Log date 08_30_99_14:13:47
============= Transaction # 1 ==============================================
Transaction #: 1 Transaction Code: 0 (New Host Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:20:23
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 2 ==============================================
Transaction #: 2 Transaction Code: 35 (New Host Connected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:20:25
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 3 ==============================================
Transaction #: 3 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:21:27
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 5 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs for treatment of asthma})"
============= Transaction # 4 ==============================================
Transaction #: 4 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:21:32
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 5 ==============================================
Transaction #: 5 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:22:42
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-10709
_AN-EBHC6AE5FT
940
208
FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval
By DANIEL GREEN
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
Companies:-
Glaxo Holdings.
Countr
ies:-
USZ United States of America.
Industries:-
P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
Types:-
TECH P
roducts & Product use.
The Financial Times
London P
age 24
============= Transaction # 6 ==============================================
Transaction #: 6 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Long Time Cmd Complete: 14:24:07
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 7 ==============================================
Transaction #: 7 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Review Time Cmd Complete: 14:24:33
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 8 ==============================================
Transaction #: 8 Transaction Code: 2 (New Disp. Format Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:24:45
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 9 ==============================================
Transaction #: 9 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:24:46
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-10268
_AN-CBGA3AA0FT
920
207
FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i
n sight for asthma sufferers
By DELLA BRADSHAW
A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t
he way for a
new range of anti-asthma drugs.
Doctors at the Royal Brompton N
ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London
Chest Hospital have found that
cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ
rejection after transplant surg
ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic
asthma sufferers.
At the momen
t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can
produce side eff
ects.
The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce
lls in
the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f
or some
time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing
asthmatic symptoms.
The results of their research, published in this week's
The Lancet, mean
drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e
ffectively but
are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments.
Ro
yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121.
The Financial Times
London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 10 ==============================================
Transaction #: 10 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:25:03
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-10268
_AN-CBGA3AA0FT
920
207
FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i
n sight for asthma sufferers
By DELLA BRADSHAW
A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t
he way for a
new range of anti-asthma drugs.
Doctors at the Royal Brompton N
ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London
Chest Hospital have found that
cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ
rejection after transplant surg
ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic
asthma sufferers.
At the momen
t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can
produce side eff
ects.
The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce
lls in
the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f
or some
time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing
asthmatic symptoms.
The results of their research, published in this week's
The Lancet, mean
drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e
ffectively but
are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments.
Ro
yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121.
The Financial Times
London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 11 ==============================================
Transaction #: 11 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:25:40
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 12 ==============================================
Transaction #: 12 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:25:57
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-10268
_AN-CBGA3AA0FT
920
207
FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i
n sight for asthma sufferers
By DELLA BRADSHAW
A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t
he way for a
new range of anti-asthma drugs.
Doctors at the Royal Brompton N
ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London
Chest Hospital have found that
cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ
rejection after transplant surg
ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic
asthma sufferers.
At the momen
t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can
produce side eff
ects.
The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce
lls in
the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f
or some
time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing
asthmatic symptoms.
The results of their research, published in this week's
The Lancet, mean
drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e
ffectively but
are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments.
Ro
yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121.
The Financial Times
London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 13 ==============================================
Transaction #: 13 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:25:58
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-10268
_AN-CBGA3AA0FT
920
207
FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i
n sight for asthma sufferers
By DELLA BRADSHAW
A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t
he way for a
new range of anti-asthma drugs.
Doctors at the Royal Brompton N
ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London
Chest Hospital have found that
cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ
rejection after transplant surg
ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic
asthma sufferers.
At the momen
t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can
produce side eff
ects.
The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce
lls in
the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f
or some
time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing
asthmatic symptoms.
The results of their research, published in this week's
The Lancet, mean
drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e
ffectively but
are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments.
Ro
yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121.
The Financial Times
London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 14 ==============================================
Transaction #: 14 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:26:14
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-10268
_AN-CBGA3AA0FT
920
207
FT 07 FEB 92 / Technology (Worth Watching): Relief i
n sight for asthma sufferers
By DELLA BRADSHAW
A BREAKTHROUGH in the treatment of severe asthma could open up t
he way for a
new range of anti-asthma drugs.
Doctors at the Royal Brompton N
ational Heart & Lung Hospital and the London
Chest Hospital have found that
cyclosporin A, a drug used to suppress organ
rejection after transplant surg
ery, produced a marked improvement in chronic
asthma sufferers.
At the momen
t most patients need high doses or oral steroids, which can
produce side eff
ects.
The cyclosporin A drug works by suppressing the T lymphocyte immune ce
lls in
the body. Researchers at the Royal Brompton hospital have suspected f
or some
time that these white blood cells play an important role in causing
asthmatic symptoms.
The results of their research, published in this week's
The Lancet, mean
drugs could be developed in the future which treat asthma e
ffectively but
are less toxic and more selective than today's treatments.
Ro
yal Brompton Hospital: UK, 071 352 8121.
The Financial Times
London Page 10 Illustration (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 15 ==============================================
Transaction #: 15 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:26:58
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 6 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs for treatment of asthma ventolin})"
============= Transaction # 16 ==============================================
Transaction #: 16 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:27:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 8390 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 17 ==============================================
Transaction #: 17 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:27:44
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs for treatment of asthma ventolin}) and (title {glaxo}
)"
============= Transaction # 18 ==============================================
Transaction #: 18 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:27:46
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 141 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 19 ==============================================
Transaction #: 19 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:28:14
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs for treatment of asthma ventolin}) and (title {glaxo}
)"
============= Transaction # 20 ==============================================
Transaction #: 20 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:28:17
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 141 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 21 ==============================================
Transaction #: 21 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:28:25
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 22 ==============================================
Transaction #: 22 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:28:34
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs treatment asthma})"
============= Transaction # 23 ==============================================
Transaction #: 23 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:28:37
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 24 ==============================================
Transaction #: 24 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:28:57
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 25 ==============================================
Transaction #: 25 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:29:02
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 4 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs treatment asthma}) and (title {glaxo})"
============= Transaction # 26 ==============================================
Transaction #: 26 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:29:05
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 141 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 27 ==============================================
Transaction #: 27 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:29:20
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 141 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 28 ==============================================
Transaction #: 28 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:29:29
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {drugs treatment asthma})"
============= Transaction # 29 ==============================================
Transaction #: 29 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:29:31
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 8389 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 30 ==============================================
Transaction #: 30 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:29:45
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-10709
_AN-EBHC6AE5FT
940
208
FT 08 FEB 94 / UK Company News: Glaxo asthma drug wi
ns US approval
By DANIEL GREEN
Glax
o has belatedly won US approval for one of its most important products
of th
e 1990s, the inhaled asthma treatment Serevent.
The US Food and Drug Adminis
tration had been expected to approve the drug in
December and Glaxo shares f
ell when this did not happen.
After Serevent's approval yesterday, the share
s rose 15p to end the day with
a net fall of 2p at 664p.
The drug is importa
nt to Glaxo because it is a successor to Ventolin, the
long standing big sel
ler in asthma treatment. Such respiratory treatments
are second in importanc
e only to ulcer drugs in Glaxo's therapeutic
portfolio, accounting for almos
t one quarter of total sales.
The older drug has now lost much of its patent
protection and the company is
relying on Serevent to underpin its position
in the market.
The drug was approved in Europe in 1991 and should eventually
reach sales of
Pounds 350m a year, according to James Capel, the broker. In
the last full
year, Serevent sold Pounds 73m while Ventolin sales were wort
h Pounds 484m.
The drug had a setback last month, however, when Italian gove
rnment
healthcare reforms favoured Ventolin by excluding Serevent from a lis
t of
drugs the government would pay for. Glaxo lodged an appeal against the
ruling.
Companies:-
Glaxo Holdings.
Countr
ies:-
USZ United States of America.
Industries:-
P2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations.
Types:-
TECH P
roducts & Product use.
The Financial Times
London P
age 24
============= Transaction # 31 ==============================================
Transaction #: 31 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:30:02
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind Default:1
============= Transaction # 32 ==============================================
Transaction #: 32 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:30:40
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 206926 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 33 ==============================================
Transaction #: 33 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:30:53
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 34 ==============================================
Transaction #: 34 Transaction Code: 26 (Saved Recs. Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:30:59
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 35 ==============================================
Transaction #: 35 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:31:01
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 36 ==============================================
Transaction #: 36 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:32:52
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {declining birth rates}) not (title {us united states americ
a})"
============= Transaction # 37 ==============================================
Transaction #: 37 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:02
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 38 ==============================================
Transaction #: 38 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:07
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11076
_AN-EHBDUAAYFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks
By ROBERT GRAHAM
ROME
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
Countries:-
ITZ Italy, EC.
Industries
:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
The Financial Times
London P
age 3
============= Transaction # 39 ==============================================
Transaction #: 39 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:22
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11076
_AN-EHBDUAAYFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks
By ROBERT GRAHAM
ROME
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
Countries:-
ITZ Italy, EC.
Industries
:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
The Financial Times
London P
age 3
============= Transaction # 40 ==============================================
Transaction #: 40 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:25
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11076
_AN-EHBDUAAYFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks
By ROBERT GRAHAM
ROME
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
Countries:-
ITZ Italy, EC.
Industries
:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
The Financial Times
London P
age 3
============= Transaction # 41 ==============================================
Transaction #: 41 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:32
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9226
_AN-EHLDRAC0FT
9408
12
FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany
By JUDY DEMPSEY
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
- the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
CMM
T Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
London P
age 12
============= Transaction # 42 ==============================================
Transaction #: 42 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:51
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9226
_AN-EHLDRAC0FT
9408
12
FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany
By JUDY DEMPSEY
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
- the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
CMM
T Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
London P
age 12
============= Transaction # 43 ==============================================
Transaction #: 43 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:33:56
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9688
_AN-EBNCXAAEFT
9402
14
FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars
By JOHN LLOYD
M
OSCOW
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
-a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, East
Europe.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financi
al Times
London Page 1
============= Transaction # 44 ==============================================
Transaction #: 44 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:05
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9688
_AN-EBNCXAAEFT
9402
14
FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars
By JOHN LLOYD
M
OSCOW
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
-a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, East
Europe.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financi
al Times
London Page 1
============= Transaction # 45 ==============================================
Transaction #: 45 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:17
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 46 ==============================================
Transaction #: 46 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:19
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 47 ==============================================
Transaction #: 47 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:23
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 48 ==============================================
Transaction #: 48 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:26
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 49 ==============================================
Transaction #: 49 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:34:27
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 50 ==============================================
Transaction #: 50 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:35:01
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 51 ==============================================
Transaction #: 51 Transaction Code: 38 (Record Deselected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:35:08
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 52 ==============================================
Transaction #: 52 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:35:11
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 53 ==============================================
Transaction #: 53 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:35:17
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16778
_AN-EAJCTAENFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / World News in Brief: Eastern German p
opulation to fall
The population of eastern Germany will
fall by 20 per cent by 2010 because
of migration to the prosperous west and
a declining birth rate, researchers
at Humboldt University, Berlin, said.
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
Internation
al Page 1
============= Transaction # 54 ==============================================
Transaction #: 54 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:35:29
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-5793
_AN-EICAFABGFT
9409
02
FT 02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni
ng
By PAUL ADAMS
LAGOS
In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow
th, Nigeria at
90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa.
Until 1988
, when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a
national
population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled
tag as t
he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they
regarded
high population growth as healthy and saw little point in
controlling the r
ate of growth.
Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti
ng it among the
10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused
a surprise:
Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat
ed numbers
by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol
itical
clout and revenue allocation.
The United Nations Population Fund has
projected the average population
growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe
r cent (which would double the
population in about 30 years) with the birth
rate at 45 per 1,000 persons
and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in
fant mortality rate of 96).
The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child
ren per woman, while the
national policy set a target of only four. Since th
e 1970s the urban
population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t
he rate of growth
in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent.
Generalising about
Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very
diverse cultures, is
often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to
education and the rol
e of women.
In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are
far higher
than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio
n of birth
control is not widely accepted.
In the south-east there is a high
percentage of Catholics especially among
the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin
e in social services during the 1990s has
halted the progress towards family
planning clinics and universal primary
education, especially in the north,
bolstering the influence of the Koranic
schools.
Even nationally, the UN pai
nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in
Nigeria has improved little ove
r the last decade. In general, they are
considered second-class citizens not
by law but because of the social and
cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19
93 review of the national programme.
The literacy rate for women was 31 per
cent (54 per cent for men) and more
than half of all Nigerian women were mar
ried at the age of 15.
The problem of education lies not just with women. As
a prominent women's
group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f
our children per
woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that
figure.
If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out
look for
economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t
he 1970s,
the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the
level of
1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i
ncome to a
level three times that of Nigeria.
In January's budget speech the
finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented
on three years of political unc
ertainty, capital flight government
over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt
her decline in GDP growth rate from
4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in
1993. A comparison with the average
growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d
emonstrates the enormity of the task
involved in resuscitating the economy i
n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr
Kalu.
Since then strikes, shortages and a d
earth of foreign exchange have taken
the economy further down hill. Nigeria
accounts for about half of West
Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on
ce poured into Nigeria for a
better life, the chances of reverse migration l
ook more likely.
Countries:-
NGZ Nigeria, Africa.
Industries:-
P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra
ms.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financia
l Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 55 ==============================================
Transaction #: 55 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:36:54
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-13724
_AN-DAVB3AA6FT
930
122
FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply
By EDWARD MORTIMER
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
Countries:-
XMZ Africa.
Industries:-
P99 N
onclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
PEOP Personnel
News.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 56 ==============================================
Transaction #: 56 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:37:29
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-13724
_AN-DAVB3AA6FT
930
122
FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply
By EDWARD MORTIMER
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
Countries:-
XMZ Africa.
Industries:-
P99 N
onclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
PEOP Personnel
News.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 57 ==============================================
Transaction #: 57 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:37:36
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT942-10784
_AN-EEIC5AC6FT
940
509
FT 09 MAY 94 / Observer: Green surprise
Europe's 'green' parties come in all sorts of political shades, but n
one
comes near to matching the performance of the Hungarian 'greens'. Instea
d of
campaigning for population control, the Hungarian greens' TV broadcasts
call
on Hungarian men to do the 'daily triple' with their wives.
The party
does not spell out in detail what it is Hungarian men should do
three times
a day. But party officials believe it would 'increase the birth
rate and lea
d to a decline in homosexuality, prostitution and the divorce
rate'.
However
, this brave rallying cry has yet to capture the imagination of the
Hungaria
n electorate. Early returns suggest that the party has as much
chance of cap
turing a seat as Britain's Screaming Lord Sutch.
Countries:-
HUZ Hungary, East Europe.
Industries:-
P8651 P
olitical Organizations.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 17
============= Transaction # 58 ==============================================
Transaction #: 58 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:37:47
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8321
_AN-EHRD3AAZFT
9408
18
FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h
By BRONWEN MADDOX
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
Countries:-
XOZ Asia.
XCZ Latin A
merica.
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
STATS Statistics
.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 59 ==============================================
Transaction #: 59 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:11
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8321
_AN-EHRD3AAZFT
9408
18
FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h
By BRONWEN MADDOX
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
Countries:-
XOZ Asia.
XCZ Latin A
merica.
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
STATS Statistics
.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 60 ==============================================
Transaction #: 60 Transaction Code: 31 (Save Records Cancelled)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:16
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 61 ==============================================
Transaction #: 61 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:32
Selec. Rec. #: 9
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-5357
_AN-EIECYAA8FT
9409
05
FT 05 SEP 94 / Youthful Brazil faces problems of old
age: Life expectancy is rising while the birth rate is continuing to fall
By ANGUS FOSTER
Brazil looks set to e
nter the next century with 40m people 'missing'.
According to projections ma
de in the 1970s, its population would reach 212m
by the year 2000. But accor
ding to latest predictions, the total will be far
less, probably 172m.
The r
easons for the sharp slowdown in population growth are also seen in
other La
tin American countries. They include a drastic fall in female
fertility rate
s, mainly due to increased use of contraceptives and rapid
urbanisation. The
consequences, which include an ageing society and serious
strains on social
and employment needs, have not yet been addressed.
'It is the population ab
ove 65 which will grow the most in the next decades.
Brazil will have to liv
e with this phenomenon, which is well known in
developed countries, without
having overcome typical problems related to
under-development,' says demogra
phics professor Jose de Carvalho.
Brazil's population change started in the
1940s. Improved medical and basic
services led to falling mortality rates. F
ertility rates remained high until
the end of the 1960s, leading to rapid po
pulation growth and a society with
more than half its members under 20 years
old.
It also encouraged a belief, still held by many today, that Brazil was
blessed with an eternally young and fast growing population. At the first
i
nternational population conference in Bucharest in 1974, Brazil's
population
was 100m and expected to double rapidly.
But the female fertility rate - th
e average number of births per
child-bearing woman - began a startling fall
from 5.8 in 1970 to 4.3 in 1975
and 3.6 by 1984. In a recent study of Sao Pa
ulo state, Brazil's richest, the
fertility rate was 2.3, in line with some d
eveloped countries.
The fall was partly due to rising education and urbanisa
tion, as families
moved from agricultural to industrial jobs. But the main r
eason was
increased access to, and demand for, contraception. By 1986, 66 pe
r cent of
women of child-bearing age said they were using some form of contr
aceptive.
Of these, about 40 per cent had been sterilised and a further 40 p
er cent
used the pill. By 1990, contraception use had risen to 69 per cent.
These rates are high, considering Brazil is the world's largest Catholic
cou
ntry with a still conservative church hierachy. Abortion is illegal
unless t
he woman has been raped or is in medical danger.
Officially, the church prom
otes the Billings method, which teaches couples
to avoid sex during ovulatio
n. But very few couples obey, suggesting the
church is, unofficially, more l
iberal than it appears or losing its sway.
Padre Antonio Carlos Frizzo, whos
e parish is in the poor suburbs of Sao
Paulo, says couples must choose. 'If
a couple asked advice on sterilisation,
which is rare, I would take into acc
ount their economic situation and number
of children, the love between them
and whether another method is possible.
'But the couple must decide, and tha
t's something we should not and cannot
try to stop. And their decision has t
o be supported, too. This might be
criticised in the Vatican, but we are dea
ling with people in real
situations,' he says.
The increasing demand for ste
rilisation has a startling side-effect - it has
helped make Brazil the world
leader for caesarian births. These account for
roughly one in three deliver
ies, about twice the rate for England and Wales.
The reasons are complex. So
me women think caesarian section a 'modern' way
to give birth, a view hospit
als encourage, while others fear the pain
involved in vaginal deliveries. An
other reason is that when giving birth by
caesarian, a woman can request to
be sterilised at the same time and the
government pays. Outside pregnancy, w
omen have to pay to be sterilised,
usually at semi-legal clinics.
The declin
ing birth rate will transform Brazil over the coming decades.
Population gro
wth, which in the 1970s was 2.4 per cent, has fallen to 1.9
per cent and is
still declining.
Today, 35 per cent of the country's 157m population is unde
r 15 years old.
By 2020, the percentage will have fallen to 24 per cent. By
about 2040, with
a rapidly aging society, the population will reach about 22
0m and stabilise
or even fall.
This prompts the church and other anti-aborti
on groups to argue that
population control is now obsolete in Brazil, especi
ally given the country's
undeveloped agricultural land. A more stable popula
tion will also allow
better government planning. In the past, rapid populati
on growth in cities,
for example, has prevented governments developing long-
term urban plans.
But the changes will also provide some sobering challenges
. The number of
people of working age is set to grow 2.4 per cent a year for
the next
decade, adding to pressures on the economy to create jobs.
The soc
ial security system, established when the average age at death was
45, must
be reformed to cope with life expectancies of 64 and 69 for men and
women re
spectively.
The country's under-funded public health system must emphasise p
reventative
medicine if it is to cope with the increasing demands of an agei
ng
population. Finally, the growing number of elderly from smaller families
will need extra services.
Unfortunately, Brazil does not seem greatly aware
of these challenges.
Because of the government's economic problems, the 1990
census was postponed
to 1991. After further spending cuts, only basic findi
ngs are available.
Countries:-
BRZ Brazil, South Ame
rica.
Industries:-
P9431 Administration of Public Healt
h Programs.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
London Page 5
============= Transaction # 62 ==============================================
Transaction #: 62 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:36
Selec. Rec. #: 10
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT933-2679
_AN-DIQB4ADLFT
9309
17
FT 17 SEP 93 / Letters to the Editor: Total cost of c
aesarean births in UK is unnecessarily high
From Mis
s BARBARA HEWSON
Sir, Three cheers for Joe Rogaly ('Birth r
ights and wrongs', September 14).
The costs to the taxpayer of unnecessary c
aesareans is huge. In 1989, a
caesarean cost Pounds 1,123, compared with Pou
nds 363 for a normal delivery
(House of Commons Health Committee, Maternity
Services, vol 3). Leading
research shows little improvement in outcome with
a caesarean rate over 7
per cent (Enkin Keirse & Chambers, A Guide to Effect
ive Care in Pregnancy
and Childbirth).
As some 650,000 women give birth in t
he UK each year, my guess is that a
national caesarean rate of 13 per cent i
n 1992 may have increased public
expenditure by some Pounds 30m.
Judging by
the evidence heard by the health committee, the medical
profession engages i
n serious anti-competitive practices, in obstructing
women's access to midwi
ves. GPs rarely inform women of their right to a home
birth with a midwife,
referring them straight to hospital and an
obstetrician. Some obstetricians
threatened women wanting home births with
detention under the Mental Health
Act unless they agreed to a hospital
birth. Others told women that they 'nee
ded' caesareans and had to go into
hospital. There, the need for surgery van
ished: they delivered normally.
The Royal College of Obstetricians gave evid
ence that its practice was to
withhold information on risks of hospital birt
hs (though not of home
births]) from women.
Miss Barbara Hewson,
barrister,
4 Raymond Buildings,
Gray's Inn,
London WC1R 5BP
Countries:-
GBZ United Kingdom, EC.
Industries:-
P8099 Hea
lth and Allied Services, NEC.
P9431 Administration of Public Health Prog
rams.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financ
ial Times
London Page 16
============= Transaction # 63 ==============================================
Transaction #: 63 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:46
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 54452 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 64 ==============================================
Transaction #: 64 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:38:57
Selec. Rec. #: 11
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-5103
_AN-CFBA3ADDFT
9206
02
FT 02 JUN 92 / Survey of The Earth Summit (8): Popula
tion surge is a crucial issue - There may well be 10bn people on the earth b
y the year 2050
By HILARY DE BOERR
THE WORLD'S population is growing at an unprecedented rate, consuming more
r
esources than ever - nearly a billion people will be added to the planet
dur
ing the 1990s, according to the Worldwatch Institute. As the number of
poor
people is increasing, human migration is growing and renewable
resources, su
ch as water and land are increasingly under threat.
Such realities make the
population issue a crucial one for sustainable
development. There are about
5.5bn people in the world, with an average
annual increase of 97m projected
for the coming decade. International
experts agree that population growth ra
tes will have to be reduced, and the
pattern of human activities changed, if
ecological catastrophe is to be
averted.
The two go hand-in-hand because it
is not simply high population growth
rates that are threatening the environ
ment. Developed countries, with
relatively low birth rates, consume most of
the world's resources. A
Bangladeshi, for example, consumes energy equivalen
t to three barrels of oil
a year, a US citizen 55 barrels.
As Oxfam puts it:
'Industrialised countries generate significantly more
damage per person to
the global environment than do people in developing
countries.'
Sustainable
development therefore calls for a fairer distribution of the
benefits of dev
elopment among the world's people.
High population growth rates in developin
g countries - where 80 per cent of
the world's population lives - will, neve
rtheless, put even greater pressure
on the world's resources.
The higher the
population in developing countries, the higher their energy
use and polluti
on, especially as economies develop. More water is needed,
more forests are
cleared, inappropriate agricultural practices increase and
wildlife species
disappear. Population growth in developing countries is
responsible for abou
t 79 per cent of deforestation, 72 per cent of arable
land expansion and 69
per cent of the growth in livestock numbers.
Such problems are further compo
unded by the increasing migration of people -
to urban areas and to environm
entally sensitive inland areas - in search of
productive land and jobs.
Addr
essing high birth rates means addressing poverty in such countries, say
inte
rnational agencies. More than 1bn people live in absolute poverty
without ad
equate food, clothing or housing.
North-South relationships regarding debt,
trade, aid and technology transfer
are seen as longer-term means of tackling
poverty. Programmes to tackle high
birth rates focus on improving third wor
ld health and education, and
providing readily available and affordable fami
ly planning.
Practice shows that birth rates can be reduced voluntarily by r
aising the
status of women through education and providing them with opportu
nities
other than the traditional child bearing role. It is thought that mor
e than
one in five births in developing countries may be unwanted.
The worst
case scenario for the population explosion is that there could be
12.5bn pe
ople in the world by 2050 if immediate action is not taken. The
most likely
scenario is a figure of 10bn people.
Fertility patterns can change in just o
ne decade. Development and
consumption patterns will have to follow suit, sa
ys the United Nations
Population Fund.
'World resources are adequate for the
sustained development of the planet -
if they are carefully used,' it warns
.
The Financial Times
London Page V
============= Transaction # 65 ==============================================
Transaction #: 65 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:39:17
Selec. Rec. #: 12
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-14657
_AN-CAOBBABPFT
920
115
FT 15 JAN 92 / The Lex Column: UK economy
The trouble with declining inflation is that it is a mixed blessing
when
nominal interest rates are stuck at a high level. Yesterday's UK produ
cer
price figures showed both a healthy decline - to a year-on-year rate of
3.8
per cent - in underlying output price inflation and a welcome 12-month d
rop
in input prices. Admittedly the data only cover the manufacturing sector
:
services inflation is more stubborn, thanks to the likes of British Rail
w
ith its annual fare increases.
But producer price trends still point in theo
ry to a gentle economic
stimulus from declining manufacturing costs and to s
cope for an eventual
sharp fall in interest rates as decelerating wholesale
inflation feeds
through to the retail level. All the more so, since the annu
al rate of
producer price increases should fall even more sharply next month
as last
January's exceptionally large 1.2 per cent rise falls out of the eq
uation.
Unfortunately membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism means UK int
erest
rates are affected less by domestic inflation than by their differenti
al
with those of Germany. Recent French experience suggests that is unlikely
to
change even if headline UK inflation falls below that of Germany in Febr
uary
or March. With a showdown over wages looming in the German steel indust
ry,
the Bundesbank is unlikely to start cutting rates soon. Until it does,
d
eclining inflation in the UK will simply mean higher real interest rates.
Th
at in turn is likely to negate any economic benefit from weak commodity
pric
es.
The Financial Times
London Page 20
============= Transaction # 66 ==============================================
Transaction #: 66 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:39:39
Selec. Rec. #: 15
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9415
_AN-EBODHADOFT
9402
15
FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy
By GARRET FITZGERALD
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ireland UK
----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
+26 +2
GDP per worker +23
+6.5
Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5
Employ
ment +5 -18
Real wages
+16 +9
Consumer prices +13
+30.5
Investment +11.5 -7.5
Person
al consumption +16 +3.5
-----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing 2.5 7.2
Current external balance
+6.5 -2.3
------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
Countries:-
IEZ Irelan
d, EC.
Industries:-
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
ECON Gross d
omestic product.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Time
s
London Page 17
============= Transaction # 67 ==============================================
Transaction #: 67 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:40:06
Selec. Rec. #: 17
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-388
_AN-CI2B1AAKFT
92092
9
FT 29 SEP 92 / The ERM and Maastricht: Swedish bank cu
ts overnight lending rate
By ROBERT TAYLOR
STOCKHOLM
SWEDEN'S central bank cut its ma
rginal overnight lending rate to commercial
banks from 50 per cent to 40 per
cent yesterday in a cautious adjustment
towards a 'more normal interest rat
e level'.
It said the reduction had been made possible by declining turbulen
ce on the
international foreign exchange markets and a drop in Sweden's mone
y market
interest rates.
But Svenska Handelsbanken, a leading commercial ban
k, warned yesterday in
its latest economic forecast that for at least the ne
xt six months interest
rates would remain above the levels existing before t
he financial crisis
began.
However, it suggested a Swedish export recovery w
ould strengthen overseas
market confidence in the country's fixed exchange r
ate policy and the
interest rate differential rate between Sweden and German
y would narrow.
It predicts a further drop of 0.4 per cent in GNP next year
after an
estimated decline of 1.7 per cent this year. The forecast shows onl
y a
modest 1.5 per cent recovery in 1994.
It also predicts a sizeable declin
e in property investment of 46.5 per cent,
but a strong recovery in the trad
e balance and the balance of payments.
Swedes, however, will see real income
s fall next year by 1.9 per cent, with
only a 0.7 per cent improvement in 19
94.
The Financial Times
London Page 2
============= Transaction # 68 ==============================================
Transaction #: 68 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:40:29
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind Default:1,2,3,6,8,9
============= Transaction # 69 ==============================================
Transaction #: 69 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:41:54
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 210155 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 70 ==============================================
Transaction #: 70 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:42:16
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-892
_AN-DC1AGAB2FT
93032
7
FT 27 MAR 93 / Pressure of people to test the west: Mi
gration has focused attention on soaring world population
By BRONWEN MADDOX
Industrialised countries will be co
nfronted with an unprecedented influx of
would-be immigrants in the next few
decades, putting their economies under
enormous pressure. That is the messa
ge delivered by Mrs Nafis Sadik,
director of the United Nations Population F
und (UNFPA), to the UN conference
on European population this week in Geneva
.
More than 2m immigrants are believed to have entered both Europe and North
America over the past two years alone. While Poland, Hungary and
Czechoslov
akia have so far taken the brunt of Russians, gypsies and
Romanians from the
east, political chaos in Russia could intensify westward
migration. This is
quite apart from the pressures from the south, Mrs Sadik
warned.
Migration,
many UN officials and economists in Geneva argued, would be the
factor spur
ring industrialised countries to pay more attention to the
world's soaring p
opulation. Prince Charles pointed out that at last June's
Earth Summit in Ri
o, the link between numbers of people and destruction of
the natural environ
ment was conspicuous by its absence from the agenda.
The Vatican's resistanc
e to including population in the talks was
unsurprising, but the Philippines
and some Middle Eastern countries with
high birth rates also proved obstruc
tive. Environmental pressure groups,
wary of telling developing countries ho
w to manage their affairs, were also
quiet.
Such reticence is difficult to u
nderstand in the light of UN population
projections - one puts the world's p
opulation at 11bn in 2050, double its
present 5.5bn, before it stabilises. M
r Miroslav Macura, demographer with
the UN Economic Commission for Europe, r
eminded the conference that the
total 'could be anywhere from 5bn to 20bn' i
f fertility rates turned out to
differ even marginally from the model's assu
mptions.
Nearly 95 per cent of the projected rise will come from developing
countries, despite the considerable success of many Asian and Latin American
countries in bringing down the rate of population growth in the past two
de
cades.
India now has a fertility rate of about 4 - the average number of chi
ldren
per woman implied by the current birth rate - a fall of about a third
in the
last two decades. China, after its ferocious policy of curbing family
size,
has a rate of about 2.4, though that is still above the two children
per
woman which maintains a static population.
But across much of sub-Sahara
n Africa, fertility rates have been running at
more than 6. Recent studies,
although based on less than perfect data,
suggest the Aids epidemic is cutti
ng only 1 percentage point off population
growth. Ethiopia, despite recurren
t famine, still has a fertility rate of
about 3.
According to Mr Fred Sai, p
resident of the International Planned Parenthood
Federation and chairman of
Ghana's population council, African countries now
recognise that family plan
ning is a tool for health improvement. But the
answers to restraining a high
growth rate of population are not clear-cut.
Recent evidence shows that the
traditional assumption that family size falls
with economic progress does n
ot always hold true. Sri Lanka, Thailand,
Bulgaria and Kerala in India have
all shown sharp falls in family size
despite relatively low prosperity, whil
e the Gulf states have maintained
fertility rates of more than 3 during a pe
riod of sharply rising wealth.
'For every level of prosperity, you can find
an enormous range of fertility
rates,' said Mr David Coleman from Oxford Uni
versity. 'The things that
really bring down family size are more complex, to
do with culture and
education'.
Contraceptive programmes do help though, th
e UNFPA, maintains: it called
last week for the present total of Dollars 4.5
bn spent worldwide on family
planning programmes to double by 2000.
But even
if such measures are successful, the population of developing
countries wil
l continue to surge ahead that of industralised countries.
Fertility rates i
n western Europe now average only about 1.7 children per
woman - the UK rate
is 1.8. Italy and Spain have rates of only 1.2, below
West German levels of
1.4, according to Ms Charlotte Hohn director of the
Federal Population Inst
itute of Germany.
The result is that pensioners will soon outnumber children
in Europe and
North America for the first time, the UNFPA said. Under-15s c
urrently
outnumber the elderly by a third in Europe and North America. But t
he number
of people older than 60 has risen from 90m in 1950 to 185m today,
and could
reach 310m in 2025.
The idea that any resulting labour gap could b
e filled by immigration is
disputed. Mr Coleman argued that 'only about 60 p
er cent of the potential
workforce in western Europe is actually working, an
d there is plenty of
slack.'
Past immigration can adversely affect the host
country, he added. The
availability of cheap labour may be one factor behind
Europe's relative lack
of investment in high-technology industries, he said
.
It is clear from west European delegates that the increasing pressures of
migration are likely to prompt a tightening of frontiers to try to preserve
standards of living for their own citizens. But if the arguments that Europe
does not need immigrants to maintain prosperity are right, its cultural urg
e
to shut the doors may not have adverse economic consequences.
-----------
-------------------------------------
Immigration pressure on developed coun
tries
from growth in developing countries' population
---------------------
---------------------------
Pop in Increase
(million)
1991 by 2005
----------------------------------------------
--
Western Europe 379 4
Eastern Europe 124 11
E
x-Soviet Union 209 10
US 253 81
Medit
erranean* 186 158
Latin America 451 289
Tropical
Africa 531 826
South Asia 1,206 920
------------
------------------------------------
Source: D Coleman, Oxford University
*s
outh-east Mediterranean
------------------------------------------------
Countries:-
QOZ Developed Countries.
Indust
ries:-
P9721 International Affairs.
Types:-
G
OVT Government News.
The Financial Times
London Pa
ge 9
============= Transaction # 71 ==============================================
Transaction #: 71 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:43:09
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-36
_AN-EI3DUAH3FT
940930
FT 30 SEP 94 / Survey of World Economy and Finance - Tr
ade and the World Economy (34): A host of future problems - Population / Bro
nwen Maddox analyses results of the Cairo conference
By BRONWEN MADDOX
Alarm and hope: those are governments' t
win reactions to the latest batch of
projections from the United Nations on
how many people will be occupying the
planet in the next century. One messag
e behind the figures is that high
population growth in developing countries
remains a threat to their
prosperity, and through migration, to that of deve
loped countries as well.
But other messages are that growing populations nee
d not represent the
apocalypse which has been predicted by many, and that th
ere is much
governments can do to slow down the increase.
This month's UN co
nference on population and development in Cairo, the first
to tackle the con
tentious subject for a decade, stirred up controversy on
many fronts. The Va
tican formally registered its reservations to nearly half
the chapters in th
e final text, on the grounds that it condoned abortion as
a form of contrace
ption. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), which organised the
conference, denie
d that the text had that interpretation, but several
Catholic countries in L
atin America also lodged reservations to sections.
However, despite an infor
mal alliance between the Vatican and Moslem
governments in the run-up to Cai
ro, governments achieved a much greater
degree of agreement at Cairo on resp
onses to the threat of population growth
than seemed possible at the previou
s UN conferences in 1984 or 1974. The
final document set a target for annual
spending on family planning of
Dollars 17bn a year by 2000, from national p
rogrammes and international aid,
which marks a threefold increase on present
levels.
Most governments acknowledged at Cairo that it is in their own inte
rest to
take steps to help people limit the sizes of their families, given t
he
formidable projections of the world's population. According to the UNFPA'
s
annual report, published in August, the total is set to reach a sobering
1
0bn by the middle of the next century, up from 5.7bn at present.
The UNFPA's
projection assumes that the average number of children born to
each woman w
ill continue to fall, as it has done for several decades; other
assumptions,
only slightly different, produce estimates of the total number
of people in
2050 between 7.8bn and 12.5bn.
These increases will put increasing strains
on natural resources of all
kinds, both global resources, such as the atmosp
here and seas, and regional.
Water, in particular, may prove 'an increasing
cause of friction' between
countries and regions, the UNFPA suggests.
The im
plications of these projections for the distribution of wealth between
count
ries and continents are also considerable. The World Bank estimates, in
a re
port released ahead of Cairo, that 61 per cent of the world's population
wil
l live in countries with per capita incomes of below Dollars 350 a year
(in
1990 money values). That compares with 57 per cent in 1985. Over the
same pe
riod, the proportion of people living in countries with per capita
incomes o
ver Dollars 19,590 will fall from 16 per cent to 11 per cent.
Moreover, the
bank warns that by 2100, 10 out of 11 people will live in the
developing wor
ld, compared to four out of five at present, and two out of
three in 1950. M
uch of the increase will come in Africa: the present annual
growth in the co
ntinent's population of 2.9 per cent a year is the highest
in the world. Tha
t rate outstrips by some way the annual Asian and Latin
American growth of l
ess than 2 per cent, according to the UNFPA.
Within developing countries, pe
ople will drift to the cities in search of
jobs, prompted by competition for
land and water in rural areas. The World
Bank estimates that in 2025, 57 pe
r cent of the population in developing
countries will live in cities, compar
ed to less than half now.
As a result of those pressures, developed countrie
s should prepare to face
growing pressures for immigration, the bank warns.
As their populations are
growing slowly, they should expect their share of t
he world's population to
shrink. While North America's population is edging
up at 1 per cent a year,
the rate is only 0.5 per cent a year in the former
Soviet Union and 0.3 per
cent a year in western Europe.
Meanwhile, their pop
ulations are ageing: the UNFPA expects the proportion of
people aged 65 and
over in industrialised countries to rise from the present
12.7 per cent to 1
8.4 per cent by 2025.
To set against those threats, UN figures provide some
ammunition to counter
fears of a global food shortage, of the kind voiced by
the 'Club of Rome'
school of forecasters some 20 years ago. The UNFPA obser
ves that 'during the
past 10 years, the world's food production has increase
d by 24 per cent,
outpacing the rate of population growth'.
But the improvem
ent in food production has been unevenly distributed, the
UNFPA also points
out. In Africa, food production fell by 5 per cent while
population rose by
a third. While the UN maintains that food supplies
'should be sufficient to
meet all needs for the foreseeable future', the
poorer regions and countries
will face severe shortages.
Reason to worry, then; but the past two decades
also provide grounds for
hope that governments can help bring down populati
on growth rates. Most
developing countries - even, in the past few years, th
ose in sub-Saharan
Africa - have seen fertility rates fall.
According to UNF
PA officials, a decade ago many African countries saw
growing populations as
a useful tool to increase prosperity. Now, seeing the
growth jeopardise the
fruits of investment in health, education,
infrastructure and agriculture,
they are showing a greater readiness to
promote family planning.
The UNFPA s
ays that governments now appreciate that making contraception
more widely av
ailable helps bring down fertility rates, even if economic
development has b
een slow. Demographers' new message is that if people are
given the means to
control the number of children they have, even in the
poorest countries the
y frequently choose to have fewer.
The past decade has shown governments the
threat which uncurbed population
growth can pose to prosperity. But it has
also helped generate confidence
among governments that growth rates can be t
ackled, and broad agreement on
ways to do that.
Countries:-
EGZ Egypt, Africa.
Industries:-
P9431 Administr
ation of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
CMMT Comment
& Analysis.
The Financial Times
London Page XX
============= Transaction # 72 ==============================================
Transaction #: 72 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:43:44
Selec. Rec. #: 11
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-6050
_AN-EIAD1AAVFT
9409
01
FT 01 SEP 94 / Birth-rate successes moderate Iran's s
tance: A look at attempts to rein in alarming fertility rates as population
hits 60m
By SCHEHERAZADE DANESHKHU
The Iranian government's opposition to next week's United Nations population
conference is not so great that it will join Saudi Arabia and Sudan in
boyc
otting it.
Iran is sending a delegation which it hopes will 'adapt the final
document
to incorporate religious ethics'.
Criticism of the Cairo conferenc
e centres on the pragmatic approach taken
towards issues such as extramarita
l and adolescent sex.
Mr Ali Reza Marandi, Iran's health minister, said earl
ier this week, that
the draft document 'seemed to have disregarded the relig
ious views of the
Islamic world and formulated the text with a sense of sexu
al liberty'.
Iran's own religious ethics underwent revision toward populatio
n control in
1988, when the government recognised the severity of the countr
y's high
population growth rate.
The average population growth rate of 3.9 p
er cent a year in the early 1980s
was among the highest in the world. The Is
lamic government, which took over
after the 1979 revolution, laid greater em
phasis than before on early
marriage and the woman's role as wife and mother
and saw no reason to
encourage birth control.
It welcomed the growth in pop
ulation, seeing it in terms of increased
resources to build the country into
an Islamic model. By the mid-80s,
however, concerns about the economy led t
o fears that the high population
growth was a threat rather than an aid to e
conomic development.
Iran's population grew from just over 37m at the beginn
ing of the revolution
in 1979 to 57m by 1986, an increase attributed to the
lack of a family
planning programme combined with improved health care since
the 1960s.
Today, Iran's population is believed to stand at more than 60m.
Implementation of a family planning programme in 1988 has witnessed a drop
i
n the annual average growth rate from the 3.9 per cent peak to 2.3 per cent
last year and down further to 1.8 per cent in July, according to government
figures. Demographic experts, while acknowledging that Iran has been
success
ful in controlling its population growth, are sceptical of these
figures. Th
ey argue that such a rapid population decrease is impossible in
such a short
period of time and cite the need for strengthened data
collection and stati
stical analysis.
The most reliable figures are those of the country's census
, taken every
five years. This showed an annual average growth rate of 2.9 p
er cent in
1991, well above the current 2 per cent growth rate for developin
g
countries. Subsequent figures have been based on less reliable samples.
Mr
Shu Yun Xu, Iran country director at the United Nations Population Fund
(UN
FPA), says that despite the controversial figures, Iran's family planning
pr
ogramme has been 'a great achievement', partly because of the strength of
th
e government's commitment. 'It has been supportive of all contraceptive
meth
ods, including male sterilisation. Only abortion is not allowed.'
In June, t
he UNFPA approved a Dollars 10m five-year country programme for
Iran and par
t of the funds are allocated to improving Iran's demographic
data collection
.
The main thrust of the government's population control programme has been
based on an increased supply of contraceptives, the training of rural
midwiv
es and counselling in family planning techniques. The Ministry of
Health, wh
ich established a Fertility Regulation Council in 1988 to
implement the prog
ramme, reports a decline in total fertility from 6.4
children per woman in 1
988 to 4.25 in 1993.
Increase use of contraceptives has been partly fuelled
by the lack of family
planning services for almost a decade. An active famil
y planning programme
was launched under the Shah's regime, so the implementa
tion of the current
programme has been relatively easy given the public's ex
isting awareness.
Another reason for the success of the family planning prog
ramme has been a
relatively good health infrastructure which, according to U
NFPA reaches 60
per cent of those living in the countryside and 90 per cent
of the majority
urban population.
Mr Xu said: 'The primary healthcare networ
k is very good especially in rural
areas and the infrastructure is much bett
er than for many Asian countries.'
A women's health volunteer programme in t
he poor suburbs of southern Tehran
has so far produced good results and is t
o be extended. Under the programme,
women volunteers act as family planning
counsellors in areas which are not
served by the primary healthcare network.
Iran has a relatively high literacy rate of 74 per cent and girls' enrolmen
t
in primary school is nearly as high as that of boys. The spread of educati
on
and literacy has increased a widespread desire for smaller families.
Desp
ite the success of the programme to date, the UNFPA says the tasks ahead
are
still 'formidable'. A relatively large number of Iranians, born in the
baby
-boom of 1976-1986 will be of child-bearing age from 1996 onwards, so
fertil
ity rates will increase.
Since 65 per cent of the population is under the ag
e of 25, there is a need
for even more emphasis to be placed on education.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
POPUL
ATION IN IRAN
-------------------------------------------------------------
---------
Population: 1994 63.
2m
2025 144.6m
Aver
age growth 1990-95 2.7%
Urban popul
ation 1992 58%
Fertility rate/wom
an 1990-95 6.0
Adult literacy 1990:
male 65%
female 43%
Family planning users 1975-93
65%
GNP per capita 1991
Dollars 2,170
Share of central govt spending 1991 on:
educ
ation 20.9%
health
7.9%
--------------------------
--------------------------------------------
Source: UNFPA
----------------
------------------------------------------------------
Countrie
s:-
EGZ Egypt, Africa.
IRZ Iran, Middle East.
Ind
ustries:-
P9431 Administration of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 73 ==============================================
Transaction #: 73 Transaction Code: 8 (Mixed Bool./Dir. Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:45:08
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
1 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 7 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {birth rate declining down}) not (title {us united states})"
============= Transaction # 74 ==============================================
Transaction #: 74 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:45:17
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 54449 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 75 ==============================================
Transaction #: 75 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:45:28
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-5793
_AN-EICAFABGFT
9409
02
FT 02 SEP 94 / Falling prosperity hurts family planni
ng
By PAUL ADAMS
LAGOS
In a continent where population growth outstrips economic grow
th, Nigeria at
90m people is by far the biggest nation in Africa.
Until 1988
, when Prof Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, then health minister, launched a
national
population policy, Nigerians had been so proud of their self-styled
tag as t
he 'giant of Africa' that, as long as the oil money rolled in, they
regarded
high population growth as healthy and saw little point in
controlling the r
ate of growth.
Nigeria was then believed to have at least 110m people, putti
ng it among the
10 largest populations in the world. The 1991 census caused
a surprise:
Nigeria had only 88.5m. The over-estimate was a result of inflat
ed numbers
by tribal chiefs and regional governors hoping to boost their pol
itical
clout and revenue allocation.
The United Nations Population Fund has
projected the average population
growth rate between 1990 and 1995 as 3.1 pe
r cent (which would double the
population in about 30 years) with the birth
rate at 45 per 1,000 persons
and death rate at 14 per 1,000 (including an in
fant mortality rate of 96).
The UN estimates the fertility rate at 6.1 child
ren per woman, while the
national policy set a target of only four. Since th
e 1970s the urban
population has risen from 30 per cent to nearly half and t
he rate of growth
in the towns is higher at 5.5 per cent.
Generalising about
Nigeria, a country of over 200 ethnic groups and very
diverse cultures, is
often deceptive and never more so than in attitudes to
education and the rol
e of women.
In the mainly Christian south, female education and literacy are
far higher
than in the predominantly Moslem north, where even the discussio
n of birth
control is not widely accepted.
In the south-east there is a high
percentage of Catholics especially among
the Ibo tribe. The alarming declin
e in social services during the 1990s has
halted the progress towards family
planning clinics and universal primary
education, especially in the north,
bolstering the influence of the Koranic
schools.
Even nationally, the UN pai
nts a bleak picture. 'The status of women in
Nigeria has improved little ove
r the last decade. In general, they are
considered second-class citizens not
by law but because of the social and
cultural climate', says the UNFPA's 19
93 review of the national programme.
The literacy rate for women was 31 per
cent (54 per cent for men) and more
than half of all Nigerian women were mar
ried at the age of 15.
The problem of education lies not just with women. As
a prominent women's
group in Nigeria points out, there may be a target of f
our children per
woman, but in a polygamous society many men far exceed that
figure.
If the prospect of curtailing population growth is limited, the out
look for
economic growth has become bleak. Despite the massive oil boom in t
he 1970s,
the GDP income per capita is down to around Dollars 290, about the
level of
1963. In the period, Indonesia has risen from a lower per capita i
ncome to a
level three times that of Nigeria.
In January's budget speech the
finance minister, Mr Kalu I Kalu, commented
on three years of political unc
ertainty, capital flight government
over-spending, which 'resulted in a furt
her decline in GDP growth rate from
4.8 per cent in 1991 to 2.9 per cent in
1993. A comparison with the average
growth rate of 5 per cent from 1988-91 d
emonstrates the enormity of the task
involved in resuscitating the economy i
n 1994 and beyond,' concluded Mr
Kalu.
Since then strikes, shortages and a d
earth of foreign exchange have taken
the economy further down hill. Nigeria
accounts for about half of West
Africa's population and whereas Ghanaians on
ce poured into Nigeria for a
better life, the chances of reverse migration l
ook more likely.
Countries:-
NGZ Nigeria, Africa.
Industries:-
P9431 Administration of Public Health Progra
ms.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financia
l Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 76 ==============================================
Transaction #: 76 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:45:48
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8321
_AN-EHRD3AAZFT
9408
18
FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h
By BRONWEN MADDOX
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
Countries:-
XOZ Asia.
XCZ Latin A
merica.
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
STATS Statistics
.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 77 ==============================================
Transaction #: 77 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:27
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8321
_AN-EHRD3AAZFT
9408
18
FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h
By BRONWEN MADDOX
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
Countries:-
XOZ Asia.
XCZ Latin A
merica.
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
STATS Statistics
.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 78 ==============================================
Transaction #: 78 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:35
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 54449 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 79 ==============================================
Transaction #: 79 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:40
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 80 ==============================================
Transaction #: 80 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:47
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 81 ==============================================
Transaction #: 81 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:50
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8321
_AN-EHRD3AAZFT
9408
18
FT 18 AUG 94 / Fertility rates are down but not enoug
h
By BRONWEN MADDOX
The UN's popula
tion report tells of a dramatic drop in fertility rates in
the past 40 years
, even in some of the world's poorest countries, Bronwen
Maddox reports.
In
Asia and Latin America the fertility rate has nearly halved from 5.9 to
abou
t 3 children per woman in that period, although Africa (including
northern A
frican states) has showed a smaller decline from 6.6 to 5.8. Even
in develop
ed countries, rates have fallen from 2.8 to 1.7 over that period.
These patt
erns have forced demographers to modify the old assumption of a
link between
low birth rates and economic wealth in favour of a more complex
picture. So
me countries, such as Bangladesh, have achieved steep falls in
fertility rat
es despite relative lack of economic growth. Others, notably
Pakistan and Mi
ddle Eastern countries, continue to have large average family
sizes despite
relatively high levels of economic prosperity.
The UNFPA draws a close conne
ction between low fertility rates and the
availability of contraception, eve
n where gross domestic product per head
has not risen greatly. It attributes
roughly half of the fall in worldwide
fertility rates to improved distribut
ion of contraceptives.
The other half, it says, is due simply to the determi
nation of parents to
have fewer children, even when contraception is not ava
ilable. Even the
poorest families, UNFPA officials say, work out that they c
an spend more on
each child if they have fewer children.
Demographers have l
ong agreed that improving women's education plays an
important part in reduc
ing family sizes. But the UN report suggests that
newer pressures are also p
roviding powerful motivation. When workers move to
towns from the countrysid
e they tend to delay having children and to have
fewer. Anecdotal evidence f
rom west African countries also suggests that
looming land shortages are cur
bing the size of rural families.
These new factors may be helping to push do
wn fertility rates even in Africa
and central America, the regions which hav
e persistently had the highest
rates, Mr Alex Marshall of UNFPA suggests. Si
nce the first half of the
1980s, Tanzania has seen fertility rates drop from
6.7 to 5.9 children per
woman, Namibia from 5.8 to 5.3 and South Africa fro
m 4.8 to 4.1.
Countries:-
XOZ Asia.
XCZ Latin A
merica.
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P9431 Administrati
on of Public Health Programs.
Types:-
STATS Statistics
.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 82 ==============================================
Transaction #: 82 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:46:54
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 83 ==============================================
Transaction #: 83 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:11
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 84 ==============================================
Transaction #: 84 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:25
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 85 ==============================================
Transaction #: 85 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:29
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 86 ==============================================
Transaction #: 86 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:31
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9226
_AN-EHLDRAC0FT
9408
12
FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany
By JUDY DEMPSEY
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
- the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
CMM
T Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
London P
age 12
============= Transaction # 87 ==============================================
Transaction #: 87 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:35
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9688
_AN-EBNCXAAEFT
9402
14
FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars
By JOHN LLOYD
M
OSCOW
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
-a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, East
Europe.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financi
al Times
London Page 1
============= Transaction # 88 ==============================================
Transaction #: 88 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:45
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-13724
_AN-DAVB3AA6FT
930
122
FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply
By EDWARD MORTIMER
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
Countries:-
XMZ Africa.
Industries:-
P99 N
onclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
PEOP Personnel
News.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 89 ==============================================
Transaction #: 89 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:52
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9226
_AN-EHLDRAC0FT
9408
12
FT 12 AUG 94 / Children neither seen nor heard: A ste
ep fall in the birth rate means demographic worries for east Germany
By JUDY DEMPSEY
The British author, PD Jam
es, recently wrote a novel called The Children of
Men. It is set in England
in 2021 and describes how infertility has spread
like a plague. The human ra
ce faces extinction as scientists try to reverse
the trend. At the end of th
e book, a woman gives birth, but whether this is
enough to save the human ra
ce is left open.
German demographers and doctors could identity with this wo
rk of fiction:
five years since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the birth r
ate in east
Germany continues to plummet.
Mr Horst Halle, head of the matern
ity department at the Charite, east
Berlin's largest hospital, first noticed
the trend in early 1990. 'You just
had to look at the statistics,' he expla
ined. 'Before 1989, there were about
16,000 babies born each year in east Be
rlin. Today, that figure has slumped
to 6,800, a decline of about 60 per cen
t.
'In the Charite itself, we used to record about 2,200 births a year. Toda
y,
we have fewer than 1,800, and we are doing better than most maternity
hos
pitals in east Berlin.'
Such an unprecedented fall in the birth rate would h
ave shocked the former
communist regime in East Germany. It prided itself on
its wide range of
social services aimed at providing women with excellent c
hildcare facilities
to encourage them to have children.
Then, day-care centr
es were free. Women could take a year's paid maternity
leave and return to a
guaranteed job, or take off three years with generous
state support and sti
ll have the same job to go back to. Indeed, more than
90 per cent of the fem
ale working population were employed, compared with 49
per cent in west Germ
any. By the age of 21, east German women started having
children, unlike the
ir west German counterparts, who generally started a
family in their mid-to-
late 20s.
Despite these incentives, however, the birth rate in east Germany
was
relatively low compared with most other east European countries under th
e
communists. Mr Jurgen Dorbritz, a demographer at the Federal Statistics
Of
fice, says: 'What we are now seeing in eastern Germany is a birth rate
which
is falling from a low base. That is the worrying aspect. That's what
makes
the statistics so extraordinary.'
In 1989, there were 198,922 live births in
east Germany, the equivalent of
12 births per 1,000, or about 1.6 children
per family. This was the same as
in west Germany. By 1993, the number of eas
t German births had fallen to
79,926 - or about 60 per cent of the 1989 rate
- the equivalent of 0.8
children per family, or only half the west German l
evel.
'We just don't know how long this trend will continue. One thing is ce
rtain.
There will be very few children born between the years 2015 and 2020
because
of the lack of women of child-bearing age. Can you imagine how diffi
cult it
is going to be to pay for the number of old people in our country?'
said Mr
Dorbritz.
According to the latest statistics from the German Associa
tion for Pension
Insurance, the number of people under the age of 20 in east
Germany will
fall from 3.84m in 1993 to 2.6m in 2020; the number of people
aged between
20 and 60 will fall from 8.7m to 7.6m; and those over 60 will r
ise from 3m
to 4.13m. The percentage of pensioners per 100 contributors to t
he state
pension insurance system will rise from 26 per cent in 1993 to more
than 50
per cent by 2020.
Mr Halle, who has worked in the Charite for 28 ye
ars, believes there are
several reasons why east German women are remaining
childless. 'Demographers
tend to ignore the fact that we had been expecting
a sharp fall in the birth
rate in the year 1995, regardless of unification.
This is because the east
German abortion law of 1972 made abortion available
on demand. We knew we
were not going to have many child-bearing women in th
e mid-1990s,' he
explained. In 1972, the birth rate fell to about 6 per 1,00
0, climbing back
to about 12 births per 1,000. Today it is fewer than 5.1.
B
ut Mr Halle also believes that the process of German unification itself has
had a profound social effect on east German women. 'A young east German
woma
n knows that if she becomes pregnant, the chances she will find a job
are no
w far less, especially given the high level of unemployment,' he said.
East
German women have borne the brunt of unemployment, which is officially
16 pe
r cent of the working population, excluding those on short-time work,
early
retirement schemes, or job creation programmes.
By the end of the first quar
ter of this year, more than 790,000 east German
women had lost their jobs, r
epresenting a female unemployment rate of 23 per
cent. In west Germany, 1.1m
women, or 9.3 per cent, are out of work. 'East
German women today have free
dom of choice, but they have lost their status
in society,' said Mr Dorbritz
.
The other pressure arising from unification is that many east German women
have had to seek new qualifications, retrain, or change jobs more often,
un
like the former days when a job was for life. 'There is no more security.
Th
e widespread sense of uncertainty has played a major role in the decline
of
the birth rate,' said Mr Dorbritz.
The freedom to travel has played its part
in the decline of the birth rate
as well: young east German women have an u
nprecedented chance to go abroad
before they settle and start a family.
'The
re was hardly anything else to do before 1989,' said Mr Dorbritz. 'East
Germ
an society was geared towards encouraging young women to procreate. All
thos
e social planks of free kindergartens, both parents in a job, heavily
subsid
ised or free children's clothes and shoes, have now disappeared.'
Greater mo
bility and open borders have led to a sharp rise in migration from
east Germ
any to west Germany. More than 1.2m from a population of 17m east
Germans we
nt to live in west Germany between late 1989 and early 1991.
'Many of these
people were young and skilled,' said Mr Nicholas Eberstadt, a
demographer at
the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
'Of the overa
ll drop in the birth rate, roughly one-ninth can be attributed
to the sheer
decline of east Germany's population during those two years.'
Staff at the C
harite hospital know that, unless the birth rate increases,
the obstetrician
s, doctors and nurses could be without a job. 'We have 2,000
beds here,' sai
d Mr Halle. 'Before unification, we were dealing with more
than 2,200 women
a year. If we cannot account for all the beds, we will be
under pressure to
make savings. That means cutting jobs.'
But his main concern is the kind of
society which will evolve in east
Germany in the next century. 'The prognosi
s is very bad,' said Mr Halle. 'I
do not know how we are going to fend for t
he elderly. Who is going to pay
for them?' One answer might be to allow immi
grants into the country under a
quota system to replenish the population - a
solution advanced by some
liberals.
One thing is clear. Mr Eberstadt believ
es that, if the present trends in
east Germany continue, it will be virtuall
y impossible for what he calls
'generational replacement' to occur.
'For gen
erational replacement, eastern Germany's women of child-bearing age
today wo
uld have to give birth to an average of about 2.07 infants over the
course o
f their lives. They are now having 0.8 children, less than one birth
per wom
an per lifetime. This is not enough for a net population
replacement.'
Countries:-
DEZ Germany, EC.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
CMM
T Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
London P
age 12
============= Transaction # 90 ==============================================
Transaction #: 90 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:52
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9688
_AN-EBNCXAAEFT
9402
14
FT 14 FEB 94 / Russia faces population crisis as deat
h rate soars
By JOHN LLOYD
M
OSCOW
Russia is facing a double population crisis - a dra
matic rise in death rates
and a sharp fall in the birth rate, according to o
fficial figures which have
largely been kept hidden from public debate.
In t
he past year alone, the death rate jumped 20 per cent, or 360,000 deaths
mor
e than in 1992. Researchers now believe that the average age for male
mortal
ity in Russia has sunk to 59 - far below the average in the
industrialised w
orld and the lowest in Russia since the early 1960s.
The results, which have
been a matter of close concern at the level of
Russia's National Security C
ouncil, are only now trickling out. Some were
given at a conference last wee
k at the New York Harriman Institute by Ms
Natalia Rimashevskaya, head of th
e Institute for Socio-Economic Studies of
the Population, while further rese
arch into the figures has been done by Ms
Judith Shapiro, a British academic
working with the macroeconomic and
finance unit which was attached to the R
ussian finance ministry until last
month.
Ms Rimashevskaya's findings showed
, she said, an 'unprecedented' rise in the
death rate, with much of the incr
ease due to 'killings, suicides and
conflicts'. However, infant mortality ha
d also gone up sharply, from 17.4 in
1,000 in 1990 to 19.1 in 1,000 last yea
r.
The average age of death (for men and women) was now, she said, 'at 66 or
lower' - the same level as in the early to mid-1960s and four or five years
below the figure that had been achieved more recently. In 1993, 1.4m people
were born and 2.2m died - although inward migration of Russians from former
Soviet republics compensated to some extent, bringing the net fall in
popul
ation to 500,000 last year.
Ms Shapiro's findings, based like Ms Rimashevska
ya's on figures from the
state statistical committee Goskomstat, which have
had very limited
availability, show men to be the main victims of earlier de
aths. The average
death rate has been brought down to 59, she says, largely
through two causes
-a higher rate of coronary disease and strokes, and more
violent deaths.
Of the total of 360,000 extra deaths in 1993, nearly 50 per
cent were from
heart and circulatory failure and more than 25 per cent were
from violent
causes.
Ms Shapiro says that simple poverty, and the state of
the post-Soviet health
service, are probably minor causes of the phenomenon.
More significant is
what she calls a 'psycho-social crisis' with greatly ri
sing insecurity.
Ms Rimashevskaya says the decline of births is partly due t
o a simple
shortage of women - but more because women of child-bearing age p
ostpone
having children or decide not to give birth 'because of the poor sit
uation
in the society'.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, East
Europe.
Industries:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishme
nts.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financi
al Times
London Page 1
============= Transaction # 91 ==============================================
Transaction #: 91 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:52
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-13724
_AN-DAVB3AA6FT
930
122
FT 22 JAN 93 / N African birth rate falls steeply
By EDWARD MORTIMER
THE population exp
losion in North Africa is over, according to a leading
French demographer, P
rof Youssef Courbage, writes Edward Mortimer.
Birth rates in the region are
falling rapidly, and European fears of a flood
of Arab immigrants are wildly
exaggerated, Mr Courbage told a conference in
Brussels yesterday.
In fact,
he added, the working-age population in Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia will le
vel off in about 2005, when the number of job applicants will
begin to decre
ase.
'Just as Europe's bulging baby-boom generation leaves working life for
retirement, and will need to rely on a sufficient labour force - foreign
wor
kers in particular - to finance it, the Maghreb labour markets, where
labour
will be in short supply, will be hard-pressed to meet export
demands.'
Mr C
ourbage, a senior researcher at the Institut National d'Etudes
Demographique
s in Paris, was speaking at a workshop on Europe and the
Mediterranean at th
e Centre for European Policy Studies.
The decrease in fertility in the Maghr
eb countries is acknowledged by the UN
and the World Bank, he said, but thos
e organisations had not yet taken the
full measure of the decline.
The UN ha
d significantly overestimated fertility in all three countries.
Countries:-
XMZ Africa.
Industries:-
P99 N
onclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
PEOP Personnel
News.
The Financial Times
London Page 3
============= Transaction # 92 ==============================================
Transaction #: 92 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:47:55
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 93 ==============================================
Transaction #: 93 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:48:02
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 94 ==============================================
Transaction #: 94 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:49:21
Selec. Rec. #: 15
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9415
_AN-EBODHADOFT
9402
15
FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy
By GARRET FITZGERALD
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ireland UK
----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
+26 +2
GDP per worker +23
+6.5
Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5
Employ
ment +5 -18
Real wages
+16 +9
Consumer prices +13
+30.5
Investment +11.5 -7.5
Person
al consumption +16 +3.5
-----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing 2.5 7.2
Current external balance
+6.5 -2.3
------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
Countries:-
IEZ Irelan
d, EC.
Industries:-
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
ECON Gross d
omestic product.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Time
s
London Page 17
============= Transaction # 95 ==============================================
Transaction #: 95 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:49:52
Selec. Rec. #: 15
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9415
_AN-EBODHADOFT
9402
15
FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy
By GARRET FITZGERALD
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ireland UK
----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
+26 +2
GDP per worker +23
+6.5
Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5
Employ
ment +5 -18
Real wages
+16 +9
Consumer prices +13
+30.5
Investment +11.5 -7.5
Person
al consumption +16 +3.5
-----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing 2.5 7.2
Current external balance
+6.5 -2.3
------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
Countries:-
IEZ Irelan
d, EC.
Industries:-
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
ECON Gross d
omestic product.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Time
s
London Page 17
============= Transaction # 96 ==============================================
Transaction #: 96 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:49:57
Selec. Rec. #: 15
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9415
_AN-EBODHADOFT
9402
15
FT 15 FEB 94 / Personal View: Positive aspects of Ire
land's economy
By GARRET FITZGERALD
European Union statistics shows that there is one member state whose growth
over the past five years is spectacularly ahead of all the others - almost
three times faster than the rest of the EU - and which has by far the best
E
U record in relation to the expansion of manufacturing employment. It also
h
as the lowest rate of inflation during this period. Moreover, it has for
som
e years had the lowest level of public borrowing and by far the fastest
expo
rt growth and biggest external payments surplus in the European Union.
This
state is also unusual in that the increase in the purchasing power of
its av
erage wage since 1988 has been matched only by one other EU country -
Portug
al. Other striking features are that it has the lowest death rate in
the wor
ld for mothers and for children under five, the highest level of food
consum
ption and the second-highest rate of home ownership. Its rate of
female part
icipation in parliament and government is a third higher than in
Britain and
the EU respectively.
The state in question is Ireland.
Of course, this is n
ot the whole story. There are two other aspects of the
Irish state which are
equally notable and less positive: its average level
of living standards, m
easured in terms of its disposable income per head of
population, is 22 per
cent below that of the EU as a whole, and its
unemployment rate is higher th
an in any other EU country except Spain.
Both of these features are, however
, largely time-lagged consequences of a
very high birth rate, which as recen
tly as the late 1970s was as much as
four-fifths higher than in many other E
uropean countries. However, this
exceptionally high rate is now a thing of t
he past. For, despite the
increase of more than half in the number of young
people in its population
during the past two decades, a virtual halving of t
he fertility rate has
reduced the Irish birth rate by more than a third. Thi
s was brought about by
the almost universal adoption of contraceptive practi
ces, in disregard of
the attitude of the Roman Catholic authorities. It is q
uite possible that
within a few years the rate will have fallen to the kind
of very low level
that prevails in countries in southern Europe.
Why has the
Irish birth rate been such a crucial factor influencing
ultimately a countr
y's living standards as internationally measured? For the
simple reason that
a country whose birth rate has been very high in the
recent past is bound t
o have a much higher ratio of dependants to workers:
not only children and s
tudents, but also, eventually, unemployed. This is
because there is a limit
to any modern industrial state's ability to absorb
very large flows of young
people emerging annually from the education
system. This is why the Irish s
tate's dependency ratio is 215 per 100
workers as against about 130 dependen
ts per 100 workers in the UK and 157
per 100 in the EU as a whole.
Vis a vis
the UK, this factor helps explain the Irish state's lower level of
output p
er capita. For after a five-year period in which Irish gross
domestic produc
t has risen by 26 per cent, against a net 2 per cent in the
UK, the level of
disposable income per worker in Ireland measured at
purchasing power pariti
es is now the same as that of Britain and higher than
that of Scandinavia.
T
he level of Irish unemployment is also largely a function of the past high
b
irth rate. Because Ireland's population was a fifth smaller up to 30 years
a
go, the number of annual retirements is currently relatively low. At the
sam
e time, the high birth rate up to the 1980s has been yielding - and will
con
tinue to yield until after 1998 - a high rate of entry into the Irish
labour
force. The result: a need for a net annual increase of more than 3
per cent
in jobs - whereas in the EU as a whole the rate has been only a
fifth of 1
per cent. With annual births down from 74,000 in 1980 to fewer
than 52,000 i
n 1989, and now dropping below 50,000, it is clear that this
problem will ha
ve largely solved itself within about 15 years.
Meanwhile, the short-term gr
owth prospects of the Irish economy are probably
better even than forecast b
y the European Commission. There are now marked
signs of a recovery in consu
mer demand, which will generate increased
employment later this year.
This i
s the background to the recent Irish budget, which should have a
moderately
stimulating effect on the economy, mainly through income tax
reliefs.
The au
thor is the former taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland
------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
CHANGES 1988-1993 %
-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ireland UK
----------------------
-------------------------------------------------
GDP
+26 +2
GDP per worker +23
+6.5
Total employment manufacturing +3 -4.5
Employ
ment +5 -18
Real wages
+16 +9
Consumer prices +13
+30.5
Investment +11.5 -7.5
Person
al consumption +16 +3.5
-----------------------
------------------------------------------------
Percentage of GDP 1993
---
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Public
borrowing 2.5 7.2
Current external balance
+6.5 -2.3
------------------------------------------
-----------------------------
Countries:-
IEZ Irelan
d, EC.
Industries:-
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Moneta
ry Policy.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
ECON Gross d
omestic product.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Time
s
London Page 17
============= Transaction # 97 ==============================================
Transaction #: 97 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:50:22
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11076
_AN-EHBDUAAYFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Italian birth rate shrinks
By ROBERT GRAHAM
ROME
Italians risk becoming a vanishing race if current demographic trends
con
tinue. In 1993 Italy registered a 'birth deficit', with deaths
outnumbering
the newly born for the first time this century outside the
first world war.
According to Istat, the national statistics institute, the
number of births
fell to 538,168 - the lowest level since the unification of
Italy. In contra
st, the number of deaths rose to 543,433. Compared to 1992,
the birth rate f
ell from 9.9 to 9.4 per 1,000. If the present trend
continues, one recent re
search paper suggests Italy's population could fall
from 57m to 12m by the y
ear 2100. However, the south continues to be
prolific and its baby 'surplus'
almost compensates for the 'deficit' in the
centre and north. Increased wea
lth is the main explanation for the decline.
But unlike northern European co
untries, Italy does not possess an immigrant
population with a high birth ra
te.
Countries:-
ITZ Italy, EC.
Industries
:-
P99 Nonclassifiable Establishments.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
The Financial Times
London P
age 3
============= Transaction # 98 ==============================================
Transaction #: 98 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:50:26
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind Default:8,2,3,6,15,1
============= Transaction # 99 ==============================================
Transaction #: 99 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:51:38
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 210155 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 100 ==============================================
Transaction #: 100 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:51:55
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 101 ==============================================
Transaction #: 101 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 14:53:18
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 3 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {sugar cuba import})"
============= Transaction # 102 ==============================================
Transaction #: 102 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:53:24
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 32430 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 103 ==============================================
Transaction #: 103 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:53:32
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12369
_AN-EKBD9AA5FT
941
102
FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER
MOSCOW, HAVANA
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba,
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with
Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active -
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, Eas
t Europe.
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9721
International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 104 ==============================================
Transaction #: 104 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:53:57
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12369
_AN-EKBD9AA5FT
941
102
FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER
MOSCOW, HAVANA
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba,
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with
Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active -
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, Eas
t Europe.
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9721
International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 105 ==============================================
Transaction #: 105 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:53:59
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-3729
_AN-CIJB4AFOFT
9209
10
FT 10 SEP 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Pakistan
can halt sugar imports
By FARHAN BOKHARI
<
DATELINE> ISLAMABAD
SURPLUS SUGAR stocks in Pakistan a
re set to eliminate the country's need to
import sugar, although the potenti
al for export remains unclear.
Pakistan's total production is expected to hi
t 2.6m tonnes by the end of the
1992-93 fiscal year, up from 2.3m tonnes in
1991-92. Government officials
estimate that private traders are holding 132,
000 tonnes of stocks, and that
is expected to start rising next month as the
new production season begins
at sugar mills.
The rise in sugar production h
as partly resulted from an increase in the
number of sugar mills as well as
improvements in the recovery rate of sugar
cane and beet. Pakistan started w
ith 2 sugar mills with a daily sugar cane
crushing capacity of 1,500 tonnes
at the time of its independence in 1947;
today there are 54, with an aggrega
te capacity of 175,000 tonnes.
The rise in production has allowed cuts in su
gar imports. In June this year,
imports of white refined sugar fell to just
538 tonnes, down from 3,480
tonnes in May. Last year, 36,819 tonnes was impo
rted in June, following
48,290 tonnes in May.
However, the country's sugar e
xport potential remains unclear. With
countries such as Brazil and Cuba havi
ng lower costs of production,
Pakistani sugar might not be able to compete,
said one senior official.
Up to 100,000 tonnes of sugar is estimated to be s
muggled annually to
neighbouring Iran and Afghanistan. That has made it diff
icult to assess if a
surplus will be left after meeting domestic consumption
, including
smuggling, in order to set aside large quantities for export. Ho
wever,
Pakistan will at least save valuable foreign exchange by meeting its
sugar
requirements domestically. Last year Dollars 36.8m was spent on import
ing
sugar, which was down from Dollars 160.5m, a year earlier.
The Financial Times
London Page 32
============= Transaction # 106 ==============================================
Transaction #: 106 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:54:43
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-9644
_AN-CBKBQACWFT
9202
11
FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
sugar crop forecast
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO CITY
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 107 ==============================================
Transaction #: 107 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:56:25
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-9644
_AN-CBKBQACWFT
9202
11
FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
sugar crop forecast
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO CITY
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 108 ==============================================
Transaction #: 108 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:56:29
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-14610
_AN-CAOBBAC0FT
920
115
FT 15 JAN 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar im
ports increased last year
By REUTER
SUGAR IMPORTS to the former Soviet Union were higher in the first 10 months
of 1991 than in the whole of 1990, according to figures published in the
De
cember monthly report of the International Sugar Organisation, reports
Reute
r.
Shipped to the former Soviet Union in January to October 1991 were 4.41m
tonnes, sugar raw value, compared with 4.08m tonnes in 1990.
January-Novembe
r 1991 imports from Cuba, at 3.69m tonnes, increased by
270,000 tonnes over
the 1990 total but remained unchanged in relative terms,
accounting for 84 p
er cent of total shipments.
The Financial Times
L
ondon Page 30
============= Transaction # 109 ==============================================
Transaction #: 109 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:56:43
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-13094
_AN-CAWAWACSFT
920
123
FT 23 JAN 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Broker c
uts estimate of 1991-92 sugar surplus
By DAVID BLACK
WELL
FALLS in the sugar production of the former Soviet Uni
on and Cuba have led
ED & F. Man, the London trade house, to cut its estimat
e for the world sugar
supply surplus for 1991-92 to 1.58m tonnes from a Sept
ember estimate of
2.06m tonnes.
This compares with a surplus of 990,000 tonn
es predicted last week by FO
Licht, the German sugar statistics agency, whic
h stated categorically:
'There is no large surplus overhanging the market.'
Man, which now puts production at 113.05m tonnes and consumption at 111.47m
tonnes, points out that the revolutionary changes in the world political
are
na have plunged the sugar market into 'the greatest period of uncertainty
ov
er three decades'.
The immediate impact has been the forecast decline in imp
orts to the former
Soviet Union, coupled with a fall in its trade with Cuba.
'A shift away from
agreements that by-passed the international free market
is a favourable
development for the world sugar market but, coming at a time
when the raw
sugar import demand of the ex-centrally planned economies of E
ast and
Central Europe is falling, it is depressing for prices,' Man says in
its
latest sugar market report.
It is assuming a 15 per cent fall in sugar
consumption in the former Soviet
Union to 10.6m tonnes of whites. Raw produc
tion is put at 7.5m tonnes. The
consumption figure is conservative 'given th
e hoarding that has apparently
taken place over the past two years and the e
stimated 2m tonnes of sugar
that is used in making home-brewed alcohol'.
The Financial Times
London Page 34
============= Transaction # 110 ==============================================
Transaction #: 110 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:56:59
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-12873
_AN-CDOBJAC3FT
920
415
FT 15 APR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba fac
ed with worst sugar crop in years
By REUTER
HAVANA
CUBA IS straining to finish what c
ould be its worst sugar harvest in recent
years because it says it needs eve
ry tonne to help keep its crisis-hit
economy afloat, reports Reuter from Hav
ana.
After maintaining a virtual news blackout on the 1991-1992 sugar crop f
or
five months, the Caribbean island's government is now making the harvest
a
national public issue. 'Our sole option. . . is not to lose a single tonne
of sugar,' it said.
The government urged the country's sugar workers to mak
e a maximum effort
over the next few weeks, a message reinforced by daily te
levision propaganda
spots focusing on the harvest.
The official media descri
be the current season as one of the most difficult
ever experienced by Cuba,
which has traditionally been the world's biggest
exporter of sugar.
The 199
1-1992 harvest started late and has been bedevilled by shortages of
oil, lub
ricants and spare parts that are essential to keep mechanical
harvesters and
mills running.
Adding to the urgency is the possible onset of spring rains
in May which
could disrupt a late-finishing harvest.
Even more worrying for
Cuba, the difficulties come at a time when it needs
every tonne of sugar it
can produce to exchange for vital imports of oil,
machinery spares and food.
The Financial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 111 ==============================================
Transaction #: 111 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:57:13
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-8126
_AN-CBSB3AC8FT
9202
19
FT 19 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Raw sugar
shortage hits Russian refineries
By LEYLA BOULTON <
/BYLINE>
MOSCOW
THE RUSSIAN authorities sai
d yesterday sugar refinery output had reached a
historic low but that relief
was on its way in the form of imports from Cuba
and France.
Mr Vasili Sever
in, head of the sugar production department at the Russian
agriculture minis
try, told Itar-Tass that only four of 95 refineries were
functioning because
of a shortfall of raw sugar. He said refineries had last
year received only
4m tonnes of the 7.5m tonnes of raw sugar they were
supposed to receive und
er the state plan.
His deputy, Mr Anatoly Kholudov, said that the 'situation
with sugar was
serious' and that supplies would be worse this year than las
t. But he added
that some more plants would be opened in March to process im
ported supplies.
Mr Severin said the first shipments would arrive from Cuba
and France in
late February.
Prodintorg, a state trading body, said it was t
alking with more potential
suppliers but declined to give details.
Mr Boris
Orlov, head of the government's department for agricultural
products, said t
hat sugar refining was a seasonal process and that only a
few more refinerie
s would be open at this time of year any way. 'The plants
usually function f
or three to four months starting in September.' He said
Russia required 7m t
onnes of raw sugar this year, some of which would
materialise only this autu
mn.
He said the shortfall was caused by producers' refusal to sell raw sugar
to
the state because they were waiting for prices to rise. They had sold th
eir
raw sugar to private markets instead. Mr Alexei Ulyuakev, an adviser to
the
Russian government, said earlier this week the government was considerin
g
liberalising from next month the prices of sugar and vegetable oil, two
co
mmodities which are in particularly short supply in the shops.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 112 ==============================================
Transaction #: 112 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:57:41
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-8261
_AN-CBRBMAFXFT
9202
18
FT 18 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: World sug
ar market 'at the crossroads'
By DAVID BLACKWELL
THE WORLD sugar market is at the crossroads, forcing many prod
ucers to
review their sugar policies in the light of changing international
trade
patterns, the Gatt, and other trade liberalisation issues, according t
o the
latest sugar report from ED & F. Man, the London trade house.
Should t
he Gatt talks be successful, cuts in support mechanisms by 1999
'should acce
lerate the fall in the EC's net exports as marginal producers
fail to cover
their average production costs. The same argument applies to
some of the hig
h cost/less efficient producers in the US.'
This will open up new opportunit
ies for many producers in Africa and the
Caribbean, but they will need to ex
amine their long-term cost structure and
efficiency. Man points out that und
er preferential access to the US and EC
markets, their production costs and
efficiency deteriorated to the extent
that some have failed even to meet the
ir quota allocations.
The increase in international trade will not, however,
increase the
transparency of the market. The uncertainty of Russsia's effec
tive imports,
Cuba's exports and the pattern of trade elsewhere in eastern E
urope have
'turned the clock back some 40 years to a time when information a
bout import
demand and export availabiltiy was lacking'.
Meanwhile sugar pri
ces - which recently fell below 8 cents a lb - are
expected to come under fu
rther pressure as exportable surpluses come on to
the market from Brazil, Cu
ba, Thailand and the EC.
The Financial Times
Lond
on Page 36
============= Transaction # 113 ==============================================
Transaction #: 113 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:57:57
Selec. Rec. #: 9
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-341
_AN-EI2D5AF1FT
94092
9
FT 29 SEP 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar defi
cit put at 1.8m tonnes
By DEBORAH HARGREAVES
The world is expected to face another deficit year in sugar suppli
es after a
worsening in prospects for this year's crop, according to the lat
est report
by ED & F. Man, the UK commodities house. Sugar production is for
ecast to be
110.7m tonnes for the next crop year (1994-1995) leaving a short
fall of 1.8m
tonnes.
World supplies are already tight after the unloading of
stocks in the
current crop year when production of 109.03m tonnes led to a
deficit of 2.2m
tonnes. The two deficit years come after 12 years' of produc
tion surpluses
with supply tightness already pushing prices higher.
A poor s
ugar crop in China and crop difficulties in Cuba combined with
India's desir
e to increase imports and rebuild stocks could all contribute
towards pushin
g prices higher. Man expects India's output to reach 11.6m
tonnes with consu
mption at 12.1m tonnes, leading to imports for next year at
similar levels t
o this year.
China's cane crop has been badly damaged by flooding this year
and stocks
are dwindling. Man's estimate for Cuba's crop next year is 3.5m t
onnes -
500,000 tonnes below this season's level pushing the country out of
the top
ten producers.
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Type
s:-
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
London Page 36
============= Transaction # 114 ==============================================
Transaction #: 114 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:58:18
Selec. Rec. #: 10
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11487
_AN-EG2DTAF1FT
940
729
FT 29 JUL 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Bumper Q
ueensland sugar output set to topple Cuba from pole position
By REUTERS
BRISBANE
Aust
ralia is set to become the world's biggest raw sugar exporter this year,
wit
h a high sugar content cane crop in Queensland expected to push output
beyon
d the forecast 4.4m tonnes, reports Reuters from Brisbane.
The state's sugar
output is likely to rise to over 4.6m tonnes according to
the Canegrowers g
roup.
Mr Ian Ballantyne, Canegrowers general manager, said that the signs af
ter a
month of harvesting indicated that the record crop of 32m tonnes of ca
ne had
above average sugar content and would beat earlier sugar production
f
orecasts.
'We have seen around a 10 per cent increase in the actual size of
crop but
about 15 per cent increase in the content of sugar,' he said. 'We d
efinitely
have 4.4m tonnes of sugar there but probably more.'
About 85 per c
ent of Australia's raw sugar is exported with 3.36m tonnes
going overseas la
st year. This made Australian sugar exports the world's
second largest after
Cuba's 3.6m tonnes.
Australia is hoping to take the number one position thi
s year with a third
successive good crop and with Cuba's sugar production fa
lling to about 4m
tonnes.
Last year Queensland produced 4.02m tonnes of suga
r with the only other
growing state, New South Wales, producing its annual a
verage of around
200,000 tonnes.
'There is just no question that the 1994 gr
owing season will produce a very
good crop of sugar after a bit of a ragged
start,' Mr Ballantyne said.
So far, only about 20 per cent of the country's
crop has been harvested.
Countries:-
AUZ Australia.
Industries:-
P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
P2061
Raw Cane Sugar.
Types:-
MKTS Production.
T
he Financial Times
London Page 24
============= Transaction # 115 ==============================================
Transaction #: 115 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:58:34
Selec. Rec. #: 11
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-1106
_AN-CIXB5AFYFT
9209
24
FT 24 SEP 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuban sug
ar growers face more problems
By REUTER
HAVANA
CUBA, which in 1991-92 produced its lo
west sugar crop in a decade, faces an
even more difficult harvest in 1992-93
, according to Mr Juan Herrera, the
Cuban sugar minister, Reuter reports fro
m Havana.
The Cuban domestic news agency AIN said Mr Herrera told Cuba's off
icial
workers' trade union that 'in the coming harvest there will be even gr
eater
difficulties'.
Cuba produced 7m tonnes of sugar in the 1991-92 harvest
, which was plagued
by shortages of oil, lubricants, spare parts, herbicides
, pesticides and
fertilisers. Mr Herrera said a fall in the number of availa
ble sugar cane
harvesting machines would mean an increase in cane cutting by
manual workers
next season.
The Financial Times
London Page 34
============= Transaction # 116 ==============================================
Transaction #: 116 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:58:44
Selec. Rec. #: 12
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT933-10100
_AN-DHFBQAGRFT
930
805
FT 05 AUG 93 / New ministers to spearhead Cuban refo
rms
By REUTER
HAVANA
CUBA'S government replaced four ministers yesterday in a shake-u
p of key
economic posts that signalled its determination to confront the isl
and's
economic crisis with reforms, Reuter reports from Havana.
The ruling c
ouncil of state, headed by President Fidel Castro, named Mr
Alfredo Jordan M
orales, Mr Nelson Torres Perez, General Silvano Colas
Sanchez and Mr Jose Lu
is Rodriguez Garca as the new ministers for
agriculture, sugar, communicatio
ns and finance respectively.
It was the most important shake-up of economic
posts on the Caribbean island
for several years.
Foreign diplomats said the
changes confirmed President Castro's intention to
tackle the island's econom
ic problems, aggravated this year by flagging food
production and a disastro
us sugar harvest.
Mr Rodriguez, a leading economist, was previously deputy d
irector of the
Centre for Research in the World Economy in Havana. Last week
he told
foreign reporters he foresaw the introduction of monetary, tax and
exchange
rate policies and limited market mechanisms to overhaul the economy
.
The state media have indicated the government intends to depart from its
a
dherence to the former Soviet-style economic policies in force when Cuba
was
a member of the Soviet trading bloc Comecon.
Mr Torres, who is to head the
strategic sugar ministry, has earned a
reputation for efficiency in his prev
ious post as Communist party chief in
the south-central province of Cienfueg
os. He replaced Mr Juan Herrera
Machado, another veteran who had served seve
n years as sugar minister.
During Cuba's disastrous 1992-93 sugar harvest, o
utput slumped to 4.2m
tonnes, one of the lowest levels ever. Reasons cited f
or the failure, which
cost Cuba Dollars 500m in lost sugar revenue, were uns
easonably bad weather
as well as acute shortages of fuel, spare parts and fe
rtilisers.
In the agriculture ministry, Mr Jordan also faces the challenge o
f reviving
flagging food production, a sensitive area for Cuba's nearly 11m
people who
are suffering serious food shortages.
Mr Jordan was a provincial
party chief in eastern Las Tunas province.
The new ministers will serve unde
r Mr Carlos Lage, vice-president of the
council of state and recognised by m
ost observers as Cuba's leading economic
strategist.
The appointment of Gen
Colas as communications minister follows an existing
policy of putting milit
ary figures in infrastructure posts, such as
transport.
Countri
es:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9199
General Government, NEC.
Types:-
GOVT Government News
.
The Financial Times
International Page 4
============= Transaction # 117 ==============================================
Transaction #: 117 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:59:05
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 32430 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 118 ==============================================
Transaction #: 118 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 14:59:09
Selec. Rec. #: 13
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-1006
_AN-EI0DNAA4FT
9409
27
FT 27 SEP 94 / Cubans urged not to forget their sugar
: Havana recognises food market reforms are not enough to rescue economy
By PASCAL FLETCHER
In a recent broadca
st, Cuban state radio chastised some of the country's
sugar workers for spen
ding more time growing food than weeding cane fields.
More food is what the
government would like - and has announced reforms to
encourage - but not at
the expense of sugar production. Even if its farm
reforms, modelled on those
that proved so successful in China and Vietnam,
do produce results, boostin
g sugar production will prove more difficult.
But Cuban officials say it is
imperative to help haul the country out of its
four-year-old recession that
has seen the economy's buying power (its
capacity to import using available
export revenues) contract from USDollars
8bn in 1989 to Dollars 1.7bn in 199
3.
'Cuba is a sugar economy . . . . Economic recovery must come through
reco
very in the sugar harvests,' Mr Octavio Castilla, deputy minister for
foreig
n investment and economic co-operation, said.
From this Saturday, Cuba's far
mers will gradually start legally selling
produce directly to the public. Un
der reforms detailed last week, state
farms and individual growers, excludin
g sugar co-operatives, will be allowed
freely to set their own prices to sel
l surplus fruit and vegetables after
they have fulfilled government supply q
uotas.
The reforms, part of an on-going cautious process of economic
liberal
isation, are aimed at easing chronic food shortages and combating the
flouri
shing black market. To some extent they amount to the legalisation of
an alr
eady widespread sale of black market produce by Cuban farmers which
has resu
lted in inflationary black market prices.
'I am sure that with this legislat
ion we can stimulate food production
through the law of supply and demand,'
Cuban defence minister Raul Castro,
brother of President Fidel Castro, said.
The strategic sugar sector appears headed for another difficult season. It
was one of the areas hardest hit by the unravelling of the comfortable
cocoo
n of preferential trade and aid ties Cuba had enjoyed with the now
defunct S
oviet bloc. The impact of this economic shock has been compounded
by a US tr
ade and financial embargo that remains firmly in place.
The 1992-93 sugar ha
rvest, hit by bad weather and shortages of fuel,
fertilisers and spares, was
only 4.2m tonnes, a 40 per cent drop from the
previous season. The 1993-94
crop fell lower still. Cuba put it at just
above 4m tonnes. Some internation
al traders said it was even lower.
Sugar is not just the island's biggest ex
port earner, accounting for about
40 per cent of total external revenue in 1
993. It is also a key commodity to
trade for vital oil imports and is closel
y inter-linked with other sectors
such as farming, export rum production and
energy generation.
As Cuba prepares for the start of the next harvest in No
vember, alarm bells
are sounding about sloppy preparations. In unusually fra
nk reports, the
state media have criticised poor repairs and maintenance at
sugar mills,
delays in new cane plantings and the failure of sugar workers t
o weed
growing cane fields.
'One of the most critical points at this time is
the sugar harvest,' Mr
Castilla said. He said urgent reforms were needed to
de-centralise,
re-organise and revitalise the sugar sector.
Incentives for
sugar workers either in the form of bonuses or improved
access to necessary
consumer goods in exchange for higher productivity,
similar to those already
introduced in the tourism sector, are being
discussed.
If this season's har
vest is as bad, or worse, than the last, gross earnings
from tourism could o
vertake sugar as the island's leading hard currency
earner. The tourism indu
stry, one of the first to be opened to foreign
investment, had became more p
rofitable and cost effective as the number of
foreign visitors increased.
Fi
gures published by Cuba's Centre for Studies on the Cuban Economy show
that
tourism grossed Dollars 650m in 1993 - net earnings are substantially
less b
ecause of the imports needed to service the tourist industry -
compared with
Dollars 720m earned by sugar exports.
Besides tourism, foreign investors, e
specially Mexicans, are putting money
into textiles, cement, steel and glass
manufacturing, cosmetics production
and citrus farming. Canadians are leadi
ng the field in the oil exploration
and mining sectors.
One additional exter
nal squeeze will come from the US government's decision
on August 20 to rest
rict dollar remittances sent to relatives in Cuba by
Cuban-Americans living
in the US. Mr Jose Luis Rodrguez, the finance
minister, said this would hurt
, but described as 'exaggerated' US reports
that the remittances represented
Dollars 500m of income for Cuba each year.
Over the last 18 months, the gov
ernment has lifted a ban on Cubans using
hard currency, legalised limited pr
ivate initiative in some trades and
crafts and moved to balance the country'
s lopsided internal finances through
cutting subsidies, starting a tax syste
m and raising prices of utilities and
consumer goods such as alcohol and cig
arettes.
'We're moving, we're not standing about with our arms crossed. Ther
e is a
process of reform in progress,' Osvaldo Martnez, president of the Cub
an
parliament's Economy Commission, said.
But it is clear the reform process
will be cautious and controlled and
limited by the government's expressed i
ntention to preserve its one-party
socialist system. 'We can't let the proce
ss run away from us,' Mr Martnez
said.
The government's dilemma is that it m
ust move quickly enough to respond to
popular pressure in demands for improv
ed economic conditions while not
letting the momentum of economic reform wre
st centralised control of the
economy completely from it hands.
Countries:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
<
IN>P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
P9611 Administration of General Econ
omic Programs.
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy.
Types:-
MKTS Production.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
ECON
Economic Indicators.
The Financial Times
London Pag
e 5
============= Transaction # 119 ==============================================
Transaction #: 119 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:00:04
Selec. Rec. #: 14
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-334
_AN-EI2D5AF8FT
94092
9
FT 29 SEP 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar defi
cit put at 1.8m tonnes
By DEBORAH HARGREAVES
The world faces another deficit year in sugar supplies after a wor
sening in
prospects for this year's crop, according to the latest report by
ED & F.
Man, the UK commodities house. Sugar production is forecast to be 11
0.7m
tonnes for the next crop year (1994-1995) leaving a shortfall of 1.8m
t
onnes.
World supplies are tight after the unloading of stocks in the current
crop
year when production of 109.03m tonnes led to a deficit of 2.2m tonnes
. The
two deficit years come after 12 years' of production surpluses with su
pply
tightness pushing prices higher.
A poor crop in China and difficulties
in Cuba combined with India's desire
to increase imports and rebuild stocks
could push prices higher.
China's cane crop has been damaged by flooding. Ma
n's estimate for Cuba's
crop next year is 3.5m tonnes.
Countrie
s:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0133 Sugarcane
and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
MKTS Production.
T
he Financial Times
London Page 36
============= Transaction # 120 ==============================================
Transaction #: 120 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:00:19
Selec. Rec. #: 15
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16799
_AN-EAGC3AFBFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Washingt
on holds key to Cuba's farming future - Agricultural exports could blossom i
f the US lifted its embargo
By CANUTE JAMES
Cuban agriculture could become a significant force on markets, incl
uding the
US, if Washington's trade embargo on the Caribbean island was lift
ed,
according to a group of experts that discussed the island's agriculture
at a
recent conference in Miami on Central American and Caribbean trade.
It
also concluded, however, that it would take the country many years after
the
ending of an embargo to adjust to a global market very different from
that
which prevailed at the time of the 1959 revolution.
It was also thought unli
kely that the island republic would be able to
regain any of the significant
markets it lost, as these had been taken over
by other producers who would
not easily be dislodged.
'Cuba has not been sitting still in agriculture des
pite the many setbacks,'
said Mr John Lamb, associate director for internati
onal trade of Chemonics
International of the US. 'The sector employs 19 per
cent of the country's
workers and accounts for 75 per cent of its foreign ea
rnings.' The changes
to Cuba's agriculture that were implemented by the gove
rnment last September
were intended to deal with current problems of product
ion shortfalls, and
did not seek to lift production to find new markets, the
experts concluded.
The Cuban government has allowed increased private parti
cipation in
agriculture with the establishment of new co-operative farms and
individually-run farms - but these still operate within the framework of th
e
state's continuing control of the economy.
The sugar industry, the main pi
llar of Cuban agriculture, would face some
difficulty in regaining markets e
ven if the embargo was lifted, Mr Lamb
said. He noted that before the 1959 r
evolution, Cuba had a half of the US
sugar market at a time when US cane sug
ar imports were about 6m tonnes a
year. But US cane sugar consumption was no
w only about 3m tonnes a year.
The experts reasoned that, if the trade embar
go ended, Cuba could be
attractive to US investors in agriculture wanting an
offshore location. Mr
Lamb said the island had good soil and flat land, ade
quate water, a large,
trained labour force, minimal pest problems, good port
s and a sound internal
transportation infrastructure.
The Cuban citrus indus
try was supported by an extensive research system,
said Mr Gene Albrigo, a h
orticulturalist with the Citrus Research and
Education Centre of the Univers
ity of Florida. 'Over 60 per cent of the
trees are under 15 years old. There
are adequate facilities in the packing
houses, of which there are 25, with
two more being built.
The industry has several forms of joint agreements wit
h Chilean, British,
Spanish, Israeli and Greek companies.' Cuba's impact on
the US or other
markets would not be immediate if the embargo was lifted, th
e experts
concluded. They expected that first efforts would be for an expans
ion of
domestic food crops for local consumption, and a rehabilitation of th
e sugar
industry because of its importance to the national economy. It would
also
take some time for the expected disputes over land tenure and land own
ership
to be resolved.
The US government has warned prospective foreign inve
stors in Cuba not to
become involved with property that was seized by the go
vernment and could be
the subject of legal disputes if and when there is a c
hange of government in
the island.
'Salinity is also a very big and growing
problem,' reported Mr Albrigo.
'This has reached a crisis in some parts of t
he coast and across the centre
of the island. If this continues it will be a
disaster, particularly for
fruit and vegetables.'
In addition to expanded p
roduction of the traditional commodities (sugar,
citrus, coffee, tobacco) to
satisfy a new market, Cuba has the potential to
become an important source
of horticultural products for North America. Some
participants in the confer
ence concluded that this was an area of the
island's agriculture that could
bloom in a post-embargo Cuba.
'Cuba was once a major exporter of vegetables,
but the market has been taken
over by Mexico since the embargo,' said Mr La
mb. 'Cuban access to the US
market in the future will have an adverse impact
on producers in the
Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and Florida, especia
lly in the production
of vegetables and horticulture.'
Mr Carlos Balerdi, a
tropical fruit crops agent in the agricultural
extension service of Dade Cou
nty, Florida, thought that one major hurdle for
Cuban agriculture if and whe
n the embargo was lifted could be psychological.
'One problem is that agricu
ltural work has been used as a penalty for
dissidents and those trying to le
ave the island,' he said. 'This may cause a
very negative psychological reac
tion to agriculture in a future Cuba.'
Countries:-
CU
Z Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P0133 Sugarcane and Su
gar Beets.
P0174 Citrus Fruits.
P01 Agricultural Production-Crops.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
MKTS Foreign tr
ade.
The Financial Times
London Page 20
============= Transaction # 121 ==============================================
Transaction #: 121 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:01:04
Selec. Rec. #: 16
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-3603
_AN-CCMBUADIFT
9203
13
FT 13 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Problems
piling up for Caribbean sugar sector - A wave of labour unrest is adding to
the woes of a struggling industry, writes Canute James
By CANUTE JAMES
A WAVE of industrial unrest in the Carib
bean sugar industry has compounded
earlier problems caused by falling produc
tion and changes in important
markets.
Exporters are having difficulty in re
taining traditional markets and no new
ones are available; some export quota
s have been reduced while some export
commitments are not being fulfilled.
T
he pain is most evident in Barbados, for which the sugar industry is a
relat
ively small but important pillar of the troubled economy. An eight-week
stri
ke that delayed the start of this year's harvest has reduced production
at a
time when the financially strapped industry has been trying to catch
its br
eath.
The industry was shut down late last year because it ran out of money.
The
privately-owned Barbados Sugar Industry Ltd, which operates the island'
s
mills, owes a state-owned bank about USDollars 87m. New money has not been
available because the government is under pressure to reduce state spending
.
It took a loan of Pounds 5m from Barclays Bank of the UK to get the indust
ry
up on its feet again, but preparations by millers to start processing can
e
in January were frustrated by a strike. Unions demanded an increase in wag
es
but the millers said they were unable to pay because of their weak financ
es.
It took the intervention of the country's prime minister to break the
im
passe.
The industry is forecasting production of 50,000 tonnes for this year
, which
will not be enough to meet its quotas to the European Community and
the US
while satisfying domestic demand, for which about 73,000 tonnes would
be
needed.
Failure to fill export quotas has also been a major worry for th
e Guyanese
sugar industry. In each of the past three years the country has p
leaded
force majeure on scheduled shipments to the European Community as pro
duction
has faltered because of strikes and poor weather.
The industry expec
ts to meet its EC quota of 167,000 tonnes this year
although production was
only 155,000 tonnes last year, 25,000 tonnes more
than in 1990. Like other c
ountries that fear a loss of their quotas if they
do not meet the supply sch
edules, Guyana and Barbados may be forced to
import sugar for the domestic m
arket.
'The logic here is quite simple,' explains a Jamaican trade official.
'The
preferential markets such as the EC pay more than the exporters would
get on
the world market. So they ensure they meet their quotas and then buy
cheaply
on the world market for domestic consumption. The EC and the US do n
ot like
this practice, but it is done fairly often.'
In Guyana and Barbados
efforts are being made to improve the management of
the sugar industry and r
aise productivity. Booker Tate, a subsidiary of
Booker of the UK, is managin
g the state-owned industry in Guyana, and will
begin running the Barbados in
dustry later this year.
The marginal improvement in output by the Jamaican i
ndustry over the past
two years was halted by a two-week strike at the islan
d's nine mills that
ended this week. This year's target of 230,000 tonnes, i
f it is achieved,
will allow the island to meet its quota commitments.
The a
dministrators of the industry in the Caribbean complain that region's
market
ing and production plans are being adversely affected by changing
conditions
in important markets, such as the US, where adjustments to import
quotas ar
e frequent. In the current crop year, for example, most of the
Caribbean pro
ducers have had their US quota cut by 35 per cent, and others
by 10 per cent
.
These changes, which are influenced mainly by the level of domestic US
pro
duction, are expected to reduce the Caribbean region's earnings by about
USD
ollars 70m. The reduction is hitting hardest in the Dominican Republic,
wher
e industry has been in decline for the past decade. The cut of 35 per
cent i
n its US quota to 232,500 tonnes this year might have been less
painful had
it not been for uncertainty over another valuable market. The
Dominicans had
been supplying between 50,000 tonnes and 225,000 tonnes a
year to the Sovie
t Union. But with the break-up of the union Dominican
industry officials and
bankers say there is uncertainty about future of
sales to the Commonwealth
of Independent States, as it is now called.
Like most of the other Caribbean
producers, production costs in the
Dominican Republic, which produced 628,0
00 tonnes last year, exceed world
market prices.
Strikes and production cost
s are not likely to be among the problems facing
the sugar sector in Cuba, t
he region's largest producer. Since the break-up
of the Soviet Union, which
was the island's major market, short term
contracts with members of the CIS
have brought some relief. But a
significant reduction in output is likely th
is year because of a late start
to harvesting and a shortage of fuel which h
as overtaken the embattled
economy. There are indications that output this y
ear will be about 1m tonnes
less than last year's 7.6m tonnes.
The US indust
ry, however, is already weighing the consequences of the
changes in Cuba's m
arkets, with suggestions that this could leave the island
with millions of t
onnes to dispose of on the world market. Depression of
prices would be compo
unded by a likely loss of market for some of Cuba's
neighbours, particularly
if there were political changes on the island.
'In a post-Castro Cuba, the
US would try to assist a new government if it is
democratic,' suggests Mr Ju
lio Herrera, president of the Caribbean Basin
Sugar Producers Group. 'Cuba w
ill inevitably turn to the US as a market for
its sugar. The US will be told
that it has a moral obligation to buy Cuban
sugar.'
The Financ
ial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 122 ==============================================
Transaction #: 122 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:02:34
Selec. Rec. #: 17
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-16800
_AN-EAGC3AFAFT
940
107
FT 07 JAN 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: India se
en making heavy sugar imports
By REUTER
BOMBAY
India will have to import up to 500,00
0 tonnes of sugar in 1993-94 to meet
its growing consumption, according to t
he Centre for Monitoring the Indian
Economy, reports Reuter from Bombay.
CMI
E, a privately-funded research body, estimated the season's opening sugar
st
ock at 3.3m tonnes and production at 11.5m tonnes, against a domestic
consum
ption of 12.2m.
'However, about 500,000 tonnes of sugar would have to be imp
orted during the
year to maintain a healthy year-end stock level,' the centr
e said.
It suggested that the government might also allow more imports of ra
w sugar
for refining and re-export. The commerce ministry had allowed an imp
ort of
50,000 tonnes of raw sugar last month for re-export after refining.
'
More imports may be allowed after evaluating the impact of the initial flow
in the domestic markets,' CMIE said.
The government had agreed to imports of
raw sugar after the sugar industry
suggested the idea to maintain its prese
nce in the market, where prices had
been on the rise. According to the CMIE,
domestic sugar prices in December
were 7 per cent higher than in November a
nd 37 per cent higher than in
December 1992. But sugar industry oficials sai
d the Indian Sugar Industry
Export Corporation, the private sector agency au
thorised to import raw
sugar, had not bought any because of high internation
al prices.
'At the moment we have not gone for any purchases. We have not ap
plied our
mind to the proposal,' said Mr SL Jain of the Indian Sugar Mills'
Association. 'The present international price situation of raw sugar and
whi
te sugar is not compatible with the government policy on value addition.'
Countries:-
INZ India, Asia.
Industries:-
<
/XX>
P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
MKTS
Foreign trade.
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
London Page 20
============= Transaction # 123 ==============================================
Transaction #: 123 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:03:10
Selec. Rec. #: 18
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT933-15393
_AN-DGICIAA3FT
930
709
FT 09 JUL 93 / Caricom and Cuba in trade agreement <
/HEADLINE>
By CANUTE JAMES
NASSAU, THE B
AHAMAS
In a diplomatic triumph for Cuba, its neighbours i
n the Caribbean Community
(Caricom) have agreed to set up a joint commission
with the island to
oversee co-operation in areas such as trade and the suga
r industry, writes
Canute James in Nassau, the Bahamas.
The agreement follow
ed a call by the 13 Caricom nations for the lifting of
the 30-year-old US tr
ade and economic embargo against Cuba.
The commission will seek to increase
trade between Cuba and Caricom and
foster co-operation on sugar cane yields
and sugar by-products. It will also
promote the development of livestock and
fisheries and combine biotechnology
research.
The US has not welcomed the a
greement. 'Caricom is made up of democratic
countries and Cuba is not democr
atic,' said a senior US State Department
official attending the conference.
Countries:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industri
es:-
P2061 Raw Cane Sugar.
P2062 Cane Sugar Refining.
P206
3 Beet Sugar.
P9721 International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page
3
============= Transaction # 124 ==============================================
Transaction #: 124 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:03:32
Selec. Rec. #: 20
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12680
_AN-EKAEZAAVFT
941
101
FT 01 NOV 94 / Cuba opens up to more investment from
overseas
By PASCAL FLETCHER
HAVANA
Cuba is to open up more of its recession-hit econ
omy to foreign investment,
including real estate, services and sugar product
ion.
Vice-President Carlos Lage told a news conference in Havana at the week
end
that the government was also preparing a new foreign investment law that
would give more protection to overseas investors, who are already active in
Cuba in activities ranging from oil exploration to citrus production.
Cuba
began opening up its state-run economy to external investment after
1989 to
offset the devastating impact of the collapse of its preferential
trade and
aid ties with the former Soviet bloc.
'From now onwards, no productive secto
r will be excluded from investment by
foreign capital,' Mr Lage said. Up to
now, raw sugar production,
traditionally the island's biggest export earner,
had been explicitly closed
to foreign investment. But the sugar industry is
in deep crisis and has
suffered two consecutive disastrously low harvests.
Mr Lage also announced that, in defiance of a continuing US economic embargo
against Cuba, representatives of more than 69 US companies had visited the
island in the first half of this year to discuss business prospects.
In some
cases, letters of intent for future contracts had been negotiated to
take e
ffect when the US embargo was finally lifted by Washington.
Representatives
of two British sugar companies, Tate & Lyle, and ED&F Man,
have held talks t
his year with Cuban investment officials.
Shortages of essential inputs prev
iously supplied by the former Soviet
Union, such as fuel, spare parts, ferti
lisers and herbicides, have crippled
Cuba's sugar production since 1990.
On
Cuba's economy, Mr Lage said it was still too early to talk of recovery.
But
he cited some positive signs, such as the growth of foreign investment,
par
ticularly in tourism and oil exploration, improvements in construction,
ceme
nt and nickel production and progress in the government's efforts to
stabili
se the country's internal finances.
Countries:-
CUZ
Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9611 Administration of G
eneral Economic Programs.
P9311 Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy.
P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
GOVT Gove
rnment News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 125 ==============================================
Transaction #: 125 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:04:09
Selec. Rec. #: 21
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT942-16668
_AN-EDHDEAF1FT
940
408
FT 08 APR 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba pla
ns sales to China as harvest hopes fade
By CANUTE JA
MES
KINGSTON, JAMAICA
Cuba is to
sell an unspecified quantity of sugar to China this year, amid
indications t
hat the yield from the shortened 1994 harvest will be less than
the governme
nt had previously expected.
The sale is part of a wider trade agreement betw
een the two countries, under
which Cuba will purchase Chinese food and medic
ine, according to Prensa
Latina, the official Cuban news agency.
Diplomats i
n Havana, the island's capital, said this week that the Cuban
government was
now estimating sugar production this year at 'no more than 5m
tonnes', foll
owing last year's 4.2m tonnes.
They said government officials had spoken at
the start of the harvest of a
likely yield of 1m tonnes more than last year.
The current harvest has been shortened by the government, which wants it
co
ncluded at the end of April to allow more time for planting additional
acrea
ge for future harvests, as part of efforts to rehabilitate the
industry.
Zam
bia's industry is to receive technical and industrial assistance from
Cuba,
under an agreement in principle between both countries. Cuba will help
Zambi
a with sugar production and the development of a range of bi-products,
accor
ding to Zambia's foreign minister who visited Cuba last week.
C
ountries:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
CNZ China, Asia.
ZMZ Za
mbia, Africa.
Industries:-
P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Be
ets.
Types:-
MKTS Foreign trade.
NEWS General New
s.
The Financial Times
London Page 32
============= Transaction # 126 ==============================================
Transaction #: 126 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:04:31
Selec. Rec. #: 22
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT933-11808
_AN-DG1B8ABAFT
930
728
FT 28 JUL 93 / Castro to open up Cuba's ailing econo
my
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO C
ITY
PRESIDENT Fidel Castro has indicated that he will pur
sue further economic
reforms to prop up Cuba's battered economy, including a
greater opening to
foreign investment and permitting Cubans to hold foreign
currency.
Such proposals did not constitute 'magic formulas', he said, and
not all
Cubans would benefit. But 'we are ready to do everything that is nec
essary
to save the fatherland, the revolution and the triumphs of socialism;
that
is to say we will not be dogmatic nor mad'.
Mr Castro, speaking on Mon
day, the 40th anniversary of a guerrilla attack
that officially marks the be
ginning of the Cuban revolution, painted a stark
picture of the country's ec
onomic plight. He said imports this year would be
just Dollars 1.7bn, agains
t Dollars 2.2bn last year and Dollars 8.1bn in
1991, as a result of Cuba's c
ollapsing hard currency receipts. Bad weather
and fuel shortages caused the
sugar crop to fall to 4.2m tonnes this year,
leading to a reduction of about
Dollars 450m in sugar earnings.
While the regulation of ownership of hard c
urrency was still under study,
all Cubans would be able to use their foreign
currency in specially
designated dollar shops.
When the new laws were passe
d, Cuba would introduce a national convertible
currency, Mr Castro indicated
. Apparently, this will not replace the Cuban
peso as the currency of everyd
ay transactions.
The Cuban government hopes that the measures will encourage
exiles to send
dollars to relatives, who will then convert the currency, po
ssibly for
dollar vouchers. In an effort to boost such revenues, Mr Castro s
aid he
would allow more visits to Cuba from Cubans living abroad.
Under US l
aw its citizens can give up to Dollars 300 a quarter to a relative
in Cuba.
The US State Department said Cuba's decision to legalise ownership
of dollar
s would not affect these limitations.
Mr Castro said the government would en
courage 'all productive activities and
services that generate convertible cu
rrencies', especially in tourism.
Countries:-
CUZ Cu
ba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9311 Finance, Taxation, an
d Monetary Policy.
P9611 Administration of General Economic Programs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Time
s
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 127 ==============================================
Transaction #: 127 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:04:48
Selec. Rec. #: 24
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT941-9908
_AN-EBKCTAGIFT
9402
11
FT 11 FEB 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar cro
p estimate reduced
By DEBORAH HARGREAVES
<
TEXT>
ED & F. Man, the London commodities trading company has cut its estima
te of
this year's world sugar crop by 1.6m tonnes to 110.8m. Its latest repo
rt on
the market outlook puts consumption at 113.3m tonnes, leaving a defici
t of
2.5m tonnes.
The sugar crops in Thailand, Cuba, India and South Africa
have failed to
recover fully from last season's reduced output. In addition,
shortfalls
have emerged in China, Argentina and Mauritius.
New York sugar p
rices have remained at about 11 cents a pound, however,
reflecting uncertain
ty about the prospects for demand. Flat consumption in
east and central Euro
pe and rumoured changes to the Russian import tariffs
for sugar have had a d
ampening effect on prices.
Meanwhile, the Economist Intelligence Unit says i
mproved prospects for most
soft commodities are holding, though the impact o
f adverse weather in North
America on grains and oilseeds is fading.
In the
February issue of its World Commodity Forecast, the EIU says it sees
little
prospect of physical demand for metals picking up this year but that
demand
from futures markets has been booming.
Countries:-
XA
Z World.
USZ United States of America.
Industries:-
<
IN>P0133 Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
COSTS Comm
odity prices.
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 128 ==============================================
Transaction #: 128 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:05:17
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 32430 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 129 ==============================================
Transaction #: 129 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:05:24
Selec. Rec. #: 26
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-3394
_AN-DCPCCAGAFT
9303
16
FT 16 MAR 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar sto
rms to three-year highs
By DAVID BLACKWELL
WORLD SUGAR prices, already moving ahead on successive reductions in
the
Thai crop estimate, surged to the highest level for nearly three years
yesterday on news that the storms sweeping up the eastern seaboard of the US
had hit Cuba.
In New York the May raw sugar contract was up 0.95 at 11.50 c
ents a lb in
late trading, having touched a peak of 11.83 cents earlier. In
London the
August white sugar contract closed at Dollars 297.50 a tonne, up
Dollars 13
on the day.
However, analysts in London were cautious over the da
mage to Cuba's crop,
which was already expected to be well down on last year
's 7m tonnes. Some
are talking of 5m tonnes and under, but there is no hard
evidence on which
to base a judgment.
Talk of damage to sugar mills and dock
facilities in Cuba added further fuel
to the flames. 'The Cubans have a ves
ted interest in allowing people to
think it's terrible, ' said Mr Chris Pack
, analyst at Czarnikow. 'But it
can't have done any good to have a tremendou
s storm at the start of the
season.'
Last week the Thai government revised i
ts production estimate down to 3.51m
tonnes - the lowest level for five year
s. At the beginning of the season
production was expected to reach a record
5m tonnes, but drought has damaged
the crop.
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
Types:-
COSTS Commodity prices.
The Financial
Times
London Page 38
============= Transaction # 130 ==============================================
Transaction #: 130 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:06:23
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12369
_AN-EKBD9AA5FT
941
102
FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER
MOSCOW, HAVANA
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba,
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with
Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active -
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, Eas
t Europe.
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9721
International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 131 ==============================================
Transaction #: 131 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:06:23
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-9644
_AN-CBKBQACWFT
9202
11
FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
sugar crop forecast
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO CITY
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 132 ==============================================
Transaction #: 132 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:06:25
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 133 ==============================================
Transaction #: 133 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:06:30
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 134 ==============================================
Transaction #: 134 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:06:35
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind Default:1,3
============= Transaction # 135 ==============================================
Transaction #: 135 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:07:21
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 209374 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 136 ==============================================
Transaction #: 136 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:07:35
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 137 ==============================================
Transaction #: 137 Transaction Code: 26 (Saved Recs. Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:07:58
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 138 ==============================================
Transaction #: 138 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:04
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-9644
_AN-CBKBQACWFT
9202
11
FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
sugar crop forecast
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO CITY
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 139 ==============================================
Transaction #: 139 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:05
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12369
_AN-EKBD9AA5FT
941
102
FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER
MOSCOW, HAVANA
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba,
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with
Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active -
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, Eas
t Europe.
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9721
International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 140 ==============================================
Transaction #: 140 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:09
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-11926
_AN-EKCEGAGJFT
941
103
FT 03 NOV 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba str
uggles to revive sugar sector - A look at problems dogging the mainstay of t
he country's economy
By PASCAL FLETCHER
Cuba's sugar harvest, mainstay of the island's economy, could soon begi
n to
level out after its recent nosedive, but a return to cruising altitude
looks
a long way off.
Just five years ago output was running at a comfortabl
e 8m tonnes a year.
But then it went into a tailspin. The crop fell to a his
toric low of 4m
tonnes in 1993-94 from 4.2m tonnes in 1992-93 and 7m tonnes
the previous
year.
This represented lost export earnings over two harvests o
f Dollars 1bn, a
heavy blow for a sugar-dominated, recession-hit economy who
se total export
revenue in 1993 was an estimated Dollars 1.7 bn.
Faced with
continuing severe input shortages and a reduced level of
harvestable cane, t
he best Cuba can hope for from the 1994-95 season is to
slow the decline in
its leading export industry. If it can do this, the
island may be able to la
y some foundations for a future recovery. But it
will be a hard slog.
Sugar
market analysts, such as London trade house ED & F. Man, have already
predic
ted that Cuban output will continue to fall in 1994-95. Even the Cuban
autho
rities, normally loath to make any public pre-harvest forecasts, are
signall
ing that they expect a crop as low as or lower than last year.
'This is not
a time for spectacular results measured in large volumes of
sugar,' the offi
cial workers' daily Trabajadores said in an October 10
editorial.
'Sugar pro
duction suffers from a syndrome of cycles, either good or bad. . .
if you ha
d a bad previous harvest, recovery is difficult,' said Mr Juan
Triana Cordov
i, deputy director of Havana University's Centre for Studies on
the Cuban Ec
onomy.
It was the sudden collapse after 1990 of crucial Soviet supplies of f
uel,
fertiliser, herbicides and spares that knocked Cuban sugar production o
ff
course. Recent harvests have also been buffeted by unseasonal bad weather
and slowed by declining efficiency.
The antidote proposed by Mr Nelson Torr
es, Cuba's minister for sugar, is a
short, sharp and above all efficient 199
4-95 harvest.
This year's campaign, if it starts this month as usual, will n
ot be allowed
to extend beyond April. In another change of strategy, all of
Cuba's more
than 150 mills will be required to join the harvest to maximise
production.
Last season, more than a dozen below-par mills did not operate,
with the
result that their machinery was 'cannibalised' for other uses and t
heir work
forces dispersed.
The over-extended 1993-94 harvest, which lasted
well beyond May, cut into
growing cane reserves and delayed field cultivatio
n and mill repairs. Mill
managers, struggling to meet pre-set production tar
gets and to compensate
for industrial breakdowns and inefficiency, harvested
cane that could have
been left for the coming season.
Granma, the official
Communist Party newspaper, said in a September 2
article: 'There is going to
be once again - it's no secret - a serious
shortage of cane'. That echoed a
n August, ED & F. Man report warning that
the protracted 1993-94 campaign, c
ontinuing input shortages and reports of
delays in the planting programme me
ant that 'further degradation of (Cuba's)
sugar production cannot be elimina
ted'.
As the start of the harvest approaches, sugar workers have been the ta
rget
of a blitz of official criticism. State media have accused them of duck
ing
out of eight-hour work schedules, using poor quality seed and failing to
weed growing cane. 'Why is the cane in such poor state. . . so full of
weed
s?' state-run Radio Rebelde asked back in September.
Especially targetted fo
r criticism were the cane growing co-operatives, the
so-called basic units o
f co-operative production (UBPCs), created in
September, 1993 as part of a d
ecentralising reform of Cuba's state-run
farming system. 'Why have these UBP
Cs still not been able to contain and
reverse the sharp collapse of the nati
on's greatest resource?' Mr
Trabajadores said six weeks ago.
Reasons cited f
or poor productivity in the cane co-operatives were the lack
of incentives,
delays in obtaining promised benefits like new housing and
even shortages of
work clothes like boots. Government officials were
studying the possibility
of introducing greater material incentives for
sugar workers - whether in l
ocal or hard currency or in access to consumer
goods - like those already av
ailable for workers in Cuba's tourist industry.
To offset harvest manpower s
hortages, Cuba's official trade union
organisation, the CTC, is preparing to
mobilise 61,000 cane cutters across
the island, 25,000 more than last year.
This manual cutting force will also
help to compensate for cutbacks in mach
ine harvesting resulting from
shortages of fuel, lubricants and spare parts.
On the commercial front, Cuba has maintained a hermetic silence over the
st
ate of its strategic sugar trade contracts with Russia and China. Traders
in
London and New York reported as early as June that the country might have
p
roblems meeting all of its export commitments because of the second
consecut
ive low harvest. The Cubans were expected to have sought to roll
over many o
f their commitments into the next crop period, a tactic widely
used even whe
n the island was producing harvests of about 8m tonnes.
The roll-over mechan
ism is considerably less drastic than the force majeure
declared by Cuba in
June, 1993, when torrential rains devastated an already
flagging harvest.
Countries:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries
:-
P2062 Cane Sugar Refining.
P2061 Raw Cane Sugar.
P0133
Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Anal
ysis.
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
Lon
don Page 35
============= Transaction # 141 ==============================================
Transaction #: 141 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:11
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9039
_AN-EHNABACHFT
9408
13
FT 13 AUG 94 / Commodities (Week in the Markets): Cof
fee traders cautious
By DEBORAH HARGREAVES and KENNE
TH GOODING
The coffee market had a nervous week following a
sharp fall in prices on
Monday as speculators and hedge funds baled out of
futures contracts in New
York to push prices down by 11 per cent.
Monday's s
ell-off on the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange was followed by a
drop of al
most Dollars 200 a tonne in London prices on Tuesday. This pushed
the market
down to Dollars 3,195 a tonne for the November futures contract
at the Lond
on Commodity Exchange.
The market managed to claw back some of its losses la
ter in the week, but
trading remained thin and jittery and last night, at Do
llars 3,285, prices
were still almost 11 per cent lower than Monday's open.
Traders were reluctant to push the coffee market strongly in any direction
a
nd stayed cautious ahead of the US Department of Agriculture report on the
e
xtent of frost damage to Brazil's coffee trees, expected late yesterday.
Mar
ket participants were expecting US estimates to be more optimistic than
Braz
il's own predictions.
The Brazilian authorities estimate that up to 11m bags
or 40 per cent of the
1995 coffee crop has been affected by the frost. Trad
ers believe the US
assessment will put the extent of the damage at between 3
m and 5m bags.
That means the USDA is likely to estimate a crop of between 1
8m and 21m bags
for 1995 while Brazil expects a smaller 17m bags.
Mr Lawrenc
e Eagles, analyst at GNI, the London brokers, said many traders
were waiting
until after the trees flower in September for renewed
assessments of the da
mage. 'Undoubtedly at some stage there will be another
run-up in price, but
the market could fall another Dollars 500 a tonne
before that happens,' he s
aid.
Another USDA report about the prospects for this year's US harvest boos
ted
wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday. The USDA reduced
its
forecast of world wheat output by 5m tonnes to 541.95m tonnes, pushing
wheat
futures prices up by 3 cents to Dollars 3.50 a bushel. The USDA also
f
orecast improved prospects for US wheat exports as well as record US crops
o
f maize and soyabeans.
Meanwhile, this week there was more evidence that the
unprecedented
international trade agreement encouraging aluminium producers
to cut output
is having an increasing impact on the huge surplus that depre
ssed prices for
so long. The International Primary Aluminium Institute said
producer stocks
fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, by 12,000 ton
nes to 1.993m
tonnes.
Since February, when trade delegates from six of the m
ajor
aluminium-producing regions signed a 'memorandum of understanding' abou
t
production cuts, producer stocks have fallen by 141,000 tonnes or 6.6 per
cent. LME stocks also fell in June - the first time in nearly four years
tha
t IPAI and LME stocks had fallen in the same month.
Yesterday the LME report
ed that its stocks had fallen again and Mr Anatoly
Shleyev, head of the stat
istics department at Russia's state metallurgy
committee, suggested his coun
try would be able to meet its promised annual
production cuts of 500,000 ton
nes this year. Nevertheless, he said Russian
aluminium exports were likely t
o be 2m tonnes compared with last year's 1.6m
tonnes. Aluminium for delivery
in three months closed at Dollars 1,490.50 a
tonne on the LME last night, D
ollars 5.25 up on the day and Dollars 41.75 up
over the week.
-------------
-------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
----------------------
----------------------
(As at Thursday's close)
tonnes
--------------------
------------------------
Aluminium -11,175 to 2,491,050
Aluminium a
lloy -60 to 26,480
Copper +3,775 to 346,475
Lead
+2,725 to 365,425
Nickel +468 to 136,128
Zin
c +5,800 to 1,224,400
Tin +200 to 31,165
--------------------------------------------
Countries:-
GBZ United Kingdom, EC.
USZ United States of America.
BRZ B
razil, South America.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tre
e Nuts, NEC.
P6231 Security and Commodity Exchanges.
P0111 Wheat.
P1099 Metal Ores, NEC.
Types:-
MKTS Market data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Finan
cial Times
London Page 12
============= Transaction # 142 ==============================================
Transaction #: 142 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:15
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-3603
_AN-CCMBUADIFT
9203
13
FT 13 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Problems
piling up for Caribbean sugar sector - A wave of labour unrest is adding to
the woes of a struggling industry, writes Canute James
By CANUTE JAMES
A WAVE of industrial unrest in the Carib
bean sugar industry has compounded
earlier problems caused by falling produc
tion and changes in important
markets.
Exporters are having difficulty in re
taining traditional markets and no new
ones are available; some export quota
s have been reduced while some export
commitments are not being fulfilled.
T
he pain is most evident in Barbados, for which the sugar industry is a
relat
ively small but important pillar of the troubled economy. An eight-week
stri
ke that delayed the start of this year's harvest has reduced production
at a
time when the financially strapped industry has been trying to catch
its br
eath.
The industry was shut down late last year because it ran out of money.
The
privately-owned Barbados Sugar Industry Ltd, which operates the island'
s
mills, owes a state-owned bank about USDollars 87m. New money has not been
available because the government is under pressure to reduce state spending
.
It took a loan of Pounds 5m from Barclays Bank of the UK to get the indust
ry
up on its feet again, but preparations by millers to start processing can
e
in January were frustrated by a strike. Unions demanded an increase in wag
es
but the millers said they were unable to pay because of their weak financ
es.
It took the intervention of the country's prime minister to break the
im
passe.
The industry is forecasting production of 50,000 tonnes for this year
, which
will not be enough to meet its quotas to the European Community and
the US
while satisfying domestic demand, for which about 73,000 tonnes would
be
needed.
Failure to fill export quotas has also been a major worry for th
e Guyanese
sugar industry. In each of the past three years the country has p
leaded
force majeure on scheduled shipments to the European Community as pro
duction
has faltered because of strikes and poor weather.
The industry expec
ts to meet its EC quota of 167,000 tonnes this year
although production was
only 155,000 tonnes last year, 25,000 tonnes more
than in 1990. Like other c
ountries that fear a loss of their quotas if they
do not meet the supply sch
edules, Guyana and Barbados may be forced to
import sugar for the domestic m
arket.
'The logic here is quite simple,' explains a Jamaican trade official.
'The
preferential markets such as the EC pay more than the exporters would
get on
the world market. So they ensure they meet their quotas and then buy
cheaply
on the world market for domestic consumption. The EC and the US do n
ot like
this practice, but it is done fairly often.'
In Guyana and Barbados
efforts are being made to improve the management of
the sugar industry and r
aise productivity. Booker Tate, a subsidiary of
Booker of the UK, is managin
g the state-owned industry in Guyana, and will
begin running the Barbados in
dustry later this year.
The marginal improvement in output by the Jamaican i
ndustry over the past
two years was halted by a two-week strike at the islan
d's nine mills that
ended this week. This year's target of 230,000 tonnes, i
f it is achieved,
will allow the island to meet its quota commitments.
The a
dministrators of the industry in the Caribbean complain that region's
market
ing and production plans are being adversely affected by changing
conditions
in important markets, such as the US, where adjustments to import
quotas ar
e frequent. In the current crop year, for example, most of the
Caribbean pro
ducers have had their US quota cut by 35 per cent, and others
by 10 per cent
.
These changes, which are influenced mainly by the level of domestic US
pro
duction, are expected to reduce the Caribbean region's earnings by about
USD
ollars 70m. The reduction is hitting hardest in the Dominican Republic,
wher
e industry has been in decline for the past decade. The cut of 35 per
cent i
n its US quota to 232,500 tonnes this year might have been less
painful had
it not been for uncertainty over another valuable market. The
Dominicans had
been supplying between 50,000 tonnes and 225,000 tonnes a
year to the Sovie
t Union. But with the break-up of the union Dominican
industry officials and
bankers say there is uncertainty about future of
sales to the Commonwealth
of Independent States, as it is now called.
Like most of the other Caribbean
producers, production costs in the
Dominican Republic, which produced 628,0
00 tonnes last year, exceed world
market prices.
Strikes and production cost
s are not likely to be among the problems facing
the sugar sector in Cuba, t
he region's largest producer. Since the break-up
of the Soviet Union, which
was the island's major market, short term
contracts with members of the CIS
have brought some relief. But a
significant reduction in output is likely th
is year because of a late start
to harvesting and a shortage of fuel which h
as overtaken the embattled
economy. There are indications that output this y
ear will be about 1m tonnes
less than last year's 7.6m tonnes.
The US indust
ry, however, is already weighing the consequences of the
changes in Cuba's m
arkets, with suggestions that this could leave the island
with millions of t
onnes to dispose of on the world market. Depression of
prices would be compo
unded by a likely loss of market for some of Cuba's
neighbours, particularly
if there were political changes on the island.
'In a post-Castro Cuba, the
US would try to assist a new government if it is
democratic,' suggests Mr Ju
lio Herrera, president of the Caribbean Basin
Sugar Producers Group. 'Cuba w
ill inevitably turn to the US as a market for
its sugar. The US will be told
that it has a moral obligation to buy Cuban
sugar.'
The Financ
ial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 143 ==============================================
Transaction #: 143 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:08:19
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-8150
_AN-DBUAKACNFT
9302
20
FT 20 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture (Week in t
he markets): Sugar breaks into higher ground:
By RIC
HARD MOONEY
A SERIES of bullish developments this week enab
led the world sugar market to
break free of the strait-jacket that had been
confining prices for some
time.
Having traded mostly between 8 cents and 8.5
cents a lb since last autumn
the prompt March futures position at New York'
s Cocoa, Sugar and Coffee
Exchange leapt in mid-week to 9 cents, a level las
t seen on November 2, and
moved on to a five-month high of 9.53 cents before
edging back yesterday
afternoon.
Market sentiment has hardened in recent we
eks as analysts' assessments of
the likely sugar supply surplus in the 1992-
93 season have been reduced.
London trader ED & F. Man now expects supply to
exceed demand by some 1.5m
tonnes (about 1.3 per cent of annual production)
, compared with the 3.4m
tonnes it was forecasting earlier. And this week C.
Czarnikow, another
London trade house, which in November was forecasting an
830,000-tonnes
surplus, this week adjusted this to a 370,000-tonne deficit
(after allowing
for 'unrecorded disappearance' of 600,000 tonnes ).
However,
the factor that changed firmness into strength this week was talk
circulati
ng among traders that Cuba had been forced to buy 100,000 tonnes of
sugar fr
om Thailand to enable it to honour supply commitments to China and
other Asi
an countries. Cuban sugar minister Mr Juan Herrera warned earlier
this month
that lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the start-up of a
significa
nt number of mills'.
Also supporting the market were: a surprise announcemen
t of a 160,000-tonne
Kenyan buying tender for next Monday; a 14,000-tonne Mo
roccan buying tender;
talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonnes
sale to Indonesia; and
a cut in Thailand's harvest forecast from 49.15m tonn
es of cane to 43m
tonnes.
'There have been several important changes in the
statistical outlook for
the 1992-93 crop cycle with adjustments to the suppl
y side of the balance
predominating,' said Czarnikow in the February 17 issu
e of its Sugar Review.
'Production for the season has fallen by some 1.32m t
onnes since our world
forecasts in November and is now expected to slip belo
w last season's output
by some 1.87m tonnes.'
The trade house now estimates
world sugar production at 114.57m tonnes,
compared with 115.89m in November,
and consumption at 114.51m tonnes,
compared with 114.46m tonnes.
Cocoa pric
es put in another steady performance as producers and consumers
prepared for
next week's International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) negotiations
in Geneva. In
late trading yesterday the New York market's May position was
quoted at Dol
lars 932 a tonne, up Dollars 7 on the week. In London, however,
that firmnes
s was obscured by the dollar's decline against sterling and the
London Futur
es and Options Exchange's May cocoa contract ended Pounds 3 down
on the week
at Pounds 734 a tonne.
The Geneva meeting will mark the fourth and final at
tempt to agree a
price-stabilisation pact to replace the moribund one that e
xpires on
September 30. Delegates were moving towards agreement at the last
session,
in November, that efforts to steady the market should be based on t
he
withholding of between 330,000 and 380,000 tonnes of surplus beans from t
he
market. But they remained far apart on how that was to be financed and on
what price range was to be defended.
The existing ICCA, agreed in 1986, cea
sed to operate as a market support
pact early in 1988, when its buffer stock
reached the 250,000-tonnes
ceiling.
All but one of the London Metal Exchang
e's contracts finished down on the
week, the biggest fall being in copper, w
hich closed yesterday at Pounds
1,551.25 a tonne for three months delivery,
down Pounds 30.50 on the week.
But, as with cocoa's fall, the culprit was th
e sterling rally, but for which
the price would have been modestly higher.
D
ealers said the copper market was supported by concern over production
stopp
ages in Mexico and Papua New Guinea and the expectation of Chinese
buying on
any dip to Dollars 2,220 a tonne, about Dollars 7 below the dollar
equivale
nt of yesterday's close. But the market remained trapped in a narrow
range,
they added, with overhead resistance expected at Dollars 2,231 a
tonne.
Afte
r most of an early fall had been recovered in mid-week the aluminium
market
ended on the downbeat, with the cash position closing yesterday at
Dollars 1
,204.50 a tonne, down Dollars 4 on the day and Dollars 7.75 on the
week.
The
market had been steady in the morning, underpinned by talk of further
produ
ction cuts following Alumax's announcement on Thursday that it was
reducing
output by about 36,000 tonnes a year at its Mount Holly smelter.
Fears that
the Bonneville Power Administration restrictions could increase
energy costs
for some US smelters were also providing support. But prices
again ran into
overhead resistance and fell away during the afternoon.
Among the precious
metals platinum and palladium prices reversed last week's
gains as confidenc
e was rocked by nervousness about US economic policy and a
report that Japan
ese car makers were to cut imports of the metals, both of
which are used in
exhaust catalysts.
Dollar weakness helped gold to mount another assault on t
he upper end of its
recent Dollars 327-Dollars 332 a troy ounce trading rang
e on Tuesday. Once
again it was repelled, as was a fresh attempt yesterday.
-----------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
(As at
Thursday's close)
-----------------------------------
tonnes
------------
-----------------------
Aluminium +2,100 to 1,650,550
Copper unchgd at
319,425
Lead -650 to 234,425
Nickel +1,176 to 82,164
Zinc
+7,600 to 546,600
Tin +15 to 17,135
-----------------
------------------
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC.
P1021 Copper Or
es.
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
P1099 Metal Ores, NEC.
P33 Primary
Metal Industries.
P5051 Metals Service Centers and Offices.
T
ypes:-
MKTS Market data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 144 ==============================================
Transaction #: 144 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:09:10
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-8150
_AN-DBUAKACNFT
9302
20
FT 20 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture (Week in t
he markets): Sugar breaks into higher ground:
By RIC
HARD MOONEY
A SERIES of bullish developments this week enab
led the world sugar market to
break free of the strait-jacket that had been
confining prices for some
time.
Having traded mostly between 8 cents and 8.5
cents a lb since last autumn
the prompt March futures position at New York'
s Cocoa, Sugar and Coffee
Exchange leapt in mid-week to 9 cents, a level las
t seen on November 2, and
moved on to a five-month high of 9.53 cents before
edging back yesterday
afternoon.
Market sentiment has hardened in recent we
eks as analysts' assessments of
the likely sugar supply surplus in the 1992-
93 season have been reduced.
London trader ED & F. Man now expects supply to
exceed demand by some 1.5m
tonnes (about 1.3 per cent of annual production)
, compared with the 3.4m
tonnes it was forecasting earlier. And this week C.
Czarnikow, another
London trade house, which in November was forecasting an
830,000-tonnes
surplus, this week adjusted this to a 370,000-tonne deficit
(after allowing
for 'unrecorded disappearance' of 600,000 tonnes ).
However,
the factor that changed firmness into strength this week was talk
circulati
ng among traders that Cuba had been forced to buy 100,000 tonnes of
sugar fr
om Thailand to enable it to honour supply commitments to China and
other Asi
an countries. Cuban sugar minister Mr Juan Herrera warned earlier
this month
that lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the start-up of a
significa
nt number of mills'.
Also supporting the market were: a surprise announcemen
t of a 160,000-tonne
Kenyan buying tender for next Monday; a 14,000-tonne Mo
roccan buying tender;
talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonnes
sale to Indonesia; and
a cut in Thailand's harvest forecast from 49.15m tonn
es of cane to 43m
tonnes.
'There have been several important changes in the
statistical outlook for
the 1992-93 crop cycle with adjustments to the suppl
y side of the balance
predominating,' said Czarnikow in the February 17 issu
e of its Sugar Review.
'Production for the season has fallen by some 1.32m t
onnes since our world
forecasts in November and is now expected to slip belo
w last season's output
by some 1.87m tonnes.'
The trade house now estimates
world sugar production at 114.57m tonnes,
compared with 115.89m in November,
and consumption at 114.51m tonnes,
compared with 114.46m tonnes.
Cocoa pric
es put in another steady performance as producers and consumers
prepared for
next week's International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) negotiations
in Geneva. In
late trading yesterday the New York market's May position was
quoted at Dol
lars 932 a tonne, up Dollars 7 on the week. In London, however,
that firmnes
s was obscured by the dollar's decline against sterling and the
London Futur
es and Options Exchange's May cocoa contract ended Pounds 3 down
on the week
at Pounds 734 a tonne.
The Geneva meeting will mark the fourth and final at
tempt to agree a
price-stabilisation pact to replace the moribund one that e
xpires on
September 30. Delegates were moving towards agreement at the last
session,
in November, that efforts to steady the market should be based on t
he
withholding of between 330,000 and 380,000 tonnes of surplus beans from t
he
market. But they remained far apart on how that was to be financed and on
what price range was to be defended.
The existing ICCA, agreed in 1986, cea
sed to operate as a market support
pact early in 1988, when its buffer stock
reached the 250,000-tonnes
ceiling.
All but one of the London Metal Exchang
e's contracts finished down on the
week, the biggest fall being in copper, w
hich closed yesterday at Pounds
1,551.25 a tonne for three months delivery,
down Pounds 30.50 on the week.
But, as with cocoa's fall, the culprit was th
e sterling rally, but for which
the price would have been modestly higher.
D
ealers said the copper market was supported by concern over production
stopp
ages in Mexico and Papua New Guinea and the expectation of Chinese
buying on
any dip to Dollars 2,220 a tonne, about Dollars 7 below the dollar
equivale
nt of yesterday's close. But the market remained trapped in a narrow
range,
they added, with overhead resistance expected at Dollars 2,231 a
tonne.
Afte
r most of an early fall had been recovered in mid-week the aluminium
market
ended on the downbeat, with the cash position closing yesterday at
Dollars 1
,204.50 a tonne, down Dollars 4 on the day and Dollars 7.75 on the
week.
The
market had been steady in the morning, underpinned by talk of further
produ
ction cuts following Alumax's announcement on Thursday that it was
reducing
output by about 36,000 tonnes a year at its Mount Holly smelter.
Fears that
the Bonneville Power Administration restrictions could increase
energy costs
for some US smelters were also providing support. But prices
again ran into
overhead resistance and fell away during the afternoon.
Among the precious
metals platinum and palladium prices reversed last week's
gains as confidenc
e was rocked by nervousness about US economic policy and a
report that Japan
ese car makers were to cut imports of the metals, both of
which are used in
exhaust catalysts.
Dollar weakness helped gold to mount another assault on t
he upper end of its
recent Dollars 327-Dollars 332 a troy ounce trading rang
e on Tuesday. Once
again it was repelled, as was a fresh attempt yesterday.
-----------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
(As at
Thursday's close)
-----------------------------------
tonnes
------------
-----------------------
Aluminium +2,100 to 1,650,550
Copper unchgd at
319,425
Lead -650 to 234,425
Nickel +1,176 to 82,164
Zinc
+7,600 to 546,600
Tin +15 to 17,135
-----------------
------------------
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC.
P1021 Copper Or
es.
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
P1099 Metal Ores, NEC.
P33 Primary
Metal Industries.
P5051 Metals Service Centers and Offices.
T
ypes:-
MKTS Market data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 145 ==============================================
Transaction #: 145 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:09:17
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-885
_AN-DC1AGAB9FT
93032
7
FT 27 MAR 93 / Commodities (Week in the Markets): Russ
ian crisis boosts platinum
By RICHARD MOONEY
PLATINUM PRICES were given two shots in the arm this week, first b
y concern
about supplies from crisis-ridden Russia, and then by news that th
e biggest
producer was cutting output.
Boris Yeltsin's troubles had already
pushed the price up by nearly Dollars 4
a troy ounce when Rustenburg Platinu
m of South Africa announced on Tuesday
that it had decided to close the Bosc
hfontein trackless mining shaft because
the low level of platinum and rhodiu
m prices had made its operation
uneconomic. News of the cut, which analysts
estimated would reduce
production by between 140,000 and 200,000 ounces, 3.6
to 5.1 per cent of
western world supply, helped the platinum price up to Do
llars 357.30 an
ounce before it slipped back yesterday to Dollars 355.60 yes
terday, up
Dollars 5.35 on the week.
With Impala Platinum, South Africa's se
cond biggest producer, saying it was
not planning, at this stage, to follow
Rustenburg's lead a London dealer
commented that the news was 'good for Doll
ars 2 or Dollars 4'. He added,
however, that there was 'some pretty stiff re
sistance at Dollars 358'.
At the London Metal Exchange nickel prices were al
so influenced by the
Russian crisis and the resulting uptrend was hardly den
ted by yesterday's
news that Falconbridge of Canada had decided to cut produ
ction this year by
much less than had previously been planned. The cash quot
ation closed at
Dollars 6,095 a tonne, up Dollars 40 on the day and Dollars
147.50 on the
week.
Falconbridge said it would shut its nickel mining and sm
elter operations at
Sudbury, Ontario, for only two weeks instead of the ten.
'The company has
reassessed its strategy of assisting to rebalance the mark
ets through an
extended shutdown. It is now apparent that this goal cannot b
e achieved,' it
explained.
The company now plans to make the most of its adv
antage as a low-cost
producer to compete for business in the heavily oversup
plied nickel market.
Stocks in LME registered warehouses, which have been sw
ollen by metal
flooding out of the former Soviet Union, rose another 798 ton
nes this week
to a record 86,538 tonnes.
The rest of the LME metals ended lo
wer on the week, the biggest fall being
in three months delivery copper, whi
ch closed last night at Pounds 1,465 a
tonne, down Pounds 30.50 on the day a
nd Pounds 18.50 on the week. The firmer
early tone had been bolstered by the
Russian factor, but gains were lost as
concern about Chilean labour problem
s faded. A dispute over production
bonuses at Chile Copper Corporation's Chu
quicamata, the world's largest
copper mine, ended yesterday when the company
agreed to payment reviews,
union leaders said.
Surging shipments from the f
ormer eastern bloc countries have also been
weighing down lead prices at the
LME, where the cash quotation fell in
mid-week to Pounds 266 a tonne, the l
owest level for six and a half years.
The price recovered somewhat, closing
yesterday at Pounds 2169.75 a tonne,
but that was still Pounds 2.25 down on
the week.
At prices like that, suggested Mr Stephen Briggs of Minerals & Met
als
Research Services, not one lead producer in the world was making a profi
t.
He expected substantial production cuts to be made before long, but warne
d:
'There will be no substantial price rise until we see a solid, sustained
increase in demand'.
The London robusta coffee market put in a firmer perfor
mance, though it
failed in successive attempts to break back above Dollars 9
00 a tonne for
May futures, the support level that was breached last week. Y
esterday the
price eased Dollars 8 to Dollars 890 a tonne, up Dollars 10 on
the week.
Coffee investors were given little encouragement by the proceeding
s at the
International Coffee Organisation council meeting in London, where
little
progress appeared to be being made towards agreeing a price-supportin
g
International Coffee Agreement based on a revived export quota system.
The
sugar market spent the first half of the week carrying out the price
'corre
ction' that many traders thought was overdue following the recent
sustained
rise. The July futures position in New York, which ended last week
at a thre
e-year peak of 12.54 cents a lb, slipped to 11.75 cents at one
point before
recovering to 12.13 cents in late trading yesterday. Traders
said the market
was still supported by supply tightness and bullish chart
patterns.
Yesterd
ay traders in New York were encouraged by a newspaper report that
Cuban suga
r mills had been operating at less than half their capacity in the
middle of
this month. Attention has been focussed on Cuba by hopeful sugar
bulls sinc
e it was hit two weeks ago by the storms that swept the eastern
seaboard of
the US. The earlier stages in this year's price rise were
chiefly influenced
by drought-induced cuts in Thai crop forecasts - down
from the initial 5m t
onnes to 3.51m, which would be the lowest level for
five years.
The cocoa ma
rket had a see-sawing week that ended with the May position
exactly in the m
iddle of its Pounds 24 trading range at Pounds 687 a tonne,
down Pounds 10 o
n balance. It started with a sharpish retreat in response to
the failure of
last week's attempt to negotiate an International Cocoa
Agreement with econo
mic clauses. That fall was recovered in mid-week before
the downtrend was re
newed yesterday. A forecast by London trader Gill &
Duffus of a 118,000-tonn
es production deficit in the 1992-93 season did
little to support the market
.
----------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
(As at Thursday's
close)
tonnes
----------------------------------
Aluminium +8,975 to 1,72
5,300
Copper +3,425 to 354,700
Lead +2,150 to 245,425
Nickel
+528 to 86,538
Zinc +300 to 595,825
Tin -95 to
18,955
----------------------------------
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts
, NEC.
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
P3339 Primary Nonferrous Metals, NEC.
Types:-
STATS Statistics.
COSTS Commodity prices.
MKTS Market data.
The Financial Times
London
Page 10
============= Transaction # 146 ==============================================
Transaction #: 146 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:09:35
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-17084
_AN-DACAXAB9FT
930
102
FT 02 JAN 93 / Commodities (Year in the Markets): Pr
ices end back at square one after another turbulent year
By DAVID BLACKWELL and RICHARD MOONEY
RECESSION and co
ntinued turbulence in the former Soviet Union have left
commodity prices lit
tle changed at the end of the year from those seen last
January. But that ba
ld statement belies the level of activity in the
markets.
On the London Meta
l Exchange the flood of imports from the former Soviet
Union pushed nickel p
rices sharply down and kept a firm lid on the aluminium
market, where wareho
use stocks now stand above 1.5m tonnes. The zinc market
suffered a classic s
queeze. Copper, still traded in sterling, appears to
have risen sharply unti
l the figures are converted to dollars - around
Dollars 1 a lb looks set to
be the going rate this January as last.
Gold has fallen further, hit by an a
lmost total lack of interest from
investors. Both platinum and silver have c
ontinued to settle into their
relatively new roles as industrial metals.
Coc
oa and coffee prices have touched their lowest levels for 20 years or
more b
efore recovering. The lack of activity in the sugar market has left
London w
ith virtually no futures trading.
Gold fell to a six-year low in late March
as it crashed through what many
traders had seen as the last line of defence
- Dollars 342 a troy ounce.
Persistent selling, some of it thought to be on
behalf of an eastern
European central bank, coincided with Ramadan, the Isl
amic fast, which kept
most Middle Eastern operators away from the market.
By
Easter gold was at a fresh low of Dollars 336.80 a troy ounce, with
dealers
predicting that the price was bottoming out. They were proved right
for a t
ime as the market started to climb, brushing aside an announcement by
the Be
lgian central bank that it had sold 202 tonnes from its reserves.
Platinum w
as also rising as South African unrest made users reluctant to go
short in c
ase of a miners' strike. In July the platinum price hit the year's
high of j
ust over Dollars 390 a troy ounce. But some analysts pointed out
that the ma
rket was ignoring weak demand from Japan and continuing recession
in the US.
Gold reached its peak for the year of just under Dollars 360 a troyounce a
few days after platinum - and then both markets slid steeply, leaving one
an
alyst just two weeks later describing Dollars 355 for gold as 'like the
Matt
erhorn'. On one mid-August day gold fell by more than Dollars 8 and
platinum
by Dollars 16 a troy ounce.
The withdrawal of US investment funds sparked t
he gold fall, which was
exacerbated by more news of central bank selling - t
his time from Uruguay,
which unloaded 50,000 troy ounces in July in order to
buy fixed term
deposits denominated in US dollars and D-marks. Platinum sli
d along with the
Japanese equity market.
The European currency market jitter
s of September gave some support to gold,
but South African and Australian p
roducers were able to lock in profits in
their own currencies through forwar
d selling. Gold has not had a good year;
Middle East sales in November finis
hed the battering from central bank sales
and the total lack of investor int
erest and took the market to a 7-year low
of Dollars 329.30. It has not made
much headway since, closing at Dollars
333.05 a troy ounce on Thursday, dow
n about Dollars 20 on the year.
Platinum ended the year at Dollars 355.25 a
troy ounce, some Dollars 20
above its price at the beginning of the year. Op
timism about a recovery in
Japanese demand and positive charts point to furt
her gains, analysts
believe.
Silver hit an 18-month low of 364.75 cents at t
he end of August and closed
at 367.5 on Thursday, 20 cents down on the year.
The biggest excitement of
the year was the Saudi sale via the National Comm
ercial Bank of Jeddah of
Dollars 160m-worth of silver - equivalent to more t
han 10 per cent of world
demand - in just two hours early in July, knocking
more than 20 cents off
the price.
Like most of the base metals copper began
the year in a fairly hopeful mood.
Chilean strike fears and technical factor
s had helped to lift prices to 2
1/2 -month highs by mid-February, before so
me of the gains were relinquished
in response to reports that Russia, hungry
for hard curency, was planning to
cut export duties on the metal. In the sp
ring talk of Chinese buying was
partly counteracted by concern about the eff
ects of a possible strike in
Germany, one of the biggest importers of copper
, but as London Metal
Exchange warehouse stocks began to be reduced and US r
ecovery hopes started
to grow prices climbed to 12-month highs by mid-June.
Bullish sentiment continued - fuelled by concern about supply tightness,
Pol
ish labour tension, bad weather in Chilean producing areas and expected
dema
nd growth - and a month later copper prices stood at the highest level
for 1
8 months.
From that point the picture becomes blurred by sterling's extreme
weakness
against the US dollar, in which base metals are traded worldwide. T
he effect
of the pound's decline, most of which was concentrated in the dram
atic
mid-September devaluation, on copper prices is illustrated by the fact
that
the two-year sterling high reached in early November equated to a nine-
month
dollar low. And that factor has continued to dominate the market.
The
three months copper price closed on Thursday at Pounds 1,538 a tonne,
Pounds
350 up on the year. But once the currency disportion is stripped out
the 12
-month advance comes down to a much less impressive Pounds 78 a tonne.
For l
ead, the LME's other sterling-denominated contract, the devaluation
effect i
s even more pronounced, turning what would have been a Pounds 60
fall into a
n apparent Pounds 8 rise on the year, at Pounds 308.75 a tonne
for three mon
ths metal.
After a flat start to the year, depressed by sluggish car battery
sales, the
LME lead market found support in production problems, notably in
Italy and
Yugolslavia, followed by signs of a technical squeeze on nearby s
upplies and
reports of Chinese buying. Between them, and helped by the pound
's weakness,
these factors lifted the lead market to a 12-month peak in July
. And that
was exceeded in the September as a direct result of sterling's pl
unge. By
the end of November, however, the market's fundamental weakness had
been
reasserted and prices were back to five-month lows.
Another LME market
to feel the effects of a squeeze this year was zinc.
Signs of the coming te
chnical suppy tightness were apparent from the start
of the year, though the
y tended to be obscured by the effects of production
problems in Italy, Peru
, Canada, Mexico and the US, among others. Hopes of a
US retail upturn were
also cited as zinc prices reached 15-month highs in
March.
But from then on
the squeeze was the undoubted dominant factor. The normal
'contango' situati
on, with the cash price at a discount to forward
positions, was reversed in
late March and the 'backwardation', as a cash
premium is known, widened inex
orably until it reached an extraordinary
Dollars 189 a tonne in the middle o
f June.
In normal circumstances a backwardation would suggest a shortage of
metal
available for delivery, but that hardly fitted in with this year's sus
tained
rise in LME warehouse stocks of zinc, which, by the time the cash pre
mium
appeared, had grown from 152,000 tonnes at the start of the year to 221
,000
tonnes. It was clear, therefore, that some sort of distortion (not to s
ay
manipulation) was afoot. The exchange responded by imposing a descending
ceiling on the one-day backwardation - ie on the cost of carrying forward a
short position for one day. The backwardation had disappeared by the end of
July, though it made frequent reappearances before the squeeze, suspected t
o
be the work of a group of producers, could confidently be said to be over
in
early October.
With fundamental considerations taking over direction of t
he market and the
rise in LME stocks continuing the ensuing price slide saw
the three months
price retreat some Dollars 300 from its summer level to end
the year at
Dollars 1,079.50 a tonne, down Dollars 35.50 on balance.
The al
uminium market had been weighed down in 1991 by the unprecedented
growth of
the stockpile in LME warehouses, which began 1992 by passing the
unwelcome m
ilestone of 1m tonnes. There were hopes that the flood of metal
from the for
mer Soviet Union that had been largely responsible for swelling
LME stocks w
ould soon abate, especially in view of the inefficiency of
smelters in the n
ewly independent republics and their much-vaunted espousal
of market economi
cs. But the republics' hunger for hard currency proved
greater than their co
mmitment to industrial efficiency and with CIS exports
remaining very high t
he LME stockpile grew by another 500,000 tonnes.
Perhaps surprisingly, the m
arket took this pretty much in its stride and the
three months LME price end
ed the year Dollars 110 to the good at Dollars
1,260.50 a tonne.
Gains early
in the year were mostly lost in the summer as hopes of economic
recovery fa
ded and the gloomy truth about CIS export prospects became
apparent. But in
the latter part of the year the market was encouraged by
the announcement of
production cuts.
The biggest loser on the LME last year was nickel. The moo
d was bright
enough early on as traders looked forward to big production cut
s in response
to the low price level and, as with aluminium, a slackening of
CIS exports.
The former came too late, however, and the latter came not at
all, and the
six-month highs seen in February proved to be the year's peak.
By the time Inco of Canada instituted a round of output cuts in October
nick
el prices had fallen to two-year lows and LME stocks of the metal had
risen
by 300 per cent on the year so far to nearly 50,000 tonnes. In those
circums
tances the market was looking for an upturn in demand, especially in
the sta
inless steel sector, to give it the necessary shot in the arm, not
simply a
reduction in output. Further production cuts were subsequently
announced by
Falconbridge of Canada, Cuba's state-run producer and Western
Mining of Aust
ralia - amounting in all to nearly 38,00 tonnes in a full year
-but the pri
ce slide continued and LME three months nickel closed on
Thursday at Dollars
6,023 a tonne, down Dollars 1,192 on the year.
By comparison, the tin marke
t had a good year. LME stocks rose by only 7.4
per cent to 14,710 tonnes and
the three months price ended 1992 up Dollars
240 at Dollars 5,845 a tonne.
A life-of-contract low of Dollars 5,485 had been registered at the beginning
of the year but by mid-February the market was at a six-month high,
reflect
ing concern about shipment delays from Brazil and Malaysia, the two
biggest
suppliers. The bullish mood continued throughout the first half,
lifting the
price to a 25-month high of Dollars 6,950 a tonne, before a
reaction was ca
used by Brazilian and Chinese selling and bearish technical
factors. But the
market was moving higher again before the new year,
encouraged by buying in
Kuala Lumpur and activity in the options market.
For the oil market in gene
ral 1992 proved a disappointing year and for
members of the Organisation of
Petroleum Exporting Countries a worrying one.
Having started at the low leve
l of about Dollars 17 a barrel the Brent crude
price was buoyed in the sprin
g by optimism about the prospects for demand
when the expected industrial re
covery began. And the price moved above
Dollars 20 a barrel for the first ti
me in six months when Opec ministers
agreed unexpectedly in May to roll over
its second quarter production
ceiling of 22.98m b/d into the third quarter,
rather than anticipate the
rise in demand.
But by November, in the absence
of the expected demand boost, the market was
looking for Opec ministers to a
gree substantial production cuts at their
meeting in Vienna. When this did n
ot happen prices fell sharply and it took
the political turmoil in Russia, t
he world's biggest producer, to lift Brent
crude back above Dollars 18 a bar
rel last month.
Of the softs, cocoa began the year in the most optimistic mo
od as the market
looked forward eagerly to the first annual supply deficit f
or eight years.
But, with collapsing demand from the former Soviet Union, ho
pes of higher
prices proved to be a pipe dream, with the market failing to r
egain the 1991
peak of Pounds 829 a tonne.
The second postion contract on Lo
ndon Fox opened the year at Pounds 745 a
tonne. The market continued an almo
st unbroken decline for the next six
months. The nadir came at the end of Ju
ne, when the second position contract
fell to Pounds 509 a tonne, the lowest
level for more than 16 years. At
these levels countries of origin, includin
g the Ivory Coast, were reluctant
to sell, and were also pinning some hope o
n the outcome of Geneva talks on a
new international agreement.
The market b
egan a slow climb back to more than Pounds 750 a tonne in early
November, gi
ven a boost by sterling's devaluation and an Ivory Coast
decision to ban the
sale of small beans. But London prices have ended close
to Pounds 700 a ton
ne, and it is worth noting that the nearby New York
contract which began the
year at Dollars 1,245 a tonne, closed it at Dollars
936.
The Economist Inte
lligence Unit is predicting a small deficit of 43,000
tonnes for 1992-93, wh
ile the US Agriculture Department estimates production
and supply in balance
at 2.35m tonnes. The EIU expects the next round of
talks on a cocoa pact in
February to end with a purely administrative pact,
and is predicting prices
to average about the same as in 1991 at 55 cents a
lb.
Coffee prices, like
cocoa, went into a steep slide from the beginning of the
year. The London ro
busta market fell by more than Dollars 300 to hit 22-year
lows at the beginn
ing of May. The high level of consumer stocks - 19m bags
(60 kg each) - left
producers with little option but to sell for what they
could get.
Throughou
t the summer the market edged higher, keeping an eye on the
International Co
ffee Organisation's interminable negotiations on a new
international agreeme
nt. The different supply and demand picture for
robustas and arabicas kept L
ondon steady while New York arabicas went below
50 cents a lb in September.
But by the end of October both markets were rallying strongly as traders
enj
oyed a total change in sentiment, mainly on perceptions of a smaller
1992-93
crop in Brazil, the biggest producer, and Colombia. In December,
London's s
econd position robusta contract broke through the Dollars 1,000 a
tonne leve
l for the first time since January 8.
The EIU believes the recent rise has b
een overdone. Consumer stocks are
still high and this month's ICO talks are
likely to be inconclusive, pushing
a new coffee agreement back to 1994.
The
centre of gravity for world sugar prices has moved decisively from
London to
New York, where speculative money provides liquidity. The second
position N
ew York raw sugar futures contract has ranged between 8 and 10
cents a lb th
roughout the year - another market with more than enough
production to satis
fy demand. For much of the last few months the market has
been stuck between
8.5 and 9 cents - a narrow range with depressingly low
traded volumes, acco
rding to ED & F. Man's latest sugar report. But this
contrasted with increas
ed volumes of freely traded sugar following the
dissolution of the Cuban tra
ding arrangements with Comecon, Man pointed out.
A November report from the
UN Food and Agricultural Organisation predicted
trade expansion for sugar, b
ut believed that by the turn of the century
prices would still be about 10 c
ents a lb in 1990 terms.
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC.
P3339 P
rimary Nonferrous Metals, NEC.
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
P2062 Cane S
ugar Refining.
P1311 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas.
Types:
-
MKTS Market Data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
The F
inancial Times
London Page 10
============= Transaction # 147 ==============================================
Transaction #: 147 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:10:00
Selec. Rec. #: 9
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-2324
_AN-DCUAGACMFT
9303
20
FT 20 MAR 93 / Commodities and Agriculture (Week in t
he Markets): Cocoa support scheme abandoned
By RICHA
RD MOONEY
INTERNATIONAL COCOA Organisation delegates decide
d yesterday to abandon
efforts to negotiate a market stabilisation pact base
d on a stock
withholding scheme.
With time quickly running out for reaching
an agreement that could be
ratified in time to replace the present moribund
pact when it expires at the
end of September, and with wide gaps remaining b
etween producers and
consumers on several crucial issues, the delegates deci
ded to consider the
softer option of an agreement based on voluntary product
ion control,
promotion of consumption and running down the organisation's 23
3,000-tonne
buffer stock.
A special session of the ICCO council will be held
on June 8-11 to discuss
this plan, which an official described yesterday as
more than an
administrative pact but well short of a full economic accord.
The announcement, which came too late to produce any response at the London
cocoa futures market, is unlikely to have come as much of a surprise to
trad
ers, most of whom had long ago given up hope of an effective market
support
pact being agreed. Late trading in New York showed little sign of a
reaction
, though prices were tending lower.
Sugar continued to be the brightest star
in the commodities firmament this
week as New York futures prices surged to
three-year peaks and their London
counterparts to the highest levels since
April 1991. The August contract in
London closed yesterday at Dollars 265.20
a tonne, up Dollars 25.20 on the
week, while New York's July contract moved
above the 12 cents-a-lb mark. In
late trading it was quoted at 12.50 cents
a lb, up 1.72 cents from the end
of last week and three cents from a month a
go.
Having been wakened from its torpor a few weeks ago by drought-induced c
uts
in the Thai crop projection - down from the initial 5m tonnes to 3.51m,
which would be the lowest level for five years - the sugar market was given
a further boost by news that Cuba had been hit by the storms that swept the
eastern seaboard of the US last weekend.
London analysts were dubious from t
he first about the extent of the damage
to Cuba's sugar crop, which was alre
ady expected to be well down from last
year's 7m tonnes, possibly as low as
5m tonnes. And in its daily Commodity
Report yesterday GNI, the London trade
house, noted that a Cuban request for
United Nations aid revealed that 'onl
y Dollars 46m of damage was done to the
sugar crop - or 190,000 tonnes'. Tha
t figure was well below some of the
earlier estimates, GNI said, 'and adds w
eight to our negative view point'.
Traders were in no mood to be dissuaded f
rom their new-found bullishness,
however. 'The market is still tight,' one L
ondon analysts told the Reuter
news agency yesterday. 'It's on an uptrend an
d it has recovered a long way.'
But he was not sure that it could sustain pr
esent price levels, which
offered attractive profit-taking opportunities for
speculators and might
tempt producers to sell from their stocks. 'There is
a lot of material to be
sold short term and if selling begins, we could see
the top of the market,'
he suggested.
In contrast, the coffee market extende
d last week's heavy fall. The London
Futures and Options Exchange's May robu
stas price closed yesterday at
Dollars 879 a tonne, up Dollars 6 on the day
but Dollars 34 down on the
week. In the absence of fundamental developments
traders attributed the
market's continued weakness to the high level of cons
umer stocks and
pessimism about the prospects for progress towards the reviv
al of the
International Coffee Organisation's export quota system being made
at next
week's London meeting.
GNI suggested yesterday that lack of enthusi
asm from the US, the biggest
coffee consumer, could scupper the negotiations
. 'It is likely that the US
delegation has not received a fresh mandate from
(President) Clinton,' it
said in its Commodity Report, 'in which case the m
eetings will merely be to
set another date for talks, but if (delegates) hav
e had word that the US
position has not changed under Clinton, then everyone
might as well pack up
and go home early.'
At the London Metal Exchange tin
proved the brightest spark as commission
house buying fuelled a late rally i
n prices. Dealers said labour unrest in
the Bolivian mining industry also pr
ovided support as an accelerating
Dollars 230 surge over three days wiped ou
t an earlier Dollars 142.50 fall
and left the cash position at Dollars 5,755
a tonne.
The cash copper price ended Pounds 61.50 down on the week at Pound
s 1,459.50
a tonne, but most of that resulted from sterling's strength again
st the
dollar, in terms of which the pice was only down about Dollars 12. De
spite
high stocks, poor demand growth outside North America and Japanese sel
ling
early in the week, copper made several attempts to break long-standing
resistance at just above Dollars 2,200 for three months metal. Dealers said
buyers were encouraged by concern over the situation in Zaire, labour unrest
in Chile and falls in stocks at the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex),
su
ggesting that output losses caused by widespread flooding in Arizona this
ye
ar had been heavier than thought earlier.
The gold price moved steadily high
er this week, ending yesterday at Dollars
331.45 a troy ounce, up Dollars 3.
70 on balance. But dealers expected any
closer approach to the ceiling of th
e recent Dollars 326/333 price range to
attract producer selling, especially
as in South African rand terms the
price near a record.
------------------
--------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
(As at Thursday's clos
e)
tonnes
--------------------------------------------------
Aluminium +
3,425 to 1,715,075
Copper +1,250 to 347,350
Lead
+7,275 to 242,425
Nickel -12 to 85,740
Zinc
+6,050 to 593,450
Tin -125 to 19,045
-------
-------------------------------------------
Countries:-
<
CN>USZ United States of America.
GBZ United Kingdom, EC.
In
dustries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC.
P0133 Sugarcane an
d Sugar Beets.
P6231 Security and Commodity Exchanges.
P333 Primary
Nonferrous Metals.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
COSTS Commodity prices.
MKTS Market data.
The Financial
Times
London Page 9
============= Transaction # 148 ==============================================
Transaction #: 148 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:10:17
Selec. Rec. #: 10
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-1721
_AN-BECBBACTFT
9105
03
FT 03 MAY 91 / Commodities and Agriculture: Sugar sur
plus estimate soars
By DAVID BLACKWELL
THE WORLD sugar supply and demand balance is heading for a surplus of 4.
6m
tonnes for 1990-91 - the biggest surplus since 1982-83, according to ED &
F.
Man, the London trade house.
Man's sharp upward revision of the surplus
from an estimate of 1.9m tonnes
comes in a week when sugar prices hit their
lowest levels for more than
three years. On Tuesday the London Daily Price f
or raws was Dollars 194 a
tonne, the lowest level since November 1987.
The l
atest estimate compares with a 3.33m tonne surplus predicted by FO
Licht, th
e German statistician, in February, and a surplus of 1.2m tonnes
made in the
same month by Czarnikow, another large London trade house, which
is expecte
d to revise its estimate upwards later this month.
Man's latest monthly suga
r review predicts that prices will be further
depressed by the 'weight of th
e existing, as well as the impending supply
surpluses'. When added to a revi
sed surplus of 1.7m tonnes for 1989-90, the
total accumulation of sugar from
the two seasons is 6.3m tonnes.
Production this season is now put at 113.8m
tonnes, compared with a previous
estimate of 110.4m tonnes and 1989-90 prod
uction of 108.7m tonnes. 'This is
the largest annual increase since 1981-82;
with beet production increasing
by over 5 per cent and cane by 4.4 per cent
and it is a testimony to the
response of sugar producers to the higher worl
d prices in 1989 and 1990,'
says the review.
Adjustments to production estim
ates for China, India and Thailand account
for 2.1m tonnes or more than 60 p
er cent of the total increase.
The consumption forecast is little changed at
109.2m tonnes.
About two thirds of this season's forecast surplus is held i
n stock by
traditional importing countries such as the US, India and Mexico,
says Man.
Usually these countries only re-export at times of high world pri
ces, but
this season, 'influenced more by logistical and domestic financial
considerations', both India and Mexico have sold sugar.
Recent talk of Mexic
an sales to China has been one of the factors depressing
prices. Man believe
s that any purchases would be surplus to China's domestic
needs, and that it
is rebuilding depleted stocks.
The Financial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 149 ==============================================
Transaction #: 149 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:10:36
Selec. Rec. #: 11
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT932-7733
_AN-DEUB0AHDFT
9305
21
FT 21 MAY 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Bigger su
gar deficit forecast
By DAVID BLACKWELL
WORLD SUGAR production will fall 2.84m tonnes below consumption in 1992
-93,
according to Czarnikow, the London trade house.
The group's latest suga
r review puts production at 111.6m tonnes, down 3m
tonnes from the last esti
mate in February, and substantially below last
year's 116.42m tonnes.
Consum
ption is now estimated at 113.9m tonnes, and 600,000 tonnes has been
allowed
for what Czarnikow terms 'unrecorded disappearance'. The deficit is
well ah
ead of the International Sugar Organisation's figure of 1.61m tonnes,
announ
ced earlier this week.
Mr Chris Pack, analyst at Czarnikow, said yesterday t
hat the latest figures
showed a swing from last season's surplus to this sea
son's deficit of 7m
tonnes.
'It is not surprising that the market has moved
sharply ahead,' he said. 'It
is trying to find a new level.'
For most of the
six months between last September and February, the New York
nearby raw sug
ar contracts were trading between 8 and 9 cents a lb. But as
perceptions inc
reased of much lower crops than expected in Cuba, Thailand
and India, the ma
rket has risen sharply. On Monday the New York July
contract reached a high
of 13.26 cents a lb before profit taking set in.
Yesterday in late trading i
t was at 11.98 cents a lb.
Czarnikow estimates Cuban production at 5.5m tonn
es, on the high side
compared with other forecasters but still well down on
last year's 7m
tonnes. Indian production is put at 11.5m tonnes, down 3m ton
nes from last
year, while Thailand is expected to produce 3.8m tonnes, down
from 1991-92's
5.1m tonnes.
Mr Pack said that now a clearer picture of produ
ction was emerging, the
market was looking for signs of demand, which has be
en restricted by the
higher price levels. 'This market is fundamentally driv
en,' he said, 'but
demand is a little cool for some of the rampant bulls to
follow.'
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industrie
s:-
P2061 Raw Cane Sugar.
Types:-
CMMT Comme
nt & Analysis.
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
<
PAGE> London Page 32
============= Transaction # 150 ==============================================
Transaction #: 150 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:10:49
Selec. Rec. #: 12
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8376
_AN-EHQE6AFHFT
9408
17
FT 17 AUG 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Ukraine t
o boost coal imports and exports - A look at a paradoxical legacy of the Sov
iet era
By JILL BARSHAY and MATTHEW KAMINSKI
Ukraine will, paradoxically, both import and export more coal this
year,
illustrating how Soviet regulatory hangovers create shortages at home
while
western trade brings much-needed hard currency profits.
The once migh
ty coal producer, saddled with exhausted pits and antiquated
technology, ann
ouced this week that falling production would force it to
import 15m tonnes
of coal to meet minimum domestic needs.
Ukraine remains keen, however, to ke
ep exports at 12m tonnes a year, up from
10m tonnes in 1989. Its main custom
ers are the UK, Belgium and Italy, who
pay between Dollars 21 and Dollars 10
0 a tonne, depending on quality.
Domestic prices are roughly half that - ran
ging from 500,000 to 1.7m
Ukrainian karbovanets (Dollars 11.6 to Dollars 39.
50) a tonne - because they
are set by regulations linking selling prices to
production cost. So the
state coal committee, which receives coal from the p
its and distributes it
to users, likes to skim off as much as possible for t
he more lucrative
export markets.
'We have an unlimited amount of coal for t
he next 100 years in the Donbass.
But we need modern equipment. This is why
we are exporting coal for hard
currency,' says Mr Sergei Fishenko, head of t
he government's coal
department.
A traditional coal exporter, Ukraine this y
ear will produce 100m tonnes,
down from 131.9m last year. To bridge the gap,
it plans to barter metals for
coal from Russia and Poland, former trading p
artners under the old Comecon
regime, enabling it to satisfy its western cus
tomers.
The Ukrainian government has been unwilling to liberalise energy pri
ces,
even though mounting shortages suggest no other practical option. This
deepens the energy crisis and delays restructuring of heavy industry away
fr
om energy-intensive activities.
The mining sector, once a Soviet showcase, m
irrors Ukraine's economic
plight. The heavily subsidised mines in the countr
y's eastern Donbass region
drain state coffers with minimal return: the 1.2m
coal miners at 262 mines -
5 per cent of the labour force - produce, on ave
rage, 5 per cent of the coal
a western coal miner does; and the Kiev governm
ent is this year paying about
Dollars 50m a month in subsidies.
The producti
vity gap can be blamed partly on antiquated equipment, which
itself carries
a high environmental cost. Ukraine's coal pits contribute 3
per cent (2.2bn
cubic meters) of the world's emission of methane, a
greenhouse gas associate
d with global warming. Accidents are another
problem. Some four miners die f
or every 1m of coal produced - the highest
rate in the world - MDNM/ in the
Donetsk district alone 213 people were
killed last year.
Many mines should b
e closed; but that would carry the politically
unpalatable social cost of mo
unting unemployment.
Despite a poor summer crop, Ukraine will not import gra
in this year, the
Food and Agriculture Department announced this week.
Last
year it produced 45m tonnes but analysts expect this year's crop to be
below
40m; and the announcement that it will not resort to imports comes as
a sur
prise.
A summer drought helped push yields down, but Mr Csaba Csaki, an
agro
economist at the World Bank in Washington, commented: 'The inherited
ineffic
iency of the collectives and input supplies and the trade break-down
are the
real problem - just don't blame the weather'.
Countries:-
UAZ Ukraine, East Europe.
Industries:-
P12 Coa
l Mining.
P01 Agricultural Production-Crops.
Types:-
MKTS Foreign trade.
COSTS Commodity prices.
MKTS Production.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financial Times
L
ondon Page 22
============= Transaction # 151 ==============================================
Transaction #: 151 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:10:58
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 209374 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 152 ==============================================
Transaction #: 152 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:05
Selec. Rec. #: 13
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-16293
_AN-DAGB2AEUFT
930
107
FT 07 JAN 93 / Commodities and Agriculture: Huge har
vest tests strength of Chicago bulls - The supply of cheap feed grains is al
so fuelling a boom in US livestock production
By LAU
RIE MORSE
CHICAGO grain futures are starting the year burde
ned by the huge harvest
that has just been completed and by the uncertain st
atus of a key export
market - the former Soviet Union. Still, poor harvests
in other areas of the
world and prospects for smaller US crops next autumn s
hould provide ample
speculative opportunities in the futures markets through
the year, analysts
say.
The supply of cheap feed grains is also fuelling a
boom in livestock
production, a factor that is likely to weigh down Chicago
cattle and hog
futures prices as the year wears on.
Mr Chuck Levitt, senior
livestock analyst for Shearson Lehman Brothers, says
the very sharp drop in
animal feed costs virtually ensures that total US
meat output in 1993 will b
e a record. He projects overall production of US
beef, pork, and poultry at
68bn lbs this year, 3 per cent above the 1992
record.
Despite the output boo
st, Mr Levitt says prices will be lower, 'but there
will be no train wreck'.
Larger meat exports, lower retail pork margins and
expanding meat processin
g capacity in the US will help to absorb the
surplus. He projects prices for
choice fed cattle on the southern plains at
about Dollars 70 a hundredweigh
t by the third quarter, about Dollars 4 below
last year's price. For hogs, h
e expects average prices to be Dollars 1 to
Dollars 3 below 1992 levels.
The
biggest event for US meat and grain markets in 1992 was the enormous US
mai
ze crop. The US Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its
final
maize production figure on January 12, but for now the harvest is
estimated
at a record 9.3m tonnes. Despite reported crop losses in northern
states, wh
ere foul weather delayed harvesting, prominent analysts say record
yields in
other states will cause the production figure to be revised
upward, to abou
t 9.4m tonnes in next Tuesday's report. If that happens,
traders expect the
price of maize for March delivery at the Chicago Board of
Trade to drop belo
w the current Dollars 2.14 1/2 a bushel contract low.
However, Mr Dale Gusta
fson, senior grains analyst for Smith, Barney, Harris
and Upham, believes th
e same report will show heavy US maize use. Despite
its abundance, the 1992
maize crop has been low in protein, encouraging
heavier consumption for live
stock feeding.
'My bias is that next week's report will suggest more domesti
c maize
consumption in the first quarter (of the crop year) than the trade
p
erceives,' he says. Prices are already near the low for the year, Mr
Gustafs
on points out, and he expects that domestic and export demand will
gradually
pull futures prices higher, though not much above the Dollars
2.30-a-bushel
level.
Analysts are not counting on Russia as an export market for US feedg
rains in
the first quarter, given its credit problems. Still, other importer
s are
expected to fill the gap; South Africa, for example, is expected to be
a net
maize importer this year because of its own poor crop.
With the US go
vernment requiring farmers to set aside 10 per cent of their
maize acreage n
ext year in order to receive price supports, the 1993 harvest
is expected to
be considerably smaller. Mr Dick Loewy, an analyst with
AgResource, project
s the yet-to-be planted 1993 maize crop at 8.3m bushels,
about 1m lower than
1992's. Prospects for a smaller new crop could drive
maize for December del
ivery up to Dollars 2.60 by the summer.
An unusual aspect of the US maize si
tuation is that most of the 1992 surplus
is being held by farmers, rather th
an the government. Low market prices have
discouraged commercial sales of th
e grain. In other years, farmers would
have surrendered the grain to the gov
ernment loan programme, but this year
the loan price is so low that they hav
e chosen to keep their maize - a
factor that could prompt a flood of grain o
n to the market as prices begin
their projected summer recovery, putting a l
id on the advance.
On the surface, the US wheat situation is more conducive
to a rally. The
USDA projects stocks of US wheat at a mere 498m bushels at t
he end of this
marketing year, compared with more than 2bn bushels of maize.
However,
market watchers are enthusiastically recommending selling Chicago
wheat
futures for March delivery every time the contract bumps above Dollars
3.60
a bushel.
'I expect the (USDA) will have to cut their estimates for do
mestic wheat
consumption and export demand. I think our carryout is moving c
loser to 600m
bushels than 500m,' says Mr Warren King, an analyst with Cargi
ll Investors
Services.
Although Canada had a poor wheat crop, and there has
been talk of troubles
with the Australian crop this week; China's purchases
of US wheat have been
disappointing; and Russia, on the of largest US wheat
importers, is being
counted out of the market at least until March, leaving
about 2.5 million
tonnes of projected demand in limbo. Russia is more than D
ollars 120m in
arrears on its US-backed loans, with refinancing dragging on
in
multinational negotiations.
Unlike maize, wheat prices will get little so
lace from new crop plantings.
Winter wheat sowed in southern plains states h
as received plentiful moisture
and promises a bumper crop. More acres have b
een planted to wheat for 1993
than last year, because the government elimina
ted all wheat acreage
set-aside requirements. Analysts are already projectin
g wheat futures for
July delivery to trade at Dollars 2.85 a bushel or less,
more than 30 cents
per bushel below the present price.
Analysts project som
e boom and bust pricing for soyabean futures and for
soya oil and soya meal.
Troubled Canadian, Chinese and European Community
oilseed crops have left t
he US as the only global oilseed and meal supplier
until southern hemisphere
crops are harvested this spring.
'The EC upped its import volume to make up
for its own poor harvest, plus
the dollar was very weak and the protein in
oilseeds was priced cheaper than
its grain equivalents. All that resulted in
frontloading (bringing forward)
EC imports from the US,' says AgResource's
Mr Loewy.
As a result, 67 per cent of projected US soyabean exports has been
sold only
4 months into the crop year. The export pace tailed off in Novemb
er, but Mr
Loewy and other analysts are projecting that US soyabean prices w
ill rise to
Dollars 6 a bushel or more by March. Very quickly after that, ho
wever, the
realities of a record-breaking Brazilian crop are likely to stall
any rally.
Mr Loewy forecasts a 10.2 per cent increase in Brazilian soyabea
n acreage,
with Brazilian officials estimating a crop between 2m and 3m tonn
es higher
than last year's 19.2m tonnes.
Until the Brazilian harvest however
, the markets will shift on every rumour
of crop conditions, fuelling flurri
es in the Chicago soyabean futures pit.
Countries:-
U
SZ USA.
Industries:-
P01 Agricultural Production-Crop
s.
P0219 General Livestock, NEC.
Types:-
MKTS Mar
ket Data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
MKTS Production.
The
Financial Times
London Page 22
============= Transaction # 153 ==============================================
Transaction #: 153 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-9644
_AN-CBKBQACWFT
9202
11
FT 11 FEB 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Low Cuban
sugar crop forecast
By DAMIAN FRASER
MEXICO CITY
CUBA'S SUGAR crop is at best likely
to be 6.5m tonnes in 1991-92, about 1.1m
tonnes less than in 1990-91, accor
ding to a group of sugar experts who
gathered together in the Dominican repu
blic under the auspices of the
(moderate) Cuban exile group, Sociedad Econom
ica de los Amigos del Pais.
The experts - who included a senior official fro
m the US Department of
Agriculture, analysts from FO Licht, the German sugar
statistics agency,
Scudder Group, Czarnikow, the London trade house, and as
sorted academics -
believed that Cuba failed to harvest any sugar in the las
t two months of
1991. This would reduce the seasonal (November-June) harvest
by between
300,000 and 1m tonnes.
In January harvesting appears to have bee
n very slow. Even if the weather
holds up, the experts agreed that Cuba woul
d be lucky to produce 6.5m tonnes
this year, given the shortages of spare pa
rts, poor maintenance of
equipment, and problems in the field. The onset of
rain would push the
forecast even lower, said Mr Gerry Hagelberg, of FO Lich
t.
In November the USDA estimated that Cuba's production would reach 7.3m
to
nnes. Mr Peter Buzzanell, the official responsible for estimates,
suggested
that the department would formally revise its estimate downwards
as early as
this week.
The drop of production, if it materialises, will hit Cuba's batt
ered economy
hard - for the first time it is having to sell sugar (usually 7
5 per cent of
exports) at world, rather than preferential prices. But it wil
l come as
welcome news to the world sugar market, which has been bracing its
elf for a
flood of sugar after the collapse of Cuba's barter trade with the
former-Soviet Union.
In the nine months to last September, Cuba exported 6.1
5m tonnes of sugar,
of which 3.7m tonnes went to the Soviet Union, 740,000 t
onnes to China,
about 500,000 tonnes to Japan and Canada and the remainder t
o assorted
countries. In the full year Cuba promised to send the Soviet Unio
n 4m tonnes
of sugar in return for 10m tonnes of oil and other products. (An
exchange
that valued Cuban sugar at about 24 cents a lb, compared with a wo
rld price
of 8 cents a lb).
This year, however, Cuba has had to renegotiate
with ex-Soviet Union states.
So far Russia has agreed to buy (with oil) 500,
000 tonnes of Cuban sugar,
with an option to buy another 500,000 tonnes; Kaz
akhstan will take another
200,000 tonnes, with an option for 200,000 tonnes;
and Latvia 50,000 tonnes.
Cuba will thus have to find a home for about 1.5m
tonnes of sugar that in
the past went to the Soviet Union, assuming product
ion at the lower 6.5m
tonnes (and exports at around 5.4m tonnes), and the op
tions fully taken up.
Some of this excess sugar will go to other ex-Soviet s
tates that have yet to
sign trade agreements with Cuba, and, says Mr Hagelbe
rg, perhaps as much as
400,000 tonnes to Iran and South Korea.
Nevertheless
the world markets could still be expected to absorb about 1m
tonnes of extra
Cuban sugar this year - unless Cuba's crop deteriorates
still further.
The Financial Times
London Page 28
============= Transaction # 154 ==============================================
Transaction #: 154 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-12369
_AN-EKBD9AA5FT
941
102
FT 02 NOV 94 / Russia cuts off Cuba's oil supplies <
/HEADLINE>
By JOHN LLOYD and PASCAL FLETCHER
MOSCOW, HAVANA
Russia has suspended shipments of oil
to Cuba because the Caribbean state
has not met its promised level of sugar
exports to Russia, Mr Oleg Davydov,
the Russian trade minister, said yester
day. The cut in supplies to a country
which once enjoyed the closest links w
ith the former Soviet Union is
expected to further damage the recession-hit
Cuban economy.
The decision is in line with Russia's attitude to other count
ries which once
enjoyed oil imports for barter, or at prices far below the w
orld market
level - including former Soviet states which are now independent
countries.
Mr Davydov said Russia had exported 1.5m tonnes of oil to Cuba,
but had
received only 500,000 tonnes of sugar - 550,000 tonnes short of the
amount
agreed. He said Russia would sell the remaining 1m tonnes of oil it h
ad
agreed to ship to Cuba on the world market, 'adding around Dollars 120m t
o
the national budget'. 'If after our own sugar harvest the need arises to
i
mport more sugar cane, then we are prepared to open negotiations again with
Cuba on this issue in 1995,' Mr Davydov said. He added, however, that the
ba
rter of sugar for oil was unprofitable.
An official of the Cuban sugar organ
isation, Cubazucar, said the deal,
agreed last December, was still active -
although only partly fulfilled. 'It
doesn't mean the accord has stopped.' Ho
wever, Cuba would not be able to
deliver sugar until December or January, af
ter this year's harvest.
Countries:-
RUZ Russia, Eas
t Europe.
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries:-
P9721
International Affairs.
Types:-
NEWS General News.
The Financial Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 155 ==============================================
Transaction #: 155 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-11926
_AN-EKCEGAGJFT
941
103
FT 03 NOV 94 / Commodities and Agriculture: Cuba str
uggles to revive sugar sector - A look at problems dogging the mainstay of t
he country's economy
By PASCAL FLETCHER
Cuba's sugar harvest, mainstay of the island's economy, could soon begi
n to
level out after its recent nosedive, but a return to cruising altitude
looks
a long way off.
Just five years ago output was running at a comfortabl
e 8m tonnes a year.
But then it went into a tailspin. The crop fell to a his
toric low of 4m
tonnes in 1993-94 from 4.2m tonnes in 1992-93 and 7m tonnes
the previous
year.
This represented lost export earnings over two harvests o
f Dollars 1bn, a
heavy blow for a sugar-dominated, recession-hit economy who
se total export
revenue in 1993 was an estimated Dollars 1.7 bn.
Faced with
continuing severe input shortages and a reduced level of
harvestable cane, t
he best Cuba can hope for from the 1994-95 season is to
slow the decline in
its leading export industry. If it can do this, the
island may be able to la
y some foundations for a future recovery. But it
will be a hard slog.
Sugar
market analysts, such as London trade house ED & F. Man, have already
predic
ted that Cuban output will continue to fall in 1994-95. Even the Cuban
autho
rities, normally loath to make any public pre-harvest forecasts, are
signall
ing that they expect a crop as low as or lower than last year.
'This is not
a time for spectacular results measured in large volumes of
sugar,' the offi
cial workers' daily Trabajadores said in an October 10
editorial.
'Sugar pro
duction suffers from a syndrome of cycles, either good or bad. . .
if you ha
d a bad previous harvest, recovery is difficult,' said Mr Juan
Triana Cordov
i, deputy director of Havana University's Centre for Studies on
the Cuban Ec
onomy.
It was the sudden collapse after 1990 of crucial Soviet supplies of f
uel,
fertiliser, herbicides and spares that knocked Cuban sugar production o
ff
course. Recent harvests have also been buffeted by unseasonal bad weather
and slowed by declining efficiency.
The antidote proposed by Mr Nelson Torr
es, Cuba's minister for sugar, is a
short, sharp and above all efficient 199
4-95 harvest.
This year's campaign, if it starts this month as usual, will n
ot be allowed
to extend beyond April. In another change of strategy, all of
Cuba's more
than 150 mills will be required to join the harvest to maximise
production.
Last season, more than a dozen below-par mills did not operate,
with the
result that their machinery was 'cannibalised' for other uses and t
heir work
forces dispersed.
The over-extended 1993-94 harvest, which lasted
well beyond May, cut into
growing cane reserves and delayed field cultivatio
n and mill repairs. Mill
managers, struggling to meet pre-set production tar
gets and to compensate
for industrial breakdowns and inefficiency, harvested
cane that could have
been left for the coming season.
Granma, the official
Communist Party newspaper, said in a September 2
article: 'There is going to
be once again - it's no secret - a serious
shortage of cane'. That echoed a
n August, ED & F. Man report warning that
the protracted 1993-94 campaign, c
ontinuing input shortages and reports of
delays in the planting programme me
ant that 'further degradation of (Cuba's)
sugar production cannot be elimina
ted'.
As the start of the harvest approaches, sugar workers have been the ta
rget
of a blitz of official criticism. State media have accused them of duck
ing
out of eight-hour work schedules, using poor quality seed and failing to
weed growing cane. 'Why is the cane in such poor state. . . so full of
weed
s?' state-run Radio Rebelde asked back in September.
Especially targetted fo
r criticism were the cane growing co-operatives, the
so-called basic units o
f co-operative production (UBPCs), created in
September, 1993 as part of a d
ecentralising reform of Cuba's state-run
farming system. 'Why have these UBP
Cs still not been able to contain and
reverse the sharp collapse of the nati
on's greatest resource?' Mr
Trabajadores said six weeks ago.
Reasons cited f
or poor productivity in the cane co-operatives were the lack
of incentives,
delays in obtaining promised benefits like new housing and
even shortages of
work clothes like boots. Government officials were
studying the possibility
of introducing greater material incentives for
sugar workers - whether in l
ocal or hard currency or in access to consumer
goods - like those already av
ailable for workers in Cuba's tourist industry.
To offset harvest manpower s
hortages, Cuba's official trade union
organisation, the CTC, is preparing to
mobilise 61,000 cane cutters across
the island, 25,000 more than last year.
This manual cutting force will also
help to compensate for cutbacks in mach
ine harvesting resulting from
shortages of fuel, lubricants and spare parts.
On the commercial front, Cuba has maintained a hermetic silence over the
st
ate of its strategic sugar trade contracts with Russia and China. Traders
in
London and New York reported as early as June that the country might have
p
roblems meeting all of its export commitments because of the second
consecut
ive low harvest. The Cubans were expected to have sought to roll
over many o
f their commitments into the next crop period, a tactic widely
used even whe
n the island was producing harvests of about 8m tonnes.
The roll-over mechan
ism is considerably less drastic than the force majeure
declared by Cuba in
June, 1993, when torrential rains devastated an already
flagging harvest.
Countries:-
CUZ Cuba, Caribbean.
Industries
:-
P2062 Cane Sugar Refining.
P2061 Raw Cane Sugar.
P0133
Sugarcane and Sugar Beets.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Anal
ysis.
MKTS Production.
The Financial Times
Lon
don Page 35
============= Transaction # 156 ==============================================
Transaction #: 156 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-9039
_AN-EHNABACHFT
9408
13
FT 13 AUG 94 / Commodities (Week in the Markets): Cof
fee traders cautious
By DEBORAH HARGREAVES and KENNE
TH GOODING
The coffee market had a nervous week following a
sharp fall in prices on
Monday as speculators and hedge funds baled out of
futures contracts in New
York to push prices down by 11 per cent.
Monday's s
ell-off on the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange was followed by a
drop of al
most Dollars 200 a tonne in London prices on Tuesday. This pushed
the market
down to Dollars 3,195 a tonne for the November futures contract
at the Lond
on Commodity Exchange.
The market managed to claw back some of its losses la
ter in the week, but
trading remained thin and jittery and last night, at Do
llars 3,285, prices
were still almost 11 per cent lower than Monday's open.
Traders were reluctant to push the coffee market strongly in any direction
a
nd stayed cautious ahead of the US Department of Agriculture report on the
e
xtent of frost damage to Brazil's coffee trees, expected late yesterday.
Mar
ket participants were expecting US estimates to be more optimistic than
Braz
il's own predictions.
The Brazilian authorities estimate that up to 11m bags
or 40 per cent of the
1995 coffee crop has been affected by the frost. Trad
ers believe the US
assessment will put the extent of the damage at between 3
m and 5m bags.
That means the USDA is likely to estimate a crop of between 1
8m and 21m bags
for 1995 while Brazil expects a smaller 17m bags.
Mr Lawrenc
e Eagles, analyst at GNI, the London brokers, said many traders
were waiting
until after the trees flower in September for renewed
assessments of the da
mage. 'Undoubtedly at some stage there will be another
run-up in price, but
the market could fall another Dollars 500 a tonne
before that happens,' he s
aid.
Another USDA report about the prospects for this year's US harvest boos
ted
wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday. The USDA reduced
its
forecast of world wheat output by 5m tonnes to 541.95m tonnes, pushing
wheat
futures prices up by 3 cents to Dollars 3.50 a bushel. The USDA also
f
orecast improved prospects for US wheat exports as well as record US crops
o
f maize and soyabeans.
Meanwhile, this week there was more evidence that the
unprecedented
international trade agreement encouraging aluminium producers
to cut output
is having an increasing impact on the huge surplus that depre
ssed prices for
so long. The International Primary Aluminium Institute said
producer stocks
fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, by 12,000 ton
nes to 1.993m
tonnes.
Since February, when trade delegates from six of the m
ajor
aluminium-producing regions signed a 'memorandum of understanding' abou
t
production cuts, producer stocks have fallen by 141,000 tonnes or 6.6 per
cent. LME stocks also fell in June - the first time in nearly four years
tha
t IPAI and LME stocks had fallen in the same month.
Yesterday the LME report
ed that its stocks had fallen again and Mr Anatoly
Shleyev, head of the stat
istics department at Russia's state metallurgy
committee, suggested his coun
try would be able to meet its promised annual
production cuts of 500,000 ton
nes this year. Nevertheless, he said Russian
aluminium exports were likely t
o be 2m tonnes compared with last year's 1.6m
tonnes. Aluminium for delivery
in three months closed at Dollars 1,490.50 a
tonne on the LME last night, D
ollars 5.25 up on the day and Dollars 41.75 up
over the week.
-------------
-------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
----------------------
----------------------
(As at Thursday's close)
tonnes
--------------------
------------------------
Aluminium -11,175 to 2,491,050
Aluminium a
lloy -60 to 26,480
Copper +3,775 to 346,475
Lead
+2,725 to 365,425
Nickel +468 to 136,128
Zin
c +5,800 to 1,224,400
Tin +200 to 31,165
--------------------------------------------
Countries:-
GBZ United Kingdom, EC.
USZ United States of America.
BRZ B
razil, South America.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tre
e Nuts, NEC.
P6231 Security and Commodity Exchanges.
P0111 Wheat.
P1099 Metal Ores, NEC.
Types:-
MKTS Market data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Finan
cial Times
London Page 12
============= Transaction # 157 ==============================================
Transaction #: 157 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT921-3603
_AN-CCMBUADIFT
9203
13
FT 13 MAR 92 / Commodities and Agriculture: Problems
piling up for Caribbean sugar sector - A wave of labour unrest is adding to
the woes of a struggling industry, writes Canute James
By CANUTE JAMES
A WAVE of industrial unrest in the Carib
bean sugar industry has compounded
earlier problems caused by falling produc
tion and changes in important
markets.
Exporters are having difficulty in re
taining traditional markets and no new
ones are available; some export quota
s have been reduced while some export
commitments are not being fulfilled.
T
he pain is most evident in Barbados, for which the sugar industry is a
relat
ively small but important pillar of the troubled economy. An eight-week
stri
ke that delayed the start of this year's harvest has reduced production
at a
time when the financially strapped industry has been trying to catch
its br
eath.
The industry was shut down late last year because it ran out of money.
The
privately-owned Barbados Sugar Industry Ltd, which operates the island'
s
mills, owes a state-owned bank about USDollars 87m. New money has not been
available because the government is under pressure to reduce state spending
.
It took a loan of Pounds 5m from Barclays Bank of the UK to get the indust
ry
up on its feet again, but preparations by millers to start processing can
e
in January were frustrated by a strike. Unions demanded an increase in wag
es
but the millers said they were unable to pay because of their weak financ
es.
It took the intervention of the country's prime minister to break the
im
passe.
The industry is forecasting production of 50,000 tonnes for this year
, which
will not be enough to meet its quotas to the European Community and
the US
while satisfying domestic demand, for which about 73,000 tonnes would
be
needed.
Failure to fill export quotas has also been a major worry for th
e Guyanese
sugar industry. In each of the past three years the country has p
leaded
force majeure on scheduled shipments to the European Community as pro
duction
has faltered because of strikes and poor weather.
The industry expec
ts to meet its EC quota of 167,000 tonnes this year
although production was
only 155,000 tonnes last year, 25,000 tonnes more
than in 1990. Like other c
ountries that fear a loss of their quotas if they
do not meet the supply sch
edules, Guyana and Barbados may be forced to
import sugar for the domestic m
arket.
'The logic here is quite simple,' explains a Jamaican trade official.
'The
preferential markets such as the EC pay more than the exporters would
get on
the world market. So they ensure they meet their quotas and then buy
cheaply
on the world market for domestic consumption. The EC and the US do n
ot like
this practice, but it is done fairly often.'
In Guyana and Barbados
efforts are being made to improve the management of
the sugar industry and r
aise productivity. Booker Tate, a subsidiary of
Booker of the UK, is managin
g the state-owned industry in Guyana, and will
begin running the Barbados in
dustry later this year.
The marginal improvement in output by the Jamaican i
ndustry over the past
two years was halted by a two-week strike at the islan
d's nine mills that
ended this week. This year's target of 230,000 tonnes, i
f it is achieved,
will allow the island to meet its quota commitments.
The a
dministrators of the industry in the Caribbean complain that region's
market
ing and production plans are being adversely affected by changing
conditions
in important markets, such as the US, where adjustments to import
quotas ar
e frequent. In the current crop year, for example, most of the
Caribbean pro
ducers have had their US quota cut by 35 per cent, and others
by 10 per cent
.
These changes, which are influenced mainly by the level of domestic US
pro
duction, are expected to reduce the Caribbean region's earnings by about
USD
ollars 70m. The reduction is hitting hardest in the Dominican Republic,
wher
e industry has been in decline for the past decade. The cut of 35 per
cent i
n its US quota to 232,500 tonnes this year might have been less
painful had
it not been for uncertainty over another valuable market. The
Dominicans had
been supplying between 50,000 tonnes and 225,000 tonnes a
year to the Sovie
t Union. But with the break-up of the union Dominican
industry officials and
bankers say there is uncertainty about future of
sales to the Commonwealth
of Independent States, as it is now called.
Like most of the other Caribbean
producers, production costs in the
Dominican Republic, which produced 628,0
00 tonnes last year, exceed world
market prices.
Strikes and production cost
s are not likely to be among the problems facing
the sugar sector in Cuba, t
he region's largest producer. Since the break-up
of the Soviet Union, which
was the island's major market, short term
contracts with members of the CIS
have brought some relief. But a
significant reduction in output is likely th
is year because of a late start
to harvesting and a shortage of fuel which h
as overtaken the embattled
economy. There are indications that output this y
ear will be about 1m tonnes
less than last year's 7.6m tonnes.
The US indust
ry, however, is already weighing the consequences of the
changes in Cuba's m
arkets, with suggestions that this could leave the island
with millions of t
onnes to dispose of on the world market. Depression of
prices would be compo
unded by a likely loss of market for some of Cuba's
neighbours, particularly
if there were political changes on the island.
'In a post-Castro Cuba, the
US would try to assist a new government if it is
democratic,' suggests Mr Ju
lio Herrera, president of the Caribbean Basin
Sugar Producers Group. 'Cuba w
ill inevitably turn to the US as a market for
its sugar. The US will be told
that it has a moral obligation to buy Cuban
sugar.'
The Financ
ial Times
London Page 30
============= Transaction # 158 ==============================================
Transaction #: 158 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:18
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT931-8150
_AN-DBUAKACNFT
9302
20
FT 20 FEB 93 / Commodities and Agriculture (Week in t
he markets): Sugar breaks into higher ground:
By RIC
HARD MOONEY
A SERIES of bullish developments this week enab
led the world sugar market to
break free of the strait-jacket that had been
confining prices for some
time.
Having traded mostly between 8 cents and 8.5
cents a lb since last autumn
the prompt March futures position at New York'
s Cocoa, Sugar and Coffee
Exchange leapt in mid-week to 9 cents, a level las
t seen on November 2, and
moved on to a five-month high of 9.53 cents before
edging back yesterday
afternoon.
Market sentiment has hardened in recent we
eks as analysts' assessments of
the likely sugar supply surplus in the 1992-
93 season have been reduced.
London trader ED & F. Man now expects supply to
exceed demand by some 1.5m
tonnes (about 1.3 per cent of annual production)
, compared with the 3.4m
tonnes it was forecasting earlier. And this week C.
Czarnikow, another
London trade house, which in November was forecasting an
830,000-tonnes
surplus, this week adjusted this to a 370,000-tonne deficit
(after allowing
for 'unrecorded disappearance' of 600,000 tonnes ).
However,
the factor that changed firmness into strength this week was talk
circulati
ng among traders that Cuba had been forced to buy 100,000 tonnes of
sugar fr
om Thailand to enable it to honour supply commitments to China and
other Asi
an countries. Cuban sugar minister Mr Juan Herrera warned earlier
this month
that lack of basic inputs had 'caused delays in the start-up of a
significa
nt number of mills'.
Also supporting the market were: a surprise announcemen
t of a 160,000-tonne
Kenyan buying tender for next Monday; a 14,000-tonne Mo
roccan buying tender;
talk of Cuban sales to Mexico and of a 100,000-tonnes
sale to Indonesia; and
a cut in Thailand's harvest forecast from 49.15m tonn
es of cane to 43m
tonnes.
'There have been several important changes in the
statistical outlook for
the 1992-93 crop cycle with adjustments to the suppl
y side of the balance
predominating,' said Czarnikow in the February 17 issu
e of its Sugar Review.
'Production for the season has fallen by some 1.32m t
onnes since our world
forecasts in November and is now expected to slip belo
w last season's output
by some 1.87m tonnes.'
The trade house now estimates
world sugar production at 114.57m tonnes,
compared with 115.89m in November,
and consumption at 114.51m tonnes,
compared with 114.46m tonnes.
Cocoa pric
es put in another steady performance as producers and consumers
prepared for
next week's International Cocoa Agreement (ICCA) negotiations
in Geneva. In
late trading yesterday the New York market's May position was
quoted at Dol
lars 932 a tonne, up Dollars 7 on the week. In London, however,
that firmnes
s was obscured by the dollar's decline against sterling and the
London Futur
es and Options Exchange's May cocoa contract ended Pounds 3 down
on the week
at Pounds 734 a tonne.
The Geneva meeting will mark the fourth and final at
tempt to agree a
price-stabilisation pact to replace the moribund one that e
xpires on
September 30. Delegates were moving towards agreement at the last
session,
in November, that efforts to steady the market should be based on t
he
withholding of between 330,000 and 380,000 tonnes of surplus beans from t
he
market. But they remained far apart on how that was to be financed and on
what price range was to be defended.
The existing ICCA, agreed in 1986, cea
sed to operate as a market support
pact early in 1988, when its buffer stock
reached the 250,000-tonnes
ceiling.
All but one of the London Metal Exchang
e's contracts finished down on the
week, the biggest fall being in copper, w
hich closed yesterday at Pounds
1,551.25 a tonne for three months delivery,
down Pounds 30.50 on the week.
But, as with cocoa's fall, the culprit was th
e sterling rally, but for which
the price would have been modestly higher.
D
ealers said the copper market was supported by concern over production
stopp
ages in Mexico and Papua New Guinea and the expectation of Chinese
buying on
any dip to Dollars 2,220 a tonne, about Dollars 7 below the dollar
equivale
nt of yesterday's close. But the market remained trapped in a narrow
range,
they added, with overhead resistance expected at Dollars 2,231 a
tonne.
Afte
r most of an early fall had been recovered in mid-week the aluminium
market
ended on the downbeat, with the cash position closing yesterday at
Dollars 1
,204.50 a tonne, down Dollars 4 on the day and Dollars 7.75 on the
week.
The
market had been steady in the morning, underpinned by talk of further
produ
ction cuts following Alumax's announcement on Thursday that it was
reducing
output by about 36,000 tonnes a year at its Mount Holly smelter.
Fears that
the Bonneville Power Administration restrictions could increase
energy costs
for some US smelters were also providing support. But prices
again ran into
overhead resistance and fell away during the afternoon.
Among the precious
metals platinum and palladium prices reversed last week's
gains as confidenc
e was rocked by nervousness about US economic policy and a
report that Japan
ese car makers were to cut imports of the metals, both of
which are used in
exhaust catalysts.
Dollar weakness helped gold to mount another assault on t
he upper end of its
recent Dollars 327-Dollars 332 a troy ounce trading rang
e on Tuesday. Once
again it was repelled, as was a fresh attempt yesterday.
-----------------------------------
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS
(As at
Thursday's close)
-----------------------------------
tonnes
------------
-----------------------
Aluminium +2,100 to 1,650,550
Copper unchgd at
319,425
Lead -650 to 234,425
Nickel +1,176 to 82,164
Zinc
+7,600 to 546,600
Tin +15 to 17,135
-----------------
------------------
Countries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P0179 Fruits and Tree Nuts, NEC.
P1021 Copper Or
es.
P0722 Crop Harvesting.
P1099 Metal Ores, NEC.
P33 Primary
Metal Industries.
P5051 Metals Service Centers and Offices.
T
ypes:-
MKTS Market data.
COSTS Commodity prices.
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 159 ==============================================
Transaction #: 159 Transaction Code: 23 (Saved Recs. Viewed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:20
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 160 ==============================================
Transaction #: 160 Transaction Code: 27 (Saved Recs. Win. Exited)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:26
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: or Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 161 ==============================================
Transaction #: 161 Transaction Code: 1 (New Interface Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Bool Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:52
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: AND Button 3: and
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 162 ==============================================
Transaction #: 162 Transaction Code: 1 (New Interface Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:11:57
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 163 ==============================================
Transaction #: 163 Transaction Code: 15 (Terms Cleared)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:12:09
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 164 ==============================================
Transaction #: 164 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:14:03
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 165 ==============================================
Transaction #: 165 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:14:06
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
{ERR {Status 0} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {Unsupported Use attrib
ute -- 29}
============= Transaction # 166 ==============================================
Transaction #: 166 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:14:12
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 167 ==============================================
Transaction #: 167 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:14:23
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
{ERR {Status 0} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {Unsupported Use attrib
ute -- 29}
============= Transaction # 168 ==============================================
Transaction #: 168 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:14:36
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 169 ==============================================
Transaction #: 169 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:14:43
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
{ERR {Status 0} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {Unsupported Use attrib
ute -- 29}
============= Transaction # 170 ==============================================
Transaction #: 170 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:15:07
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 171 ==============================================
Transaction #: 171 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:15:29
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
{ERR {Status 0} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {Unsupported Use attrib
ute -- 29}
============= Transaction # 172 ==============================================
Transaction #: 172 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:15:34
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 173 ==============================================
Transaction #: 173 Transaction Code: 37 (General (non-Tcl) Error)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 1 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:15:36
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
{ERR {Status 0} {Hits 0} {Received 0} {Set Default}} {Unsupported Use attrib
ute -- 29}
============= Transaction # 174 ==============================================
Transaction #: 174 Transaction Code: 0 (New Host Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:15:50
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 175 ==============================================
Transaction #: 175 Transaction Code: 35 (New Host Connected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:15:51
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 176 ==============================================
Transaction #: 176 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:16:11
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 177 ==============================================
Transaction #: 177 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:16:18
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 38012 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 178 ==============================================
Transaction #: 178 Transaction Code: 6 (Direct Rank Search)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:17:01
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 2 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind "(topic @ {robotics developments})"
============= Transaction # 179 ==============================================
Transaction #: 179 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:17:07
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 38012 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 180 ==============================================
Transaction #: 180 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:17:26
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-4774
_AN-CIEASADWFT
9209
04
FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs
By ANDREW BAXTER
The drive for competitiveness
and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
The Financial Times
London Page 15
============= Transaction # 181 ==============================================
Transaction #: 181 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:21:34
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-4774
_AN-CIEASADWFT
9209
04
FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs
By ANDREW BAXTER
The drive for competitiveness
and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
The Financial Times
London Page 15
============= Transaction # 182 ==============================================
Transaction #: 182 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:21:40
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT933-4691
_AN-DIHB8ABGFT
9309
08
FT 08 SEP 93 / World Trade News: ABB robots deal with
GM Europe
By ANDREW BAXTER
ABB Rob
otics, part of Asea Brown Boveri, has won a 'breakthrough' order
worth nearl
y Dollars 20m to supply more than 200 industrial robots to
General Motors Eu
rope.
The deal is ABB Robotics' first European order from GM, which has prev
iously
bought most of its robots from its former joint venture company, GMFa
nuc
Robotics.
Last year, however, GM sold its 50 per cent stake in GMFanuc t
o its partner,
Fanuc of Japan, as part of its strategy to concentrate on its
core business
of vehicle production.
The robots are part of substantial inv
estments by GM at its plants in
Belgium, Germany, Sweden and the UK. At leas
t 120 of the robots ABB is
supplying will go to the Vauxhall Motors plant in
Luton.
Most of the robots will be delivered next year, and will be mainly u
sed for
spot welding. ABB Robotics said the performance and cost efficiency
of its
product line were key factors in winning the order against fierce Jap
anese
competition.
ABB Robotics' and the renamed Fanuc Robotics are the two
biggest suppliers
of robots to European industry. Over the past decade, the
automotive
industry has been the largest customer for industrial robots. It
remains
important to the robot industry even if growth opportunities are hig
her in
less robotised industrial sectors such as the food industry.
Companies:-
ABB Robotics.
Countries:-
BE
Z Belgium, EC.
DEZ Germany, EC.
SEZ Sweden, West Europe.
GBZ
United Kingdom, EC.
Industries:-
P3569 General Industr
ial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
MKTS Contracts.
The Financial Times
London Page 7
============= Transaction # 183 ==============================================
Transaction #: 183 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:22:06
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT944-18195
_AN-EJED5AA3FT
941
005
FT 05 OCT 94 / Industrial robots 'set to soar by one
third': Potential for expansion enormous, says report
By FRANCES WILLIAMS
GENEVA
The
world's industrial robot population is forecast to soar by more than a
thir
d over the four years to 1997, according to a report published by the
United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the International
Federation of
Robotics yesterday.*
The report, the first in an annual series, says sagging
growth in robot
investment bottomed out in 1993 and numbers are set to jump
from 610,000 at
the end of last year to more than 830,000 by the end of 199
7. Annual sales
are predicted to rise from about 54,000 units in 1993 to mor
e than 103,000
units in 1997.
Japan accounts for more than half the world's
robot stock, equivalent to 325
robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers
. It is followed by Singapore
(109), Sweden (73), Italy (70) and Germany (62
).
Use of robots is most widespread in the motor vehicle industry, which
acc
ounts for between a third and more than one-half of robots in use in
countri
es such as France, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan and
Britain.
Tho
ugh Japan now has the highest number of robots in the electrical and
electro
nic industry, it remains the world leader by far in the use of robots
for ve
hicle manufacture.
In the transport equipment sector, which includes motor v
ehicles, Japan has
1,000 robots for every 10,000 workers, compared with 167
in Sweden, 110 in
France and 63 in Britain.
In most countries, especially th
ose with big motor vehicle industries,
robots are used most frequently for w
elding.
But in some countries machining is the most common application. In J
apan 40
per cent of the robot stock is used for assembly, reflecting the lar
ge-scale
use of robots in the electronic sector.
The potential for expansion
of robotics is enormous. Numbers would explode
if other industrialised coun
tries were to reach Japan's robot densities and
if industry in general were
to reach only half the robot density of the
motor vehicle sector.
If all ind
ustries in France and Britain had half as many robots as the motor
industry
in these countries, the robot stock would more than double. If it
reached ha
lf the density of the Japanese motor vehicle industry, it would
increase mor
e than 20-fold.
*World Industrial Robots 1994: Statistics 1983-93 and foreca
sts to 1997.
Sales No. GV. E94.0.24, UN Sales section, Palais des Nations, C
H-1211 Geneva
10, Dollars 120.
Countries:-
CHZ Switz
erland, West Europe.
Industries:-
P3569 General Industr
ial Machinery, NEC.
P3548 Welding Apparatus.
Types:-
MKTS Market shares.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
The Financia
l Times
London Page 4
============= Transaction # 184 ==============================================
Transaction #: 184 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:22:33
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT924-11363
_AN-CJ0BMAC4FT
921
027
FT 27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches
Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an
industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie,
63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company
wi
th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design.
Under
his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of
Engin
eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused
worl
dwide interest.
*****
Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d
irector with Mecca
Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM
S in the UK in
succession to Richard Hargrave.
*****
Clive Ainsworth, former
ly commercial director of Frontline, has been
appointed md of Databit CCSL,
a SIEMENS company.
*****
Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq
uare D, has been
appointed divisional director of drives & standard products
group of Siemens
in the UK.
The Financial Times
London Page 20
============= Transaction # 185 ==============================================
Transaction #: 185 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:22:59
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT924-11363
_AN-CJ0BMAC4FT
921
027
FT 27 OCT 92 / People: Electronic switches
Arthur Collie, a leading robotics expert, has been appointed as an
industrial professor by the University of Portsmouth. Scottish-born Collie,
63, is technical director of Portech, the Portsmouth engineering company
wi
th whom the university has a co-operative agreement on robotic design.
Under
his leadership, the university's robotics group within the Faculty of
Engin
eering has developed a series of wall-climbing robots which has aroused
worl
dwide interest.
*****
Andy Etherington, formerly marketing and development d
irector with Mecca
Leisure, has been appointed md of GRUNDIG BUSINESS SYSTEM
S in the UK in
succession to Richard Hargrave.
*****
Clive Ainsworth, former
ly commercial director of Frontline, has been
appointed md of Databit CCSL,
a SIEMENS company.
*****
Brandon Barnwell, formerly European president of Sq
uare D, has been
appointed divisional director of drives & standard products
group of Siemens
in the UK.
The Financial Times
London Page 20
============= Transaction # 186 ==============================================
Transaction #: 186 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:23:01
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11018
_AN-EHBDUACKFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work
- Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population
By ANDREW FISHER
A nifty little robot d
arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it
into a truck. Inside a
power station, another robot carries out vital
maintenance work. A hard-pres
sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and
patients.
Hard to imagine thoug
h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on
such applications - an
d on robots for the home - although it will probably
not be until well into
the next century that they can be put into practice.
Labour will be in short
supply in coming years. The 125m population is
ageing and will slowly decli
ne as the birth rate falls.
'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio
ns in Japan,' says Kazuo
Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory
at Fujitsu, the Japanese
computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy
stems to replace young
people.'
Most people do not want to do the so-called
'3K' jobs - denoting the
Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous'
- such as working in
hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati
ons and cleaning.
Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for
handling mail and
other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home.
T
he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer
syste
ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The
robots wi
ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to
adapt to th
eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous
systems using
neural networks,' says Asakawa.
In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president
of the University of Tokyo,
robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e
conomic and social problems.
'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated
labour force to invent these
kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in
dustry must look ahead to new
products such as these to prepare for a future
in which over-production and
over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth.
Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high
co
sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common
w
ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of
'ho
llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up
productio
n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The
electronics
companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car
makers have
been expanding their overseas operations.
'We must change the direction of e
ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in
engineering design theory. He thi
nks industry should lean
towards more automation of services such as healthc
are and cleaning. He
talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service
s', with intelligent,
computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward
and dirty work now
done by humans.
In other countries, where unemployment i
s high, this is less of an issue.
But Japan's unemployment rate is less than
3 per cent, kept low by the
tradition of lifetime employment and the high l
evel of consensus and
discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re
cession after the
bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s.
Japane
se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the
world.
In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than
280,000 were
advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or
learning controls
), according to latest statistics from the United Nations
and the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000
(42,000 advanced) in t
he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany.
The electronics industry is the bigges
t user of robots in Japan, followed by
cars. But the advanced applications e
nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and
others are still at the pilot stage. The
Ministry of International Trade and
Industry supports some of them. Work is
progessing on robots to take the
backache out of nurses' lifting work and on
micromachines to help doctors
operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic
ine to certain parts of the
body.
The rubbish-collecting robots described by
Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social
robots' - are still at the basic research
stage. 'I can't say when they will
be ready. The direction of research is t
o invent new robotics for use on the
roads and streets of a city. I hope thi
s will be completed in five to 10
years.'
A programme to develop robots to e
nter the containment vessels of nuclear
power plants and carry out maintenan
ce work began in 1978, he says. The
first prototype was too heavy at 400kg.
Toshiba then made a more
sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work.
But power companies are
reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for
work in which safety and
reliability is essential.
'My idea is first mainten
ance, then social and then home robots,' says
Yoshikawa. All these areas, he
feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through
intelligent automation. Ultimat
ely, the home could be the biggest market for
robots. But to do household cl
eaning and other work, they must be made of
softer materials than metal and
have more flexible gear systems to fit in
with the random pattern of life in
the home.
Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But
he adds
that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s
hown
considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer
programs for domestic use.
Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur
rying around Japanese
streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo
bs and taking some of
the strain out of daily life.
Countries:-
JPZ Japan, Asia.
Industries:-
P3569 General
Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Ana
lysis.
TECH Products & Product use.
MGMT Management & Marketing.
<
/TP>
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 187 ==============================================
Transaction #: 187 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:25:57
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11018
_AN-EHBDUACKFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work
- Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population
By ANDREW FISHER
A nifty little robot d
arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it
into a truck. Inside a
power station, another robot carries out vital
maintenance work. A hard-pres
sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and
patients.
Hard to imagine thoug
h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on
such applications - an
d on robots for the home - although it will probably
not be until well into
the next century that they can be put into practice.
Labour will be in short
supply in coming years. The 125m population is
ageing and will slowly decli
ne as the birth rate falls.
'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio
ns in Japan,' says Kazuo
Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory
at Fujitsu, the Japanese
computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy
stems to replace young
people.'
Most people do not want to do the so-called
'3K' jobs - denoting the
Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous'
- such as working in
hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati
ons and cleaning.
Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for
handling mail and
other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home.
T
he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer
syste
ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The
robots wi
ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to
adapt to th
eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous
systems using
neural networks,' says Asakawa.
In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president
of the University of Tokyo,
robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e
conomic and social problems.
'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated
labour force to invent these
kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in
dustry must look ahead to new
products such as these to prepare for a future
in which over-production and
over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth.
Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high
co
sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common
w
ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of
'ho
llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up
productio
n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The
electronics
companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car
makers have
been expanding their overseas operations.
'We must change the direction of e
ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in
engineering design theory. He thi
nks industry should lean
towards more automation of services such as healthc
are and cleaning. He
talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service
s', with intelligent,
computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward
and dirty work now
done by humans.
In other countries, where unemployment i
s high, this is less of an issue.
But Japan's unemployment rate is less than
3 per cent, kept low by the
tradition of lifetime employment and the high l
evel of consensus and
discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re
cession after the
bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s.
Japane
se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the
world.
In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than
280,000 were
advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or
learning controls
), according to latest statistics from the United Nations
and the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000
(42,000 advanced) in t
he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany.
The electronics industry is the bigges
t user of robots in Japan, followed by
cars. But the advanced applications e
nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and
others are still at the pilot stage. The
Ministry of International Trade and
Industry supports some of them. Work is
progessing on robots to take the
backache out of nurses' lifting work and on
micromachines to help doctors
operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic
ine to certain parts of the
body.
The rubbish-collecting robots described by
Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social
robots' - are still at the basic research
stage. 'I can't say when they will
be ready. The direction of research is t
o invent new robotics for use on the
roads and streets of a city. I hope thi
s will be completed in five to 10
years.'
A programme to develop robots to e
nter the containment vessels of nuclear
power plants and carry out maintenan
ce work began in 1978, he says. The
first prototype was too heavy at 400kg.
Toshiba then made a more
sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work.
But power companies are
reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for
work in which safety and
reliability is essential.
'My idea is first mainten
ance, then social and then home robots,' says
Yoshikawa. All these areas, he
feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through
intelligent automation. Ultimat
ely, the home could be the biggest market for
robots. But to do household cl
eaning and other work, they must be made of
softer materials than metal and
have more flexible gear systems to fit in
with the random pattern of life in
the home.
Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But
he adds
that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s
hown
considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer
programs for domestic use.
Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur
rying around Japanese
streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo
bs and taking some of
the strain out of daily life.
Countries:-
JPZ Japan, Asia.
Industries:-
P3569 General
Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Ana
lysis.
TECH Products & Product use.
MGMT Management & Marketing.
<
/TP>
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 188 ==============================================
Transaction #: 188 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:26:07
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-129
_AN-BENBQAC6FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector
By ANDREW BAXTER
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
-very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
The Financial Times
London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
(right): important consolidations (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 189 ==============================================
Transaction #: 189 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:28:12
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-129
_AN-BENBQAC6FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector
By ANDREW BAXTER
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
-very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
The Financial Times
London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
(right): important consolidations (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 190 ==============================================
Transaction #: 190 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:28:17
Selec. Rec. #: 9
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-9444
_AN-CEGBFAFXFT
9205
07
FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe
By ANDREW BAXTER
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
cent in electronics
-the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
-has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
The Financial Times
London Page 18
============= Transaction # 191 ==============================================
Transaction #: 191 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:31:11
Selec. Rec. #: 9
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-9444
_AN-CEGBFAFXFT
9205
07
FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe
By ANDREW BAXTER
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
cent in electronics
-the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
-has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
The Financial Times
London Page 18
============= Transaction # 192 ==============================================
Transaction #: 192 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:31:14
Selec. Rec. #: 10
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-4414
_AN-CFEA9AEEFT
9206
05
FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots
By ANDREW BAXTER
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
The Financial Times
London Page III
============= Transaction # 193 ==============================================
Transaction #: 193 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:31:57
Selec. Rec. #: 10
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-4414
_AN-CFEA9AEEFT
9206
05
FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots
By ANDREW BAXTER
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
The Financial Times
London Page III
============= Transaction # 194 ==============================================
Transaction #: 194 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:32:02
Selec. Rec. #: 11
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT934-9399
_AN-DKOCBAFRFT
9311
10
FT 10 NOV 93 / ABB enters robot venture with Renault
By JOHN RIDDING
PARIS
ASEA Brown Boveri, the Swedish-Swiss engineering group, yesterd
ay
strengthened its position in the market for industrial robots, by agreein
g
to acquire the robotics operations of Renault and form a joint venture in
automated vehicle assembly with the French car group.
The two companies said
the 50-50 venture would employ about 290 people and
have annual sales of ab
out Dollars 80m. After the acquisition of Renault's
robotic operations, ABB'
s French robotic operations will have annual sales
of about Dollars 60m and
employ about 200 people.
Mr Stelio Demark, managing director of ABB Robotics
, said that the deals
with Renault were a central element in the company's s
trategy of shifting
from a product supplier to a partner of industrial group
s in the design and
manufacture of automated systems. He said that the joint
venture, which will
centre on 'body in white' activities - where cars are a
ssembled and welded
together - would give ABB access to Renault's production
line expertise and
enable it to offer higher value-added products and servi
ces.
The proposals, which require final approval by Renault employees, would
give
ABB its first joint venture project with a carmaker, the biggest marke
t for
robotics, and its first direct participation in the assembly stage of
the
production line.
Mr Demark said that prices for industrial robots had fa
llen by between 25
and 30 per cent over the past few years, prompting the Re
nault sale.
Renault's robotics operation, the largest in France, accounts fo
r about 12
per cent of total sales of FFr1.4bn (Dollars 238m) from its autom
ation
division. The French group will retain management control of the separ
ate
joint venture for at least two years.
According to Mr Demark, the market
for industrial robots has strong growth
potential, in spite of the fall in
prices. He said that while in Japan there
are 25 robots for every 1,000 manu
facturing workers, the ratio is lower in
Europe: in France, there are three
robots per 1,000 workers.
ABB estimates that it has about 20 per cent of the
world market for robots
with more than 33,000 currently in operation. Last
year, ABB's robot
division achieved sales of about Dollars 350m. ABB has wor
ked with Renault
on several automation projects, including the Twingo and Cl
io cars. It also
supplies Volvo, with which Renault is planning to merge.
Companies:-
Asea Brown Boveri.
Renault.
ABB Rob
otics.
Countries:-
CHZ Switzerland, West Europe.
S
EZ Sweden, West Europe.
FRZ France, EC.
Industries:-
P3569 General Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CO
MP Mergers & acquisitions.
The Financial Times
Int
ernational Page 17
============= Transaction # 195 ==============================================
Transaction #: 195 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:32:10
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 38012 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 196 ==============================================
Transaction #: 196 Transaction Code: 12 (Record Relevance Feedback)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 15:32:19
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 16:00:00
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
zfind Default:2,5,6,8,9,10
============= Transaction # 197 ==============================================
Transaction #: 197 Transaction Code: 14 (Search Results Displayed)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:33:38
Selec. Rec. #: 0
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 210143 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 12 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
============= Transaction # 198 ==============================================
Transaction #: 198 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:33:43
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-9444
_AN-CEGBFAFXFT
9205
07
FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe
By ANDREW BAXTER
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
cent in electronics
-the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
-has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
The Financial Times
London Page 18
============= Transaction # 199 ==============================================
Transaction #: 199 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:33:44
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-4414
_AN-CFEA9AEEFT
9206
05
FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots
By ANDREW BAXTER
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
The Financial Times
London Page III
============= Transaction # 200 ==============================================
Transaction #: 200 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:33:49
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-129
_AN-BENBQAC6FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector
By ANDREW BAXTER
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
-very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
The Financial Times
London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
(right): important consolidations (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 201 ==============================================
Transaction #: 201 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:33:51
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-4774
_AN-CIEASADWFT
9209
04
FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs
By ANDREW BAXTER
The drive for competitiveness
and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
The Financial Times
London Page 15
============= Transaction # 202 ==============================================
Transaction #: 202 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:01
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11018
_AN-EHBDUACKFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work
- Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population
By ANDREW FISHER
A nifty little robot d
arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it
into a truck. Inside a
power station, another robot carries out vital
maintenance work. A hard-pres
sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and
patients.
Hard to imagine thoug
h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on
such applications - an
d on robots for the home - although it will probably
not be until well into
the next century that they can be put into practice.
Labour will be in short
supply in coming years. The 125m population is
ageing and will slowly decli
ne as the birth rate falls.
'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio
ns in Japan,' says Kazuo
Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory
at Fujitsu, the Japanese
computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy
stems to replace young
people.'
Most people do not want to do the so-called
'3K' jobs - denoting the
Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous'
- such as working in
hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati
ons and cleaning.
Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for
handling mail and
other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home.
T
he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer
syste
ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The
robots wi
ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to
adapt to th
eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous
systems using
neural networks,' says Asakawa.
In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president
of the University of Tokyo,
robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e
conomic and social problems.
'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated
labour force to invent these
kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in
dustry must look ahead to new
products such as these to prepare for a future
in which over-production and
over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth.
Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high
co
sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common
w
ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of
'ho
llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up
productio
n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The
electronics
companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car
makers have
been expanding their overseas operations.
'We must change the direction of e
ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in
engineering design theory. He thi
nks industry should lean
towards more automation of services such as healthc
are and cleaning. He
talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service
s', with intelligent,
computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward
and dirty work now
done by humans.
In other countries, where unemployment i
s high, this is less of an issue.
But Japan's unemployment rate is less than
3 per cent, kept low by the
tradition of lifetime employment and the high l
evel of consensus and
discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re
cession after the
bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s.
Japane
se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the
world.
In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than
280,000 were
advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or
learning controls
), according to latest statistics from the United Nations
and the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000
(42,000 advanced) in t
he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany.
The electronics industry is the bigges
t user of robots in Japan, followed by
cars. But the advanced applications e
nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and
others are still at the pilot stage. The
Ministry of International Trade and
Industry supports some of them. Work is
progessing on robots to take the
backache out of nurses' lifting work and on
micromachines to help doctors
operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic
ine to certain parts of the
body.
The rubbish-collecting robots described by
Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social
robots' - are still at the basic research
stage. 'I can't say when they will
be ready. The direction of research is t
o invent new robotics for use on the
roads and streets of a city. I hope thi
s will be completed in five to 10
years.'
A programme to develop robots to e
nter the containment vessels of nuclear
power plants and carry out maintenan
ce work began in 1978, he says. The
first prototype was too heavy at 400kg.
Toshiba then made a more
sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work.
But power companies are
reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for
work in which safety and
reliability is essential.
'My idea is first mainten
ance, then social and then home robots,' says
Yoshikawa. All these areas, he
feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through
intelligent automation. Ultimat
ely, the home could be the biggest market for
robots. But to do household cl
eaning and other work, they must be made of
softer materials than metal and
have more flexible gear systems to fit in
with the random pattern of life in
the home.
Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But
he adds
that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s
hown
considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer
programs for domestic use.
Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur
rying around Japanese
streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo
bs and taking some of
the strain out of daily life.
Countries:-
JPZ Japan, Asia.
Industries:-
P3569 General
Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Ana
lysis.
TECH Products & Product use.
MGMT Management & Marketing.
<
/TP>
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 203 ==============================================
Transaction #: 203 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:05
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11018
_AN-EHBDUACKFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work
- Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population
By ANDREW FISHER
A nifty little robot d
arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it
into a truck. Inside a
power station, another robot carries out vital
maintenance work. A hard-pres
sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and
patients.
Hard to imagine thoug
h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on
such applications - an
d on robots for the home - although it will probably
not be until well into
the next century that they can be put into practice.
Labour will be in short
supply in coming years. The 125m population is
ageing and will slowly decli
ne as the birth rate falls.
'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio
ns in Japan,' says Kazuo
Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory
at Fujitsu, the Japanese
computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy
stems to replace young
people.'
Most people do not want to do the so-called
'3K' jobs - denoting the
Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous'
- such as working in
hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati
ons and cleaning.
Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for
handling mail and
other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home.
T
he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer
syste
ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The
robots wi
ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to
adapt to th
eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous
systems using
neural networks,' says Asakawa.
In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president
of the University of Tokyo,
robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e
conomic and social problems.
'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated
labour force to invent these
kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in
dustry must look ahead to new
products such as these to prepare for a future
in which over-production and
over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth.
Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high
co
sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common
w
ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of
'ho
llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up
productio
n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The
electronics
companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car
makers have
been expanding their overseas operations.
'We must change the direction of e
ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in
engineering design theory. He thi
nks industry should lean
towards more automation of services such as healthc
are and cleaning. He
talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service
s', with intelligent,
computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward
and dirty work now
done by humans.
In other countries, where unemployment i
s high, this is less of an issue.
But Japan's unemployment rate is less than
3 per cent, kept low by the
tradition of lifetime employment and the high l
evel of consensus and
discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re
cession after the
bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s.
Japane
se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the
world.
In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than
280,000 were
advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or
learning controls
), according to latest statistics from the United Nations
and the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000
(42,000 advanced) in t
he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany.
The electronics industry is the bigges
t user of robots in Japan, followed by
cars. But the advanced applications e
nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and
others are still at the pilot stage. The
Ministry of International Trade and
Industry supports some of them. Work is
progessing on robots to take the
backache out of nurses' lifting work and on
micromachines to help doctors
operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic
ine to certain parts of the
body.
The rubbish-collecting robots described by
Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social
robots' - are still at the basic research
stage. 'I can't say when they will
be ready. The direction of research is t
o invent new robotics for use on the
roads and streets of a city. I hope thi
s will be completed in five to 10
years.'
A programme to develop robots to e
nter the containment vessels of nuclear
power plants and carry out maintenan
ce work began in 1978, he says. The
first prototype was too heavy at 400kg.
Toshiba then made a more
sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work.
But power companies are
reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for
work in which safety and
reliability is essential.
'My idea is first mainten
ance, then social and then home robots,' says
Yoshikawa. All these areas, he
feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through
intelligent automation. Ultimat
ely, the home could be the biggest market for
robots. But to do household cl
eaning and other work, they must be made of
softer materials than metal and
have more flexible gear systems to fit in
with the random pattern of life in
the home.
Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But
he adds
that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s
hown
considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer
programs for domestic use.
Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur
rying around Japanese
streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo
bs and taking some of
the strain out of daily life.
Countries:-
JPZ Japan, Asia.
Industries:-
P3569 General
Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Ana
lysis.
TECH Products & Product use.
MGMT Management & Marketing.
<
/TP>
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 204 ==============================================
Transaction #: 204 Transaction Code: 39 (Full Doc Window --TREC)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:06
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-138
_AN-BENBQACXFT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3
): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai
ded Design, slower growth but healthy
By ANDREW BAXT
ER
THE world market for Cadcam
co
mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but
m
any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the
growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years.
After the phen
omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at
rates of a me
re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to
Dataquest, t
he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth
Dollars 13.
9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by
1995.
Most
big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the
level
of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial
sector
to another. While this means that some markets will see only
incremental gro
wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful
installations are
keen to come back and buy more.
Much of the growth in the next few years, th
erefore, will come from a
combination of new products and new applications t
o tempt long-standing
users, and new customers.
In the latter category some
UK machine tool companies, for example, are only
now replacing their draught
sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because
the cost of the hardware is f
alling but also because their clients demand
it. As with robotics, the use o
f Cadcam is spreading to smaller
manufacturing companies, and particularly t
he subcontractors in the
automotive and aerospace industries.
Mr Roger Smedl
ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo
International, rem
arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than
Pounds 1,000 per head
in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and
chair.
Now, with some
computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including
software, capital exp
enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number
of design companies h
ave gone out of business because they could not finance
a switch to computer
s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending
Pounds 1.5m a year o
n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based
International Automotiv
e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X
system from Computervi
sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build
and prototyping service
s to big automotive manufacturers.
IAD has been a customer of Computervision
, one of the world's leading Cadcam
suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes
, a UK marketing consultant for
Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc
h as Rover and Ford are asking
their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc
am systems are compliant - a
trend that is being driven by the desire for co
ncurrent engineering (design
for manufacturing.)
Computervision, part of Pri
me Computer, is one of a handful of big players
in an industry which continu
es to see new niche products and companies
emerging, and thus boasts dozens
of companies with revenues so small that
they hardly register at all. Most o
f these are US companies, followed by
European groups, with Japan back in th
ird place.
Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie
s, even if
sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l
arger
players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition.
An example of the
latter was the acquisition by Computervision of
Massachusetts-based Premise,
whose technology extends Cadcam back to the
sketching, or back-of-an-envelo
pe stage in the creation of a design. This
process, known as conceptual engi
neering, is generating widespread interest
among manufacturers.
There have b
een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the
late 1980s,
caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits,
has left sev
eral companies by the wayside.
The electronic design automation (EDA) sector
in particular experienced
particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst
ems bought Cadnetics in
1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t
o its bankruptcy filing
in August. In January, the much stronger US company
Intergraph snapped up
Dazix for Dollars 14m.
If the established companies pl
ay their cards right, they ought to be able
to avoid Dazix's fate. There are
significant opportunities in many
geographic and product markets, and the b
ig suppliers with marketing muscle
are best placed to exploit them.
Mr Jim T
ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35
per cent
share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the
biggest m
arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of
reunification.
Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power
network all of
fer scope for Cadcam sales.
Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil
l see its share slip from 35
per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while
Asia will maintain its 28 per
cent share.
In product sectors, Mr Tully sees
the fastest growth in the geographic
information systems (GIS) sector, where
Intergraph is the undisputed leader.
'There's a great deal of interest in g
etting maps on to computer systems,'
he says.
The mechanical sector, which i
s by far the largest, is growing very slowly,
but even here there are opport
unities. In particular, users in this sector
are interested in so-called kno
wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An
example is a system developed by the
small US supplier Rasna, which will
design products such as car bumpers vir
tually automatically, minimising
weight and performing stress analysis on th
e basis of a few parameters and
criteria.
Two other trends look like becomin
g increasingly significant for the
industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys
tems have been mutually
incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their
system have faced a
difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch
anging, because of
'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th
ird-party Cadcam to
be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli
er's product line.
'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to
a lift to growth,'
he says.
Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market
place opening up -
engineering data management.
Cadcam, he says, was a reaso
nably controlled environment in the early 1980s
with the host mainframes loo
king after files. But as engineering companies
have been forced to move more
quickly, it has become more important to find
where information resides in
a company.
Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba
sed on a
workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for
EDM to
control data more closely.
There is probably no better way of assessi
ng the industry's prospects than
to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing,
the introduction of a new
generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th
e risk of design mistakes.
The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p
rogramme supplied by
Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st
ress analysis system.
Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes
, Catia will enable
Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed
completely on
computer.
The Financial Times
Lond
on Page II
============= Transaction # 205 ==============================================
Transaction #: 205 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:20
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-138
_AN-BENBQACXFT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3
): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai
ded Design, slower growth but healthy
By ANDREW BAXT
ER
THE world market for Cadcam
co
mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but
m
any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the
growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years.
After the phen
omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at
rates of a me
re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to
Dataquest, t
he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth
Dollars 13.
9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by
1995.
Most
big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the
level
of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial
sector
to another. While this means that some markets will see only
incremental gro
wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful
installations are
keen to come back and buy more.
Much of the growth in the next few years, th
erefore, will come from a
combination of new products and new applications t
o tempt long-standing
users, and new customers.
In the latter category some
UK machine tool companies, for example, are only
now replacing their draught
sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because
the cost of the hardware is f
alling but also because their clients demand
it. As with robotics, the use o
f Cadcam is spreading to smaller
manufacturing companies, and particularly t
he subcontractors in the
automotive and aerospace industries.
Mr Roger Smedl
ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo
International, rem
arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than
Pounds 1,000 per head
in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and
chair.
Now, with some
computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including
software, capital exp
enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number
of design companies h
ave gone out of business because they could not finance
a switch to computer
s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending
Pounds 1.5m a year o
n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based
International Automotiv
e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X
system from Computervi
sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build
and prototyping service
s to big automotive manufacturers.
IAD has been a customer of Computervision
, one of the world's leading Cadcam
suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes
, a UK marketing consultant for
Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc
h as Rover and Ford are asking
their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc
am systems are compliant - a
trend that is being driven by the desire for co
ncurrent engineering (design
for manufacturing.)
Computervision, part of Pri
me Computer, is one of a handful of big players
in an industry which continu
es to see new niche products and companies
emerging, and thus boasts dozens
of companies with revenues so small that
they hardly register at all. Most o
f these are US companies, followed by
European groups, with Japan back in th
ird place.
Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie
s, even if
sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l
arger
players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition.
An example of the
latter was the acquisition by Computervision of
Massachusetts-based Premise,
whose technology extends Cadcam back to the
sketching, or back-of-an-envelo
pe stage in the creation of a design. This
process, known as conceptual engi
neering, is generating widespread interest
among manufacturers.
There have b
een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the
late 1980s,
caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits,
has left sev
eral companies by the wayside.
The electronic design automation (EDA) sector
in particular experienced
particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst
ems bought Cadnetics in
1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t
o its bankruptcy filing
in August. In January, the much stronger US company
Intergraph snapped up
Dazix for Dollars 14m.
If the established companies pl
ay their cards right, they ought to be able
to avoid Dazix's fate. There are
significant opportunities in many
geographic and product markets, and the b
ig suppliers with marketing muscle
are best placed to exploit them.
Mr Jim T
ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35
per cent
share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the
biggest m
arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of
reunification.
Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power
network all of
fer scope for Cadcam sales.
Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil
l see its share slip from 35
per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while
Asia will maintain its 28 per
cent share.
In product sectors, Mr Tully sees
the fastest growth in the geographic
information systems (GIS) sector, where
Intergraph is the undisputed leader.
'There's a great deal of interest in g
etting maps on to computer systems,'
he says.
The mechanical sector, which i
s by far the largest, is growing very slowly,
but even here there are opport
unities. In particular, users in this sector
are interested in so-called kno
wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An
example is a system developed by the
small US supplier Rasna, which will
design products such as car bumpers vir
tually automatically, minimising
weight and performing stress analysis on th
e basis of a few parameters and
criteria.
Two other trends look like becomin
g increasingly significant for the
industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys
tems have been mutually
incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their
system have faced a
difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch
anging, because of
'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th
ird-party Cadcam to
be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli
er's product line.
'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to
a lift to growth,'
he says.
Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market
place opening up -
engineering data management.
Cadcam, he says, was a reaso
nably controlled environment in the early 1980s
with the host mainframes loo
king after files. But as engineering companies
have been forced to move more
quickly, it has become more important to find
where information resides in
a company.
Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba
sed on a
workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for
EDM to
control data more closely.
There is probably no better way of assessi
ng the industry's prospects than
to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing,
the introduction of a new
generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th
e risk of design mistakes.
The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p
rogramme supplied by
Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st
ress analysis system.
Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes
, Catia will enable
Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed
completely on
computer.
The Financial Times
Lond
on Page II
============= Transaction # 206 ==============================================
Transaction #: 206 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:29
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-135
_AN-BENBQAC0FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6
): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p
roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce
By LORI VALIGRA
TOKYO
IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa
cturer
replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se
t up
full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from
g
etting lonely.
The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there
are a few
showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer'
s factory
near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact
ories are
realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f
ocus their
research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t
he ever
increasing number of machines working by their side.
In past years m
anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving
machines to raise
production. They focused on maximising the use of people,
money, time and ma
terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the
complex machinery b
eginning to surround them.
'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin
es, so the man-machine
interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats
uyama, a manager at
Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo.
'Japan
ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production
has s
hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,'
he sa
ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery
to be
more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example,
weldi
ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as
fuzzy l
ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as
finding an
operational failure, through inferences, as humans do.
The escalating skille
d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth
rate and a more afflue
nt and highly educated society, makes robots an
important component of facto
ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some
companies.
Strong competition i
n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of
investment in labour-
saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting
tools, processing mach
ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force
is expected to be 0.8
per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall
off by half to 0.4 per
cent until 2000, according to Japanese government
statistics. During that t
ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual
economic growth rate.
'T
o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says
Mr
Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association
(Jir
a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the
switch
from a manufacturing to a service economy.
Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y
onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer
blue-collar workers in manufacturing b
y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a
shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo
ung people are a different breed of
worker from those who laboured long hour
s for little pay to build Japan's
industrial miracle.
They want to avoid so-
called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai'
(dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard)
. 'Older men were very patient and had the
Bushido (warrior) morale, but it
is hard to find these people today,' says
Mr Matsuyama.
Replacing them with
machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces
programmable controlle
rs and other electronics products, sees the
improvements that can be made in
factory automation as almost limitless and
including diagnosing system fail
ures and other management tasks.
The improvements span a broad factory autom
ation market valued at almost
Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a
product from design through
production and inspection. The important compon
ents of automating a factory
are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of
the market, as well as
computer-aided design and manufacturing software and
equipment, industrial
robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse
s, computers and
automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou
t a plant site.
Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod
uction
components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin
e
tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power
.
Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16
per cent held by Germany.
Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i
n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki,
for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste
r, in the UK which
produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a
ccording to
industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing
robot market
is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst
allations
worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5
per cent.
Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni
cs and
other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn
ology,
product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese
manuf
acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is
litt
le competition from imports.
The electronics industry is the biggest user of
automation technology. At
its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To
kyo, Toshiba uses its own
laptop computers for design, development and assem
bly of new Toshiba
laptops.
The laptops are used to compute how easily a new
computer model can be
assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget
her one notebook-size
Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important,
because the company is
making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s
pan of each new product
is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition
.
'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is
al
ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga,
who
heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome.
How
ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a
Jap
anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it
increasingly
difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba
replicates about 70
per cent of design work from current models in new ones.
While it took Toshi
ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops
from scratch, it took
only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook.
Though its factory is
about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the
company often comment about
the number of people still present on the
manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s
ays that with the fast-paced product life
cycles, humans are needed. 'There
are problems with automated systems. They
can't catch up with new technology
, so humans are acting as universal super
robots,' he adds.
Fuzzy logic may
help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic,
software that can
help make a decision from unclear information, will help
increase the versat
ility of robots in the future by affording better control
of their movements
. Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed
a test robot that
can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd).
In a New Year's
address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president,
identified fuzzy
logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994,
more than 20 pe
r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of
fuzzy logic. Accord
ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As
part of a computer-in
tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in
production and in mana
ging the company.
'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person
where computers
are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge
neration plant's
circulation control system to clean water and to make decis
ions. Perhaps the
Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide
d with these
systems,' he says.
Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots
and other components, spell
another technological advantage for Japan in th
e future: being able to
change small-scale production quickly, so that multi
ple products can be
produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya
ma predicts Japanese
manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale
production, which is
a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility.
Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense
that market information should be more effectively connected with the
produc
tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible
production
without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in
Osaka.
The com
pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which
more c
losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they
are r
efined.
The Financial Times
London Page IV
============= Transaction # 207 ==============================================
Transaction #: 207 Transaction Code: 19 (Record Selected)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:30
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8066
_AN-EHSD0AB7FT
9408
19
FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
science
By ANDREW FISHER
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).
These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used
in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with
examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers
to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps
everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost &
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market.
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be
very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's
earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks
will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
----------
------------------------------------------------------------
1988 89
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
na 22.7 31.7 41.
4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7
-------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
----------
------------------------------------------------------------
Co
untries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
P7372 Prepackaged Software.
Types:-
<
TP>TECH Products & Product use.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
MKTS Mar
ket shares.
The Financial Times
London Page 10
============= Transaction # 208 ==============================================
Transaction #: 208 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 1
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-9444
_AN-CEGBFAFXFT
9205
07
FT 07 MAY 92 / Technology: Androids on the march - Af
ter years on the breadline, modern robots are finding gainful employment in
Europe
By ANDREW BAXTER
In the US f
ashion industry they call it 'localised abrasion' - the pre-worn
look for de
nim jeans produced by applying potassium permanganate solution to
the knee,
thigh and seat areas.
The faded effect has traditionally been achieved throu
gh manual spraying,
but consistency and quality control have been hard to ac
hieve. Now GMFanuc
Robotics has perfected a robotic solution that is three t
imes faster than
manual spraying, can reproduce a spray pattern to an accura
cy of 0.03 inch,
and can be programmed easily to handle a wide range of garm
ents.
The system is a relatively simple example of recent trends in the indu
strial
robotics industry, which is trying to reduce its dependence on compar
atively
mature automotive markets and find new applications elsewhere.
It is
a trend that is particularly important for robot suppliers in the
European
market, where the overall penetration of robots into industry is
much lower
than in Japan, and where a potentially huge market for
non-automotive applic
ations remains untapped.
According to Massimo Mattucci, vice president for e
ngineering and marketing
at Comau of Italy, around 50 per cent of industrial
robots installed in
Europe are in use in the automotive industry and 20 per
cent in electronics
-the reverse of the situation in Japan.
'The automotiv
e industry has more or less understood the potential of
robots,' says Stelio
Demark, head of ABB Robotics, Europe's largest
producer, although he stress
es, along with other robot industry executives,
the potential of robots in t
he paint-spraying and final assembly area of
European vehicle manufacturing.
The inherent flexibility of modern robots, and the advances made in control
systems and mechanics that have increased their speed and reliability, ough
t
to increase their suitability for small-batch manufacturing in Europe, whe
re
model changes are frequent.
Demark sees new opportunities for robots emer
ging in the European food,
packaging, pharmaceutical and white goods industr
ies.
But the pace at which European industry accepts robots will depend part
ly on
suppliers' ability to counter the mistrust caused by the hype of the 1
970s
and early 1980s, when the robot industry appeared to be carried away by
euphoria over business prospects.
There are other obstacles, too, for suppl
iers to surmount. In Japan, one of
the driving forces behind the growth in t
he industrial robot population to
274,210 in 1990 - nearly 10 times the popu
lation in the former West Germany
-has been labour shortages.
'Everything h
as to come back to economic considerations,' says Axel
Gerhardt, an executiv
e board member of IWKA, the holding company for Kuka,
Germany's largest robo
t supplier. 'In Europe robots are used where it is
economical to do so. In J
apan the question is often whether to produce with
a robot or not to produce
there at all.'
Mistakes have also been made in the installation of robots,
for which the
suppliers and customers have to share the blame. 'People have
tended to put
in a robot, then have an operator standing by watching,' says
Demark. 'This
is a half-way house that I wouldn't recommend.'
Increasingly,
robot suppliers are realising that if they are to make inroads
into the smal
l- and medium-sized businesses that still dominate European
industry - espec
ially outside the automotive sector - they have to
understand better the cu
stomer's needs and worries.
'You have to enter into an economic calculation
with the customer and
demonstrate the ability to find a solution,' says Matt
ucci.
That could mean being paid only for a feasibility study that comes dow
n
against the use of robots. But in the long run this approach makes more
se
nse for an industry that wants to broaden its customer base and maintain
its
reputation.
Comau, which sells most of its robots as part of an integrated
automation
package, is around 90 per cent dependent on the vehicle industry.
Mattucci
wants to expand the remaining 10 per cent of the business to 30 pe
r cent
over the next five years by exploiting the group's strengths in robot
ics for
body-welding, mechanical assembly and difficult handling operations.
The Italian company's most ambitious step away from the automotive sector i
s
its involvement in the Columbus Automation and robotics Testbed (Cat)
prog
ramme financed by the European Space Agency. The ground testbed for the
auto
mation and robotics on board the projected Columbus Space Station will
incor
porate a new Comau robot using advanced materials such as aeronautical
alloy
s and composites.
A more-down-to earth approach to broadening the customer b
ase is in evidence
at GMFanuc, the US/Japanese concern which is the world's
second biggest
supplier. The jean-spraying robot, developed in the US and no
w available in
the UK, offers a high return on investment with a payback of
less than a
year, says Mike Wilson, the UK sales and marketing manager.
Robo
tics are also in their infancy in the European food industry, partly
because
it has hitherto been difficult to turn a hose on to a robot to clean
it wit
hout ruining its electrical circuits. In January, GMFanuc launched its
'Wash
down' robot to conform to the strict hygiene requirements of the food
indust
ry and withstand all the chemical substances likely to be used in
washdown o
r wipedown procedures.
In the European electronics industry, robots are more
frequent but
applications are still developing. Data Packaging, an Irish su
pplier of
plastic moulded components for the computer industry, recently ins
talled an
ABB Robotics painting cell to handle metallic paints used to provi
de an
attractive finish, and assist in electrical shielding, on parts for th
e
Apple Macintosh.
Metallic paints are hard to handle because they block sup
ply lines if not
kept flowing continuously. The ABB system programs the robo
t to fire the
spray gun if the system lays dormant for a given length of tim
e.
Advances such as these are often based on techniques originally developed
for the automotive industry, which is not being neglected in suppliers'
has
te to exploit other markets. A number of fairly recent technologies have
rel
evance to the use of robots in automotive and non-automotive fields.
Laser w
elding, says Wilson, is attracting interest in a number of
industries, inclu
ding aerospace, because of its precision and speed. Unlike
conventional spot
welding, the robot does not have to reach both sides of
the part to be weld
ed.
Another emerging technology, especially when combined with robotics, is
water-jet cutting, which is likely to become increasingly important for
cutt
ing plastics quickly and cleanly. It is already being used in the
automotive
industry for cutting carpets, door panels and instrument panels.
In both ar
eas robot suppliers are forming partnerships with companies which
have devel
oped the technologies so that they can exploit the opportunities
quicker. Co
mau has a co-operation agreement with Trumpf, the German machine
tool builde
r best-known for its laser-cutting machines, while last year ABB
Robotics fo
rmed a joint venture with Ingersoll-Rand of the US to develop and
market a r
obotised water-jet cutting system in Europe.
The search for a broader Europe
an customer base coincides with a much more
price-conscious attitude over th
e past two to three years among customers,
due as much to general business c
onditions as to scepticism about the early
claims made by robot suppliers.
S
uppliers are rationalising their product ranges to give customers what they
want and no more, but using developments in control systems to increase the
applications available from each model.
These conditions give advantages and
disadvantages in more or less equal
measure to European suppliers and Japan
ese/US importers, which control one
third of the market. Demark and Mattucci
strongly believe that the European
suppliers benefit from a approach based
on solutions rather than products.
'The Japanese do not have the solutions f
or European needs,' says Mattucci
flatly. This is a view strongly disputed b
y the Japanese producers, but in a
price-sensitive market the the Japanese d
o have the advantage of size -
investment in control systems, in particular,
can be spread over a bigger
sales base.
Ultimately, though, all the robot s
uppliers could benefit if they can
persuade more European companies of the b
enefits of robots. And that is
likely to be a gradual process where technolo
gy is only one factor in the
equation.
The Financial Times
London Page 18
============= Transaction # 209 ==============================================
Transaction #: 209 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 2
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT922-4414
_AN-CFEA9AEEFT
9206
05
FT 05 JUN 92 / Survey of Vehicle Manufacturing Techno
logy (6): Machines are now used for tasks beyond spot welding - Robots
By ANDREW BAXTER
ROBOTS have become an e
stablished part of the vehicle manufacturing scene
over the past 15 years. T
he motor industry accounts for as much as 40 per
cent of the 450,000 install
ed industrial robots worldwide but their use is
changing and applications ar
e expanding.
The traditional picture of long lines of robots each making bil
lions of spot
welds on car bodies in a working life of eight to 10 years is
still true,
but only half the story. Those same welding robots are as likely
to be
grouped in flexible manufacturing cells and capable of handling a wid
e range
of models in quick succession.
At the same time, smaller robots are
increasingly being used in engine
assembly, where their ability to do qualit
y, repetitive work with a
precision of 1/100th of a millimetre is much in de
mand. Robots are being
used in final assembly work and paint spraying, and s
uppliers hope to be
able to develop these markets now that the technology ha
s been proven.
There is an emerging trend for robots to be used in automotiv
e
sub-contracting, prompted by the vehicle manufacturers' need to be as
conf
ident in the consistency and quality of out-sourced components as for
their
own work.
The shorter lives of car models, prompted by increased competition
in the
industry and the Japanese producers' early efforts to reduce product
development times, are changing the use and design of robots.
The tradition
al practice of replacing a robot after two model cycles may
have been approp
riate when each car model was lasting six to eight years.
But with model liv
es reduced to three to four years, users want to keep
their robots for furth
er models, and thus want increased flexibility,
according to Dr Axel Gerhard
t, a senior board member at the holding company
for Kuka, Germany's largest
robot supplier.
Many of the latest trends in the use of robotics originated
in Japan where
labour shortages have spurred much greater penetration of rob
ots into
industry overall compared with Europe and the US. But robot supplie
rs such
as ABB Robotics, the largest in Europe, believe the European automot
ive
industry is as enthusiastic a user of robotic automation as its Japanese
counterpart.
However, some of the more recent applications of robots are le
ss prevalent
in Europe, giving an opportunity to suppliers if they can convi
nce producers
of the economic benefits. There are national variations too: t
he UK is a
long way behind the US and the rest of Europe in the use of robot
s in the
paint shop, says Mr Mike Wilson, UK sales and marketing director at
GMFanuc
Robotics.
The versatility of modern industrial robots for tasks tha
t go beyond spot
welding is illustrated by Kuka's involvement in final assem
bly of the
Citroen XM. Following painting, robots dismount the doors and tai
lgate, with
the aid of sensors, for completion on separate trim lines; the c
ockpit is
picked up by robot from an automatic guided vehicle, inserted thro
ugh the
door and then bolted to the body by a second robot.
Robots are used
for applying the adhesive sealants and for fitting the glass
exactly into th
e body aperture with the aid of ultrasonic scanners; seats
are inserted by r
obot after measuring the exact position of the body by
means of tactile sens
ors, wheels are mounted and doors and tailgate
refitted.
Some of these tasks
are difficult for robots because of the nature of final
assembly. Robots ar
e having to operate in a less structured environment,
says Mr Wilson, and de
al with less defined objects such as seats.
Another problem, at least outsid
e Japan, is that labour is available and
costs less than in skilled manufact
uring areas. So robot suppliers have to
find applications that create added
value, says Mr Stelio Demark, head of
ABB Robotics.
There are still opportun
ities for greater use of robots further up the
production line. Relatively n
ew processes such as laser-cutting and
water-jet cutting are likely to becom
e more prevalent, in association with
robots, especially for working with pl
astics and new advanced composites.
Mr Demark sees a substantial increase in
automated arc-welding in the
automotive industry and sub-suppliers. And Com
au, the Italian robotics and
systems group, expects some interesting investm
ents in the body area,
prompted by the increased need for new models, accord
ing to Mr Massimo
Mattucci, vice-president for engineering and marketing.
In
paint spraying, says Mr Demark, robots have hardly scratched the surface.
L
ast year, ABB strengthened its position in the robotic painting market with
the acquisition of Graco in the US, but GMFanuc, a US/Japanese concern, and
Behr of Germany have strong positions.
The flexibility of robots to handle m
odel changes will be the key to their
further implementation in the car body
area. In engine and transmission
production, robots are becoming better est
ablished, and Mr Mattucci suggests
a new generation of engines prompted by t
ougher environmental regulations
could be the spur to further investment in
robots.
However, an increasing portion of business for robot suppliers seems
likely
to come from refurbishment of existing robots rather than new purcha
ses as
customers seek maximum value from their manufacturing investments.
In
the past three or four years, this has been a growing trend of robot
refitt
ing and modification in the motor industry, carried out during model
changeo
vers and restoring robots to previous levels of accuracy and
productivity.
<
/TEXT>
The Financial Times
London Page III
============= Transaction # 210 ==============================================
Transaction #: 210 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 3
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-129
_AN-BENBQAC6FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (1
1): Search for new applications - Robotics, still on the fringe of the indus
trial sector
By ANDREW BAXTER
FOR a
ll the hype over the past 20 years about how robots would transform
manufact
uring industry, they still remain on the fringes of the industrial
scene - w
ith the notable exception of manufacturing in Japan.
According to the United
Nations Economic Commission for Europe, the world
industrial robot populati
on stood at 388,000 units at the end of 1989, of
which 220,000 were in Japan
, 56,000 in western Europe, 37,000 in the US and
-very roughly - 75,000 els
ewhere.
There are a number of interconnected reasons for this situation. In
the
past, there has been considerable hostility from trade unions to their
i
ntroduction and managements have taken a lot of convincing about the cost
be
nefits.
Dr Kevin Clarke, manager of manufacturing engineering at PA Consulti
ng
Group, says that, in many instances, robots have not delivered the cost
e
ffectiveness they have promised. Robot manufacturers, he says, have not
deve
loped their products technologically as fast as they might have.
'There's ve
ry little innovation, because the market isn't there,' he says.
However, the
evidence of the past two years suggests that things may be
changing. Those
388,000 units represented an increase of 20 per cent from
the end of 1988, a
nd in 1990 US-based robotics companies won record new
orders of Dollars 517.
4m.
The robotics industry was in deep gloom during 1986 and 1987, and especi
ally
in the US where it had become far too dependent on the motor industry -
which took about 40 to 50 per cent of sales.
Mr Donald Vincent, executive v
ice-president of the US Robotic Industries
Association, recalls that 'when t
he automotive industry quit buying in 1986
and 1987, it sent robotics into a
deep spin.'
This decline had two results. First, it encouraged a much-neede
d
concentration among robot producers. In the middle of the 1980s there were
some 300, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Now,
it says, there are probably fewer than 100 true producers, led by ABB
Robot
ics, part of the Swiss-Swedish Asea Brown Boveri, GMF Robotics, a joint
vent
ure between Fanuc of Japan and General Motors of the US, and Yaskawa of
Japa
n.
Secondly, the downturn prompted an urgent search for new applications for
robots away from the motor industry and its inherent cyclicality. Dr Clarke
singles out 'clean room' applications for robots in health care and
precisi
on engineering, while Mr Vincent is hopeful of new applications in
the food
industry, materials handling and packaging.
The wellspring for this diversif
ication into new markets, which has already
begun, is computer power. In mec
hanical terms, robots are relatively simple
beasts, and robotic technology h
as always been based on the use of computers
to overcome mechanical limitati
ons.
Mr Kenneth Waldron, a robotics expert at Ohio State University, says 't
he
major theme which will direct commercial applications of new research in
robotics will be that of taking advantage of the huge increases in computing
power which have become available as a result of the development of advance
d
microprocessors.'
Mr Waldron notes that most current industrial robot syst
ems offer only
incremental improvements over what was possible with the firs
t generation of
microcomputer controllers.
Current research is looking at ar
eas such as greater use of sensing - of the
robot's environment and internal
state - more sophisticated control
techniques offering greater speed and ac
curacy, robotic mobility and
improved control of the interface between the r
obot and the workpiece.
Given these trends, there has inevitably been consid
erable interest in
industrial vision systems for robots, which could radical
ly change many
applications, particularly in assembly where robots have so f
ar failed to
make their mark.
Previous forecasts for the population of visio
n-equipped robots have not
been realised, but it is reasonable to predict, a
s the IFR has, that the
continuous reduction in prices of computers and sens
ors, and their greater
speed and reliability, will gradually remove the tech
nological and economic
barriers.
Many of the business trends in robotics ove
r the past few years are
illustrated by developments at ABB Robotics, which
claims to be the world's
biggest supplier - a title which the Japanese manuf
acturers might dispute.
ABB's purchase last year of Cincinnati Milacron's ro
botics business was an
important step in the consolidation of the industry a
round leading European
and Japanese suppliers. Mr Stelio Demark, head of ABB
Robotics, says the
Cincinnati business brought with it a tremendous US cust
omer base and
undoubted expertise in spot-welding robotics.
The nature of AB
B's customer base has also been changing, and over the past
five years it ha
s reduced its dependence on the automotive industry from
70-75 per cent of s
ales to 50 per cent. ABB is attracting new business from
small and medium-si
zed companies which had previously not bought robots. 'We
may be supplying o
nes and twos, but it's growing very quickly,' says Mr
Demark.
New markets in
clude glass making, different kinds of process applications,
and palletising
. This effort is backed up by spending on research and
development - 10 per
cent of revenues - that is almost on a par with that of
the pharmaceutical i
ndustry.
Meanwhile the falling cost of electronics is allowing ABB to build
more
capability and flexibility into its robots. ABB's latest product, the I
RB
6000, was officially launched last month with claims of much greater
flex
ibility and capability than rival products.
Because of these developments, M
r Demark is optimistic about future growth
prospects for ABB and the industr
y. The view is shared by independent
observers.
In a report about to be publ
ished by Frost & Sullivan, the international
market research publishers, tot
al world robot sales are forecast to rise
from Dollars 2.15bn in 1990 to Dol
lars 3.41bn in 1996. The relatively small
size of the industry at the end of
the 1980s is a reflection of many of the
factors mentioned above.
F & S see
s the Japanese market's share of world robot sales falling from 65
per cent
last year to 45 per cent in 1996, while Europe's share will rise
from 15 to
20 per cent, the US will mark time at about 6 per cent and the
rest of the w
orld will jump from 14 per cent to just under 30 per cent.
The biggest growt
h area is Asia, which is good news for the Japanese
producers, but Europe, s
ays Mr Demark, is also 'very interesting,' and the
company's home base. F &
S sees the European market rising from Dollars 330m
in 1990 to Dollars 687m
in 1996, with Germany leading the way.
Looking specifically at the European
market, F & S comments that the
'supplier capable of marketing a complete pa
ckage including sensors,
user-friendly software and simple training and inst
allation will achieve the
best sales penetration.'
ABB is probably justified
in claiming that it offers more service and
support to European buyers than
the more product-based approach of the
Japanese, but Dr Clarke wonders whet
her this will still be true in two
years' time. On the other hand Europe, he
says, is probably not one of the
Japanese producers' priorities, given the
better growth prospects in the
Asia Pacific region.
As for the balance of po
wer in the industry, both ABB and the Japanese are
growing stronger, the big
producers are getting bigger, and the smaller
robotics companies, particula
rly in the US and UK, are concentrating on
niches and ancillary services.
If
the big producers can keep up with development in computing, the 1990s
coul
d well bring the rewards that proved so elusive for much fo the 1980s.
The Financial Times
London Page VI Photograph (Omitted
). Photograph ABB robot IRB6000 in a spot welding application (left). Demark
(right): important consolidations (Omitted).
============= Transaction # 211 ==============================================
Transaction #: 211 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 4
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT923-4774
_AN-CIEASADWFT
9209
04
FT 04 SEP 92 / Technology: Heavies move in - After ye
ars of work in mass production, robots are taking on bigger jobs
By ANDREW BAXTER
The drive for competitiveness
and low-cost production may have made the car
industry the natural home for
the world's robot population, but Karlheinz
Langner and his colleagues at I
GM Robotersysteme have other ideas.
Langner, a managing board member at Aust
ria's only robotics company, has his
sights set on industry's heavy brigade.
Less visibly than their counterparts
in the car industry, but with increasi
ng urgency, manufacturers of heavy
equipment - anything from excavators to s
teel bridge sections - want to
improve their product quality and reduce cycl
e times, increase their
manufacturing flexibility and clean up their workpla
ce.
All these issues, in varying degrees, have been tackled successfully by
the
mass-production car industry with the use of robots, but heavy industry
is
very different.
In recent years, many heavy engineering companies have be
en reticent about
robots. They may have been put off by the robot suppliers'
sales patter or
unconvinced that a robot can cope with welding, for example
, a crane boom or
bulk handling container, particularly if each item to be w
elded might be
slightly different from the previous one.
Or they might simpl
y have jibbed at the expense - as much as Dollars 350,000
(Pounds 175,000) f
or a sophisticated system with one or more robots, slides,
gantries and devi
ces to rotate a workpiece that could weigh as much as 15
tonnes. And having
purchased a system, some customers have had to solve
software problems thems
elves to get the robot working correctly.
But companies such as IGM, which c
elebrates its silver jubilee this year,
are spending heavily to find new sol
utions for the use of robots in heavy
industry, and that, in turn, broadens
the market for the robot suppliers.
Some sectors such as shipbuilding, for i
nstance, are only now waking up to
the opportunities for using robots, which
were simply not available five
years ago.
Anybody who has visited a modern
car factory cannot fail to be impressed by
the serried ranks of robots spot
welding body sections or inserting
dashboards. Such machines, however, are w
orlds apart from those produced by
IGM, which specialises in arc or continuo
us path welding and some cutting
robots, and its rivals at the heavy end of
the welding equipment industry
such as Esab of Sweden and Cloos of Germany.
A continuous weld is the norm in construction equipment, for example, to
cop
e with the immense stresses to which plant will be subjected during its
work
ing life, and demands for high-quality welding are increasing.
Grappling wit
h the welding of an excavator boom could require up to 16 axes
of movement f
rom the robot and its surrounding equipment, putting pressure
on the robot s
upplier not only to design the system correctly in mechanical
terms but to e
nsure that the software and sensor systems are sufficiently
sophisticated an
d fast to cope.
In such a market, says Langner, understanding the customer's
needs is of
vital importance. But when almost every customer has a differen
t problem
that may require a customised solution, the challenge could be too
great for
a small company such as IGM, without the years of experience that
produces a
clear product strategy.
Each robot supplier has a different appr
oach, but IGM's is based on two
vital elements, says Langner: a modular desi
gn system to allow the company
to respond to individual customers' needs wit
hout having to reinvent the
wheel, and the decision to keep all control syst
ems development in-house.
Broadening the appeal of robots to heavy industry
requires a combination of
developing the business end of the system (the wel
ding itself), taking the
robot's mechanical engineering to the limits, and c
onstantly updating and
improving the control systems.
IGM develops welding s
ystems together with Fronius, an Austrian welding
equipment company - for th
e customer, after all, the quality of the weld is
the proof of the pudding.
The robot supplier recently introduced a new
high-performance welding techni
que known as Time (transferred ionised molten
energy), developed originally
by a Canadian metallurgical expert.
IGM has also developed an automatic head
change facility, allowing welding
to be followed by flame cutting in one co
ntinuous cycle. This is being used
by a UK customer for welding steel bridge
sections.
As in machine tools, however, while mechanical developments near
their limit
it is the brains of the robot system - its software and sensors,
and the
programming - that is receiving the lion's share of attention. This
is where
the acronyms really begin to proliferate.
So-called off-line progr
amming, where the robot is set up for the next job
without disturbing its pr
esent task, is particularly important when it could
take many hours, if not
days, to start up a new component on a welding
robot.
IGM's latest contribut
ion is IOPS, which uses computer-aided simulation of
production cells and ma
nufacturing lines to get the best configuration of
the welding cell for each
workpiece.
Another important result of the company's R&D work is ISIP, a ne
w
optoelectronic camera system for measuring weld grooves. This uses optical
sensors to determine the position and geometry of the fabrication,
underlin
ing the growing importance of vision systems as the 'eyes' in an
increasingl
y complex 'eyes-brain-hand' environment.
Perhaps the most significant develo
pment at IGM, however, lies at the heart
of the robot software. In a few wee
ks' time, the company will have running a
prototype of a new robot controlle
r based on the transputer, the Inmos
superchip. IGM had realised some five y
ears ago that it needed to have a
more powerful control system, says Langner
, and the new controller will
increase control speeds by a factor of 10.
The
new control should be on IGM's robots by next year, but Langner also
sees a
pplications for the control outside robotics, with initial demand of
about 5
00-1,000 units a year, compared with the 150-200 IGM will need each
year for
its robots. 'But we will not market it by ourselves,' Langner
stresses.
The Financial Times
London Page 15
============= Transaction # 212 ==============================================
Transaction #: 212 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 5
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-11018
_AN-EHBDUACKFT
940
802
FT 02 AUG 94 / Technology: Robots get the dirty work
- Japan is developing intelligent systems to help an ageing population
By ANDREW FISHER
A nifty little robot d
arts down a street, picks up the rubbish and puts it
into a truck. Inside a
power station, another robot carries out vital
maintenance work. A hard-pres
sed nurse uses robotic help to move beds and
patients.
Hard to imagine thoug
h it may be, Japanese research experts are working on
such applications - an
d on robots for the home - although it will probably
not be until well into
the next century that they can be put into practice.
Labour will be in short
supply in coming years. The 125m population is
ageing and will slowly decli
ne as the birth rate falls.
'Such systems are necessary for coming generatio
ns in Japan,' says Kazuo
Asakawa, head of the intelligent systems laboratory
at Fujitsu, the Japanese
computer group. 'We have to develop intelligent sy
stems to replace young
people.'
Most people do not want to do the so-called
'3K' jobs - denoting the
Japanese words for 'dirty, difficult and dangerous'
- such as working in
hospitals, collecting rubbish, maintaining power stati
ons and cleaning.
Asakawa foresees robots also being used in the office, for
handling mail and
other straightforward tasks and eventually in the home.
T
he key to such developments will be neural networks - complex computer
syste
ms that can learn to recognise patterns and react accordingly. The
robots wi
ll be equipped with an array of sensors that will enable them to
adapt to th
eir surroundings. 'In 10 years, we hope to develop autonomous
systems using
neural networks,' says Asakawa.
In the view of Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, president
of the University of Tokyo,
robots could be the answer to many of Japan's e
conomic and social problems.
'It is necessary to use Japan's highly educated
labour force to invent these
kinds of things.' He believes that Japanese in
dustry must look ahead to new
products such as these to prepare for a future
in which over-production and
over-capacity will inhibit industrial growth.
Japan's car industry is already plagued by over-capacity, as well as high
co
sts; the surge in the yen is eating further into export profits. In common
w
ith other academics and industrialists, Yoshikawa warns of the danger of
'ho
llowing-out' as lower-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere take up
productio
n of goods which have become too expensive to make in Japan. The
electronics
companies are already big producers in south-east Asia and car
makers have
been expanding their overseas operations.
'We must change the direction of e
ndeavour,' adds Yoshikawa, a specialist in
engineering design theory. He thi
nks industry should lean
towards more automation of services such as healthc
are and cleaning. He
talks of the need for greater 'amplification of service
s', with intelligent,
computer-controlled machines doing much of the awkward
and dirty work now
done by humans.
In other countries, where unemployment i
s high, this is less of an issue.
But Japan's unemployment rate is less than
3 per cent, kept low by the
tradition of lifetime employment and the high l
evel of consensus and
discipline in Japanese society. This is despite the re
cession after the
bursting of the 'bubble' economy of the late 1980s.
Japane
se companies already use robots far more widely than the rest of the
world.
In 1992, there were 350,000 robots in Japan, of which more than
280,000 were
advanced (operating in different axes, or with sensors or
learning controls
), according to latest statistics from the United Nations
and the Internatio
nal Federation of Robotics. This compared with 47,000
(42,000 advanced) in t
he US and 39,000 (35,500) in Germany.
The electronics industry is the bigges
t user of robots in Japan, followed by
cars. But the advanced applications e
nvisaged by Asakawa, Yoshikawa and
others are still at the pilot stage. The
Ministry of International Trade and
Industry supports some of them. Work is
progessing on robots to take the
backache out of nurses' lifting work and on
micromachines to help doctors
operate and even to carry tiny doses of medic
ine to certain parts of the
body.
The rubbish-collecting robots described by
Yoshikawa - he calls them 'social
robots' - are still at the basic research
stage. 'I can't say when they will
be ready. The direction of research is t
o invent new robotics for use on the
roads and streets of a city. I hope thi
s will be completed in five to 10
years.'
A programme to develop robots to e
nter the containment vessels of nuclear
power plants and carry out maintenan
ce work began in 1978, he says. The
first prototype was too heavy at 400kg.
Toshiba then made a more
sophisticated one, which was suitable for the work.
But power companies are
reluctant to rely on robots rather than humans for
work in which safety and
reliability is essential.
'My idea is first mainten
ance, then social and then home robots,' says
Yoshikawa. All these areas, he
feels, are ripe for 'amplification' through
intelligent automation. Ultimat
ely, the home could be the biggest market for
robots. But to do household cl
eaning and other work, they must be made of
softer materials than metal and
have more flexible gear systems to fit in
with the random pattern of life in
the home.
Yoshikawa says there are no prototypes of the home robot yet. But
he adds
that robot manufacturers such as Fuji Machine and Matsushita have s
hown
considerable interest. Asakawa says Fujitsu is also working on computer
programs for domestic use.
Thus, sometime around 2010, robots could be scur
rying around Japanese
streets, homes, offices and hospitals doing routine jo
bs and taking some of
the strain out of daily life.
Countries:-
JPZ Japan, Asia.
Industries:-
P3569 General
Industrial Machinery, NEC.
Types:-
CMMT Comment & Ana
lysis.
TECH Products & Product use.
MGMT Management & Marketing.
<
/TP>
The Financial Times
London Page 11
============= Transaction # 213 ==============================================
Transaction #: 213 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 6
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-138
_AN-BENBQACXFT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (3
): Cadcam market is expected to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by 1995 - Computer-Ai
ded Design, slower growth but healthy
By ANDREW BAXT
ER
THE world market for Cadcam
co
mputer-aided design and manufacturing equipment - may be slowing down, but
m
any users in manufacturing industry would give their eye teeth to match the
growth rates projected for suppliers over the next few years.
After the phen
omenal growth of the early 1980s, the industry is expanding at
rates of a me
re 10-14 per cent a year, depending on the sector. According to
Dataquest, t
he US market research company, the total Cadcam market was worth
Dollars 13.
9bn last year, but this is forecast to rise to Dollars 26.2bn by
1995.
Most
big Western manufacturing companies have Cadcam systems, although the
level
of maturity and sophistication varies from one country or industrial
sector
to another. While this means that some markets will see only
incremental gro
wth, there is little doubt that customers with successful
installations are
keen to come back and buy more.
Much of the growth in the next few years, th
erefore, will come from a
combination of new products and new applications t
o tempt long-standing
users, and new customers.
In the latter category some
UK machine tool companies, for example, are only
now replacing their draught
sman's tables with Cad systems, partly because
the cost of the hardware is f
alling but also because their clients demand
it. As with robotics, the use o
f Cadcam is spreading to smaller
manufacturing companies, and particularly t
he subcontractors in the
automotive and aerospace industries.
Mr Roger Smedl
ey, chairman of the UK engineering design company Ricardo
International, rem
arks that 10 years ago it was hard to spend more than
Pounds 1,000 per head
in capital on each employee's drawing board, desk and
chair.
Now, with some
computer screens costing up to Pounds 60,000 including
software, capital exp
enditure per head has rocketed, but an enormous number
of design companies h
ave gone out of business because they could not finance
a switch to computer
s or make it work, says Mr Smedley. Ricardo is spending
Pounds 1.5m a year o
n computers, while one of its rivals, Worthing-based
International Automotiv
e Design, has just ordered an Pounds 800,000 CADDS 4X
system from Computervi
sion, enhancing its ability to provide design, build
and prototyping service
s to big automotive manufacturers.
IAD has been a customer of Computervision
, one of the world's leading Cadcam
suppliers, for six years. Mr Mark Holmes
, a UK marketing consultant for
Computervision, notes that manufacturers suc
h as Rover and Ford are asking
their supplier companies to ensure their Cadc
am systems are compliant - a
trend that is being driven by the desire for co
ncurrent engineering (design
for manufacturing.)
Computervision, part of Pri
me Computer, is one of a handful of big players
in an industry which continu
es to see new niche products and companies
emerging, and thus boasts dozens
of companies with revenues so small that
they hardly register at all. Most o
f these are US companies, followed by
European groups, with Japan back in th
ird place.
Industry observers see a continuing role for the smaller companie
s, even if
sometimes it is only for their technology to be obtained by the l
arger
players, through an OEM arrangement or acquisition.
An example of the
latter was the acquisition by Computervision of
Massachusetts-based Premise,
whose technology extends Cadcam back to the
sketching, or back-of-an-envelo
pe stage in the creation of a design. This
process, known as conceptual engi
neering, is generating widespread interest
among manufacturers.
There have b
een takeovers of a different kind. The squeeze on margins in the
late 1980s,
caused by the rush into the market in the hope of fat profits,
has left sev
eral companies by the wayside.
The electronic design automation (EDA) sector
in particular experienced
particular turmoil during this period: Daisy Syst
ems bought Cadnetics in
1988 to form Dazix, but a heavy burden of debt led t
o its bankruptcy filing
in August. In January, the much stronger US company
Intergraph snapped up
Dazix for Dollars 14m.
If the established companies pl
ay their cards right, they ought to be able
to avoid Dazix's fate. There are
significant opportunities in many
geographic and product markets, and the b
ig suppliers with marketing muscle
are best placed to exploit them.
Mr Jim T
ully, Dataquest's UK Cadcam analyst, sees Europe maintaining its 35
per cent
share of the world market through to 1995. Germany is already the
biggest m
arket, but still offers the best growth potential because of
reunification.
Reconstruction, refitting of factories and a modernised power
network all of
fer scope for Cadcam sales.
Dataquest predicts the more mature US market wil
l see its share slip from 35
per cent in 1990 to 33 per cent in 1995, while
Asia will maintain its 28 per
cent share.
In product sectors, Mr Tully sees
the fastest growth in the geographic
information systems (GIS) sector, where
Intergraph is the undisputed leader.
'There's a great deal of interest in g
etting maps on to computer systems,'
he says.
The mechanical sector, which i
s by far the largest, is growing very slowly,
but even here there are opport
unities. In particular, users in this sector
are interested in so-called kno
wledge-based applications of Cadcam. An
example is a system developed by the
small US supplier Rasna, which will
design products such as car bumpers vir
tually automatically, minimising
weight and performing stress analysis on th
e basis of a few parameters and
criteria.
Two other trends look like becomin
g increasingly significant for the
industry. Until recently, most Cadcam sys
tems have been mutually
incompatible, and end-users wishing to change their
system have faced a
difficult and costly process. This, says Mr Tully, is ch
anging, because of
'frameworks,' a set of software facilities that allows th
ird-party Cadcam to
be integrated into a user's existing system, or a suppli
er's product line.
'The whole issue of opening the systems up is the key to
a lift to growth,'
he says.
Mr Holmes at Computervision sees another market
place opening up -
engineering data management.
Cadcam, he says, was a reaso
nably controlled environment in the early 1980s
with the host mainframes loo
king after files. But as engineering companies
have been forced to move more
quickly, it has become more important to find
where information resides in
a company.
Changing technology has meant that Cadcam is more likely to be ba
sed on a
workstation, leading to a proliferation of files, and the need for
EDM to
control data more closely.
There is probably no better way of assessi
ng the industry's prospects than
to examine new uses for Cadcam. At Boeing,
the introduction of a new
generation of Cad tools is aimed at eliminating th
e risk of design mistakes.
The lynch-pin is Catia, a three-dimensional Cad p
rogramme supplied by
Dassault Systems of France, which incorporates a new st
ress analysis system.
Linked to a network of IBM workstations and mainframes
, Catia will enable
Boeing's new 777 commercial jet to be the first designed
completely on
computer.
The Financial Times
Lond
on Page II
============= Transaction # 214 ==============================================
Transaction #: 214 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 7
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT911-135
_AN-BENBQAC0FT
91051
4
FT 14 MAY 91 / Survey of Computers in Manufacturing (6
): Fuzzy logic and robots spell technological advantage - Japan, modifying p
roduction philosophies as emphasis shifts back to the human workforce
By LORI VALIGRA
TOKYO
IT seemed laughable at the time: a couple years ago a Japanese manufa
cturer
replaced some factory line workers with automation machinery, then se
t up
full-sized cardboard human dummies to keep the remaining workers from
g
etting lonely.
The completely workerless factory is a decade away, but there
are a few
showcase examples including Fanuc, the machine tool manufacturer'
s factory
near Mount Fuji, where robots make robots. But until no-human fact
ories are
realised on a broad scale, factory automation system makers will f
ocus their
research on bridging the awkward interaction between humans and t
he ever
increasing number of machines working by their side.
In past years m
anufacturers put the emphasis on installing labour-saving
machines to raise
production. They focused on maximising the use of people,
money, time and ma
terials, and humans had to find a way to fit in with the
complex machinery b
eginning to surround them.
'Until now humans have had to adapt to use machin
es, so the man-machine
interface was not well matched,' says Mr Hiroshi Mats
uyama, a manager at
Omron the programmable controller maker in Tokyo.
'Japan
ese industry is now modifying its philosophy. The centre of production
has s
hifted to human workers, and computers should be matched with humans,'
he sa
ys. That means designing new software that allows production machinery
to be
more easily used and changed quickly for different jobs. For example,
weldi
ng or insertion and using artificial intelligence techniques such as
fuzzy l
ogic to help robots and computers make better decisions, such as
finding an
operational failure, through inferences, as humans do.
The escalating skille
d labour shortage, brought about by a declining birth
rate and a more afflue
nt and highly educated society, makes robots an
important component of facto
ry automation, a do-or-die decision for some
companies.
Strong competition i
n industries such as shipping has resulted in waves of
investment in labour-
saving technology such as steel and aluminium cutting
tools, processing mach
ines and welding robots. The rise in the labour force
is expected to be 0.8
per cent a year until 1993, then it is likely to fall
off by half to 0.4 per
cent until 2000, according to Japanese government
statistics. During that t
ime Japan expects to keep about a 4 per cent annual
economic growth rate.
'T
o achieve this it is necessary to introduce automation technology,' says
Mr
Kanji Yonemoto, vice-chairman of the Japan Industrial Robot Association
(Jir
a) in Tokyo. An even more remarkable shift in Japan's economy is the
switch
from a manufacturing to a service economy.
Jobs in services pay better. Mr Y
onemoto says there will be 1.5m fewer
blue-collar workers in manufacturing b
y 2000 than in 1989, when there was a
shortage of 715,800 people. Today's yo
ung people are a different breed of
worker from those who laboured long hour
s for little pay to build Japan's
industrial miracle.
They want to avoid so-
called '3K' work: 'kiken' (dangerous), 'kitanai'
(dirty) and 'kitsui' (hard)
. 'Older men were very patient and had the
Bushido (warrior) morale, but it
is hard to find these people today,' says
Mr Matsuyama.
Replacing them with
machinery takes time and money. Omron, which produces
programmable controlle
rs and other electronics products, sees the
improvements that can be made in
factory automation as almost limitless and
including diagnosing system fail
ures and other management tasks.
The improvements span a broad factory autom
ation market valued at almost
Y2,000bn and covering every aspect of making a
product from design through
production and inspection. The important compon
ents of automating a factory
are numerical controllers, the largest chunk of
the market, as well as
computer-aided design and manufacturing software and
equipment, industrial
robots, programmable controllers, automated warehouse
s, computers and
automatic guided vehicles that transport products throughou
t a plant site.
Japan leads the world in both producing and using these prod
uction
components. It has replaced Germany as the biggest exporter of machin
e
tools, an important indicator of industrial development and economic power
.
Japan has an estimated 23 per cent of the world market compared to the 16
per cent held by Germany.
Five Japanese companies are making machine tools i
n Europe. Mazak Yamazaki,
for example, has a Dollars 50m factory in Worceste
r, in the UK which
produces some 100 computer-controlled machines a month, a
ccording to
industry estimates. Japan's worldwide share of the fast-growing
robot market
is even more impressive: it has 57.5 per cent of the robot inst
allations
worldwide, with western Europe having 14.5 per cent and the US 9.5
per cent.
Japan's main advantages are that workers in automotive, electroni
cs and
other factories are accustomed to and readily accept automation techn
ology,
product demand is still strong in the home market, and Japanese
manuf
acturers make most of the machines they use for automation, so there is
litt
le competition from imports.
The electronics industry is the biggest user of
automation technology. At
its Ome design and manufacturing works west of To
kyo, Toshiba uses its own
laptop computers for design, development and assem
bly of new Toshiba
laptops.
The laptops are used to compute how easily a new
computer model can be
assembled by a line of 12 workers, who can slap toget
her one notebook-size
Dynabook computer in a few minutes. That's important,
because the company is
making about 1m laptops a year at Ome, and the life s
pan of each new product
is getting increasingly shorter amid hot competition
.
'Often it's the case with some products that the effective life span is
al
ready over by the time it goes to the market place,' says Mr Masao Suga,
who
heads the personal computer research and development department at Ome.
How
ever, the shortening product life spans, which run from six months for a
Jap
anese word processor to about three years for laptops, made it
increasingly
difficult for Toshiba to continue using robots. Toshiba
replicates about 70
per cent of design work from current models in new ones.
While it took Toshi
ba three years to develop the T3100 and J3100 laptops
from scratch, it took
only nine months to design the smaller-size Dynabook.
Though its factory is
about 70-80 per cent automated, visitors to the
company often comment about
the number of people still present on the
manufacturing lines, but Mr Suga s
ays that with the fast-paced product life
cycles, humans are needed. 'There
are problems with automated systems. They
can't catch up with new technology
, so humans are acting as universal super
robots,' he adds.
Fuzzy logic may
help close the gap. Mr Yonemoto of Jira says fuzzy logic,
software that can
help make a decision from unclear information, will help
increase the versat
ility of robots in the future by affording better control
of their movements
. Omron, a leader in using fuzzy technology, has developed
a test robot that
can grasp soft or fragile items, such as tofu (bean curd).
In a New Year's
address to employees, Mr Yoshio Tateisi, company president,
identified fuzzy
logic as an important research area for the 1990s. By 1994,
more than 20 pe
r cent of Omron's product line will include some type of
fuzzy logic. Accord
ing to Mr Matsuyama, fuzzy logic has many benefits. As
part of a computer-in
tegrated manufacturing (Cim) system it can be used in
production and in mana
ging the company.
'Another merit of fuzzy technology is to replace a person
where computers
are hard to use, for example, controlling a nuclear power ge
neration plant's
circulation control system to clean water and to make decis
ions. Perhaps the
Chernobyl or Mihama plant accidents could have been avoide
d with these
systems,' he says.
Fuzzy logic, along with more flexible robots
and other components, spell
another technological advantage for Japan in th
e future: being able to
change small-scale production quickly, so that multi
ple products can be
produced on the same factory line in one day. Mr Matsuya
ma predicts Japanese
manufacturers will become very good at this small-scale
production, which is
a difficult technology demanding ultimate flexibility.
Computerisation would be all the more necessary in production in the sense
that market information should be more effectively connected with the
produc
tion process or with the factory itself. But large-scale flexible
production
without man will take 8-10 years says Matsushita Electric in
Osaka.
The com
pany believes fuzzy logic, along with neurocomputing technology which
more c
losely mimics the human brain, will be the main technologies once they
are r
efined.
The Financial Times
London Page IV
============= Transaction # 215 ==============================================
Transaction #: 215 Transaction Code: 22 (Record(s) Saved)
Terminal ID: 57943 Z39.50 Server ID: 19 (TREC)
Session ID: 2 New Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Old Z39.50 Server ID: 0 (Astro/Math/Stat)
Usr Interface: Prob Time Cmd Sent: 16:00:00
Rec. Format: Short Time Cmd Complete: 15:34:33
Selec. Rec. #: 8
Boolean Indexes Used:
0 Author 0 Date 0 Rectype 0 X_Corp Author 0 Call #
0 Title 0 Language 0 X_Author 0 Uniform Title
0 Subject 0 ISBN 0 X_Title 0 X_Subject
0 Organization 0 LCCN 0 Topic 0 Host Item
0 Series 0 ISSN 0 Keyword 0 Conf
Boolean Conjunctions:
Button 1: and Button 2: OR Button 3: or
Used?: No Used?: No Used?: No
# Keywords: 0 Error Code: 0
# Hits: 0 Help Code: 0
# Displayed: 0 Help ID: 0
Associated Variable Length Text:
FT943-8066
_AN-EHSD0AB7FT
9408
19
FT 19 AUG 94 / Technology: Electronic minds over matt
er - Neural networks will soon extend into almost every area of industry and
science
By ANDREW FISHER
Ever sinc
e science fiction writers began describing their visions of the
future, the
idea of machines that can think has fascinated and disturbed
people. Today's
computers, however impressive their calculating and
processing power, are f
ar from being electronic brains. But systems designed
to mimic the brain and
recognise patterns in vast amounts of data are
penetrating deeply into the
practical world.
Called neural networks, they derive from research work firs
t carried out in
the 1940s. It was only around the mid-1980s, however, that
the technology
came within reach of commercial users. Applications now range
from the
monitoring and control of industrial processes, such as steelmakin
g, brewing
or the manufacture of chemicals, to predicting the behaviour of f
inancial
markets and trends in consumer demand.
Because of their complexity
and the very term neural networks - which tends
to conjure up the image of a
mysterious 'black box' to many businessmen -
such systems have met with sce
pticism as well as approval. Some specialists
prefer not to use the words wh
en talking to customers.
'We find it generates a lot of initial interest if
we say 'neural network','
says Richard Hoptroff, managing director of London
-based Right Information
Systems, which produces software for commercial use
at prices ranging from
Pounds 7,900. 'But then people believe it's a black
box. Yet it's a bundle
of equations like any other method.'
These equations
are the building blocks for non-linear systems based on
neurons in the human
brain. Since the brain contains about 100bn neurons
(nerve cells) linked in
a network of myriad connections, it can absorb and
memorise information and
images from all the senses in a way computers
cannot possibly match. Neural
networks have only a few hundred or thousand
neurons (or processing units).
These are put together in layers, usually three, although more can be used
in highly advanced systems, and the computers 'learn' by being provided with
examples. Information is then passed through the layers to provide answers
to problems which would defy conventional computers - built for high-speed
c
alculating rather than selecting patterns from a confusing mass of data -
an
d require far more speed in comprehension and analysis than the human
brain
can supply.
Neural networks do not, however, provide all-purpose solutions t
o tricky
problems. Their value depends on the data with which they are fed a
nd how
effectively the results are used. 'It's not a technology that sweeps
everything out of the way,' says Ray Browne, head of the neural computing
pr
ogramme at the UK's Department of Trade and Industry. 'It's another tool
in
the toolbox.'
The use of this tool is growing rapidly, according to Frost &
Sullivan, the
US market research company. Up to 1998, the world neural netwo
rk market is
expected to expand at a compound rate of 46 per cent a year. Ov
er this
decade, it said in a report, 'neural networks will permeate almost e
very
area of business, industry and science'. Mostly, they will be integrate
d
with other applications or systems. 'Neural networks will enable
breakthro
ughs in such areas as continuous speech recognition, handwritten
character r
ecognition, and autonomous vehicles or robots.'
As well as big names in the
electronics industry such as IBM, Fujitsu, NEC,
Hitachi and Intel, a host of
smaller, specialised companies are working on
neural computers and applicat
ions. In many cases, neural networks are
combined with other types of comput
er technology such as genetic algorithms
(copying biological mechanisms to p
roduce evolving solutions) and rule
induction systems (generating rules for
specific tasks).
In Japan, Fujitsu has developed hybrid systems using fuzzy
logic to help
deal with imprecise data. One such neural fuzzy system has bee
n used to
build up a bond rating programme for Nikko Securities. Fujitsu als
o produced
a neural network system for Nikko to predict the best times to bu
y and sell
Tokyo-quoted stocks.
Both systems yielded a high degree of accura
cy. Because of the extra
analytical dimension provided by neural networks, m
any banks and financial
institutions use them as aids to bond, foreign excha
nge and equity trading
as well as for more basic tasks such as credit-checki
ng, fraud detection and
mortgage evaluation.
Thus much of the recent emphasi
s has been on applications in finance,
although many bankers are hesitant ab
out entrusting large sums of money to
the judgments of a computer. Since it
is very hard to work out why a neural
network comes up with a particular ans
wer or recommendation, this wariness
is not easily dispelled. Also, new fact
ors can come into play which have not
been put into the system.
Even so, fin
ancial applications will continue to play an important role in
this market.
Frost & Sullivan expects them to account for 23 per cent of the
worldwide ne
ural network business in 1998 (against 20 per cent in 1990), by
which time t
he total market should exceed Dollars 2bn (Pounds 1.3bn).
Industrial uses sh
ould make up 24 per cent (also 20 per cent in 1990), with
the defence share
falling from 39 per cent to 21 per cent. Among other
applications, the medic
al sector is likely to be in the forefront with 7 per
cent.
Among the most p
romising fields for neural network technology are retailing
and market resea
rch. As in banking, those with successful systems tend not
to want to talk a
bout them. But Paul Freeman, UK-based manager of market
modelling for Kraft
General Foods of the US, says neural networks can be of
tremendous use in he
lping decide on the timing of commodity purchases and
the pricing and market
ing of products. 'We build models of things like the
way in which weather in
Germany affects chocolate sales there or the impact
of coffee prices on con
sumption.'
The results of these modelling exercises, combined with other typ
es of
statistical analysis, are used widely in the group. The latest world c
offee
price increases have clearly changed the outlook for Kraft's brands. '
In
coffee pricing,' adds Freeman, 'a very very small percentage error can be
very expensive.' Using historical data, Kraft can work out how past price
g
yrations affected demand and feed this into its neural network models.
On a
narrower front, Radio Rentals uses a neural system devised by Central
Resear
ch Laboratories - both are owned by Thorn EMI of the UK - to ensure
greater
accuracy in targeting customers for special campaigns. By analysing
customer
records, lifestyle and the age of the equipment, it detects which
people ar
e likely to end their hire contracts for televisions and other
goods and whi
ch are likely to respond to promotions.
This has led to considerable savings
on mailing costs. 'If you're going to
look at market data analysis and see
how to earn money, you have to
recognise that some improvements can result i
n a heck of a lot of money,'
says Jeremy Severwright, business development m
anager at CRL's advanced
computing solutions group. 'Sometimes this shows th
rough very quickly.'
Banks, book clubs and mail order companies are among us
ers who can extract
more profit from customers by using neural network techn
iques.
But these can also be put to more heavyweight uses. One of Fujitsu's
earliest systems was developed for Nippon Steel to prevent failures in the
c
ontinuous casting process. Kazuo Asakawa, manager of Fujitsu's intelligent
s
ystems laboratory, foresees the day, some years hence, when neural networks
will combine with arrays of sensors to control a new generation of
self-lear
ning robots for the office and home.
Currently, however, neural network expe
rts are preoccupied with the more
basic concern that industry should adopt t
he technology more widely.
'Industry is not as aware as it should be,' says
Suran Goonatilake, a
research fellow at University College London. In Britai
n, the DTI has been
spreading the message through its awareness programme wh
ich has spawned a
number of applications clubs. So although the US and Japan
still have the
lead in this area, European countries are catching up quickl
y.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
F
orecast growth in neural networks market
Revenue Growth Rate (%)
----------
------------------------------------------------------------
1988 89
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
na 22.7 31.7 41.
4 52.6 58.8 53.7 47.0 40.0 36.3 37.7
-------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Source: Frost & Sullivan
----------
------------------------------------------------------------
Co
untries:-
XAZ World.
Industries:-
P3571 Elec
tronic Computers.
P7372 Prepackaged Software.
Types:-
<
TP>TECH Products & Product use.
CMMT Comment & Analysis.
MKTS Mar
ket shares.
The Financial Times
London Page 10