerable scope for improvement remains. 'Efficienc y was number two or three in our priorities, after reducing lead times and i mproving quality,' says Ryuichi Tsukamoto, executive vice president at Honda Engineering, Honda's production engineering subsidiary. 'Now we cannot deny the importance of efficiency, because the business is facing tough times.' An engineering solution to the car makers' problems, however, is a tall orde r because the companies face conflicting pressures that suggest opposite sol utions. The Japanese industry must cope, for example, with a severe labour s hortage, which suggests automation may be the answer. Yet automation is expe nsive. And increased use of industrial robots reduces flexibility on product ion lines at a time when rapidly changing consumer tastes require increased flexibility. In an attempt to resolve these conflicting pressures, the compa nies are focusing on two related areas of the manufacturing process: final a ssembly and design. The most recent trend in final assembly technology dates to a small-scale, experimental factory that Honda ran for two years at its 1980s. At the plant Honda introduced what it called General Assembly Trucks (Gat) to replace the traditional assembly line. In the traditional conveyor line, pioneered by Henry Ford, vehicle chassis rode on a platform of fixed h eight. The platforms were spaced evenly and were linked together and pulled along by a chain. The line moved at a uniform speed, ideally never stopping, while workers installed parts and components as the vehicle moved slowly by . Yet the old-fashioned conveyor has proved too inflexible. Cars move along at the same speed, spaced evenly regardless of how difficult they are to ass emble. If one car has to be stopped because of a problem, they all stop, bri nging work to a halt on the whole line. Because planned stops for the cars a re impractical, automation using stationery robots is impossible. Honda's in novation was to dispense with the link between the platforms. Instead of bei ng pulled along by a noisy chain, Honda put the chassis on a dolly which mov es under the power of its own electric motor. The motor draws power by induc tion from a cable beneath the floor and can also raise and lower the vehicle chassis so that workers never have to bend to install parts. Honda's Gat al so supplies a key that opens the door automation: the dollies can move at di fferent speeds, stop precisely to allow robot installation of components, an d accelerate and decelerate quickly to keep an expensive robot used to the m aximum. And the entire process can be controlled by central computer, which monitors progress of each vehicle by means of an electronic sensor system on the dolly and tells the robots what is coming. The result is a production l ine much more pleasant to work on and one which is much more amenable to aut omation. Honda concluded it was technically possible to raise the automation rate on final assembly to 30 per cent, compared with 5 per cent standard in the industry. Honda installed the technology on one line at the Suzuka plan t, on lines at East Liberty in Ohio, and will open a plant later this year i n Swindon using an advanced version of the system. Honda Engineering also li censed the basic technology to Daifuku, the Japanese specialist in factory e quipment. Daifuku has sold the system to both Toyota and Nissan, which have opened separate plants in the past year. The lines are beautiful to watch, w hen compared with the traditional noisy and disorderly line. Nissan believes it will result in smoother operation on the final assembly line, since cars that are complex to assemble can be spaced further apart. And if a problem arises, only one car need be stopped, allowing it to catch up later. Yet whe ther the technology offers a true solution for the industry's problems is an other question. For one, the line costs between two and three times as much to install as a traditional conveyor system, yet by itself does not contribu te anything to raising productivity. The improvement in productivity only co mes after additional spending on robots. When Honda installed its Suzuka lin e in 1989, it lifted the level of automation to 18 per cent. Tsukamoto says this raised labour productivity on the line by between 15 to 17 per cent. Bu t Honda has shelved a plan to install more robots on the line to raise the a utomation ratio to 30 per cent. It is too expensive. Tsukamoto says that to replace one worker with machinery can cost between Y10m (Pounds 42,000) and Y80m, depending on the process. Honda is willing to spend the money when it relieves a particularly onerous manual task, or when the investment results in a large improvement in quality. One area where Honda has not skimped is o n machinery for automated, simultaneous installation of car suspension and e ngines. By mounting and fastening all bolts simultaneously, Tsukamoto says, a more precise fit is obtained, allowing for improved handling and ride. Sim ultaneous bolt fastening prevents the accumulation of minor alignment errors . The robots also provide rapid feedback. If a single bolt hole is misaligne d, the machines quit. On a traditional line, a slightly misaligned bolt hole will rarely slow down a worker, who will put the thing together anyway. The worker will still have to intervene on Honda's automated line when holes do not match, but because the robots detect quality problems instantly, the so urce can be traced immediately and corrected. Honda's Gat system offers the potential to save labour, improve quality and increase flexibility. Whether this potential can be exploited to the financial benefit of the car makers, however, depends very much on other links in the engineering chain. A furthe r article on engineering for flexibility will appear shortly. T he Financial Times London Page 16 ============= Transaction # 84 ============================================== Transaction #: 84 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:45 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-1129 _AN-CIXB5AFBFT 9209 24 FT 24 SEP 92 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing ( 1): Avoidable problems -Computers have changed the face of manufacturing in the past 20 years, but often the wrong systems have been installed. New sof tware developments now provide the opportunity to avoid previous problems By ANDREW BAXTER THE FACTORY of the f uture may fast be turning into a present-day reality, but suppliers and cust omers in perhaps the most complex and diverse modern industrial sectors are still learning lessons from the mistakes of the past. Computers - corporate- level mainframes, computer-aided design (Cad) in the drawing office, product ion control systems, manufacturing resource planning systems and much more b esides - have changed the face of manufacturing over the past 20 years. Ofte n, however, they have simply added to manufacturing's problems. Customers on both sides of the Atlantic have bought too much equipment, believing that c omputer - integrated manufacturing was simply a case of giving everyone a co mputer screen, bought oversophisticated equipment, failed to understand the cultural implications of a computer investment or simply bought the wrong sy stem for their needs. Suppliers bear much of the blame. Dr Matthew Barekat, managing director of Company Doctors International, recalls a case where the supplier of software to control a batch manufacturing system tried to convi nce a process manufacturer, for which the system would have been totally uns uitable, to purchase the system by changing it very slightly. Episodes like this go some way to explain the very high failure rates of, and unrealistic expectations for, computers in the manufacturing environment. At the same ti me, there has also been considerable dissatisfaction at board level about co mpanies' computer investments, because they have hitherto been seen by chief executives as islands of automation that have not been linked together prop erly, says Mr Garreth Evans, Computervision's UK managing director. But atti tudes are now changing, just as manufacturers themselves are trying to simpl ify their production processes to address the big competitive challenges of the 1990s. The move towards small, simple manufacturing cells with varying l evels of automation is aimed at producing truly flexible manufacturing and s harply reducing cycle times, and manufacturers are looking for computer syst ems that support rather than smother the process. And just as the recession is forcing chief executives to control capital spending tightly, bosses are at last realising that they have to become involved in the major computer de cisions that might previously have been left to separate departments. Indeed , manufacturers have to understand the need to develop a business strategy a nd then find the right computer system, rather than the other way round, say s Mr John Crampton, a director of Ingersoll Engineers. The change in attitud e coincides with some important technology developments -in software at lea st - over the past two or three years, with more to come, that hold the key to achieving what Frost & Sullivan, the market research group, recently call ed 'a factory in which there is computer-based, seamless integration of peop le functions, information technology, and manufacturing processes to achieve business objectives defined by management goals'. That is achievable now, a lthough too many manufacturers are held back by their past mistakes, and by, for example, computer-aided engineering software that cannot communicate wi th a business mainframe. On Tuesday, however, the start of the three-day Com puters in Manufacturing show at Birmingham's National Exhibition Centre will show how many of the old problems can be avoided. Experts on the use of com puters in manufacturing point to a number of significant developments over t he past two to three years. The introduction of so-called fourth generation computer languages has done a great deal, says Dr Barekat, to increase compu ters' flexibility, and offered a real opportunity to write a new breed of so ftware for industry. The trend towards open systems - non-exclusive, non-pro prietary standards for computer and communication environments - also offers immense opportunities for manufacturers to create effective interfaces betw een different elements of their computer systems. 'Vendors who remain propri etorial will go to the wall - and a good thing too,' says Mr Evans. If appli ed correctly, such developments ought to go a long way to address what is no w seen almost universally as the key challenge for major western world manuf acturers in the 1990s - reducing 'time-to-market' or product development tim es. The concept of 'concurrent engineering' where all sections of a company, and often its suppliers, work in teams to develop new products, rather than taking on each task in sequence, is rapidly gaining acceptance. Achieving i t is partly a cultural issue - Japanese manufacturers have called the tune o n product development times without heavy reliance on technology. The use of three-dimensional Cad, seen in the west as a prerequisite for successful co ncurrent engineering, is surprisingly rare in Japan. Western companies have traditionally found the 'people issues' surrounding manufacturing technology hard to handle - the 'failure' of MRPII (manufacturing resources planning), one of the vogue computerised systems of the 1970s for providing company-wi de production information, is widely attributed to a lack of training, or of involvement of users in the initial purchasing decision. Hence the relative ly high priority given to technology solutions. Some of the major technology contributions to reducing time-to-market are happening within discrete part s of the process. The use of parametrics, an 'intelligent' system which auto matically adjusts a Cad design for the change of one or more dimensions, is 'taking off' says Mr Crampton, citing a manufacturing company which was able to output a design that previously took three months in three to four minut es. Increasingly, however, manufacturers are realising the need for accurate , shared information to be available to all departments which participate in the concurrent engineering process - and external suppliers. This puts an a dded premium on company-wide engineering databases and data interchange, the success of which will depend crucially on open systems. Mr Keith Nichols, d irector of EDS Scicon's manufacturing consultancy, says the bulk of product databases are supporting small teams, but reports considerable progress in t he UK over the past three years towards what he calls the 'million file chal lenge,' an indication that the product database is broad enough for informat ion to be truly shared. Another problem area, he says, is in technology link s with suppliers. As big manufacturers increasingly push design work out to subcontractors, the need for accurate, updated information grows. 'If you fr eeze a supply chain now, you would find that 50 per cent of the data is out- of-date, he says.' This points up the need for electronic data interchange ( EDI) links between manufacturers and subcontractors, especially when large n umbers of companies are involved. AT&T Istel, for example, is working on a p ilot programme with Rover which will eventually link the UK car producer wit h 200 suppliers via an electronic 'mailbox'. The recession may have turned m anufacturers into more discerning customers for computer systems, but has al most certainly increased their resolve to address the big manufacturing issu es in order to survive. The use and importance of computers also changes sig nificantly during a recession, according to Ms Anthea Ballam of the consulta nts Ballam Malaguti International. The information provided by computers bec omes much more valuable than in boom times when the finer points of the manu facturing control system tend to be overlooked, she says. Meanwhile, cuts in management layers have obliged managers to work across the boundaries of th eir sphere of operation, and acquire a more integrated picture of the whole manufacturing operation. It is partly for these reasons, therefore, that the inevitable downturn in spending during the recession has been significantly less than for capital equipment as a whole. A survey by Benchmark Research, to be released for the CIM show, says UK industry plans to spend Pounds 1.5 bn on computer-based manufacturing applications in the next 12 months, down just 4 per cent on the previous year. The survey, encouragingly, shows that open systems are beginning to take off, with 22 per cent of manufacturing si tes that have computers using open systems against 15 per cent in 1991. And 84 per cent of the 1,300 sites surveyed said the need to integrate systems w as a major reason for investment. Suppliers will be trying to address their needs in the 1990s with products that currently remain on the drawing-board. One emerging area, says AT&T Istel, is ERP or enterprise resource planning - a phrase coined by the Gartner Group, the US consultancy - which will use technologies such as artificial intelligence and relational databases to cre ate a complete 'data model' for all aspects of multi-company enterprises, in cluding Europe's big manufacturers. At the shopfloor level, Dr Barekat has a dvocated the concept of 'distributed MRP,' small-scale MRPII systems at manu facturing cell level, linked by a plant-wide network of PCs or workstations but giving each cell responsibility for its own scheduling. The 'passive' IT users, meanwhile - accounts, sales and administrative departments - keep a conventional centralised MRPII system. One can be fairly confident that yet more acronyms will be coined over the next few years to replace those that h ave fallen out of favour. The Financial Times Lon don Page 31 ============= Transaction # 85 ============================================== Transaction #: 85 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:29:53 Selec. Rec. #: 14 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-3402 _AN-DCPCCAF1FT 9303 16 FT 16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac ture (1): Farewell to sweat-shops - A rapidly rising proportion of electroni c equipment is now manufactured on behalf of the big international suppliers by outside contractors. Paul Taylor probes the reasons for the emergence of this expanding force within one of the world's predominant industries By PAUL TAYLOR CONTRACT electronics manu facturing (CEM) has become the fastest growing sector of the European electr onics industry and is on target to become a Dollars 22bn global business by the mid-1990s. In the UK a group of dedicated contract electronics manufactu rers have successfully shaken off the second-rate 'sweat-shop' image of sub- contract and assembly work in the 1960s by investing heavily in advanced pro duction and test equipment, training and quality processes. Today their big customers are blue chip multinationals such as IBM, Sony, Bosch, Motorola, A EG, and Matsushita which require fast response times, flexibility and first class quality, as well as cost-effective manufacturing. These companies are using contract manufacturers as part of their global strategies to maintain and improve international competitiveness. From humble beginnings the UK ind ustry has entered what Mr Bruce Armstrong, managing director of SCI Europe, describes as its third phase - strategic global partnerships between OEMs an d contract manufacturers which can provide full turnkey services from design and printed circuit board layout, through to product distribution. A handfu l of factors have fuelled the growth in CEM over the past decade. In particu lar, the pace of technological change has resulted in shortened product life cycles requiring increased manufacturing flexibility and worldwide manufact uring capability. In order to remain competitive in fast moving consumer-led markets companies have had to reduce the period it takes to bring new produ cts to market. At the same time electronic controls are replacing electro-me chanical devices in many consumer products such as cars and medical equipmen t whose manufacturers have little or no electronics manufacturing experience or capacity. Meanwhile, the continuing push for smaller, more portable but more sophisticated products such as mobile phones and notebook computers req uires greater silicon integration and results in more complex devices. These are best manufactured using advanced techniques for placing components on p rinted circuit boards such as surface mount technology which require expensi ve specialist machinery and expertise to design, assemble and test and which involve considerable 'manufacturing risk' because of market volatility. The trend towards CEM also mirrors the move towards buying in a wide range of s ervice and other peripheral corporate functions, backed by the management th eory that organisations should focus on their 'core competencies' and contra ct out every thing else - creating what some observers have called 'the virt ual corporation'. Recessionary pressures have forced some managements to rec onsider the 'make or buy' decision. But generally, although contract manufac turing can result in cost savings, most participants argue this should not b e the primary motivation. The arrival of the single European market has enco uraged many Japanese and other original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to se t up locally in Europe. As MHM, a market research organisation based in Ayr, Scotland, noted in its latest study of the European CEM market, business fr om these companies 'has fuelled spectacular expansion in at least one CEM ho use'. MHM describes the growth of the UK market in the 1980s as 'spectacular '. The turnover of the six largest sub-contract companies in the UK, SCI, Ra ce, Avex, AB, Philips, Welwyn and Timex, grew by an average 42 per cent per year between 1984 and 1990. Growth has slowed considerably since then, in pa rt reflecting the recession and the sharp price war in the computer and IT s ector which accounts for a still large, but declining, proportion of the CEM industry order book - a trend which has been partly offset by increased dem and from new customers in the automotive, telecommunications and industrial sectors. According to the Association of Contract Electronics Manufacturers (ACeM), part of the Electronic Components Industry Federation (ECIF), formed in 1990 to provide a voice for the emerging industry, the overall UK market was worth about Pounds 550m last year, and is growing at an underlying annu al rate of 10-15 per cent. ACeM membership now totals 48 contractors represe nting 70-80 per cent of the UK CEM industry which, despite being capital int ensive, employs around 10,000 people. 'Rapid growth over the last 10 years h as resulted in a fragmented industry expanding on the back of a rapidly expa nding electronics industry,' said Mr Eric Luckwell, chairman of Datalink Ser vices, a small Loughborough-based CEM, in a study of the UK market. 'The cap ability of these organisations ranges from the very high volume and complex technological process, such as surface mount technology and automatic compon ent insertion, to the very low volume and simple labour intensive processes, ' he said. Mr Derek Duffett, ACeM director, groups the UK CEM market into fo ur groups. Large companies dedicated to contract electronics include SCI and Avex, Scottish subsidiaries of US groups, which are also multinationals in their own right and whose main business is high volume, low margin work for big OEMs. Their particular strengths are their capacity, sophisticated autom ated manufacturing systems, substantial component purchasing power and world wide facilities. 'Our customers are global, so are we,' says Carol Brannigan , Avex Electronic's European sales and marketing director and chairman of AC eM's Promotions Committee. 'European customers and global companies operatin g in Europe are telling us they need total product life cycle management ser vices not just PCB assembly and test,' she says. In response big CEMs are bu ilding what she calls 'a transparent or seamless partnership' linking CEM an d customer using electronic data interchange (EDI), integrated MRP (Material s Requirement Planning) systems, CAD/CAM design systems and electronic mail. Medium-sized dedicated CEMs are the second group. These generally maintain close links with OEM design houses working in specialist applications areas, such as the industrial and professional markets. Almost half of ACeM's memb ership falls into this category with most companies employing between 100 an d 500 people. They include Welwyn Systems, the contract electronics subsidia ry of the TT Group which also acquired AB Contract Electronics last year, an d Race Electronics. Small start-up companies, the third group, emphasise the ir flexibility and personalised service, particularly to entrepreneurial bus inesses which may want prototypes built and tested or require low to medium manufacturing volumes. The in-house contracting departments of original equi pment manufacturers. These units have been created to fill spare capacity or diversify into new areas. Established players include Philips Circuit assem blies and Rank-Xerox Manufacturing Services. These companies often have acce ss to specialised environmental and test equipment in design and failure ana lysis. Recently they have been joined by other OEMs with excess capacity whi ch, together with the arrival in Europe of new Far East competitors such as Flextronics, is causing concern in an industry which arguably already has ex cess capacity and thin margins. 'Presently the CEM industry can stand the ad ditional capacity better than many other mature electronics sectors,' said t he MHM report, 'but this situation will not continue indefinitely.' An indus try shake-out and reorganisation is widely expected amid forecasts that the industry will become increasingly polarised between the high volume, low mar gin multinational CEMs, and the much smaller niche companies. Mr Gordon Stew art, UK director of specialist management consultants Pittiglio Rabin Todd & McGrath, told an ACeM conference in October that the dominant feature of th e CEM industry in the 1990s will be the performance gap between an emerging super- league of multinational manufacturers and a horde of increasingly mar ginalised smaller competitors. Because the UK market is maturing most of the large CEMs are adopting the twin strategies of trying to win back business which has gone offshore, particularly to the Far East, while also expanding overseas themselves. Armed with internationally accepted quality assurance s tandards and total quality management programmes the UK's leading CEMs have been stressing the importance of looking at total costs - including loss of flexibility and transport delays - in their attempts to win back offshore bu siness, and have been having some success. They are also helped by the incre asingly capital intensive nature of the business, which means that labour co st differentials are growing less important. However, they are handicapped b y the prevailing duty and tariff structure which provides a significant ince ntive to import printed circuit boards or fully built equipment, which are m ostly subject to a 4.5 per cent tariff, rather than semiconductors and other components which are generally subject to a 14 per cent tariff. The ACeM ha s begun to campaign for a more even playing field, arguing that a tariff cha nge could help generate thousands of manufacturing jobs in the UK. At the sa me time some CEMs have begun to establish footholds on the continent. The UK CEM market is considerably more developed than most of its European counter parts. The Germany market in particular is expected to grow rapidly and, to gether with France, is attracting attention. Overall the European CEM market is reckoned to be worth about Dollars 6bn - which still leaves OEMs underta king the vast majority of electronics manufacturing in-house. Despite their growth contract manufacturers have still only captured a fraction of the pot ential European market. Arguably, of all the changes in the electronics indu stry over the past decade, the one that has gone most unnoticed, has been th e emergence of quality contract electronics manufacturers. That is now chang ing. Countries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P36 Electronic and Other Electric Equipment. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. MGMT Management. The Fi nancial Times London Page 33 ============= Transaction # 86 ============================================== Transaction #: 86 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:30:07 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-13372 _AN-CGNBPADBFT 920 714 FT 14 JUL 92 / Survey of World Automotive Components (9): Tomorrow's car takes shape - A look ahead into the future of motoring By JEFF DANIELS THE proportion of a car's value represented by bought-in components is steadily increasing alth ough the basic pattern of car manufacture has changed but little in recent y ears. The vehicle manufacturer invariably produces the body shell, almost al ways the engine (with its own proportion of bought-in parts) and more often than not the transmission. All other components are purchased for direct ins tallation, and this is the area in which car value has been increasing faste st. The process will inevitably continue at a rate which will comfortably ou tstrip the growth of car production measured in raw units. Consumer demand f or ever higher levels of comfort, performance and equipment have gone hand-i n-hand with legislation for more safety and cleaner exhausts to ensure this. A particular area of technology that has become the component suppliers' pr eserve is electronically-controlled systems. While nobody should underestima te the electronic expertise of the vehicle manufacturers themselves, they ar e simply not in the business of producing electronic components in large num bers - unless they do so via dedicated subsidiaries, as do General Motors an d Toyota, for example. While the popular image of an electronic system is th at of a 'black box' computer which exercises control over the operation of s ome aspect of the car, the reality is that the black box and its contents ar e the (relatively) easy part. To exert control, the computer must first asse ss circumstances by means of various types of sensor. It must then act to co ntrol the situation by means of output devices or transducers. It is in the area of sensors and transducers that some of the most intense development of vehicle components is taking place, placing component-sector companies with related expertise, such as Germany's Bosch and Japan's NGK, in a very stron g position. The first serious application of electronic control systems to t he car was in the management of engine operation. It is now commonplace to h ave a single computer controlling ignition and fuel injection, the latter pa rticularly with the aim of reducing exhaust emissions. New regulations conce rning emission control systems have placed extra demands on systems and sens ors: for example, US and Japanese legislation will shortly demand the in-car monitoring of catalytic converter efficiency, calling for oxygen content 'l ambda' sensors to be installed upstream and downstream of the converter. The adaptability and availability of electronic engine control systems may yet bring about a revolution in basic engine design: none of the development tea ms now working hard on two-stroke engine projects would pretend they could m ake their units work properly without the speed and precision of electronic control. Electronics has since migrated to the control of automatic transmis sion. No designer of such transmissions would today contemplate any other ap proach. Without electronics, the control mechanism of the latest five-speed transmissions would be too heavy and complex to be seriously contemplated. N or would there be any question of systems which adapted their shift patterns to the driver's own technique, as some of the new units do. With automatic transmissions in Japan now making the breakthrough to American levels of sal es penetration, and with confident predictions that Europe will follow suit, this will be an important growth area. Another transmission-related area in which rapid growth is expected is that of traction control systems, which o perate to detect incipient wheelspin and to prevent it either by cutting bac k power or by partial brake operation. It is also expected that limited-slip differential units, with or without electronic control, will become much mo re widely fitted. The chassis is the part of the car most recently to have f elt the impact of electronic engineering. We have become more and more famil iar with electronic anti-lock braking but today's developments go further. M ore and more up-market cars are now offered with electronic control of suspe nsion operation, adapting its stiffness to the road surface and to the car's behaviour: soft when cruising on a smooth road, firm when driven briskly on a rough or winding one. Development in this area is rapid and the potential for expansion is huge. Among other things, engineers have long since moved on from considerations of mere ride comfort to study the subtle effects on c ar stability and handling of varying suspension stiffness between the front and rear of the vehicle. Further into the future, chassis specialists are ex amining the possible advantages of electronic 'steer by wire' replacing mech anical linkages. The components industry has already greatly benefited from the much greater amount of comfort and convenience equipment now fitted espe cially to up-market cars. There has been a trend towards the power operation of almost anything that moves. Electric windows and centralised locking hav e been joined by power-operated seats, mirrors and sunroof. Car manufacturer s are beginning to count the number of electric motors installed in luxury-l evel models in dozens. In spite of warnings from some quarters that such dev elopments are driving up the weight, the complexity and the cost of cars to undesirable levels, the trend seems inexorable. Serious consideration has al ready been given to multiplexing and 'databus' systems to reduce the now hug e amount of wiring in modern luxury cars. Beyond the area of mere comfort an d convenience, there looms the huge potential market for equipment to link c ars with each other and with the environment - the kind of equipment beginni ng to emerge from the pan-European Prometheus research programme, for exampl e. It is now possible to conceive of equipment which would enable a car to b e precisely aware of its position (and duly to inform its driver) and thus t o be able to calculate the shortest and quickest route to its pre- programme d destination, taking account of any temporary delays and ensuring safety vi a automatic vehicle separation and optimised road-space sharing. Any such sy stem would inevitably be a high-value item, and would certainly be supplied by the component manufacturing sector. Virtually all the necessary technolog y has already been demonstrated: the remaining problems, not to be underesti mated, involve its integration into complete systems and more particularly, the standardisation of communications protocols and other operational aspect s. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 87 ============================================== Transaction #: 87 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:30:13 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-139 _AN-BENBQACWFT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (2 ): Confusion over the levels of integration and flexibility - Intelligent M achine Tools, a different approach By ANDREW BAXTER IN the beginning there were machine tools, the workhorses o f every mechanical engineering workshop in the world, which are used for cut ting, grinding and shaping lumps of metal to form components for all sorts o f industrial products or machinery. Then, over the past 25 years, came numer ical control and computer numerical control (CNC), in the form of user-frien dly units attached to the machine tool which can be part-programmed on line by the operator or off-line in the production engineering office. Hand-in-ha nd with the CNC units, whose software can control almost any type of machine tool, new designs of machine produced the higher precision, stiffness and s tability to take advantage of the greater accuracy that CNC offers. CNC, whe n applied to single machine tools, is well-established, and more than 80 per cent of Japanese machine tools are numerically-controlled. The units are po werful enough to control 'machining centres', which can often do the work of eight or more standard machine tools, and may contain more than 100 differe nt cutting tools. As the cost of computing power has come down, the economic s of computer memory storage have been transformed, and CNC units can store and recall hundreds of different instructions for a great variety of workpie ces. From the mid-1980s, further developments in CNC technology have produce d the concept of a 'flexible manufacturing system' (FMS), two or more machin ing centres linked and coupled under the control of a host computer. The imp ortant word is 'flexible,' according to the UK Machine Tool Technologies Ass ociation: 'The combined power of the machine and host computer, and their st orage memories, is enough to manufacture all prescribed varieties of work, i n any order.' FMS is now being being linked to computer-aided design and pro duction control to produce manufacturing industry's Holy Grail, Computer Int egrated Manufacturing (Cim). The aim is to link 'islands of automation' on t he factory floor with all the other computerised functions of the manufactur ing process, such as purchasing, ordering, stock control and is proving to b e a tougher challenge than many in the computer industry had predicted only three years ago. Put at its simplest, there appears to be considerable confu sion among manufacturers about how integrated their approach to Cim should b e, or how flexible their use of FMS. The situation is not helped by a prolif eration of computer suppliers, all keen to sell their product but varying in their commitment to service and support. Dr Norman Schofield, director of e ngineering and systems at PA Consulting Group, says there are very good tech nical reasons why Cim has been difficult for many companies to achieve. Comp anies had believed that, to stay competitive, they needed to buy the best av ailable computers for each of the many different disciplines in the manufact uring process - packaging, software, documentation, electronics and mechanic al engineering. This, in turn, increased the size and complexity of the 'dat a package' describing the product, and spread the data over many systems. In one recent assignment, PA found 41 different applications used in a company 's design/engineering process alone, on six different computer platforms, on 10 sites in three countries. The problem for the manufacturer, says Dr Scho field, is whether it is going to get independent advice from any of its comp uter suppliers if it wishes to integrate its systems. PA has attempted to he lp clients through the maze by building its own Cim centre using four comput ers and 12 software applications from nine different suppliers. The aim is t o illustrate the many elements involved in applying Cim to the relatively si mple task of putting parts on to printed circuit boards. Dr Schofield believ es that open systems will be the key to developing progress towards Cim, and says most computer vendors are prepared to accept the inevitability of an o pen environment. 'Manufacturers are getting a lot more help from suppliers, which is all leading to easier integration.' However, he says manufacturers can help solve their integration problems themselves in two ways. The first goes back to the machine tool itself: manufacturers, if they have the clout, can insist that all their machine tool suppliers install the same controlle r. Secondly, manufacturers have to accept that integrated systems can be too heirarchical. 'Where you can have autonomy (in a flexible manufacturing sys tem, for example) you should let it happen. Some failed systems have tried t o make things too rigid.' Indeed studies of the influence of FMS in the US s ince the mid-1980s have shown that it is often a misnomer, since the system may be inflexible in its design and the way in which it is used. Also severa l reports have claimed that systems installed in the US lack the flexibility of those in Japan. A recent report on the US FMS market by Frost & Sullivan , the market research publishers, says worldwide competition is forcing adop tion of flexible manufacturing in a variety of industries, but is becoming i ncreasingly important to batch-oriented manufacturers as product life-cycles shorten and product changes become more frequent. F & S forecasts that sale s of FMS equipment will rise from Dollars 266m in 1990 to Dollars 559m in 19 95 (in constant 1990 dollars). The biggest obstacle to installing equipment is price, and more companies will be starting with the more limited flexible manufacturing cells (FMCs). In the UK, British Aerospace has taken a novel approach to Cim by developing its own manufacturing control system, Cimitar, which provides a sophisticated computerised link between management informa tion systems and shop-floor controllers. BAe began the Cimitar programme in 1983 after discovering that computer companies could not satisfy its large-s cale requirement for shop-floor control systems. A separate company, BAeCAM, was set up in 1988 to develop and market Cimitar worldwide, but Mr Brian En twhistle, general manager, says it was decided from the start to develop a g eneric product that could be sold on the open market. Cimitar, which uses DE C's Vax hardware, is in use throughout BAe but BAeCAM recently signed up Cat erpillar, the US construction equipment group, as a user. Mr Entwhistle hope s this will provide a reference for further US sales. BAeCAM has also instal led part of Cimitar on to an IBM PC that runs a machine tool at BAe, elevati ng it from the normal download of data and selection of tools and satisfying the need for complex communications between the tools and the host computer . As companies continue to grapple with the challenges of Cim, and consultan ts to explain them, its ascendancy is being challenged by another acronym, P im, product information management, alternatively known as EDM, engineering data management. Dr Charles Clarke of London-based Random Computing says tha t, just as Cim was the catalyst for integrating manufacture, so Pim forces t he user to understand the existing process before being able to manage it or use it. The characteristics of Pim/EDM, which has also been described as a short cut to Cim via Cadcam, include data management and control and data na vigation mechanisms, but the aim is enterprise-wide control of information. This, says Dr Charles Clarke, liberates the user and allows true concurrent engineering - designing a product and allowing its manufacture simultaneousl y - for the first time. 'It links the islands of automation that yesterday's manufacturing industry nurtured and constrains the 'paper flow' monster wit h its attendant road-blocks and bottle-necks,' he says with an enthusiasm fo r metaphor rarely found in studies of computers in manufacturing.

The Financial Times London Page II Photograph The British A erospace small parts flexible manufacturing system, Preston, England (Omitte d). ============= Transaction # 88 ============================================== Transaction #: 88 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:30:29 Selec. Rec. #: 17 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-7461 _AN-CHTAOAB4FT 9208 18 FT 18 AUG 92 / Technology: Robots in bulk - Andrew Ba xter describes how the humble warehouse is opening its doors to automation < /HEADLINE> By ANDREW BAXTER Looming over Britis h Steel's tinplate works in a steep valley at Ebbw Vale is a somewhat forbid ding structure. It may not win any architectural awards but its contents hol d the key to a problem that British manufacturers frequently ignore. Over th e past decade, industrialists have modernised their production processes to survive in increasingly competitive markets, but updating the warehouse next door tends to get overlooked. 'Companies worry about the introduction of au tomation that does not come within the sphere of their experience,' says Jac k Haggett, managing director of Haden Technology, the UK warehouse technolog y and logistics company. 'There's a little bit of technofear.' At Ebbw Vale, British Steel decided some six years ago to bring its warehouse up to the s ame technological standard as its production plant by introducing a modern s torage and handling system. The aim, says British Steel, was to achieve a mu ch-improved delivery performance, better stock control, save energy - automa ted systems can work in the dark - and reduce damage by cutting manual inter vention to a minimum. The solution was commissioned in 1990 - a 32-metre-tal l automated highbay warehouse with 14,748 rack locations for tinplate coils and bulks, packed with automatic guided vehicles (AGVs), stacker cranes and conveyers and controlled by a computerised management system linked to the B ritish Steel tinplate computer. With the warehouse fully operational, all th e expected savings have been achieved, says British Steel. Highbay warehouse s sit like giant shoe-boxes on their long sides throughout continental Europ e, but are rather thinner on the ground in the UK. Haggett, whose Letchworth -based company designed the Ebbw Vale system, says Germany is investing 10 t imes as much in automated warehousing as the UK. There are a number of reaso ns for this, he says. Planning problems are a genuine concern in the UK - hi ghbay warehouses may not be rejected outright by planning authorities but of ten have to be enhanced externally, thus raising the cost. UK industry also demands a 20-25 per cent return on its capital, which does not seem to be th e case in Germany, says Haggett. 'There they look at the whole-life cost of whether, for example, it is cheaper to use wheelbarrows or conveyers.' Then again, a cheaper low-rise warehouse may lose some of the efficiency gains of its highbay counterparts, but is easier to convert to other uses. 'That's a perceived problem with highbay warehouses in the UK,' says Haggett. Joachim Miebach, founder of Frankfurt-based Miebach Logistic Systems, offers anothe r reason for the different approach in the UK, where the company has recentl y undertaken a number of big automated warehousing and logistics projects vi a its office in Oxford. 'I have a feeling that in the UK there is some reluc tance to use machinery to solve a warehousing problem, and a preference to u se IT only - barcoding, checking systems and sophisticated inventory control . 'In Switzerland, and especially in Germany, the tendency is to start with the machinery - highbay warehouses and stacker cranes. These have to be auto mated, so IT is a necessary consequence.' The recession has also had a damag ing effect on UK automated warehousing investments, reducing the market to a bout a quarter of its level at the end of the 1980s. However, UK inquiry lev els have recently risen just as continental European business begins to slow . Redressing the balance in the UK will depend partly on companies such as H aden and Miebach raising their profile. 'All our work shows there are tremen dous cost savings from high-tech automated warehousing,' says Haggett. 'But it is hard to break through the barriers.' One way to achieve it is to have allies among the customers. Assuming a company has a fairly high level of ac tivity with fast movement of goods, there then needs to be what Haggett call s a 'crazy man' pushing through fundamental change that is 'off the process' or separate from the main effort to update production technology. For the l ayman, a look inside a highbay warehouse at work might easily bring on an at tack of 'technofear'. Deciding the right combination of the available techno logies, organising equipment purchases from a big range of mainly continenta l suppliers, and taking turnkey responsibility for the warehouse and its int egration with production is a challenging task. Over the past five years, on e of the most important developments in European warehousing has been in att itudes to computer control. Centralised systems controlling all the details have been found to be too costly and time-consuming, leading to a trend towa rds decentralisation with self-contained computer systems for separate wareh ouse functions passing up only the necessary data to the main computer. AGVs , the driverless warhorses of modern warehouses, are also changing, with the traditional wire guidance system being replaced by more sophisticated contr ols. These could either be a robot-style teaching method, where the AGV repe ats a movement automatically after being taken through it manually; or throu gh vision systems which enable the AGV to recognise a pre-programmed route. But prospects for further applications of robots in warehouses are limited. While well-established, and increasingly reliable, at picking and placing la yers of goods, they still have difficulty adapting to the huge variety of go ods found at an average warehouse. Consequently, the trend in warehousing to wards fast delivery of small quantities of goods at high frequencies can be hard for a robot to handle, although they are making a mark in niche markets such as in pharmaceutical warehouses, where packages are more uniform. Comp anies like Haden and Miebach spend a lot of time talking to robotics supplie rs in the hope of pushing for improvements, but the real problem, says Mieba ch, is that 'we have not come across the warehouse robot that can imitate th e movement of the human hand'. Sometimes, though, there are occasions when n o mechanical solutions are necessary. 'There have been times when we've told a client to paint a few lines on the floor, buy a PC with a warehouse manag ement program, and the problem will be solved,' says Haggett. T he Financial Times London Page 10 ============= Transaction # 89 ============================================== Transaction #: 89 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:02 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 90 ============================================== Transaction #: 90 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:20 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 91 ============================================== Transaction #: 91 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:24 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-4774 _AN-CIEASADWFT 9209 04 FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs By ANDREW BAXTER The drive for competitiveness and low-cost production may have made the car industry the natural home for the world's robot population, but Karlheinz Langner and his colleagues at I GM Robotersysteme have other ideas. Langner, a managing board member at Aust ria's only robotics company, has his sights set on industry's heavy brigade. Less visibly than their counterparts in the car industry, but with increasi ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy equipment - anything from excavators to s teel bridge sections - want to improve their product quality and reduce cycl e times, increase their manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla ce. All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by the mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry is very different. In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be en reticent about robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers' sales patter or unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example , a crane boom or bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w elded might be slightly different from the previous one. Or they might simpl y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000 (Pounds 175,000) f or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides, gantries and devi ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15 tonnes. And having purchased a system, some customers have had to solve software problems thems elves to get the robot working correctly. But companies such as IGM, which c elebrates its silver jubilee this year, are spending heavily to find new sol utions for the use of robots in heavy industry, and that, in turn, broadens the market for the robot suppliers. Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i nstance, are only now waking up to the opportunities for using robots, which were simply not available five years ago. Anybody who has visited a modern car factory cannot fail to be impressed by the serried ranks of robots spot welding body sections or inserting dashboards. Such machines, however, are w orlds apart from those produced by IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo us path welding and some cutting robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of the welding equipment industry such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany. A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to cop e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its work ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing. Grappling wit h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes of movement f rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure on the robot s upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical terms but to e nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently sophisticated an d fast to cope. In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's needs is of vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen t problem that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too great for a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that produces a clear product strategy. Each robot supplier has a different appr oach, but IGM's is based on two vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi gn system to allow the company to respond to individual customers' needs wit hout having to reinvent the wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst ems development in-house. Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry requires a combination of developing the business end of the system (the wel ding itself), taking the robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c onstantly updating and improving the control systems. IGM develops welding s ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding equipment company - for th e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is the proof of the pudding. The robot supplier recently introduced a new high-performance welding techni que known as Time (transferred ionised molten energy), developed originally by a Canadian metallurgical expert. IGM has also developed an automatic head change facility, allowing welding to be followed by flame cutting in one co ntinuous cycle. This is being used by a UK customer for welding steel bridge sections. As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near their limit it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors, and the programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This is where the acronyms really begin to proliferate. So-called off-line progr amming, where the robot is set up for the next job without disturbing its pr esent task, is particularly important when it could take many hours, if not days, to start up a new component on a welding robot. IGM's latest contribut ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of production cells and ma nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of the welding cell for each workpiece. Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne w optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication, underlin ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an increasingl y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment. Perhaps the most significant develo pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart of the robot software. In a few wee ks' time, the company will have running a prototype of a new robot controlle r based on the transputer, the Inmos superchip. IGM had realised some five y ears ago that it needed to have a more powerful control system, says Langner , and the new controller will increase control speeds by a factor of 10. The new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also sees a pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of about 5 00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each year for its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner stresses. The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 92 ============================================== Transaction #: 92 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:29 Selec. Rec. #: 19 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT934-8386 _AN-DKPCNACSFT 9311 16 FT 16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide By ANDREW BAXTER At the LVD machin e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw puzzle map of Eu rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a piece of blue fo am rubber about half an inch thick. A long way further east in Ukraine, auto matic dismantling lines designed by Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq uipment group, will soon be in place to begin dismantling more than 200,000 tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition. The link between these two events is w ater. LVD is one of the most recent entrants, while I-R was one of the pione ers in waterjet cutting technology. This process is in use by, or being cons idered by, a wide range of industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston e and glass cutters. So far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th e biggest users of the process. As is also the case with most technologies i nvolving water, the basics of the process are simple. Water is filtered, the n passed through a powerful pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of a nozzle with a diameter varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t o 4,000bar. The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet ween Mach two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo ds, thin wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet c utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems i n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry. B ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest world wide. I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r ival, Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu des companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi nen of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a nd buying in the pumps. ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo w, says Paul Etchells, UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob otised Waterjet Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, the Swiss-Swedish engineering group. 'But the initial problems have been res olved and since the early 1980s, we've had highly reliable systems being use d in high-volume production,' he says. The introduction of abrasives has bee n the main driving force for the industrial development of waterjet cutting. A powdered abrasive known as garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin y mixing chamber before the water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as a carrying agent for the abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a nd does the cutting. This process has coincided with the growing use by auto motive and aerospace companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast ics and composites to aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more accurate cutting than traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti ng with a hot wire. At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c utters were used on titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre viously have been produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing, hand cutting and filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a nd reduced the filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim e taken to polish one part produced by sawing. Aerospace companies have also found that by using waterjets, they can cut composite materials without del aminating the edges. Delamination is an anathema as it can weaken the whole piece: 'It would be like having a piece of cardboard with a wet edge,' says Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing director. The second important development h as been the tie-ups between robotics suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti ng systems, such as the two-year-old ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to a sophisticated, computer-controlled robot, a waterjet can move around and across a three-dimensional part such as a car dashboard, cutting the outline and creating the holes for the instruments. Along with car carpets and head liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards are the most popular applicatio ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive industry. The advantages of waterj et cutting include its flexibility and easy maintenance. It produces no dust or toxic fumes and the component is not affected by heat distortion. There is no cutting tool to wear out, although the nozzle has to be changed occasi onally. But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be reduced by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf ace. Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho ur, the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells. Also , while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is so thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting applicati on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is under way in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet and cont aminated with bits of the component. For thin metals - for example, steel up to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th at, however, laserjets are much slower and rarely used, while the shininess of metals such as copper, brass and aluminium make it possible to cut only v ery thin sheets with lasers. There are occasional problems, too, with the co ntinuation of the waterjet after it has cut through the component. In three- dimensional work, situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t he robot, but cutting in water may provide the solution. Nevertheless, water jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list after more than 20 yea rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have components produced by w aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic waterjet cutting machine s for the tail section supports and other large parts for the new 777 airlin er. In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi ves from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati ng it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big Minnes ota-based munitions manufacturer. LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti ng market through an agreement with ASI last year to market the systems in E urope. The Belgian company is one of the world's biggest producers of machin ery for cutting, punching and bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting as complementary to its laserjet cutters. In September, it introduced the Aq uarius range of machines, mainly for cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe. According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p resident, Europe is a step behind the US in the application of waterjet cutt ing and the process could represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year s. In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat ed with other parts of the production process. This is already happening - A SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate measuring. Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord er from Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts , cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece of equipment. Countries:- USZ United States of Ameri ca. Industries:- P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ es. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. TECH Product s & Product use. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 93 ============================================== Transaction #: 93 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:32 Selec. Rec. #: 19 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT934-8386 _AN-DKPCNACSFT 9311 16 FT 16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide By ANDREW BAXTER At the LVD machin e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw puzzle map of Eu rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a piece of blue fo am rubber about half an inch thick. A long way further east in Ukraine, auto matic dismantling lines designed by Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq uipment group, will soon be in place to begin dismantling more than 200,000 tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition. The link between these two events is w ater. LVD is one of the most recent entrants, while I-R was one of the pione ers in waterjet cutting technology. This process is in use by, or being cons idered by, a wide range of industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston e and glass cutters. So far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th e biggest users of the process. As is also the case with most technologies i nvolving water, the basics of the process are simple. Water is filtered, the n passed through a powerful pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of a nozzle with a diameter varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t o 4,000bar. The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet ween Mach two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo ds, thin wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet c utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems i n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry. B ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest world wide. I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r ival, Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu des companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi nen of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a nd buying in the pumps. ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo w, says Paul Etchells, UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob otised Waterjet Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, the Swiss-Swedish engineering group. 'But the initial problems have been res olved and since the early 1980s, we've had highly reliable systems being use d in high-volume production,' he says. The introduction of abrasives has bee n the main driving force for the industrial development of waterjet cutting. A powdered abrasive known as garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin y mixing chamber before the water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as a carrying agent for the abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a nd does the cutting. This process has coincided with the growing use by auto motive and aerospace companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast ics and composites to aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more accurate cutting than traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti ng with a hot wire. At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c utters were used on titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre viously have been produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing, hand cutting and filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a nd reduced the filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim e taken to polish one part produced by sawing. Aerospace companies have also found that by using waterjets, they can cut composite materials without del aminating the edges. Delamination is an anathema as it can weaken the whole piece: 'It would be like having a piece of cardboard with a wet edge,' says Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing director. The second important development h as been the tie-ups between robotics suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti ng systems, such as the two-year-old ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to a sophisticated, computer-controlled robot, a waterjet can move around and across a three-dimensional part such as a car dashboard, cutting the outline and creating the holes for the instruments. Along with car carpets and head liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards are the most popular applicatio ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive industry. The advantages of waterj et cutting include its flexibility and easy maintenance. It produces no dust or toxic fumes and the component is not affected by heat distortion. There is no cutting tool to wear out, although the nozzle has to be changed occasi onally. But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be reduced by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf ace. Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho ur, the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells. Also , while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is so thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting applicati on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is under way in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet and cont aminated with bits of the component. For thin metals - for example, steel up to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th at, however, laserjets are much slower and rarely used, while the shininess of metals such as copper, brass and aluminium make it possible to cut only v ery thin sheets with lasers. There are occasional problems, too, with the co ntinuation of the waterjet after it has cut through the component. In three- dimensional work, situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t he robot, but cutting in water may provide the solution. Nevertheless, water jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list after more than 20 yea rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have components produced by w aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic waterjet cutting machine s for the tail section supports and other large parts for the new 777 airlin er. In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi ves from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati ng it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big Minnes ota-based munitions manufacturer. LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti ng market through an agreement with ASI last year to market the systems in E urope. The Belgian company is one of the world's biggest producers of machin ery for cutting, punching and bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting as complementary to its laserjet cutters. In September, it introduced the Aq uarius range of machines, mainly for cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe. According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p resident, Europe is a step behind the US in the application of waterjet cutt ing and the process could represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year s. In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat ed with other parts of the production process. This is already happening - A SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate measuring. Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord er from Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts , cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece of equipment. Countries:- USZ United States of Ameri ca. Industries:- P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ es. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. TECH Product s & Product use. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 94 ============================================== Transaction #: 94 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:34 Selec. Rec. #: 19 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT934-8386 _AN-DKPCNACSFT 9311 16 FT 16 NOV 93 / Technology: Industry on the cutting ed ge - The waterjet process has come of age and is creating interest worldwide By ANDREW BAXTER At the LVD machin e tool factory in Belgium, engineers have produced a jigsaw puzzle map of Eu rope, adorned with the company logo, that has been cut on a piece of blue fo am rubber about half an inch thick. A long way further east in Ukraine, auto matic dismantling lines designed by Ingersoll-Rand, the big US industrial eq uipment group, will soon be in place to begin dismantling more than 200,000 tons of surplus Ukrainian ammunition. The link between these two events is w ater. LVD is one of the most recent entrants, while I-R was one of the pione ers in waterjet cutting technology. This process is in use by, or being cons idered by, a wide range of industries from fish-finger manufacturers to ston e and glass cutters. So far, automotive and aerospace companies have been th e biggest users of the process. As is also the case with most technologies i nvolving water, the basics of the process are simple. Water is filtered, the n passed through a powerful pump and intensifier. It is then squeezed out of a nozzle with a diameter varying from 0.1mm to 0.3mm, at a pressure of up t o 4,000bar. The result is a stream of water travelling at speeds ranging bet ween Mach two and three. Alone, the water will cut through paper, frozen foo ds, thin wood, car interiors, sponge and rubber and certain plastics, but if abrasives are added it will cut through steel up to 150mm thick. Waterjet c utting is not that new - I-R introduced its first waterjet cutting systems i n 1971 and found some of its first applications in the furniture industry. B ut the technology has come of age and is generating increased interest world wide. I-R is one of the leading players, along with another pioneer and US r ival, Flow International. This pair dominates the industry, which also inclu des companies such as Indiana-based ASI Robotic Systems and Bystronic Maschi nen of Switzerland. There are many smaller players offering niche products a nd buying in the pumps. ln the 1970s, the system was perceived to be too slo w, says Paul Etchells, UK, Ireland and Benelux sales manager for ABB I-R Rob otised Waterjet Systems, a joint venture between I-R and Asea Brown Boveri, the Swiss-Swedish engineering group. 'But the initial problems have been res olved and since the early 1980s, we've had highly reliable systems being use d in high-volume production,' he says. The introduction of abrasives has bee n the main driving force for the industrial development of waterjet cutting. A powdered abrasive known as garnet is introduced through a tube into a tin y mixing chamber before the water leaves the nozzle. The water then acts as a carrying agent for the abrasive, which moves almost as fast as the water a nd does the cutting. This process has coincided with the growing use by auto motive and aerospace companies of materials ranging from sophisticated plast ics and composites to aluminium and titanium. It has offered faster and more accurate cutting than traditional methods such as sawing, routing, or cutti ng with a hot wire. At Rockwell International, for example, I-R's waterjet c utters were used on titanium components for the B-1B bomber, which would pre viously have been produced through a four-stage process of inking, scribing, hand cutting and filing. Waterjet cutting eliminated the first two stages a nd reduced the filing, so that 12 parts could be cut and finished in the tim e taken to polish one part produced by sawing. Aerospace companies have also found that by using waterjets, they can cut composite materials without del aminating the edges. Delamination is an anathema as it can weaken the whole piece: 'It would be like having a piece of cardboard with a wet edge,' says Ivan Lockett, LVD's UK managing director. The second important development h as been the tie-ups between robotics suppliers and vendors of waterjet cutti ng systems, such as the two-year-old ABB I-R joint venture. Once attached to a sophisticated, computer-controlled robot, a waterjet can move around and across a three-dimensional part such as a car dashboard, cutting the outline and creating the holes for the instruments. Along with car carpets and head liners - the inside of the roof - dashboards are the most popular applicatio ns for waterjet cutting in the automotive industry. The advantages of waterj et cutting include its flexibility and easy maintenance. It produces no dust or toxic fumes and the component is not affected by heat distortion. There is no cutting tool to wear out, although the nozzle has to be changed occasi onally. But there are drawbacks. The process is noisy, although that can be reduced by cutting underwater - with the component just below the water surf ace. Although the basic running cost without abrasive is only Pounds 3 an ho ur, the cost rises to Pounds 10-Pounds 18 with abrasive, says Etchells. Also , while the process uses very small amounts of water, because the jet is so thin, the abrasive cannot be recycled, and a typical metal-cutting applicati on will use 1kg every three minutes, according to LVD. Research is under way in Germany to find ways to recycle the abrasive, which ends up wet and cont aminated with bits of the component. For thin metals - for example, steel up to 16mm - cutting with a laserjet can be five to 10 times faster. Beyond th at, however, laserjets are much slower and rarely used, while the shininess of metals such as copper, brass and aluminium make it possible to cut only v ery thin sheets with lasers. There are occasional problems, too, with the co ntinuation of the waterjet after it has cut through the component. In three- dimensional work, situations can arise where the jet will damage a part of t he robot, but cutting in water may provide the solution. Nevertheless, water jet cutting has built up an impressive reference list after more than 20 yea rs. Most US-built airliners, for example, will have components produced by w aterjet. Boeing will be using three big ASI robotic waterjet cutting machine s for the tail section supports and other large parts for the new 777 airlin er. In I-R's Ukrainian contract, high-pressure waterjets will remove explosi ves from tank ammunition artillery shells and mortar rounds without detonati ng it. The machines have been ordered by Alliant Techsystems, the big Minnes ota-based munitions manufacturer. LVD, meanwhile, entered the waterjet cutti ng market through an agreement with ASI last year to market the systems in E urope. The Belgian company is one of the world's biggest producers of machin ery for cutting, punching and bending sheet metal and sees waterjet cutting as complementary to its laserjet cutters. In September, it introduced the Aq uarius range of machines, mainly for cutting flat surfaces, but will also ma rket ASI's 3-D systems in Europe. According to Jean-Pierre Lefebvre, LVD's p resident, Europe is a step behind the US in the application of waterjet cutt ing and the process could represent 10 per cent of LVD's business in 10 year s. In the future, waterjet cutting is likely to become increasingly integrat ed with other parts of the production process. This is already happening - A SI's system for the 777 tail section, for example, inspects the parts after they are cut, using a probe from Renishaw of the UK to carry out co-ordinate measuring. Not to be outdone, the ABB I-R joint venture recently won an ord er from Statoil Europarts, based in Sweden, for a robotised system that cuts , cleans, washes and dries vehicle instrument panels. It claims that this is the first time all four operations have been carried out in the same piece of equipment. Countries:- USZ United States of Ameri ca. Industries:- P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Typ es. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. TECH Product s & Product use. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 95 ============================================== Transaction #: 95 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:39 Selec. Rec. #: 20 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-8115 _AN-CENCNAF8FT 9205 14 FT 14 MAY 92 / Technology: Shifting to high gear - Co mputer-aided design is finding new roles in countless productions across the world By ANDREW BAXTER Cadcam may no longer be in its infancy, but after the heady growth rates of the early 1 980s the market for computer-aided design and manufacturing equipment and so ftware still looks a long way short of reaching maturity. While other sector s of manufacturing technology languish in recession, the world Cadcam market grew more than 10 per cent last year to Dollars 16bn, according to Dataques t, and will reach nearly Dollars 25bn (Pounds 14bn) in 1995 - a compound ann ual growth rate of 12 per cent since 1990. The importance of Cadcam, and in particular 3D solid modelling, to concurrent engineering - the team approach to cutting product development times and improving quality - makes it virtu ally a necessity in mechanical engineering. But other applications of Cadcam are now expanding faster, even though huge untapped opportunities remain in the dominant mechanical sector. Meanwhile, the industry is adjusting to muc h higher predicted growth rates for software than for the hardware that it r uns on, and forming partnerships with industrial users to understand their n eeds better. All these trends are illustrated in current strategy at Matra D atavision, the biggest European-owned Cadcam supplier. And Michel Neuve Egli se, chairman and chief executive, is hoping for annual growth of 20-25 per c ent over the next few years at the Paris-based subsidiary of Matra. Achievin g that, and pushing Matra Datavision up the US-dominated league table of big players in the industry, will depend on recent initiatives at the 13-year-o ld company, whose success has been built on its Euclid-IS mechanical Cadcam software which produced the Renault Espace (right). As Cadcam hardware becom es a commodity item, companies such as Matra are trying to boost the share o f revenues represented by software. The in-phrase at Matra, therefore, is wh at Victor Waknine, president and chief operating officer, calls the 'softwar e factory' approach to help penetrate new markets and develop existing ones. A key element is a new generation of Case (computer-aided software engineer ing) tools designed to build the company's own factory of applications softw are, help Euclid users change their applications, and provide new applicatio n solutions for independent software houses. The product, for complex assemb ly design, will be available next year. A second initiative is a new entry-l evel solid-modelling system, Prelude/Solids, designed to attract companies c urrently using 2D or 3D-wireframe-based systems - surface modelling which is like stretching clingfilm across a wireframe but does not completely define an object in 3D as occurs with solid modelling. The ability, for example, t o compute masses and moments of inertia makes solid modelling a powerful too l for reducing product development times. Matra is launching Prelude in the US - a good testing ground, says Waknine, for a mass-market product. It is d esigned to attack low-cost software such as AutoCAD, the Autodesk flagship p roduct. But Matra also has its eye on the emerging market for 'conceptual en gineering,' where the very earliest design sketches can be captured on compu ter, thus saving more time in the product development process by eliminating the 'back-of-an envelope' stage. Prelude's compatibility with Euclid-IS is an important element here, Waknine believes. Prelude is being launched in th e US to correct Matra Datavision's weakness in a market where it sees consid erable growth for 3D solid modelling. The US and Asia are the main areas of planned expansion for the company, although other markets have potential. Th e UK looks encouraging, with turnover up 40 per cent last year to Pounds 1.4 m, and expected to rise to Pounds 2.4m in 1992. Currently 80 per cent of Mat ra's installed base is in Europe, 15 per cent in North America and 5 per cen t in Asia, but Waknine hopes to increase Asian and North American shares to 20 per cent each by 1995. According to Matra, European manufacturers have re alised the benefits of 3D solid modelling earlier than their counterparts in the US and Japan, because of the need for increased productivity in manufac turing, and education that has made possible a better grasp of the mathemati cal principles. But US and Japanese demand has been strong in the past two y ears, says Waknine, and solid modelling is becoming mandatory in Japan. Acco rdingly, Matra is rapidly expanding its US distribution network, and last ye ar it signed an agreement for NEC to distribute Euclid-IS in Japan. Elsewher e in Asia, the company is negotiating two joint ventures, one in China and a nother with a big industrial concern outside China. It has begun co-operatin g with the Chinese space agency, and sees enormous potential even if it can convert only a small percentage of 20,000 engineers to Euclid. Other regions are likely to require more patience, says Waknine. In the former Soviet Uni on, he says, large companies have realised the potential of solid modelling - helped by the unofficial import of pirated western software - but are rest ricted by financial difficulties. Matra is exploring barter deals to enable it to sell to the former Soviet Union, and earlier this year took an indirec t stake in Mazintergixi, a joint venture distribution company. According to Dataquest figures, Matra is the world's eighth largest supplier of software in the mechanical Cadcam market for workstations, the most important hardwar e 'platform,' but Neuve Eglise has ambitions to push the company into the to p five. That could be tough, according to Petra Gartzen, Dataquest analyst. 'Matra have a very good product and are doing the right things, but the mech anical Cadcam market is not showing the same growth rates as other sectors b ecause of conditions in manufacturing. That makes it very difficult for any company to increase its market share.' However, Matra's greater emphasis on software for the mechanical market, which is forecast to grow twice as fast as the hardware, should help. Matra is also expanding into the faster-growin g architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) sector of Cadcam through a system developed by Framatome, the French power plant builder. Unlike man y AEC systems, says Gartzen, the Framatome system is targeted towards plant design, where there are big opportunities in the European Community because of environmental legislation. --------------------------------------------- -------------------------- WORDLWIDE CADCAM MARKET ------------------------ ----------------------------------------------- 1990 91 92 93 94 95 Compound Cadcam (dollars bn) growth ------------------------------------ ----------------------------------- All applications all platforms 14 .36 15.79 17.95 20.03 22.36 24.96 12% Hardware 7.96 8. 50 9.63 10.45 11.41 12.39 9% Software 4.07 7.42 5.4 4 6.35 7.33 8.49 16% Services 2.33 2.57 2.88 3.23 3.62 4.08 12% ------------------------------------------------------ ----------------- Source: Dataquest --------------------------------------- -------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 15 ============= Transaction # 96 ============================================== Transaction #: 96 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:46 Selec. Rec. #: 21 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-2788 _AN-CLKB5AHSFT 9212 10 FT 10 DEC 92 / Survey of Software at Work - Winter 19 92 (6): Rapid route to creativity - Claire Gooding looks at the origins of c omputer aided design and how the latest systems are cutting the cost of tech nical design for industry / Computer aided design By CLAIRE GOODING MOST computer users have PCs, workstations, or terminals: users of computer aided design (CAD) systems have 'seats.' Wh ile the computer world has a language all its own, the CAD world has a diale ct more baffling than most (see buzzwords, below). Largely used by engineers , architects and designers, the measurement of CAD systems in seats goes bac k to the time when they were extremely expensive and demanded the purchase o f dedicated hardware that would be unlikely to perform any other task. As th e term implies, a 'seat' could be shared between several occupants, highly-q ualified people who would have to acquire another skill, that of using a com puter. In the early 1980s, CAD was 'standalone.' The hardware and software w ere 'dedicated,' and their users were in a world of their own. Presenting a picture on a screen was a heavy task for a computer: manipulating and rotati ng it involved the constant high-speed re-calculation of co-ordinates. In th e past this was mainframe work, or at least involved a dedicated minicompute r. Suppliers such as Prime, ICL, with Perq systems and Apollo, with Domain s ystems dominated a small and specialist market. Now there is a much wider ma rketplace, reflected by its own thriving trade press (see references, page 1 0) and a trade show now in its ninth year - CADCAM 93, at Birmingham NEC fro m March 9th-11th, 1993, has already attracted more than 200 exhibitors. It i ncludes software, hardware, services, and peripherals - another specialised CAD area because plotters for A1-size paper are unlikely to be used with any other application. The dominant names are now Autodesk, which has its own ' expo' at the show, and Sun Microsystems, the supplier of workstations, with its own 'village.' Cambashi, a Cambridge consultancy which specialises in co mputer-aided technologies and market research, identifies Autodesk, EDS, Hew lett Packard, IBM and Intergraph among the leading vendors (see table, page 10). The market is still concentrated in the hands of a handful of companies , in terms of products purchased. Cambashi also identifies a more complex ma rketplace, where middle-men and value-added resellers (VARs) play a much lar ger part in sales. It estimates that in 1991, end-users in the UK spent Poun ds 445m on CAD systems; about half on hardware, and the remainder split more or less equally between software and services. This is some advance on the mid-eighties, when an internal IBM report on CAD marked the UK behind Sweden in the number of CAD installations. With falling hardware prices, CAD has b een able to reach a larger marketplace. Large users such as Ove Arup, the en gineering consultancy which developed its own CAD software at one time, have seen the price plummet, from around Pounds 80,000 to Pounds 6,000 per seat, in a few years. Rising maintenance charges on old kit fuels the spend on ne w, more powerful and essentially cheaper systems. Jenny Jacobsberg, consulta nt at Cambashi, makes a distinction in her measurements of CAD usage between penetration, (the number of companies buying CAD units), and 'saturation', the number of skilled people within the company using the system. By the end of 1991, there were 67,000 installations, (compared to 35,500 four years ag o), with a potential 300,000 end-users: a saturation of 22.3 per cent. Appli cations using only two dimensional (2D) representation are stagnating, those using 3D are on the increase. 'The UK still has long way to go when it come s to spreading the usage inside the company' she says. 'To get to the stage where every user has a workstation dedicated to them alone, there will have to be a significant change of culture.' It is still rare to find large-scale projects like Ove Arup's Glaxo campus, relying entirely on CAD, with one wo rkstation per worker. The advent of the PC changed people's expectations: th ey wanted faster, smarter, easier-to-use systems. Many Macintosh and PC-base d solutions have enabled smaller companies to use CAD for the first time. Th e edges have even become blurred about what is - and isn't - CAD. If it's fr iendly and easy to use, it may not qualify as CAD, which tends to be associa ted with professional mysteries - 'anything that smacks of CAD frightens peo ple,' says Mick Pitt, managing director of a company called Scimus whose Doo dle product has been used in everything from lace design to fire reports and graphics of car crashes in insurance claims. 'The actual skills needed for technical design are quite high and time-consuming. We're trying to get peop le to understand that they needn't be frightened of making mistakes, they ca n change and reproduce things at will on the screen. Some people dispute tha t Doodle is a CAD product at all, but we see it as a link between CAD and de sktop publishing, accessible to everyone from seven years old upwards.' Rath er as the telephone, and more recently, the fax machine, gained in value as more and more people adopted the technology, CAD systems start delivering re al value as more and more people use them. Users can swap dimensions, drawin gs, and volumes of information whose accuracy is vital to the job, via excha nge of floppy discs, through the standard IGES (Initial Graphics Exchange Sp ecification) transfer mechanism, or through EDM (electronic data management) . This facility is so important that it has spawned a centre of expertise in Leeds: CADETSI (CADCAM Data Exchange Technical Centre). Standards, an issue that flickers and burns constantly throughout the computer industry, is alr eady a concern among CAD users. 'It depends on the company' says Jenny Jacob sberg. ' The bigger the organisation, and the more customers or suppliers th ey deal with, the more important standards will be. Another factor in the ex change of information within one company is a mixture of hardware platforms and software packages. A smaller company which gone down the PC or IBM-speci fic route might find it less of an issue.' In specific industries, such as t he automative industry, the move towards EDM has forced most suppliers down a standard route. Which 'standard' product they acquire, IBM's Catia or Comp utervision's CADDS product, will be dictated by their customer. The whole in dustry has moved forward through collaboration and agreement. The Husat Rese arch Institute (Human Sciences and Advanced Technology) is involved in two s uch projects: RACE (Research and Development on Advanced Communications in E urope) and CAR, (CAD/CAM in the Automative Industry in RACE). In the archite cture market, AutoCAD has achieved such penetration that it is spawning any number of independently produced add-ons and extensions. Yet, says Mrs Jacob sberg of Cambashi, 'there is no such thing as an industry standard.' There a re however, favoured solutions in different vertical markets - 'there is an increasing requirement for industry-specific solutions, so vendors have iden tified the opportunities and are coming up with tailored packages.' Not surp risingly, the computer industry itself has been among the first to recognise and use the potential. Hewlett Packard, for instance, uses Genrad's SYSHILO products in the development of its latest Integrated Circuits, to model, si mulate and verify these complex components before actual implementation. Use rs are beginning to realise that computer aided design is just the tip of th e iceberg. Connected with other technologies - including quality control, ro botics, and recently, with desktop publishing, (see case study on United Gla ss, page 16) - CAD can remove many of the overheads (but not the skills) of creativity. What users think about their CAD systems: see back page. REFEREN CES: CADD Magazine, tel 071 404 0564. CADCAM Magazine, tel 071 251 6222. CAD CAM 93 NEC March 9-11th 1993, contact Lisa Parrett, tel 071 404 4844. Cambas hi reports: Marketing Managers Handbook 1991: Analysis of UK CADCAM market. Also CIME/CIE vertical markets in Europe, available from Cambashi, tel 0223 460439. Scimus, London, tel 081 546 9670. GenRad, tel 0329 822240. Husat, te l 0509 611088. CADETSI, Leeds, tel 0532 305005. The Financial T imes London Page VIII ============= Transaction # 97 ============================================== Transaction #: 97 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:31:53 Selec. Rec. #: 22 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-140 _AN-BENBQACVFT 91051 4 FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1 ): Japanese still set the pace - The importance of the human element in the production process permeates Japanese methods. Now Western companies are beg inning to appreciate that there is a limit to what the computer can do to he lp the manufacturers By ALAN CANE M ANUFACTURING methods have changed profoundly in the US and Europe over the p ast few years. The adoption of total quality control and just-in-time techni ques have proven necessary to compete with Japanese manufacturers, whose fun damentally different approach has set standards of efficiency and quality We stern manufacturers are still striving to emulate. A comparative study of mo tor car manufacture in the US and Japan published recently by the Massachuse tts Institute of Technology makes the point powerfully. General Motors' plan t in Framingham in the US takes 31 hours to assemble a car. There are 135 de fects in every 100 cars and a two week inventory of parts. Toyota's Takaoka plant in Japan produces a car every 16 hours with on 45 faults per 100 cars. Its inventory is sufficient to sustain production for a mere two hours. The West's struggle to compete with Japan's growing manufacturing superiority h as been marked by false starts and expensive excursions up technological bli nd alleys. Western companies failed initially to understand the nature of th e difference in manufacturing philosophies, believing that low labour costs and heavy use of technology were the answer. In fact, with the appreciation of the yen, Japan's labour costs are not all that different from its Western competitors. Japanese manufacturers certainly use computers but sparingly, preferring to design their products to suit them for manufacture, rather tha n the other way about. They build quality into their products rather than in spect later for faults. Responsibility for quality control is entrusted to t he production worker rather than the Western-style quality control departmen t. Increasingly, the trend is to parallelism or concurrent engineering, wher e customer requirements, product design, manufacturing technology and cost a ccountancy proceed in parallel and information is continuously fed back to m odify the manufacturing processes. These ideas of design for manufacture and respect for the contribution individuals can make to manufacturing quality permeate Japanese manufacturing methods. They are now diffusing to the West and are the essential backcloth against which the growing use of computers i n manufacturing must be seen. Computer systems for manufacturers are supplie d by computer makers rather than traditional machine tool companies. Hardwar e comes from companies such as IBM, ICL, Digital Equipment, Hewlett Packard, and Bull Software is supplied by companies such as Istel Automation, Kewill Systems and Prime Computers among a host of others. All agree that with mos t Western economies exhibiting weakness, if not actual recession, business i s tough: 'but not as bad as it's made out to be' according to Mr Peter Willi s of IBM. Mr Graham McKenzie, technical unit manager for Digital Equipment i n the UK says that buyers are focusing on the business benefits of installin g computer systems. The industry is not helped by the continuing difficulty the accountancy profession has found in cost justifying investment in modern computer equipment. A detailed study of the US valve industry by Dr Peter W eill called Do Computers Pay Off?, (ICIT Press, 1990) concluded that the rel ationship between computer investment and manufacturing was circular: 'It wa s not possible to identify the unique contribution of any particular year of IT investment. It is not clear that this can ever be achieved statistically '. The advent of the microprocessor, by making available virtually unlimited computer power at low cost, has given manufacturers a wide range of powerfu l, computer-based technologies which can be deployed on the factory floor as well as the back office. There is computer aided design (Cad), pioneered by aerospace and computer manufacturers, which provides not only an electronic drawing board, but also product design information. Computer aided engineer ing (CAE) automates the design process making it possible to test the validi ty of a design before moving to the prototype stage. Computer aided manufact uring (Cam) involves a range of intelligent shop-floor machinery including r obots, numerically controlled machine tools, flexible manufacturing centres and automated handling systems. Much of this is taken for granted. Mr Brian Small, managing director of Ingersoll Engineers, a UK manufacturing consulta ncy, says that manufacturing computers today look like and are bought like c onventional machine tools. Convenience and simplicity of purchase does not g uarantee success in operation however and there are serious dangers in assum ing that manufacturing problems yield to an injection of technology. The Str athclyde Institute, an independent manufacturing consultancy warns in a rece nt report: 'Many people equate improved competitiveness in manufacture with the application of state-of-the-art technology such as powerful computer sys tems, MRP, Cad and robotics. While it may be advantageous or necessary for a company to apply these and other enabling technologies in pursuit of excell ence, this should only be as part of an overall company strategy.'* 'If such technologies are applied to a company without cognisance of the needs or ef fects on other areas, at present or in the future, then it may be difficult if not impossible to integrate the patchwork of systems across the company.' Integration is the important word in manufacturing automation. The goal for forward looking companies is computer integrated manufacture (Cim), an over used piece of jargon with many definitions. One comprehensive definition fro m the Strathclyde Institute is: 'an amalgam of computer aided engineering an d drafting, computer aided manufacturing, flexible manufacturing systems, to oling and quality support systems, in-process gauging and automated final in spection, automated storage and materials handling, and operations control w ithin a business information system.' Mr Willis of IBM warns, however, that too often the 'i' in Cim stands for interconnection rather than integration. There has to be, he explains, an underlying Cim architecture: 'To complete a 1,000-piece jigsaw, you have to have all the pieces and a picture on the b ox.' There is probably not a single true Cim operation anywhere in the world . Cell manufacture is emerging as one of the biggest steps towards integrate d manufacture. A survey by Ingersoll Engineers** suggests that over half of the UK's engineering companies have implemented cell manufacture in some par t of their business. Cells are self-contained manufacturing units with the m achines, controls, people and support needed to make a finished product comp lete with payment schemes, incentives, performance measurements and accounta bility. 'Well over 90 per cent of manufacturers who have implemented cells h ave seen an improvement in performance and 40 per cent describe the improvem ent as significant. Fewer than 2 per cent have abandoned the approach,' says Ingersoll. Computer technology has a part to play in the flow of informatio n necessary to support and underpin these developments. Successful manufactu rers in the 1990s, however, will emphasise the human dimension: 'What do you need to do the job?' will replace the order 'Look after that machine]' *Com puter Integrated Manufacture for the Engineering Industry, The Strathclyde I nstitute 1990, Financial Times Business Information, 071-799 2002. **Competi tive Manufacturing - the quiet revolution, Ingersoll Engineers, 1990, 0926 4 27088. The Financial Times London Page I Illustra tion (Omitted). Photograph (Omitted). Photograph Humans still have a part to play in computerised manufacturing: Nissan's Murayama plant in Japan (left) and Jaguar's Browns Lane facility in Coventry (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 98 ============================================== Transaction #: 98 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:05 Selec. Rec. #: 23 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-3396 _AN-DCPCCAF7FT 9303 16 FT 16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac ture (7): A world built on silicon - Paul Taylor keeps abreast of the bewild ering changes in technology By PAUL TAYLOR OVER the past decade the electronics revolution has reached almost a ll industries enabling the development of a wide range of new consumer and b usiness products and services. The personal computer, fax machines, satellit e television, mobile telephony, medical scanners, compact-disc players, anti -lock brakes and engine management systems for cars are among the many produ cts which have been made possible by recent advances in semiconductor techno logy. Even more sophisticated applications will soon emerge, including perso nal communicators, video-telephones, crash avoidance systems and car navigat ion aids. The pace of change is accelerating and silicon technology will con tinue to be the engine of change and innovation. Higher-speed devices will b e integrated and packed closer, in smaller, more complex and reliable packag es which cost less. But to turn these basic building blocks into useful prod ucts requires very expensive specialist machinery, expert knowledge and the application of the latest computerised techniques. Many large companies whos e core business is not primarily electronics will lack state-of-the-art equi pment and expertise to take advantage of these changes. Others will focus on design and marketing rather than manufacture. In either case the opportunit ies for the specialist contract electronics manufacturer are substantial. Pe rhaps more than any other single factor the growth of contract electronics m anufacturing has been fuelled by advances in technology - and by the switch to SMT (surface mount technology) in particular. From the late 1950s, when t ransistors and printed circuit boards (PCBs) replaced valves, until the mid- 1980s almost all PCBs were assembled using conventional PIH/PTH (pin-in-hole or plated-through-hole) technology. Individual components are inserted eith er by hand or automatically into plated holes in the circuit board and molte n solder is then forced up through the hole using a 'wave' solder machine. W hen the solder dries it attaches each component to the circuitry on the boar d. However, since the mid 1980s, SMT has become increasingly popular. In SMT solder paste - a putty-like mixture of minute solder balls mixed with flux - is screen printed on to circuit terminals or pads on the circuit board. Th e ICs (integrated circuits) and other miniature components are placed, or 'o nsetted', on to the solder paste using highly accurate automatic placement e quipment. The solder paste is then melted or 'reflowed' which creates the jo int between the component and the circuit board. SMT has some significant ad vantages over the traditional method. These include smaller size, increased automation, lower production costs, better performance and higher reliabilit y. However there are also some disadvantages. In particular, SMT 'pick and p lace' equipment must be very accurate, requires skilled programming and is c ostly. A typical automated high volume SMT line costs around Pounds 1m, a si gnificant barrier to entry in the contract manufacturing business and an inc entive for OEMs to subcontract their electronics manufacturing. Mr Derek Duf fett, director of the Association of Contract electronics Manufacturers (ACe M), recently noted that the advent of SMT had raised the investment level ne eded to enter the business and was one of the major reasons for the trend to wards contract electronics manufacturing. According to figures from Motorola , the US electronics group, two years ago 70 per cent of the world consumpti on of integrated circuits was for PTH components. About 20 per cent was of S MT components with the remaining 10 per cent shared by other emerging techno logies. Reflecting the fact that contract electronics manufacturers tend to be at the leading edge of technology, many in the UK already report that SMT output has overtaken traditional PTH, although a lot of boards are hybrids - combining both technologies. The switch to SMT has often been overstated, but most industry participants believe that by 1995 about half of all compon ents sold will be of the SMT variety, and that by the end of the decade SMT will have emerged as the clearly dominant technology. Nevertheless by then o ther new technologies which have been in the development stage for many year s will have also reached the market. They are needed because the performance and density requirements of electronics systems will begin to exceed the ca pabilities of discrete chip packaging, like SMT. To overcome this will requi re new 'interconnection techniques'. The latest new technique, which is alre ady being used in the electronics industry in Japan, the US and occasionally in the UK, is called TAB (tape automated bonding). In this method a lead fr ame is attached to 'bumps' on the edge of the silicon chip in a process know n as 'inner lead bonding'. The chip and its leads are then sealed or encapsu lated in a glue-like substance called 'glob-top' and mounted on a reel, simi lar to a 35mm camera film. These tiny devices can also be placed on to littl e trays called 'slide carriers'. The components are then attached to a circu it board using thermo-sonic means or conventional reflow soldering. Another packaging method called COB (chip on board) is very similar to TAB but no le ad frame is used. Instead the tiny silicon chip is placed directly on to the circuit board or 'substrate' and then attached using a special 'die attach' glue. Individual wires are then bonded to terminals on the chip and connect ed to the pads on the substrate. The whole assembly is then encapsulated in glob-top. Both TAB and COB provide greatly improved electrical performance t han earlier technologies and allow increased component packing densities on the board - leading either to smaller boards or greater functionality. By th e end of the decade they are expected to account for up to one fifth of all component sales. The latest packaging technology is called MCM (multi chip m odule). An MCM is made up of several bare silicon chips mounted on the subst rate. Then, using COB techniques, the chips or 'die' are connected to circui try much smaller and more carefully routed than those on PCBs. These MCMs pr ovide much higher performance than the same chips mounted conventionally on a circuit board. In addition to these changing methods of assembly, the prin ted circuit board itself is also changing. Already TFT (thick-film technolog y), flexible circuits and three-dimensional substrates have emerged as means to further increase component density. Using these new technologies require s even more complex factory infrastructure and sophisticated handling techni ques. Optical recognition and correction systems on the machines which place the components become more necessary as the space between leads (the pitch) becomes narrower. At the same time this places even more stringent demands on manufacturers' processes and quality improvement programmes such as zero defect and statistical process control (SPC), both advanced quality manufact uring techniques increasingly required by customers. This in turn means most manufacturers invest very heavily in sophisticated automatic testing equipm ent. In order to achieve the greatest efficiency and flexibility with their equipment many contract manufacturers have installed electronic data exchang e (EDI) and computer management systems which often tie into those of their customers and suppliers. Meanwhile, in order to keep up with the advances in silicon technology manufacturers must update and replace their equipment fr equently. This means there is often little time to recover capital costs and considerable pressure to keep the machinery working 24 hours a day. But alt hough speed is an important factor in choosing equipment, manufacturers also stress the need for reliability, capability and flexibility. Finally, altho ugh electronics generally has a good environmental record, electronics manuf acturers, including those in the contract industry, are having to focus on e nvironmental issues. For example the use of chloro-fluorocarbons (CFCs) in t he cleaning stage of SMT board assembly is being phased out. TERMINOLOGY ASI C: Application Specific Integrated Circuit COB: Chip on Board DIP: Dual in L ine Package IC: Integrated Circuit MCM: Multi Chip Module PCB: Printed Circu it Board PIH/PTH: Pin-in-Hole/Plated-Through-Hole QFP: Quad Flat Pack SMT: S urface Mount Technology SOIC: Small Outline Integrated Circuit TAB: Tape Aut omated Bonding Countries:- XAZ World. Ind ustries:- P36 Electronic and Other Electric Equipment. Types:- TECH Technology. CMMT Comment & Analysis.

The Financial Times London Page 36 ============= Transaction # 99 ============================================== Transaction #: 99 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:22 Selec. Rec. #: 24 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-13379 _AN-CGNBPAC4FT 920 714 FT 14 JUL 92 / Survey of World Automotive Components (1): Going gets even tougher - As car and truck makers seek ways to shore u p their sagging profitability, the components industry is experiencing painf ul shock waves / Assessment of the prospects for manufacturers facing up to an era of restructuring By KEVIN DONE THE competitive screw is being tightened remorselessly on the world's aut omotive components suppliers, as car and truck makers seek urgently for ways to shore up their sagging profitability. With bought-in components usually accounting for at least 50 per cent of the costs of a car - Ford purchases a lone totalled nearly Dollars 53bn in 1990 - it is little coincidence that th e vehicle assemblers look first to squeeze their suppliers, when the going g ets tough. The resulting shock waves that pass through the automotive compon ents industry are being felt most painfully by the army of suppliers to Gene ral Motors, the world's largest vehicle maker, who are still trying to come to terms with the latest convulsions in Detroit, as GM seeks to staunch its record losses. GM is looking to global components sourcing as one of its mai n routes to short-term financial recovery. Ominously for suppliers Mr Robert Stempel, GM's hard-pressed chairman, warned recently that the group would ' use the global purchasing power of GM to reduce material costs and accelerat e the return of our North American operations to profitability. We need to l everage the worldwide volume of GM to buy our material and components at bes t prices.' GM, the wounded elephant of the world auto industry, which last y ear suffered a massive Dollars 4.5bn deficit, the largest annual loss ever r ecorded by a US company, is finally being forced to take radical actions to put its house in order. Mr Stempel says GM is 'aggressively pursuing' five k ey business strategies to try to bring its sprawling North American auto ope rations back into profit. These include: instituting global sourcing, accele rating the implementation of lean production, significantly reducing the num ber of GM vehicle platforms (the basic underbodies that spawn a range of car s) with greater use of common components between vehicle lines, cutting back North American manufacturing capacity, and putting into effect an aggressiv e new product programme. Some of these strategies will take time to show thr ough in the profit and loss account, but the reduction of the purchasing bil l can bear immediate fruit. In recent weeks GM has established a worldwide p urchasing organisation, headed by one of the key executives from its success ful European operations, Mr Ignacio Lopez de Arriortua. Mr Lopez, GM vice-pr esident in charge of worldwide purchasing with effect from May 1, has also b ecome a member of both of GM's North American and European strategy boards. He has already stunned the US component industry by indicating, at a meeting last month with top executives of 600 suppliers and 200 GM purchasing manag ers, that existing GM contracts are open to new bids. It is thought that GM could be seeking more than the 7 per cent price cuts over three years it had already begun to demand last year. The carrot Mr Lopez is dangling is the o pportunity to sell products to GM worldwide under long-term contracts. Accor ding to Mr Stempel long-term contracts, some for the life of a new model, wo uld provide suppliers with the necessary volume to support their capital inv estments to reduce costs and improve quality. 'We're going to concentrate on suppliers who meet our cost and quality standards.' The pressures on GM are being felt by all vehicle makers, and the crucial relationship between the vehicle producers and their suppliers is being fundamentally transformed. Th e leading vehicle makers are creating global operations, forcing the compone nt producers to match this international expansion if they wish to maintain their central supplier roles. At the same time they are off-setting research and development spending by globally sourcing their component requirements, increasingly in the form of built-up systems. The vehicle makers are using larger purchasing volumes - sometimes in alliances as in the case of Renault of France and Volvo of Sweden - in order to push down supply costs. Renault and Volvo announced late last month far-reaching steps to achieve a genuine joint purchasing strategy 'to control costs by reducing purchasing prices' with the aim of bringing the proportion of the two groups' total purchases f rom joint outside suppliers to 80 per cent from only 15 per cent today. The vehicle makers are also drastically cutting the number of their suppliers to simplify their purchasing relationships and to delegate more responsibiliti es to their main so-called first tier suppliers. Ford has reduced its worldw ide supplier base by more than half from 1980 levels and intends to reduce i t by an additional third by 1995. Ford of Europe has cut the number of its s uppliers by 15 per cent to 900 since 1988 and plans to shrink the total to 6 00 by 1995. In response, the component manufacturers are being forced into a n era of drastic restructuring. The market leaders are seeking to establish a presence in all the principal vehicle- producing regions of the world with global representation in terms of production plants. According to Mr Noel G outard, chairman and chief executive of Valeo, the leading French auto compo nents maker, 'We must migrate with our European clients eastwards to countri es such as Russia and China, and we must accompany the Japanese in their inc ursion into the west, Europe and the US, as well as build up our presence in Japan.' The component makers are having to concentrate their R & D resource s to establish a competitive edge in principal technologies, while also gain ing the necessary scale of production volumes to be able to compete on price and to ensure financial survival. It is a high risk business. 'Our fate as components and systems suppliers depends on the capacity to survive of each of our customers. In the merciless war being waged in the automotive industr y, there are winners and losers,' says Mr Goutard. 'When the losers fall, th eir suppliers frequently stand to suffer heavy losses and the big investment s made to serve the customer are reduced to ashes.' Leading component suppli ers are taking on a considerably enhanced role as the vehicle makers seek to delegate more component and systems research and development work to the su pply industry. According to Mr Goutard, suppliers are 'no longer just produc ers of parts for vehicle manufacturers. We have become providers of services including the development of products and systems with a high advanced rese arch content. We supply manufacturers with logistics and we finance their in ventory.' He maintains that the financial pressures on the supplier sector h ave greatly increased. 'Our customers make us finance inventory, development s, heavy R & D resources, tooling.' Longer-term partnerships are emerging li nking the vehicle producers with favoured suppliers. Replacing the old adver sarial relationships is not always proving easy, however, and a wide credibi lity gap often yawns between industry rhetoric and practice. 'Purchasing pol icies still vary enormously from one manufacturer to another,' says Mr Gouta rd. The era of global expansion by the Japanese vehicle makers has set fresh challenges raising the vehicle manufacturers' requirements in terms of pric e, quality and delivery. The spread of Japanese vehicle production plants to North America and now to Europe has also heralded an unprecedented level of direct involvement by the vehicle producers in their suppliers' operations and businesses. The vehicle makers take it for granted that they will share directly and immediately in efficiency and productivity gains made by their suppliers. Increasingly they are sending in their own advisory teams to work directly in suppliers' plants. The expansion of the Japanese presence is al so creating a new wave of trade conflicts, most importantly between the US a nd Japan. This year Washington and Detroit have joined forces to an unpreced ented degree - highlighted by the acrimonious visit by President Bush to Tok yo earlier this year accompanied by a business delegation including all the chairmen of the big three US vehicle makers, General Motors, Ford and Chrysl er. The US initiative has brought fresh promises from the Japanese motor ind ustry to buy more US components both for use in Japan and in the Japanese ca r plants in North America, but the recent concessions will scarcely dent the chronic US automotive trade deficit with Japan. Within North America, the U S administration is using customs regulations on local content to try to for ce Japanese vehicle makers to use more locally-produced components - Honda's Canadian car production is the test case - while a barrage of protective tr ade legislation has been proposed in Congress aimed at limiting Japanese mar ket share and vehicle production in the US and at cutting the trade deficit. To date, Japanese component makers have followed the Japanese vehicle maker s more into North America than into Europe, but the established North Americ an and European component suppliers must capture new business from the incom ing Japanese transplant operations, if they are to succeed and supplement so metimes shrinking business with their traditional customers. According to EL M, the US automotive analysts, Japanese automakers produced 1.62m cars, 295, 000 light trucks, 321,000 transmissions and 735,000 engines in the US and Ca nada in 1991. 'Each of these figures is expected to increase substantially o ver the next five years. In 1991, 18 per cent of the cars built in North Ame rica were built in assembly plants owned or controlled by Japanese automaker s.' ELM claims that the number of Japanese parts suppliers with plants in No rth America supplying the Japanese automakers' North American assembly plant s rose from 220 in 1990 to 276 in 1992. At the same time, the number of US c ompanies supplying these same Japanese automakers in North America rose from 309 in 1990 to 372 by early 1992. Auto components companies face, too, a di fficult challenge from changing technologies and must move quickly to adapt to the shift to electronics, the move to lighter weight materials, and the i mpact of government regulations requiring alternative fuel vehicles, and set ting much tougher exhaust emissions and safety standards. Almost all princip al components are being transformed through the introduction of electronics. It is a daunting challenge for the component suppliers. According to Mr Har old Poling, chairman and chief executive of Ford, one of the most pressing o bjectives for the vehicle makers is to bring new products to the market fast er. 'We intend to reduce product development time by 25 per cent, and our su ppliers will play a key role in meeting this goal. 'We will need supplier pa rtners who can commit early in the product development cycle, work with us t o better integrate design and manufacturing requirements and be full-time, f ull-service participants in the process of bringing a car or truck to market .' The Financial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 100 ============================================== Transaction #: 100 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:27 Selec. Rec. #: 25 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-17268 _AN-EJIA1ADTFT 941 008 FT 08 OCT 94 / Plastic heart of a new age man of man y parts: We have the technology, we can rebuild the human body. Clive Cookso n examines the latest advances in medical science By CLIVE COOKSON My childhood science books used to portray t he human body as a complicated machine. This idea made me wonder why old peo ple could not go to hospital to have worn bits of their body replaced, in th e same way as broken-down cars were fixed in a garage. By the time I studied science at university in the 1970s, it was fashionable to look at the body as a whole biological system rather than as a machine with separate parts. N ow, with the proportion of broken-down old people in the population increasi ng rapidly, the machine analogy is making more sense again. One reason is th at modern medicine can indeed provide a wide range of spare parts. Primitive implants are becoming available to replace many human organs: ears, eyes an d nose; bones and joints; skin and ligaments; hearts and kidneys. These impl ants are made from an astonishingly diverse range of materials: hard metals and ceramics; soft plastics and foams; biological implants made by 'tissue e ngineering' from living cells; even electronic circuits designed to replace failed nerves. Anyone fitted with all the different spare parts available to day would indeed be a bionic man or woman, but with a creaking performance f ar removed from a sci-fi superhero. For no implant works as well as the orig inal human version. Although the vast majority of implants have improved the lives of their recipients, there are also failures - some of which leave pa tients with even more pain and disability than they had before. Indeed suing manufacturers on behalf of 'victims' is a lucrative sideline for the Americ an legal profession. 'The problem is that all current devices for all parts of the body have a limited lifetime,' says Professor William Bonfield, head of the Interdisciplinary Research Centre in Biomedical Materials at Queen Ma ry and Westfield College, London. However, as scientists begin to understand which chemical and physical properties of materials make them compatible wi th the human body, the outlook for more permanent implants is becoming brigh ter. 'There has been a change of philosophy recently,' says Professor Chris Wilkinson, a bio-engineering pioneer at Glasgow University. 'You used to try to make your material as inert as possible - and you assumed your engineeri ng skills were better than the body's. Now we accept that the body is more c lever than us.' Research today aims to produce implants that knit together w ith the body's own tissues. The key factor here, according to Professor Coli n Humphreys, a biomaterials specialist at Cambridge University, is not so mu ch the chemical nature of the implant as its micro-structure. The material m ust have a shape and texture that is compatible with living tissues on the s cale of a few nanometres - millionths of a millimetre. 'If it does not have the right nano-structure, it will not work,' he says. A good example of the new focus on micro-structure is Bonfield's project at Queen Mary and Westfie ld College 'to design from scratch an artificial bone that will fit as well as possible with the real thing.' His team has come up with a composite mate rial containing hydroxy-apatite, the main mineral in bone, blended with plas tic. Although hydroxy-apatite has been used before, Bonfield believes his ma terial is the first with the same nano-crystalline structure as natural bone . The result, when it is put next to osteoblasts (bone-producing cells), is that tiny whiskers of bone grow cleanly into the implant. Clinical tests of the material are showing that it can successfully repair the cheekbones of p eople whose faces have been disfigured by disease or accident. Thirty patien ts have already received the implants and 400 more are due to take part in a n extended clinical trial. As with most researchers developing bio-materials , Bonfield's goal is to move into hip joints - the biggest sector of the imp lant market. According to Frost & Sullivan, a Californian market research co mpany, US sales of hip implants will be worth Dollars 810m this year. Artifi cial hips, introduced in the early 1960s, give new mobility to 500,000 peopl e a year worldwide whose own joints have been ruined by arthritis and other diseases. The natural hip is a ball-and-socket joint. Its replacement involv es cutting off the round head of the patient's thigh bone and hammering in a metal spike to which a new ball is attached; at the same time, the natural socket in the pelvis is cut out and replaced with an artificial cup made fro m metal lined with plastic. Both components of the artificial joint are conv entionally cemented in place with a glue called polymethyl methacrylate. Tot al hip replacements have given good results in elderly patients, working wel l for 10 to 15 years. But they last less well in people under 70, who are mo re active and put more strain on their hips. Their new joints can fail withi n five years - usually because the bone shrinks away from the implant, which then works loose. 'The result is that a steadily increasing proportion of o ur patients are undergoing 'revision' operations to replace artificial hips that have already failed. Altogether about one-third of hip replacements are now revisions,' says Richard Coombs, an orthopaedic surgeon at the Royal Po stgraduate Medical School, London. 'Our aim is the 30-year prosthesis, yet t oday our youngest patients have a five to seven year revision rate.' Repeate d surgery to replace failed artificial joints is not only distressing and ri sky for the patients but also expensive. The National Health Service would s ave an estimated Pounds 80m a year if it did not have to carry out second an d subsequent hip replacements. Much research into orthopaedic implants is ai med at giving the metal components a porous surface coating - of hydroxy-apa tite, for example - which will encourage the patient's hip and thigh bones t o bind naturally with the implant. To stimulate the osteoblasts, the implant may also be impregnated with natural chemicals called growth factors. This should give a stronger bond than any synthetic glue. Patience and dogged per sistence are essential requirements for anyone developing implant materials. Proving their safety and efficacy inevitably takes many years. For example Bioglass, a ceramic bone substitute just beginning to come into use in the U S, was invented by Professor Larry Hench at the University of Florida in 196 9. Professor Per-Ingvar Branemark of Gothenburg University, Sweden, also sho ws the persistence required in bio-materials research. As a young medical sc ientist working on laboratory animals in the 1950s, he discovered that titan ium, a light metal much favoured by the aerospace industry, could secure imp lants firmly in living bone. Branemark first used the system in 1965, to fix the most humble of implants -false teeth - with a titanium screw into a ma n's jaw bone. Twenty-nine years later, that patient's dentures are still fir mly in place, and 300,000 other people have had dental implants secured with the same system. The weight of clinical evidence did not convince the world 's dentists that the Branemark system was safe and effective until the 1980s . And only in the mid 1990s are orthopaedic and plastic surgeons beginning t o take titanium screws seriously, as a way to fix artificial joints and othe r body parts permanently to patients. 'No one knows how and why the system w orks so well,' Branemark says, 'but empirical findings like this are importa nt in medicine.' Apparently, the titanium surface is covered by a thin oxide layer whose crystalline structure happens to be completely compatible with bone; at the same time it contains no chemicals capable of triggering an adv erse reaction from the body's immune system. Implant development is not only slow but may also be legally and financially hazardous. The most spectacula r demonstration of the dangers is the Dollars 4bn fund proposed by Dow Corni ng and other US manufacturers of silicone breast implants, to settle litigat ion by thousands of women who were allegedly harmed by the devices. Although the companies maintain that there is no scientific evidence to link their p roducts to the plaintiffs' auto-immune diseases and other medical problems, some implant recipients have undoubtedly suffered great pain - and their law yers have successfully portrayed them as innocent victims of corporate greed and negligence. The silicone saga has frightened several companies off the whole implants business. 'We have pulled out of making materials for medical implants altogether, and a number of other companies have stopped developin g medical implants in the US because, with the potential (legal) liability, it is not worth the risk,' says Dr Ralph Cook, Dow Corning medical director. Another corporate victim of the implants business is Vitek, a Texan company founded by Dr Charles Homsy to make implants out of a material called Propl ast which he has been developing for more than 20 years. Vitek went bankrupt in 1990, crushed by the weight of lawsuits by patients who suffered adverse reactions - including severe and intractable pain - after receiving jaw imp lants containing Proplast. Homsy believes that the fault did not lie with th e material itself but with the way it was used. He has shown his faith in it by joining a new company in Switzerland, Promotus, to continue developing a nd marketing Proplast (a porous matrix of Teflon plastic with hydroxy-apatit e). Surgeons in the Netherlands are carrying out a long-term trial of hip im plants coated with Proplast. So much for passive implants to replace failed bones and joints. Research into active implants, which substitute for nerves and muscles, is less advanced but potentially more far-reaching in its impl ications. Already, electronic devices are beginning to give some hearing to the deaf and movement to the severely disabled. Doctors have most experience with the 'cochlear implant', fitted surgically into the bone behind the ear . It converts digitised sounds, transmitted from a small external microphone , into electrical signals which stimulate the auditory nerves inside the ear . These send impulses to the brain, which interprets them as crude sounds. L ord Ashley, the UK's best-known campaigner for the deaf, brought the technol ogy to public attention in Britain last year when he received a cochlear imp lant. He spoke movingly of being able to hear his family again after 25 year s of silence. 'I can best describe what I hear as being like listening to a croaking Dalek with laryngitis,' Ashley said, 'but compared with total deafn ess it is a miracle.' Devices to restore some hand movement to quadriplegic patients with broken backs or necks are being developed at Case Western Rese rve University in Ohio. The system relies on the fact that most quadriplegic s can shrug their shoulders slightly. The movement controls a joy-stick whic h transmits signals to an electronic unit under the wheelchair. This activat es a stimulator about the size of a heart pacemaker, implanted in the should er, which sends electrical impulses down the arm to the paralysed hand muscl es. The experimental hand grasp system does not restore full finger movement s but it has enabled a dozen patients in the US to write, brush their hair a nd teeth, hold a telephone, sew and paint. Now surgeons at Salisbury Distric t Hospital are preparing to test the system in the UK. The only vital organ for which medical technology cannot yet offer any assistance is the brain. E ven that is only a matter of time. Humphreys predicts that within 50 years i t will be possible to implant memory chips to boost our failing intellectual faculties. 'If we can design an interface between silicon chips and brain c ells, the first step will be a pre-programmed chip which the brain could rea d,' Humphreys says. 'Ultimately we would like the brain not to notice the im plant and to treat it as another piece of brain tissue. Then we could get th e brain to record information on the silicon chip and read it when necessary .' Although Humphreys is more willing than his cautious colleagues to specul ate publicly about the future of biomedical technology, many scientists woul d regard his vision as a reasonable extrapolation of current research. Most would see brain-boosting implants - whether to extend human intelligence or to treat diseases such as Alzheimer's - as a welcome development, not a sci- fi nightmare. There is an interesting paradox here. As medical scientists ad d increasingly sophisticated implants to people, so robotics researchers wil l be giving machines the mental and even anatomical features of humans. Duri ng the coming Bionic Age, the distinction between human beings with implants and humanised robots will become increasingly blurred. Countri es:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P8 73 Research and Testing Services. P384 Medical Instruments and Supplie s. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. TECH Products & Product use. The Financial Times London Page I < /PAGE> ============= Transaction # 101 ============================================== Transaction #: 101 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:30 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT911-1003 _AN-BEIBNAA4FT 9105 09 FT 09 MAY 91 / Technology: Hard times to bear - In th e third of a series on innovation in the recession, Andrew Baxter describes how the UK machine tools sector is coping By ANDREW BAXTER Anthony Balding could hardly believe his eyes when h e stopped by one stand at a recent machine tool exhibition in Taiwan. 'I saw one local manufacturer there which had launched nine machines in one hit. T hat's a rate which can't be dreamed of in the UK.' Especially, it appears, i n a recession. The UK machine tool industry, says Balding, managing director of Norfolk-based Beaver Engineering Group, is probably in its worst positio n for sales and orders for 20 or 30 years. Some manufacturers say domestic s ales are down 40 per cent over the past year, although few admit to sufferin g as badly as that. Beaver has been as innovative as any in the UK industry over the past five or six years, developing a niche market in machining cent res - large multi-purpose machine tools - and turning machines. 'In our indu stry you should be looking at a major new product, or a substantial change t o an existing product, every 18 months,' says Balding. Last summer it shippe d the first of a new machine that cost around Pounds 700,000 to develop, a b ig investment for a company with annual sales of Pounds 11m-Pounds 12m. Now, however, Beaver has cut back on new product development and, says Balding, 'we are moving as slowly as we have done for 10 or 12 years. It hurts me gre atly because our competitors in Japan, Germany and Taiwan are not slowing do wn. The recession is going to put us two years behind where we would have be en.' Across the country at Leicester, Malcolm Taylor, managing director of U S-owned Bridgeport Machines, is taking a different tack. Bridgeport, which c laims to be the largest UK machine tool producer, has shed some 'bottom end' research and development staff, and set up a multi-disciplined hit-team fro m R&D, production and quality. The aim, says Taylor, is to quicken the pace of new product development. 'We are trying to run at 100mph to introduce new products, freshen up a depressed market and prepare for the upturn.' A new range of machines will begin to come on the market next month offering innov ation and more specification for little difference in price. Taylor is deter mined not to lose two years to his powerful German and Japanese competitors. 'In this business, either you get on the roundabout and make it go faster, or you get off,' he says. These two strategies for getting through the reces sion may vary in emphasis, and would probably differ from those at the other 120-odd machine tool manufacturers in Britain's highly-fragmented machine t ool sector - the world's seventh biggest with estimated sales last year of D ollars 1.72bn. But the encouraging link is the importance that companies att ach to innovation - new machines, new production techniques, new attitudes t o selling. That is not just because it is a time when machine tool makers' t houghts turn to innovation, as the 9th EMO, the big biennial European machin e tool exhibition, opens next month in Paris. More fundamentally, the commit ment to innovation is based on the fear of history repeating itself. The pos t-war British machine tool industry has witnessed the demise of dozens of fa mous names - led by Alfred Herbert, once the world's biggest producer - due in to a static product range and refusal to modernise manufacturing techniqu es. The key development in machine tools over the past 25 years has been the introduction of numerically controlled, and later computer numerically cont rolled (CNC) machines, which have transformed the accuracy and flexibility o f machine tools. This trend was spearheaded by the Japanese producers, and l ed to the introduction of machining centres which can hold 100 or more tools and memorise a series of jobs on a variety of workpieces. That in turn led on to flexible manufacturing systems, where a host computer controls a group of interlinked machine tools and machining centres. British manufacturers h ave struggled to cope with this of the industry. Although the mechanical asp ects of machine tools have developed to take advantage of the greater precis ion offered by computers, the extent to which a machine tool industry can of fer CNC machines has become perhaps the most important indicator of its tech nological state of health. In the UK, the Machine Tool Technologies Associat ion estimates that NC/CNC machine tools have risen from about 11 per cent of British manufacturers' sales in 1978 to 35 per cent in 1989. That is still a long way behind the Japanese at more than 80 per cent, but compares quite well with 45 per cent for the old West Germany. The commitment to expand the application of CNC is continuing despite the recession. As recently as the mid-1980s, most British manufacturers would have relied almost totally on CN C unit suppliers such as Allen-Bradley of the US. Now the bigger companies h ave their own in-house software development teams who, according to one obse rver, 'are unlikely to be sitting around doing nothing in a recession'. The use of CNC varies considerably, and is not limited to the larger producers. Privately-owned Pneuform Bending Machines, based in Aldershot, derives 85 pe r cent of its turnover from CNC machines. Pneuform has just 18 full-time emp loyees and is cushioned from the recession by exporting 75 per cent of its P ounds 1.3m annual sales. In Paris it is unveiling what it claims is a wire b ending machine with a patented technique for forming wire components such as exhaust brackets and supermarket trollies. Sensibly, the survivors of the s hakeout in the UK machine tool industry over the past 20 years are concentra ting on specialisation rather than taking on the big-volume Japanese produce rs such as Okuma and Toyoda. This has led to the fostering of a small-compan y, owner-manager philosophy, with many producers focusing all their developm ent, production and marketing skills on one product area in an attempt to st ay competitive. That has its advantages and drawbacks. Innovative production techniques can be brought in quickly and have a speedy effect. Len Weaver, chairman of Jones & Shipman, the Leicester-based grinding machine producer, recalls that five years ago the company had a 'build programme' of its produ ction run for the next 12 months. Once written, it was cast in iron. Now it is produced every eight weeks. The introduction of computer-aided design can quickly boost the productivity of a small team of draughtsmen, and signific antly improve the flow of new products. But a recession exposes the weakness es of a fragmented industry that is constantly seeking improvements to its p roducts and methods. At Beaver, Balding has just spent Pounds 4.5m on a new factory, but is now putting off spending a further Pounds 100,000-Pounds 140 ,000 on a CNC turret punch that would have automated a semi-manual section o f production. And small companies shouldering the entire burden of a new pro duct programme can find themselves going into loss, as happened at Beaver. B ut Balding refuses to import technology via licence agreements. 'I believe t hat if you buy in designs other than to let that design be a small part of y our total programme, it is the beginning of the end,' he told the recent Hou se of Lords inquiry into innovation in British industry. He points out that the UK machine tool industry is now so small that companies have to look inw ard for solutions, with the exception of areas such as computer technology. There is some justification for this fiercely-independent approach. The indu stry will probably never see another sea-change like CNC, and for the past d ecade has been concentrating on incremental product development. Consequentl y R&D in the UK is 'not much R and a lot of D,' according to one manufacture r. This is true even in the grinding sector, which for technical reasons has lagged behind others in the application of CNC. With an abrasive grinding w heel constantly changing its size and shape, CNC has been able to cope with this complex set of variables only since the mid-1980s. Although much smalle r than it was 15 or 20 years ago, the UK industry has maintained an expertis e in grinding technology that remains on a par with rivals worldwide. This w as strengthened last month when J&S agreed to acquire rights to creep-feed t echnology (grinding slowly in a single, deep cut) from Brown & Sharpe of the US. Tom Pearce, director of Bristol University's Institute of Grinding Tech nology, says some manufacturers are wary about joining in collaborative rese arch programmes, for fear of giving away too much to competitors. Pearce say s the recession has forced a few companies to pull out of research projects, but this year he has had more inquiries than ever before. J&S made a splash at the 7th EMO in 1987 with its Format 5 CNC surface grinder, but is conten ting itself this year with some more modest refinements to its range. Behind the scenes, it continues to innovate its production methods, such as ration alising the major castings used in its surface grinders. 'That does not stop because of a recession. It's important to keep those efforts going,' says J ohn Liverton, technical director. Next week's article looks at the computer industry. The Financial Times London Page 16 Grap h (Omitted). Chart (Omitted). Illustration (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 102 ============================================== Transaction #: 102 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:45 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-1793 _AN-DFVCUAE7FT 9306 22 FT 22 JUN 93 / UK Company News: Collaborating with th e customer to make the magic circle - Andrew Baxter examines the strategy be hind Stadco's success in winning its first order from a German carmaker By ANDREW BAXTER FEW THINGS cheer hard- pressed manufacturers so much as winning a first-ever contract in a difficul t foreign market against entrenched rivals. When that market is Germany, UK exporters need all the help they can get. In March, Shrewsbury-based Stadco, part of publicly-quoted Hall Engineering (Holdings), announced a Pounds 21m order from Audi, part of the Volkswagen group, to supply vehicle assembly e quipment and related tooling - its first order from a German-owned car compa ny. Last September's devaluation of the pound against the D-mark helped, say s Mr Alan Mace, Stadco's managing director. But the victory was also the res ult of months of close technical and commercial collaboration between the tw o companies in a market where suppliers increasingly need to get in early if they are to influence production processes. Devaluation could not have come at a better time for Stadco. Coupled with the German motor industry's new f ound commitment to outsourcing components and manufacturing equipment beyond its traditional domestic suppliers, the company has a special opportunity t o expand its presence in the European automotive market. Mr Mace wants to li ft Stadco from the second tier of equipment suppliers up to, or close to, th e hallowed inner circle of three big European suppliers: Comau of Italy and Kuka and Thyssen of Germany. As the carmakers reduce the number of suppliers with which they deal, Mr Mace wants Stadco to be on as many contract short lists as possible. But he also believes that the devaluation, and the experi ence gained from working with the Japanese car producers or the Japanese-inf luenced motor industry in the UK - such as Rover - puts Stadco in a good pos ition to develop its automotive pressings business. Working with Japanese ve hicle manufacturers in the UK has prompted Stadco to adopt their 'cost-down' approach, eliminating waste, implementing continuous improvement programmes , and tightening stock control in a way that has yet to be achieved by conti nental European pressing companies. German vehicle manufacturers, too, have been slow to specify Japanese production equipment, he says, but could buy f rom Stadco, which has incorporated some elements of Japanese 'lean' manufact uring techniques into its own equipment. Stadco is the successor to the old Chatwood Safe Company, which now survives as Stadco Security, the strong roo m supplier and builder. Together with Stadco Cooling, which makes industrial cooling systems, this represents only about 5 per cent of the business. The rest is automotive pressings - steel stampings and sub-assemblies - and aut omation, specialised equipment for assembling parts of a car body. And this is where Stadco has been growing. Orders received have jumped from a total o f Pounds 25m in 1983 and 1984 to Pounds 115m in 1991 and 1992. Sales have ri sen from Pounds 11m in 1983 to Pounds 45m-Pounds 50m in each of the past two years. That compares with Hall's total turnover of Pounds 135.7m in 1992. S tadco's profits hit a peak of Pounds 4.86m in 1991, but slipped back last ye ar to Pounds 2.94m, a reflection of the difficult conditions in the motor in dustry. In spite of the profits downturn, Mr Mace is confident about Stadco' s future and its financial health. The company has been regularly generating cash since the mid-1980s, he says, and has sold more abroad than at home in five of the past 10 years. And, over the past decade, capital employed has only doubled while sales have more than quadrupled - due to tighter manageme nt controls and better negotiations on payment terms from customers. Behind the numbers, however, lies a change in strategy which Mr Mace believes rescu ed the pressings division from a 'slow, painful death.' In 1986 and 1987, th e division was at the peak of its profitability, making large pressings for the automotive industry. But Stadco anticipated that customers would increas ingly want to retain their large pressings in-house - to keep body-skin info rmation private as long as possible, and to save on damage and transportatio n costs. The pressings business needed, therefore, to move into the market f or smaller, higher value-added, sub-assemblies, which vehicle makers increas ingly want to outsource. An example is a centre pillar assembly - 'not exact ly a glamour item, but there is quite a lot of assembly involved,' says Mr M ace. The change of tack has proved correct, he says. 'Had we not moved out o f simple, large pressings, we would not now be in business'. The automation division, meanwhile, is responding to the growth in its business and to the increasing size of individual contracts. The division's final assembly manuf acturing space is being doubled to 40,000 sq ft. At the same time, the divis ion is trying to encourage vehicle makers to leave it more of the detail of an assembly line design and take it into their confidence earlier through a process of simultaneous engineering. The aim is to reduce costs and cut lead times while minimising the risk of losing business if a contract is put out to bidding in the traditional way. Mr Mace has recently been looking at aut omation and pressings companies in France and Germany with a view to possibl e acquisition or joint venture. Working together could win business that wou ld otherwise not have been available, he says. But Stadco remains heavily de pendent on the automotive industry. 'We're exposed both to the production si de and to the capital expenditure side,' says Mr Mace. Consequently, he is o n the look-out for a 'third leg' for Stadco - either in a different part of the automotive industry or, preferably, a non-automotive business in a techn ology that Stadco understands. 'I'd feel more comfortable then,' he admits. Companies:- Stadco. Hall Engineering Holdings. Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industrie s:- P3541 Machine Tools, Metal Cutting Types. P3542 Machine To ols, Metal Forming Types. P3714 Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 103 ============================================== Transaction #: 103 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:32:54 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-3399 _AN-DCPCCAF4FT 9303 16 FT 16 MAR 93 / Survey of Contract Electronics Manufac ture (4): Partnership in an age of technical complexity - Ever more work is being farmed out By PAUL TAYLOR THE use of contract manufacturers in the West grew rapidly over the past decade as managements reassessed their corporate strategies. As a result many comp anies decided to concentrate on their core activities and turn other functio ns, including manufacturing, over to specialist contractors. This reassessme nt was often prompted by the need to remain competitive in an increasingly g lobal marketplace. It also highlighted other concepts such as total quality management and just-in-time inventory control which contribute to the succes s of Japanese companies. Contracting out of manufacturing and assembly is we ll established in Japan. Recent research at Tokyo University suggests that i t now accounts for over a third of Japanese companies' total manufacturing c osts and will increase to over 40 per cent by the end of the decade. In the 1960s it was less than 20 per cent. Most Japanese companies farm out manufac turing in the belief that specialists can offer better quality and efficienc y. It may also help them to cut costs, scale down capital spending and conce ntrate on what they are really good at - market research, product definition , product planning, marketing and sales. According to a survey by MHM, a mar ket research organisation based in Ayr, Scotland, about 35 per cent of Europ ean contract electronics customers had no electronics assembly operations of their own. There are many reasons why manufacturers use contract manufactur ers and cost is not always the principal one. Some studies in the US suggest that managements who use sub-contractors principally to cut overheads and j obs end up regretting the decision. Most management consultants argue that c ontract manufacturing should form part of an overall strategy to improve qua lity and competitiveness by delivering the right products to market at the r ight time and the right price. The basis of total quality theory is to ident ify, and be responsive to, the customer, produce a top quality product first time, and work to improve quality all the time. A partnership with a contra ct manufacturer can help achieve these aims. In any case, within the electro nics industry the days are gone when OEMs can do everything themselves in or der to retain most of the added value. Already most components are bought in and, since they are now so complex, the bulk of the cost of an assembled pr inted circuit board (PCB) lies in the components it carries. As competition in the global electronics industry has grown the competent handling of these components, some of which may cost hundreds of pounds, has become crucial i f a company is to maintain its profit margins. 'The diversification of disci plines and expertise in modern electronics is driving companies to reassess their core function and raison d'etre for being in the business,' says Mr De rek Duffett, director of the Association of Contract Electronics manufacture rs (ACeM). 'The 80:20 rule applies to many aspects of business, be it range of products, or range of activities; in other words only 20 per cent of prod ucts or activities produce 80 per cent of the profit,' he adds. Today compan ies, particularly large multinationals, are increasingly aware of the signif icance of both direct and indirect costs. Contracting out manufacturing free s capital to invest in core activities and enables the management to concent rate on key areas which will help to maintain a competitive edge. In additio n the advent of capital intensive processes such as surface mount technology (SMT) has encouraged many OEMs, particularly those outside the electronics industry, to leave such specialist activity to contract electronics manufact urers. Electronic controls are replacing older electro-mechanical controls i n many areas including automotive design, medical systems and a wide range o f consumer goods such as washing machines. However many manufacturers cannot justify the cost of SMT or other automated manufacturing equipment which wo uld stand idle much of the time. Similarly the use of a contract manufacture r can remove the need to recruit and train expensive specialist staff. The c ontract manufacturer's employees represent a pool of dedicated technical and production expertise which is available to the customer. Indeed most contra ct manufacturers now offer a full range of services to their clients includi ng, if required, PCB design, layout, manufacture and testing. However greate r flexibility and speed of response are probably the most important advantag e of using contract electronics manufacturers. Most contract manufacturers h ave the capacity and flexible workforce to start production very quickly to meet an unexpected surge in demand. A striking characteristic of today's ele ctronics and computer markets is the shortening of product life cycles - in some parts of the computer industry they have shrunk to as little as six mon ths and OEMs need to move quickly from one product and technology to the nex t. Contract manufacturing can help to ensure this fast response and lessen t he risk associated with manufacturing and holding inventory. Contractors can also work with a customer to reduce costs during a product life cycle. Othe r potential advantages include economies of scale in component purchasing an d the use of sophisticated computerised automated manufacturing and test sys tems to improve quality and provide 'just-in-time' deliveries. Most contrac t manufacturers have embraced total quality programmes, and obtained certifi cation. Sometimes there are significant cost advantages to using a contract electronics manufacturer. However, cost comparisons need to be approached ca refully. Often the true costs of in-house manufacturing operations are obscu red, for example by shared corporate functions. In addition, comparisons bet ween CEMs in different parts of the world can be confusing. On the basis of labour costs alone contract electronics manufacturers in the Far East contin ue to have an advantage over their counterparts in Europe and North America. However the gap is narrowing and the use of increasingly automated equipmen t means that the cost of labour is often relatively insignificant. Most Euro pean CEMs also say that any cost advantage of manufacturing in the Far East can easily be offset by intangible costs such as delays in shipping and loss of design flexibility. Indeed a number of PC manufacturers have recently br ought manufacturing back from Far East contractors. ICL, for example, stoppe d buying its systems from Acer, one of Taiwan's biggest OEM suppliers, follo wing a feasibility study by consultants KPMG. The machines are manufactured by ICL at its plant in Ashton-under-Lyne. ICL also acts as a contract manufa cturer in the UK for Sun Microsystems of the US. It says that its decision t o bring manufacturing back from the Far East was based partly on increasing volumes and partly because the market was changing. It found that the benefi ts of Far Eastern cheap labour were being out-weighed by the disadvantages - higher import duties, reconfiguration on arrival, the logistics of product being at sea for six weeks, arms length quality and technology changes leadi ng to obsolete stock. Mr Gordon Stewart of consultants Pittiglio Rabin Todd and McGrath argues that the demands placed on contract manufacturers have ch anged. 'Two issues are shaping the future of contract electronics manufactur ing: volume flexibility and design integration.' He says that price and qual ity are a given. 'The keys to competitiveness now are responsiveness - lead times, volumes - and the capacity to integrate manufacturing and test proces ses into an OEM's own product development strategy.' But at an ACeM conferen ce last year he also cautioned that many contract manufacturers fell a long way short of these expectations and only got by because few OEMs could manag e a contractor relationship professionally. Mr Duffett, the ACeM's director, acknowledges that for many managers, who are used to in-house manufacturing using bought-in piece parts, farming out work with independent CEMs represe nts a significant change of practice, calling for a radically new buyer/supp lier relationship. 'The days of arm's length negotiations with choices based solely on lowest price and shortest delivery are over,' he says. Countries:- XAZ World. Industries:- P36 Electronic and Other Electric Equipment. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. MGMT Management. The Financial Times London Page 35 ============= Transaction # 104 ============================================== Transaction #: 104 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:04 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4420 _AN-CFEA9AD8FT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia ls, applied robotics and new energy applications By JOHN GRIFFITHS THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i s unique in the demands it places on the processes of industrial design, dev elopment and production and the technologies which make them possible. This uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of the pr oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands comparison with an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and complexities of manufa cturing in large volumes. Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic les. Each vehicle contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a ddition, the industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t he world's largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted. As pa rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually every t echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied robotics and new energy applications. In the past few years, competition has been added t o other environmental and legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there are expected to be more than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce ntury - have become an enormous environmental problem. In endeavouring to mi nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry is exploring a broad a rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in order to improve fuel economy and alternative energy sources and recycling. Many of these will br ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and technologies to what has b een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry. In the area of vehicle bodi es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites are challenging traditiona l steels. Both are much lighter than steel. Neither suffers from steel's pro pensity to rust. Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi nced of aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil t in aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan els are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding. If suc h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a foregone c onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are implications right th rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting foundries and the dem and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing systems. The advent of pl astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in new processes and players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are anxious not to lo se the impetus they have gained from projects such as General Motors' Saturn with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car bodies are made of ther moplastics hung on a steel skeleton. The past three or four years has seen a spurt in the manufacturing technology for such materials. The industry has learned how to make plastics stampable into body panels and is making rapid strides in reducing the lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded components - one of the material's biggest drawbacks. Such developments are stimulating those engaged in processing more traditional materials to fight back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German foundries group and one of the world's biggest independent iron castings suppliers, has introduced a proce ss for casting iron. It was developed by Professor Lennart Backerud and it i s claimed that it reduces the weight of a casting by 30 per cent and costs b y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength. Pressures are mounting not only to make vehicles lighter and cleaner but also the manufacturing processes. Nowh ere has this been more apparent than in vehicle paint plants which use tens of millions of gallons annually. The industry is switching to water-based pa ints rather than the aromatic solvent-based materials which have contributed to atmospheric pollution. The latest generations of car plants endeavour to capture, clean or even recycle their manufacturing emissions. Opel's Russel sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy for the plant . Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become famous: shoals of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific manufacturing tec hnology improvements such as these are being introduced within a much broade r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened competition from th e Japanese. The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three years or less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester n producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be ove rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm. However, while reaching t his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to use the design and engine ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its product spread and probe into an increasing number of specialist niches. The US industry, first in the fi ring line of Japanese market share ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a doption of simultaneous engineering techniques to help it fight back. Genera l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit from a sy stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively simple. All operating elements of the manufacturer are involved simultaneously with a ne w car from first concept through to the first vehicle coming off the product ion line. That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it is not one that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical procedure has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a vehicle, then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp romises are made to make driveline equipment fit. Subsequently, the finance division usually puts pressure on for cheaper components to be used in some areas, introducing more compromises. As the finale, the manufacturing divisi on is then likely to point out that the vehicle is too difficult to make, or that additional investment will be needed in adapting production lines. How ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven tec hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a company 's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously, together with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems which l ie at the heart of the industry. As Europe braces for its own era of much-in creased competition with Japanese cars, the simultaneous engineering concept has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW has created perhaps the largest single re search engineering centre in the European industry in pursuit of simultaneou s engineering principles. Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow ers and multiple connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of whom has to walk more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f irst-concept designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the building houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie s of even an outline design idea. Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of research and development at BMW, that it is c utting two years from BMW's development cycles. The design of the building i s based on the concept that, if physical distances between two designers or engineers are greater than 150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc ussion of problems is discouraged. It represents a recognition by BMW that c ompetitiveness is as much a function of the proper organisation of human res ources as of technology. Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod uction concept which, started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt ually every large car maker as the only way of securing the long-term future . Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of mu lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert wi th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower volumes of products in greater variety. The study concluded that with this process Western producers are hoping to close the production gap with Japan. For exa mple, a US plant takes 25 hours to assemble a car compared with an average o f 13 hours in Japan. It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only last month Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan ese manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility in the world. He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean and capable of cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri ng quality and the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr ocedures. The lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing to Japan. Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry. The Financial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 105 ============================================== Transaction #: 105 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:08 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4420 _AN-CFEA9AD8FT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia ls, applied robotics and new energy applications By JOHN GRIFFITHS THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i s unique in the demands it places on the processes of industrial design, dev elopment and production and the technologies which make them possible. This uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of the pr oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands comparison with an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and complexities of manufa cturing in large volumes. Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic les. Each vehicle contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a ddition, the industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t he world's largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted. As pa rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually every t echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied robotics and new energy applications. In the past few years, competition has been added t o other environmental and legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there are expected to be more than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce ntury - have become an enormous environmental problem. In endeavouring to mi nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry is exploring a broad a rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in order to improve fuel economy and alternative energy sources and recycling. Many of these will br ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and technologies to what has b een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry. In the area of vehicle bodi es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites are challenging traditiona l steels. Both are much lighter than steel. Neither suffers from steel's pro pensity to rust. Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi nced of aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil t in aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan els are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding. If suc h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a foregone c onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are implications right th rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting foundries and the dem and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing systems. The advent of pl astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in new processes and players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are anxious not to lo se the impetus they have gained from projects such as General Motors' Saturn with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car bodies are made of ther moplastics hung on a steel skeleton. The past three or four years has seen a spurt in the manufacturing technology for such materials. The industry has learned how to make plastics stampable into body panels and is making rapid strides in reducing the lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded components - one of the material's biggest drawbacks. Such developments are stimulating those engaged in processing more traditional materials to fight back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German foundries group and one of the world's biggest independent iron castings suppliers, has introduced a proce ss for casting iron. It was developed by Professor Lennart Backerud and it i s claimed that it reduces the weight of a casting by 30 per cent and costs b y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength. Pressures are mounting not only to make vehicles lighter and cleaner but also the manufacturing processes. Nowh ere has this been more apparent than in vehicle paint plants which use tens of millions of gallons annually. The industry is switching to water-based pa ints rather than the aromatic solvent-based materials which have contributed to atmospheric pollution. The latest generations of car plants endeavour to capture, clean or even recycle their manufacturing emissions. Opel's Russel sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy for the plant . Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become famous: shoals of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific manufacturing tec hnology improvements such as these are being introduced within a much broade r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened competition from th e Japanese. The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three years or less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester n producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be ove rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm. However, while reaching t his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to use the design and engine ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its product spread and probe into an increasing number of specialist niches. The US industry, first in the fi ring line of Japanese market share ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a doption of simultaneous engineering techniques to help it fight back. Genera l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit from a sy stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively simple. All operating elements of the manufacturer are involved simultaneously with a ne w car from first concept through to the first vehicle coming off the product ion line. That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it is not one that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical procedure has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a vehicle, then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp romises are made to make driveline equipment fit. Subsequently, the finance division usually puts pressure on for cheaper components to be used in some areas, introducing more compromises. As the finale, the manufacturing divisi on is then likely to point out that the vehicle is too difficult to make, or that additional investment will be needed in adapting production lines. How ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven tec hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a company 's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously, together with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems which l ie at the heart of the industry. As Europe braces for its own era of much-in creased competition with Japanese cars, the simultaneous engineering concept has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW has created perhaps the largest single re search engineering centre in the European industry in pursuit of simultaneou s engineering principles. Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow ers and multiple connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of whom has to walk more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f irst-concept designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the building houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie s of even an outline design idea. Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of research and development at BMW, that it is c utting two years from BMW's development cycles. The design of the building i s based on the concept that, if physical distances between two designers or engineers are greater than 150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc ussion of problems is discouraged. It represents a recognition by BMW that c ompetitiveness is as much a function of the proper organisation of human res ources as of technology. Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod uction concept which, started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt ually every large car maker as the only way of securing the long-term future . Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of mu lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert wi th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower volumes of products in greater variety. The study concluded that with this process Western producers are hoping to close the production gap with Japan. For exa mple, a US plant takes 25 hours to assemble a car compared with an average o f 13 hours in Japan. It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only last month Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan ese manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility in the world. He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean and capable of cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri ng quality and the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr ocedures. The lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing to Japan. Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry. The Financial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 106 ============================================== Transaction #: 106 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:10 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-4420 _AN-CFEA9AD8FT 9206 05 FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno logy (1): Competition gets fiercer - Car manufacturers, in the struggle for advantage or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, ar e using virtually every technology. This includes the development of materia ls, applied robotics and new energy applications By JOHN GRIFFITHS THE world automotive industry of the 1990s i s unique in the demands it places on the processes of industrial design, dev elopment and production and the technologies which make them possible. This uniqueness stems not so much from the technological sophistication of the pr oduct - the latest Mercedes 500 is hi-tech but hardly stands comparison with an Airbus - as its combination with the problems and complexities of manufa cturing in large volumes. Car plants this year will produce nearly 40m vehic les. Each vehicle contains, on average, nearly 10,000 individual parts. In a ddition, the industry will produce more than 4m commercial vehicles. It is t he world's largest manufacturing activity, and its most multi-faceted. As pa rt of the manufacturers' struggle for advantage, or survival, in one of the most harshly competitive activities, the industry subsumes virtually every t echnology. This includes the development of materials, applied robotics and new energy applications. In the past few years, competition has been added t o other environmental and legislative pressures. Cars and trucks - and there are expected to be more than 500m on the world's roads by the early 21st ce ntury - have become an enormous environmental problem. In endeavouring to mi nimise their environmental impact, the motor industry is exploring a broad a rray of actions, for example, vehicle weight-saving in order to improve fuel economy and alternative energy sources and recycling. Many of these will br ing, or are bringing, change in the processes and technologies to what has b een mainly a steel-based metal-bashing industry. In the area of vehicle bodi es, for example, aluminium and plastic composites are challenging traditiona l steels. Both are much lighter than steel. Neither suffers from steel's pro pensity to rust. Audi, Volkswagen's executive car arm, is sufficiently convi nced of aluminium's benefits to have committed its next V8 saloon to be buil t in aluminium, using a spaceframe concept in which unstressed aluminium pan els are to be attached, possibly through bonding rather than welding. If suc h construction were to be adopted on a wide scale - by no means a foregone c onclusion because of aluminium's high cost - there are implications right th rough the manufacturing supply line, heavily impacting foundries and the dem and for traditional dies and stamping and pressing systems. The advent of pl astic composites for body parts, similarly, is drawing in new processes and players. Large chemical groups such as Dow and Du Pont are anxious not to lo se the impetus they have gained from projects such as General Motors' Saturn with its 240,000 cars a year capacity, in which car bodies are made of ther moplastics hung on a steel skeleton. The past three or four years has seen a spurt in the manufacturing technology for such materials. The industry has learned how to make plastics stampable into body panels and is making rapid strides in reducing the lengthy cycle times needed to make injection-moulded components - one of the material's biggest drawbacks. Such developments are stimulating those engaged in processing more traditional materials to fight back. Fritz Winter Eisengeiberie, the German foundries group and one of the world's biggest independent iron castings suppliers, has introduced a proce ss for casting iron. It was developed by Professor Lennart Backerud and it i s claimed that it reduces the weight of a casting by 30 per cent and costs b y 10 per cent, with no loss of strength. Pressures are mounting not only to make vehicles lighter and cleaner but also the manufacturing processes. Nowh ere has this been more apparent than in vehicle paint plants which use tens of millions of gallons annually. The industry is switching to water-based pa ints rather than the aromatic solvent-based materials which have contributed to atmospheric pollution. The latest generations of car plants endeavour to capture, clean or even recycle their manufacturing emissions. Opel's Russel sheim plant captures such emissions and turns them into energy for the plant . Volkswagen's symbol of manufacturing cleanliness has become famous: shoals of goldfish swimming in pools of recycled water. Specific manufacturing tec hnology improvements such as these are being introduced within a much broade r scenario of change, brought about mainly by heightened competition from th e Japanese. The Japanese industry can bring a model into production in three years or less, compared with a typical five years or longer for most Wester n producers. Even the Japanese have begun to conclude that this might be ove rkill and that four years is a more sensible norm. However, while reaching t his conclusion, the Japanese industry has acted to use the design and engine ering abilities it has acquired to broaden its product spread and probe into an increasing number of specialist niches. The US industry, first in the fi ring line of Japanese market share ambitions, has been enthusiastic in its a doption of simultaneous engineering techniques to help it fight back. Genera l Motors, in particular, appears to be reaping significant benefit from a sy stem which has its origins in Japan. The concept is deceptively simple. All operating elements of the manufacturer are involved simultaneously with a ne w car from first concept through to the first vehicle coming off the product ion line. That might appear to be self-evidently the proper course - but it is not one that has been followed by Western producers. Instead, the typical procedure has been to undergo the sequential process of a team designing a vehicle, then forwarding the concept to the engineering division, where comp romises are made to make driveline equipment fit. Subsequently, the finance division usually puts pressure on for cheaper components to be used in some areas, introducing more compromises. As the finale, the manufacturing divisi on is then likely to point out that the vehicle is too difficult to make, or that additional investment will be needed in adapting production lines. How ever, none of it would be possible without the wealth of computer-driven tec hnology. This has allowed the creation of master databases for all a company 's divisions and even outside suppliers to work off simultaneously, together with the computer-aided design, manufacturing and logistics systems which l ie at the heart of the industry. As Europe braces for its own era of much-in creased competition with Japanese cars, the simultaneous engineering concept has taken swift root. Indeed, BMW has created perhaps the largest single re search engineering centre in the European industry in pursuit of simultaneou s engineering principles. Its Fiz centre in Munich, a futuristic maze of tow ers and multiple connecting walkways, houses nearly 6,000 engineers, none of whom has to walk more than 150 metres to talk to a colleague. It allows a f irst-concept designer easily to discuss with a production line engineer (the building houses prototype production lines) the manufacturing practicalitie s of even an outline design idea. Such are the Fiz's advantages, according t o Dr Wolfgang Reitzle, head of research and development at BMW, that it is c utting two years from BMW's development cycles. The design of the building i s based on the concept that, if physical distances between two designers or engineers are greater than 150 metres, the easy interchange of ideas or disc ussion of problems is discouraged. It represents a recognition by BMW that c ompetitiveness is as much a function of the proper organisation of human res ources as of technology. Similar thinking lies at the heart of the lean prod uction concept which, started by Toyota several decades ago, is seen by virt ually every large car maker as the only way of securing the long-term future . Lean production, identified by a five-year study of the world car industry by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team, involves using teams of mu lti-skilled workers at all levels of a company's organisation, in concert wi th highly flexible, increasingly automated machines to produce lower volumes of products in greater variety. The study concluded that with this process Western producers are hoping to close the production gap with Japan. For exa mple, a US plant takes 25 hours to assemble a car compared with an average o f 13 hours in Japan. It is not clear what is meant by lean production. Only last month Mercedes-Benz, for the first time facing real pressure from Japan ese manufacturers, opened a new plant at Rastatt with the claim by Mr Werner Niefer, chief executive, that it was the most advanced car-making facility in the world. He asserts that production and management at Rastatt are lean and capable of cutting production costs by at least 25 per cent while ensuri ng quality and the near-abolition of traditional post-build rectification pr ocedures. The lean procedures, he insists, are Mercedes' own and owe nothing to Japan. Rastatt will be watched closely by the industry. The Financial Times London Page I ============= Transaction # 107 ============================================== Transaction #: 107 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:33:33 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 108 ============================================== Transaction #: 108 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:34:51 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {infant birth rates}) and (topic {birth rates}) and (topic { decline,reduction})" ============= Transaction # 109 ============================================== Transaction #: 109 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:35:02 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 16 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 110 ============================================== Transaction #: 110 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 10:35:46 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 1 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: Yes Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: zfind "(topic @ {decline in birth rates}) and (topic {birth }) and (topic {r ates})" ============= Transaction # 111 ============================================== Transaction #: 111 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:35:57 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 313 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 112 ============================================== Transaction #: 112 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:13 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 113 ============================================== Transaction #: 113 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:41 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 114 ============================================== Transaction #: 114 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:43 Selec. Rec. #: 1 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-9226 _AN-EHLDRAC0FT 9408 12 FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany By JUDY DEMPSEY The British author, PD Jam es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of Men. It is set in England in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread like a plague. The human ra ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse the trend. At the end of th e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is enough to save the human ra ce is left open. German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo rk of fiction: five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r ate in east Germany continues to plummet. Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern ity department at the Charite, east Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed the trend in early 1990. 'You just had to look at the statistics,' he expla ined. 'Before 1989, there were about 16,000 babies born each year in east Be rlin. Today, that figure has slumped to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen t. 'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda y, we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity hos pitals in east Berlin.' Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h ave shocked the former communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on its wide range of social services aimed at providing women with excellent c hildcare facilities to encourage them to have children. Then, day-care centr es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity leave and return to a guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous state support and sti ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than 90 per cent of the fem ale working population were employed, compared with 49 per cent in west Germ any. By the age of 21, east German women started having children, unlike the ir west German counterparts, who generally started a family in their mid-to- late 20s. Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany was relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th e communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics Of fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate which is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what makes the statistics so extraordinary.' In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in east Germany, the equivalent of 12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children per family. This was the same as in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas t German births had fallen to 79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate - the equivalent of 0.8 children per family, or only half the west German l evel. 'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce rtain. There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020 because of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi cult it is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?' said Mr Dorbritz. According to the latest statistics from the German Associa tion for Pension Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east Germany will fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people aged between 20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r ise from 3m to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t he state pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more than 50 per cent by 2020. Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye ars, believes there are several reasons why east German women are remaining childless. 'Demographers tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting a sharp fall in the birth rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification. This is because the east German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available on demand. We knew we were not going to have many child-bearing women in th e mid-1990s,' he explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00 0, climbing back to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1. B ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German woma n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job are no w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said. East German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially 16 pe r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work, early retirement schemes, or job creation programmes. By the end of the first quar ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German women had lost their jobs, r epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per cent. In west Germany, 1.1m women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East German women today have free dom of choice, but they have lost their status in society,' said Mr Dorbritz . The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often, un like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security. Th e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline of the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz. The freedom to travel has played its part in the decline of the birth rate as well: young east German women have an u nprecedented chance to go abroad before they settle and start a family. 'The re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East Germ an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All thos e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily subsid ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.' Greater mo bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from east Germ any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east Germans we nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991. 'Many of these people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. 'Of the overa ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed to the sheer decline of east Germany's population during those two years.' Staff at the C harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases, the obstetrician s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000 beds here,' sai d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more than 2,200 women a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be under pressure to make savings. That means cutting jobs.' But his main concern is the kind of society which will evolve in east Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I do not know how we are going to fend for t he elderly. Who is going to pay for them?' One answer might be to allow immi grants into the country under a quota system to replenish the population - a solution advanced by some liberals. One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ es that, if the present trends in east Germany continue, it will be virtuall y impossible for what he calls 'generational replacement' to occur. 'For gen erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age today wo uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the course o f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth per wom an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population replacement.' Countries:- DEZ Germany, EC. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMM T Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London P age 12 ============= Transaction # 115 ============================================== Transaction #: 115 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:45 Selec. Rec. #: 2 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-4008 _AN-CCKB6AGPFT 9203 11 FT 11 MAR 92 / The Budget (Government Statements): Pe rsonal allowances to rise in line with statutory indexation - Income Tax THE CHANCELLOR proposes in his Budget to: reduce the rate of income tax to 20 per cent on the first Pounds 2,000 of taxable income; incr ease the personal allowances for all age groups in line with the statutory i ndexation provisions; increase the age-related married couple's allowances i n line with the statutory indexation provisions; keep the married couple's a llowances for those aged under 65, the additional personal allowance and the widow's bereavement allowance at their 1991-92 level of Pounds 1,720; make no change to the basic rate limit; make no change in the basic and higher ra tes of income tax. New lower rate band. New tax tables incorporating the low er rate band will be used by employers on the first pay day after May 17. Ch anges in income tax allowances and car scale benefits. Tax offices will be s ending employers instructions to increase codes ending in L, H, P or V. Revi sed coding notices are not sent to employees when codes are increased automa tically in this way. The codes of the following employees will be reviewed i ndividually by tax offices who will notify both the employee and the employe r of the revised code where a change is due: employees whose codes begin wit h F or end in T; employees whose codes include adjustments for car benefits. Taxpayers aged 65 and over. It is proposed to raise the income limit for ag e-related allowances for those aged 65 and over from Pounds 13,500 to Pounds 14,200. If a taxpayer's total income is below this limit the age-related al lowances are due in full; if it is above this limit they are reduced (by Pou nds 1 for every Pounds 2 of income above the limit) to the level of the basi c personal and married couple's allowance. Tax offices will amend codes that at present include a reduced amount of age-related allowances to take accou nt of the increase in the income limit. Where the size of a taxpayer's incom e means that only the basic allowance was given for 1991-92 but an age-relat ed allowance is now due, the tax office will revise the code where necessary in examining 1992-93 tax returns from April onwards. Any taxpayer aged 65 a nd over whose 1992-93 code does not include an age-related allowance at pres ent but who expects to be entitled to an age-related allowance following the proposed increase in the income limit and has not been asked by the end of April to complete a 1992-93 tax return should write to his or her tax office giving National Insurance number, date of birth and details of income. Main tenance payments. The limit on maintenance payments qualifying for tax relie f is equal to the married couple's allowance. The limit for 1992-93 will be Pounds 1,720, the same as for 1991-92. New 20 per cent rate of income tax. T he chancellor proposes to reduce the rate of income tax to 20 per cent on th e first Pounds 2,000 of taxable income (after allowances and reliefs). The n ew rate will apply for the tax year 1992-93, starting on 6 April. This relea se explains what it will mean for relief at source schemes and tax deduction schemes. There is generally no change for people making payments, but some people receiving income taxed at source will be able to claim a repayment. T he new rate will also apply for the purposes of capital gains tax for those whose marginal income tax rate is 20 per cent. Interest, annuities and annua l payments. Tax should continue to be deducted at the basic rate of 25 per c ent by banks and building societies from deposit interest not eligible for p ayment without deduction of tax and other payers of interest, annuities and other annual payments who are entitled or obliged to deduct tax. People who suffered deduction of tax at 25 per cent, but are liable to tax only at the lower rate of 20 per cent, will be able to claim a repayment of the differen ce. Advance Corporation Tax and Tax Credit on Dividends. The rate of advance corporation tax remains at 25/75ths. Tax credit will continue to be given a t the same rate, and will satisfy shareholders' basic rate liability. People who receive dividends and tax credits but who are liable to tax only at the lower rate, will be able to claim payment of part of the tax credit from th e Inland Revenue. Relief at Source Schemes. The relief given at source on mo rtgage interest under the Miras scheme remains at 25 per cent. This will app ly even where the borrower is only liable to tax at 20 per cent. The same ap plies to the other relief at source schemes: personal pension contributions and free-standing additional voluntary contributions made by employees; priv ate medical insurance premiums covering people aged 60 and over; and expendi ture on vocational training (the new scheme starts on April 6 1992). Deeds o f Covenant and Gift Aid. People should continue to deduct tax at 25 per cent from payments to charities made under deed of covenant. The amount to be pa id to the charity by the covenantor will not be affected by the introduction of the lower rate of tax. Payments under the Gift Aid Scheme will continue to be treated as gifts made net of basic-rate tax. As now, charities will be able to reclaim basic-rate tax from the Inland Revenue on payments which th ey receive under covenant or the Gift Aid scheme. There will be no effect on the amount charities can reclaim. Capital Gains Tax. Where appropriate, the new lower rate will apply to capital gains. Net gains are treated as the to p slice of income, and charged to capital gains tax at income tax rates. If someone whose taxable income is less than Pounds 2,000 has chargeable gains above the threshold (Pounds 5,800 in 1992-93), then the first taxable slice of their gain will be taxed at the lower rate. Trusts. The new lower rate do es not apply to trusts. Trusts will continue to be taxed at the basic rate o f 25 per cent plus, where appropriate, the additional rate of 10 per cent. C onstruction Industry Tax Deduction Scheme. The rate of deduction from paymen ts to uncertified subcontractors remains at 25 per cent. This is credited in full against the subcontractor's eventual liability. If it exceeds that lia bility, the subcontractor will be entitled to a repayment. The Financial Times London Page 38 ============= Transaction # 116 ============================================== Transaction #: 116 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:36:58 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9415 _AN-EBODHADOFT 9402 15 FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire land's economy By GARRET FITZGERALD European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best E U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also h as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for som e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest expo rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union. This state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of its av erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country - Portug al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in the wor ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food consum ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of female part icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in Britain and the EU respectively. The state in question is Ireland. Of course, this is n ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the Irish state which are equally notable and less positive: its average level of living standards, m easured in terms of its disposable income per head of population, is 22 per cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its unemployment rate is higher th an in any other EU country except Spain. Both of these features are, however , largely time-lagged consequences of a very high birth rate, which as recen tly as the late 1970s was as much as four-fifths higher than in many other E uropean countries. However, this exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t he past. For, despite the increase of more than half in the number of young people in its population during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t he fertility rate has reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi s was brought about by the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi ces, in disregard of the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q uite possible that within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind of very low level that prevails in countries in southern Europe. Why has the Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing ultimately a countr y's living standards as internationally measured? For the simple reason that a country whose birth rate has been very high in the recent past is bound t o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers: not only children and s tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is because there is a limit to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb very large flows of young people emerging annually from the education system. This is why the Irish s tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100 workers as against about 130 dependen ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157 per 100 in the EU as a whole. Vis a vis the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of output p er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross domestic produc t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the UK, the level of disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at purchasing power pariti es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than that of Scandinavia. T he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high b irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years a go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the sam e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will con tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish labour force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3 per cent in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a fifth of 1 per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer than 52,000 i n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this problem will ha ve largely solved itself within about 15 years. Meanwhile, the short-term gr owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably better even than forecast b y the European Commission. There are now marked signs of a recovery in consu mer demand, which will generate increased employment later this year. This i s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a moderately stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax reliefs. The au thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- CHANGES 1988-1993 % - ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Ireland UK ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------- GDP +26 +2 GDP per worker +23 +6.5 Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5 Employ ment +5 -18 Real wages +16 +9 Consumer prices +13 +30.5 Investment +11.5 -7.5 Person al consumption +16 +3.5 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Percentage of GDP 1993 --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Public borrowing 2.5 7.2 Current external balance +6.5 -2.3 ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- Countries:- IEZ Irelan d, EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta ry Policy. Types:- STATS Statistics. ECON Gross d omestic product. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 117 ============================================== Transaction #: 117 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:37:30 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9415 _AN-EBODHADOFT 9402 15 FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire land's economy By GARRET FITZGERALD European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best E U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also h as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for som e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest expo rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union. This state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of its av erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country - Portug al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in the wor ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food consum ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of female part icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in Britain and the EU respectively. The state in question is Ireland. Of course, this is n ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the Irish state which are equally notable and less positive: its average level of living standards, m easured in terms of its disposable income per head of population, is 22 per cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its unemployment rate is higher th an in any other EU country except Spain. Both of these features are, however , largely time-lagged consequences of a very high birth rate, which as recen tly as the late 1970s was as much as four-fifths higher than in many other E uropean countries. However, this exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t he past. For, despite the increase of more than half in the number of young people in its population during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t he fertility rate has reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi s was brought about by the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi ces, in disregard of the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q uite possible that within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind of very low level that prevails in countries in southern Europe. Why has the Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing ultimately a countr y's living standards as internationally measured? For the simple reason that a country whose birth rate has been very high in the recent past is bound t o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers: not only children and s tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is because there is a limit to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb very large flows of young people emerging annually from the education system. This is why the Irish s tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100 workers as against about 130 dependen ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157 per 100 in the EU as a whole. Vis a vis the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of output p er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross domestic produc t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the UK, the level of disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at purchasing power pariti es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than that of Scandinavia. T he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high b irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years a go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the sam e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will con tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish labour force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3 per cent in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a fifth of 1 per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer than 52,000 i n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this problem will ha ve largely solved itself within about 15 years. Meanwhile, the short-term gr owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably better even than forecast b y the European Commission. There are now marked signs of a recovery in consu mer demand, which will generate increased employment later this year. This i s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a moderately stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax reliefs. The au thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- CHANGES 1988-1993 % - ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Ireland UK ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------- GDP +26 +2 GDP per worker +23 +6.5 Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5 Employ ment +5 -18 Real wages +16 +9 Consumer prices +13 +30.5 Investment +11.5 -7.5 Person al consumption +16 +3.5 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Percentage of GDP 1993 --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Public borrowing 2.5 7.2 Current external balance +6.5 -2.3 ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- Countries:- IEZ Irelan d, EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta ry Policy. Types:- STATS Statistics. ECON Gross d omestic product. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 118 ============================================== Transaction #: 118 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:37:33 Selec. Rec. #: 3 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9415 _AN-EBODHADOFT 9402 15 FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire land's economy By GARRET FITZGERALD European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best E U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also h as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for som e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest expo rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union. This state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of its av erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country - Portug al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in the wor ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food consum ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of female part icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in Britain and the EU respectively. The state in question is Ireland. Of course, this is n ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the Irish state which are equally notable and less positive: its average level of living standards, m easured in terms of its disposable income per head of population, is 22 per cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its unemployment rate is higher th an in any other EU country except Spain. Both of these features are, however , largely time-lagged consequences of a very high birth rate, which as recen tly as the late 1970s was as much as four-fifths higher than in many other E uropean countries. However, this exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t he past. For, despite the increase of more than half in the number of young people in its population during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t he fertility rate has reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi s was brought about by the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi ces, in disregard of the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q uite possible that within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind of very low level that prevails in countries in southern Europe. Why has the Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing ultimately a countr y's living standards as internationally measured? For the simple reason that a country whose birth rate has been very high in the recent past is bound t o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers: not only children and s tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is because there is a limit to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb very large flows of young people emerging annually from the education system. This is why the Irish s tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100 workers as against about 130 dependen ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157 per 100 in the EU as a whole. Vis a vis the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of output p er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross domestic produc t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the UK, the level of disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at purchasing power pariti es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than that of Scandinavia. T he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high b irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years a go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the sam e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will con tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish labour force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3 per cent in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a fifth of 1 per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer than 52,000 i n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this problem will ha ve largely solved itself within about 15 years. Meanwhile, the short-term gr owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably better even than forecast b y the European Commission. There are now marked signs of a recovery in consu mer demand, which will generate increased employment later this year. This i s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a moderately stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax reliefs. The au thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- CHANGES 1988-1993 % - ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Ireland UK ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------- GDP +26 +2 GDP per worker +23 +6.5 Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5 Employ ment +5 -18 Real wages +16 +9 Consumer prices +13 +30.5 Investment +11.5 -7.5 Person al consumption +16 +3.5 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ Percentage of GDP 1993 --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Public borrowing 2.5 7.2 Current external balance +6.5 -2.3 ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- Countries:- IEZ Irelan d, EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta ry Policy. Types:- STATS Statistics. ECON Gross d omestic product. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Time s London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 119 ============================================== Transaction #: 119 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:37:35 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-12411 _AN-EA4DIAAPFT 940 131 FT 31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2 ): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections By BRONWEN MADDOX According to United Nations forecasts, the population of the world is likely to double - to more than 1 0bn people - by the middle of the next century. This will be one of the bigg est forces shaping living standards of future generations. Although growth w ill take place almost entirely in developing countries, few countries will b e able to insulate themselves from the effects. However, population growth w as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, although it is the source of increasing pressure on natural resources and the environment in many regi ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity of the issue was so great - provo king debates about differing cultural and religious values - that it would f rustrate attempts to reach agreement on other fronts. Even at the time of th e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as Prince Charles pointed out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although countries put their name s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and bio-diversity (the variety of the world's wildlife), many have found difficulty in drawing up realistic pl ans for curbing environmental damage. The omission has also allowed the noti on of 'sustainable development' to remain confused. That principle, which go vernments attending Rio pledged to observe, does not define whether resource s are to be preserved at a certain level for each person or simply for each country. Countries with rapidly growing populations will find it almost impo ssible to preserve resources - however defined - on a per capita basis. But although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably larg e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago. Prominent among 1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food, energy and raw m aterials would run out. Since then, food production has increased while popu lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many countries now looks li ke one of the development successes of the past two decades. Many Asian and Latin American countries have had particular success in bringing down the ra te of population growth. India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the average number of children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of about four. That figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de cades - although still higher than the figure of just over two children per woman which would maintain a static population. However, across much of sub- Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than six children per woman. Demographers studying why some countries have had more success th an others point out that there is no straightforward formula to apply. Longs tanding assumptions that as a country develops, its birth rate falls, fail t o explain some of the patterns now observed. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relativ ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than three children per woman during a period of fast economic growth. Instead, demographers are having to put together a more complex picture, in which access to contraception, the level of female education and the availa bility of jobs for women all play a part. There has also been international concern about the measures sometimes employed to restrain birth rates, parti cularly in China, which has fiercely applied limits on family size. The scal e of China's problem is undeniable: China now has nearly a quarter of the wo rld's population on about 7 per cent of the world's arable land. According t o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to about 1.9 f rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as western Europe an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the measures used by the Chinese government - including limiting urban families to one child - ha ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is infringing human rights . Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav e outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn agai nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right. They p oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put severe pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment. They also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised countries an d the steady fall in the average age of the population in developing countri es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years old currently outnu mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North America. But pensioners wi ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, t he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has said. Mr David Coleman, a demo grapher at Oxford University, says that environmental degradation, pressure on resources and the search for jobs will cause industrialised countries to be confronted with an unprecedented influx of immigrants from poorer countri es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures - even taking account only those who have already been born. More than 2m imm igrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. So far, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, but political ch aos in Russia could intensify westward migration. Governments and internatio nal agencies for aid, development and the environment may still be coy about addressing issues of curbing population growth. But they will increasingly find the subject unavoidable. Worries about consumption of resources and deg radation of the environment are well-established. But migration may be the f actor which finally makes countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de veloping - face these questions. Countries:- QOZ Dev eloped Countries. XMZ Africa. INZ India, Asia. CNZ China, Asi a. XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin America. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times Survey YOU Pag e 2 ============= Transaction # 120 ============================================== Transaction #: 120 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:38:04 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-12411 _AN-EA4DIAAPFT 940 131 FT 31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2 ): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections By BRONWEN MADDOX According to United Nations forecasts, the population of the world is likely to double - to more than 1 0bn people - by the middle of the next century. This will be one of the bigg est forces shaping living standards of future generations. Although growth w ill take place almost entirely in developing countries, few countries will b e able to insulate themselves from the effects. However, population growth w as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, although it is the source of increasing pressure on natural resources and the environment in many regi ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity of the issue was so great - provo king debates about differing cultural and religious values - that it would f rustrate attempts to reach agreement on other fronts. Even at the time of th e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as Prince Charles pointed out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although countries put their name s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and bio-diversity (the variety of the world's wildlife), many have found difficulty in drawing up realistic pl ans for curbing environmental damage. The omission has also allowed the noti on of 'sustainable development' to remain confused. That principle, which go vernments attending Rio pledged to observe, does not define whether resource s are to be preserved at a certain level for each person or simply for each country. Countries with rapidly growing populations will find it almost impo ssible to preserve resources - however defined - on a per capita basis. But although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably larg e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago. Prominent among 1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food, energy and raw m aterials would run out. Since then, food production has increased while popu lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many countries now looks li ke one of the development successes of the past two decades. Many Asian and Latin American countries have had particular success in bringing down the ra te of population growth. India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the average number of children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of about four. That figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de cades - although still higher than the figure of just over two children per woman which would maintain a static population. However, across much of sub- Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than six children per woman. Demographers studying why some countries have had more success th an others point out that there is no straightforward formula to apply. Longs tanding assumptions that as a country develops, its birth rate falls, fail t o explain some of the patterns now observed. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relativ ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than three children per woman during a period of fast economic growth. Instead, demographers are having to put together a more complex picture, in which access to contraception, the level of female education and the availa bility of jobs for women all play a part. There has also been international concern about the measures sometimes employed to restrain birth rates, parti cularly in China, which has fiercely applied limits on family size. The scal e of China's problem is undeniable: China now has nearly a quarter of the wo rld's population on about 7 per cent of the world's arable land. According t o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to about 1.9 f rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as western Europe an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the measures used by the Chinese government - including limiting urban families to one child - ha ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is infringing human rights . Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav e outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn agai nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right. They p oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put severe pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment. They also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised countries an d the steady fall in the average age of the population in developing countri es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years old currently outnu mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North America. But pensioners wi ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, t he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has said. Mr David Coleman, a demo grapher at Oxford University, says that environmental degradation, pressure on resources and the search for jobs will cause industrialised countries to be confronted with an unprecedented influx of immigrants from poorer countri es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures - even taking account only those who have already been born. More than 2m imm igrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. So far, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, but political ch aos in Russia could intensify westward migration. Governments and internatio nal agencies for aid, development and the environment may still be coy about addressing issues of curbing population growth. But they will increasingly find the subject unavoidable. Worries about consumption of resources and deg radation of the environment are well-established. But migration may be the f actor which finally makes countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de veloping - face these questions. Countries:- QOZ Dev eloped Countries. XMZ Africa. INZ India, Asia. CNZ China, Asi a. XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin America. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times Survey YOU Pag e 2 ============= Transaction # 121 ============================================== Transaction #: 121 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:38:06 Selec. Rec. #: 4 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-12411 _AN-EA4DIAAPFT 940 131 FT 31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (2 ): Reality remains taboo / A look at world population projections By BRONWEN MADDOX According to United Nations forecasts, the population of the world is likely to double - to more than 1 0bn people - by the middle of the next century. This will be one of the bigg est forces shaping living standards of future generations. Although growth w ill take place almost entirely in developing countries, few countries will b e able to insulate themselves from the effects. However, population growth w as a taboo topic at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, although it is the source of increasing pressure on natural resources and the environment in many regi ons. Governments felt that the sensitivity of the issue was so great - provo king debates about differing cultural and religious values - that it would f rustrate attempts to reach agreement on other fronts. Even at the time of th e summit the omission appeared a serious weakness, as Prince Charles pointed out. In retrospect, that is clearly true. Although countries put their name s to Rio's two treaties on climate change and bio-diversity (the variety of the world's wildlife), many have found difficulty in drawing up realistic pl ans for curbing environmental damage. The omission has also allowed the noti on of 'sustainable development' to remain confused. That principle, which go vernments attending Rio pledged to observe, does not define whether resource s are to be preserved at a certain level for each person or simply for each country. Countries with rapidly growing populations will find it almost impo ssible to preserve resources - however defined - on a per capita basis. But although the projected increase in the world's population is formidably larg e, it is much less than many people feared two decades ago. Prominent among 1970s doomsters, the Club of Rome (an international group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen) predicted that food, energy and raw m aterials would run out. Since then, food production has increased while popu lation has slowed. The drop in the birth rate in many countries now looks li ke one of the development successes of the past two decades. Many Asian and Latin American countries have had particular success in bringing down the ra te of population growth. India, for example, now has a fertility rate - the average number of children per woman implied by the current birth rate - of about four. That figure shows a fall of about one third over the past two de cades - although still higher than the figure of just over two children per woman which would maintain a static population. However, across much of sub- Saharan Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than six children per woman. Demographers studying why some countries have had more success th an others point out that there is no straightforward formula to apply. Longs tanding assumptions that as a country develops, its birth rate falls, fail t o explain some of the patterns now observed. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria a nd Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relativ ely low prosperity, while the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than three children per woman during a period of fast economic growth. Instead, demographers are having to put together a more complex picture, in which access to contraception, the level of female education and the availa bility of jobs for women all play a part. There has also been international concern about the measures sometimes employed to restrain birth rates, parti cularly in China, which has fiercely applied limits on family size. The scal e of China's problem is undeniable: China now has nearly a quarter of the wo rld's population on about 7 per cent of the world's arable land. According t o government figures this year, the fertility rate has fallen to about 1.9 f rom 2.25 children per woman in 1990. That is nearly as low as western Europe an and US rates, and less than half that of India. But the measures used by the Chinese government - including limiting urban families to one child - ha ve provoked criticism that the Chinese government is infringing human rights . Despite those qualifications, the falls in many countries' birth rates hav e outstripped expectations. But demographers and environmentalists warn agai nst complacency, even if the doom-mongers have not been proved right. They p oint out that even at current rates, population growth will still put severe pressures on natural resources and on the quality of the environment. They also argue that the ageing of the populations in industrialised countries an d the steady fall in the average age of the population in developing countri es will bring further pressures. Children under 15 years old currently outnu mber the elderly by one third in Europe and North America. But pensioners wi ll soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, t he United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has said. Mr David Coleman, a demo grapher at Oxford University, says that environmental degradation, pressure on resources and the search for jobs will cause industrialised countries to be confronted with an unprecedented influx of immigrants from poorer countri es. Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of UNFPA, has also warned of these pressures - even taking account only those who have already been born. More than 2m imm igrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. So far, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia have taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, but political ch aos in Russia could intensify westward migration. Governments and internatio nal agencies for aid, development and the environment may still be coy about addressing issues of curbing population growth. But they will increasingly find the subject unavoidable. Worries about consumption of resources and deg radation of the environment are well-established. But migration may be the f actor which finally makes countries worldwide - industrialised as well as de veloping - face these questions. Countries:- QOZ Dev eloped Countries. XMZ Africa. INZ India, Asia. CNZ China, Asi a. XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin America. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times Survey YOU Pag e 2 ============= Transaction # 122 ============================================== Transaction #: 122 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:39:34 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-892 _AN-DC1AGAB2FT 93032 7 FT 27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi gration has focused attention on soaring world population By BRONWEN MADDOX Industrialised countries will be co nfronted with an unprecedented influx of would-be immigrants in the next few decades, putting their economies under enormous pressure. That is the messa ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of the United Nations Population F und (UNFPA), to the UN conference on European population this week in Geneva . More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and Czechoslov akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward migration. This is quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik warned. Migration, many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the factor spur ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the world's soaring p opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's Earth Summit in Ri o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of the natural environ ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda. The Vatican's resistanc e to including population in the talks was unsurprising, but the Philippines and some Middle Eastern countries with high birth rates also proved obstruc tive. Environmental pressure groups, wary of telling developing countries ho w to manage their affairs, were also quiet. Such reticence is difficult to u nderstand in the light of UN population projections - one puts the world's p opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M r Miroslav Macura, demographer with the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r eminded the conference that the total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i f fertility rates turned out to differ even marginally from the model's assu mptions. Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two de cades. India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi ldren per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third in the last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family size, has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children per woman which maintains a static population. But across much of sub-Sahara n Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than 6. Recent studies, although based on less than perfect data, suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti ng only 1 percentage point off population growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren t famine, still has a fertility rate of about 3. According to Mr Fred Sai, p resident of the International Planned Parenthood Federation and chairman of Ghana's population council, African countries now recognise that family plan ning is a tool for health improvement. But the answers to restraining a high growth rate of population are not clear-cut. Recent evidence shows that the traditional assumption that family size falls with economic progress does n ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria and Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relatively low prosperity, whil e the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe riod of sharply rising wealth. 'For every level of prosperity, you can find an enormous range of fertility rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni versity. 'The things that really bring down family size are more complex, to do with culture and education'. Contraceptive programmes do help though, th e UNFPA, maintains: it called last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5 bn spent worldwide on family planning programmes to double by 2000. But even if such measures are successful, the population of developing countries wil l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries. Fertility rates i n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per woman - the UK rate is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below West German levels of 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the Federal Population Inst itute of Germany. The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c urrently outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t he number of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, and could reach 310m in 2025. The idea that any resulting labour gap could b e filled by immigration is disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p er cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working, an d there is plenty of slack.' Past immigration can adversely affect the host country, he added. The availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high-technology industries, he said . It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg e to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences. ----------- ------------------------------------- Immigration pressure on developed coun tries from growth in developing countries' population --------------------- --------------------------- Pop in Increase (million) 1991 by 2005 ---------------------------------------------- -- Western Europe 379 4 Eastern Europe 124 11 E x-Soviet Union 209 10 US 253 81 Medit erranean* 186 158 Latin America 451 289 Tropical Africa 531 826 South Asia 1,206 920 ------------ ------------------------------------ Source: D Coleman, Oxford University *s outh-east Mediterranean ------------------------------------------------ Countries:- QOZ Developed Countries. Indust ries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- G OVT Government News. The Financial Times London Pa ge 9 ============= Transaction # 123 ============================================== Transaction #: 123 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:40:43 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-892 _AN-DC1AGAB2FT 93032 7 FT 27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi gration has focused attention on soaring world population By BRONWEN MADDOX Industrialised countries will be co nfronted with an unprecedented influx of would-be immigrants in the next few decades, putting their economies under enormous pressure. That is the messa ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of the United Nations Population F und (UNFPA), to the UN conference on European population this week in Geneva . More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and Czechoslov akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward migration. This is quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik warned. Migration, many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the factor spur ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the world's soaring p opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's Earth Summit in Ri o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of the natural environ ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda. The Vatican's resistanc e to including population in the talks was unsurprising, but the Philippines and some Middle Eastern countries with high birth rates also proved obstruc tive. Environmental pressure groups, wary of telling developing countries ho w to manage their affairs, were also quiet. Such reticence is difficult to u nderstand in the light of UN population projections - one puts the world's p opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M r Miroslav Macura, demographer with the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r eminded the conference that the total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i f fertility rates turned out to differ even marginally from the model's assu mptions. Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two de cades. India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi ldren per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third in the last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family size, has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children per woman which maintains a static population. But across much of sub-Sahara n Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than 6. Recent studies, although based on less than perfect data, suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti ng only 1 percentage point off population growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren t famine, still has a fertility rate of about 3. According to Mr Fred Sai, p resident of the International Planned Parenthood Federation and chairman of Ghana's population council, African countries now recognise that family plan ning is a tool for health improvement. But the answers to restraining a high growth rate of population are not clear-cut. Recent evidence shows that the traditional assumption that family size falls with economic progress does n ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria and Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relatively low prosperity, whil e the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe riod of sharply rising wealth. 'For every level of prosperity, you can find an enormous range of fertility rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni versity. 'The things that really bring down family size are more complex, to do with culture and education'. Contraceptive programmes do help though, th e UNFPA, maintains: it called last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5 bn spent worldwide on family planning programmes to double by 2000. But even if such measures are successful, the population of developing countries wil l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries. Fertility rates i n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per woman - the UK rate is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below West German levels of 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the Federal Population Inst itute of Germany. The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c urrently outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t he number of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, and could reach 310m in 2025. The idea that any resulting labour gap could b e filled by immigration is disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p er cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working, an d there is plenty of slack.' Past immigration can adversely affect the host country, he added. The availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high-technology industries, he said . It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg e to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences. ----------- ------------------------------------- Immigration pressure on developed coun tries from growth in developing countries' population --------------------- --------------------------- Pop in Increase (million) 1991 by 2005 ---------------------------------------------- -- Western Europe 379 4 Eastern Europe 124 11 E x-Soviet Union 209 10 US 253 81 Medit erranean* 186 158 Latin America 451 289 Tropical Africa 531 826 South Asia 1,206 920 ------------ ------------------------------------ Source: D Coleman, Oxford University *s outh-east Mediterranean ------------------------------------------------ Countries:- QOZ Developed Countries. Indust ries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- G OVT Government News. The Financial Times London Pa ge 9 ============= Transaction # 124 ============================================== Transaction #: 124 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:40:45 Selec. Rec. #: 5 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-892 _AN-DC1AGAB2FT 93032 7 FT 27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi gration has focused attention on soaring world population By BRONWEN MADDOX Industrialised countries will be co nfronted with an unprecedented influx of would-be immigrants in the next few decades, putting their economies under enormous pressure. That is the messa ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik, director of the United Nations Population F und (UNFPA), to the UN conference on European population this week in Geneva . More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and Czechoslov akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and Romanians from the east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward migration. This is quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik warned. Migration, many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the factor spur ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the world's soaring p opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's Earth Summit in Ri o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of the natural environ ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda. The Vatican's resistanc e to including population in the talks was unsurprising, but the Philippines and some Middle Eastern countries with high birth rates also proved obstruc tive. Environmental pressure groups, wary of telling developing countries ho w to manage their affairs, were also quiet. Such reticence is difficult to u nderstand in the light of UN population projections - one puts the world's p opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M r Miroslav Macura, demographer with the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r eminded the conference that the total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i f fertility rates turned out to differ even marginally from the model's assu mptions. Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two de cades. India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi ldren per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third in the last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family size, has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children per woman which maintains a static population. But across much of sub-Sahara n Africa, fertility rates have been running at more than 6. Recent studies, although based on less than perfect data, suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti ng only 1 percentage point off population growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren t famine, still has a fertility rate of about 3. According to Mr Fred Sai, p resident of the International Planned Parenthood Federation and chairman of Ghana's population council, African countries now recognise that family plan ning is a tool for health improvement. But the answers to restraining a high growth rate of population are not clear-cut. Recent evidence shows that the traditional assumption that family size falls with economic progress does n ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bulgaria and Kerala in India have all shown sharp falls in family size despite relatively low prosperity, whil e the Gulf states have maintained fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe riod of sharply rising wealth. 'For every level of prosperity, you can find an enormous range of fertility rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni versity. 'The things that really bring down family size are more complex, to do with culture and education'. Contraceptive programmes do help though, th e UNFPA, maintains: it called last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5 bn spent worldwide on family planning programmes to double by 2000. But even if such measures are successful, the population of developing countries wil l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries. Fertility rates i n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per woman - the UK rate is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below West German levels of 1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the Federal Population Inst itute of Germany. The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children in Europe and North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c urrently outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t he number of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today, and could reach 310m in 2025. The idea that any resulting labour gap could b e filled by immigration is disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p er cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working, an d there is plenty of slack.' Past immigration can adversely affect the host country, he added. The availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high-technology industries, he said . It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg e to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences. ----------- ------------------------------------- Immigration pressure on developed coun tries from growth in developing countries' population --------------------- --------------------------- Pop in Increase (million) 1991 by 2005 ---------------------------------------------- -- Western Europe 379 4 Eastern Europe 124 11 E x-Soviet Union 209 10 US 253 81 Medit erranean* 186 158 Latin America 451 289 Tropical Africa 531 826 South Asia 1,206 920 ------------ ------------------------------------ Source: D Coleman, Oxford University *s outh-east Mediterranean ------------------------------------------------ Countries:- QOZ Developed Countries. Indust ries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- G OVT Government News. The Financial Times London Pa ge 9 ============= Transaction # 125 ============================================== Transaction #: 125 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:40:47 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-554 _AN-CI1B0AAPFT 92092 8 FT 28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern Europe By MARTIN WOLF THERE ARE, i t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this aspersion on the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is certainly justifi ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes of eastern and c entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments of control and p ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure, the legacy of th at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present. Nevertheless, statistics a re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe is a region with a signific ant economic potential that is undergoing an unparalleled transformation. Th is week's International Economic Indicators do, therefore, contain the first in a quarterly series on central and eastern Europe, derived from the Easte rn European Statistical Bulletin published by Business Strategies. What thes e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial economies. These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example, fell by 45 per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the chart. The decl ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, though smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal standards. Equally ev ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level has risen no less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has halted its hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better still. In the la tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off adjustment revealin g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an ongoing inflationary pro cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Romania are both still in the grip of soaring prices. What such figures reveal is suggestive . What they conceal is vital. They conceal, for example, the fact most goods were unavailable at their notional prices before liberalisation, at least w ithout queueing for hours. Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the table hides the fact that many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a ctually idle. The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i s the national state statistical offices, which were originally an integral part of the centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat ed with the old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel is the central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio n. The third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W orld Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Each of these so urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But the most importan t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on which everyone m ust ultimately rely. Three big problems arise. First, national accounts were historically based on the concept of net material product (NMP), which excl udes most of the service sector of these economies. The GDP estimates now pr ovided do not yet conform to western systems of national accounts, though ef forts are being made in this direction. Second, many indicators are distorte d by the use of artificial exchange rates. Third and perhaps most important, the burgeoning private sector is still not included in national accounts. D espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on t he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary adju stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get bette r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland and th e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery. Yet these recoveries are vulnerable, as much to political as economic events. Just how vulnerabl e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR into what are soon expecte d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, this division being cert ain to damage the initial economic prospects of both, but particularly of Sl ovakia. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- This table p resents the major economic statistics currently published on six east Europe an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic product (GDP) or net material product (NMP) are in billions of USDollars. Trade figures are in mi llions of USDollars. All are converted from national currency units (NCU) at the exchange rate shown (NCU per Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP or NMP growth is given as an annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly values for consumer prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo rm with 1991=100. Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy ment rate is shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force. ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------- BULGARIA ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------- 1988 19.2 2.5 -840 245 7,212 1989 33.4 -1.6 -1,306 739 11,529 1990 35.7 -9.1 -1,13 5 193 8,302 1991 8.3 -16.7 -887 734 3,443 1st qtr. 1991 na na -411 -69 514 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -239 182 89 8 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 133 378 897 4th qtr . 1991 na na -370 142 969 1st qtr. 1992 na na 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Consumer Industr ial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 na 29.2 136.8 0.0 2.00 1989 na 30.9 135.3 0. 0 1.19 1990 na 37.4 112.6 0.8 1.27 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.9 16.66 1st qtr. 1991 59.5 55.2 110.8 3.8 10.26 2nd q tr. 1991 95.5 80.1 99.3 6.5 17.78 3rd qtr. 1 991 114.6 101.6 89.9 9.5 17.93 4th qtr. 1991 130.4 162.9 100.1 11.6 20.68 1st qtr. 1992 183.6 84.7 14.0 23.66 2nd qtr. 1992 73.1 March 1992 na na -27.1 na April na na -27.6 na May na na -26.4 na June na na -25.1 na --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- CZECH REPUBLIC --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports --------------------------- -------------------------------------------- 1988 26.8 2. 3 -59 316 15,242 1989 26.6 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 24.4 -1.5 -1,1 05 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd qtr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exc hange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 198 8 na 79.5 135.3 0.0 14.36 1989 58.2 81.3 137.0 0.0 15.05 1990 63.8 83.8 132.2 0.7 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.8 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 92.3 8 9.8 na 1.4 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.9 98.0 na 2.3 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 102.6 97.8 na 3.4 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.1 115.7 na 4 .0 29.20 1st qtr. 1992 106.9 na 4.1 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 M arch 1992 11.2 na -18.4 3.7 29.16 April 9.2 na 3.2 29.06 May 7.7 na 2.9 28.84 June na 28.42 -------------------------------- --------------------------------------- SLOVAK REPUBLIC ------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- 1988 11.8 2.3 -59 316 15,242 1989 11.9 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 10.3 -1.5 -1,105 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10 ,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd q tr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 80.2 140.9 0.0 14.36 1989 56.2 82.0 139.8 0.0 15.05 1990 62.0 84.6 134.0 1.5 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.1 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 91.7 90.5 na 3.0 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.4 96.7 na 5 .4 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 103.1 98.0 na 8.7 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.5 117.5 na 11.1 29.20 1 st qtr. 1992 107.9 na 12.6 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 March 1992 10.5 na -22.2 12.3 29.16 April 9.7 na -18.4 11.8 29.06 May 7.8 na 11.3 28.84 June na 28.42 ------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- HUNGARY ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- 1988 27.9 2.6 -807 626 9,999 1 989 29.3 3.7 -1,437 809 9,672 1990 32.9 -3.9 127 929 9,550 1991 267 -1,635 10,729 1st qtr. 1991 na na 159 599 2,171 2nd atr. 1991 na na -271 -1,383 2,109 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 3 91 -604 2,312 4th qtr. 1991 na na -12 -173 4,089 1st qtr. 1992 na na 428 383 2,430 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -451 2,687 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 44.5 144.9 0.3 50.41 1989 na 5 1.9 139.9 0.5 59.07 1990 73.3 63.8 128.1 1.1 63.21 1991 100.0 100.0 1 00.0 na 74.74 1st qtr. 1991 91.1 85.8 112.7 na 70.26 2nd qtr. 1991 99.2 95.3 102.5 na 75.91 3rd qtr. 1991 102.9 105.4 94.8 na 76. 35 4th qtr. 1991 106.8 113.5 89.8 na 76.49 1st q tr. 1992 114.4 111.4 89.3 9.5 78.12 2nd qtr. 19 92 119.8 119.1 87.5 10.9 79.22 March 1992 24.7 na -32.1 na 79.64 April 22.9 na -30.0 na 79.98 May 22.6 na -24.9 na 79.28 June na -19.9 na 78.46 -------------------------------------------------------- --------------- POLAND ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------- Real GDP Current Visi ble GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 68.7 4.7 -275 1,717 13,944 1989 82.2 0.5 -1,586 3,204 13,537 1990 63.9 -11.6 668 5,466 13,626 1991 -1,359 -22 14,971 1st qtr. 1991 na n a -1,134 -389 2,851 2nd qtr. 1991 na na - 531 146 3,504 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 533 112 3,192 4th qtr. 1991 na na -227 62 4,814 1st qtr. 1992 na na 133 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 2.4 3.3 164.9 na 431 1989 8.6 12.8 164.0 na 1,439 1990 58.7 59.4 124.4 5.7 9,500 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 11.8 10,576 1st qtr. 1991 86.9 92.4 109.6 7.0 9,500 2nd qtr. 1991 97.0 92.9 98.5 8.0 10,394 3rd qtr. 1991 103.0 97.3 94.3 10.1 11,298 4th qtr. 1991 113.0 117.4 97.2 11.4 11,112 1st qtr. 1992 127.7 121.9 99.9 12.2 1 2,169 2nd qtr. 1992 12.4 13,675 March 1992 42.4 33.3 -0.8 12.1 13,443 April 43.8 3.5 12.2 13,621 May 2.8 12.3 13,703 June 12.6 13,701 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ ROMANIA ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 60.0 -0.5 3,595 4,288 13,866 1989 53.5 -5.8 2,864 2,117 12,130 1990 37.6 -7.4 -1,656 -3,839 6,375 1991 -1,236 -1,001 4,237 1st qtr. 1991 na na -510 -545 1,032 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -353 -314 987 3rd qtr. 1991 na na -140 -175 928 4th qtr. 1991 na na -233 -186 1,149 1st qtr. 1992 na na -361 845 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -329 1,161 ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Consumer Industrial Industrial Unempl oy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- 1988 na 38.7 152.5 0.0 14.28 19 89 na 39.9 149.0 0.0 14.92 1990 na 41.8 127.7 0.0 22.43 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.1 76.39 1st qtr. 1991 61.7 53.4 100.1 1.3 34.84 2nd qtr. 1991 86.6 95 .2 111.4 2.7 60.29 3rd qtr. 1991 107.5 111.2 100.3 3.5 61.24 4th qtr. 1991 144.3 140.1 8 8.2 4.7 149.18 1st qtr. 1992 216.9 182.3 89.3 6.9 196.84 2nd qtr. 1992 275.0 235.3 81.5 210.89 March 1992 *264.4 *275.3 -15.7 na 198.00 April *201.5 *149.1 -24.5 na 198.40 May *221.7 *134.1 -28.9 na 223.60 June *158.9 -27.1 na -------------------------- --------------------------------------------- * = NB annual percentage chang es, not index nos. Notes: Latest population estimates (end 1991, millions) - Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic 10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di ffers from GDP primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for the current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in italic s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in 1990 was 24. 2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total imports). Sources: Stat e statistical offices and central banks, IMF, World Bank. Data supplied by B usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959) -East European Statistical Bullet in, available quarterly. Not all series are strictly comparable across count ries. For precise definitions and any further information please refer to BS L. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 126 ============================================== Transaction #: 126 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:41:20 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-554 _AN-CI1B0AAPFT 92092 8 FT 28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern Europe By MARTIN WOLF THERE ARE, i t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this aspersion on the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is certainly justifi ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes of eastern and c entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments of control and p ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure, the legacy of th at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present. Nevertheless, statistics a re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe is a region with a signific ant economic potential that is undergoing an unparalleled transformation. Th is week's International Economic Indicators do, therefore, contain the first in a quarterly series on central and eastern Europe, derived from the Easte rn European Statistical Bulletin published by Business Strategies. What thes e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial economies. These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example, fell by 45 per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the chart. The decl ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, though smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal standards. Equally ev ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level has risen no less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has halted its hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better still. In the la tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off adjustment revealin g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an ongoing inflationary pro cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Romania are both still in the grip of soaring prices. What such figures reveal is suggestive . What they conceal is vital. They conceal, for example, the fact most goods were unavailable at their notional prices before liberalisation, at least w ithout queueing for hours. Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the table hides the fact that many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a ctually idle. The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i s the national state statistical offices, which were originally an integral part of the centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat ed with the old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel is the central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio n. The third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W orld Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Each of these so urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But the most importan t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on which everyone m ust ultimately rely. Three big problems arise. First, national accounts were historically based on the concept of net material product (NMP), which excl udes most of the service sector of these economies. The GDP estimates now pr ovided do not yet conform to western systems of national accounts, though ef forts are being made in this direction. Second, many indicators are distorte d by the use of artificial exchange rates. Third and perhaps most important, the burgeoning private sector is still not included in national accounts. D espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on t he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary adju stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get bette r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland and th e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery. Yet these recoveries are vulnerable, as much to political as economic events. Just how vulnerabl e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR into what are soon expecte d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, this division being cert ain to damage the initial economic prospects of both, but particularly of Sl ovakia. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- This table p resents the major economic statistics currently published on six east Europe an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic product (GDP) or net material product (NMP) are in billions of USDollars. Trade figures are in mi llions of USDollars. All are converted from national currency units (NCU) at the exchange rate shown (NCU per Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP or NMP growth is given as an annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly values for consumer prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo rm with 1991=100. Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy ment rate is shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force. ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------- BULGARIA ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------- 1988 19.2 2.5 -840 245 7,212 1989 33.4 -1.6 -1,306 739 11,529 1990 35.7 -9.1 -1,13 5 193 8,302 1991 8.3 -16.7 -887 734 3,443 1st qtr. 1991 na na -411 -69 514 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -239 182 89 8 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 133 378 897 4th qtr . 1991 na na -370 142 969 1st qtr. 1992 na na 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Consumer Industr ial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 na 29.2 136.8 0.0 2.00 1989 na 30.9 135.3 0. 0 1.19 1990 na 37.4 112.6 0.8 1.27 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.9 16.66 1st qtr. 1991 59.5 55.2 110.8 3.8 10.26 2nd q tr. 1991 95.5 80.1 99.3 6.5 17.78 3rd qtr. 1 991 114.6 101.6 89.9 9.5 17.93 4th qtr. 1991 130.4 162.9 100.1 11.6 20.68 1st qtr. 1992 183.6 84.7 14.0 23.66 2nd qtr. 1992 73.1 March 1992 na na -27.1 na April na na -27.6 na May na na -26.4 na June na na -25.1 na --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- CZECH REPUBLIC --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports --------------------------- -------------------------------------------- 1988 26.8 2. 3 -59 316 15,242 1989 26.6 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 24.4 -1.5 -1,1 05 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd qtr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exc hange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 198 8 na 79.5 135.3 0.0 14.36 1989 58.2 81.3 137.0 0.0 15.05 1990 63.8 83.8 132.2 0.7 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.8 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 92.3 8 9.8 na 1.4 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.9 98.0 na 2.3 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 102.6 97.8 na 3.4 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.1 115.7 na 4 .0 29.20 1st qtr. 1992 106.9 na 4.1 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 M arch 1992 11.2 na -18.4 3.7 29.16 April 9.2 na 3.2 29.06 May 7.7 na 2.9 28.84 June na 28.42 -------------------------------- --------------------------------------- SLOVAK REPUBLIC ------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- 1988 11.8 2.3 -59 316 15,242 1989 11.9 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 10.3 -1.5 -1,105 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10 ,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd q tr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 80.2 140.9 0.0 14.36 1989 56.2 82.0 139.8 0.0 15.05 1990 62.0 84.6 134.0 1.5 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.1 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 91.7 90.5 na 3.0 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.4 96.7 na 5 .4 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 103.1 98.0 na 8.7 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.5 117.5 na 11.1 29.20 1 st qtr. 1992 107.9 na 12.6 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 March 1992 10.5 na -22.2 12.3 29.16 April 9.7 na -18.4 11.8 29.06 May 7.8 na 11.3 28.84 June na 28.42 ------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- HUNGARY ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- 1988 27.9 2.6 -807 626 9,999 1 989 29.3 3.7 -1,437 809 9,672 1990 32.9 -3.9 127 929 9,550 1991 267 -1,635 10,729 1st qtr. 1991 na na 159 599 2,171 2nd atr. 1991 na na -271 -1,383 2,109 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 3 91 -604 2,312 4th qtr. 1991 na na -12 -173 4,089 1st qtr. 1992 na na 428 383 2,430 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -451 2,687 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 44.5 144.9 0.3 50.41 1989 na 5 1.9 139.9 0.5 59.07 1990 73.3 63.8 128.1 1.1 63.21 1991 100.0 100.0 1 00.0 na 74.74 1st qtr. 1991 91.1 85.8 112.7 na 70.26 2nd qtr. 1991 99.2 95.3 102.5 na 75.91 3rd qtr. 1991 102.9 105.4 94.8 na 76. 35 4th qtr. 1991 106.8 113.5 89.8 na 76.49 1st q tr. 1992 114.4 111.4 89.3 9.5 78.12 2nd qtr. 19 92 119.8 119.1 87.5 10.9 79.22 March 1992 24.7 na -32.1 na 79.64 April 22.9 na -30.0 na 79.98 May 22.6 na -24.9 na 79.28 June na -19.9 na 78.46 -------------------------------------------------------- --------------- POLAND ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------- Real GDP Current Visi ble GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 68.7 4.7 -275 1,717 13,944 1989 82.2 0.5 -1,586 3,204 13,537 1990 63.9 -11.6 668 5,466 13,626 1991 -1,359 -22 14,971 1st qtr. 1991 na n a -1,134 -389 2,851 2nd qtr. 1991 na na - 531 146 3,504 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 533 112 3,192 4th qtr. 1991 na na -227 62 4,814 1st qtr. 1992 na na 133 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 2.4 3.3 164.9 na 431 1989 8.6 12.8 164.0 na 1,439 1990 58.7 59.4 124.4 5.7 9,500 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 11.8 10,576 1st qtr. 1991 86.9 92.4 109.6 7.0 9,500 2nd qtr. 1991 97.0 92.9 98.5 8.0 10,394 3rd qtr. 1991 103.0 97.3 94.3 10.1 11,298 4th qtr. 1991 113.0 117.4 97.2 11.4 11,112 1st qtr. 1992 127.7 121.9 99.9 12.2 1 2,169 2nd qtr. 1992 12.4 13,675 March 1992 42.4 33.3 -0.8 12.1 13,443 April 43.8 3.5 12.2 13,621 May 2.8 12.3 13,703 June 12.6 13,701 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ ROMANIA ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 60.0 -0.5 3,595 4,288 13,866 1989 53.5 -5.8 2,864 2,117 12,130 1990 37.6 -7.4 -1,656 -3,839 6,375 1991 -1,236 -1,001 4,237 1st qtr. 1991 na na -510 -545 1,032 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -353 -314 987 3rd qtr. 1991 na na -140 -175 928 4th qtr. 1991 na na -233 -186 1,149 1st qtr. 1992 na na -361 845 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -329 1,161 ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Consumer Industrial Industrial Unempl oy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- 1988 na 38.7 152.5 0.0 14.28 19 89 na 39.9 149.0 0.0 14.92 1990 na 41.8 127.7 0.0 22.43 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.1 76.39 1st qtr. 1991 61.7 53.4 100.1 1.3 34.84 2nd qtr. 1991 86.6 95 .2 111.4 2.7 60.29 3rd qtr. 1991 107.5 111.2 100.3 3.5 61.24 4th qtr. 1991 144.3 140.1 8 8.2 4.7 149.18 1st qtr. 1992 216.9 182.3 89.3 6.9 196.84 2nd qtr. 1992 275.0 235.3 81.5 210.89 March 1992 *264.4 *275.3 -15.7 na 198.00 April *201.5 *149.1 -24.5 na 198.40 May *221.7 *134.1 -28.9 na 223.60 June *158.9 -27.1 na -------------------------- --------------------------------------------- * = NB annual percentage chang es, not index nos. Notes: Latest population estimates (end 1991, millions) - Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic 10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di ffers from GDP primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for the current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in italic s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in 1990 was 24. 2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total imports). Sources: Stat e statistical offices and central banks, IMF, World Bank. Data supplied by B usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959) -East European Statistical Bullet in, available quarterly. Not all series are strictly comparable across count ries. For precise definitions and any further information please refer to BS L. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 127 ============================================== Transaction #: 127 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:41:22 Selec. Rec. #: 6 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-554 _AN-CI1B0AAPFT 92092 8 FT 28 SEP 92 / The birth pangs of a capitalist eastern Europe By MARTIN WOLF THERE ARE, i t has been said, lies, damned lies and statistics. Whether this aspersion on the world's statistical organisations is justified, it is certainly justifi ed of the statistics produced by the late communist regimes of eastern and c entral Europe. To these regimes statistics were instruments of control and p ropaganda. As with the economies they purported to measure, the legacy of th at unhappy past lingers into a difficult present. Nevertheless, statistics a re needed, warts and all, because eastern Europe is a region with a signific ant economic potential that is undergoing an unparalleled transformation. Th is week's International Economic Indicators do, therefore, contain the first in a quarterly series on central and eastern Europe, derived from the Easte rn European Statistical Bulletin published by Business Strategies. What thes e statistics describe is the fate of the old socialist industrial economies. These have collapsed. Industrial output in Poland, for example, fell by 45 per cent between early 1989 and mid-1991, as is shown in the chart. The decl ines measured for Hungary and the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, though smaller than for Poland, were still huge by any normal standards. Equally ev ident is the appearance of open inflation. Poland's price level has risen no less than forty-fold since early 1989. Nevertheless, Poland has halted its hyperinflation, while the CSFR and Hungary have done better still. In the la tter two countries the inflation has been more a one-off adjustment revealin g hitherto concealed inflationary pressures than an ongoing inflationary pro cess of the kind that beset Poland. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Romania are both still in the grip of soaring prices. What such figures reveal is suggestive . What they conceal is vital. They conceal, for example, the fact most goods were unavailable at their notional prices before liberalisation, at least w ithout queueing for hours. Similarly, the rise in unemployment shown in the table hides the fact that many workers, though supposedly 'employed', were a ctually idle. The data are obtained through three main channels. The first i s the national state statistical offices, which were originally an integral part of the centrally planned economies. These offices were closely associat ed with the old bureaucracy and its network of controls. The second channel is the central bank of each country, the source of much financial informatio n. The third is international financial institutions, such as the IMF, the W orld Bank and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Each of these so urces has its particular advantages and disadvantages. But the most importan t difficulties lie with the official statistical offices on which everyone m ust ultimately rely. Three big problems arise. First, national accounts were historically based on the concept of net material product (NMP), which excl udes most of the service sector of these economies. The GDP estimates now pr ovided do not yet conform to western systems of national accounts, though ef forts are being made in this direction. Second, many indicators are distorte d by the use of artificial exchange rates. Third and perhaps most important, the burgeoning private sector is still not included in national accounts. D espite these difficulties, it has been decided to present figures based on t he official sources rather than make what would inevitably be arbitrary adju stments. In time, the data will get better. But they will probably get bette r as slowly as the economies, which - at least in the cases of Poland and th e CSFR - are now showing some modest signs of recovery. Yet these recoveries are vulnerable, as much to political as economic events. Just how vulnerabl e is revealed by the table's division of the CSFR into what are soon expecte d to be the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic, this division being cert ain to damage the initial economic prospects of both, but particularly of Sl ovakia. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- This table p resents the major economic statistics currently published on six east Europe an countries. Current price figures for gross domestic product (GDP) or net material product (NMP) are in billions of USDollars. Trade figures are in mi llions of USDollars. All are converted from national currency units (NCU) at the exchange rate shown (NCU per Dollars , period avgs). Constant price GDP or NMP growth is given as an annual percentage change. Yearly and quarterly values for consumer prices, wages and industrial production are in index fo rm with 1991=100. Monthly values are annual percentage changes. The unemploy ment rate is shown as a percentage of the civilian labour force. ---------- ------------------------------------------------------------- BULGARIA ---- ------------------------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------- 1988 19.2 2.5 -840 245 7,212 1989 33.4 -1.6 -1,306 739 11,529 1990 35.7 -9.1 -1,13 5 193 8,302 1991 8.3 -16.7 -887 734 3,443 1st qtr. 1991 na na -411 -69 514 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -239 182 89 8 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 133 378 897 4th qtr . 1991 na na -370 142 969 1st qtr. 1992 na na 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Consumer Industr ial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 na 29.2 136.8 0.0 2.00 1989 na 30.9 135.3 0. 0 1.19 1990 na 37.4 112.6 0.8 1.27 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.9 16.66 1st qtr. 1991 59.5 55.2 110.8 3.8 10.26 2nd q tr. 1991 95.5 80.1 99.3 6.5 17.78 3rd qtr. 1 991 114.6 101.6 89.9 9.5 17.93 4th qtr. 1991 130.4 162.9 100.1 11.6 20.68 1st qtr. 1992 183.6 84.7 14.0 23.66 2nd qtr. 1992 73.1 March 1992 na na -27.1 na April na na -27.6 na May na na -26.4 na June na na -25.1 na --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- CZECH REPUBLIC --- -------------------------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports --------------------------- -------------------------------------------- 1988 26.8 2. 3 -59 316 15,242 1989 26.6 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 24.4 -1.5 -1,1 05 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd qtr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exc hange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 198 8 na 79.5 135.3 0.0 14.36 1989 58.2 81.3 137.0 0.0 15.05 1990 63.8 83.8 132.2 0.7 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.8 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 92.3 8 9.8 na 1.4 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.9 98.0 na 2.3 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 102.6 97.8 na 3.4 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.1 115.7 na 4 .0 29.20 1st qtr. 1992 106.9 na 4.1 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 M arch 1992 11.2 na -18.4 3.7 29.16 April 9.2 na 3.2 29.06 May 7.7 na 2.9 28.84 June na 28.42 -------------------------------- --------------------------------------- SLOVAK REPUBLIC ------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- Real NMP Current Visible NMP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- 1988 11.8 2.3 -59 316 15,242 1989 11.9 0.7 439 188 14,454 1990 10.3 -1.5 -1,105 -1,279 11,922 1991 -19.2 328 926 10 ,895 1st qtr. 1991 na na -473 -412 1,854 2nd q tr. 1991 na na 99 48 2,835 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 148 660 2,753 4th qtr. 1991 na na 554 589 3,408 1st qtr. 1992 na na 295 554 2,102 2nd qtr. 1992 na na 473 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 80.2 140.9 0.0 14.36 1989 56.2 82.0 139.8 0.0 15.05 1990 62.0 84.6 134.0 1.5 17.95 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.1 29.48 1st qtr. 1991 91.7 90.5 na 3.0 27.88 2nd qtr. 1991 100.4 96.7 na 5 .4 30.32 3rd qtr. 1991 103.1 98.0 na 8.7 30.52 4th qtr. 1991 104.5 117.5 na 11.1 29.20 1 st qtr. 1992 107.9 na 12.6 28.77 2nd qtr. 1992 na 28.77 March 1992 10.5 na -22.2 12.3 29.16 April 9.7 na -18.4 11.8 29.06 May 7.8 na 11.3 28.84 June na 28.42 ------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- HUNGARY ------------------------------------------- ---------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- 1988 27.9 2.6 -807 626 9,999 1 989 29.3 3.7 -1,437 809 9,672 1990 32.9 -3.9 127 929 9,550 1991 267 -1,635 10,729 1st qtr. 1991 na na 159 599 2,171 2nd atr. 1991 na na -271 -1,383 2,109 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 3 91 -604 2,312 4th qtr. 1991 na na -12 -173 4,089 1st qtr. 1992 na na 428 383 2,430 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -451 2,687 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate --------------- -------------------------------------------------------- 1988 na 44.5 144.9 0.3 50.41 1989 na 5 1.9 139.9 0.5 59.07 1990 73.3 63.8 128.1 1.1 63.21 1991 100.0 100.0 1 00.0 na 74.74 1st qtr. 1991 91.1 85.8 112.7 na 70.26 2nd qtr. 1991 99.2 95.3 102.5 na 75.91 3rd qtr. 1991 102.9 105.4 94.8 na 76. 35 4th qtr. 1991 106.8 113.5 89.8 na 76.49 1st q tr. 1992 114.4 111.4 89.3 9.5 78.12 2nd qtr. 19 92 119.8 119.1 87.5 10.9 79.22 March 1992 24.7 na -32.1 na 79.64 April 22.9 na -30.0 na 79.98 May 22.6 na -24.9 na 79.28 June na -19.9 na 78.46 -------------------------------------------------------- --------------- POLAND ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------- Real GDP Current Visi ble GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 68.7 4.7 -275 1,717 13,944 1989 82.2 0.5 -1,586 3,204 13,537 1990 63.9 -11.6 668 5,466 13,626 1991 -1,359 -22 14,971 1st qtr. 1991 na n a -1,134 -389 2,851 2nd qtr. 1991 na na - 531 146 3,504 3rd qtr. 1991 na na 533 112 3,192 4th qtr. 1991 na na -227 62 4,814 1st qtr. 1992 na na 133 2nd qtr. 1992 na na ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Industrial Industrial Unemploy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate -------- --------------------------------------------------------------- 1988 2.4 3.3 164.9 na 431 1989 8.6 12.8 164.0 na 1,439 1990 58.7 59.4 124.4 5.7 9,500 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 11.8 10,576 1st qtr. 1991 86.9 92.4 109.6 7.0 9,500 2nd qtr. 1991 97.0 92.9 98.5 8.0 10,394 3rd qtr. 1991 103.0 97.3 94.3 10.1 11,298 4th qtr. 1991 113.0 117.4 97.2 11.4 11,112 1st qtr. 1992 127.7 121.9 99.9 12.2 1 2,169 2nd qtr. 1992 12.4 13,675 March 1992 42.4 33.3 -0.8 12.1 13,443 April 43.8 3.5 12.2 13,621 May 2.8 12.3 13,703 June 12.6 13,701 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------------ ROMANIA ------------------ ----------------------------------------------------- Real GDP Current Visible GDP Growth Balance Balance Exports ------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- 1988 60.0 -0.5 3,595 4,288 13,866 1989 53.5 -5.8 2,864 2,117 12,130 1990 37.6 -7.4 -1,656 -3,839 6,375 1991 -1,236 -1,001 4,237 1st qtr. 1991 na na -510 -545 1,032 2nd qtr. 1991 na na -353 -314 987 3rd qtr. 1991 na na -140 -175 928 4th qtr. 1991 na na -233 -186 1,149 1st qtr. 1992 na na -361 845 2nd qtr. 1992 na na -329 1,161 ----------------------------------------------------- ------------------ Consumer Industrial Industrial Unempl oy- Exchange Prices Wages Production ment Rate Rate ------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- 1988 na 38.7 152.5 0.0 14.28 19 89 na 39.9 149.0 0.0 14.92 1990 na 41.8 127.7 0.0 22.43 1991 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.1 76.39 1st qtr. 1991 61.7 53.4 100.1 1.3 34.84 2nd qtr. 1991 86.6 95 .2 111.4 2.7 60.29 3rd qtr. 1991 107.5 111.2 100.3 3.5 61.24 4th qtr. 1991 144.3 140.1 8 8.2 4.7 149.18 1st qtr. 1992 216.9 182.3 89.3 6.9 196.84 2nd qtr. 1992 275.0 235.3 81.5 210.89 March 1992 *264.4 *275.3 -15.7 na 198.00 April *201.5 *149.1 -24.5 na 198.40 May *221.7 *134.1 -28.9 na 223.60 June *158.9 -27.1 na -------------------------- --------------------------------------------- * = NB annual percentage chang es, not index nos. Notes: Latest population estimates (end 1991, millions) - Bulgaria 9.0; Czech Republic 10.3; Slovak Republic 5.3; Hungary 10.3; Polan d 38.3; Romania 23.2. GDP estimates are mainly derived from NMP data. NMP di ffers from GDP primarily in its exclusion of the service sector. Figures for the current balance refer only to trade in convertible currencies. Visible balance and export data include all trade. Czech and Slovak values in italic s are federal figures. (As a rough guide, Slovak trade share in 1990 was 24. 2% of total Czechoslovak exports, and 25.7% of total imports). Sources: Stat e statistical offices and central banks, IMF, World Bank. Data supplied by B usiness Strategies Ltd (Tel 071 630 5959) -East European Statistical Bullet in, available quarterly. Not all series are strictly comparable across count ries. For precise definitions and any further information please refer to BS L. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 128 ============================================== Transaction #: 128 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:41:24 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 129 ============================================== Transaction #: 129 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:08 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 130 ============================================== Transaction #: 130 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:09 Selec. Rec. #: 7 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5357 _AN-EIECYAA8FT 9409 05 FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall By ANGUS FOSTER Brazil looks set to e nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'. According to projections ma de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m by the year 2000. But accor ding to latest predictions, the total will be far less, probably 172m. The r easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in other La tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female fertility rate s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid urbanisation. The consequences, which include an ageing society and serious strains on social and employment needs, have not yet been addressed. 'It is the population ab ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades. Brazil will have to liv e with this phenomenon, which is well known in developed countries, without having overcome typical problems related to under-development,' says demogra phics professor Jose de Carvalho. Brazil's population change started in the 1940s. Improved medical and basic services led to falling mortality rates. F ertility rates remained high until the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po pulation growth and a society with more than half its members under 20 years old. It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first i nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's population was 100m and expected to double rapidly. But the female fertility rate - th e average number of births per child-bearing woman - began a startling fall from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975 and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa ulo state, Brazil's richest, the fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d eveloped countries. The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa tion, as families moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r eason was increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe r cent of women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr aceptive. Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p er cent used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent. These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic cou ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal unless t he woman has been raped or is in medical danger. Officially, the church prom otes the Billings method, which teaches couples to avoid sex during ovulatio n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the church is, unofficially, more l iberal than it appears or losing its sway. Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If a couple asked advice on sterilisation, which is rare, I would take into acc ount their economic situation and number of children, the love between them and whether another method is possible. 'But the couple must decide, and tha t's something we should not and cannot try to stop. And their decision has t o be supported, too. This might be criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea ling with people in real situations,' he says. The increasing demand for ste rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has helped make Brazil the world leader for caesarian births. These account for roughly one in three deliver ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales. The reasons are complex. So me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way to give birth, a view hospit als encourage, while others fear the pain involved in vaginal deliveries. An other reason is that when giving birth by caesarian, a woman can request to be sterilised at the same time and the government pays. Outside pregnancy, w omen have to pay to be sterilised, usually at semi-legal clinics. The declin ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades. Population gro wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9 per cent and is still declining. Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde r 15 years old. By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By about 2040, with a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22 0m and stabilise or even fall. This prompts the church and other anti-aborti on groups to argue that population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi ally given the country's undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula tion will also allow better government planning. In the past, rapid populati on growth in cities, for example, has prevented governments developing long- term urban plans. But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges . The number of people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for the next decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs. The soc ial security system, established when the average age at death was 45, must be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and women re spectively. The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p reventative medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei ng population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families will need extra services. Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware of these challenges. Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990 census was postponed to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi ngs are available. Countries:- BRZ Brazil, South Ame rica. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Healt h Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 5 ============= Transaction # 131 ============================================== Transaction #: 131 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:14 Selec. Rec. #: 8 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-9545 _AN-DHIDBAD6FT 9308 09 FT 09 AUG 93 / International Bonds: Hopes of interest rate cuts fuel European revival By SARA WEBB INTEREST rate fever swept through the European bond markets last week with the birth of a brave new world of floating exchange rates. The dec ision by European Community finance ministers, taken early on August 2, to m ove from a fairly rigid European exchange rate mechanism based on narrow flu ctuation bands to one where the fluctuation bands of 15 per cent are so wide as to be irrelevant, triggered a strong rally in European bonds. This was p rompted on the view that European governments would be free to kick-start th eir recession-hit economies by swiftly cutting domestic interest rates. In f act, few cut rates once the shackles were removed, and those who did were fa r from bold. The Bundesbank surprised the markets with a 15 basis point cut in the fixed rate for 14-day repos, to 6.80 per cent, and an easing in the 2 8-day repo rate, to 6.70 per cent - which put the latter below the discount rate of 6.75 per cent. Spain cut its benchmark interest rate by half a point , to 10.5 per cent, while Sweden snipped 25 basis points off its marginal le nding rate, to 8.25 per cent. However, there is ample scope for European int erest rates to fall further, and the bond markets have soared in response. E ven the Ecu bond market - which is so sensitive to shifts in sentiment regar ding the future of Europe - saw a sudden renewal of interest last week. Howe ver, while its short-term prospects make it attractive to some investors, th ere is still a large question mark over its longer-term attractions. The Ecu bond market took off last week mainly because investors realised the bonds were too cheap, while providing a relatively simple means of benefiting from the potential for interest rate cuts across Europe. 'It's a cost-effective way of gaining exposure to European markets - people buy it as a way of savi ng dealing costs,' says Mr Michael Burke, economist at Citibank. The actual yield on Ecu bonds was higher than the theoretical yield curve (calculated a ccording to the bond yields of the Ecu's component currencies), which meant the bonds were cheap relative to the theoretical value. However, last week's rally in the Ecu bond market pushed actual yields below theoretical yields. For example, the actual yield on the 8 per cent, 10-year French Ecu bond wa s 6.99 per cent on Friday, or 7 basis points below its theoretical yield, wh ile three-month UK Ecu treasury bills had an actual yield of 7.9 per cent, c ompared with a theoretical yield of 7.95 per cent. 'The actual yield could b e as much as 20 to 30 basis points lower than the theoretical yield, and the bonds would still represent good value because of the transaction cost-savi ng,' says Mr Burke. Mr Bob Tyley, head of bond analysis at Paribas Capital M arkets, points out that for investors based outside Europe, the move from se mi-fixed to floating exchange rates means there is more uncertainty over whi ch currency will do what. As a result, the basket nature of the Ecu becomes more important, given that the Ecu can be used as a substitute means of inve sting in Europe, he says. Yet for all the short-term euphoria springing from the move to wider fluctuation bands in the ERM, there is still considerable concern over the future of the Ecu. 'The whole prospect of European monetar y union is, if not dead, at least on its death-bed, so it is highly unlikely that the Ecu bond market will enjoy the same attractions as it did before t he first Danish referendum on the Maastricht treaty,' says Mr Burke. If ther e are grave doubts over whether the Ecu will become the single currency for Europe, investors and issuers may well wonder why they should bother with a market which does not have much of a future and which could suffer from illi quidity - even if Mr John Major does try to relaunch the plan for a hard Ecu . Ecu bond issuance has certainly dried up since the Danes dealt a blow to h opes of European economic and monetary union last summer. Ecu bond specialis ts, meanwhile, admit it is hard to see why issuers should tap this market at the moment. In the past, some issues have been swap-driven, but dealers say there are few favourable swap opportunities in Ecu. So if there is to be a fresh drive to revive the Ecu bond market, it may well have to be politicall y motivated. In the past, France was one of the keenest advocates of Ecu bon d issuance, and had undertaken to conduct about 15 per cent of its funding i n Ecu. However, given that French government bond yields are lower than Ecu bond yields, there is no financial incentive for the French to issue Ecu-den ominated debt, although those with a keen interest in the Ecu market no doub t will be watching closely to see just how committed the Ecu's supporters pr ove to be. Countries:- ESZ Spain, EC. GBZ Unite d Kingdom, EC. DKZ Denmark, EC. FRZ France, EC. USZ United St ates of America. DEZ Germany, EC. JPZ Japan, Asia. CAZ Canada . AUZ Australia. CHZ Switzerland, West Europe. LUZ Luxembourg , EC. Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetar y Policy. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. MKTS M arket data. The Financial Times London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 132 ============================================== Transaction #: 132 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:22 Selec. Rec. #: 9 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT944-8993 _AN-EKQEIAEIFT 9411 17 FT 17 NOV 94 / A tough act to follow: Japanese busine ss is hoping for monetary relaxation under a new central bank governor By GERARD BAKER In a deserted Tokyo, at midnight, a huddle of people gathered last week for an out-of-hours announce ment. Mr Yasuo Matsushita, a former bureaucrat and commercial banker, had be en selected as Japan's next central bank governor. The late-night timing cou ld hardly have heightened the interest in the appointment: few are the Japan ese businessmen and financiers who have not hoped for a softening in monetar y policy with the ending of the dramatic tenure of outgoing governor Mr Yasu shi Mieno. The current restructuring of the Japanese economy owes much to Mr Mieno's vision, and the slowness of the recovery something to his disciplin e. He moved to curb the unbridled growth of the 1980s, and has since held to a policy designed to squeeze Japan's corporate sector. Mr Matsushita's task will be to steer the economy through the fallout from this process: refinin g the balancing after the overhaul. Such an agenda is unlikely to prompt a c hange of course on the scale witnessed by Mr Mieno, but it may prove as cont roversial. When Mr Mieno took office five years ago Japan's wild financial p arty of the late 1980s was at its high point. Financial liberalisation, rapi d economic growth and easy money had given birth to a bubble economy. What b egan as an explosion in land prices, in cramped conditions of tight supply a nd ballooning demand, had quickly spread to embrace equities, bonds, and eve n golf-club memberships. By the time of Mr Mieno's accession, land prices ha d risen fivefold in a little over three years, and the stock market had trip led in four. Appalled by the lack of financial control, Mr Mieno, something of an ascetic said never to have bought a share in his life, acted quickly t o burst the bubble. Within three weeks he had cut financial sector liquidity and over the next 15 months he raised the discount rate five times, taking it from 2.5 to 6 per cent by the end of 1990. The recession that followed pr oved the most serious in Japan since the second world war. Share prices coll apsed by more than 50 per cent in four years, and land prices fell by up to 70 per cent. As domestic demand fell, corporate Japan was hit by overcapacit y. The rise in the yen, prompted by rising interest rates, the large and ris ing current account surplus and a slowdown in Japanese overseas investment, led to declining demand in export markets. The underlying inefficiency of mu ch of Japanese industry was exposed. The central bank responded to the reces sion with increasingly urgent cuts in interest rates, taking the official di scount rate to a record low of 1.75 per cent last autumn. In the year since, the first signs of sluggish recovery have emerged, with the economy expecte d to expand by about 1 per cent this year, accelerating slowly thereafter. B ut the weakness of the recovery presents the new governor with a challenge a s difficult as the one that faced his predecessor: he must find the right mi x of monetary policy to meet an exacting set of demands. In addition to the usual need to sustain non-inflationary growth, policy must deal with the con tinuing financial consequences of the collapse of the bubble - corporate ind ebtedness and the banking system's bad loans. It must also address the longe r-term transformation of the economy into an efficient, deregulated market s ystem. So far under Mr Mieno, the bank's approach has been a surprising one - a gentle tightening of monetary conditions. Since July, overnight call rat es have been allowed to drift upwards - from 2 per cent in July to 2.3 per c ent last week. 'Since the summer the bank has moved gradually to tighten liq uidity, which has pushed up short-term interest rates,' says Mr Richard Wern er, chief economist at Jardine Fleming in Tokyo. Many economists are puzzled by the bank's tactics. If the slow upturn had been accompanied by the meres t hint of inflation, monetary tightening would have been comprehensible. In fact the opposite has occurred. The recovery is so weak that it has failed t o counteract the prevailing deflationary forces at work. Wholesale prices ar e falling at a rate of 2 per cent a year and consumer prices are stable. So the bank's tightening, though gentle for the moment, seems unnecessary. The risks associated with it also appear to be unbalanced. There is an infinites imal risk of inflation if policy is relaxed, but a significant risk of renew ed economic slowdown if policy is tightened. Confronted with this choice the bank has elected to tighten. Mr Toshio Koyano, economist at DKB Research in Tokyo, says: 'The BoJ's move in the past few months has been premature - re straining monetary growth now carries a risk of endangering the recovery.' M ost central bankers have a weakness for what Lord Healey, chancellor in the last British Labour government, called sado-monetarism. But in the Bank of J apan's case, there seems to be a more rational explanation for the strategy, based on Mr Mieno's increasingly bullish view of economic prospects. The ba nk's official judgment is that the economy is 'in the early stages of recove ry', a much less cautious view than one espoused by other public bodies. Bel ieving this, the bank's behaviour has differed in this cycle from its polici es in previous cycles. In the last two recessions of the 1980s, interest rat es were still allowed to fall even after the output gap - the difference bet ween actual output and potential output - had started to narrow. Interest ra tes began to ease upwards only when inflationary pressures had clearly retur ned to the economy. This time, the bank is tying monetary policy to its perc eption of the performance of the real economy, rather than price levels. It has acted to raise interest rates as soon as the output gap has started to c lose - even though inflation is falling. The bank 'has placed overwhelming e mphasis on the pace of economic recovery -not inflation - as the key policy determinant,' explains Mr Feldman, chief economist at Salomon Brothers. The reason appears to be that the bank is determined to use monetary policy to promote the restructuring of the economy. The long recession and the rise in the value of the yen have forced companies to begin to reduce the overcapac ity produced during the bubble. According to Mr James Vestal, chief economis t at Barclays de Zoete Wedd in Tokyo: 'By allowing the economy to work throu gh the excesses of the second half of the 1980s on its own, the bank will en sure that the momentum for deregulation, restructuring and change remains in tact.' Mr Matsushita may wish to follow the policy of squeezing the corporat e sector. But as former chairman of Sakura, a bank with one of the largest p ortfolios of bad loans, he will be more aware than most of the significant r isk of a crisis in the financial sector. Japanese banks have not moved quick ly to rid themselves of the problem loans collected in the bubble years. The leading banks have made provisions of just Y3,000bn out of as much as Y30,0 00bn. Years of sluggish economic growth, however cathartic for manufacturers , would be difficult for the banks, for which it means weak demand, continui ng asset problems and poor profitability. Worse, the present monetary tighte ning is potentially ruinous for them. Already the upward drift in short-term rates has pushed up banks' funding costs. As interest rates rise, banks' in terest costs rise more quickly than their income, because of the structure o f their assets and liabilities. That is already putting pressure on margins and will limit further their scope to dispose of bad debts. Financial market s are speculating that Mr Matsushita, with his direct experience of the bank ing sector, might adopt an easier monetary policy to assist the banks. But m ore likely, the other, longer part of his experience - as a bureaucrat in th e finance ministry - will incline him towards a middle course. Macroeconomic policy is likely to be geared towards restrained growth to maintain the pre ssure on corporate Japan, while banks will be nursed back to health by micro -management. 'The focus will be on case-by-case problem solving of particula r banks' balance sheet problems,' says Mr Jesper Koll, of JP Morgan in Tokyo . 'The governor will act as a hands-on manager of these issues. Interest rat e policy will not change for the time being.' The implications of that strat egy are far-reaching. Policy will not be dictated by the fear of a banking c ollapse. Instead, some banks may be allowed to fail if they do not represent a risk to the banking system. Mr Matsushita will need to draw on all the cr edit that his years in the banking sector have given him if he is to achieve that. Countries:- JPZ Japan, Asia. Indus tries:- P6011 Federal Reserve Banks. P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 21 ============= Transaction # 133 ============================================== Transaction #: 133 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:42:30 Selec. Rec. #: 10 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-5103 _AN-CFBA3ADDFT 9206 02 FT 02 JUN 92 / Survey of The Earth Summit (8): Popula tion surge is a crucial issue - There may well be 10bn people on the earth b y the year 2050 By HILARY DE BOERR THE WORLD'S population is growing at an unprecedented rate, consuming more r esources than ever - nearly a billion people will be added to the planet dur ing the 1990s, according to the Worldwatch Institute. As the number of poor people is increasing, human migration is growing and renewable resources, su ch as water and land are increasingly under threat. Such realities make the population issue a crucial one for sustainable development. There are about 5.5bn people in the world, with an average annual increase of 97m projected for the coming decade. International experts agree that population growth ra tes will have to be reduced, and the pattern of human activities changed, if ecological catastrophe is to be averted. The two go hand-in-hand because it is not simply high population growth rates that are threatening the environ ment. Developed countries, with relatively low birth rates, consume most of the world's resources. A Bangladeshi, for example, consumes energy equivalen t to three barrels of oil a year, a US citizen 55 barrels. As Oxfam puts it: 'Industrialised countries generate significantly more damage per person to the global environment than do people in developing countries.' Sustainable development therefore calls for a fairer distribution of the benefits of dev elopment among the world's people. High population growth rates in developin g countries - where 80 per cent of the world's population lives - will, neve rtheless, put even greater pressure on the world's resources. The higher the population in developing countries, the higher their energy use and polluti on, especially as economies develop. More water is needed, more forests are cleared, inappropriate agricultural practices increase and wildlife species disappear. Population growth in developing countries is responsible for abou t 79 per cent of deforestation, 72 per cent of arable land expansion and 69 per cent of the growth in livestock numbers. Such problems are further compo unded by the increasing migration of people - to urban areas and to environm entally sensitive inland areas - in search of productive land and jobs. Addr essing high birth rates means addressing poverty in such countries, say inte rnational agencies. More than 1bn people live in absolute poverty without ad equate food, clothing or housing. North-South relationships regarding debt, trade, aid and technology transfer are seen as longer-term means of tackling poverty. Programmes to tackle high birth rates focus on improving third wor ld health and education, and providing readily available and affordable fami ly planning. Practice shows that birth rates can be reduced voluntarily by r aising the status of women through education and providing them with opportu nities other than the traditional child bearing role. It is thought that mor e than one in five births in developing countries may be unwanted. The worst case scenario for the population explosion is that there could be 12.5bn pe ople in the world by 2050 if immediate action is not taken. The most likely scenario is a figure of 10bn people. Fertility patterns can change in just o ne decade. Development and consumption patterns will have to follow suit, sa ys the United Nations Population Fund. 'World resources are adequate for the sustained development of the planet - if they are carefully used,' it warns . The Financial Times London Page V ============= Transaction # 134 ============================================== Transaction #: 134 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:43:16 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 135 ============================================== Transaction #: 135 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:43:55 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 136 ============================================== Transaction #: 136 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:43:57 Selec. Rec. #: 11 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-1806 _AN-DCXCKAG8FT 9303 23 FT 23 MAR 93 / Wave of immigration at new peak: Weste rn Europe and North America each take over 1m a year in 1991 and 1992 By BRONWEN MADDOX GENEVA WESTERN Europe and North America each received more than 1m immigr ants in 1991 and 1992, a United Nations Conference on European population, w hich opens today in Geneva, is to be told. The total, mainly relatives joini ng earlier immigrants and a new wave of asylum seekers, is higher than the p revious peak in the early 1960s, according to Mr David Coleman, a demographe r at Oxford University. Immigrants are not generally economically beneficial to their host countries, he argues, although they may solve short-term labo ur problems. 'Only around 60 per cent of the potential workforce in western Europe is actually working and there is plenty of slack to cope with future labour demand,' he says. The past availability of cheap labour may be one fa ctor behind Europe's relative lack of investment in high technology industri es, he adds. The immigration numbers include 250,000 leaving Yugoslavia last year. Germany last year took 438,000 asylum seekers, two thirds of the Euro pean total. But so far 'it is Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia which are t aking the brunt of Russians, gipsies and Romanians from the east,' Mr Colema n says. An outbreak of fighting in Russia could intensify the pressure for w estward migration, and pressure will come too from the projected rise of nea rly 2bn in the populations of the south Mediterranean, tropical Africa and s outh Asia in the next 12 years. The conference, one of five regional debates before next year's UN World Population Conference in Cairo, is expected to call for more money to be spent on family planning to curb high rates of pop ulation growth in developing countries. The UN Population Fund wants the tot al amount of money spent each year to double from the present level of Dolla rs 4.5bn by the year 2000. Developed countries contribute only Dollars 800m of the total, and the Population Fund the main UN family planning agency, ha s seen its budget frozen at Dollars 238m. The conference will also hear warn ings that current projections of the world's population could need considera ble revision. By the year 2050, the world's stable population could be anywh ere between 5bn and 20bn, according to Mr Miroslav Macura, of the UN Economi c Commission for Europe. Present estimates of a doubling in population from the present 5.5bn by that date could be altered by small changes in fertilit y rates, he said. Scientists are also arguing that traditional assumptions b etween economic development and falling birth rates - captured in the phrase 'Development is the best contraception' - no longer appear true. Gulf state s have seen fertility rates - the average family size if the current birth r ate were maintained - of around three, compared to a European average of aro und 1.7, despite a huge increase in wealth. Mr Macura also points out that T hailand, Sri Lanka, and Bulgaria have seen sharp falls in birth rate despite low prosperity levels. Social changes in Europe are causing sharp fluctuati ons in birth rate. East German fertility rates, which were 1.6 before German unification compared to West Germany's 1.4, have now fallen to 0.8 because of uncertainty. However the increasing prosperity of Italy and Spain is thou ght to be responsible for the fall in fertility rates to about 1.2, below We st German levels. Countries:- XGZ Europe. CAZ C anada. Industries:- P9721 International Affairs. Types:- GOVT Government News. The Financial Times International Page 3 ============= Transaction # 137 ============================================== Transaction #: 137 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:43:59 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-13785 _AN-EDVCVAHRFT 940 422 FT 22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu b around the ministry - Population trends By STEPHAN IE GRAY Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc e for population and development next September. Seven thousand experts will be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its achievement of reducing growth i n the birth rate, among its 61m people squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th e country's area, from 3 per cent a year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c ent. A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry, created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October. Egy pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10 years, l argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign. The crude birth rat e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per 1,000 in 1993, while t he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993 . The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3 births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago. Nearly 30 per cent of the se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly supplied by the US Agency for I nternational Development. Thirteen per cent use the pill and the remainder u se traditional methods and condoms - the least popular form of control. (Un happily, several years ago a consignment of condoms donated by the US found its way into the market place where they were sold as children's balloons.) However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to be more difficult. Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo gy of going on a diet to lose weight. 'If you want to lose weight, it is eas y at first. Once you have lost it, keeping the weight off is the difficult p art.' Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e mpty talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b ut there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim, senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the Internati onal Population Council. 'More than half of them do not think that populatio n is a problem. They are products of the socialist era and see development a s the best contraception. But unless they limit family size, there won't be any development,' she says. The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit h the creation of the ministry. The key to further progress lies with improv ements in living standards and education - over which the ministry has no co ntrol. The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives on a total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr en under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population is illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate. Furthermore, attitude s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper Egypt - need to be al tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey shows that 40 per cent of men feel they should have the primary role in decisions about childbeari ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie Stopes clinic in Shoubra, a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80 per cent). Only 27 per c ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and the average number of ch ildren per household is six. In rural areas, children are still regarded as cheap labour; it is no surprise that the highest fertility rates are found w here socio-economic indicators are lowest. These issues are deeply entrenche d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies that this has become a serious problem. The Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has declared that family planning does not contradict the teachings of Allah. But some imams have been preaching again st it in the local mosques. According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some doctors serving in government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan ts who see family planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m ore than a general protest against the government in denying contraceptive a dvice, she says, rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio n. 'It has just become a convenient whipping boy.' More subtly, women survey ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be reacting to advertising in a manner opposite from that intended. When shown two scenes, one with a woman relaxing and painting her finger nails, the other a mother of five rushing a bout doing the housework, they saw the harried housewife as their preferred role model. For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger budget than it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources. Perhaps September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to ensure re newed political will to succeed. Countries:- EGZ Egy pt, Africa. Industries:- P9441 Administration of Social and Manpower Programs. P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financ ial Times London Page VIII ============= Transaction # 138 ============================================== Transaction #: 138 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:20 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-13785 _AN-EDVCVAHRFT 940 422 FT 22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu b around the ministry - Population trends By STEPHAN IE GRAY Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc e for population and development next September. Seven thousand experts will be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its achievement of reducing growth i n the birth rate, among its 61m people squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th e country's area, from 3 per cent a year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c ent. A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry, created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October. Egy pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10 years, l argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign. The crude birth rat e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per 1,000 in 1993, while t he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993 . The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3 births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago. Nearly 30 per cent of the se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly supplied by the US Agency for I nternational Development. Thirteen per cent use the pill and the remainder u se traditional methods and condoms - the least popular form of control. (Un happily, several years ago a consignment of condoms donated by the US found its way into the market place where they were sold as children's balloons.) However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to be more difficult. Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo gy of going on a diet to lose weight. 'If you want to lose weight, it is eas y at first. Once you have lost it, keeping the weight off is the difficult p art.' Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e mpty talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b ut there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim, senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the Internati onal Population Council. 'More than half of them do not think that populatio n is a problem. They are products of the socialist era and see development a s the best contraception. But unless they limit family size, there won't be any development,' she says. The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit h the creation of the ministry. The key to further progress lies with improv ements in living standards and education - over which the ministry has no co ntrol. The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives on a total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr en under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population is illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate. Furthermore, attitude s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper Egypt - need to be al tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey shows that 40 per cent of men feel they should have the primary role in decisions about childbeari ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie Stopes clinic in Shoubra, a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80 per cent). Only 27 per c ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and the average number of ch ildren per household is six. In rural areas, children are still regarded as cheap labour; it is no surprise that the highest fertility rates are found w here socio-economic indicators are lowest. These issues are deeply entrenche d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies that this has become a serious problem. The Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has declared that family planning does not contradict the teachings of Allah. But some imams have been preaching again st it in the local mosques. According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some doctors serving in government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan ts who see family planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m ore than a general protest against the government in denying contraceptive a dvice, she says, rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio n. 'It has just become a convenient whipping boy.' More subtly, women survey ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be reacting to advertising in a manner opposite from that intended. When shown two scenes, one with a woman relaxing and painting her finger nails, the other a mother of five rushing a bout doing the housework, they saw the harried housewife as their preferred role model. For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger budget than it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources. Perhaps September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to ensure re newed political will to succeed. Countries:- EGZ Egy pt, Africa. Industries:- P9441 Administration of Social and Manpower Programs. P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financ ial Times London Page VIII ============= Transaction # 139 ============================================== Transaction #: 139 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:21 Selec. Rec. #: 12 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT942-13785 _AN-EDVCVAHRFT 940 422 FT 22 APR 94 / Survey of Egypt (17): A certain hubbu b around the ministry - Population trends By STEPHAN IE GRAY Egypt is to host the third United Nations conferenc e for population and development next September. Seven thousand experts will be there - and Egypt will be flaunting its achievement of reducing growth i n the birth rate, among its 61m people squeezed into only 4.5 per cent of th e country's area, from 3 per cent a year in 1985 to a 1993 rate of 2.3 per c ent. A certain hubbub has been generated around the new Population Ministry, created after President Hosni Mubarak's cabinet reshuffle last October. Egy pt has made impressive gains in population control over the past 10 years, l argely as a result of an effective advertising campaign. The crude birth rat e has dropped from 39.9 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.2 per 1,000 in 1993, while t he crude death rate has dropped from 9.4 per thousand in 1985 to 7.4 in 1993 . The fertility rate has fallen to an average 3.9 births per woman, from 5.3 births in 1980. About 47 per cent of couples use some form of contraception -almost twice the figure recorded six years ago. Nearly 30 per cent of the se use intra-uterine devices (IUDs) - mostly supplied by the US Agency for I nternational Development. Thirteen per cent use the pill and the remainder u se traditional methods and condoms - the least popular form of control. (Un happily, several years ago a consignment of condoms donated by the US found its way into the market place where they were sold as children's balloons.) However, these gains are now levelling out. The next phase, during which the birth rate should stay the same and the death rate should drop, is going to be more difficult. Dr Maher Mahram, the population minister, uses the analo gy of going on a diet to lose weight. 'If you want to lose weight, it is eas y at first. Once you have lost it, keeping the weight off is the difficult p art.' Meanwhile some critics suggest that the hubbub might be kalam fadi - e mpty talk. 'President Mubarak mentions population in every speech he makes b ut there is no clear commitment from the cabinet,' says Dr Barbara Ibrahim, senior representative for the west and north Africa regions at the Internati onal Population Council. 'More than half of them do not think that populatio n is a problem. They are products of the socialist era and see development a s the best contraception. But unless they limit family size, there won't be any development,' she says. The issue has been 'ghetto-ised' she claims, wit h the creation of the ministry. The key to further progress lies with improv ements in living standards and education - over which the ministry has no co ntrol. The World Bank estimates that 20-25 per cent of the population lives on a total monthly income of less than Dollars 35. Almost one in four childr en under the age of five is malnourished. 36 per cent of the male population is illiterate; 48 per cent of females are illiterate. Furthermore, attitude s among men - particularly in the rural areas of Upper Egypt - need to be al tered. The latest Egypt Demographic and Health Survey shows that 40 per cent of men feel they should have the primary role in decisions about childbeari ng (a figure disputed by Mr Robin Lee at the Marie Stopes clinic in Shoubra, a Cairo suburb, who claims that it is more like 80 per cent). Only 27 per c ent of couples in Upper Egypt use contraception and the average number of ch ildren per household is six. In rural areas, children are still regarded as cheap labour; it is no surprise that the highest fertility rates are found w here socio-economic indicators are lowest. These issues are deeply entrenche d. A more recent one is the rise in Islamic fundamentalism. Dr Mahran denies that this has become a serious problem. The Grand Mufti, Egypt's highest au thority on Islamic jurisprudence, has declared that family planning does not contradict the teachings of Allah. But some imams have been preaching again st it in the local mosques. According to Dr Ibrahim, studies show that some doctors serving in government clinics are being recruited by Islamic militan ts who see family planning as a western plot. The physicians are making no m ore than a general protest against the government in denying contraceptive a dvice, she says, rather than exercising some deeply held religious convictio n. 'It has just become a convenient whipping boy.' More subtly, women survey ed at the Marie Stopes clinic were found to be reacting to advertising in a manner opposite from that intended. When shown two scenes, one with a woman relaxing and painting her finger nails, the other a mother of five rushing a bout doing the housework, they saw the harried housewife as their preferred role model. For these attitudes to change, the ministry needs a much larger budget than it has; Dr Mahran complains about his lack of resources. Perhaps September's conference will give the issue sufficient prestige to ensure re newed political will to succeed. Countries:- EGZ Egy pt, Africa. Industries:- P9441 Administration of Social and Manpower Programs. P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financ ial Times London Page VIII ============= Transaction # 140 ============================================== Transaction #: 140 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:42 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 313 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 141 ============================================== Transaction #: 141 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:42 Selec. Rec. #: 13 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-12410 _AN-EA4DIAAQFT 940 131 FT 31 JAN 94 / Survey of the World's Young People (4 ): The picture still looks grim - Money spent on children's health is not go ing where it is most needed By RACHEL JOHNSON The world spends Dollars 2,000bn on health care a year; the rate at which health has improved since 1950 is unmatched in history. So says the World Bank's recent report, Investing in Health, published last summer. But the Bank also points out that the impressive sums are deceptive. For the mo ney is 'either spent on the wrong things, or wasted.' There should be more ' barefoot medicine' and a wider campaign against poverty: for example, better education for girls and young women, which would result in better child hea lth and smaller families. Nevertheless, the report is at pains to say that b ig spending on health - and it argues that more is needed - does not simply result in more babies and all the dire consequences of over-population. It results in lower child mortality rates and fertility rates (after a lag of a couple of decades), as population growth rates in Asia, Latin America and A frica have shown. Furthermore, it saves money. The potential savings add up to billions of dollars, because premature death or disability lost the world (on the Bank's estimates) 1.4bn years of healthy (in many cases, productive ) life in 1990 alone. But the money is still not going where it is most need ed. According to Unicef's annual report on the state of the world's children - a sometimes harrowing document - 8m children still die every year from fi ve preventable diseases: measles, whooping cough, diarrhoea, tetanus and pne umonia. Even more grim: 1m children have been killed, 4m seriously injured, and 5m have become refugees or orphaned as a result of wars in the past deca de. A child born in 1991 in Romania or even in Turkey, on the borders of the European Union, is five times more likely to die in the first year of life than a child born in Switzerland, Iceland, Sweden, France or the Netherlands . In Turkey there are more than 56 deaths during the first year of life per 1000 live births, compared with six in Sweden. Mortality rates in the third world are considerably worse. In the Irish Republic only 10 children per 1,0 00 live births die before the age of five - Ireland comes near the top of th e Unicef tables. In South America the average equivalent figure is 54, in Ea st Asia 57, in South Asia 131 and in sub Saharan Africa 183. In some African countries almost one third of all children die before they are five. Lookin g at maternal mortality, the European average is 13 deaths in childbirth per 100,000 births. In South America the comparable figure is 210, in South Asi a it is 490, and in sub Saharan Africa almost 600 mothers die in childbirth per 100,000 live births. But even wholescale redistribution of all the money spent on health could never achieve an equal chance of survival. Mortality rates arise from several different factors, such as what social and economic group a child is born into, general standards of living, housing and diet. Access to vaccination is also crucial: there have been big leaps forward in the global immunisation programme. The proportion of children immunised agai nst tuberculosis, measles, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and polio rose fro m 5 per cent in 1977 to 20-30 per cent in 1983. By 1990, immunisation progra mmes against of polio, diphtheria and measles had reached 80 per cent of all children, with 35 per cent of pregnant women receiving tetanus shots. The l owest rate of vaccine coverage was in sub-Saharan Africa. Lurking behind the call to redirect (and slightly increase) the Dollars 2000bn spent world-wid e are wide disparities in health care resources, and the resulting mortality and illness rates. The Bank says that if more money was spent on preventing or curing the most common killers, such as measles, whooping cough, complic ations of pregnancy and water-born diseases, in parts of the world, millions of lives could be saved relatively cheaply. In the developing world, where the amount spent per head on health care is a only a fraction of that spent in the developed world, a little more money would go a long way. By contrast , the Americans spend 14 per cent of the US' gross domestic product on healt h care, compared with 6.1 per cent in the UK, and 8 per cent in Germany, Fra nce and Sweden. Improvements in the developing world's health and child mort ality rates will to a large extent depend on the commitments undertaken by c ountries of the developed world, and improving the health of the world's chi ldren will take a greater international effort. At the World Summit for Chil dren, held in New York in 1990, 71 heads of states signed a plan of action, seeking 'measurable, attainable goals' for countries to incorporate into nat ional planning: eradication of polio by the year 2000; 90 per cent immunisat ion by the same date; a halving of child deaths caused by diarrhoea; and vir tual elimination of vitamin A deficiency. While developing countries - Tunis ia and Zimbabwe among them - have shown themselves capable of reforming thei r health sectors, only 2.5 per cent of all health spending (about Dollars 4. 8bn) in developing countries comes from donors. Meanwhile, the share of tota l development aid for health fell during the 1980s from 7 per cent to 6 per cent. In the UK much remains to be done. The Child Poverty Action Group, the Health Visitors' Association and the Save the Children fund argued in their submission to the health white paper in 1992: 'There are clear links betwee n poverty, environment and children's health. What hope is there for the fut ure health of the nation if the government fails to act to improve the healt h of the nation's children?' Countries:- USZ United States of America. XMZ Africa. XOZ Asia. IEZ Ireland, EC. XEZ South America. GBZ United Kingdom, EC. DEZ Germany, EC. FRZ France, EC. SEZ Sweden, West Europe. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times Survey YOU Page 2 ============= Transaction # 142 ============================================== Transaction #: 142 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:47 Selec. Rec. #: 14 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-3431 _AN-DINC7ADMFT 9309 14 FT 14 SEP 93 / Birth rights and wrongs By JOE ROGALY It was alarming to read last week t hat the use of caesarean operations to deliver British babies has nearly tre bled over the past two decades. It would not have happened if the hospitals and senior doctors had not wrested the delivery business away from perfectly competent midwives. As we shall see in a moment, the government is preparin g to help the midwives win back their lost customer base. It will be a strug gle, but even we males must cheer from the sidelines. The disturbing news co mes in 'Caesarean Birth in Britain', whose authors include Professor Wendy S avage. Remember her? A celebrated campaigner for the right to natural childb irth, she is still consultant obstetrician at the Royal London hospital. Her fellow-writers are Helen Lewison, chairman of the National Childbirth Trust , and two academics. The four of them note that in 1973 the proportion of de liveries by caesarean in England and Wales was an estimated 5.3 per cent. By last year, their research suggests, this figure had risen to 13 per cent. T he book contains a table of hospitals self-confident enough to allow their d ata to be published. It shows that the caesarean operation was used in 7.9 p er cent of deliveries at St John's hospital, Chelmsford, and 21.5 per cent i n Hammersmith, with all the numbers you can think of in between. Even if you take account of the careful note that 'hospitals with high rates may well h ave specialist units and so receive pregnancies which are at greater risk' t his variation is too wide to be explicable to lay observers. The inescapable conclusion is that some caesareans may be medically necessary, but that man y are probably not. This is clearly true in the US where in 1991 nearly a qu arter of all babies were delivered by caesarean, at a cost of Dollars 7.7bn. That is the highest caesar-rate bar Brazil's, at doubtless the highest cost per delivery bar none, yet the US infant mortality record is worse than tha t of Japan, Sweden, Holland or Britain. Fear of being sued is one reason, bu t the self-interest of the surgeon must surely be another. The use of the ob stetrician's knife has increased in most developed countries, in concert, I suspect, with a growth in the sales of Jaguars, Mercedes and Cadillac cars t o successful consultants. The process is not otherwise comprehensible. Accor ding to a US study, within a team of obstetricians caring for 1,553 affluent low-risk women at a community hospital, one practitioner operated in 19.1 p er cent of births, another at a rate of 42.3 per cent. Talk to almost any ne w mother and you will be deluged with anecdotal evidence suggesting that the convenience of the hospital, or its consultants, has a lot to do with the g rowth in the use of technological interventions. Mrs Virginia Bottomley, UK secretary for health, should arrange for league tables to be published annua lly, showing which maternity units use the most forceps deliveries, which th e most caesareans, which induce labour most often - and which produce the hi ghest proportions of healthy infants. Explanations and excuses could accompa ny the lists. She should, however, be warned. The consultants, presumably ex cluding Professor Savage, will squeal. The West Midlands Regional Health Aut hority published league tables showing how long patients must wait for an op eration with each of its 2,000 consultant surgeons. The British Medical Asso ciation was outraged. We may place our lives in the hands of this or that me dical specialist, but doctors acting in a collective cannot be trusted with our wallets. Their trade unions, like the BMA, are among the most astute in the business; the higher up the professional scale their associations go, th e more wily they become. This is being demonstrated once again in the argume nt about midwives. A few weeks ago the government published a report on the maternity services drawn up by an expert committee under the chairmanship of Baroness Cumberlege. It noted the current department of health view that bi rths should take place in hospital, since 'unforeseen complications can occu r in any birth', and set against it last year's pronouncement from the House of Commons select committee on health that 'encouraging all women to give b irth in hospitals cannot be justified on grounds of safety'. The Cumberlege report puts into moderate, semi-official language the deepest wishes of the National Childbirth Trust, aspirations that were once regarded as cranky non sense. It calls for 'woman-centred care', meaning that the prospective mothe r should be in control. She should be able to choose who takes her case, be it midwife, general practitioner or obstetrician. She should be able to arra nge for a home birth, although she should then be given a health warning abo ut the risks. She might reasonably expect that the same person, or the same small group of professionals, should manage the whole of her pregnancy. She should be fully informed of the options at all times, and have the right to take possession of her own case-notes. The simple idea is that most confinem ents are straightforward, and thus capable of being brought to a happy concl usion at home or by the woman's personal midwife admitted (heavens]) to hosp ital with her. There have been tragedies in non-hospital births, but the sam e applies to births within high-tech maternity units. The report questions t he assumption that 'experienced personnel are already readily available with in a general hospital'. You might think that the consultants would embrace i t enthusiastically, since releasing non-complicated births to the midwives w ould leave them more time in which to concentrate on the awkward cases. Not so. The Royal College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists says that it is 'gen uinely concerned' that some of the proposals in the Cumberlege report 'may e ndanger the wellbeing of women and their babies'. It insists that 'review of every pregnancy by a medically qualified person is essential' - surely righ t - but insists that 'the doctor best qualified to conduct that review is th e obstetrician'. Probably. Have they seen the dingy queues, sat for the long hours, waiting for a few moments with a consultant? As to home confinements , 'the college's view is that this is not a safe alternative to delivery in properly equipped surroundings'. So far as my lay mind can discover, that vi ew is strongly disputed, although you have to believe in last-minute ambulan ce rides for cases that go life-threateningly wrong. There is one necessary caveat. Nobody, so far as I can tell, has produced a profit and loss table. In-hospital confinements, particularly when operations ensue, sound more exp ensive than outpatient work by lowly paid midwives. Mrs Bottomley is still m ulling the Cumberlege report. Under pressure from the obstetricians, she rel eased it as a discussion document, without fully endorsing it. If she decide s to accept it, she should accompany the good news with figures to show that the best possible midwifery service is to be created, and that the exercise is not motivated by cost-cutting alone. That little matter aside, the gover nment would be wise to brave the wrath of the Royal College. Some women may prefer caesareans; some may long for natural births. Many will want their co nfinements to be in hospital, under an obstetrician's care; others will be m ore comfortable at home with a midwife. All should be given the necessary me dical guidance with which to make an informed choice. What could be more 199 0s Conservative than that? Countries:- GBZ United Ki ngdom, EC. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. P806 Hospitals. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 16 ============= Transaction # 143 ============================================== Transaction #: 143 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:44:59 Selec. Rec. #: 15 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-10025 _AN-CEEBIAAJFT 920 505 FT 05 MAY 92 / Survey of Hong Kong (3): Plans for a another miracle - Inflation is a side-effect of the structural changes in th e economy By SIMON DAVIES HONG KONG 'S role as service centre for and gateway to China should ensure continued p rosperity in the face of its rapidly diminishing manufacturing sector. But i n the longer term, its consistently high inflation may become a serious conc ern. Inflation is an inevitable side-effect of the structural changes taking place in the economy. The traditional manufacturing sector has rapidly move d to take the benefits of cheaper land and labour across the border in Guang dong, creating a greater demand for workers in the more labour-intensive ser vice sector. Demand for labour has been further enhanced by Hong Kong's role as regional hub and springboard for investment into China. This has all tak en place against a backdrop of almost full employment, high emigration and o ne of the lowest birth rates in the world. A fall in the Hong Kong inflation rate from its April 1991 peak of 13.9 per cent to an estimated 1992 average of 9.8 per cent might suggest there is already a downward trend. But out of the forecast 2.5 per cent decrease in inflation in 1992, 2 per cent is dire ctly attributable to increased indirect taxes introduced in 1991. The figure s are therefore artificial and businessmen are beginning to accept that doub le-digit inflation will become a matter of course in the lead up to 1997. Th e handing out of some HKDollars 20bn worth of contracts for the new airport in the first six months of 1992, combined with an economic upswing in the se cond half of the year, will put further pressure on prices. Inflation is the main negative point in an otherwise optimistic economic scenario. The phase of low growth and high inflation that followed the disastrous consequences of Tiananmen Square and the Chinese austerity measures of early 1989 are bei ng replaced by a sharp trade-led economic upswing. Growth in Hong Kong's gro ss domestic product (GDP) slowed to 3 per cent in 1990, hit by the effects o f the Gulf crisis, but the China factor enabled it to accelerate by a health ier 4 per cent last year. A number of economists expect it could rise to 6 p er cent this year, compared with a government forecast of 5 per cent; while corporate earnings growth for the 33 Hang Seng Index constituent companies i s expected to exceed 20 per cent this year. The increase in foreign investme nt in southern China has encouraged a significant boom in its highly competi tive export industries; these products have been processed through Hong Kong and its deep water port, resulting in a substantial increase in the level o f re-exports. The demand for services in Hong Kong has also reflected develo pments in China, as the colony has acted as the stepping off point for inter national investors. A recent survey indicated there were 880 regional repres entative offices in Hong Kong, with 26 regional headquarters set up in the f irst five months of 1991. Finally, there has been a substantial pick-up in t ourist arrivals, following the downturn that accompanied the invasion of Kuw ait. Against these factors, the inflation rate might seem a minor irritant. Some economists even argue that the differential between inflation and inter est rates, is beneficial, since it has encouraged greater capital expenditur e. There have been sizeable negative effective interest rates and so far ass et inflation has been focused only on specific areas such as residential pro perty. Unlike the manufacturing sector, services compete on more than price and Hong Kong has in its favour the China factor. But in the long term, Hong Kong could see multinational companies relocating to other regional centres ; while tourism is strongly linked to the cost of services. Inflation theref ore remains a very real concern. With the evolution of Hong Kong's economy f rom manufacturing to services, concern over the competitive position of the territory's export sector becomes less important. In 1991, total domestic ex ports increased by 2.3 per cent to HKDollars 231.04bn; re-exports jumped 29. 2 per cent to HKDollars 534.84bn. This underlines the speed with which the e conomy has relocated basic labour intensive manufacturing to the Pearl River delta, instead concentrating on servicing those displaced industries. The m anufacturing sector accounted for 31 per cent of the territory's GDP in 1970 . By 1990, this had fallen to 16.7 per cent, although there has been a subst antial increase in capital spending in industry, to maintain productivity ag ainst rising labour costs. The trend away from manufacturing is continuing, with re-exports accounting for almost 74 per cent of total exports in Februa ry. Southern China has been the fastest growing economy in the world over th e past decade and as service centre for this region, Hong Kong's demand for labour can only increase. The government made a feeble attempt to influence inflation through interest rates in May 1991, when it bucked the US trend by raising Hong Kong interest rates by 1 per cent. The result was to create th e widest margin between the Hong Kong and US dollar in the eight-year histor y of the pegged exchange rate. Interest rates had to be brought down after f ive weeks. The government claimed the exercise was a success, but economists pointed out the increase in the money supply resulting from interest rate i nduced capital inflows, may have offset any minor improvement. Since interes t rates have subsequently been discounted as a realistic tool in the battle against inflation, increasing the supply of labour has to be the most obviou s choice, given the number of lesser-paid workers across the border. But thi s is rather more politically sensitive, since it raises concerns from the tr ade unions over the impact of labour imports on local wage rates. The Busine ss and Professionals Federation of Hong Kong commissioned a study on local i nflation late last year and concluded 'high inflation threatens Hong Kong's economic success and has socially divisive effects on income distribution'. The report claims labour importation, combined with fiscal discipline and a sensible policy on property inflation, would help address the root of this p roblem. The government has reacted positively. In January, it increased the number of foreign workers that can be imported, from 13,000 to 25,000. This should have a substantial impact on wage inflation. The Financi al Times London Page 28 ============= Transaction # 144 ============================================== Transaction #: 144 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:45:11 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-1590 _AN-CLQCFAC7FT 9212 17 FT 17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig ht By DAVID GOODHART In the run-up to next year's single European market, many of the continent's biggest emplo yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British Petroleum and Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will today unveil fig ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in November. Unemployme nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere in the indu strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way back into the limelight. Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo yment rates could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t he UK, the EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J apan and non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r ates down to their levels. One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs went to the registered unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal l in the EC's unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8. 4 per cent at the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par t-timers and 70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European Commission officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come on to the jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they are scarce. Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor kforce, a static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor tage of workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu ry. Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent, req uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch up with the rest of the industrialised world. But the medium-term prospects ar e not good. Industrialists point out that, on top of the unemployment arisin g from slower growth, is the extra loss of jobs that will arise because of t he single market. Companies' profit margins in the new competitive environme nt are coming under pressure so they are cutting overheads in the form of jo bs. The combined result is that for the past year unemployment has been risi ng in almost all countries, with the exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi de unemployment is now edging back up towards 10 per cent - about 16m people . The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and fi re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and ac counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the year to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to propel the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent later in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996. The total sho uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward trend, which began with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave joblessness at the end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the 1960s. The Commission e stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000 merely to cut the unemploy ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough economic convergence criteria o f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly rule out. EC labour markets we re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was only in the early 1 980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but academics and policym akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation for what has gone wron g over the past 20 years. Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor mance at the London School of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe an unemployment thus: 'The reader may feel that we are not much further on i n understanding the causes of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are plenty of plausible suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d efinite proof.' The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo r 20 years, although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the young and the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c urrent wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is no surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent. There remain large differences between countries within the EC - particular ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley, head of e mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike the United States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low participati on rates and a large black market.' EC unemployment can be divided into thre e groups: the high-unemployment countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un employment countries (the UK, Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a nd the low-unemployment countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a nd Luxembourg). In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo yment has remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the UK have ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio of Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa rd trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start ing to shed jobs rapidly. Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te nd to have lower participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, and higher self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st ems from its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules for employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi s. Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low p roductivity. There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une mployment in Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet ter-paid jobs in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t he EC's poor employment performance which would help policymakers bring the rate down to the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E C Europe. The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries (see chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has been below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit h the US and non-EC Europe. Neither, as the UK government believes, can the failure be attributed to the over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's own laisser-faire hire and fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h ighest unemployment in the EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma rkets, the Netherlands and west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R elated arguments about high unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis proved by the Nordic countries, which have both, as well as historically low unemployment. So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union influence pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert Lindley, of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi ck, believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing full -time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the professions, to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has merely made 'a lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount of work into smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers in part-time employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade and one-fifth o f UK employment is now part-time. The dominance of the insiders also helps e xplain the failure of EC wage rates to respond first to the external shocks of the 1970s oil price rises and then to the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Japanese workers took a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at least for the past 10 years, US workers have had static real wages. By cont rast the EC saw a significant increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai n, for example, they rose by 39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent. One re ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the high in cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to function a s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed make up ab out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per cent in the U S and 18 per cent in Japan. The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour market to accommodate the longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. EC employers are fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow, increasing the number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic h are often insecure and low-paid. To overcome the mismatch between the skil ls and aptitudes of the long-term unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing ly on offer, the unemployed will have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley says governments must help them by adjusting their social security and taxat ion systems to encourage the outsiders back into the labour market, making i t easier for people to combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s hould also spend less on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds of the 2.25 per cent of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed - and more on retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures . Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would be unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce st rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC country , fewer than the number 10 years ago. There are, however, two grounds for op timism about EC unemployment. First, thanks to lower productivity and the gr owth of labour-intensive services, it now requires EC growth of only about 1 .5 per cent to create jobs, compared with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco nd, a growing number of politicians in the EC are starting to focus on high unemployment as a structural, not just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say s: 'It's not much, but at least it's a start.' The Financial Ti mes London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 145 ============================================== Transaction #: 145 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:45:29 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-1590 _AN-CLQCFAC7FT 9212 17 FT 17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig ht By DAVID GOODHART In the run-up to next year's single European market, many of the continent's biggest emplo yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British Petroleum and Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will today unveil fig ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in November. Unemployme nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere in the indu strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way back into the limelight. Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo yment rates could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t he UK, the EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J apan and non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r ates down to their levels. One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs went to the registered unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal l in the EC's unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8. 4 per cent at the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par t-timers and 70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European Commission officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come on to the jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they are scarce. Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor kforce, a static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor tage of workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu ry. Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent, req uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch up with the rest of the industrialised world. But the medium-term prospects ar e not good. Industrialists point out that, on top of the unemployment arisin g from slower growth, is the extra loss of jobs that will arise because of t he single market. Companies' profit margins in the new competitive environme nt are coming under pressure so they are cutting overheads in the form of jo bs. The combined result is that for the past year unemployment has been risi ng in almost all countries, with the exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi de unemployment is now edging back up towards 10 per cent - about 16m people . The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and fi re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and ac counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the year to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to propel the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent later in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996. The total sho uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward trend, which began with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave joblessness at the end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the 1960s. The Commission e stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000 merely to cut the unemploy ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough economic convergence criteria o f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly rule out. EC labour markets we re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was only in the early 1 980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but academics and policym akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation for what has gone wron g over the past 20 years. Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor mance at the London School of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe an unemployment thus: 'The reader may feel that we are not much further on i n understanding the causes of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are plenty of plausible suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d efinite proof.' The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo r 20 years, although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the young and the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c urrent wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is no surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent. There remain large differences between countries within the EC - particular ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley, head of e mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike the United States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low participati on rates and a large black market.' EC unemployment can be divided into thre e groups: the high-unemployment countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un employment countries (the UK, Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a nd the low-unemployment countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a nd Luxembourg). In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo yment has remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the UK have ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio of Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa rd trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start ing to shed jobs rapidly. Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te nd to have lower participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, and higher self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st ems from its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules for employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi s. Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low p roductivity. There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une mployment in Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet ter-paid jobs in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t he EC's poor employment performance which would help policymakers bring the rate down to the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E C Europe. The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries (see chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has been below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit h the US and non-EC Europe. Neither, as the UK government believes, can the failure be attributed to the over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's own laisser-faire hire and fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h ighest unemployment in the EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma rkets, the Netherlands and west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R elated arguments about high unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis proved by the Nordic countries, which have both, as well as historically low unemployment. So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union influence pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert Lindley, of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi ck, believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing full -time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the professions, to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has merely made 'a lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount of work into smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers in part-time employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade and one-fifth o f UK employment is now part-time. The dominance of the insiders also helps e xplain the failure of EC wage rates to respond first to the external shocks of the 1970s oil price rises and then to the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Japanese workers took a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at least for the past 10 years, US workers have had static real wages. By cont rast the EC saw a significant increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai n, for example, they rose by 39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent. One re ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the high in cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to function a s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed make up ab out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per cent in the U S and 18 per cent in Japan. The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour market to accommodate the longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. EC employers are fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow, increasing the number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic h are often insecure and low-paid. To overcome the mismatch between the skil ls and aptitudes of the long-term unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing ly on offer, the unemployed will have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley says governments must help them by adjusting their social security and taxat ion systems to encourage the outsiders back into the labour market, making i t easier for people to combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s hould also spend less on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds of the 2.25 per cent of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed - and more on retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures . Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would be unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce st rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC country , fewer than the number 10 years ago. There are, however, two grounds for op timism about EC unemployment. First, thanks to lower productivity and the gr owth of labour-intensive services, it now requires EC growth of only about 1 .5 per cent to create jobs, compared with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco nd, a growing number of politicians in the EC are starting to focus on high unemployment as a structural, not just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say s: 'It's not much, but at least it's a start.' The Financial Ti mes London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 146 ============================================== Transaction #: 146 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:45:30 Selec. Rec. #: 16 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-1590 _AN-CLQCFAC7FT 9212 17 FT 17 DEC 92 / Europe isn't working: As the single ma rket approaches, rising unemployment has pushed inflation out of the limelig ht By DAVID GOODHART In the run-up to next year's single European market, many of the continent's biggest emplo yers are shedding tens of thousands of employees. IBM, British Petroleum and Ford joined the list this week, and the UK government will today unveil fig ures showing more than 30,000 joined the dole queues in November. Unemployme nt in the European Community, consistently higher than elsewhere in the indu strial world and rising rapidly again, is rudely elbowing its way back into the limelight. Between 1985 and 1991 it was tempting to believe that unemplo yment rates could return to the low single figures of the 1960s as, led by t he UK, the EC created 11.4m jobs. That performance was better than the US, J apan and non-EC Europe, but still not good enough to bring EC unemployment r ates down to their levels. One reason is that only a third of the 11.4m jobs went to the registered unemployed, resulting in a disappointingly small fal l in the EC's unemployment rate, from 10.9 per cent at the end of 1985 to 8. 4 per cent at the end of 1990. About 30 per cent of the new jobs went to par t-timers and 70 per cent to women. Many of the women, according to European Commission officials, now form a reserve army of the semi-employed who come on to the jobs market when jobs are plentiful and disappear again when they are scarce. Thanks to the rising level of female participation in the EC wor kforce, a static, or slightly falling, EC birth rate will not lead to a shor tage of workers or the disappearance of unemployment by the end of the centu ry. Indeed, the Commission expects the labour force to grow 15 per cent, req uiring 25m jobs, by 2010, largely because female participation will catch up with the rest of the industrialised world. But the medium-term prospects ar e not good. Industrialists point out that, on top of the unemployment arisin g from slower growth, is the extra loss of jobs that will arise because of t he single market. Companies' profit margins in the new competitive environme nt are coming under pressure so they are cutting overheads in the form of jo bs. The combined result is that for the past year unemployment has been risi ng in almost all countries, with the exception of the Netherlands, and EC-wi de unemployment is now edging back up towards 10 per cent - about 16m people . The UK, where labour-market deregulation has made it easier to hire and fi re, is the leader in the loss of jobs just as it was in job creation, and ac counted for almost 50 per cent of the increase in EC joblessness in the year to August 1992. The continuing rapid increase in the UK will help to propel the EC-wide unemployment rate to a new peak of more than 11 per cent later in 1993, where the Commission expects it to remain until 1996. The total sho uld fall after that, but the continuing underlying upward trend, which began with the first oil shock of the early 1970s, will leave joblessness at the end of the 1990s six times higher than it was in the 1960s. The Commission e stimates that 10m new jobs will be needed by 2000 merely to cut the unemploy ment rate to 7 per cent, something the tough economic convergence criteria o f the Maastricht treaty will almost certainly rule out. EC labour markets we re not always such international laggards. Indeed it was only in the early 1 980s that EC unemployment overtook that of the US, but academics and policym akers seem at a loss to find a convincing explanation for what has gone wron g over the past 20 years. Mr Charles Bean, of the Centre for Economic Perfor mance at the London School of Economics, concluded a recent survey of Europe an unemployment thus: 'The reader may feel that we are not much further on i n understanding the causes of high unemployment than 10 years ago. There are plenty of plausible suspects, quite a few smoking guns, but little really d efinite proof.' The basic pattern of EC unemployment has remained similar fo r 20 years, although the problem is now spreading beyond the unskilled, the young and the old to affect better-qualified, middle-aged workers. But the c urrent wave differs in one important respect from the early 1980s - there is no surge in youth unemployment, which accounted for 45 per cent of total EC unemployment in the early 1980s and now accounts for less than 30 per cent. There remain large differences between countries within the EC - particular ly between northern and southern member states. As Mr John Morley, head of e mployment policy at the European Commission, points out: 'Unlike the United States we do have some very undeveloped parts of the EC with low participati on rates and a large black market.' EC unemployment can be divided into thre e groups: the high-unemployment countries (Ireland and Spain); the medium-un employment countries (the UK, Italy, France, Denmark, Belgium and Greece); a nd the low-unemployment countries (the Netherlands, west Germany, Portugal a nd Luxembourg). In some countries, such as France, Italy and Greece, unemplo yment has remained relatively static for almost a decade; others such as the UK have ridden the rollercoaster up, down and now up again. A virtuous trio of Portugal, the Netherlands and west Germany have seen a consistent downwa rd trend since 1985, although Germany, following reunification, is now start ing to shed jobs rapidly. Southern states such as Spain, Greece and Italy te nd to have lower participation rates, higher youth and female unemployment, and higher self-employment rates. But Spain's very high unemployment rate st ems from its slow growth between 1975 and 1985; inflexible employment rules for employers plus capital-intensive investment have done little to dent thi s. Portugal, on the other hand, enjoys low unemployment because it has low p roductivity. There are other regional differences, such as high graduate une mployment in Spain and Greece which results from people queueing for the bet ter-paid jobs in the public sector. But there is no single explanation for t he EC's poor employment performance which would help policymakers bring the rate down to the low single figures that prevails in Japan, the US and non-E C Europe. The EC's failures compared with other leading industrial countries (see chart) cannot simply be attributed to slower growth. Though growth has been below Japanese levels since the early 1970s it has been comparable wit h the US and non-EC Europe. Neither, as the UK government believes, can the failure be attributed to the over-regulation of EC labour markets. Britain's own laisser-faire hire and fire system is hardly a model - with the third-h ighest unemployment in the EC - while two of the most regulated EC labour ma rkets, the Netherlands and west Germany, have relatively low unemployment. R elated arguments about high unionisation or generous benefit systems are dis proved by the Nordic countries, which have both, as well as historically low unemployment. So was labour market deregulation and the reduction in union influence pursued by some EC countries in the 1980s misconceived? Mr Robert Lindley, of the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwi ck, believes that the strategy hit the wrong target. Instead of forcing full -time, well-paid 'insiders', from skilled manual workers to the professions, to share out some of their job security and high pay, it has merely made 'a lready weak workers even weaker and divided up the same amount of work into smaller, part-time, parcels'. The percentage of French workers in part-time employment has increased by 50 per cent over the past decade and one-fifth o f UK employment is now part-time. The dominance of the insiders also helps e xplain the failure of EC wage rates to respond first to the external shocks of the 1970s oil price rises and then to the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Japanese workers took a sharp drop in real wages in the 1970s and, at least for the past 10 years, US workers have had static real wages. By cont rast the EC saw a significant increase in real wages in the 1980s. In Britai n, for example, they rose by 39 per cent and in Italy by 31 per cent. One re ason that the insiders have remained so well-placed in the EC is the high in cidence of people out of work for more than one year who cease to function a s an effective pressure on the employed. The long-term unemployed make up ab out 50 per cent of the EC unemployed, compared with only 6 per cent in the U S and 18 per cent in Japan. The Commission wants a more 'integrated' labour market to accommodate the longer-term unemployed but is unlikely to get it. EC employers are fragmenting the labour market and, where regulations allow, increasing the number of part-time, or temporary, service-sector jobs, whic h are often insecure and low-paid. To overcome the mismatch between the skil ls and aptitudes of the long-term unemployed and the sort of jobs increasing ly on offer, the unemployed will have to adapt to the job market. Mr Morley says governments must help them by adjusting their social security and taxat ion systems to encourage the outsiders back into the labour market, making i t easier for people to combine two part-time jobs for example. Governments s hould also spend less on 'passive' benefits - currently more than two-thirds of the 2.25 per cent of EC gross domestic product spent on the unemployed - and more on retraining, counselling and other active labour market measures . Such reforms could take years to yield benefits. In the meantime it would be unrealistic to expect greater labour mobility in the EC to help reduce st rains - only 2m EC citizens currently work permanently in another EC country , fewer than the number 10 years ago. There are, however, two grounds for op timism about EC unemployment. First, thanks to lower productivity and the gr owth of labour-intensive services, it now requires EC growth of only about 1 .5 per cent to create jobs, compared with 3 to 4 per cent 10 years ago. Seco nd, a growing number of politicians in the EC are starting to focus on high unemployment as a structural, not just a cyclical, problem. As Mr Morley say s: 'It's not much, but at least it's a start.' The Financial Ti mes London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 147 ============================================== Transaction #: 147 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:46:02 Selec. Rec. #: 17 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5793 _AN-EICAFABGFT 9409 02 FT 02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni ng By PAUL ADAMS LAGOS In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow th, Nigeria at 90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa. Until 1988 , when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a national population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled tag as t he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they regarded high population growth as healthy and saw little point in controlling the r ate of growth. Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti ng it among the 10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused a surprise: Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat ed numbers by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol itical clout and revenue allocation. The United Nations Population Fund has projected the average population growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe r cent (which would double the population in about 30 years) with the birth rate at 45 per 1,000 persons and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in fant mortality rate of 96). The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child ren per woman, while the national policy set a target of only four. Since th e 1970s the urban population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t he rate of growth in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent. Generalising about Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very diverse cultures, is often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to education and the rol e of women. In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are far higher than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio n of birth control is not widely accepted. In the south-east there is a high percentage of Catholics especially among the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin e in social services during the 1990s has halted the progress towards family planning clinics and universal primary education, especially in the north, bolstering the influence of the Koranic schools. Even nationally, the UN pai nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in Nigeria has improved little ove r the last decade. In general, they are considered second-class citizens not by law but because of the social and cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19 93 review of the national programme. The literacy rate for women was 31 per cent (54 per cent for men) and more than half of all Nigerian women were mar ried at the age of 15. The problem of education lies not just with women. As a prominent women's group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f our children per woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that figure. If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out look for economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t he 1970s, the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the level of 1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i ncome to a level three times that of Nigeria. In January's budget speech the finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented on three years of political unc ertainty, capital flight government over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt her decline in GDP growth rate from 4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in 1993. A comparison with the average growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d emonstrates the enormity of the task involved in resuscitating the economy i n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr Kalu. Since then strikes, shortages and a d earth of foreign exchange have taken the economy further down hill. Nigeria accounts for about half of West Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on ce poured into Nigeria for a better life, the chances of reverse migration l ook more likely. Countries:- NGZ Nigeria, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra ms. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financia l Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 148 ============================================== Transaction #: 148 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:47:20 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 149 ============================================== Transaction #: 149 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:48:19 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 150 ============================================== Transaction #: 150 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:48:20 Selec. Rec. #: 18 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-8321 _AN-EHRD3AAZFT 9408 18 FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug h By BRONWEN MADDOX The UN's popula tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in the past 40 years , even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen Maddox reports. In Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to abou t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including northern A frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even in develop ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period. These patt erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a link between low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex picture. So me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in fertility rat es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably Pakistan and Mi ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family sizes despite relatively high levels of economic prosperity. The UNFPA draws a close conne ction between low fertility rates and the availability of contraception, eve n where gross domestic product per head has not risen greatly. It attributes roughly half of the fall in worldwide fertility rates to improved distribut ion of contraceptives. The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi nation of parents to have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava ilable. Even the poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c an spend more on each child if they have fewer children. Demographers have l ong agreed that improving women's education plays an important part in reduc ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that newer pressures are also p roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to towns from the countrysid e they tend to delay having children and to have fewer. Anecdotal evidence f rom west African countries also suggests that looming land shortages are cur bing the size of rural families. These new factors may be helping to push do wn fertility rates even in Africa and central America, the regions which hav e persistently had the highest rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si nce the first half of the 1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from 6.7 to 5.9 children per woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro m 4.8 to 4.1. Countries:- XOZ Asia. XCZ Latin A merica. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administrati on of Public Health Programs. Types:- STATS Statistics . The Financial Times London Page 3 ============= Transaction # 151 ============================================== Transaction #: 151 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:48:26 Selec. Rec. #: 19 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT934-12742 _AN-DJYCQAE3FT 931 025 FT 25 OCT 93 / Survey of Germany (10): A story of bi rths, deaths and marriages - The population is getting steadily older. The i mplications must be faced now By ANDREW GOWERS 'THE Germans are dying out'. Back in the early 1980s, the slogan was popularised by novelist Gunter Grass in the subtitle of his short story Kopfgeburten. Ten years on, the prospect of a shrinking and ageing populati on is moving closer to reality - and is beginning to become a central preocc upation for Germany's chattering classes. All over the land, people are marr ying later, having fewer children and living longer, with the result that th e number of Germans has already been declining for some time, to a current 7 2m out of a total population of 80m. Within another decade, however, it is c ertain that Germany's overall population will embark on a steepening decline . Suddenly, the experts fear, Germany will face a structural crisis with whi ch it is ill- equipped to cope, as a shrinking working population bears the burden of an increasing number of old-age pensioners and as Germans themselv es come to terms with the proportional increase of foreigners in their midst . The far-reaching consequences could affect every aspect of the way the cou ntry organises its political, economic, social and external affairs. 'It is like having termites in your house,' says Meinhard Miegel, co-author with St efanie Wahl of a study of the demographic problem just published by the Bonn -based Institut fur Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft*. 'On the surface everything looks fine, but all of a sudden it collapses. This house looks sound at the moment and will continue to do so for some time to come. Then, in the early part of the 21st century we will face a crisis.' Mr Miegel uses colourful m etaphors for effect. In a sense, the challenge confronting Germany is the sa me as that faced by most of the developed world. In all the leading industri al countries, pressures on the welfare state are growing as a result of fall ing birth rates, longer life- spans and increasing immigration. But Germany' s problem is still more acute than that of its European neighbours and its A merican and Japanese trading partners, for several reasons. First, it is fur ther ahead in the population cycle: the number of Germans started to decline 20 years ago, while most European nations were still in a phase of gentle g rowth; as a result, Germany already has a proportionately higher elderly pop ulation. Second, although the problem has been disguised up to now by waves of immigration in the 1960s and late 1980s, that in itself has created diffi culties thanks to Germany's failure to integrate most of the new inhabitants into its society. Such difficulties can only proliferate in the years ahead . Third, Germany's history in this century has seen to it that population de cline in the early decades of the next will seem especially acute. In the Na zi years, there was a sudden surge in the birth rate as Germans were told it was part of their patriotic duty to procreate. The offspring of that baby b oom are now getting on in years and in another decade will be starting to di e off in significant numbers. The numbers can be stated with almost predesti ned precision, for they reflect a secular trend of falling birth rates and d iminishing family sizes dating back (with the notable exception of the Hitle r years) to the early 1900s (see chart). By the early 1970s, the generation of German children was less numerous than that of their grandparents and the number of deaths overtook that of births. Since then the margin has widened : at the turn of the century, Mr Miegel estimates, deaths will exceed births by 300,000 a year, rising by 2030 to a staggering 600,000 - equivalent to e liminating the city of Frankfurt every year. Between now and 2030, the numbe r of Germans will decline by about 15m -not far short of the current popula tion of eastern Germany. This is not a trend, say Mr Miegel and Ms Wahl, tha t can be reversed through some governmental magic wand. The individualistic Germans of today are not going to be persuaded to breed either through dikta t or economic incentive. Even in eastern Germany - whose apparently more you thful population results mainly from a higher death rate under communism tha nks to poor health care and difficult working and living conditions - the bi rth rate has plunged since unification. Nor does increasing immigration repr esent much of a solution. True, the arrival over the last three years of som e 3.2m new inhabitants - including asylum seekers and 1.4m 'Aussiedler' of G erman origin, mainly from the former Soviet empire - has served to compensat e for the declining number of Germans. But that is unlikely to continue. Ger many has now tightened up its asylum laws, and in any case is having severe difficulties integrating the newcomers, many of whom end up on the unemploym ent registers or outside the formal labour market. Simply to make up for the continuing fall in the German population, the country would have to take 1. 5m immigrants in the 1990s and 13.8m more between 2001 and 2030. It is incon ceivable that German society, or the country's political system, could handl e an influx of this magnitude. One consequence of all this is an already per ceptible 'greying' of Germany. Today, one fifth of the population is 20 or y ounger and another fifth 60 or over. In 2000, the under-20s will still repre sent a fifth but the over-60s will have reached a quarter of the total; by 2 030, only 16 per cent will be under 20, 46 per cent will be between 20 and 6 0, and 38 per cent over 60. In short, within less than 30 years, a diminishi ng population of working age will have to carry a roughly equal, and rising, number of people either too young or too old to work - at least under curr ent laws. The effects will be felt in every corner of society. School and un iversity rolls will fall; the shrinkage in the population between 20 and 60 will dictate changes in government policies towards the labour market; the c ountry's infrastructure needs will alter. Above all, the shifting shape of t he population will entail significant structural changes in the economy, and in particular in the role of the state. The most obvious burden will be on Germany's social welfare system. A rising number of over-60s - and indeed, t hanks to medical science, of over-80s - spells increased spending on health care, pensions and old people's care. Nobody seriously believes that Germany will be able to afford this without a substantial restructuring of the welf are state, involving some increase in private-sector provision. The economy will undergo other - subtler but no less significant - changes. Property val ues could fall as elderly people sell off assets to fund their service needs ; the manufacturing sector will diminish in relation to services; capital fo r infrastructure projects will tend be raised on a shorter term basis. Mr Mi egel and Ms Wahl even suggest that Germany's population shrinkage will over time serve to reduce its economic might: 'In two generations, Germany might under realistic assumptions only be a medium-sized European power. Its popul ation may not be, as today, the second largest in Europe after Russia's, but perhaps the fourth or fifth largest after Russia, Ukraine and possibly also France and Britain ..And its population will be among the oldest in Europe and the world.' What, then, is to be done? There are no easy answers. Ideall y, says the study, Germany would - while coming to terms with a some measure of shrinkage in its population - seek to offset it by adopting sensible pol icies on immigration and on the integration of foreigners, for example by al lowing a greater number to become German citizens. Unfortunately, nothing li ke this is remotely on the cards. The word Bevolkerungspolitik (population p olicy) acquired an ugly ring in German politics as a result of its abuse dur ing the Nazi period, and the current generation of politicians tends to rega rd these issues as too hot to handle. Nevertheless, they will not simply go away. If Germany does not start sensibly to debate the structural questions raised by its shrinking population soon, then it will find itself grappling with them in a much more polarised political climate 10 years from now. *Das Ende des Individualismus: die Kultur des Westens zerstort sich selbst; Verl ag Bonn Aktuell; September 1993 Countries:- DEZ Germ any, EC. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public He alth Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page V ============= Transaction # 152 ============================================== Transaction #: 152 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:48:51 Selec. Rec. #: 20 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT922-2782 _AN-CFOA5ADZFT 9206 15 FT 15 JUN 92 / Personal View: The economic costs of I reland saying 'no' By GARRET FITZGERALD On Thursday, the Irish people go to the polls to decide whether to rati fy the Maastricht Treaty. Although in earlier Irish referenda on European Co mmunity membership and on the Single European Act, pro-EC majorities of 83 p er cent and 70 per cent respectively were recorded, the result this time is far from certain. As in Denmark, a certain popular negativism towards politi cs and politicians is working against ratification. In addition, many are fr ustrated at being asked to vote on something they feel they do not understan d, and are liable to decide that, when in doubt, they should say 'no'. There are also fears about an erosion of cherished neutrality. In addition, the i ntroduction by Mr Charles Haughey, the former taoiseach, of a protocol on ab ortion into the treaty has provoked a hostile reaction to ratification from both sides in the controversy over abortion and the rights to travel and inf ormation. It is impossible to say at this stage how heavily these emotional factors will weigh against the immense economic benefits EC membership has b rought to Ireland, and the prospect of lower interest rates that European ec onomic and monetary union is expected to bring in its train. Unhappily the r eferendum issue has eclipsed a recent report on the Irish economy by the Eco nomic and Social Research Institute which is relevant to the economic issues raised by the Maastricht Treaty. This report is the first to give a conside red reaction to the longer-term economic implications of startling improveme nts in the Irish balance of payments estimates revealed earlier this year. T hese revisions effectively doubled previous forecasts of the 1991 Irish exte rnal payments surplus and have positive implications for the future prospect s of the economy - which were already bright, even before this new data beca me available. Last year's Irish current external surplus is now placed at 4. 5-5 per cent of gross national product - almost twice the Japanese figure. F or the current year the institute forecast a rise in the external surplus to almost 7 per cent. It bases this on what it describes as a 'cautious' forec ast of a 10 per cent rise in the volume of exports - a description justified by the export returns for the early months of this year. This performance r eflects the remarkable improvement in competitiveness that has taken place d uring the past 10 years as a result of the incomes policies pursued by succe ssive Irish governments. Because of these policies, industrial pay rates hav e risen more slowly in every year since 1986 than is the case for the group of countries with which Ireland mainly trades: the UK, the US, France, Germa ny, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands. According to the central bank, this favourable pay trend, together with productivity increases, has reduced Iris h unit wage costs relative to those of these trading partners by no less tha n 30 per cent during the past decade. The result has been a radical improvem ent in the balance of payments - from a disastrous 1981 deficit of almost 15 per cent of GNP to the now-forecast 1992 surplus of almost 7 per cent. With an external surplus running ahead of any other EC country and well over dou ble that forecast for Japan, the Irish economy is now remarkably well-placed for a sustained high rate of growth. Even in the present year, when high in terest rates in Europe are holding back economic expansion, the Irish growth rate is forecast at 3.25 per cent - higher than anywhere else in the Organi sation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Were it not for some unwis e handling of recent budgets, which has left the government with too little room to stimulate growth by means of tax cuts, an even higher rate of growth could currently be achieved. In the institute's view, what is now holding b ack even more rapid growth is simply 'unduly pessimistic assessments of Iris h economic prospects' and a 'misguided perception' in Ireland that 'economic prospects (are) significantly higher' in the UK and US. This has led to per verse capital outflows, the reversal of which, the institute philosophically concludes, must await the persuasive effect of 'allowing the facts to chang e the general perception within the financial community of Ireland's relativ e economic prospects'. In Ireland itself, however, there is as yet little pu blic recognition of these growth possibilities. Consequently, the Maastricht referendum is taking place in an unreal atmosphere of national pessimism in duced by the present record level of unemployment. This high unemployment is not primarily a function of Irish economic performance but rather a consequ ence of past demographic forces - the fact that the traditionally high Irish birth rate started to fall much later than in the rest of Europe, its recen t one-third decline dating back only to 1980 - and of the UK recession, whic h has reversed the traditional flow of Irish emigration across the Irish Sea . There is in consequence no recognition by Irish public opinion of the scal e of the growth that could be released by lower interest rates as and when G ermany eventually gets its affairs into order - or of the correlative danger , that a 'no' vote might have the effect of reversing the recent steady down ward movement in these rates. For if the well-placed Irish economy has a vul nerable spot, it is in the extent of its dependence in recent years on non-r esident subscriptions to its domestic government borrowing. German instituti ons have been happy in recent years to secure a somewhat higher rate of retu rn from Irish government stock than they could achieve at home and have been encouraged to do so by the strength of the Irish pound, which for more than five years has without strain kept within 1 per cent of its central rate vi s-a-vis the D-Mark. A 'no' vote on Thursday might disturb this confidence, e specially as German opinion, conscious of the strength of the Irish pound, m ay not be quite as well informed about the unusual growth prospects of the e conomy - Ireland's best-kept secret of recent times. However, public opinion polls taken last week suggested a two-to-one majority in favour of the trea ty among those who had made up their minds - with, however, up to one-third of those polled still undecided. Since then, the leaders of the four main po litical parties have issued a strongly worded and comprehensive joint call f or a 'yes' vote, which also has the support of the trade unions, employers' and farmers' organisations. Fears of a 'no' vote have been somewhat allayed by these developments, although memories of the late swing which in 1986 con verted a prospective majority for divorce into a negative decision continue to haunt the political establishment. The author is the former Irish prime m inister. The Financial Times London Page 17 ============= Transaction # 153 ============================================== Transaction #: 153 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:06 Selec. Rec. #: 21 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-13560 _AN-DDVCCAHWFT 930 422 FT 22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann ing programme By EMMA TUCKER In a l arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering of head scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy. 'There is no excuse f or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr El-Mouelhy, who has been runni ng the family planning clinic since 1986. 'Anyone who wants it, can get it.' Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established. A blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a better life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content themselves with two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand Mufti, Egypt's hi ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet entitled 'Birth Plan ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that family planning did not contradict the teachings of Allah. The NPC has an office in every region of the country. Under a programme sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development, Egypt has been flooded with highly subsidised in tra-uterine devices (IUDs). The official figures are impressive. Total birth s per year have dropped from 1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat e has fallen from 39.8 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive prevalence rate - women of child-bearing age using contraception - has rise n from 24.2 per cent at the beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b eginning of this decade. Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th at the total population is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current rates it will take only 30 years for it to double to 114m. The Egyptian Gaz ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the official population sta tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report which put the total popu lation about 2m higher than the official count of 56.434m. In spite of effor ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's heavily burdened resources ar e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent of the population live on 4 p er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo along the Nile is enough to see how crowded the thin strips of green either side of the river have becom e. Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University , says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2 per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He believ es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo and Al exandria continue to present an enormous challenge. Statistics culled from t he rural communities of upper Egypt are significantly less impressive than t hose from the big cities - tradition and lack of resources combine to hinder the progress of the campaign. One aid official pointed out that the proport ion of women of childbearing age using contraception - to over 40 per cent s ince methods of birth control became easily accessible - reflects a demand t hat was already there. 'These are the women who wanted to use contraception but never had access,' he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, and much more investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are reluctant.' Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, Dr Maher Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean that the effort is very stretched. The biggest block to progress in rural ar eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt ies, pregnant for the tenth time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro ud of it; they told Dr El Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping hands. Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o f marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d ay at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular ly in rural areas, who has not already had a child. Girls usually leave scho ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the legal minimum age for mar riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep reproducing until a son has been born. There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor k against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate. Al though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams h ave been preaching against it in local mosques. 'The feminist movement is go ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were the pioneers of the movement i n the Middle East, but now it is going backwards.' While the government is c ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech passes President Hosni M ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem of population growth - t hose in the field feel the government should do more to promote the cause. A bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning in Egypt comes from the government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind, through air time on tel evision and radio. 'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says one aid official. 'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the population council so it can't be as effective as it should be.' He worries that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is artificial, and th at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop back. Although Dr Mah ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he remains outspoken abo ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,' he says. 'The clock is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project by just six months, you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.' Back at the Zeinhom clin ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work there in 1986, she rarely saw a woman seeking contraception after just one child. 'The traditional be lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is still strong here,' s he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out their families, or tak e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a thrill to see women and chi ldren in good health.' Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa . Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr ograms. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. Th e Financial Times London Page VII ============= Transaction # 154 ============================================== Transaction #: 154 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:16 Selec. Rec. #: 21 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-13560 _AN-DDVCCAHWFT 930 422 FT 22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann ing programme By EMMA TUCKER In a l arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering of head scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy. 'There is no excuse f or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr El-Mouelhy, who has been runni ng the family planning clinic since 1986. 'Anyone who wants it, can get it.' Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established. A blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a better life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content themselves with two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand Mufti, Egypt's hi ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet entitled 'Birth Plan ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that family planning did not contradict the teachings of Allah. The NPC has an office in every region of the country. Under a programme sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development, Egypt has been flooded with highly subsidised in tra-uterine devices (IUDs). The official figures are impressive. Total birth s per year have dropped from 1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat e has fallen from 39.8 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive prevalence rate - women of child-bearing age using contraception - has rise n from 24.2 per cent at the beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b eginning of this decade. Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th at the total population is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current rates it will take only 30 years for it to double to 114m. The Egyptian Gaz ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the official population sta tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report which put the total popu lation about 2m higher than the official count of 56.434m. In spite of effor ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's heavily burdened resources ar e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent of the population live on 4 p er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo along the Nile is enough to see how crowded the thin strips of green either side of the river have becom e. Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University , says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2 per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He believ es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo and Al exandria continue to present an enormous challenge. Statistics culled from t he rural communities of upper Egypt are significantly less impressive than t hose from the big cities - tradition and lack of resources combine to hinder the progress of the campaign. One aid official pointed out that the proport ion of women of childbearing age using contraception - to over 40 per cent s ince methods of birth control became easily accessible - reflects a demand t hat was already there. 'These are the women who wanted to use contraception but never had access,' he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, and much more investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are reluctant.' Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, Dr Maher Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean that the effort is very stretched. The biggest block to progress in rural ar eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt ies, pregnant for the tenth time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro ud of it; they told Dr El Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping hands. Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o f marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d ay at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular ly in rural areas, who has not already had a child. Girls usually leave scho ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the legal minimum age for mar riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep reproducing until a son has been born. There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor k against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate. Al though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams h ave been preaching against it in local mosques. 'The feminist movement is go ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were the pioneers of the movement i n the Middle East, but now it is going backwards.' While the government is c ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech passes President Hosni M ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem of population growth - t hose in the field feel the government should do more to promote the cause. A bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning in Egypt comes from the government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind, through air time on tel evision and radio. 'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says one aid official. 'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the population council so it can't be as effective as it should be.' He worries that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is artificial, and th at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop back. Although Dr Mah ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he remains outspoken abo ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,' he says. 'The clock is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project by just six months, you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.' Back at the Zeinhom clin ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work there in 1986, she rarely saw a woman seeking contraception after just one child. 'The traditional be lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is still strong here,' s he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out their families, or tak e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a thrill to see women and chi ldren in good health.' Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa . Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr ograms. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. Th e Financial Times London Page VII ============= Transaction # 155 ============================================== Transaction #: 155 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:17 Selec. Rec. #: 21 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-13560 _AN-DDVCCAHWFT 930 422 FT 22 APR 93 / Survey of Egypt (13): Fewer children mean a better life - A look at the progress of the government's family plann ing programme By EMMA TUCKER In a l arge, shabby room in old Cairo's Zeinhom district, a small gathering of head scarfed women is waiting to see Dr Mawaheb El-Mouelhy. 'There is no excuse f or not using birth control in Egypt,' says Dr El-Mouelhy, who has been runni ng the family planning clinic since 1986. 'Anyone who wants it, can get it.' Certainly the Egyptian government has been very active in promoting family planning since 1985 when the National Population Council was established. A blunt television campaign tells women that fewer children will mean a better life. On street corners, billboards urge parents to content themselves with two babies. There has been assistance too, from the Grand Mufti, Egypt's hi ghest authority on Islamic jurisprudence. In a pamphlet entitled 'Birth Plan ning and the Religious Point of View,' he declared that family planning did not contradict the teachings of Allah. The NPC has an office in every region of the country. Under a programme sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development, Egypt has been flooded with highly subsidised in tra-uterine devices (IUDs). The official figures are impressive. Total birth s per year have dropped from 1.92m in 1988 to 1.65m last year. The birth rat e has fallen from 39.8 per 1,000 in 1985 to 29.9 per 1000. The contraceptive prevalence rate - women of child-bearing age using contraception - has rise n from 24.2 per cent at the beginning of the 1980s to 47.6 per cent at the b eginning of this decade. Unfortunately these figures cannot mask the fact th at the total population is increasing by over 1m a year, and that at current rates it will take only 30 years for it to double to 114m. The Egyptian Gaz ette, an English language daily, poured scorn on the official population sta tistics earlier this month. It quoted from a report which put the total popu lation about 2m higher than the official count of 56.434m. In spite of effor ts by the government and aid agencies, Egypt's heavily burdened resources ar e coming under too much pressure - 98 per cent of the population live on 4 p er cent of the land. A short drive out of Cairo along the Nile is enough to see how crowded the thin strips of green either side of the river have becom e. Dr Sobhi Abdel-Hakim, professor of population studies at Cairo University , says that the government's target is to reach a total fertility rate of 2 per cent, at which point the population would be replacing itself. He believ es this can be achieved by the year 2025, but the areas outside Cairo and Al exandria continue to present an enormous challenge. Statistics culled from t he rural communities of upper Egypt are significantly less impressive than t hose from the big cities - tradition and lack of resources combine to hinder the progress of the campaign. One aid official pointed out that the proport ion of women of childbearing age using contraception - to over 40 per cent s ince methods of birth control became easily accessible - reflects a demand t hat was already there. 'These are the women who wanted to use contraception but never had access,' he says. 'It is going to take a much greater effort, and much more investment in information campaigns, to persuade those who are reluctant.' Although the NPC is represented in every governorate of Egypt, Dr Maher Mahran, chairman of the NPC, says that doctors - female doctors in particular - are reluctant to work outside the big towns. The government is trying to reach rural communities with mobile units, but low resources mean that the effort is very stretched. The biggest block to progress in rural ar eas remains poverty. Dr Mouelhy tells the story of Zeinab, in her late thirt ies, pregnant for the tenth time. Zeinab and her husband, a farmer, were pro ud of it; they told Dr El Mouelhy that one more child meant two more helping hands. Poor education - especially education of women - and the tradition o f marrying young is also widespread. Dr Mouelhy, who sees up to 40 women a d ay at the Cairo clinic, says it is unusual to meet a woman of 20, particular ly in rural areas, who has not already had a child. Girls usually leave scho ol at 11 and are often married by 14, although the legal minimum age for mar riage is 16. Moreover, parents tend to keep reproducing until a son has been born. There are also fears that the rise of Islamic fundamentalism will wor k against government and aid agency efforts to bring down the birth rate. Al though the Grand Mufti has spoken in favour of family planning, some imams h ave been preaching against it in local mosques. 'The feminist movement is go ing downhill here,' says Dr Mouelhy. 'We were the pioneers of the movement i n the Middle East, but now it is going backwards.' While the government is c ommitted to the work of the NPC - scarcely a speech passes President Hosni M ubarak's lips without some reference to the problem of population growth - t hose in the field feel the government should do more to promote the cause. A bout a quarter of the funds spent on family planning in Egypt comes from the government, but about 25 per cent of it is in kind, through air time on tel evision and radio. 'Mubarak doesn't put his money where his mouth is,' says one aid official. 'The government doesn't provide enough of a budget to the population council so it can't be as effective as it should be.' He worries that the increase in the contraception prevalence rate is artificial, and th at the moment USAID stops providing IUDs, it will drop back. Although Dr Mah ran is pleased with the progress of the NPC's work, he remains outspoken abo ut the lack of funds. 'The most serious issue is time,' he says. 'The clock is ticking in Egypt and each time you postpone a project by just six months, you lose a lot. We have reached a critical stage.' Back at the Zeinhom clin ic, Dr Mouelhy reflects that when she started work there in 1986, she rarely saw a woman seeking contraception after just one child. 'The traditional be lief that a woman's only job is to produce children is still strong here,' s he says. 'But we now see women who want to spread out their families, or tak e a break from pregnancy, and it gives me such a thrill to see women and chi ldren in good health.' Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa . Industries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Pr ograms. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. Th e Financial Times London Page VII ============= Transaction # 156 ============================================== Transaction #: 156 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:37 Selec. Rec. #: 22 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-12650 _AN-CGQBQAEJFT 920 717 FT 17 JUL 92 / German Interest Rate Rise: Germany fa ces investment fall and slower growth By CHRISTOPHER PARKES BONN THE Bundesbank's act ion will expose the German economy to the risk of falling investment, slower recovery and increased long-term interest rates, German bankers, industrial ists and economists warned yesterday. However, the Bonn government, which ro utinely supports Bundesbank decisions and is careful to show respect for its independence, gave few clues to its real feelings. Mr Theo Waigel, finance minister, said he expected the discount rate rise would 'help bring monetary growth nearer to the target range without burdening economic development in east and west Germany'. Others were more outspoken. Mr Klaus Friedrich, soo n to take over as chief economist at the Dresdner Bank, said the decision wa s 'brave but wrong'. He took issue with the anti-inflationary arguments of M r Helmut Schlesinger, Bundesbank president. All experts agreed inflation was heading down in any case, he said, and there was no need for the extra down ward pressure which would come from yesterday's interest rate increase. Mr W illi Leibfritz, chief economic analyst at the respected Ifo economics instit ute in Munich, said he thought the central bank's move might have been less dramatic had economic growth not been so strong in the first quarter. He acc epted the bank's top priority had to be control of monetary growth. However, the move represented a risk to recovery. Investment in construction and pla nt could be hit, demand would be depressed, profits be reduced and the perio d of economic weakness could be prolonged, Mr Leibfritz suggested. 'It is ce rtainly very difficult to find the balance between fighting inflation and fi ghting economic down-swing. 'After last December's discount rate increase, l ong-term interest rates fell, and it is possible the Bundesbank expects a si milar effect this time. But I rather expect long-term rates could increase a little or at least not be reduced,' he added. The BDI federation of German industries said it doubted that the rates increase would damp monetary growt h quickly. 'The measures need time to work,' it said. Meanwhile, the risks t o Germany's performance should not be under-estimated. Economic reconstructi on in the east relied on heavy investments. The ZDH association, representin g small businesses, said its members, with limited if any access to capital markets, would be hit hard by inevitable increases in overdraft charges and suffer liquidity problems. Despite the doubts, all branches of industry acce pted that the bank had to act. The BDI said that while there was no ideal so lution, 'the considerable over-stepping of money supply targets demands a cl ear stability signal. 'Only tight money can guarantee a stable currency'. Th e following is the text of the statement issued by the Bundesbank yesterday (translation by Reuters): The Central Council of the Bundesbank, at its meet ing today in the presence of Economics Minister Jurgen W Mollermann, conduct ed a review of the 1992 money supply target and the current situation in mon etary policy. It made the following decisions: The German Bundesbank maintai ns the money supply goal established in Decemeber last year, which envisages an increase in M3 money supply of 3.5 to 5.5 per cent from fourth quarter 1 991 to fourth quarter 1992. The assumptions which were the basis of the mone y supply goal at that time are not essentially different today. The discount rate of the German Bundesbank will be raised with effect from July 17 from eight per cent to 8.75 per cent. With this measure, the Bundesbank aims to s tem price pressures, monetary growth and excessive growth in credit volume a nd also to strengthen confidence in maintaining the stability of the mark in the currently difficult conditions in united Germany. -------------------- -------------------------------------------------- GERMAN INTEREST RATES -- -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1931: C reditanstalt 1933: Hitler takes power 1939-45: Second World War 1948: Birth of the D-Mark 1949: Federal Republic established 1958: D-Mark becomes conver tible 1961: First D-Mark revaluation 1966: Chancellor Ludwig Erhard forced o ut by high interest rates 1969: Second D-Mark revaluation 1973: Bretton Wood s system collapses 1979: European Monetary system set up 1982: Chancellor He lmut Schmidt quits after Bundesbank tightening causes recession 1990: German reunification 1991: Maastricht treaty agreed ----------------------- ----------------------------------------------- The Financial T imes London Page 2 ============= Transaction # 157 ============================================== Transaction #: 157 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:52 Selec. Rec. #: 23 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-8776 _AN-CHLBKAEMFT 9208 08 FT 08 AUG 92 / Houses: the myths and the reality: Joh n Authers explains why the market has sagged. He says houses look good value against past trends, but buyers should forget about making big profits By JOHN AUTHERS LIKE medieval quacks ar ound an ailing body, British building societies are suggesting their cures f or the sickly housing market. But why should anyone believe that the market needs special medicine to aid recovery? Since house prices have fallen on av erage by about a quarter in real terms since July 1989, some properties are beginning to seem good value. As the charts on this page show, if you strip out inflation, houses are no longer expensive judged against the trend of th e past quarter-century. Moreover, house prices as a proportion of average ea rnings - a measure of what buyers can afford - are now close to their lowest for 25 years. As in any other market, activity can be expected to revive wh en demand and supply are brought into balance by a mutually convenient price ; and present prices appear, by historical criteria, to be not far from this point. But the alarm is still easy to understand. Weakness in the housing m arket hits British consumers more forcibly than most other economic ills ass ailing the world - for example, exchange rate fluctuations. This is partly b ecause of the large debts incurred to buy houses, and partly because of a de eply ingrained belief among the British public that house prices would surf comfortably ahead of inflation for ever. This 'bubble mentality' developed p articularly strongly during the 1980s - the decade of Thatcherism which prod uced a property-owning democracy and bull markets in everything. House-buyin g was then endowed with an unjustified illusion of grandeur. Houses were not only somewhere to live. They became investments - and, with hindsight, unfo rtunately speculative ones. Now, although house prices may seem ready to rec over, buyers and sellers must first attain a more realistic view of the mark et. It is no longer, as a generation came to believe, a perpetual motion mac hine which will carry every house owner effortlessly from debt to high prosp erity. It is not surprising that people were gripped by this idea. The graph of actual prices shows that Pounds 10,000 invested in housing in 1955 was w orth Pounds 300,000 25 years later. It is the kind of comparison which inspi res feelings of pride and security among many householders, But these teleph one number figures are partly an illusion. Most of the rise represents infla tion. The line below shows that, in the real world, house prices outstripped the rise in the retail prices index by only 2.2 percentage points a year on average during the 1970s and 1980s. In that period, house prices grew hardl y faster than average earnings (if both are adjusted for price inflation). R eal earnings rose by an average of 1.7 per cent a year. These figures may in spire comfort, but nothing more. But the 'boom' periods of the early 1970s, late 1970s and late 1980s provided opportunities for big profits. These help ed establish the myth that borrowing to buy a house would always be a good i nvestment. Examined more closely, the figures tell a rather different story. Increases in average earnings usually cause an increase in house prices. Ea rnings have grown faster than inflation since the Second World War, helping housing prices to inflate more quickly than most other products. But the phe nomenon is complex. The most important measure of whether it will be worthwh ile to buy a house is 'affordability,' generally measured as the ratio of av erage house prices to average earnings. This ratio varies widely and reveals a lot about the present state of the housing market. Historically, the aver age house normally is worth about 3.5 times the average salary. If this rati o gets much above 4.0, prices come under pressure because houses are hard to afford. In 1973, the ratio hit 4.95. The next year it was 4.25, and the fol lowing year 3.65. But this was during an era when inflation topped 20 per ce nt. So affordability could improve without big reductions in nominal house p rices. In the 1990s, with wages rising more slowly, affordability could be a chieved only by price cuts. In 1988, the ratio was 4.25. This rose to 4.43 t he following year, and moved to 4.34 in 1990. According to the Building Soci eties' Association (BSA), this fell to 3.90 last year and to 3.55 in the fir st quarter of this year. That ratio now is probably below 3.5. Judging by th e Nationwide house price index figures recently released, and not shown in t he lower graph, houses are roughly as affordable as they have been for two d ecades - a good sign. But it does not tell the whole story. Prices on their own do not reflect the true cost to a consumer of buying their house. Homes are usually bought with the help of a mortgage, on which interest rates vary . And while house prices have come down from the unrealistic peaks of 1989, real interest rates (compared with inflation) have risen. The last housing b oom was propelled by interest rates which were lower than the inflation rate , so mortgage debts were being eroded by inflation while the value of the as set on which they were secured was rising steeply. In the 1990s, the opposit e has been happening. The BSA's figures for average initial mortgage repayme nts as a percentage of average earnings and income show that 1990 was a trul y excessive year. Then, repayments took up 26.3 per cent of average income. In 1989, this figure was 22.8 per cent. In 1988, it was 17.9 per cent. This ratio began to fall after the base rate cut in October 1990 which accompanie d the decision to join the European exchange rate mechanism. It dropped to 2 5 per cent by the beginning of last year and had reached 19 per cent in the first quarter of '92. The BSA says this extended measure of affordability is almost exactly equal to its level in 1980, and a third lower than its peak only two years ago. But this measure still gives rise to concern because it never reached similar heights during the domestic property boom of the early 1970s - it stood at 15 per cent in 1973-74 having stood below 13 per cent f rom 1969 to 1972. To make houses truly cheap to buy, then, either prices mus t come down further or mortgage rates must fall. Thus, the building societie s' clamour for lower base rates begins to look understandable. So, on a long -term perspective, houses look cheap but debt is expensive. In the short ter m, though, prices could well dip below their historic trend, just as three y ears ago they surged above it. Do any special features of supply and demand suggest a change to this trend? The market for housing is 'sticky,' with sup ply constricted by several factors which helped to produce the modest house price inflation of the past 50 years. Most obviously, homes take time to bui ld (usually about 20 months), so supply will not always be able to keep up w ith a sudden increase in demand. This opens the prospect of periodic house p rice inflation 'bubbles.' Planning restrictions imposed by local authorities help further to constrict supply. Councils tend to be strictest in overcrow ded areas where housing demand is highest. Then, as Barry Riley discusses in his column on this page, there are repossessions. A few years ago, nobody w ould have regarded them as a separate source of supply. Things are different now. Lenders repossessed 35,750 homes in the first half of this year, mainl y because householders could not afford to keep up their repayments. Attempt s usually are made to sell them quickly, increasing the downward pressure on prices. The market also is affected by the need of elderly people to sell t heir houses to pay for expensive medical care. In the longer term, this coul d help to increase supply and so to depress prices. The effect of demographi c changes on demand is also likely to weaken prices. After the Second World War and up to 1964, the birth rate grew; then it fell considerably. People b orn in 1964 are only 28 this year. So demand from first-time buyers, who ten d to be between 20 and 35, is likely to be maintained for a few years - but it will drop by the end of this decade. This often is described over-emotive ly as a 'time bomb'. But the figures do suggest that the market cannot pick up at the end of the 1990s in the way it did at the end of the 1980s. The po st-war growth in owner-occupation suggests a further negative influence in t he long term. The higher the proportion of the population which already owns a house, then, theoretically, the lower the potential for growth in demand. Roughly a quarter of Britain's housing stock was owner-occupied in 1945. Th is rose to 42.3 per cent in 1960, 50 per cent in 1970 and 55.5 per cent in 1 980. It now stands at around 67.5 per cent. The BSA's research suggests that unmet demand for owner-occupation has remained fairly static over the past few years, but it is hard to see any scope for continued significant increas es. So is this the time to buy? The question should not be imbued with a spi rit of speculation. There is no reason to expect a take-off in property pric es, or a return to the Thatcher era illusion of housing as a high-return inv estment. But all the fundamentals, with the arguable exception of the cost o f buying houses, do point to the market offering fair value at present. Home s are no longer overpriced, if past trends are a guide, and there is little reason to fear a repeat of the horrors which hit those who bought at the pea k in 1987 and 1988. Thus, the next two years should be a good time to buy - although not a good time to make a killing. Indeed, those buying now could s ee the value of their purchase decline somewhat for a year or two if prices fall under the trend line. The fundamentals do not seem to justify any attem pted miracle cure along the lines suggested this week by the building societ ies. The ultimate cure, which depends on many external factors, will be lowe r interest rates. Dream homes - nightmare scenarios: Page III Mortgage lende rs go for caution: Page IV The Financial Times Lo ndon Page I ============= Transaction # 158 ============================================== Transaction #: 158 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:49:57 Selec. Rec. #: 24 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-6881 _AN-DHYB7AC6FT 9308 25 FT 25 AUG 93 / Prolonged pangs of a difficult birth: Martin Wolf asks whether the gestation of Emu is following the Maastricht ti metable, or could delivery be easier? By MARTIN WOLF Is the European Community's project for economic and monet ary union alive or did it die with the old exchange rate mechanism? The achi evement of Emu is indeed doubtful, but not because of the change in the ERM, which is perfectly compatible with a move to Emu. The breakdown in the ERM matters more because of what it signifies. Ultimately, a move to Emu require s a political decision to forge a common monetary policy. The Maastricht tre aty did not ensure that this decision would be taken. Events since then have cast serious doubt on whether the political will to do so exists. A monetar y union could be forged tomorrow. All that would be needed is for the centra l banks of two or more EC member countries to make an open-ended commitment to support one another's currencies and, by implication, pursue a joint mone tary policy. To the extent that investors would try to convert one money int o another, the quantity of the weaker currency would shrink, while that of t he stronger would grow. But aggregate money supply of the union would be una ffected. Since a central bank can always create its own currency without lim it, such a union is secure, provided the mutual commitment remains in force. The difference between such an arrangement and the ERM is like that between chalk and cheese. With a limited commitment by the central bank responsible for the strongest currency, the cost of maintaining the weakest falls princ ipally on those responsible for the weaker ones. To reinforce their exchange rates they must increase the cost of speculation, which also raises the cos ts on domestic borrowers. Since there is a limit to the monetary stringency political realities will allow, no narrow-band parity can be fully credible. An open-ended mutual commitment is not the only way, in principle, to ensur e the main benefits of monetary union. One alternative would be a 19th-centu ry gold standard; another would be a currency board, which is an obligation to convert foreign currency into its domestic equivalent at a fixed price. B ut the former was successful because it originated from the use of gold as d omestic money, developed via a commitment to convertibility of paper money i nto gold and, above all, flourished when the political commitment to price s tability was unquestioned. As for the latter, it demands a credible subordin ation of one country's money to another. That may be plausible for the Hong Kong dollar vis a vis the US dollar, it is not for the French franc vis a vi s the D-mark. The EC, in short, cannot be a little bit pregnant with Emu. Ho wever protracted and complex the courtship, participants must achieve consum mation, conception, pregnancy and birth at one specific moment. That moment need not be indicated in advance. But there must be a decisive shift from se parate monies with separate monetary policies to a single monetary policy an d perhaps a single currency. The apparent precision of the Maastricht treaty about how this is to happen is deceptive. In fact the treaty represented a series of awkward, probably unworkable, compromises: between the ostensible German willingness to accept the ultimate goal of Emu, if, like Saint August ine, 'not yet', and the desire of the French to move as quickly as possible; between the need for universal participation and German suspicion of some p articipants, such as Italy; and between the desire to eliminate the Bundesba nk's hegemony and its determination to preserve it as long as possible. To p ut off the evil day, while weeding out those deemed unworthy, the Germans in sisted on tough convergence criteria; to ensure their happy day would come, the French and Italians obtained what looks like a binding 1999 deadline; to give hope to all who want to join Emu, the convergence criteria are ambiguo us; and to give them still greater hope, the European Council is to decide w hether a country meets the conditions on the basis of a qualified majority v ote. It is difficult to imagine a treaty more conducive to mutual recriminat ion. The transition laid out in the treaty contained three principal element s: Convergence criteria on inflation, long-term interest rates, fiscal defic its, public debt and participation in the ERM; A time-table that is both lon g - up to six years - and inflexible; and A leap from the ERM to Emu managed by an untried and as yet non-existent institution. The most problematic of these is the first, not merely in light of events, but even in principle. Th e convergence criteria neither make much sense in themselves, nor, at least as important, help Germany to include those it wants to include and exclude those it wants to exclude. They do not, in other words, help to solve the fu ndamental political challenge posed by the move to Emu. The criteria in the treaty were that a country shall possess: A currency that 'shall have respec ted the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the ERM of the European M onetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years befor e the examination'; 'An average nominal long-term interest rate that does no t exceed by more than 2 percentage point that of, at most, the three best-pe rforming member states in terms of price stability'; An average rate of infl ation that 'does not exceed by more than 1 1/2 percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing member states'; and A sustainable governmen t financial position. This is defined, first by 'whether the ratio of the pl anned or actual government deficit to gross domestic product exceeds' 3 per cent, 'unless either the ratio has declined substantially and continuously a nd reached a level that comes close to' 3 per cent or 'the excess . . . is o nly exceptional and temporary'; and, second, by 'whether the ratio of govern ment debt to GDP exceeeds 60 per cent, 'unless the ratio is sufficiently dim inishing and approaching' 60 per cent 'at a satisfactory pace'. Is the fate of Europe to hang on such obscurities? Consider just a few of the problems. The interest rate criterion is not independent, since it will be met if Emu itself is credible. Meanwhile, the inflation criterion is merely a relative, not an absolute, one; and assessment of whether or not it has been achieved is not to be qualified by economic performance. Most important, however, ar e the fiscal tests, the ones being most comprehensively violated at the mome nt (see chart). These tests, too, have only limited logic behind them. Above all, as Mr Helmut Schlesinger, the Bundesbank president, has realised, they do not differentiate satisfactorily between countries the Germans might acc ept inside Emu and those they would not. If Belgium, for example, were to be included, despite its fiscal policy failure, how could Spain be excluded, j ust because it failed some other test? These defects in the criteria are a m atter of some importance. This is not because successful passing of the test s is a necessary or sufficient condition for a workable Emu. On the contrary , some seem irrelevant, even perverse. The limitation on fiscal deficits in a monetary union with exiguous fiscal transfers seems particularly inappropr iate. Interestingly, almost the only criterion that might make sense - the l imit on fiscal debt - is the one over which Mr Schlesinger has indicated gre atest flexibility. The explanation for this must be political, since the ins olvency of a member state might indeed imperil the European Central Bank's i ndependence. The reason the defects matter is rather different. The tests ar e essentially an initiation ritual. Applicants for Emu are required to show how committed to monetary stability they are. The problem is that it may pro ve impossible to agree on who will have passed, unless, as now seems rather probable, everyone is agreed to have failed. The collapse of the old ERM doe s not change much directly. On the contrary, it would almost certainly be ea sier to meet the ERM criterion with 15 per cent bands, if these became 'the normal fluctuation margins', than with the 2 1/4 per cent bands, which were deemed normal before. What the collapse of the ERM shows is that the initiat ion itself has been too hard. This undermines mutual trust and shakes the po litical commitment to Emu. For this, there have been two reasons. The first is that the institution in charge of this rite of passage has an incentive t o ensure everyone fails. The second is that German unification has given the Bundesbank the opportunity, almost the obligation, to pursue policies likel y to ensure they all do. Ironically, German unification was both a spur for the Maastricht treaty and the main reason why it will not be achieved in the way once assumed. Unification disrupted the ERM by giving the anchor countr y relatively high inflation, which drove real short-term interest rates to i ntolerable levels elsewhere in the ERM. Unification also demanded a short-te rm real appreciation of the D-Mark, in order to transfer resources from the current account surplus into eastern Germany. In a fixed exchange rate regim e, the needed appreciation could only be achieved by higher inflation in Ger many than elsewhere, which, given the Bundesbank's objectives, also imposed a fierce disinflation on Germany's partner countries. Finally, that pressure also created the vicious circle of speculation, higher interest rates and s till more speculation which dissolved the old ERM. What are the alternatives now? One possibility would be to press on regardless. Participants might ho pe that the problem posed by German unification is now slowly passing, as in terest rates fall and the D-Mark depreciates against the dollar, the yen and even the currencies of other EC member states. It would then be possible ei ther to move back into narrow bands, however tentatively, or, more sensibly, to leave the ERM as it is until the move to Emu. Presumably, the failure to meet the fiscal criteria would be judged with the benevolence implied by th e treaty's ambiguities. A second option would be to accept that the politica l will to make this transition is lacking. Emu entails a high degree of mutu al trust. While the move to Emu could indeed continue more or less as planne d, at least on paper, the political committment to it must be doubted. This is not just a matter of the difficult passage of the treaty in many member c ountries, though that is revealing. Nor is it a question of the lack of enth usiasm of the Germans, important though that must be. The most significant p oint is that the Bundesbank policies which disrupted the ERM were pursued, w ithout serious internal protest, on the basis of that institution's debatabl y extreme view of German monetary and economic developments. Never mind Mr K ohl's pro-European rhetoric. Never mind Germany's ostensible commitment to t he ambiguous Maastricht treaty. Just look at the reality of German fiscal an d monetary policies. A third option then would be to force the issue. Those who do trust one another (if any) could make the needed mutual commitment no w. There is nothing to suggest the decision would be any easier in 1997 or 1 999. Worst of all, if member states just stagger on, pretending to try to ac hieve these criteria, the political and economic costs for Europe could prov e prohibitive. Whatever the economic advisability of Emu itself, it must be senseless to spend six years, perhaps more, subordinating everything to that aim within a recession-mired, high-unemployment EC economy. Emu requires th e making of an irrevocable decision. The Maastricht treaty appeared to mean that the decision had already been made. But this was deceptive. Those count ries that could plausibly share a successful Emu - a far smaller number than the 12, both now and for the foreseeable future - should either take the le ap or shelve the idea. If this marriage is to happen at all, it should be ma de now. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- The ERM dissolves ---------------------------------------------------- ------------------- -1962: European Commission sets out goal of Emu -1970 : Werner plan aim of Emu by 1980 -1973: Final break-up of Bretton Woods s ystem -1979: European Monetary System (EMS) starts -1987: European Singl e Act takes effect, laying down goal of Emu. Last general alignment before 1992 -1990: German unification. Sterling joins the ERM -1991: Ma astricht summit lays down firm Emu timetable -1992: Sterling/Lira leave ER M -1993: ERM moves to 15 per cent bands -1994: 'Second stage' of Emu to start, with creation of European Monetary Institute -1997 or 1999: 'Third stage' of Emu envisaged, with permanent fixing of currencie s for EC countries meeting convergence criteria --------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Countries:- QRZ European Economic Community (EC). Industries:- P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times Londo n Page 13 ============= Transaction # 159 ============================================== Transaction #: 159 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:05 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 313 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 160 ============================================== Transaction #: 160 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:05 Selec. Rec. #: 25 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT923-2918 _AN-CIOBXAD7FT 9209 15 FT 15 SEP 92 / Foreign Exchanges: Realignment weakens D-Mark By JAMES BLITZ THE REALIGNM ENT of the European Monetary System weakened the D-Mark against most currenc ies yesterday, but the market remained uncertain about the immediate future for exchange rates, writes James Blitz. The devaluation of the Italian lira and the cut in the Bundesbank's interest rates were intended to convince dea lers that the EMS is a fixed system that will not disappear, whatever the ou tcome of this weekend's referendum in France on the Maastricht treaty. The B undesbank showed that it was prepared to bow to international pressure to lo wer interest rates if that would help a realignment of the ERM. Mr Jim O'Nei ll, head of research at Swiss Bank Corp in London, said: 'Although the rate cuts were small, the principle of bowing to int-ernational pressure was sign ificant. What we saw yesterday may even be the birth of the new European Cen tral Bank.' Three factors could still upset the EMS structure in the short t erm. The first is Sunday's referendum, the shadow of which is now fully over the market. Sterling's performance against the D-Mark yesterday reflected t he uncertainty, with the currency peaking at DM2.8250 overnight, but closing in London at DM2.8125, up more than 2 pfennigs from Friday's close. If the French vote No, the pressure on sterling will be intense on Monday morning, and a rise in UK base rates may be unavoidable. The second pressure will com e if the Germans do not reduce interest rates again. The best interpretation of the Bundesbank's move yesterday was that rates had peaked. Probably the worst came from Mr Norbert Walter, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Frank furt, who said there will not be another rate cut before mid-1993. Countries seeking interest rate reductions, such as the UK, Spain and Portugal, may q uestion the validity of a German-led system again. The third pressure would come if the US dollar weakens again, forcing a new flight into D-Marks. The dollar peaked at DM1.5155 overnight and ended in London at DM1.4855, up 3 1/ 2 pfennigs from Friday's London close. In New York it closed mildly below th e London finish at DM1.4821. The narrower interest rate differential between the US and Germany caused Mr Julian Simmonds, head of foreign exchange at C itibank, to declare that the dollar's fall has bottomed out. But the US econ omy remains fundamentally weak and, in the run-up to the US election, there could be pressure on the currency again. The one European currency that was actively bought was the lira. But it closed in London at L793 per D-Mark, ha ving opened at L784.62, raising fears that the devaluation had been too smal l. The Financial Times London Page 33 ============= Transaction # 161 ============================================== Transaction #: 161 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:08 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-808 _AN-EI0DNAGMFT 94092 7 FT 27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe (3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im plications of an ageing population By EVA KALUZYNSKA Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati on is already aged 65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the rest of the world. 'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the century,' said Dr David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia lising in trends affecting Europe. There are relatively minor variations in birth and death rates among the 17 countries in the European Economic Area ( EEA), but the picture is very clear. Any company considering relocation will obviously factor in current levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre ece, Spain and the UK; highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer s must tune into demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l ong-term personnel policy off the ground. 'Companies may be thinking of movi ng now to a country where costs are low, but they must plan now to keep them low,' said employee-benefits specialist David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo wndes. The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro stat, in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na tural population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra te remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from 11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand. Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU) , are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only in Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor e children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year. Demographers are ringing alarm bells about the need to adjust policies now, both at company and government level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro stat's project on demography. 'In the next five to 10 years it is going to h ave the most acute problems in adjusting to an ageing workforce.' Italy and Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious in France , which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be mothers. The U K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what Cruijsen calls an abn ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen elsewhere in Europe. The o verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent, rather t han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the existing pool of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts agree on the need for two significant shifts in policy and attitude: postponing the age of re tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour force. 'Seniors will sta y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it. Many employees able to do so have retired early over the past decade, and many still expect to do so. 'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy and Japan are already plannin g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and other countries will follow suit, experts say. 'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne ss,' said Coleman. 'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th at a person is old and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.' The idea of older people giving up their places in the workforce to youngsters gathered favour during the recession, though without any significant effect in reduci ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend, rejuvenating their workforc es in the belief that younger people adapted better to new technologies. But Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities: 'Empl oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who have specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult, and fl exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees could be part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe people wil l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.' Employers cas ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make better use of women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent of the labour force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female participation, at 46 .6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2) and the UK(43.2). Ir eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All projections for modest gro wth in the labour force at the turn of the century come from increased level s of female participation,' says Coleman. Formosa thinks employers will come round to offering women with caring responsibilities for children or older people more flexible working arrangements, as they realise the value of doin g so. 'I believe employers will make more of an effort to keep women, as the re is more difficulty in finding replacements.' Coleman estimates that, if a ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female participation in the labour force, the recruits would more than make up for any shortfall. 'There is a hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will be mobilised as married wome n increasingly take up work or return to work.' Europe's ageing workforce ca n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher retirement ages as the ratio of taxpayers to recipients descends from the current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc entives to retire early will go, and the prospect of lower incomes will obli ge seniors to work on. Employers are likely to become involved in improving pension provisions, partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s chemes to which they are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo r later retirement. Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w hich pensions systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir ement will cut the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments. So me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the imbalance in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is no quick fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal migrants, other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he says: 'It se ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour, especially since future demand emphasises high skills.' Importing cheap young labour would ex acerbate one of Europe's biggest problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg ues that western Europe must deal with the impending crisis through making t he best use of its own resources. It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem ployment and invest in more capital-intensive processes to improve productiv ity. And it should mobilise more of its potential working population by maki ng it easier for women to work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren t retirement age. Canny employers can start planning now. Count ries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P9441 Admini stration of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pag e II ============= Transaction # 162 ============================================== Transaction #: 162 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:11 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-4802 _AN-EIGDVADJFT 9409 07 FT 07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio n, not ideology, is key to population control By EDW ARD MORTIMER While doing voluntary service as a teenager in French-speaking Africa, I shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea cher, by urging on him the virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les gosses de naitre, wai],' he expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. (Wai], an all-purpose vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen t.) A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then, and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to al low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate de struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the Ch urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At th at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad potent ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor is it obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church recommends are any more 'natural' than those it condemns. At the Cairo conference on p opulation and development, Vatican delegates are struggling to remove 'pregn ancy termination' from the list of things covered by 'reproductive healthcar e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a phrase about 'taking appropriat e steps to help women avoid abortion, which in no case should be presented a s a method of family planning'. Vatican delegates have wisely avoided taking a stand on the contraception issue. They are not helped by TV footage from the Philippines, where last month Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo nstrated against the conference and their government's family planning polic y, with banners proclaiming: 'Contraception = abortion = murder.' Similarly the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with newspaper headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the Norwegian prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to be legali sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not the confe rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda had been m isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare' could not 'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family planning'. But she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her statements: that 'm orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering or dying in connecti on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and unwanted children'; a nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of controlling sexuality and pro tecting unborn life'. It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua rrel, because each side is attacking the other for a position which, in this conference at least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca use the current prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th an the headlines suggest. In an essay just published in the New York Review of Books, Prof Amartya Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem inds us that the rate of world population growth has fallen in the last two decades from 2.2 to 1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until the size of the world's population becomes nearly stationary'. The number a t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds alarmingly h igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those people will be hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is getting cheaper in those parts of the world where most of them are being born. The danger is the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able to afford western l ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an unsustainable strain on the w orld environment. That problem will not be solved by population control alon e, but anything we can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he lp to make it more manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv e or 'override' methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar e overridden by some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap s ineffective, as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin ce 1979 may, he suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy than to 'more collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ ation and jobs outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian state of Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates below those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi an states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education, healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates, male and female, than any Chinese province. China and Kerala have the advant age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic. But the birth rate is also falling rapidly in Iran (where there is good basic healthcare, and the authorities came round to family planning in 1988) and in most of South America. The Tab let, the British Catholic magazine, even claimed last month, with a certain chutzpah, that because it favours women's education 'the Catholic Church sho uld be regarded as one of the most effective organisations in the world for reducing the rate of population growth'. In other words, the Pope should be congratulated for educating his female followers to the point where they can ignore his advice. Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Pub lic Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 163 ============================================== Transaction #: 163 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:15 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-808 _AN-EI0DNAGMFT 94092 7 FT 27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe (3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im plications of an ageing population By EVA KALUZYNSKA Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati on is already aged 65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the rest of the world. 'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the century,' said Dr David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia lising in trends affecting Europe. There are relatively minor variations in birth and death rates among the 17 countries in the European Economic Area ( EEA), but the picture is very clear. Any company considering relocation will obviously factor in current levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre ece, Spain and the UK; highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer s must tune into demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l ong-term personnel policy off the ground. 'Companies may be thinking of movi ng now to a country where costs are low, but they must plan now to keep them low,' said employee-benefits specialist David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo wndes. The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro stat, in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na tural population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra te remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from 11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand. Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU) , are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only in Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor e children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year. Demographers are ringing alarm bells about the need to adjust policies now, both at company and government level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro stat's project on demography. 'In the next five to 10 years it is going to h ave the most acute problems in adjusting to an ageing workforce.' Italy and Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious in France , which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be mothers. The U K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what Cruijsen calls an abn ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen elsewhere in Europe. The o verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent, rather t han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the existing pool of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts agree on the need for two significant shifts in policy and attitude: postponing the age of re tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour force. 'Seniors will sta y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it. Many employees able to do so have retired early over the past decade, and many still expect to do so. 'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy and Japan are already plannin g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and other countries will follow suit, experts say. 'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne ss,' said Coleman. 'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th at a person is old and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.' The idea of older people giving up their places in the workforce to youngsters gathered favour during the recession, though without any significant effect in reduci ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend, rejuvenating their workforc es in the belief that younger people adapted better to new technologies. But Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities: 'Empl oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who have specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult, and fl exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees could be part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe people wil l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.' Employers cas ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make better use of women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent of the labour force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female participation, at 46 .6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2) and the UK(43.2). Ir eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All projections for modest gro wth in the labour force at the turn of the century come from increased level s of female participation,' says Coleman. Formosa thinks employers will come round to offering women with caring responsibilities for children or older people more flexible working arrangements, as they realise the value of doin g so. 'I believe employers will make more of an effort to keep women, as the re is more difficulty in finding replacements.' Coleman estimates that, if a ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female participation in the labour force, the recruits would more than make up for any shortfall. 'There is a hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will be mobilised as married wome n increasingly take up work or return to work.' Europe's ageing workforce ca n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher retirement ages as the ratio of taxpayers to recipients descends from the current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc entives to retire early will go, and the prospect of lower incomes will obli ge seniors to work on. Employers are likely to become involved in improving pension provisions, partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s chemes to which they are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo r later retirement. Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w hich pensions systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir ement will cut the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments. So me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the imbalance in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is no quick fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal migrants, other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he says: 'It se ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour, especially since future demand emphasises high skills.' Importing cheap young labour would ex acerbate one of Europe's biggest problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg ues that western Europe must deal with the impending crisis through making t he best use of its own resources. It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem ployment and invest in more capital-intensive processes to improve productiv ity. And it should mobilise more of its potential working population by maki ng it easier for women to work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren t retirement age. Canny employers can start planning now. Count ries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P9441 Admini stration of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pag e II ============= Transaction # 164 ============================================== Transaction #: 164 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:42 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-808 _AN-EI0DNAGMFT 94092 7 FT 27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe (3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im plications of an ageing population By EVA KALUZYNSKA Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati on is already aged 65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the rest of the world. 'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the century,' said Dr David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia lising in trends affecting Europe. There are relatively minor variations in birth and death rates among the 17 countries in the European Economic Area ( EEA), but the picture is very clear. Any company considering relocation will obviously factor in current levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre ece, Spain and the UK; highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer s must tune into demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l ong-term personnel policy off the ground. 'Companies may be thinking of movi ng now to a country where costs are low, but they must plan now to keep them low,' said employee-benefits specialist David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo wndes. The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro stat, in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na tural population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra te remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from 11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand. Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU) , are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only in Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor e children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year. Demographers are ringing alarm bells about the need to adjust policies now, both at company and government level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro stat's project on demography. 'In the next five to 10 years it is going to h ave the most acute problems in adjusting to an ageing workforce.' Italy and Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious in France , which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be mothers. The U K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what Cruijsen calls an abn ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen elsewhere in Europe. The o verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent, rather t han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the existing pool of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts agree on the need for two significant shifts in policy and attitude: postponing the age of re tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour force. 'Seniors will sta y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it. Many employees able to do so have retired early over the past decade, and many still expect to do so. 'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy and Japan are already plannin g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and other countries will follow suit, experts say. 'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne ss,' said Coleman. 'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th at a person is old and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.' The idea of older people giving up their places in the workforce to youngsters gathered favour during the recession, though without any significant effect in reduci ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend, rejuvenating their workforc es in the belief that younger people adapted better to new technologies. But Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities: 'Empl oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who have specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult, and fl exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees could be part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe people wil l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.' Employers cas ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make better use of women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent of the labour force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female participation, at 46 .6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2) and the UK(43.2). Ir eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All projections for modest gro wth in the labour force at the turn of the century come from increased level s of female participation,' says Coleman. Formosa thinks employers will come round to offering women with caring responsibilities for children or older people more flexible working arrangements, as they realise the value of doin g so. 'I believe employers will make more of an effort to keep women, as the re is more difficulty in finding replacements.' Coleman estimates that, if a ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female participation in the labour force, the recruits would more than make up for any shortfall. 'There is a hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will be mobilised as married wome n increasingly take up work or return to work.' Europe's ageing workforce ca n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher retirement ages as the ratio of taxpayers to recipients descends from the current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc entives to retire early will go, and the prospect of lower incomes will obli ge seniors to work on. Employers are likely to become involved in improving pension provisions, partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s chemes to which they are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo r later retirement. Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w hich pensions systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir ement will cut the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments. So me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the imbalance in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is no quick fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal migrants, other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he says: 'It se ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour, especially since future demand emphasises high skills.' Importing cheap young labour would ex acerbate one of Europe's biggest problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg ues that western Europe must deal with the impending crisis through making t he best use of its own resources. It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem ployment and invest in more capital-intensive processes to improve productiv ity. And it should mobilise more of its potential working population by maki ng it easier for women to work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren t retirement age. Canny employers can start planning now. Count ries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P9441 Admini stration of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pag e II ============= Transaction # 165 ============================================== Transaction #: 165 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:50:43 Selec. Rec. #: 26 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-808 _AN-EI0DNAGMFT 94092 7 FT 27 SEP 94 / Survey of Business Locations in Europe (3): Later retirement with smaller pensions - Eva Kaluzynska examines the im plications of an ageing population By EVA KALUZYNSKA Europe's workforce is ageing - 15 per cent of the populati on is already aged 65 or over, compared with an average of 6 per cent in the rest of the world. 'We're moving towards the low 20s (%) at the turn of the century,' said Dr David Coleman, a demographer at Oxford University, specia lising in trends affecting Europe. There are relatively minor variations in birth and death rates among the 17 countries in the European Economic Area ( EEA), but the picture is very clear. Any company considering relocation will obviously factor in current levels of social costs, lowest in Portugal, Gre ece, Spain and the UK; highest in Germany, Denmark and Belgium. But employer s must tune into demographic trends now if they want to get a sustainable, l ong-term personnel policy off the ground. 'Companies may be thinking of movi ng now to a country where costs are low, but they must plan now to keep them low,' said employee-benefits specialist David Formosa, of Sedgwick Noble Lo wndes. The baby boom after the war was followed by what demographers at Euro stat, in Luxembourg, call a 'baby bust' in the 1970s. A marked decline in na tural population growth throughout the EEA is continuing, while the death ra te remains stable. In 1993, the birth rate was 11.2 per thousand, down from 11.5 per thousand in 1992; while the death rate stayed at 10.1 per thousand. Women, currently 51.2 per cent of the population in the European Union (EU) , are having fewer children, and they are having them later if at all. Only in Ireland (and Poland, in central Europe) are women still having two or mor e children each. In 1993, there were 4.19m births in the 17 countries of the EEA - 110,000 fewer than the previous year. Demographers are ringing alarm bells about the need to adjust policies now, both at company and government level. 'Germany is the forerunner,' said Harri Cruijsen, team leader at Euro stat's project on demography. 'In the next five to 10 years it is going to h ave the most acute problems in adjusting to an ageing workforce.' Italy and Spain lag by about five to 10 years. The situation is less serious in France , which has had a policy of financial incentives for would-be mothers. The U K could also buck the trend up to a point, due to what Cruijsen calls an abn ormally high rate of teenage pregnancies not seen elsewhere in Europe. The o verall implications are stark. Employers who stay on the continent, rather t han move nearer to markets in Asia, must make the most of the existing pool of potential labour, given the lack of youngsters. Experts agree on the need for two significant shifts in policy and attitude: postponing the age of re tirement, and recruiting more women into the labour force. 'Seniors will sta y on, females will come on,' as Cruijsen puts it. Many employees able to do so have retired early over the past decade, and many still expect to do so. 'This will stop,' said Cruijsen bluntly. Italy and Japan are already plannin g to raise the statutory age of retirement, and other countries will follow suit, experts say. 'The notion of early retirement has overshot its usefulne ss,' said Coleman. 'Active, employable life is getting longer. The notion th at a person is old and past it at 65 is increasingly obsolete.' The idea of older people giving up their places in the workforce to youngsters gathered favour during the recession, though without any significant effect in reduci ng unemployment. Employers encouraged the trend, rejuvenating their workforc es in the belief that younger people adapted better to new technologies. But Formosa urges managers to be innovative in adapting to new realities: 'Empl oyers will have to start thinking differently.' Replacing key staff who have specialised knowledge and experience will become far more difficult, and fl exible solutions, such as part-time schemes for key older employees could be part of the answer. He would recommend phased retirement: 'Maybe people wil l still be doing one or two days a week when they're aged 70.' Employers cas ting round for reserves in the labour force will have to make better use of women, experts say. Women currently make up about 40 per cent of the labour force in the EU. Denmark has the highest rate of female participation, at 46 .6 per cent, followed by France (44.3), Portugal (43.2) and the UK(43.2). Ir eland has the lowest rate, at 34.1 per cent. 'All projections for modest gro wth in the labour force at the turn of the century come from increased level s of female participation,' says Coleman. Formosa thinks employers will come round to offering women with caring responsibilities for children or older people more flexible working arrangements, as they realise the value of doin g so. 'I believe employers will make more of an effort to keep women, as the re is more difficulty in finding replacements.' Coleman estimates that, if a ll EU countries matched Denmark's rate of female participation in the labour force, the recruits would more than make up for any shortfall. 'There is a hidden labour force of at least 30m, which will be mobilised as married wome n increasingly take up work or return to work.' Europe's ageing workforce ca n expect lower statutory pensions, with higher retirement ages as the ratio of taxpayers to recipients descends from the current 2.4:1 to under two. Inc entives to retire early will go, and the prospect of lower incomes will obli ge seniors to work on. Employers are likely to become involved in improving pension provisions, partly through helping employees to set up appropriate s chemes to which they are the main contributors, partly through incentives fo r later retirement. Formosa says there is still time to avoid scenarios in w hich pensions systems collapse under the burden of payments due. Later retir ement will cut the cost of pensions by reducing the duration of payments. So me experts have suggested migration as a potential solution to the imbalance in western Europe's age structure. Coleman is adamant that this is no quick fix. The EEA countries cannot absorb significant numbers of legal migrants, other than those with specific skills for specific periods, he says: 'It se ems eccentric to propose immigration for low-grade labour, especially since future demand emphasises high skills.' Importing cheap young labour would ex acerbate one of Europe's biggest problems, its low productivity. Coleman arg ues that western Europe must deal with the impending crisis through making t he best use of its own resources. It should, he says, retrain to reduce unem ployment and invest in more capital-intensive processes to improve productiv ity. And it should mobilise more of its potential working population by maki ng it easier for women to work, as well as by recruiting those beyond curren t retirement age. Canny employers can start planning now. Count ries:- XGZ Europe. Industries:- P9441 Admini stration of Social and Manpower Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Pag e II ============= Transaction # 166 ============================================== Transaction #: 166 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:51:14 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-4802 _AN-EIGDVADJFT 9409 07 FT 07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio n, not ideology, is key to population control By EDW ARD MORTIMER While doing voluntary service as a teenager in French-speaking Africa, I shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea cher, by urging on him the virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les gosses de naitre, wai],' he expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. (Wai], an all-purpose vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen t.) A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then, and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to al low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate de struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the Ch urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At th at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad potent ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor is it obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church recommends are any more 'natural' than those it condemns. At the Cairo conference on p opulation and development, Vatican delegates are struggling to remove 'pregn ancy termination' from the list of things covered by 'reproductive healthcar e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a phrase about 'taking appropriat e steps to help women avoid abortion, which in no case should be presented a s a method of family planning'. Vatican delegates have wisely avoided taking a stand on the contraception issue. They are not helped by TV footage from the Philippines, where last month Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo nstrated against the conference and their government's family planning polic y, with banners proclaiming: 'Contraception = abortion = murder.' Similarly the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with newspaper headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the Norwegian prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to be legali sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not the confe rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda had been m isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare' could not 'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family planning'. But she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her statements: that 'm orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering or dying in connecti on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and unwanted children'; a nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of controlling sexuality and pro tecting unborn life'. It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua rrel, because each side is attacking the other for a position which, in this conference at least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca use the current prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th an the headlines suggest. In an essay just published in the New York Review of Books, Prof Amartya Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem inds us that the rate of world population growth has fallen in the last two decades from 2.2 to 1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until the size of the world's population becomes nearly stationary'. The number a t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds alarmingly h igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those people will be hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is getting cheaper in those parts of the world where most of them are being born. The danger is the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able to afford western l ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an unsustainable strain on the w orld environment. That problem will not be solved by population control alon e, but anything we can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he lp to make it more manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv e or 'override' methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar e overridden by some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap s ineffective, as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin ce 1979 may, he suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy than to 'more collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ ation and jobs outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian state of Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates below those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi an states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education, healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates, male and female, than any Chinese province. China and Kerala have the advant age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic. But the birth rate is also falling rapidly in Iran (where there is good basic healthcare, and the authorities came round to family planning in 1988) and in most of South America. The Tab let, the British Catholic magazine, even claimed last month, with a certain chutzpah, that because it favours women's education 'the Catholic Church sho uld be regarded as one of the most effective organisations in the world for reducing the rate of population growth'. In other words, the Pope should be congratulated for educating his female followers to the point where they can ignore his advice. Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Pub lic Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 167 ============================================== Transaction #: 167 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:04 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-4802 _AN-EIGDVADJFT 9409 07 FT 07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio n, not ideology, is key to population control By EDW ARD MORTIMER While doing voluntary service as a teenager in French-speaking Africa, I shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea cher, by urging on him the virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les gosses de naitre, wai],' he expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. (Wai], an all-purpose vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen t.) A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then, and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to al low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate de struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the Ch urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At th at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad potent ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor is it obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church recommends are any more 'natural' than those it condemns. At the Cairo conference on p opulation and development, Vatican delegates are struggling to remove 'pregn ancy termination' from the list of things covered by 'reproductive healthcar e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a phrase about 'taking appropriat e steps to help women avoid abortion, which in no case should be presented a s a method of family planning'. Vatican delegates have wisely avoided taking a stand on the contraception issue. They are not helped by TV footage from the Philippines, where last month Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo nstrated against the conference and their government's family planning polic y, with banners proclaiming: 'Contraception = abortion = murder.' Similarly the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with newspaper headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the Norwegian prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to be legali sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not the confe rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda had been m isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare' could not 'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family planning'. But she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her statements: that 'm orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering or dying in connecti on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and unwanted children'; a nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of controlling sexuality and pro tecting unborn life'. It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua rrel, because each side is attacking the other for a position which, in this conference at least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca use the current prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th an the headlines suggest. In an essay just published in the New York Review of Books, Prof Amartya Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem inds us that the rate of world population growth has fallen in the last two decades from 2.2 to 1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until the size of the world's population becomes nearly stationary'. The number a t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds alarmingly h igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those people will be hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is getting cheaper in those parts of the world where most of them are being born. The danger is the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able to afford western l ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an unsustainable strain on the w orld environment. That problem will not be solved by population control alon e, but anything we can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he lp to make it more manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv e or 'override' methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar e overridden by some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap s ineffective, as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin ce 1979 may, he suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy than to 'more collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ ation and jobs outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian state of Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates below those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi an states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education, healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates, male and female, than any Chinese province. China and Kerala have the advant age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic. But the birth rate is also falling rapidly in Iran (where there is good basic healthcare, and the authorities came round to family planning in 1988) and in most of South America. The Tab let, the British Catholic magazine, even claimed last month, with a certain chutzpah, that because it favours women's education 'the Catholic Church sho uld be regarded as one of the most effective organisations in the world for reducing the rate of population growth'. In other words, the Pope should be congratulated for educating his female followers to the point where they can ignore his advice. Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Pub lic Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 168 ============================================== Transaction #: 168 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:05 Selec. Rec. #: 27 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-4802 _AN-EIGDVADJFT 9409 07 FT 07 SEP 94 / False alarm in Cairo: Women's educatio n, not ideology, is key to population control By EDW ARD MORTIMER While doing voluntary service as a teenager in French-speaking Africa, I shocked a Senegalese friend, a primary school tea cher, by urging on him the virtues of contraception. 'Faut pas empecher les gosses de naitre, wai],' he expostulated: You mustn't stop kids being born. (Wai], an all-purpose vernacular exclamation, added emphasis to his statemen t.) A Moslem, though by no means a fundamentalist, my friend had unwittingly given a succinct summary of Catholic doctrine. I had trouble with it then, and I have trouble with it now. I've always thought the Catholic Church has a better case on abortion than most liberals and feminists are willing to al low: it hardly makes one an irrational fanatic to describe the deliberate de struction of an embryo human being as the 'taking of human life'. But the Ch urch weakens its case enormously by pushing it back before conception. At th at stage there is no individual human life to be taken: only a myriad potent ial combinations, almost all of which nature will rule out anyway. Nor is it obvious that the methods of avoiding conception which the church recommends are any more 'natural' than those it condemns. At the Cairo conference on p opulation and development, Vatican delegates are struggling to remove 'pregn ancy termination' from the list of things covered by 'reproductive healthcar e' in the UN draft document and to salvage a phrase about 'taking appropriat e steps to help women avoid abortion, which in no case should be presented a s a method of family planning'. Vatican delegates have wisely avoided taking a stand on the contraception issue. They are not helped by TV footage from the Philippines, where last month Catholics, led by Cardinal Jaime Sin, demo nstrated against the conference and their government's family planning polic y, with banners proclaiming: 'Contraception = abortion = murder.' Similarly the conference's organisers must have been less than pleased with newspaper headlines yesterday suggesting that Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland, the Norwegian prime minister, won a standing ovation by calling for abortion to be legali sed worldwide. They have taken pains to establish that this is not the confe rence's agenda. Mrs Brundtland herself complained that the agenda had been m isrepresented, suggesting that the term 'reproductive healthcare' could not 'possibly be read as promoting abortion as a means of family planning'. But she clearly meant to take on the Vatican with two of her statements: that 'm orality becomes hypocrisy if it means mothers suffering or dying in connecti on with unwanted pregnancies and illegal abortions and unwanted children'; a nd that morality cannot 'only be a question of controlling sexuality and pro tecting unborn life'. It is a false quarrel about a false alarm. A false qua rrel, because each side is attacking the other for a position which, in this conference at least, it is not attempting to defend. And a false alarm beca use the current prospect for world population growth is less catastrophic th an the headlines suggest. In an essay just published in the New York Review of Books, Prof Amartya Sen, a leading expert on the economics of famine, rem inds us that the rate of world population growth has fallen in the last two decades from 2.2 to 1.7 per cent, and 'is expected to go steadily down until the size of the world's population becomes nearly stationary'. The number a t which it will eventually stabilise, around 10bn, still sounds alarmingly h igh. It is, but not - as many imagine - because most of those people will be hungry and poor: per capita incomes are rising and food is getting cheaper in those parts of the world where most of them are being born. The danger is the opposite: sooner or later most of them will be able to afford western l ifestyles and consumption patterns, putting an unsustainable strain on the w orld environment. That problem will not be solved by population control alon e, but anything we can do to accelerate the fall in the birth rate should he lp to make it more manageable. But Prof Sen makes a strong case that coerciv e or 'override' methods - those in which 'the family's personal decisions ar e overridden by some agency outside the family' - are unnecessary and perhap s ineffective, as well as being inhumane. The fall in China's birth rate sin ce 1979 may, he suggests, be due less to the authoritarian one-child policy than to 'more collaborative and participatory' policies which have made educ ation and jobs outside the home available to many Chinese women. The Indian state of Kerala, with 29m people, has reduced its birth and fertility rates below those of China without any state coercion. It is among the poorer Indi an states (so economic growth is not in itself the solution, as is sometimes argued), but it resembles China in having 'high levels of basic education, healthcare and so on'. Most strikingly, it has higher rural literacy rates, male and female, than any Chinese province. China and Kerala have the advant age of being neither Moslem nor Catholic. But the birth rate is also falling rapidly in Iran (where there is good basic healthcare, and the authorities came round to family planning in 1988) and in most of South America. The Tab let, the British Catholic magazine, even claimed last month, with a certain chutzpah, that because it favours women's education 'the Catholic Church sho uld be regarded as one of the most effective organisations in the world for reducing the rate of population growth'. In other words, the Pope should be congratulated for educating his female followers to the point where they can ignore his advice. Countries:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. XAZ World. Industries:- P9431 Administration of Pub lic Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 20 ============= Transaction # 169 ============================================== Transaction #: 169 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:17 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 170 ============================================== Transaction #: 170 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:23 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 171 ============================================== Transaction #: 171 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:25 Selec. Rec. #: 28 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT941-9688 _AN-EBNCXAAEFT 9402 14 FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat h rate soars By JOHN LLOYD M OSCOW Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra matic rise in death rates and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o fficial figures which have largely been kept hidden from public debate. In t he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths mor e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male mortal ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the industrialised w orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s. The results, which have been a matter of close concern at the level of Russia's National Security C ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were given at a conference last wee k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of the Population, while further rese arch into the figures has been done by Ms Judith Shapiro, a British academic working with the macroeconomic and finance unit which was attached to the R ussian finance ministry until last month. Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed , she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the death rate, with much of the incr ease due to 'killings, suicides and conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in 1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea r. The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in popul ation to 500,000 last year. Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska ya's on figures from the state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have had very limited availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de aths. The average death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely through two causes -a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more violent deaths. Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per cent were from heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were from violent causes. Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of the post-Soviet health service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon. More significant is what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri sing insecurity. Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t o a simple shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p ostpone having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit uation in the society'. Countries:- RUZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme nts. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financi al Times London Page 1 ============= Transaction # 172 ============================================== Transaction #: 172 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:27 Selec. Rec. #: 29 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-2679 _AN-DIQB4ADLFT 9309 17 FT 17 SEP 93 / Letters to the Editor: Total cost of c aesarean births in UK is unnecessarily high From Mis s BARBARA HEWSON Sir, Three cheers for Joe Rogaly ('Birth r ights and wrongs', September 14). The costs to the taxpayer of unnecessary c aesareans is huge. In 1989, a caesarean cost Pounds 1,123, compared with Pou nds 363 for a normal delivery (House of Commons Health Committee, Maternity Services, vol 3). Leading research shows little improvement in outcome with a caesarean rate over 7 per cent (Enkin Keirse & Chambers, A Guide to Effect ive Care in Pregnancy and Childbirth). As some 650,000 women give birth in t he UK each year, my guess is that a national caesarean rate of 13 per cent i n 1992 may have increased public expenditure by some Pounds 30m. Judging by the evidence heard by the health committee, the medical profession engages i n serious anti-competitive practices, in obstructing women's access to midwi ves. GPs rarely inform women of their right to a home birth with a midwife, referring them straight to hospital and an obstetrician. Some obstetricians threatened women wanting home births with detention under the Mental Health Act unless they agreed to a hospital birth. Others told women that they 'nee ded' caesareans and had to go into hospital. There, the need for surgery van ished: they delivered normally. The Royal College of Obstetricians gave evid ence that its practice was to withhold information on risks of hospital birt hs (though not of home births]) from women. Miss Barbara Hewson, barrister, 4 Raymond Buildings, Gray's Inn, London WC1R 5BP Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P8099 Hea lth and Allied Services, NEC. P9431 Administration of Public Health Prog rams. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financ ial Times London Page 16 ============= Transaction # 173 ============================================== Transaction #: 173 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:38 Selec. Rec. #: 30 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-9350 _AN-CKFB8AG8FT 9211 06 FT 06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' By TIM COONE THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc cess and a failure depending on your viewpoint. Low infla tion, sustained growth and a healthy trade surplus add up to a classic textb ook case of good economic management. The appendix would have to point out, though, that almost a quarter of the 3.5m population is marginalised from th e mainstream economy, and a substantial proportion more has little to show f or that good economic management. In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of the middle- and upper-class neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th e river Liffey, which bisects the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity. The only hint of anxiety is the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on almost any house with a reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a longside the personal computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of- living.) City centre restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem invariably to be full, and doing a thriving business. On the other side of the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class and working class nei ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and fast-food shops continue to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly being financed by trans fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and unemployment benefits. De spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing ec onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum ove r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown longer by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992 unemployment is projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour force; easily the highest in the EC. This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha t Ireland has 'one of the most successful unemployed economies in the world. ' Two things explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m embership of the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the EC. Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu m, from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the n umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade. Emig ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in Irelan d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to only 1, 000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US. Meanwhile the gov ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM has severely restr icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had a deflationary eff ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a stable macro-econom ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward investment. It is tha t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in recent years. Merchandi se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while manufacturi ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive performance is now under threat. In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw ards. Some 32 per cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe rcent of imports are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme d sterling, turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo rced into a devaluation. The government, however, has held firm. Using its r emnant exchange controls (which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of the year), raising interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro ad to rebuild reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r ush in September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the punt. Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur ed. Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the 'inne r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans for mon etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually emerges out o f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across Irish political party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade unions, that to link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and the UK's ailing economy would be a fatal error. The question is whether the very high real i nterest rates now being suffered by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p er cent, will prove more damaging than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe rn, the Irish finance minister says: 'The real level of interest rate is far too high, and for the performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . . if the Germans move (to lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u s to do so as well, but we will have to live with high interest rates certai nly for this quarter. (Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 per cent increase.' Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part y, accuses the government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec onomic policy'. He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy - a sweeping reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit al-intensive investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na tional insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene d to encourage investment and job creation, he says. Mr Ahern has a worried eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an exchequer borrowing re quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks likely to be met. Next yea r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill is already locked in thro ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This leaves stark choices: eithe r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC monetary union, or implement si gnificant spending cuts in public services. With a general election looming, neither one of these is a politically soft option. The Financi al Times London Page 34 ============= Transaction # 174 ============================================== Transaction #: 174 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:45 Selec. Rec. #: 30 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-9350 _AN-CKFB8AG8FT 9211 06 FT 06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' By TIM COONE THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc cess and a failure depending on your viewpoint. Low infla tion, sustained growth and a healthy trade surplus add up to a classic textb ook case of good economic management. The appendix would have to point out, though, that almost a quarter of the 3.5m population is marginalised from th e mainstream economy, and a substantial proportion more has little to show f or that good economic management. In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of the middle- and upper-class neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th e river Liffey, which bisects the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity. The only hint of anxiety is the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on almost any house with a reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a longside the personal computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of- living.) City centre restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem invariably to be full, and doing a thriving business. On the other side of the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class and working class nei ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and fast-food shops continue to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly being financed by trans fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and unemployment benefits. De spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing ec onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum ove r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown longer by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992 unemployment is projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour force; easily the highest in the EC. This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha t Ireland has 'one of the most successful unemployed economies in the world. ' Two things explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m embership of the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the EC. Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu m, from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the n umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade. Emig ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in Irelan d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to only 1, 000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US. Meanwhile the gov ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM has severely restr icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had a deflationary eff ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a stable macro-econom ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward investment. It is tha t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in recent years. Merchandi se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while manufacturi ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive performance is now under threat. In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw ards. Some 32 per cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe rcent of imports are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme d sterling, turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo rced into a devaluation. The government, however, has held firm. Using its r emnant exchange controls (which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of the year), raising interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro ad to rebuild reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r ush in September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the punt. Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur ed. Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the 'inne r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans for mon etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually emerges out o f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across Irish political party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade unions, that to link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and the UK's ailing economy would be a fatal error. The question is whether the very high real i nterest rates now being suffered by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p er cent, will prove more damaging than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe rn, the Irish finance minister says: 'The real level of interest rate is far too high, and for the performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . . if the Germans move (to lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u s to do so as well, but we will have to live with high interest rates certai nly for this quarter. (Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 per cent increase.' Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part y, accuses the government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec onomic policy'. He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy - a sweeping reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit al-intensive investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na tional insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene d to encourage investment and job creation, he says. Mr Ahern has a worried eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an exchequer borrowing re quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks likely to be met. Next yea r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill is already locked in thro ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This leaves stark choices: eithe r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC monetary union, or implement si gnificant spending cuts in public services. With a general election looming, neither one of these is a politically soft option. The Financi al Times London Page 34 ============= Transaction # 175 ============================================== Transaction #: 175 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:47 Selec. Rec. #: 30 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT924-9350 _AN-CKFB8AG8FT 9211 06 FT 06 NOV 92 / Survey of Ireland (3): Undeterred by r ecession - 'A successful unemployed economy' By TIM COONE THE Irish economy can be considered both a suc cess and a failure depending on your viewpoint. Low infla tion, sustained growth and a healthy trade surplus add up to a classic textb ook case of good economic management. The appendix would have to point out, though, that almost a quarter of the 3.5m population is marginalised from th e mainstream economy, and a substantial proportion more has little to show f or that good economic management. In Dublin, the carefully-tended gardens of the middle- and upper-class neighbourhoods of the 'southside' - south of th e river Liffey, which bisects the city - give an aura of genteel prosperity. The only hint of anxiety is the ubiquitous burglar alarm, now to be seen on almost any house with a reasonable coat of paint. (It could probably rate a longside the personal computer as a yardstick of the occupant's standard-of- living.) City centre restaurants, with their uniformly expensive menus, seem invariably to be full, and doing a thriving business. On the other side of the Liffey on the 'northside' where lower-middle class and working class nei ghbourhoods predominate, the pubs, supermarkets and fast-food shops continue to ring up profits, but their trade is increasingly being financed by trans fers from the exchequer in the form of welfare and unemployment benefits. De spite the recession, Ireland continues to have one of the fastest-growing ec onomies in the European Community, averaging 5 per cent growth per annum ove r the past five years. But it also has the longest dole queues; grown longer by 30 per cent over the past two years. By the end of 1992 unemployment is projected to pass 300,000, over 21 per cent of the labour force; easily the highest in the EC. This has prompted one sarcastic commentator to remark tha t Ireland has 'one of the most successful unemployed economies in the world. ' Two things explain this ambiguity: Ireland's demographic trends, and its m embership of the narrow band of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) within the EC. Although the birth rate has fallen to about 50,000 live births per annu m, from 70,000 10 years ago, there will be no significant reduction in the n umber of people entering the labour market until the end of the decade. Emig ration, the traditional escape valve for those unable to find work in Irelan d, has declined from an average 30,000 per year in the late 1980s to only 1, 000 last year - because of recession in the UK and the US. Meanwhile the gov ernment's policy to maintain a strong punt within the ERM has severely restr icted exchequer freedom to borrow and spend. This has had a deflationary eff ect on employment and domestic demand, but has created a stable macro-econom ic environment, attractive to export-orientated inward investment. It is tha t sector which has shown the most dramatic growth in recent years. Merchandi se exports are expected to be up by 10 per cent this year, while manufacturi ng output is predicted to grow by 7 per cent. This impressive performance is now under threat. In September sterling abandoned the ERM and floated downw ards. Some 32 per cent of Irish exports are destined for the UK; about 42 pe rcent of imports are sourced there. The financial markets, having overwhelme d sterling, turned on the punt, anticipating that the government would be fo rced into a devaluation. The government, however, has held firm. Using its r emnant exchange controls (which are scheduled to be abolished by the end of the year), raising interest rates by 3 percentage points, and borrowing abro ad to rebuild reserves lost in defending the punt in the first speculative r ush in September, it has managed to throw together a credible defence of the punt. Upon this the entire edifice of Ireland's economic policy is structur ed. Maintaining the punt's link to the DM is Ireland's passport to the 'inne r-core' of hard-currency EC states, which may press ahead with plans for mon etary union and a single currency if a two-speed EC eventually emerges out o f the ERM crisis. There is almost unanimous agreement across Irish political party lines, and between employers' organisations and trade unions, that to link the fate of the Irish economy to that of sterling and the UK's ailing economy would be a fatal error. The question is whether the very high real i nterest rates now being suffered by the economy, currently in excess of 11 p er cent, will prove more damaging than sterling's devaluation. Mr Bertie Ahe rn, the Irish finance minister says: 'The real level of interest rate is far too high, and for the performance of the economy is almost ridiculous . . . if the Germans move (to lower rates) this side of Christmas, it will allow u s to do so as well, but we will have to live with high interest rates certai nly for this quarter. (Then) in 1993 we would be trying to roll back that 3 per cent increase.' Mr John Bruton, leader of Fine Gael, the opposition part y, accuses the government of having 'a foreign exchange policy but not an ec onomic policy'. He is arguing for thorough structural reforms in the economy - a sweeping reform of the tax legislation which currently encourages capit al-intensive investment but discourages labour-intensive investment. High na tional insurance contributions should be reduced and income tax bands widene d to encourage investment and job creation, he says. Mr Ahern has a worried eye on next year's budget. This year the target of an exchequer borrowing re quirement of IPounds 590m, or 2.4 per cent, looks likely to be met. Next yea r a 9 per cent rise in the public sector wage bill is already locked in thro ugh outstanding agreements with the unions. This leaves stark choices: eithe r to abandon the convergence criteria for EC monetary union, or implement si gnificant spending cuts in public services. With a general election looming, neither one of these is a politically soft option. The Financi al Times London Page 34 ============= Transaction # 176 ============================================== Transaction #: 176 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:48 Selec. Rec. #: 31 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5797 _AN-EICAFABCFT 9409 02 FT 02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress: Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go By MARK NICHOLSON None of the women attending the C airo Family Planning Association clinic in the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y esterday knew that the world's biggest population conference was due to open up the road on Monday. Few probably cared; none seemed the least persuaded that seeking family planning advice might be un-Islamic. 'I'm convinced Isla m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a 30-year-old woman swathed in a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety. 'My brother-in-law is a rel igious man and he ordered his wife not to use contraception. He tried to det er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all my friends to come to the clini c. Now all of them blossom like fresh jasmine.' Hoda has stopped at five chi ldren, and was having a routine check on her IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her 21-year-old sister had come alon g too. She has two daughters and said that was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d on't plan to have any more children. My husband would like a son, but he doe sn't pressure me.' For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo uelhy, a UK and US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati on, determined usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor e commonly, because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho use more children. For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives of the population policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu lation and Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p ut a brake on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli cymakers and aid workers consider little short of remarkable. The population growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per cent. A fertility rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9 births per woman, 2.9 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among married couples is almos t universal, while 47 per cent of women use contraception in Egypt (predomin antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24 per cent in 1980. Behind such res ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by foreign aid, of which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning assistance, a to tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media with birth contro l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics, enough for 96 per cen t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family planning centre. But ch eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such results, they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a populat ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present rates, Egyp t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months. The constraints on the count ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all but 4 per cent of its 1m sq km is desert. A recent report by the UN's Economic and Social Commission fo r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming 95 per cent of its available wat er sources and faced a water deficit by the year 2000. By most estimates, th e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year to mop up new entrants to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate of 5 per cent of GDP, m ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of present growth. The World Ba nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be created by 2000 even to halve t he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent. But population experts tend to agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps 1.9 per cent is unlikely to co me by providing more pills, coils or publicity campaigns alone. 'There is so mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of women in this country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family planning, its ab out education of women.' Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the me of the conference's draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an d one which groups such as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere nce's hosts will take to heart. A well established concomitant between raise d educational standards among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates is seen as the key to future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups argue. A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are illiterat e. Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school s, of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th e rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained at titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that b efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine. Countries: - EGZ Egypt, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Admi nistration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 177 ============================================== Transaction #: 177 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:58 Selec. Rec. #: 31 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5797 _AN-EICAFABCFT 9409 02 FT 02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress: Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go By MARK NICHOLSON None of the women attending the C airo Family Planning Association clinic in the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y esterday knew that the world's biggest population conference was due to open up the road on Monday. Few probably cared; none seemed the least persuaded that seeking family planning advice might be un-Islamic. 'I'm convinced Isla m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a 30-year-old woman swathed in a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety. 'My brother-in-law is a rel igious man and he ordered his wife not to use contraception. He tried to det er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all my friends to come to the clini c. Now all of them blossom like fresh jasmine.' Hoda has stopped at five chi ldren, and was having a routine check on her IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her 21-year-old sister had come alon g too. She has two daughters and said that was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d on't plan to have any more children. My husband would like a son, but he doe sn't pressure me.' For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo uelhy, a UK and US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati on, determined usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor e commonly, because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho use more children. For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives of the population policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu lation and Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p ut a brake on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli cymakers and aid workers consider little short of remarkable. The population growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per cent. A fertility rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9 births per woman, 2.9 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among married couples is almos t universal, while 47 per cent of women use contraception in Egypt (predomin antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24 per cent in 1980. Behind such res ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by foreign aid, of which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning assistance, a to tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media with birth contro l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics, enough for 96 per cen t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family planning centre. But ch eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such results, they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a populat ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present rates, Egyp t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months. The constraints on the count ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all but 4 per cent of its 1m sq km is desert. A recent report by the UN's Economic and Social Commission fo r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming 95 per cent of its available wat er sources and faced a water deficit by the year 2000. By most estimates, th e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year to mop up new entrants to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate of 5 per cent of GDP, m ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of present growth. The World Ba nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be created by 2000 even to halve t he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent. But population experts tend to agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps 1.9 per cent is unlikely to co me by providing more pills, coils or publicity campaigns alone. 'There is so mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of women in this country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family planning, its ab out education of women.' Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the me of the conference's draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an d one which groups such as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere nce's hosts will take to heart. A well established concomitant between raise d educational standards among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates is seen as the key to future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups argue. A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are illiterat e. Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school s, of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th e rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained at titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that b efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine. Countries: - EGZ Egypt, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Admi nistration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 178 ============================================== Transaction #: 178 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:52:59 Selec. Rec. #: 31 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-5797 _AN-EICAFABCFT 9409 02 FT 02 SEP 94 / Where Egypt boasts decade of progress: Population curbs have worked, but there is still far to go By MARK NICHOLSON None of the women attending the C airo Family Planning Association clinic in the sprawling suburb of Zeinhom y esterday knew that the world's biggest population conference was due to open up the road on Monday. Few probably cared; none seemed the least persuaded that seeking family planning advice might be un-Islamic. 'I'm convinced Isla m is not against family planning,' said Hoda, a 30-year-old woman swathed in a black Hejab veil, the badge of Islamic piety. 'My brother-in-law is a rel igious man and he ordered his wife not to use contraception. He tried to det er me, but I didn't listen. I encouraged all my friends to come to the clini c. Now all of them blossom like fresh jasmine.' Hoda has stopped at five chi ldren, and was having a routine check on her IUD, a visit which cost 25 pias tres (about 5p) at this private clinic. Her 21-year-old sister had come alon g too. She has two daughters and said that was enough: 'I have an IUD, and d on't plan to have any more children. My husband would like a son, but he doe sn't pressure me.' For most women visiting the clinic, said Dr Mawahab el-Mo uelhy, a UK and US-educated doctor, birth control is a practical considerati on, determined usually by women's concerns for their health and, perhaps mor e commonly, because they simply cannot afford to clothe, feed, educate or ho use more children. For all the criticism by Egypt's religious conservatives of the population policy agenda of Monday's International Conference on Popu lation and Development, the strictures of Islam have so far done little to p ut a brake on a decade of progress in population control, which Egypt's poli cymakers and aid workers consider little short of remarkable. The population growth rate has plunged from 3 per cent to about 2.1 per cent. A fertility rate of 5.3 in 1980 has come back to an average of 3.9 births per woman, 2.9 in urban areas. Knowledge of family planning among married couples is almos t universal, while 47 per cent of women use contraception in Egypt (predomin antly IUD devices and the pill) against 24 per cent in 1980. Behind such res ults lie 20 years of concerted government policy, backed by foreign aid, of which USAID has provided 75 per cent of all family planning assistance, a to tal of about Dollars 170m (Pounds 113m), to fill the media with birth contro l information and stock and staff hundreds of clinics, enough for 96 per cen t of all Egyptian women to be within 5km of a family planning centre. But ch eered as the government and organisations such as USAID are by such results, they remain far from meeting their ambition of creating for Egypt a populat ion growth which the country can comfortably sustain. At present rates, Egyp t's 60m population grows by 1m every 10 months. The constraints on the count ry's most basic resources are severe enough; all but 4 per cent of its 1m sq km is desert. A recent report by the UN's Economic and Social Commission fo r Western Asia reckoned Egypt was consuming 95 per cent of its available wat er sources and faced a water deficit by the year 2000. By most estimates, th e economy needs to generate about 500,000 jobs a year to mop up new entrants to the labour force, implying an annual growth rate of 5 per cent of GDP, m ore than twice the most optimistic estimates of present growth. The World Ba nk reckons that at least 5m new jobs must be created by 2000 even to halve t he present unemployment rate of 20 per cent. But population experts tend to agree that cutting the growth rate to perhaps 1.9 per cent is unlikely to co me by providing more pills, coils or publicity campaigns alone. 'There is so mething missing,' says Dr el-Mouelhy. 'Which is the status of women in this country. We need to work hard on this. It's not just family planning, its ab out education of women.' Emphasis on the education of girls is a central the me of the conference's draft document to be discussed next week in Cairo, an d one which groups such as USAID and the Population Council hope the confere nce's hosts will take to heart. A well established concomitant between raise d educational standards among girls and subsequent falls in fertility rates is seen as the key to future policy in countries such as Egypt, these groups argue. A guide to the task lying ahead for Egypt lies in the fact that, by conservative estimates, at least 66 per cent of Egyptian women are illiterat e. Changing that will require more than the provision of teachers and school s, of which Egypt must already build on average one a day to keep up with th e rise in schoolchildren. It will need an attempt to alter many ingrained at titudes, and is likely to depend on an improved economic climate. All that b efore the air can thicken with the scent of jasmine. Countries: - EGZ Egypt, Africa. Industries:- P9431 Admi nistration of Public Health Programs. Types:- CMMT Com ment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 179 ============================================== Transaction #: 179 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:02 Selec. Rec. #: 32 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-6050 _AN-EIAD1AAVFT 9409 01 FT 01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population hits 60m By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in boyc otting it. Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final document to incorporate religious ethics'. Criticism of the Cairo conferenc e centres on the pragmatic approach taken towards issues such as extramarita l and adolescent sex. Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl ier this week, that the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig ious views of the Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu al liberty'. Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio n control in 1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr y's high population growth rate. The average population growth rate of 3.9 p er cent a year in the early 1980s was among the highest in the world. The Is lamic government, which took over after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em phasis than before on early marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother and saw no reason to encourage birth control. It welcomed the growth in pop ulation, seeing it in terms of increased resources to build the country into an Islamic model. By the mid-80s, however, concerns about the economy led t o fears that the high population growth was a threat rather than an aid to e conomic development. Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn ing of the revolution in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the lack of a family planning programme combined with improved health care since the 1960s. Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m. Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop i n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been success ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these figures. Th ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in such a short period of time and cite the need for strengthened data collection and stati stical analysis. The most reliable figures are those of the country's census , taken every five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p er cent in 1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin g countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples. Mr Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund (UN FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning pr ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of th e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive meth ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.' In June, t he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for Iran and par t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic data collection . The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural midwiv es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of Health, wh ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to implement the prog ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4 children per woman in 1 988 to 4.25 in 1993. Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled by the lack of family planning services for almost a decade. An active famil y planning programme was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa tion of the current programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex isting awareness. Another reason for the success of the family planning prog ramme has been a relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U NFPA reaches 60 per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent of the majority urban population. Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ k is very good especially in rural areas and the infrastructure is much bett er than for many Asian countries.' A women's health volunteer programme in t he poor suburbs of southern Tehran has so far produced good results and is t o be extended. Under the programme, women volunteers act as family planning counsellors in areas which are not served by the primary healthcare network. Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen t in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati on and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families. Desp ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead are still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the baby -boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so fertil ity rates will increase. Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag e of 25, there is a need for even more emphasis to be placed on education. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- POPUL ATION IN IRAN ------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Population: 1994 63. 2m 2025 144.6m Aver age growth 1990-95 2.7% Urban popul ation 1992 58% Fertility rate/wom an 1990-95 6.0 Adult literacy 1990: male 65% female 43% Family planning users 1975-93 65% GNP per capita 1991 Dollars 2,170 Share of central govt spending 1991 on: educ ation 20.9% health 7.9% -------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Source: UNFPA ---------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Countrie s:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. IRZ Iran, Middle East. Ind ustries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 180 ============================================== Transaction #: 180 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:20 Selec. Rec. #: 32 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-6050 _AN-EIAD1AAVFT 9409 01 FT 01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population hits 60m By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in boyc otting it. Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final document to incorporate religious ethics'. Criticism of the Cairo conferenc e centres on the pragmatic approach taken towards issues such as extramarita l and adolescent sex. Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl ier this week, that the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig ious views of the Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu al liberty'. Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio n control in 1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr y's high population growth rate. The average population growth rate of 3.9 p er cent a year in the early 1980s was among the highest in the world. The Is lamic government, which took over after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em phasis than before on early marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother and saw no reason to encourage birth control. It welcomed the growth in pop ulation, seeing it in terms of increased resources to build the country into an Islamic model. By the mid-80s, however, concerns about the economy led t o fears that the high population growth was a threat rather than an aid to e conomic development. Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn ing of the revolution in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the lack of a family planning programme combined with improved health care since the 1960s. Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m. Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop i n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been success ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these figures. Th ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in such a short period of time and cite the need for strengthened data collection and stati stical analysis. The most reliable figures are those of the country's census , taken every five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p er cent in 1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin g countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples. Mr Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund (UN FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning pr ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of th e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive meth ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.' In June, t he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for Iran and par t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic data collection . The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural midwiv es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of Health, wh ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to implement the prog ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4 children per woman in 1 988 to 4.25 in 1993. Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled by the lack of family planning services for almost a decade. An active famil y planning programme was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa tion of the current programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex isting awareness. Another reason for the success of the family planning prog ramme has been a relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U NFPA reaches 60 per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent of the majority urban population. Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ k is very good especially in rural areas and the infrastructure is much bett er than for many Asian countries.' A women's health volunteer programme in t he poor suburbs of southern Tehran has so far produced good results and is t o be extended. Under the programme, women volunteers act as family planning counsellors in areas which are not served by the primary healthcare network. Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen t in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati on and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families. Desp ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead are still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the baby -boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so fertil ity rates will increase. Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag e of 25, there is a need for even more emphasis to be placed on education. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- POPUL ATION IN IRAN ------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Population: 1994 63. 2m 2025 144.6m Aver age growth 1990-95 2.7% Urban popul ation 1992 58% Fertility rate/wom an 1990-95 6.0 Adult literacy 1990: male 65% female 43% Family planning users 1975-93 65% GNP per capita 1991 Dollars 2,170 Share of central govt spending 1991 on: educ ation 20.9% health 7.9% -------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Source: UNFPA ---------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Countrie s:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. IRZ Iran, Middle East. Ind ustries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 181 ============================================== Transaction #: 181 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:22 Selec. Rec. #: 32 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT943-6050 _AN-EIAD1AAVFT 9409 01 FT 01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population hits 60m By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in boyc otting it. Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final document to incorporate religious ethics'. Criticism of the Cairo conferenc e centres on the pragmatic approach taken towards issues such as extramarita l and adolescent sex. Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl ier this week, that the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig ious views of the Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu al liberty'. Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio n control in 1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr y's high population growth rate. The average population growth rate of 3.9 p er cent a year in the early 1980s was among the highest in the world. The Is lamic government, which took over after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em phasis than before on early marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother and saw no reason to encourage birth control. It welcomed the growth in pop ulation, seeing it in terms of increased resources to build the country into an Islamic model. By the mid-80s, however, concerns about the economy led t o fears that the high population growth was a threat rather than an aid to e conomic development. Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn ing of the revolution in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the lack of a family planning programme combined with improved health care since the 1960s. Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m. Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop i n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been success ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these figures. Th ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in such a short period of time and cite the need for strengthened data collection and stati stical analysis. The most reliable figures are those of the country's census , taken every five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p er cent in 1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin g countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples. Mr Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund (UN FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning pr ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of th e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive meth ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.' In June, t he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for Iran and par t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic data collection . The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural midwiv es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of Health, wh ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to implement the prog ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4 children per woman in 1 988 to 4.25 in 1993. Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled by the lack of family planning services for almost a decade. An active famil y planning programme was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa tion of the current programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex isting awareness. Another reason for the success of the family planning prog ramme has been a relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U NFPA reaches 60 per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent of the majority urban population. Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ k is very good especially in rural areas and the infrastructure is much bett er than for many Asian countries.' A women's health volunteer programme in t he poor suburbs of southern Tehran has so far produced good results and is t o be extended. Under the programme, women volunteers act as family planning counsellors in areas which are not served by the primary healthcare network. Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen t in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati on and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families. Desp ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead are still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the baby -boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so fertil ity rates will increase. Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag e of 25, there is a need for even more emphasis to be placed on education. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- POPUL ATION IN IRAN ------------------------------------------------------------- --------- Population: 1994 63. 2m 2025 144.6m Aver age growth 1990-95 2.7% Urban popul ation 1992 58% Fertility rate/wom an 1990-95 6.0 Adult literacy 1990: male 65% female 43% Family planning users 1975-93 65% GNP per capita 1991 Dollars 2,170 Share of central govt spending 1991 on: educ ation 20.9% health 7.9% -------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Source: UNFPA ---------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Countrie s:- EGZ Egypt, Africa. IRZ Iran, Middle East. Ind ustries:- P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs. Types:- NEWS General News. The Financial Times London Page 4 ============= Transaction # 182 ============================================== Transaction #: 182 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:23 Selec. Rec. #: 33 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT932-5296 _AN-DFDB5AC8FT 9306 04 FT 04 JUN 93 / Hounded out by fiction and foes: Histo ry will be kinder to Norman Lamont than the tabloid press has been By BILL ROBINSON Norman Lamont must go down as one of the unluckiest chancellors. I hope that history will also see him as a brave man who took unpopular decisions in the best interests of the cou ntry. It is no credit to our governance that he was ultimately brought down by the mob, led on by the popular press. When he took office in November 199 0 the chancellor inherited a double-digit rate of inflation, which he hated, and an economy moving rapidly into recession. He decided to make the elimin ation of inflation his main policy aim and in this he was outstandingly succ essful. The headline inflation rate fell from nearly 11 per cent to just ove r 1 per cent during his stewardship. But the price was high. The recession p roved much longer and deeper than mainstream forecasters had expected. A rec overy, originally expected well ahead of the April 1992 election, was still not in the bag by last Christmas. In the meantime an alarming deterioration in the public finances had become all too visible. A chancellor committed to cutting taxes had to introduce a tax-raising budget. It was, of course, non e of these problems that brought him down. Everybody will remember Norman La mont as the man who had publicly defended an exchange rate policy for which, as the cabinet's leading Euro-sceptic, he had little affection, and then cl ung to office when the policy collapsed. He was filmed on the Treasury steps in late August saying there was no scintilla of doubt that the pound would stay in the ERM. Three weeks later, from a nearby spot, he announced the sus pension of ERM membership. If he had gone then, the reasons for his departur e would have been clear. But his senior colleagues agreed that the ERM debac le was not his fault. He stayed, and on balance I believe he was right to do so. Those who cite the precedent of Jim Callaghan's resignation over the st erling devaluation of 1967 are drawing a distant and misleading parallel. Th ey should look at what other countries have done following the many realignm ent crises that have dogged the ERM at roughly two-year intervals since its birth in 1979. They have not found it necessary to change their finance mini sters along with their ERM parity. Should Mr Lamont have ducked the fight to stay in? That would have been a breach of faith with all in Britain who sup ported ERM entry and with Britain's partners in the EC. Should he have deval ued rather than float? The countries which chose that option have had an unc omfortable time, with interest rates still high and the risk of another real ignment crisis never far away. By fighting to stay in until he was forced ou t, the chancellor sent a very clear signal of his determination to defeat in flation with a strong pound and high interest rates. He also underlined the government's commitment to the ERM, keeping open the option of rejoining the system. That option seemed more important then than now. But when re-entry comes back on the agenda, Mr Lamont's dogged defence of sterling's ERM parit y will stand us in good stead. Once out of the ERM Mr Lamont swiftly cut sho rt-term interest rates, bringing them decisively below German rates, as they needed to be. His Autumn Statement contained further measures to bolster co nfidence, notably the abolition of the car tax. The UK is now enjoying a rec overy while the rest of the Community is in deepening recession. Mr Lamont a lso put in place a new framework for the conduct of policy. He set, for the first time, an explicit inflation target, buttressed by indicative ranges fo r broad and narrow money. He announced that progress on inflation would be m onitored in regular monthly meetings with the governor of the Bank of Englan d, on a pre-announced timetable. He ordered the publication of the internal documents on which that assessment was based. He also gave the Bank of Engla nd a new quasi-independent role in monitoring the inflation performance and publishing a quarterly report on the subject. The new policies were outlined , in a speech to the International Monetary Fund, the weekend immediately af ter exit from the ERM. Over the next few weeks further details were announce d in a letter to the Treasury committee, in the Mansion House speech and in the Autumn Statement. This measured pace was considered too slow by some. Bu t policies made on the hoof are followed all too often by U-turns. The verdi ct of the financial markets on all this is clear. The long bond rate, the ac id test of inflationary expectations, is more than 1 percentage point lower than in September. The exchange rate has held steady. So why did we keep on reading that the City had lost all confidence in the chancellor? Perhaps it was because the tabloids turned on him. Having hounded David Mellor out of o ffice for some over-enthusiastic socialising in a Chelsea strip, they attemp ted to bring down Mr Lamont by character assassination. They produced a misc hievous story about his party conference hotel bill. They dug up another abo ut his Access bill (lost when building works drove him temporarily out of Nu mber 11). They kept digging and found that some of the costs of evicting an unsuitable tenant 18 months earlier had been met out of public funds. Worst of all, when Lamont stopped at the Marble Arch Threshers (on the way home fr om Dorney Wood) to pick up some wine for dinner the incident was turned, by false witness, into a fictitious purchase of champagne and cheap cigarettes in Paddington. He survived it all and went on to present his third Budget - a delicate balancing act. Public borrowing needed to be reduced but the reco very was still very fragile. The chancellor solved the problem by announcing a programme of delayed tax increases. The innovation received good reviews (as had both of his previous Budgets) and the economic data published since then suggest the economy is still on the path to recovery. So during the Eas ter recess it looked as though, for once, all was set fair. Growth had resum ed; inflation, both prices and wages, was hitting record lows; the problem o f the public finances had been addressed. It was a fair bet that Mr Lamont w ould present the first unified Budget, his fourth, and bow out with honour s hortly after. Then came the Newbury by-election. The government suffered a h uge defeat, and suddenly the papers were again full of calls for the chancel lor's resignation. This time he lost the support of his closest colleagues a nd was obliged to depart, to a gleeful tabloid chorus of 'Lamont humiliated' headlines. The departure of a cabinet minister is an important political ev ent. It is usually the result either of a scandal or a big disagreement with in the government over policy. Mr Lamont's departure does not fit that patte rn. The change of policy occurred nine months ago and has proved rather succ essful. The scandals dominated the headlines six months ago, and were either fictitious or not very scandalous. The chancellor nevertheless had to go be cause word came back from Newbury to the party managers that he was unpopula r. The voters mentioned the hotel bill, the Access bill, the lawyers' bill, the Threshers bill. Nobody mentioned the Finance Bill. That reflects the cov erage accorded to Mr Lamont by the tabloids. Politicians are judged by the q uality of their decisions. Mr Lamont took some good ones and leaves the econ omy in much better shape than he found it. The history books will be kinder to him than his contemporaries have been. The author was special adviser to the chancellor and former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries :- P9199 General Government, NEC. P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy. Types:- PEOP People. The Financial Times London Page 18 ============= Transaction # 183 ============================================== Transaction #: 183 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:40 Selec. Rec. #: 34 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT931-12366 _AN-DA3AKAAYFT 930 129 FT 29 JAN 93 / No mass yet to the market: Despite ne w services, UK mobile 'phone charges remain a deterrent By HUGO DIXON On the surface, the UK's mobile communica tions industry has just entered an intensely competitive phase. In the past few months, consumers have been bombarded with advertising campaigns for thr ee new services claiming to be much cheaper than the standard cellular servi ces, and at least four more are to be launched later this year. Vodafone and Cellnet, the two established cellular companies, spent about Pounds 20m on advertising in the last quarter of 1992 and, despite the recession, their cu stomers grew by 163,000 last year, more than double the 1991 growth. The cur rent marketing ferment gives the impression of a price war. Although there a re 1.4m cellular 'phone users in the UK - about twice as many as Germany, Fr ance and Italy respectively - almost all are business users. Observers belie ve the market could reach 10m by 2000, if the price is right. Could the late st marketing be just what is needed to bring about a mass market? The answer is probably no, because prices have not fallen. For instance, Vodafone's ne w Lowcall and Cellnet's new Lifetime services - jointly nicknamed 'Lowlife' - have cheaper subscription charges than the companies' standard cellular se rvices, but higher call rates. The result is that customers calling more tha n once a day actually pay more with the new pricing packages. The only large price discounting has come from Rabbit, a 'telepoint' service run by Hutchi son Telecom. But this is not a direct competitor to cellular, since customer s cannot receive incoming calls and can only make outgoing calls in public p laces where they see the Rabbit sign. These limitations explain why only 8,0 00 have signed up. The mix of vigorous marketing and an absence of price cut s continues a pattern which has been a feature of the cellular industry sinc e its birth in 1985. The reason is that neither Vodafone nor Cellnet, owned jointly by BT and Securicor, has an incentive to jeopardise substantial prof its by launching a price war. And there is no outside pressure to do so, sin ce they were established as a protected duopoly, not subject to price regula tion. Vodafone made operating profits of Pounds 152m from sales of Pounds 32 0m in the six months to the end of last September - a margin of nearly 50 pe r cent. Cellnet, which started losing market share in the late 1980s, made o perating profits of Pounds 75m from sales of Pounds 184m - still a margin of over 40 per cent. Could the entrance of competitors undermine this duopoly? That was certainly the idea behind the government's decision in the late 19 80s to license three personal communications networks, a variation on cellul ar communications, as Cellnet and Vodafone rivals. But things have not worke d out exactly as planned. Microtel, one of the new networks, was sold when i ts backers got cold feet over raising the required Pounds 1bn investment. Th ere are still doubts over whether the new owners, Hong Kong's Hutchison Wham poa and British Aerospace, are willing to put up the cash. This leaves Mercu ry Personal Communications, a merger of the two remaining personal communica tion networks. A joint venture between the UK's Cable and Wireless and US We st, MPC plans to launch its service in the middle of the year. The new 'trip oly' will almost certainly be more competitive than the old duopoly. But it remains to be seen how a market with two established players and one entrant will work. The signs are that all parties wish to avoid a price war. Mercur y, in particular, has made clear that it does not want to compete head-on fo r Vodafone's and Cellnet's existing customers. This might seem odd. But MPC knows that a head-on attack would provoke a price war, which it would not be well placed to win. This is because initially its service will only be avai lable in the south-east, while it will need to subsidise handset prices by a bout Pounds 200 a customer because they will be more expensive to make than standard cellular ones. Moreover, its network design is such that it will on ly be profitable if it eventually attracts more than 1m customers. 'I don't want to fight over 1.4m customers because that is not enough,' explains Mr R ichard Goswell, MPC's managing director. Instead, the company plans to devel op a new segment of the market consisting of small businesses and affluent c onsumers. Mr Goswell promises 'significantly' cheaper prices - rivals expect cuts of about 30 per cent - to achieve this. Its biggest discounts will be on the cost of making incoming calls, which will be less than half current r ates. MPC believes this will be an important selling point. But its rivals c annot understand why MPC would give up a large slice of easy revenue, when c utting incoming charges will not lower customers' bills at all. Cellnet goes so far as to describe the move as 'mad'. Nevertheless, MPC's segmentation a pproach suits Vodafone and Cellnet. It seems to offer them a way of cutting prices for new customers, while keeping margins high on existing business. T heir strategy is to devise pricing packages which appeal to new segments of the market but are not so generous that the existing market is 'cannibalised '. Vodafone has two initiatives planned. The first, called GSM and aimed at the international executive, will allow customers to use their 'phones in ma ny other parts of Europe. It will cost 20 per cent more than the standard se rvice. The second, MCN, will be in direct competition with MPC. Customers wi ll receive large discounts if they make local calls from their local areas, but charges will rise if they make national calls or move outside their loca l areas. Somebody driving along the motorway or in open countryside will pay twice the current rate, which should deter many customers from switching. A similar pricing package, LSM, is planned by Cellnet. It admits candidly: 'W e'll get the impression of price wars but not the reality.' All this means t hat 1993 will not witness the birth of a mass market. To achieve that, price s would have to drop sharply. The average running costs of Pounds 700-Pounds 800 are the main obstacle. Industry executives acknowledge charges will hav e to fall by half to appeal. But Vodafone's and Cellnet's fat profit margins give them both scope to make discounts of that order and Mercury's network design means it will eventually be driven to expand the market. So, although 1993 will see only the appearance of a price war, the reality may not be th at far off. --------------------------------------------------------------- ------- MOBILE SERVICES: COMPARING THE COST ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Vodafone Voda fone Vodafone Vodafone Standard Lowcall GSM MCN ------------------------------------------------------- --------------- Monthly subscription (Pounds) 29 18 35 23 ----------------------------------------------- ----------------------- Outgoing calls Peak rate/minute (p) 29-39 54-63 35-41 12-76 ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Incoming calls Peak rate/minute ( p) 39 39 39 39 --------- ------------------------------------------------------------- Customers (tho usands) 749 46 - - ------------ ---------------------------------------------------------- Investment so far (Pounds m) 550 N/A 80 30 ------- --------------------------------------------------------------- Launch date 1985 1992 Spring Autumn 1993 1993 ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------ Coverage 90 per- (now or at Nation- Nation- cent of Fairly launch) wide wide population nati onwide -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Cellnet Cellnet Cellnet S tandard Lifetime LSM MPC Rabbit --------------------------- ------------------------------------------- Monthly Cheaper Cheaper subscription t han than (Pounds) 29 15-18 standard standard 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------- - Outgoing calls Cheaper Cheaper Peak rate/min ute than than (p) 29-39 59 standard standard 23 ----------------------------------- ----------------------------------- Incoming calls Peak rate/minute (p) 39 39 39 39 N/A ---------------- ------------------------------------------------------ Customers (thousands) 558 44 - - 8 ------------------- --------------------------------------------------- Investment so far (Pound s m) 600 N/A 100+ 300 80 -------------- -------------------------------------------------------- Launch date 1985 1992 1993 mid 1992 1993 ------------------------------------------- --------------------------- Coverage Lon don London Urban (now or at Nation- Nation- Manchester So uth- centres & launch) wide wide Birmingham east main roads -------------------------------------------------------------- -------- Source: FT research and Mobile Communications -------------------- -------------------------------------------------- Subscription and call rat es include VAT ------------------------------------------------------------ ---------- Countries:- GBZ United Kingdom, EC. Industries:- P481 Telephone Communications. Type s:- IND Industry profile. CMMT Comment and Analysis. < PUB>The Financial Times London Page 14 ============= Transaction # 184 ============================================== Transaction #: 184 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:47 Selec. Rec. #: 35 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT934-16374 _AN-DJFC5AGIFT 931 006 FT 06 OCT 93 / Survey of Cable TV and Satellite Broa dcasting (3): The film that can erase itself By RAYM OND SNODDY For years Mr William Graven has been working awa y at his concept of an electronic video store through his company EMC3 - Ent ertainment Made Convenient 3. The idea is that the viewer orders a feature f ilm from a library by using a free telephone number and the film is squirted down to the consumer in a five-minute digitally compressed burst to a speci ally adapted video recorder. The recording can be watched twice but erases i tself on its second play. Mr Graven says he already has reached agreement wi th a number of Japanese consumer electronics companies to manufacture the ne w video recorder and believes his dream of creating an international electro nic video store which never runs out of even the most popular films is now n ot far off. New video recorders with the EMC function are expected to become available by November 1994 and would cost around Dollars 500 although the c ost could drop to Dollars 350 in mass production. Research carried out in Ja pan showed that consumers understood the concept of video-on-demand and said they preferred it to the existing subscription channels. While video-on-dem and is likely to be one of the big themes of the next few years, and a possi ble financial driving force for the introduction of digital compression tech nology into the home, another will be the way US media companies are determi ned to drive their films and programmes around the world using all available and emerging technologies. Soon hardly anywhere on earth will be entirely s afe from at least the potential of tuning in to cheerful American voices rev ealing the latest news or introducing the oldest films. Mr Ted Turner's Cabl e News Network and CNN Inter- national proudly boasts that it is already on 12 satellites around the world, soon to be 13, and that only some parts of G reenland and Antarctica are still deprived of 24-hours-a-day television news . Mr Turner may have been the first to take his channel international, follo wed by Viacom's MTV, but more US channels are now trying to break out of the large but increasingly saturated American market and a number of significan t US media companies are buying into regional satellite channels or investin g in the setting up of new channels. There are also growing moves to create integrated media businesses that create film and television programmes in Ho llywood and distribute them through everything from video to satellite and c able around the world. Increasingly, the name of the game is the creation an d exploitation of intellectual property rights, and the more universal the a ppeal the better. One of the most recent examples of the drive towards integ ration was Mr Turner's purchase in August of two independent Hollywood produ ction companies, New Line and Castle Rock, in a deal worth Dollars 672m. 'I had to (buy into Hollywood). No question. I have more than 3,000 old movies (from the MGM library) and no new movies except television movies. If you ar e going to be a big player you have got to have the product,' says Mr Turner who began transmitting two of his channels, TNT, based on old films and som e sport and the Cartoon Network to Europe in the form of a single 24-hours a day channel. The integrated channel schedules cartoons during the day and f ilms at night. Mr Turner did not quite get the welcome he might have expecte d in Europe. Although the UK gave the channel a licence, which ought to have given it clearance throughout Europe under existing conventions and directi ves, both the French and Belgian governments blocked its entry to their cabl e networks because it did not have enough European content. As Belgium is vi rtually completely cabled, it was a serious blow to the channel. According t o the EC Television Without Frontiers directive, which came into force two y ears ago, satellite channels should have majority EC content where practicab le. And although it is difficult to see how a film channel could be run with out a considerable proportion of Hollywood movies, even an old movie channel , attitudes on the issue of American 'cultural imperialism' appear to be har dening. The UK, which has traditionally taken a rather laissez-faire approac h to the issue of European content, although much less so to issues of eroti cism or pornography beamed in by satellite, is starting to take a firmer lin e on content. Mr Peter Brooke, secretary of state for National Heritage, tol d the Royal Television Society's Cambridge convention last month that maybe it was time for Sky One, the general entertainment channel that has just rec ently been scrambled and included in the Sky Multi-Channel subscription pack age, to start thinking about including more UK-made programmes. The channel relies heavily on programmes bought in Los Angeles. Mr Sumner Redstone, the Viacom chairman, has not yet seemed to run into cultural resistance to his c hannels. He also plans to take Viacom channels - Nickelodeon, the children's channel and Nick-at-Nite and VH-1 around the world. He has a vision of an i nternational children's channel, created with local partners that would give 'a chance of an international lobby for the kind of world we want to live i n'. Nickelodeon has already arrived in the UK, with Nick- at-Nite and VH-1 f ollowing early next year. Mr Rupert Murdoch has also recently been spelling out his international ambitions, linked with the Dollars 525m purchase of St ar TV and with it potential entrance to the Asian television market. 'It's a global dream that you never quite dared have, and suddenly it's there,' he says. The global dream is not universally shared in the region. The Malaysia n government has already expressed reservations about Mr Murdoch's intention s. Partly maybe to answer such criticisms, Mr Murdoch is planning to create separate Star services for India and China, and possibly a third Star at a l ater stage for the 200m people of Indonesia to reflect, at least partly, the enormous cultural and linguistic differences that are involved. The News Co rporation chairman makes no bones about wanting to take his UK channels, suc h as Sky Sport, around the world. 'We will also take Sky News around the wor ld. There will be a parallel international service and Sky News as we know i t today will be for Britain and Europe,' Mr Murdoch says, adding that he pla ns to work with local partners for the international service in different pa rts of the world. 'Maybe Kerry Packer in Australia,' he muses. An increasing ly tense battle is now likely between international television news organisa tions. The well- entrenched CNN, already facing growing opposition from BBC World Service Television, is likely also to come up against competition from Mr Murdoch's Sky News. However, Mr Ted Turner of CNN is irritated at all th e publicity that Mr Murdoch has had for his international news plans, which tend to put in the shade the fact that CNN is already there and has already done what Mr Murdoch is only hoping to do. Mr Murdoch in turn has long had t he ambition to bring to the occupants of hotel rooms around the world news t hat is less obviously American than CNN - or at least less American than CNN used to be before CNN International was developed. Independent Television N ews of the UK is not yet a contender in the international television news ba ttle but would like to become a player. Reuters, the international news and financial information group, now an ITN shareholder alongside Mr Michael Gre en's Carlton Communications, is making no secret of its television ambitions . Given Reuters' expertise in business and financial reporting some sort of television business channel might make sense. The latest American arrival on the European media scene is NBC, the US network which runs cable channels i n the US including a business news channel, and which has been looking at th e pan-European market for some time. NBC has bought a 75 per cent stake in S uperChannel the general entertainment satellite channel which has access to around 60m cable television homes in western and eastern Europe. The deal is believed to be worth around Pounds 40m. Set up originally by a consortium o f ITV companies, apart from Thames Television which declined to take part, t he channel made significant losses until it was sold to the Marcucci family of Italy with Mr Richard Branson's Virgin group retaining a minority stake f or only Pounds 9 and the assumption of around Pounds 2.5m in debt. So far ne arly Pounds 25m has been invested in the channel which has specialised in ni che programming because it could not afford the big new movies or top exclus ive sports events. As the Marcucci family move on to specialise in inter- na tional television production, the resources of NBC, both in programming and finance, could make all the difference to the outlook for SuperChannel. Time Warner has also been trying to maximise revenues from its programme library by taking its Home Box Office around the world. There have been pay-televis ion joint ventures in Venezuela, Hungary, New Zealand and Scandinavia and th rough HBO Ole, the first Spanish-speaking movie and entertainment service av ailable to all of Spanish-speaking Latin America and the Caribbean. Other US investors in the UK include Cox, the Atlanta-based media company, which has taken stakes in two new sat- ellite channels, UK Gold, based on the librari es of the BBC and Thames Television and UK Living, a channel devoted to wome n's interests. Inter- national Family Entertain- ment, a company linked with American television evangelist Pat Robertson, has bought TVS, the ITV compa ny that lost its south of England franchise and brought The Family Channel, its successful American cable channel, to the UK. The strongest European opp osition to growing American dominance of the international television news a irwaves is coming from BBC World Service Television, which was finally launc hed two years ago after long delays. The British govern- ment, which funds B BC World Service Radio, refused to contribute any money to set up the servic e and forbade the BBC from using licence fee money to fund it. In the end, a modest sum was found from the sale of subscriptions in Europe for an existi ng BBC general entertainment channel to get World Service Television under w ay. Because of shortage of funds, Mr Chris Irwin, its chief executive, has h ad to proceed via a series of self-financing joint ventures. The service is now available in Africa and on cable networks in Canada. Next spring it will launch in Japan in a 10-year deal worth Pounds 150m, and there are hopes of getting into the US market. But perhaps the greatest impact that BBC World Service Television has had so far is in Asia, where it is delivered from Lon don to 38 countries as one of five channels, including MTV, on the Star sate llite system. In India alone, World Service Television has more than 13m reg ular viewers, according to independent research earlier this year. Indians a re able to watch the BBC 6 O'Clock News live in the evening and Newsnight, t he BBC evening current affairs programme, is shown the next morning. The BBC has recently signed a deal with Intelsat to use digital compression to help add the US and Latin American to its existing markets. Mr Tom Johnson, pres ident of CNN, recognises that BBC World Service Television is very professio nal and represents growing compet- ition. However, he cites its lack of fina nce as one obvious weakness. In 1992 CNN in all its forms had total revenues of Dollars 535.6m and made operating profits of Dollars 150m. The Murdoch p urchase of control of Star has caused uncertainty over the future of BBC Wor ld Service Television in Asia but Mr Murdoch has stated unambiguously that h e will honour the BBC's 10-year contract with Star. It probably makes good b usiness sense for him to do so because the BBC name is well regarded, partic - ularly in India, and the service is believed to bring in a signif- icant p roportion of the advert- ising revenues of the Star system. In all this brav e new world, the UK is playing a key role, not because of the size of the ma rket but because of the number of things going on there. To a considerable e xtent North American media and telephone companies view the UK as a laborato ry whose results merit careful study. It is the only place in the world wher e telecommun- ications deregulation has gone so far as to allow cable com- p anies to offer a full range of telephone services in compet- ition to the PT T. As a result, most of the regional Bell operating companies from the US ha ve piled into the UK cable market, partly because they see a good business o pportunity but also to learn about cable in the hope that a similar pattern of deregulation is not far off in the US. At the moment, US telephone compan ies cannot run cable television franchises in their own telephone operating areas although they can buy systems elsewhere in the US. The issue is headin g for the US legal system. Bell Atlantic recently won a local ruling in Alex andria, Virginia, allowing it to start up a cable system there in competitio n with Jones, a large cable operator, a decision that is being appealed agai nst. The other interesting factor about the UK is the scale of the satellite subscription business that has been built up by BSkyB. Mr Murdoch, who owns 50 per cent, quite simply describes it as the leading satellite company in the world and points to an important lesson learned in the UK which is influ encing his decision- making in other parts of the world such as Asia. 'There is no question we have shown here (in the UK) that first in gets the market ,' he says. Canal Plus, the French pay television company is probably still bigger, but it enjoys one enormous advantage - control over conventional tel evision frequencies so that it can broadcast over normal land-based transmit ters. On the face of it, cable television's performance in the UK would give snails and tortoises a good reputation. After 10 years of effort, according to the latest official figures to the beginning of July, only 658,884 homes were connected to any form of cable and that involves a broad definition in cluding blocks of flats connected to an antenna and old-fashioned television relay systems upgraded to carry at least a basic selection of the new satel lite channels. The total for the modern broadband or multi-channel systems w as 473,415 although the symbolic 500,000 figures was expected to be passed s ometime this month. When it comes to broadband homes offering the full range of cable programme services, the total number takes on an even more pessimi stic hue compared with the number of homes in the UK which could subscribe i f they wanted to. That total by July 1 stood at 2,327,257, which meant that precisely 1,853,842 householders whose homes are passed by a cable network h ave decided not to subscribe so far. This gives a disappointing penetration rate -the ratio of those subscribing to those who could subscribe - of 20.3 per cent. Indeed, the official quarterly bulletin from the Independent Tele vision Commission carries the headline: 'Cable Growth Slows In 1993'. The re port begins: 'The increase in the number of broadband cable subscribers slow ed down in the first half of 1993, apparently as recessionary factors genera ted higher rates of disconnection.' This meant that although there was a net increase in subscribers in the first six months of 1993 of 33,000 because o f faster rates of building cable networks, the average take-up rate dropped to levels last seen in early 1992. And all this has been happening at a time when Sky Television has been dominating the headlines with its 18-channel p ackage and more on the way. At Pounds 19.99 a month, including three movie c hannels and a sports channel, it appears superficially, at least, to be so m uch better value than cable. Quite apart from the aesthetics of having a dis h on the wall, whether flat, see-through or not, this illusion is at least p artly created because satellite viewers have to buy or rent the receiving eq uipment. With cable, it is all included. Although the difference may be more apparent than real, it does not make cable's marketing task any easier. Aga inst such a background, why are a growing number of big banks getting excite d about backing cable while their lack of interest in earlier years blocked the development of cable? Why does Mr Richard Woollam of the CTA find his lu nch diary clogged with engagements to expound on the newly discovered virtue s of cable? The change can partly be explained in two words - cable telephon y. Cable television as a business selling just more television channels alwa ys seemed like a long haul in the UK, where unlike the early days of the ind ustry in the US good quality television signals carrying good quality progra mmes from the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are almost universally available. But a dd telephone services and the economics are transformed. 'We are not a cable TV business. We are an entertainment and information and communications bus iness,' says Mr Michael Turner, chairman of the CTA and chief executive of S outhwestern Bell International, whose franchises cover a total of 1.14m home s in the midlands and north-west of England. The number of cable telephone s ubscribers is still small - around 200,000 - but the rate of increase and th e effect on the revenues of cable operators are quite dramatic. Three years ago Mercury Communications supplied 200 telephone lines a month to the cable industry and revenues were in hundreds of thousands of pounds. The rate is now running at more than 20,000 lines a month and between Pounds 60m and Pou nds 70m is expected to be generated at the retail level this year. By the en d of September just under 250,000 telephone lines had been handed over to ca ble franchises, though not all of these are yet in use. There are now 32 cab le franchises in the UK offering telephone services, compared with 17 a year ago and many operators are installing their own switches. In August Mercury announced marketing and operations agreements with the largest cable operat ors, including Encom, General Cable, Nynex, CableComms, Southwestern Bell, T eleWest Communications and Videotron. Nynex, with franchises in the Brighton , Poole and Worthing areas, is providing telephone links for public services in the region. 'We have tied together Hampshire police stations and we are working on ambulance stations and other things,' says Mr Peter Lynch, market ing director of Nynex, the telephone company for New York and New England. M r Alan Bates, managing director of Jones Cable, with interests in more than 1m homes under franchise including Aylesbury and Leeds, is very clear about the benefits of telephone services. 'We thought this year that 40 per cent o f our revenues would come from telephony and 60 per cent from cable. We have just passed through where it's 50-50 and we are fast heading for 60-40 the other way around. To double your revenue on a margin additional cost (to ins tall telephony) is phenomenal,' he says. The joint cable television/telephon y package is much easier to sell than cable TV alone, Mr Bates emphasises. T he English middle classes, he believes, habitually lie about what they watch on television and find it difficult to buy anything so vulgar as cable. But discounts of up to 20 per cent are something they understand, even though t here is the inconvenience for domestic subscribers of changing their number. 'Then they say we'll take cable for the children,' laughs Mr Bates. The spr ead of telephone services on cable network will increasingly pose competitio n for BT, which the national operator will find it difficult to meet. The ca ble operators are local and geographically dispersed and each individual net work can offer different packages of discounts, including free local calls i n some areas. A BT price cut to tackle small cable discounters in a few hund red thousand homes would have to be offered nationally, costing the company millions of pounds. The emerging importance of telecommunications has led to a measure of consolidation in the industry as the well-funded American phon e companies, which like to boast that they understand all about 'burying loa ds of money in a hole in the ground', have been buying up franchises that co me on the market. For example, in March Nynex bought three franchises in Gre ater Manchester, Bolton and Derby that were previously held by Pacific Teles is, which decided to concentrate its investment thrust on mobile communicati ons and began to withdraw from the UK cable market. More recently TeleWest, the joint venture between Mr Malone's TCI and Bell West became the largest c able operator in the UK when it bought seven Scottish cable franchises owned by Post-Newsweek Cable. Up and down the country, a rough pattern is beginni ng to emerge in cable sales: that of every 100 sales the cable industry make s, 70 people will take the combined television and telephone service, 20 peo ple cable television only and 10 people telephone only. They are percentages that certainly impressed Mr Bates's bankers recently to enable him to negot iate what was seen as a landmark financing deal for cable. NatWest Markets, the corporate finance arm of National Westminster Bank, arranged a Pounds 15 2.5m financing for the 'construction and operation of a cable television and telecommunications franchise' in Leeds. The money is made up of Pounds 77.5 m in equity and Pounds 75m in non-recourse finance. It is the first 'fully-f unded' cable deal concluded before construction actually begins, although of course performance thresholds are built in. Five UK investors are involved including Cable & Wireless, the parent of Mercury Communications, although m ost of the money came from US investors such as Capital Cities/ABC and Paine Webber and the debt was underwritten by the Bank of Nova Scotia and other b anks. Even bigger cable finance deals are in the pipeline. It is believed th at Citibank is in the process of raising Pounds 250m for the UK cable franch ises of Nynex. If the deal goes through, it could further improve the invest ment climate for cable, though the bankers will be watching carefully to see that their positive analysis on the prospects for cable works out in realit y. Mr Michael Turner is not downhearted at the slowdown in cable subscribers . 'It's been a mixed year for cable, but if you look at the fundamentals of the business there has been record investment, record build. Yes, the penetr ation rate is coming down a bit. We're disappointed but not really concerned . We are convinced it will come back, that the market is going to buy the pr oduct,' the CTA chairman says. This year a total of Pounds 750m will be inve sted in the construction of cable networks in the UK, more than in any previ ous three- or four-year period. But what if the British people simply do not want multi-channel television or at least the programmes now being offered? Many of the big cable operators have carried out their own consumer researc h just to make sure that there is not an invisible, insuperable barrier. 'I don't think there is anything in the culture of the British people that says that over time they won't want multi-channel,' says Mr Bates. And even if a dults, were to behave in that 'perverse' way, then the children will certain ly understand cable and the choice it offers. Another straw in the wind is t he fact that not all cable operators are performing so very modestly. In Bir mingham, for instance, the penetration rate is running at 33.5 per cent - an d anything over 30 per cent, bankers say, is definitely a business because o f the cash flows generated. If only the rest could lift their game to the Bi rmingham level, cable enthusiasts say. To Mr Turner the real challenge does not come from BSkyB but from the 75 per cent of the population who do not ha ve multi-channel television of any kind. BSkyB itself has recently taken an enormous risk in moving towards a nearly total subscription package. The onl y BSkyB exception is the loss-making Sky News. On the day Sky Television was launched in February 1989, Mr Murdoch made it clear that other services apa rt from movies could be encrypted, or scrambled and charged for on a monthly basis. There is a large risk in charging for a service that has previously been 'free'. Last year Sky started to charge for its sports channel and this autumn Sky One disappeared from the gaze of those not prepared to pay. Mr M urdoch himself feared there could have been uproar at the decision to charge but, against all the odds, if anything the opposite has happened. Satellite dish sales started to rise after a period of slower growth. Partly this was the result of massive publicity and partly it was a response to carefully s tructured special deals and discounts. Perhaps above all else, the pill of h aving to pay was sugared by the arrival of new non-Murdoch channels in the p ackage so that, at least by the beginning of next year, there will be a tota l of 18 channels under the Sky marketing banner at a total monthly cost to t he consumer of Pounds 19.99. Twelve scrambled channels ranging from Discover y and The Family Channel to UK Gold, which draws on the programme libraries of the BBC and Thames Television and Country Music Television, are available in the Multi-Channel package for Pounds 6.99 a month - the equivalent of th e basic tier of channels in the cable television package. Paradoxically, the simple subscription package may be easier to sell than the previous mixture , where some channels were only on subscription and others were free. 'Peopl e understand the subscription package. It's easier to sell,' says Mr Paul Mc Mullan, of East Antrim Electricals, who has sold satellite equipment since t he early days of Sky Television. The logic of the move to subscription is un assailable in financial terms, as long as Sky can retain most of its existin g viewers and start to build again. As each new satellite channel becomes av ailable the audience for the new media, as opposed to the traditional broadc asters, is further fragmented. The smaller the audience, however good the ta rgeting or the demographics, the less significant that audience is for adver tisers. Although there will inevitably will be elements of cross-over, the m ost obvious way to maximise the choice available to the public is for it to be funded by three separate streams of revenue - a licence fee, advertising and subscription. The new subscription revenues could transfer BSkyB's balan ce sheet, although the company will have to be sure that the subscribers are being given value for money and not progressively milked once they are 'hoo ked' on the extra choice. Viewers have been persuaded to pay a monthly subsc ription for a sports channel that used to be free, largely as a result of th e exclusive Pounds 305m deal to show live premier league games. But if Sky w ere to take some of the best games out of the existing package and charge an additional pay-per-view fee, that might turn out to be a step too far for m any of their customers. Sky has said it will launch a pay-per-view service n ext year, possibly at the same time as a second sports channel begins broadc asting although little has been said about what sort of events will be offer ed on the pay-per-view menu. BSkyB has made considerable financial progress in the past two years, and at least at the operational level, is now making more than Pounds 2m a week although there is still a pre-tax loss of about P ounds 70m a year when notional interest payments on the Pounds 1.7bn investe d in the project are included. Next year, the money will start to flow back to the owners of the consortium who have so far not actually paid each other the interest on their loans to the venture. Apart from News Corporation and Pearson, the main investors are the Granada Group and Chargeurs of France. Compared with the enormous losses of the past, the figures that Mr Richard B rooke, BSkyB chief financial officer, announced for the year to June 1993 we re remarkable. The operating profit of Pounds 61.5m represented a Pounds 108 m turnaround on the previous year and turnover was up by 63 per cent to Poun ds 380m - 80 per cent of it coming from subscription revenue. In addition, t he satellite consortium had needed no new funding from shareholders since Ma y 1992 and Pounds 34m of available funding had not had to be drawn down. It seemed like a turning point of some significance and, executives promised, t he improving trends were continuing into the current financial year. Mr Gary Davey, the BSkyB deputy managing director, pointed out last month that 100, 000 new movie channel subscriptions had been signed up in August alone, taki ng the total of movie subscriptions past 2m for the first time. BSkyB is fac ing a growing problem of pirate subscription cards. News Corporation's Video Crypt system, based on a microchip embedded in a cards rather like a telepho ne card which 'unlocks' the scrambled pictures, was claimed to be pirate-pro of. In fact, pirate cards are being openly advertised and sold in Scandinavi a and Germany, and the trend is starting to spread to the UK. One company in England is already offering pirate cards for sale at Pounds 200 in what amo unts to an unofficial subscription service of its own. If BSkyB changes the codes in the chip, the company offers to provide a replacement for an additi onal fee of Pounds 30. Like many transactions involving intellectual propert y, it is apparently not illegal to offer such cards for sale although it is illegal for consumers to use them. If the number of pirate cards in circulat ion were ever to become substantial, it would damage BSkyB in two signif- ic ant ways. In the UK piracy would simply mean the loss of revenue or potentia l revenue but in continental Europe the problem could be even more significa nt. The satellite company buys only the UK subscription rights to Holly- woo d films which are sold by the studios on a country-by- country basis. The ag reements with BSkyB are conditional on the films not being available all ove r Europe. Widespread piracy, unless tackled, could call vital film contracts into question. Overall, BSkyB was in more than 3.5m homes by the begin- nin g of September including 2.57m homes with satellite dishes, according to BAR B. Yet although the new channels are available in more than 15 per cent of U K homes, it has to be emphasised that their performance in terms of audience s and ratings has been modest. It is a rare satellite programme that has bee n able to assemble an audience of 1m and few apart from The Simpsons have ac hieved it. Despite the rapid growth in the number of channels avail- able, t he new media still account for less than a third of total viewing in homes w hich can receive satellite channels. This ratio looks like staying fairly co nstant, or only increasing slightly, as more channels are added. This sugges ts that satellite channels, at least at their present stage of development, will have to content them- selves with sharing a finite amount of viewing ti me and rely instead for growth in getting their services into an increasing number of homes. For instance, in March, before the latest burst of new chan nels on the Astra satellite such as Bravo, Discovery, Nickelodeon, the Famil y Channel, TNT/Cartoon Network and UK Living, the official BARB figures show that the non-terrestrial channels took 29.4 per cent of viewing in cable an d satellite homes. For the week ending September 19 with the new channels on stream, the total satellite share from more than 15 channels had risen only to 31 per cent - virtually the same as that achieved by the BBC with its tw o channels in new media homes. It is, of course, early days for the new chan nels in the BSkyB package but according to BARB the average weekly viewing t o Bravo in cable and satellite homes was 10 min- utes, one minute ahead of N ickelodeon, although the Children's Channel was more successful at 13 minute s. The Family Channel was watched for an average seven minutes and UK Living for five minutes. This compared with an average 7 hours 23 minutes for ITV and even 1 hour 38 minutes for Channel 4 in cable and satellite homes. Zenit h Media, Saatchi & Saatchi's media buying arm, believes that by the year 200 3 satellite's share of viewing in satellite homes will, at 32.3 per cent, ha ve hardly moved at all. Increased penetration for cable and satellite will e nable the new media channels to account for 17 per cent of total television in all homes by 2003 compared with their 1993 figure of 5.2 per cent. More c ompetition could yet be on the way in the UK television market. All hopes of establishing a national Channel 5 have not yet been abandoned. Following th e decision last December by the Independent Television Commission to reject the only bid from a consortium led by Thames Television, mainly on the groun ds of inadequate shareholder commitment, the whole issue is being reviewed t his autumn. The ITC has called for expressions of interest by October 15 in three options: A national channel capable of reaching 74 per cent of the pop ulation, very similar to the one originally advertised. A much more local ci ty-based television service, a concept that would need legislation to implem ent. Use of the Channel 5 frequencies as part of an overall plan to introduc e digital television. The ITC has made it clear that the UK could have as ma ny as 100 television services if the existing four national channels were al so to move to digital. In practice, the ITC concedes, at least 10 years' not ice would have to be given before ending existing broadcasts in PAL and ther e would have to be 'simulcasting' - broadcasting the existing main channels in both PAL and digital. In most parts of the country this would still allow the introduction of new digital channels. There could be as many as 20 new channels in some areas although the number would be much fewer in the south and south-east, where the spectrum is relatively crowded. The ITV companies, still coming to terms with the effects of competitive tenders for their new franchises, are now debating what extra services could be offered to persua de consumers to buy the necessary decoders. There are also suggestions that the new digital television services could effectively be funded by giving ov er part of the spectrum to the running of a digital communication system for industry and finance. Despite the technological attractions of the endless choice being offered by digital, a number of serious players are still inter ested in running Channel 5 as a conventional television channel. The big adv antage is that unlike most of the ITV companies, the channel would not have to pay a percentage of its advertising revenue to the government and a small bid - Thames offered the minimum Pounds 1,000 a year -would be enough to w in the franchise. The main disadvantage is that any successful applicant wil l have to pay for the retuning of millions of video recorders at present tun ed in to the frequencies Channel 5 would use. Across Europe the new media, p articularly cable, have been making considerable progress. According to the 11th annual study of the European cable industry by CIT Research, the market research group specialising in communications, at the beginning of this yea r 68m out of western Europe's 152m television households had either cable te levision or a communal system fed by a satellite dish. A total of 30m homes were connected to cable networks, up from 26m the previous year. About 40 pe r of Europe's cable homes are in Germany, where the Bundespost's Telekom div ision has been pursuing a vigorous building policy, with 30 per cent in the Low Countries and the rest elsewhere. CIT believes that western European vie wers spent nearly Ecu4bn on cable television in 1992 including pay TV revenu es - up 24 per cent on 1991. 'Given that Europe is still in the teeth of rec ession, the industry can congratulate itself,' CIT concludes. By June this y ear, 12.8m German households were connected to cable networks, most of them in the western Lander. There are also plans to spend DM55bn on improving tel ecommunications in the east, DM3.5bn of which will be devoted to cable. In F rance cable is at last beginning to grow steadily, although cable subscriber s still account only for 5.5 per cent of the country's 20.6m television hous eholds, according to CIT. The sixth Pan-European Television Audience Researc h survey, published earlier this year, was based on viewing figures from cab le homes in Flanders and five European countries: Denmark, Germany, Netherla nds, Norway and Sweden. It showed that the viewing of commercial channels tr ansmitted by cable or satellite continued to expand at the expense of the st ate-owned and public service sector. The audience shares of channels funded wholly or in part by licence fee now ranges from 32.1 per cent in Flanders t o 56.3 per cent in Denmark. In Germany, Europe's largest cable and satellite dish market, the public broadcasters achieved a 32.6 per cent share in new media homes, although this dropped to 25.5 per cent among the 16-34 age grou p. The choice available somewhere in Europe continues to grow with more than 100 services available over both cable and satellite, not all subscription based. Eurospsort continues to provide Europe-wide competition for the UK-ba sed Sky Sports and Euronews, the multilingual news and information service b acked by more than a dozen public service broadcasters, is increasing its re ach after a difficult birth at the beginning of this year. By the end of Aug ust the channel was reaching 11m cable and communal dish homes and, with the help of rebroadcasting on conventional transmitters, was available in a tot al of 43m homes. One of the most interesting uses of satellite television is to provide special services for ethnic minorities all over Europe. There ar e programming segments for Japanese and Chinese minorities, while TV Asia, t he Asian channel on the Astra satellite, has expanded to 18 hours a day with programmes ranging from Indian and Pakistani films to daily news coverage i n five Asian languages. MBC, the Arabic language television station based in London, recently reached an agreement to co-operate with the Arab Network o f America, the main Arabic language network of the US. There will be program me exchanges and joint productions. MBC - the Middle East Broadcasting Centr e - was launched more than two years ago and broadcasts its service all over Europe, North Africa and the Arabian Gulf. Back at the former studios of TV -am Mr Bill Roedy, chief executive of MTV Europe, insists: 'We don't take ou rselves too seriously. It's only entertainment after all.' He is right, of c ourse, about the ultimate significance of the new media and the technologica l driving force behind it - except that the new international channels will have growing cultural influence and new media empires will be created as pub lic service monopolies give way, at least in part, to an era of greater choi ce and intensified competition. Countries:- USZ Unit ed States of America. GBZ United Kingdom, EC. XAZ World. Industries:- P7841 Video Tape Rental. P7812 Motion Picture a nd Video Production. P4841 Cable and Other Pay Television Services. Types:- MKTS Market shares. TECH Services & Services use. CMMT Comment & Analysis. The Financial Times London Page IV ============= Transaction # 185 ============================================== Transaction #: 185 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:48 Selec. Rec. #: 36 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-10968 _AN-CBDCGAAXFT 920 204 FT 04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year - after low-birth Year of Sheep By YVONNE PRESTON AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar Year of the Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch ina's family planners trying to hold the birth rate down. Babies born in the Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been considered ill-fa ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of bitterness and tr agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it contributed to an increased incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate last year. Forty per cent of t he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in 1990 - the more fav ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992, the Legal Daily news paper reported. Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij ing gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice. A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl e were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'. If the figures reflect delay ed births on the part of deeply superstitious peasants and even urban parent s seeking to maximise the life chances of the one child they are permitted, the number of births could soar in this auspicious Year of the Monkey. The C hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a 12-ye ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially favourable b ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also years of the roo ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake. Monkeys are blessed; they ha ve a great ability to make money, are wise, sociable and witty; it would be hard to find a bigger success story than a monkey in a monkey's year . . . o r so the legend goes. Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe cially when couples can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve ning News published a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep calling the superstition a lot of feudal nonsense. It said many successful and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the Sheep, and quoted mortal ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949 revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1 979 - to show there had been no increase in the number of deaths during thos e years. Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse lves pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to have babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s ee their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti ng a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family. Prof Yan, former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born this year will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and create pro blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools, and later i n finding jobs. It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C hinese that the old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the m out, though not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli eve nine out of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy. In the often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer than 5 0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the capital, nev er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed on from one generation to another. China's worried family planners remain fearful of the consequences of being unable to convince the population that all babies bor n under the same symbol are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put your faith in science, Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey: Think of the problems it will create for the next generation. The Financial Times London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 186 ============================================== Transaction #: 186 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:53 Selec. Rec. #: 36 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-10968 _AN-CBDCGAAXFT 920 204 FT 04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year - after low-birth Year of Sheep By YVONNE PRESTON AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar Year of the Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch ina's family planners trying to hold the birth rate down. Babies born in the Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been considered ill-fa ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of bitterness and tr agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it contributed to an increased incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate last year. Forty per cent of t he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in 1990 - the more fav ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992, the Legal Daily news paper reported. Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij ing gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice. A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl e were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'. If the figures reflect delay ed births on the part of deeply superstitious peasants and even urban parent s seeking to maximise the life chances of the one child they are permitted, the number of births could soar in this auspicious Year of the Monkey. The C hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a 12-ye ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially favourable b ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also years of the roo ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake. Monkeys are blessed; they ha ve a great ability to make money, are wise, sociable and witty; it would be hard to find a bigger success story than a monkey in a monkey's year . . . o r so the legend goes. Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe cially when couples can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve ning News published a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep calling the superstition a lot of feudal nonsense. It said many successful and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the Sheep, and quoted mortal ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949 revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1 979 - to show there had been no increase in the number of deaths during thos e years. Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse lves pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to have babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s ee their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti ng a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family. Prof Yan, former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born this year will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and create pro blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools, and later i n finding jobs. It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C hinese that the old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the m out, though not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli eve nine out of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy. In the often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer than 5 0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the capital, nev er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed on from one generation to another. China's worried family planners remain fearful of the consequences of being unable to convince the population that all babies bor n under the same symbol are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put your faith in science, Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey: Think of the problems it will create for the next generation. The Financial Times London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 187 ============================================== Transaction #: 187 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:54 Selec. Rec. #: 36 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT921-10968 _AN-CBDCGAAXFT 920 204 FT 04 FEB 92 / Feudal nonsense and monkey business r ing in New Year: China's family planners fear baby boom in auspicious year - after low-birth Year of Sheep By YVONNE PRESTON AN ANCIENT Chinese superstition that babies born in the lunar Year of the Monkey, beginning today, will enjoy good luck is bad news for Ch ina's family planners trying to hold the birth rate down. Babies born in the Year of the Sheep, which has just ended, have always been considered ill-fa ted, especially girls who are said to be born to a life of bitterness and tr agedy. The superstition is so powerfully held it contributed to an increased incidence of abortion and a lower birth rate last year. Forty per cent of t he births which should have occurred in 1991 occurred in 1990 - the more fav ourable Year of the Horse - or were put off until 1992, the Legal Daily news paper reported. Even city maternity hospitals were 'idle', according to Beij ing gynaecologist and obstetrician Professor Yan Renying, who told the China Population Newsletter she had seen nothing like it in 50 years of practice. A low birth rate means a good job has been done, she said, but not if peopl e were waiting to have a lucky 'little monkey'. If the figures reflect delay ed births on the part of deeply superstitious peasants and even urban parent s seeking to maximise the life chances of the one child they are permitted, the number of births could soar in this auspicious Year of the Monkey. The C hinese calendar, based on the phases of the moon, gives each year of a 12-ye ar cycle an animal symbol. The Year of the Dragon is especially favourable b ecause of its association with emperors, and there are also years of the roo ster, dog, pig, rat, ox, tiger, hare and snake. Monkeys are blessed; they ha ve a great ability to make money, are wise, sociable and witty; it would be hard to find a bigger success story than a monkey in a monkey's year . . . o r so the legend goes. Choosing the most propitious time to have a baby, espe cially when couples can have only one, is so widespread that the Beijing Eve ning News published a long article at the beginning of the Year of the Sheep calling the superstition a lot of feudal nonsense. It said many successful and famous Chinese had been born in the Year of the Sheep, and quoted mortal ity statistics for sheep years since the 1949 revolution - 1955, 1967, and 1 979 - to show there had been no increase in the number of deaths during thos e years. Younger women who reject such 'feudal superstition' can find themse lves pressured by their mothers and mothers-in-law. 'They do not want us to have babies in the Year of the Sheep because they say girls born then will s ee their husbands die young,' said the official China Women's Journal, quoti ng a young woman who was forced to have an abortion by her family. Prof Yan, former director of Beijing's No 1 Hospital, says more babies born this year will put heavy pressure on available hospital maternity beds and create pro blems for 'little monkeys' enrolling in kindergarten or schools, and later i n finding jobs. It is obvious from the newspaper reports and from ordinary C hinese that the old beliefs die hard. The communists have failed to wipe the m out, though not for want of trying. Beijing people will tell you many beli eve nine out of 10 sheep babies are born to endure a life of tragedy. In the often quite primitive countryside the superstition flourishes. Fewer than 5 0km from Beijing there are villagers who have never been to the capital, nev er seen a foreigner, and are prey to every ancient fancy passed on from one generation to another. China's worried family planners remain fearful of the consequences of being unable to convince the population that all babies bor n under the same symbol are not necessarily destined for the same fate. Put your faith in science, Prof Yan advises. Don't rush to have a little monkey: Think of the problems it will create for the next generation. The Financial Times London Page 4 Illustration (Omitted). ============= Transaction # 188 ============================================== Transaction #: 188 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:58 Selec. Rec. #: 0 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 313 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: ============= Transaction # 189 ============================================== Transaction #: 189 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC) Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC) Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat) Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00 Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 10:53:58 Selec. Rec. #: 37 Boolean Indexes Used: 0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call # 0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title 0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject 0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item 0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf Boolean Conjunctions: Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No # Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0 # Hits: 0 Help Code: 0 # Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0 Associated Variable Length Text: FT933-7393 _AN-DHVALAC7FT 9308 21 FT 21 AUG 93 / Russia's women face a new reign of fea r: When communism fell, women looked forward to the benefits of democracy. B ut, they are now in danger of losing a fundamental right: safe, legal aborti on By LORI CIDYLO STRANGE THINGS ar e happening in post-communist Europe. When democracy supplanted communism as the dominant political system in eastern Europe, its oppressed peoples expe cted to inherit greater rights and freedoms. However, for women, democracy h as turned out to be a painful disappointment. Just four years after democrat ic revolutions transformed the cartography of the Soviet bloc, women are in danger of losing one of the fundamental rights they were guaranteed under co mmunism - the right to a safe, legal abortion. In Poland, which now ranks al ongside Ireland in having Europe's most restrictive abortion laws, abortion is allowed only in cases of rape and incest; when the mother's health is end angered; or when tests reveal serious foetal defects. In Hungary, women must go before a committee before they can seek an abortion, and women in the fo rmer East Germany must go through official counselling. Now the Russian parl iament is considering a new law which women say is a first step toward restr icting, and eventually banning, abortion in Russia. The controversial bill c ontains a clause which says that the state 'recognises' a child's 'right to life' - the most contentious aspect of the legislation - and a provision whi ch calls for granting men and women 'equal rights in deciding all issues of family life, including issues of family planning.' While supporters of the b ill insist that the latter provision is meant to enhance the rights of fathe rs in custody suits, which are largely ignored in Russia, women's rights adv ocates fear it could mean that a woman would have to obtain permission from her partner before seeking an abortion. 'If this bill is passed, the freedom of choice a woman has today will be destroyed', says Ludmila Zavadskaya, a lawyer and MP who is an outspoken critic of the proposed legislation. 'A sit uation could arise where a woman comes in for an abortion and the doctor say s to her: 'Let me see the decision of your husband'. 'I was at a conference recently and I met a lot of Polish women who are just horrified. Now it look s like we may be going in the same direction. Democracy isn't turning out th e way it was supposed to at all.' The Women's Union of Russia, a non-governm ental organisation with more than 2m members, recently protested to parliame nt about the bill. 'We consider it necessary', the women wrote, 'to preserve the present norm whereby the final decision is left to the woman . . . a wo man cannot be forced into motherhood against her will.' 'The new catch-phras e is: 'Let's return women to their natural destiny',' says Marina Baskakova, a scholar at the Gender Center in Moscow, which researches women's issues. 'But we are not in the 17th century. A woman should have the right to choose how many children she wants to have.' In her view, the proposed law would r educe women to 'biological instruments for continuing the human race.' Anoth er provision that has ignited controversy - it also appears in President Bor is Yeltsin's version of Russia's new constitution - states that the governme nt has the right to carry out a 'progressive demographic policy', a well-kno wn euphemism, women say, for reintroducing a ban on abortion. Such a law, th ey maintain, would be a throwback to the pro-natalist policies of Stalinism when motherhood was considered an obligation to the state and women could be jailed for terminating a pregnancy. In the view of Elena Yershova, a libera l MP: 'It is terrible that women in our country have to have so many abortio ns in conditions that are far from ideal. But it's better than having to hav e an illegal abortion. We already went through that. 'My mother lived her wh ole life during the time when abortions were illegal. They were also conduct ing a 'progressive demographic policy'.' The consequences of such a policy h ave been well-documented. In 1966, after the government of Romania reversed its liberal abortion policy in an attempt to create more workers for the sta te, the number of live births nearly doubled. But after just two years the r ate started to decline and death from illegal abortions soared. Opponents of the Russian bill say that it is part of a broad post-communist backlash aga inst women's rights. In a telephone interview from Brussels, Anita Pollack, a British member of the Committee on Women's Rights of the European Parliame nt, which had appealed to the Polish Parliament not to approve its anti-abor tion bill, called the Russian bill 'appalling' and 'an infringement on women 's rights.' 'One tyranny is being replaced by another', she added. 'Here in the west, we are trying to advance a woman's right to do what she wants with her body. This was always something very positive in the east . . . Now, it 's just going backwards for them.' Indeed, the proposed Russian legislation seems part of a campaign to promote traditional gender roles. Instead of all ocating resources to re-train women, who account for 70 per cent of Russia's unemployed, the bill proposes that unemployed pregnant women would stay at home and receive half the monthly minimum wage of Dollars 7.74. A monthly sa lary of Dollars 18 is considered poverty level. Such a development would onl y create a poor female underclass, women say. It seems paradoxical, at first , that a backlash against women's rights could occur in newly-democratic nat ions in the throes of revolutionary political and economic change. But there are various factors at work. One reason is that a new heterogeneity has per meated societies that were formerly one-party states. 'Before, we were a mon olithic society', says Elena Yershova. 'Now we have everything - leftist ext remists, right-wingers, centrists and even religious fundamentalists who sup port a ban on abortion.' Greater religious freedom has played a central role in the permutation of abortion policy in eastern Europe. The church, once c onsigned to the fusty antechamber of backroom politics, is using its new-fou nd moral mandate to push through its own social plans. Abortion is increasin gly being re-examined as a moral issue - something that never happened under atheism. And the law, which once reflected communist principles, now often supports the position of the church. After the communists were ousted from P oland in 1989, banning abortion became a primary goal of the country's bisho ps. The resulting legislation was directly sponsored by the church; many leg islators who voted in favour of the law admitted they had done so as a conce ssion to Pope John Paul II. In Hungary the powerful anti-abortion crusade wh ich led to the new law in that country was also spearheaded by the Roman Cat holic Church. However, in Russia atheism is still entrenched. Unlike Poland, where 95 per cent of the population is Roman Catholic, the church in Russia has not, so far, emerged as a major political force. Here, the factor behin d the conservative backlash appears to be nationalism. As in Hungary, the nu mber of births in Russia has not kept pace with the rising number of deaths. As a result, the abortion debate has centred on nationalist fears about dec lining population. In the first six months of 1993 there were 120,000 fewer births than in the same period last year, and 178,000 more deaths, the Russi an newspaper Moskovskaya Pravda reported on its front page recently. Althoug h demographers say it is normal for a country's birth rate to fall during bi g social upheavals, such as industrialisation, or, in this case, a shift to a market-oriented economy, Russian nationalists often speak of the declining birth rate in apocalyptic tones. Ultra-nationalist vice-president Alexander Rutskoi told a stunned audience of women at a conference that it was up to them to 'save the motherland' by having more babies. (It was supposed to be a business conference). The abortion debate is also a manifestation of what Andrei Popov, a medical researcher who has studied abortion in Russia for 13 years, calls the 'post-communist syndrome' - an eagerness to undo former po licies: a knee-jerk reaction which Popov compares with the frenzied toppling of socialist realist statues of communist heroes that began two years ago. 'If abortions were allowed under the communists, it means abortions must be bad because the communists are bad', Popov explains. 'There is a tendency to want to stamp out what we had yesterday and turn everything on its head.' B ut Popov and others insist that banning, or even restricting, abortion would have graver consequences for women in Russia than elsewhere because it has been virtually the sole means of regulating fertility for much longer. 'In e astern Europe, their abortion history didn't start until after the second wo rld war', says Popov; in Russia, abortion was first legalised under Lenin in 1920. However, since no contraception was available, by the mid-1920s there was a shortage of beds in state-run abortion clinics, and fee-charging 'com mercial' clinics opened to meet demand. By the 1960s, says Popov, a formidab le abortion lobby had emerged. Inside the upper echelons of the ministry of health, a powerful cadre of doctors, who earned handsome fees for providing 'extra' services such as anaesthesia during abortions, 'blocked the producti on and development of the contraceptive industry to protect their own intere sts.' In a propaganda campaign designed to discredit birth control pills, th e doctors warned that they could cause cancer and even madness. In true cent ralised fashion, a report detailing all the so-called side effects of oral c ontraceptives was distributed to all doctors, hospitals, and clinics across the Soviet Union. As a result, abortion became the only means of regulating fertility that was trusted. 'Everyone was sure that abortion was the best me thod and this attitude persists today, especially among older doctors', says Popov. In 1991, 3,442,395 legal abortions were performed in Russia, almost 2m more than the number of babies born in the same period. Family planning p rogrammes are just beginning to emerge, and while IUDs and condoms are avail able, they are often expensive and of sub-standard quality. Result: most peo ple are poorly informed about them. Anita Pollack says she hopes that the co ntroversy over the bill might have at least one positive effect - to help br ing women together. 'There's a whole different aspect to democracy which is ill-understood in these countries, which is that all this freedom is very we ll but you have to get together and fight for your rights. It's a painful an d difficult thing to do, and is perhaps something that's new, but it's part of the democratic process.' Russian women say they will put up a vociferous legislative fight. But even if the bill is quashed, concern among those who favour abortion will not disappear. Ironically, if Boris Yeltsin's version o f the constitution - which is generally liberal, apart from the 'progressive demographic policy' clause - is adopted, Russia's democratisation process c ould spell a setback to women's rights. Countries:- R UZ Russia, East Europe. Industries:- P9211 Courts. P9199 General Government, NEC. Types:- CMMT Comment & Analysis. GOVT Legal issues. 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